All right. I did this, I think, two years ago, for the first time. It was one of those random ideas I had while thinking up articles, and since I was basically unemployed at the time, had nothing else to do and had a lot of free time on my hands, I wrote it up. I wrote up a lot of articles that year.
But essentially what it was — I love random statistics, and have a real love/hate relationship with them. As in, I don’t always buy into statistics as the be-all, end-all way to figure something out. After a while, it just comes down to gut feeling and intangibles, and all that immeasurable stuff you just can’t calculate. But, on the other hand, they are fun, and when they work out, they are things you can point to, like, “Well, I mean, look at the numbers.”
Anyway, the idea I got was — “If we listed all the nominees in the major categories, how many times has each position won?” You have your Best Picture list every year. How many times has the first alphabetical film won? How many times has the last alphabetical film won? And so on.
It means nothing. Absolutely nothing. But, I love statistics, so I did it, and I keep doing it. Because it’s fun. And I’m doing it again today.
All right, so, like I said, the way this works — we list every nominee in order, as well as the amount of times that position has won. And then we look at what the statistics say is most likely to win the award. It’s fun.
(I’m sparing everyone the reason I’m doing this. I tell that story every year, and I hate feeling like I’m repeating myself over and over, so I’ll just get right into it. Read the last few articles of me doing this to see why I’m doing it.)
We start with Best Picture:
Best Picture
#1 — 22 times
#2 — 13 times
#3 — 15 times
#4 — 15 times
#5 — 15 times
#6 — 1 time
#7 — Never
#8 — 2 times
#9 — Never
#10 — 2 times
Of course, from 1944-2008, there were only five nominees, along with a few other years in between (1928-1929, 1929-1930, 1930-1931 come to mind). So the numbers are obviously skewed toward #1-#5. Making this even more obviously a statistic you don’t want to use to predict anything. And then for a few years in the 30s, there were 12 nominees. Fortunately #11 or #12 didn’t win any of those times.
But, as you can see, the first alphabetical nominee has somehow won more times than not.
And for those who like to keep track of these things — last year, Argo was #2 (Amour was #1). The Artist was #1, though.
And also, the two #10s were You Can’t Take It With You and, surprisingly, Rebecca.
The #6 was The Life of Emile Zola.
The #8s were Mutiny on the Bounty and, even more surprisingly, It Happened One Night. The other fun bit of trivia there being that those were the only two years where there were 12 nominees.
So, that means, outside of 1934, 1935, 1937, 1938 and 1940, every other time, the Best Picture winner has been one of the top five alphabetical nominees.
Again, though, outside of those years, there were only 11 more years with more than five nominees. 1931-1932 had 8 nominees, and then 1932-1933, 1936, 1939, 1941, 1942, 1943, 2009 and 2010 had 10 nominees, and 2011 and 2012 had 9 nominees. So there were a limited amount of years for which a #6-#10 could have won. Even so, I mean, they still somehow stay within that first five range. That is 11 out of 16 times.
Also, interesting that no film has ever won out of the 7 or 9 spot.
But anyway, this year, the nominees are:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
So, statistically, the films that should win are:
1. American Hustle
2. (tie) Dallas Buyers Club
3. (tie) Gravity
4. (tie) Her
5. Captain Phillips
6. 12 Years a Slave
7. Nebraska
8. (tie) Philomena
9. (tie) The Wolf of Wall Street
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Interesting that American Hustle is #1. If that happens, it’ll fit right in line with the statistics.
Gravity is the other of the two major contenders that fits right in line with the statistics. It’s #4.
And the other contender is 12 Years a Slave, since nobody thinks any other film can win. Which would be interesting that it would be out of the 8 spot, which has won twice before.
So it seems like this year, either #1 will continue its dominance, #4 will break the three-way tie and move into second place, or #8 will get another tally on the board and become the highest tallying winner outside of 1-5.
And honestly, based on how I feel the Academy is going to go (based on their age and temperament), I think we might be looking at a #1 or #4.
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Onto Best Actor…
Best Actor
#1 – 23 times
#2 – 22 times
#3 – 18 times
#4 – 9 times
#5 – 14 times
This is a list that almost always only had five nominees, so the statistics are more even and easier to figure. All the acting categories are like that.
Here, again, #1 always seems to win, though #2 is right on its tail. (We can thank Daniel Day-Lewis for closing that gap last year.)
Interesting how #4 never seems to win.
Out of curiosity, let’s see who those #4s were, because there are so few of them:
Laurence Olivier (Hamlet, 1948), William Holden (Stalag 17, 1953), Rod Steiger (In the Heat of the Night, 1967), Robert Duvall (Tender Mercies, 1983), Paul Newman (The Color of Money, 1986), Geoffrey Rush (Shine, 1996), Kevin Spacey (American Beauty, 1999), Denzel Washington (Training Day, 2001), Colin Firth (The King’s Speech, 2010)
That’s it. No real reason. I was just curious.
Anyway, this year’s nominees are:
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
So, statistically…
1. Christian Bale
2. Bruce Dern
3. Leonardo DiCaprio
4. Matthew McConaughey
5. Chiwetel Ejiofor
- – - – -
I think we can all agree that McConaughey is winning this. So he’ll be another notch for the five spot. The only upset choice here, at this point, seems to be DiCaprio, and I don’t think any of us believe that’s happening.
So #5 should pick up a tally with this one.
- – - – -
Best Actress
#1 – 18 times
#2 – 22 times
#3 – 13 times
#4 – 15 times
#5 – 16 times
#6 – 1 time
Pretty evenly matched, all around.
The #6 is Mary Pickford. It’s a legit #6, too. A lot of times back then, actors and actresses were nominated for multiple performances (Garbo was nominated twice once, George Arliss was nominated for two films and won for one of them). But this year, it’s straight six, one performance each, no funny business. And Pickford is the #6. So she’s the lone person to win outside of 1-5 in any of the acting categories.
But yeah, somehow, #2 always seems to win here more than the others. Jennifer Lawrence was a #2 last year.
This year’s nominees are:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
So, statistically…
- Cate Blanchett
- Meryl Streep
- Amy Adams
- Judi Dench
- Sandra Bullock
- – - – -
The statistics should work out on this one. Blanchett seems like a lock at this point.
So #2 maintains its dominance, it seems.
And it’s one of those instances where I can go, “Hey look — they work!”
But there’s not much more to say here. She should win.
- – - – -
Best Supporting Actor
#1 – 18 times
#2 – 17 times
#3 – 13 times
#4 – 18 times
#5 – 10 times
#5 is really pulling up the rear here.
Let’s see who they were, for the hell of it.
Honestly, let’s not. Who cares? We can’t read into it, and that’s half the fun in these things.
Actually, Christoph Waltz was a #5 last year.
And in 2009, when he won.
Christoph Waltz is literally 20% of the #5 tallies in this category.
This year’s nominees are:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Statistically…
1. (tie) Barkhad Abdi,
2. (tie) Jonah Hill
3. Bradley Cooper
4. Michael Fassbender
5. Jared Leto
- – - – -
#5 is on a roll.
We’re all thinking Leto is gonna win this, even though it’s definitely not a sure thing yet.
So it seems like #5 might end up pulling another step closer to the pack.
Otherwise, who else upsets Leto? Not Abdi, so #1 won’t pull ahead in the standings. Cooper shouldn’t win, so #2 won’t pull into a first place tie. Fassbender possibly, but I doubt it. So #3 will still be treading water. Jonah Hill seems like the only possibility, but even then, it feels like a long shot. But if he does, he takes #4 into first place with him. So that’s on the table.
But I’m thinking #5 pulls out another win here.
- – - – -
Best Supporting Actress
#1 – 11 times
#2 – 15 times
#3 – 18 times
#4 – 15 times
#5 – 17 times
Very evenly matched.
We had two ties here last year. But Anne Hathaway’s win pulled #3 into first place.
Maybe this year we’ll break that other tie?
Let’s see…
This year’s nominees are:
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Statistically…
1. Lupita Nyong’o
2. June Squibb
3. (tie) Jennifer Lawrence
4. (tie) Julia Roberts
5. Sally Hawkins
- – - – -
Sally Hawkins is your #5, so that makes sense.
Julia is basically your #4, so that also makes sense.
It’s basically Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence. And with all the guild wins, we’re assuming Nyong’o wins this. Which would mean #3 solidly pulls into first place in this category.
Otherwise, if Lawrence wins, then the other tie is broken, and #2 moves into third place and right in the mix for #1 in the future.
But I’m thinking #3 takes it and solidifies its lead.
- – - – -
Best Director
#1 – 23 times
#2 – 14 times
#3 – 14 times
#4 – 19 times
#5 – 15 times
There’s that #1 again.
Last year, Ang Lee was a #2, and brought that into a tie with #3, and one behind #5 for third place.
This year’s nominees are:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Statistically…
1. Alfonso Cuaron
2. David O. Russell
3. Martin Scorsese
4. (tie) Steve McQueen
5. (tie) Alexander Payne
- – - – -
I think we all figure Cuaron is winning, which will solidify the #1 lead.
If it’s not Payne than it’s McQueen or Russell. I’m thinking more so Russell. Who is statistically second most likely to win. So it looks like the statistics will hold up here.
Unless McQueen wins, and #2 continues to roll along.
But I think Cuaron has this.
- – - – - – - – - -
So those are the Oscars by statistics.
It’s pretty meaningless, but I enjoy it.
And look at that, we got an article out of it.
Tomorrow, I’m going to go over my favorite scores of 2013, and then we’ll start the Oscar category breakdowns.
