Oscars 2016 Category Breakdown: Best Original Score

Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.

What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.

Today is Best Original Score. All that music and shit.

Year	Best Original Score Winners	Other Nominees
1934	*One Night of Love*	*The Gay Divorcee* *The Lost Patrol*
1935	*The Informer*	*Captain Blood* *Mutiny on the Bounty* *Peter Ibbetson*
1936	*Anthony Adverse*	*The Charge of the Light Brigade* *The Garden of Allah* *The General Died at Dawn* *Winterset*
1937	*One Hundred Men and a Girl*	*The Hurricane* *In Old Chicago* *The Life of Emile Zola* *Lost Horizon* *Make a Wish* *Maytime* *Portia on Trial* *The Prisoner of Zenda* *Quality Street* *Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs* *Something to Sing About* *Souls at Sea* *Way Out West*
1938	*The Adventures of Robin Hood*	*Army Girl* *Block-Heads* *Blockade* *Breaking the Ice* *The Cowboy and the Lady* *If I Were King* *Marie Antoinette* *Pacific Liner* *Suez* *The Young in Heart*
1939	Original: *The Wizard of Oz* Scoring: *Stagecoach*	Original: *Dark Victory* *Eternally Yours* *Golden Boy* *Gone With the Wins* *Gulliver’s Travels* *The Man in the Iron Mask* *Man of Conquest* *Mr. Smith Goes to Washington* *Nurse Edith Cavell* *Of Mice and Men* *The Rains Came* *Wuthering Heights* Scoring: *Babes in Arms*
1940	Original Score: *Pinocchio* Scoring: *Tin Pan Alley*	Original Score: *Arizona* *The Dark Command* *The Fight for Life* *The Great Dictator* *The Howards of Virginia* *The Letter* *The Long Voyage Home* *The Mark of Zorro* *My Favorite Wife* *North West Mounted Police* *One Million B.C.* *Our Town* *Rebecca* *The Thief of Bagdad* *Waterloo Bridge* Scoring: *Arise, My Love* *Hit Parade of 1941* *Irene* *Our Town* *The Sea Hawk* *Second Chorus* *Spring Parade* *Strike Up the Band*
1941	Dramatic: *The Devil and Daniel Webster* Musical: *Dumbo*	Dramatic: *Back Street* *Ball of Fire* *Cheers for Miss Bishop* *Citizen Kane* *Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde* *Hold Back the Dawn* *How Green Was My Valley* *King of the Zombies* *Ladies in Retirement* *The Little Foxes* *Lydia* *Mercy Island* *Sergeant York* *So Ends Our Night* *Sundown* *Suspicion* *Tanks a Million* *That Uncertain Feeling* *This Woman is Mine* Musical: *All-American Co-Ed* *Birth of the Blues* *Buck Privates* *The Chocolate Soldier* *Ice-Capades* *The Strawberry Blonde* *Sun Valley Serenade* *Sunny* *You’ll Never Get Rich*
1942	Dramatic or Comedy: *Now, Voyager* Musical: *Yankee Doodle Dandy*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Arabian Knights* *Bambi* *The Black Swan* *The Corsican Brothers* *Flying Tigers* *The Gold Rush* *I Married a Witch* *Joan of Paris* *Jungle Book* *Klondike Fury* *The Pride of the Yankees* *Random Harvest* *The Shanghai Gesture* *Silver Queen* *Take a Letter, Darling* *The Talk of the town* *To Be or Not to Be* Musical: *Flying with Music* *For Me and My Gal* *Holiday Inn* *It Started with Eve* *Johnny Doughboy* *My Gal Sal* *You Were Never Lovelier*
1943	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Song of Bernadette* Musical: *This Is the Army*	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Amazing Mrs. Holliday* *Casablanca* *Commandos Strike at Dawn* *The Fallen Sparrow* *For Whom the Bell Tolls* *Hangmen Also Die* *Hi Diddle Diddle* *In Old Oklahoma* *Johnny Come Lately* *The Kansan* *Lady of Burlseque* *Madame Curie* *The Moon and Sixpence* *The North Star* *Victory Through Air Power* Musical: *Coney Island* *Hit Parade of 1943* *Phantom o the Opera* *Saludos Amigos* *The Sky’s the Limit* *Something to Shout About* *Stage Door Canteen* *Star Spangled Rhythm* *Thousands Cheer*
1944	Dramatic or Comedy: *Since You Went Away* Musical: *Cover Girl*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Address Unknown* *The Adventures of Mark Twain* *The Bridge of San Luis Rey* *Casanova Brown* *Christmas Holiday* *Double Indemnity* *The Fighting Seabees* *The Hairy Ape* *It Happened Tomorrow* *Jack London* *Kismet* *None but the Lonely Heart* *The Princess and the Pirate* *Summer Storm* *Three Russian Girls* *Up in Mabel’s Room* *Voice in the Wind* *Wilson* *Woman of the Town* Musical: *Brazil* *Higher and Higher* *Hollywood Canteen* *Irish Eyes Are Smiling* *Knickerbocker Holiday* *Lady in the Dark* *Lady, Let’s Dance* *Meet Me in St. Louis* *The Merry Monahans* *Minstrel Man* *Sensations of 1945* *Song o the Open Road* *Up in Arms*
1945	Dramatic or Comedy: *Spellbound* Musical: *Anchors Aweigh*	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Bells of St. Mary’s* *Brewster’s Millions* *Captain Kidd* *The Enchanted Cottage* *Flame of Barbary Coast* *G.I. Honeymoon* *The Story of G.I. Joe* *Guest in the House* *Guest Wife* *The Keys of the Kingdom* *The Lost Weekend* *Love Letters* *The Man Who Walked Alone* *Objective, Burma!* *Paris-Underground* *A Song to Remember* *The Southerner* *This Love of Ours* *The Valley of Decision* *The Woman in the Window* Musical: *Belle of the Yukon* *Can’t Help Singing* *Hitchhike to Happiness* *Incendiary Blonde* *Rhapsody in Blue* *State Fair* *Sunbonnet Sue* *The Three Caballeros* *Tonight and Every night* *Why Girls Leave Home* *Wonder Man*
1946	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Best Years of Our Lives* Musical: *The Jolson Story*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Anna and the King of Siam* *Henry V* *Humoresque* *The Killers* Musical: *Blue Skies* *Centennial Summer* *The Harvey Girls* *Night and Day*
1947	Dramatic or Comedy: *A Double Life* Musical: *Mother Wore Tights*	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Bishop’s Wife* *Captain from Castile* *Forever Amber* *Life with Father* Musical: *Fiesta* *My Wild Irish Rose* *Road to Rio* *Song of the South*
1948	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Red Shoes* Musical: *Easter Parade*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Hamlet* *Joan of Arc* *Johnny Belinda* *The Snake Pit* Musical: *The Emperor Waltz* *The Pirate* *Romance on the High Seas* *When My Baby Smiles at Me*
1949	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Heiress* Musical: *On the Town*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Beyond the Forest* *Champion* Musical: *Jolson Sings Again* *Look for the Silver Lining*
1950	Dramatic or Comedy: *Sunset Boulevard* Musical: *Annie Get Your Gun*	Dramatic or Comedy: *All About Eve* *The Flame and the Arros* *No Sad Songs for Me* *Samson and Delilah* Musical: *Cinderella* *I’ll Get By* *Three Little Words* *The West Point Story*
1951	Dramatic or Comedy: *A Place in the Sun* Musical: *An American in Paris*	Dramatic or Comedy: *David and Bathsheba* *Death of a Salesman* *Quo Vadis* *A Streetcar Named Desire* Musical: *Alice in Wonderland* *The Great Caruso* *On the Riviera* *Show Boat*
1952	Dramatic or Comedy: *High Noon* Musical: *With a Song in My Heart*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Ivanhoe* *The Miracle of Oour Lady of Fantima* *The Thief* *Viva Zapata!* Musical: *Hans Christian Anderson* *The Jazz Singer* *The Medium* *Singin’ in the Rain*
1953	Dramatic or Comedy: *Lili* Musical: *Call Me Madam*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Above and Beyond* *From Here to Eternity* *Julius Caesar* *This is Cinerama* Musical: *The Band Wagon* *Calamity Jane* *The 5,000 Fingers of Dr. T* *Kiss Me Kate*
1954	Dramatic or Comedy: *The High and the Mighty* Musical: *Seven Brides for Seven Brothers*	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Caine Mutiny* *Genevieve* *On the Waterfront* *The Silver Chalice* Musical: *Carmen Jones* *The Glenn Miller Story* *A Star is Born* *There’s No Business Like Show Business*
1955	Dramatic or Comedy: *Love is a Many-Splendored Thing* Musical: *Oklahoma!*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Battle Cry* *The Man with the Golden Arm* *Picnic* *The Rose Tattoo* Musical: *Daddy Long Legs* *Guys and Dolls* *It’s Always Fair Weather* *Love Me or Leave Me*
1956	Dramatic or Comedy: *Around the World in 80 Days* Musical: *The King and I*	Dramatic or Comedy: *Anastasia* *Between Heaven and Hell* *Giant* *The Rainmaer* Musical: *The Best Things in Life Are Free* *The Eddy Duchin Story* *High Society* *Meet Me in Las Vegas*
1957	*The Bridge on the River Kwai*	*An Affair to Remember* *Boy on a Dolphin* *Perri* *Raintree County*
1958	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Old Man and the Sea* Musical: *Gigi*	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Big Country* *Separate Tables* *White Wilderness* *The Young Lions* Musical: *The Bolshoi Ballet* *Damn Tankees* *Mardi Gras* *South Pacific*
1959	Dramatic or Comedy: *Ben-Hur* Musical: *Porgy and Bess*	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Diary of Anne Frank* *The Nun’s Story* *On the Beach* *Pillow Talk* Musical: *The Five Pennies* *Li’l Abner* *Say One for Me* *Sleeping Beauty*
1960	Dramatic or Comedy: *Exodus* Musical: *Song without End (The Story of Franz Liszt)*	Dramatic or Comedy: *The Alamo* *Elmer Gantry* *The Magnificent Seven* *Spartacus* Musical: *Bells Are Ringing* *Can-Can* *Let’s Make Love* *Pepe*
1961	Dramatic or Comedy: *Breakfast at Tiffany’s* Musical: *West Side Story*	Dramatic or Comedy: *El Cid* *Fanny* *The Guns of Navarone* *Summer and Smoke* Musical: *Babes in Toyland* *Flower Drum Song* *Khovanshchina* *Paris Blues*
1962	Original: *Lawrence of Arabia* Music-adaptation or treatment: *The Music Man*	Original: *Freud* *Mutiny on the Bounty* *Taras Bulba* *To Kill a Mockingbird* Music-adaptation or treatment: *Billy Rose’s Jumbo* *Gigot* *Gypsy* *The Wonderful World of the Brothers Grimm*
1963	Original: *Tom Jones* Music-adaptation or treatment: *Irma la Douce*	Original: *Cleopatra* *55 Days at Peking* *How the West Was Won* *It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World* Music-adaptation or treatment: *Bye Bye Birdie* *A New Kind of Love* *Sundays and Cybele* *The Sword in the Stone*
1964	Original: *Mary Poppins* Music-adaptation or treatment: *My Fair Lady*	Original: *Becket* *The Fall of the Roman Empire* *Hugh… Hush, Sweet Charlotte* *The Pink Panther* Music-adaptation or treatment: *A Hard Day’s Night* *Mary Poppins* *Robin and the 7 Hoods* *The Unsinkable Molly Brown*
1965	Original: *Doctor Zhivago* Music-adaptation or treatment: *The Sound of Music*	Original: *The Agony and the Ecstasy* *The Greatest Story Ever Told* *A Patch of Blue* *The Umbrellas of Cherbourg* Music-adaptation or treatment: *Cat Ballou* *The Pleasure Seekers* *A Thousand Clowns* *The Umbrellas of Cherbourg*
1966	Original: *Born Free* Music-adaptation or treatment: *A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum*	Original: *The Bible: In the Beginning* *Hawaii* *The Sand Pebbles* *Who’s Afraid of the Virginia Woolf?* Music-adaptation or treatment: *The Gospel According to St. Matthew* *Return of the Seven* *The Singing Nun* *Stop the World – I Want to Get Off*
1967	Original: *Thoroughly Modern Millie* Music-adaptation or treatment: *Camelot*	Original: *Cool Hand Luke* *Doctor Dolittle* *Far from the Madding Crowd* *In Cold Blood* Music-adaptation or treatment: *Doctor Dolittle* *Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner* *Thoroughly Modern Millie* *Valley of the Dolls*
1968	Original: *The Lion in Winter* Musical: *Oliver!*	Original: *The Fox* *Planet of the Apes* *The Shoes of the Fisherman* *The Thomas Crown Affair* Musical: *Finian’s Rainbow* *Funny Girl* *Star!* *The Young Girls of Rochefort*
1969	Original: *Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid* Musical: *Hello, Dolly!*	Original: *Anne of the Thousand Days* *The Reivers* *The Secret of Santa Vittoria* *The Wild Bunch* Musical: *Goodbye, Mr. Chips* *Paint Your Wagon* *Sweet Charity* *They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?*
1970	Original: *Love Story* Original Song Score: *Let It Be*	Original: *Airport* *Cromwell* *Patton* *I Girasoli* Original Song Score: *The Baby Maker* *A Boy Named Charlie Brown* *Darling Lili* *Scrooge*
1971	Dramatic: *Summer of ‘42* Song Score and Adaptation: *Fiddler on the Roof*	Dramatic: *Mary, Queen of Scots* *Nicholas and Alexandra* *Shaft* *Straw Dogs* Song Score and Adaptation: *Bedknobs and Broomsticks* *The Boy Friend* *Tchaikovsky* *Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory*
1972	Dramatic: *Limelight* Song Score and Adaptation: *Cabaret*	Dramatic: *The Godfather* (nomination withdrawn) *Images* *Napoleon and Samantha* *The Poseidon Adventure* *Sleuth* Song Score and Adaptation: *Lady Sings the Blues* *Man of La Mancha*
1973	Dramatic: *The Way We Were* Song Score and Adaptation: *The Sting*	Dramatic: *Cinderella Liberty* *The Day of the Dolphin* *Papillon* *A Touch of Class* Song Score and Adaptation: *Jesus Christ Superstar* *Tom Sawyer*
1974	Dramatic: *The Godfather Part II* Song Score and Adaptation: *The Great Gatsby*	Dramatic: *Chinatown* *Murder on the Orient Express* *Shanks* *The Towering Inferno* Song Score and Adaptation: *The Little Prince* *Phantom of the Paradise*
1975	Dramatic: *Jaws* Song Score and Adaptation: *Barry Lyndon*	Dramatic: *Birds Do It, Bees Do It* *Bite the Bullet* *One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest* *The Wind and the Lion* Song Score and Adaptation: *Funny Lady* *Tommy*
1976	Dramatic: *The Omen* Song Score and Adaptation: *Bound for Glory*	Dramatic: *Obsession* *The Outlaw Josey Wales* *Taxi Driver* *Voyage of the Damned* Song Score and Adaptation: *Bugsy Malone* *A Star is Born*
1977	Dramatic: *Star Wars* Song Score and Adaptation: *A Little Night Music*	Dramatic: *Close Encounters of the Third Kind* *Julia* *Mohammad, Messenger of God* *The Spy Who Loved Me* Song Score and Adaptation: *Pete’s Dragon* *The Slipper and the Rose*
1978	Original: *Midnight Express* Adaptation: *The Buddy Holly Story*	Original: *The Boys from Brazil* *Days of Heaven* *Heaven Can Wait* *Superman* Adaptation: *Pretty Baby* *The Wiz*
1979	Dramatic: *A Little Romance* Song Score and Adaptation: *All That Jazz*	Dramatic: *The Amityville Horror* *The Champ* *Star Trek: The Motion Picture* 10 Song Score and Adaptation: *Breaking Away* *The Muppet Movie*
1980	*Fame*	*Altered States* *The Elephant Man* *The Empire Strikes Back* *Tess*
1981	*Chariots of Fire*	*Dragonslayer* *On Golden Pond* *Ragtime* *Raiders of the Lost Ark*
1982	Original: *E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial* Song Score and Adaptation: *Victor Victoria*	Dramatic: *Gandhi* *An Officer and a Gentleman* *Poltergeist* *Sophie’s Choice* Song Score and Adaptation: *Annie* *One from the Heart*
1983	Original: *The Right Stuff* Song Score and Adaptation: *Yentl*	Dramatic: *Cross Creek* *Return of the Jedi* *Terms of Endearment* *Under Fire* Song Score and Adaptation: *The Sting II* *Trading Places*
1984	Dramatic: *A Passage to India* Song Score: *Purple Rain*	Dramatic: *Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom* *The Natural* *The River* *Under the Volcano* Song Score: *The Muppets Take Manhattan* *Songwriter*
1985	*Out of Africa*	*Agnes of God* *The Color Purple* *Silverado* *Witness*
1986	*Round Midnight*	*Aliens* *Hoosiers* *The Mission* *Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home*
1987	*The Last Emperor*	*Cry Freedom* *Empire of the Sun* *The Untouchables* *The Witches of Eastwick*
1988	*The Milagro Beanfield War*	*The Accidental Tourist* *Dangerous Liaisons* *Gorillas in the Mist* *Rain Man*
1989	*The Little Mermaid*	*Born on the Fourth of July* *The Fabulous Baker Boys* *Field of Dreams* *Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade*
1990	*Dances with Wolves*	*Avalon* *Ghost* *Havana* *Home Alone*
1991	*Beauty and the Beast*	*Bugsy* *The Fisher King* *JFK* *The Prince of Tides*
1992	*Aladdin*	*Basic Instinct* *Chaplin* *Howards End* *A River Runs Through It*
1993	*Schindler’s List*	*The Age of Innocence* *The Firm* *The Fugitive* *The Remains of the Day*
1994	*The Lion King*	*Forrest Gump* *Interview with the Vampire* *Little Women* *The Shawshank Redemption*
1995	Dramatic: *Il Postino* Musical or Comedy: *Pocahontas*	Dramatic: *Apollo 13* *Braveheart* *Nixon* *Sense and Sensibility* Musical or Comedy: *The American President* *Sabrina* *Toy Story* *Unstrung Heroes*
1996	Dramatic: *The English Patient* Musical or Comedy: *Emma*	Dramatic: *Hamlet* *Michael Collins* *Shine* *Sleepers* Musical or Comedy: *The First Wives Club* *The Hunchback of Notre Dame* *James and the Giant Peach* *The Preacher’s Wife*
1997	Dramatic: *Titanic* Musical or Comedy: *The Fully Monty*	Dramatic: *Amistad* *Good Will Hunting* *Kundun* *L.A. Confidential* Musical or Comedy: *Anastasia* *As Good As It Gets* *Men in Black* *My Best Friend’s Wedding*
1998	Dramatic: *Life is Beautiful* Musical or Comedy: *Shakespeare in Love*	Dramatic: *Elizabeth* *Pleasantville* *Saving Private Ryan* *The Thin Red Line* Musical or Comedy: *A Bug’s Life* *Mulan* *Patch Adams* *The Prince of Egypt*
1999	*The Red Violin*	*American Beauty* *Angela’s Ashes* *The Cider House Rules* *The Talented Mr. Ripley*
2000	*Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*	*Chocolat* *Gladiator* *Malèna* *The Patriot*
2001	*The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring*	*A.I.: Artificial Intelligence* *A Beautiful Mind* *Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone* *Monsters, Inc.*
2002	*Frida*	*Catch Me If You Can* *Far from Heaven* *The Hours* *Road to Perdition*
2003	*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King*	*Big Fish* *Cold Mountain* *Finding Nemo* *House of Sand and Fog*
2004	*Finding Neverland*	*Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban* *Lemony Snicket’s a Series of Unfortunate Events* *The Passion of the Christ* *The Village*
2005	*Brokeback Mountain*	*The Constant Gardener* *Memoirs of a Geisha* *Munich* *Pride and Prejudice*
2006	*Babel*	*The Good German* *Notes on a Scandal* *Pan’s Labyrinth* *The Queen*
2007	*Atonement*	*3:10 to Yuma* *The Kite Runner* *Michael Clayton* *Ratatouille*
2008	*Slumdog Millionaire*	*The Curious Case of Benjamin Button* *Defiance* *Milk* *Wall-E*
2009	Up	*Avatar* *Fantastic Mr. Fox* *The Hurt Locker* *Sherlock Holmes*
2010	*The Social Network*	*127 Hours* *How to Train Your Dragon* *Inception* *The King’s Speech*
2011	*The Artist*	*The Adventures of Tintin* *Hugo* *Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy* *War Horse*
2012	*Life of Pi*	*Anna Karenina* *Argo* *Lincoln* *Skyfall*
2013	*Gravity*	*The Book Thief* *Her* *Philomena* *Saving Mr. Banks*
2014	*The Grand Budapest Hotel*	*The Imitation Game* *Interstellar* *Mr. Turner* *The Theory of Everything*
2015	*The Hateful Eight*	*Bridge of Spies* *Carol* *Sicario* *Star Wars: The Force Awakens*

The Imitation GameInterstellar

Mr. Turner

The Theory of Everything

The one thing you can always take away from this category… you don’t know shit. You can gauge what seems like the likely winner, but you don’t know. There’s no precursor to guide you, and typically, the Globes category is mostly right, but sometimes way off, and you can’t take Critics Choice seriously here, for the most part. So you mostly go in blind, and figure things out as you go.

Here’s a chart showing how The Oscar winner matches up to the guilds.

(Anything in RED was not nominated at the Oscars.)

Year	Oscar	BAFTA	Globe	BFCA
2015	*The Hateful Eight*	*The Hateful Eight*	*The Hateful Eight*	*The Hateful Eight*
2014	*The Grand Budapest Hotel*	*The Grand Budapest Hotel*	*The Theory of Everything*	*Birdman*
2013	*Gravity*	*Gravity*	*All Is Lost*	*Gravity*
2012	*Life of Pi*	*Skyfall*	*Life of Pi*	*Lincoln*
2011	*The Artist*	*The Artist*	*The Artist*	*The Artist*
2010	*The Social Network*	*The King’s Speech*	*The Social Network*	*The Social Network*
2009	Up	Up	Up	Up
2008	*Slumdog Millionaire*	*Slumdog Millionaire*	*Slumdog Millionaire*	*Slumdog Millionaire*
2007	*Atonement*	*La Vie en Rose*	*Atonement*	*There Will Be Blood*
2006	*Babel*	*Babel*	*The Painted Veil*	*The Illusionist*
2005	*Brokeback Mountain*	*Memoirs of a Geisha*	*Memoirs of a Geisha*	*Memoirs of a Geisha*
2004	*Finding Neverland*	*The Motorcycle Diaries*	*The Aviator*	*The Aviator*
2003	*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King*	*Cold Mountain*	*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King*	*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King*
2002	*Frida*	*The Hours*	*Frida*	*Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets* & *Minority Report*
2001	*The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring*	*Moulin Rouge!*	*Moulin Rouge!*	*The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring*
2000	*Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*	*Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*	*Gladiator*	*Gladiator*

So typically the Oscar winner wins at least one of the precursors. As you can see, in the past decade, there are flashes of them being right on the money. Four years straight, they nailed it cold. Then 2013 everyone had the same thing, for the most part. And somehow, 2012 made sense despite only the Globes going the way of the winner. And last year made some sense too.

Oh, but I should mention — this category is already locked and all of that was pretty inconsequential. We’ve got a musical this year, and it’s going to win. It’s already got two of the three precursors, and it’s going to win the BAFTA too. This is all pretty much window dressing.

Best Original Score

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Passengers is the big surprise here. We all assumed John Williams was gonna get on, because there hasn’t been a year where John Williams hasn’t gotten on for a Spielberg score since 1979. And a year where John Williams has composed a score since like, 1992, he’s been nominated every time. But instead they went with Thomas Newman, who is starting to get nominated just about every year and is currently 0-13 at the Oscars. Soon to be 0-14.

Rankings:

5. Passengers — Sorry, Thomas Newman. You’ll win one of these years. He’s a respected composer, but the voters at large aren’t looking at who scored the film (because if they did, someone like Roger Deakins would have won in Cinematography by now). They’re looking at the film. They’ll see this and immediately discount it. Clearly the fifth choice. The one thing it has going for it is — they’re pretty much all fifth choices next to La La Land this year.

4. Lion — Nice score. Not a chance in hell. Maybe if La La Land isn’t here and it got a BAFTA win I could make a case for it. Here? Nah. Not a chance. I might make a case for it as third choice in the end, especially since people seem to really not like Jackie, based on how things are going. But still, against the musical with 14 nominations, what chance do any of these have?

3. Jackie — It’s memorable. It’s one of the standouts of the film. The composer wasn’t a shoo-in to be nominated, either. He’s the Under the Skin guy who they haven’t really embraced until now. I like that this was nominated, but I’m not sure this stands a hell of a chance at getting any votes. Swap it with Lion, do whatever you want. La La Land is a towering favorite, and only one score has a chance to unseat it (and even that chance is very remote).

2. Moonlight — The score is memorable. This would normally make a hell of a run for a win. But it’s up against a musical. The vote breakdown will be something like this — 80, 10, 4, 4, 2. This will get the 10%. It’ll be a second choice in the end, but there’s no way La La Land loses this category.

1. La La Land — If there were odds for each of the categories (and I’m sure there are), this would probably be something like 1/90. I can’t think of any bigger favorite in any category than this score. Just circle it now. You have 1/24 already, and we’re three weeks out.

– – – – – – – – – – –

Tomorrow is Best Supporting Actress.

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Oscars 2016 Category Breakdown: Best Original Score

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