Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Director. Where anything can happen. As long as the DGA says it’s going to.
| Year | Best Director Winner | Other Nominees |
| 1927-1928 | Dramatic:
Frank Borzage – Seventh Heaven
Comedy: Lewis Milestone – Two Arabian Knights |
Dramatic:
Herbert Brenon – Sorrell and Son King Vidor – The Crowd
Comedy: Ted Wilde – Speedy |
| 1928-1929 | Frank Lloyd – The Divine Lady | Lionel Barrymore – Madame X Harry Beaumont – The Broadway Melody Irving Cummings – In Old Arizona Frank Lloyd – Drag and Weary River Ernst Lubitsch – The Patriot |
| 1929-1930 | Lewis Milestone – All Quiet on the Western Front | Clarence Brown – Anna Christie and Romance Robert Z. Leonard – The Divorcée Ernst Lubitsch – The Love Parade King Vidor – Hallelujah |
| 1930-1931 | Norman Taurog – Skippy | Clarence Brown – A Free Soul Lewis Milestone – The Front Page Wesley Ruggles – Cimarron Josef von Sternberg – Morocco |
| 1931-1932 | Frank Borzage – Bad Girl | King Vidor – The Champ Josef von Sternberg – Shanghai Express |
| 1932-1933 | Frank Lloyd – Cavalcade | Frank Capra – Lady for a Day George Cukor – Little Women |
| 1934 | Frank Capra – It Happened One Night | Victor Schertzinger – One Night of Love W. S. Van Dyke – The Thin Man |
| 1935 | John Ford – The Informer | Henry Hathaway – The Lives of a Bengal Lancer Frank Lloyd – Mutiny on the Bounty |
| 1936 | Frank Capra – Mr. Deeds Goes to Town | Gregory La Cava – My Man Godfrey Robert Z. Leonard – The Great Ziegfeld W. S. Van Dyke – San Francisco William Wyler – Dodsworth |
| 1937 | Leo McCarey – The Awful Truth | William Dieterle – The Life of Emile Zola Sidney Franklin – The Good Earth Gregory La Cava – Stage Door William A. Wellman – A Star Is Born |
| 1938 | Frank Capra – You Can’t Take It with You | Michael Curtiz – Angels with Dirty Faces Michael Curtiz – Four Daughters Norman Taurog – Boys Town King Vidor – The Citadel |
| 1939 | Victor Fleming – Gone with the Wind | Frank Capra – Mr. Smith Goes to Washington John Ford – Stagecoach Sam Wood – Goodbye, Mr. Chips William Wyler – Wuthering Heights |
| 1940 | John Ford – The Grapes of Wrath | George Cukor – The Philadelphia Story Alfred Hitchcock – Rebecca Sam Wood – Kitty Foyle William Wyler – The Letter |
| 1941 | John Ford – How Green Was My Valley | Alexander Hall – Here Comes Mr. Jordan Howard Hawks – Sergeant York Orson Welles – Citizen Kane William Wyler – The Little Foxes |
| 1942 | William Wyler – Mrs. Miniver | Michael Curtiz – Yankee Doodle Dandy John Farrow – Wake Island Mervyn LeRoy – Random Harvest Sam Wood – Kings Row |
| 1943 | Michael Curtiz – Casablanca | Clarence Brown – The Human Comedy Henry King – The Song of Bernadette Ernst Lubitsch – Heaven Can Wait George Stevens – The More the Merrier |
| 1944 | Leo McCarey – Going My Way | Alfred Hitchcock – Lifeboat Henry King – Wilson Otto Preminger – Laura Billy Wilder – Double Indemnity |
| 1945 | Billy Wilder – The Lost Weekend | Clarence Brown – National Velvet Alfred Hitchcock – Spellbound Leo McCarey – The Bells of St. Mary’s Jean Renoir – The Southerner |
| 1946 | William Wyler – The Best Years of Our Lives | Clarence Brown – The Yearling Frank Capra – It’s a Wonderful Life David Lean – Brief Encounter Robert Siodmak – The Killers |
| 1947 | Elia Kazan – Gentleman’s Agreement | George Cukor – A Double Life Edward Dmytryk – Crossfire Henry Koster – The Bishop’s Wife David Lean – Great Expectations |
| 1948 | John Huston – The Treasure of the Sierra Madre | Anatole Litvak – The Snake Pit Jean Negulesco – Johnny Belinda Laurence Olivier – Hamlet Fred Zinnemann – The Search |
| 1949 | Joseph L. Mankiewicz – A Letter to Three Wives | Carol Reed – The Fallen Idol Robert Rossen – All the King’s Men William A. Wellman – Battleground William Wyler – The Heiress |
| 1950 | Joseph L. Mankiewicz – All About Eve | George Cukor – Born Yesterday John Huston – The Asphalt Jungle Carol Reed – The Third Man Billy Wilder – Sunset Boulevard |
| 1951 | George Stevens – A Place in the Sun | John Huston – The African Queen Elia Kazan – A Streetcar Named Desire Vincente Minnelli – An American in Paris William Wyler – Detective Story |
| 1952 | John Ford – The Quiet Man | Cecil B. DeMille – The Greatest Show on Earth John Huston – Moulin Rouge Joseph L. Mankiewicz – 5 Fingers Fred Zinnemann – High Noon |
| 1953 | Fred Zinnemann – From Here to Eternity | George Stevens – Shane Charles Walters – Lili Billy Wilder – Stalag 17 William Wyler – Roman Holiday |
| 1954 | Elia Kazan – On the Waterfront | Alfred Hitchcock – Rear Window George Seaton – The Country Girl William A. Wellman – The High and the Mighty Billy Wilder – Sabrina |
| 1955 | Delbert Mann – Marty | Elia Kazan – East of Eden David Lean – Summertime Joshua Logan – Picnic John Sturges – Bad Day at Black Rock |
| 1956 | George Stevens – Giant | Michael Anderson – Around the World in 80 Days Walter Lang – The King and I King Vidor – War and Peace William Wyler – Friendly Persuasion |
| 1957 | David Lean – The Bridge on the River Kwai | Joshua Logan – Sayonara Sidney Lumet – 12 Angry Men Mark Robson – Peyton Place Billy Wilder – Witness for the Prosecution |
| 1958 | Vincente Minnelli – Gigi | Richard Brooks – Cat on a Hot Tin Roof Stanley Kramer – The Defiant Ones Mark Robson – The Inn of the Sixth Happiness Robert Wise – I Want to Live! |
| 1959 | William Wyler – Ben-Hur | Jack Clayton – Room at the Top George Stevens – The Diary of Anne Frank Billy Wilder – Some Like It Hot Fred Zinnemann – The Nun’s Story |
| 1960 | Billy Wilder – The Apartment | Jack Cardiff – Sons and Lovers Jules Dassin – Never on Sunday Alfred Hitchcock – Psycho Fred Zinnemann – The Sundowners |
| 1961 | Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins – West Side Story | Federico Fellini – La Dolce Vita Stanley Kramer – Judgment at Nuremberg Robert Rossen – The Hustler J. Lee Thompson – The Guns of Navarone |
| 1962 | David Lean – Lawrence of Arabia | Pietro Germi – Divorce, Italian Style Robert Mulligan – To Kill a Mockingbird Arthur Penn – The Miracle Worker Frank Perry – David and Lisa |
| 1963 | Tony Richardson – Tom Jones | Federico Fellini – 8½ Elia Kazan – America, America Otto Preminger – The Cardinal Martin Ritt – Hud |
| 1964 | George Cukor – My Fair Lady | Michael Cacoyannis – Zorba the Greek Peter Glenville – Becket Stanley Kubrick – Dr. Strangelove Robert Stevenson – Mary Poppins |
| 1965 | Robert Wise – The Sound of Music | David Lean – Doctor Zhivago John Schlesinger – Darling Hiroshi Teshigahara – The Woman in the Dunes William Wyler – The Collector |
| 1966 | Fred Zinnemann – A Man for All Seasons | Michelangelo Antonioni – Blowup Richard Brooks – The Professionals Claude Lelouch – A Man and a Woman Mike Nichols – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? |
| 1967 | Mike Nichols – The Graduate | Richard Brooks – In Cold Blood Norman Jewison – In the Heat of the Night Stanley Kramer – Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner Arthur Penn – Bonnie and Clyde |
| 1968 | Carol Reed – Oliver! | Anthony Harvey – The Lion in Winter Stanley Kubrick – 2001: A Space Odyssey Gillo Pontecorvo – The Battle of Algiers Franco Zeffirelli – Romeo and Juliet |
| 1969 | John Schlesinger – Midnight Cowboy | Costa Gavras – Z George Roy Hill – Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid Arthur Penn – Alice’s Restaurant Sydney Pollack – They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? |
| 1970 | Franklin J. Schaffner – Patton | Robert Altman – MASH Federico Fellini – Satyricon Arthur Hiller – Love Story Ken Russell – Women in Love |
| 1971 | William Friedkin – The French Connection | Peter Bogdanovich – The Last Picture Show Norman Jewison – Fiddler on the Roof Stanley Kubrick – A Clockwork Orange John Schlesinger – Sunday Bloody Sunday |
| 1972 | Bob Fosse – Cabaret | John Boorman – Deliverance Francis Ford Coppola – The Godfather Joseph L. Mankiewicz – Sleuth Jan Troell – The Emigrants |
| 1973 | George Roy Hill – The Sting | Ingmar Bergman – Cries and Whispers Bernardo Bertolucci – Last Tango in Paris William Friedkin – The Exorcist George Lucas – American Graffiti |
| 1974 | Francis Ford Coppola – The Godfather Part II | John Cassavetes – A Woman Under the Influence Bob Fosse – Lenny Roman Polanski – Chinatown François Truffaut – Day for Night |
| 1975 | Miloš Forman – One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Robert Altman – Nashville Federico Fellini – Amarcord Stanley Kubrick – Barry Lyndon Sidney Lumet – Dog Day Afternoon |
| 1976 | John G. Avildsen – Rocky | Ingmar Bergman – Face to Face Sidney Lumet – Network Alan J. Pakula – All the President’s Men Lina Wertmüller – Seven Beauties |
| 1977 | Woody Allen – Annie Hall | George Lucas – Star Wars Herbert Ross – The Turning Point Steven Spielberg – Close Encounters of the Third Kind Fred Zinnemann – Julia |
| 1978 | Michael Cimino – The Deer Hunter | Woody Allen – Interiors Hal Ashby – Coming Home Warren Beatty & Buck Henry – Heaven Can Wait Alan Parker – Midnight Express |
| 1979 | Robert Benton – Kramer vs. Kramer | Francis Ford Coppola – Apocalypse Now Bob Fosse – All That Jazz Édouard Molinaro – La Cage aux Folles Peter Yates – Breaking Away |
| 1980 | Robert Redford – Ordinary People | David Lynch – The Elephant Man Roman Polanski – Tess Richard Rush – The Stunt Man Martin Scorsese – Raging Bull |
| 1981 | Warren Beatty – Reds | Hugh Hudson – Chariots of Fire Louis Malle – Atlantic City Mark Rydell – On Golden Pond Steven Spielberg – Raiders of the Lost Ark |
| 1982 | Richard Attenborough – Gandhi | Sidney Lumet – The Verdict Wolfgang Petersen – Das Boot Sydney Pollack – Tootsie Steven Spielberg – E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial |
| 1983 | James L. Brooks – Terms of Endearment | Bruce Beresford – Tender Mercies Ingmar Bergman – Fanny and Alexander Mike Nichols – Silkwood Peter Yates – The Dresser |
| 1984 | Miloš Forman – Amadeus | Woody Allen – Broadway Danny Rose Robert Benton – Places in the Heart Roland Joffé – The Killing Fields David Lean – A Passage to India |
| 1985 | Sydney Pollack – Out of Africa | Héctor Babenco – Kiss of the Spider Woman John Huston – Prizzi’s Honor Akira Kurosawa – Ran Peter Weir – Witness |
| 1986 | Oliver Stone – Platoon | Woody Allen – Hannah and Her Sisters James Ivory – A Room with a View Roland Joffé – The Mission David Lynch – Blue Velvet |
| 1987 | Bernardo Bertolucci – The Last Emperor | John Boorman – Hope and Glory Lasse Hallström – My Life as a Dog Norman Jewison – Moonstruck Adrian Lyne – Fatal Attraction |
| 1988 | Barry Levinson – Rain Man | Charles Crichton – A Fish Called Wanda Mike Nichols – Working Girl Alan Parker – Mississippi Burning Martin Scorsese – The Last Temptation of Christ |
| 1989 | Oliver Stone – Born on the Fourth of July | Woody Allen – Crimes and Misdemeanors Kenneth Branagh – Henry V Jim Sheridan – My Left Foot Peter Weir – Dead Poets Society |
| 1990 | Kevin Costner – Dances with Wolves | Francis Ford Coppola – The Godfather Part III Stephen Frears – The Grifters Barbet Schroeder – Reversal of Fortune Martin Scorsese – Goodfellas |
| 1991 | Jonathan Demme – The Silence of the Lambs | Barry Levinson – Bugsy Ridley Scott – Thelma & Louise John Singleton – Boyz n the Hood Oliver Stone – JFK |
| 1992 | Clint Eastwood – Unforgiven |
Robert Altman – The Player Martin Brest – Scent of a Woman James Ivory – Howards End Neil Jordan – The Crying Game |
| 1993 | Steven Spielberg – Schindler’s List | Robert Altman – Short Cuts Jane Campion – The Piano James Ivory – The Remains of the Day Jim Sheridan – In the Name of the Father |
| 1994 | Robert Zemeckis – Forrest Gump | Woody Allen – Bullets Over Broadway Krzysztof Kieślowski – Three Colors: Red Robert Redford – Quiz Show Quentin Tarantino – Pulp Fiction |
| 1995 | Mel Gibson – Braveheart | Mike Figgis – Leaving Las Vegas Chris Noonan – Babe Michael Radford – Il Postino Tim Robbins – Dead Man Walking |
| 1996 | Anthony Minghella – The English Patient | Joel Coen – Fargo Miloš Forman – The People vs. Larry Flynt Scott Hicks – Shine Mike Leigh – Secrets & Lies |
| 1997 | James Cameron – Titanic | Peter Cattaneo – The Full Monty Atom Egoyan – The Sweet Hereafter Curtis Hanson – L.A. Confidential Gus Van Sant – Good Will Hunting |
| 1998 | Steven Spielberg – Saving Private Ryan | Roberto Benigni – Life Is Beautiful John Madden – Shakespeare in Love Terrence Malick – The Thin Red Line Peter Weir – The Truman Show |
| 1999 | Sam Mendes – American Beauty | Lasse Hallström – The Cider House Rules Spike Jonze – Being John Malkovich Michael Mann – The Insider M. Night Shyamalan – The Sixth Sense |
| 2000 | Steven Soderbergh – Traffic | Stephen Daldry – Billy Elliot Ang Lee – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Ridley Scott – Gladiator Steven Soderbergh – Erin Brockovich |
| 2001 | Ron Howard – A Beautiful Mind | Robert Altman – Gosford Park Peter Jackson – The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring David Lynch – Mulholland Drive Ridley Scott – Black Hawk Down |
| 2002 | Roman Polanski – The Pianist | Pedro Almodóvar – Talk to Her Stephen Daldry – The Hours Rob Marshall – Chicago Martin Scorsese – Gangs of New York |
| 2003 | Peter Jackson – The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Sofia Coppola – Lost in Translation Clint Eastwood – Mystic River Fernando Meirelles – City of God Peter Weir – Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World |
| 2004 | Clint Eastwood – Million Dollar Baby | Taylor Hackford – Ray Mike Leigh – Vera Drake Alexander Payne – Sideways Martin Scorsese – The Aviator |
| 2005 | Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain | George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck Paul Haggis – Crash Bennett Miller – Capote Steven Spielberg – Munich |
| 2006 | Martin Scorsese – The Departed | Clint Eastwood – Letters from Iwo Jima Stephen Frears – The Queen Alejandro González Iñárritu – Babel Paul Greengrass – United 93 |
| 2007 | Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men | Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton Jason Reitman – Juno Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
| 2008 | Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire | Stephen Daldry – The Reader David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon Gus Van Sant – Milk |
| 2009 | Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker | Stephen Daldry – The Reader David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon Gus Van Sant – Milk |
| 2010 | Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech | Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan Joel & Ethan Coen – True Grit David Fincher – The Social Network David O. Russell – The Fighter |
| 2011 | Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life Alexander Payne, The Descendants Martin Scorsese, Hugo |
| 2012 | Ang Lee – Life of Pi | Michael Haneke, Amour
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild |
| 2013 | Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity | Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska David O. Russell, American Hustle Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street |
| 2014 | Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman | Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Richard Linklater, Boyhood Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game |
| 2015 | Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant | Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Adam McKay, The Big Short Tom McCarthy, Spotlight George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
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The way we have to begin this article is never going to change. It’s the fact everybody knows: only seven times in the history of the DGA have they differed from the Oscars.
1968, The Lion in Winter won the DGA, Oliver won the Oscar.
1972, The Godfather won the DGA, Cabaret won the Oscar.
1985, The Color Purple won the DGA, Out of Africa won the Oscar. (Spielberg wasn’t even nominated.)
1995, Apollo 13 won the DGA, Braveheart won the Oscar. (Howard wasn’t even nominated.)
2000, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon won the DGA, Traffic won the Oscar.
2002, Chicago won the DGA, The Pianist won the Oscar.
2012, Argo won the DGA, Life of Pi won the Oscar. (Affleck wasn’t even nominated.)
(Note: Joseph L. Mankiewicz won the DGA in 1948 for A Letter to Three Wives and won the Oscar in 1949. So technically the years were wrong, but he did win. It was also the first DGA awards. In a way, it’s happened eight times, but in a way, not. It’s worth mentioning.)
The odds are ever in the favor of the DGA winner.
Oh, and also, in case you really don’t buy that — of those seven times they didn’t match, three of the times the person who won wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. So if we assume they would have won had they been nominated, then you’re really only looking at four times. Which brings the current 88% match percentage up to 94%. It’s… pretty accurate.
Damien Chazelle won the DGA for La La Land. He also won BAFTA. And BFCA. And the Globe, if that matters.
Shit’s locked, guys.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Rankings:
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival — This won’t get votes. The Academy won’t take this to win. The fact that it got so many nominations still shocks me. He’s the fifth choice. Maybe he’ll get the fourth most votes, but still — no. Not happening.
4. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge — The nomination is the reward. He might be fifth choice for most, but the film is gonna have some support. Four and five are a tossup. Doesn’t matter, since the category’s locked.
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea — He’ll get votes. This movie has support. But not enough to get him a win here. Even if you thought this could win Best Picture (it can’t), he wouldn’t get enough votes to win Best Director. Not a chance.
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight — If it’s gonna be anyone, it’s Barry Jenkins. Since Moonlight is the second choice on Best Picture. It won’t happen, but here’s your second choice.
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land — DGA, BAFTA, BFCA. He’s not losing. He’s going to become the youngest Best Director ever. It’s happening. And if it’s not happening, he’s still the favorite. Inarguable. If you want an argument, make it with the picks. Not here. He’s the favorite. End of story.
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Tomorrow — Best Original Screenplay.
