Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Adapted Screenplay. One of the nominees is dead!
| Year | Best Adapted Screenplay Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1927-1928 | Seventh Heaven | Glorious Betsy
The Jazz Singer |
| 1928-1929 | The Patriot | The Cop
In Old Arizona The Last of Mrs. Cheyney The Leatherneck Our Dancing Daughters Sal of Singapore Skyscraper The Valiant A Woman of Affairs Wonder of Women |
| 1929-1930 | The Big House | All Quiet on the Western Front
Disraeli The Divorcee Street of Chance |
| 1930-1931 | Cimarron | The Criminal Code
Holiday Little Caesar Skippy |
| 1931-1932 | Bad Girl | Arrowsmith
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde |
| 1932-1933 | Little Women | Lady for a Day
State Fair |
| 1934 | It Happened One Night | The Thin Man
Viva Villa! |
| 1935 | The Informer | The Lives of a Bengal Lancer
Mutiny on the Bounty Captain Blood |
| 1936 | The Story of Louis Pasteur | After the Thin Man
Dodsworth Mr. Deeds Goes to Town My Man Godfrey |
| 1937 | The Life of Emile Zola | The Awful Truth
Captains Courageous Stage Door A Star is Born |
| 1938 | Pygmalion | Boys Town
The Citadel Four Daughters You Can’t Take It With You |
| 1939 | Gone With the Wind | Goodbye, Mr. Chips
Mr. Smith Goes to Washington Ninothcka Wuthering Heights |
| 1940 | The Philadelphia Story | The Grapes of Wrath
Kitty Foyle The Long Voyage Home Rebecca |
| 1941 | Here Comes Mr. Jordan | Hold Back the Dawn
How Green Was My Valley The Little Foxes The Maltese Falcon |
| 1942 | Mrs. Miniver | 49th Parallel
The Pride of the Yankees Random Harvest The Talk of the Town |
| 1943 | Casablanca | Holy Matriomy
The More the Merrier The Song of Bernadette Watch on the Rhine |
| 1944 | Going My Way | Double Indemnity
Gaslight Laura Meet Me in St. Louis |
| 1945 | The Lost Weekend | Mildred Pierce
Pride of the Marines The Story of G.I. Joe A Tree Grows in Brooklyn |
| 1946 | The Best Years of Our Lives | Anna and the King of Siam
Brief Encounter The Killers Rome, Open City |
| 1947 | Miracle on 34th Street | Boomerang
Crossfire Gentleman’s Agreement Great Expectations |
| 1948 | The Treasure of the Siera Madre | A Foreign Affair
Johnny Belinda The Search The Snake Pit |
| 1949 | A Letter to Three Wives | All the King’s Men
Bicycle Thieves Champion The Fallen Idol |
| 1950 | All About Eve | The Asphalt Jungle
Born Yesterday Broken Arrow Father of the Bride |
| 1951 | A Place in the Sun | The African Queen
Detective Story La Ronde A Streetcar Named Desire |
| 1952 | The Bad and the Beautiful | 5 Fingers
High Noon The Man in the White Suit The Quiet Man |
| 1953 | From Here to Eternity | The Cruel Sea
Lili Roman Holiday Shane |
| 1954 | The Country Girl | The Caine Mutiny
Rear Window Sabrina Seven Brides for Seven Brothers |
| 1955 | Marty | Bad Day at Black Rock
Blackboard Jungle East of Eden Love Me or Leave Me |
| 1956 | Around the World in 80 Days | Baby Doll
Friendly Persuasion Giant Lust for Life |
| 1957 | The Bridge on the River Kwai | Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison
Peyton Place Sayonara 12 Angry Men |
| 1958 | Gigi | Cat on a Hot Tin Roof
The Horse’s Mouth I Want to Live! Separate Tables |
| 1959 | Room at the Top | Anatomy of a Murder
Ben-Hur The Nun’s Story Some Like It Hot |
| 1960 | Elmer Gantry | Inherit the Wind
Sons and Lovers The Sundowners Tunes of Glory |
| 1961 | Judgment at Nuremberg | Breakfast at Tiffany’s
The Guns of Navarone The Hustler West Side Story |
| 1962 | To Kill a Mockingbird | David and Lisa
Lawrence of Arabia Lolita The Miracle Worker |
| 1963 | Tom Jones | Captain Newman, M.D.
Hud Lilies of the Field Sundays and Cybele |
| 1964 | Becket | Dr. Strangelove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
Mary Poppins My Fair Lady Zorba the Greek |
| 1965 | Doctor Zhivago | Cat Ballou
The Collector Ship of Fools A Thousand Clowns |
| 1966 | A Man for All Seasons | Alfie
The Professionals The Russians are Coming, the Russians are Coming Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? |
| 1967 | In the Heat of the Night | Cool Hand Luke
The Graduate In Cold Blood Ulysses |
| 1968 | The Lion in Winter | The Odd Couple
Oliver! Rachel, Rachel Rosemary’s Baby |
| 1969 | Midnight Cowboy | Anne of the Thousand Days
Goodbye, Columbus They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Z |
| 1970 | MASH | Airport
I Never Sang for My Father Lovers and Other Strangers Women in Love |
| 1971 | The French Connection | A Clockwork Orange
The Conformist The Garden of the Finzi Continis The Last Picture Show |
| 1972 | The Godfather | Cabaret
The Emigrants Pete ‘n’ Tillie Sounder |
| 1973 | The Exorcist | The Last Detail
The Paper Chase Paper Moon Serpico |
| 1974 | The Godfather Part II | The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz
Lenny Murder on the Orient Express Young Frankenstein |
| 1975 | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Barry Lyndon
The Man Who Would Be King Profumo di donna The Sunshine Boys |
| 1976 | All the President’s Men | Bound for Glory
Fellini’s Casanova The Seven Per-Cent Solution Voyage of the Damned |
| 1977 | Julia | Equus
I Never Promised You a Rose Garden Oh, God! That Obscure Object of Desire |
| 1978 | Midnight Express | Bloodbrothers
California Suite Heaven Can Wait Same Time, Next Year |
| 1979 | Kramer vs. Kramer | Apocalypse Now
La Cage aux Folles A Little Romance Norma Rae |
| 1980 | Ordinary People | Breaker Morant
Coal Miner’s Daughter The Elephant Man The Stunt Man |
| 1981 | On Golden Pond | The French Lieutenant’s Woman
Pennies from Heaven Prince of the City Ragtime |
| 1982 | Missing | Das Boot
Sophie’s Choice The Verdict Victor/Victoria |
| 1983 | Terms of Endearment | Betrayal
The Dresser Educating Rita Reuben, Reuben |
| 1984 | Amadeus | Greystroke: The Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes
The Killing Fields A Passage to India A Soldier’s Story |
| 1985 | Out of Africa | The Color Purple
Kiss of the Spider Woman Prizzi’s Honor The Trip to Bountiful |
| 1986 | A Room with a View | Children of a Lesser God
The Color of Money Crimes of the Heart Stand by Me |
| 1987 | The Last Emperor | The Dead
Fatal Attraction Full Metal Jacket My Life as a Dog |
| 1988 | Dangerous Liaisons | The Accidental Tourist
Gorillas in the Mist: The Story of Dian Fossey Little Dorrit The Unbearable Lightness of Being |
| 1989 | Driving Miss Daisy | Born on the Fourth of July
Enemies, a Love Story Field of Dreams My Left Foot |
| 1990 | Dances with Wolves | Awakenings
Goodfellas The Grifters Reversal of Fortune |
| 1991 | The Silence of the Lambs | Europa Europa
Fried Green Tomatoes JFK The Prince of Tides |
| 1992 | Howards End | Enchanted April
The Player A River Runs Through It Scent of a Woman |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List | The Age of Innocence
In the Name of the Father The Remains of the Day Shadowlands |
| 1994 | Forrest Gump | The Madness of King George
Nobody’s Fool Quiz Show The Shawshank Redemption |
| 1995 | Sense and Sensibility | Apollo 13
Babe Leaving Las Vegas Il Postino |
| 1996 | Sling Blade | The Crucible
The English Patient Hamlet Traisnpotting |
| 1997 | L.A. Confidential | Donnie Brasco
The Sweet Hereafter Wag the Dog The Wings of the Dove |
| 1998 | Gods and Monsters | Out of Sight
Primary Colors A Simple Plan The Thin Red Line |
| 1999 | The Cider House Rules | Election
The Green Mile The Insider The Talented Mr. Ripley |
| 2000 | Traffic | Chocolat
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon O Brother Where Art Thou? Wonder Boys |
| 2001 | A Beautiful Mind | Ghost World
In the Bedroom The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Shrek |
| 2002 | The Pianist | About a Boy
Adaptation. Chicago The Hours |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | American Splendor
City of God Mystic River Seabiscuit |
| 2004 | Sideways | Before Sunset
Finding Neverland Million Dollar Baby The Motorcycle Diaries |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | Capote
The Constant Gardener A History of Violence Munich |
| 2006 | The Departed | Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children of Men Little Children Notes on a Scandal |
| 2007 | No Country for Old Men | Atonement
Away from Her The Diving Bell and the Butterfly There Will Be Blood |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt Frost/Nixon The Reader |
| 2009 | Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire | District 9
An Education In the Loop Up in the Air |
| 2010 | The Social Network | 127 Hours
Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter’s Bone |
| 2011 | The Descendants | The Ides of March
Hugo Moneyball Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy |
| 2012 | Argo | Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook |
| 2013 | 12 Years a Slave | Before Midnight
Captain Phillips Philomena The Wolf of Wall Street |
| 2014 | The Imitation Game | American Sniper
Inherent Vice The Theory of Everything Whiplash |
The WGA is always hit and miss, especially this year, when Moonlight was considered Original by them.
But here’s WGA vs. the Oscars:
- 2015: The Big Short won both and the category matched 3/5.
- 2014: The Imitation Game won both and the category matched 4/5.
- 2013: 12 Years a Slave wasn’t eligible, and we knew that was gonna win, so that category is a wash. Captain Phillips won the WGA.
- 2012: Argo won both and the category matched 4/5.
- 2011: The Descendants won both and the category matched 3/5.
- 2010: The category matched 3/5 and The Social Network won both.
- 2009: Up in the Air won WGA and Precious won the Oscar, and those were the only two that matched both categories.
- 2008: Slumdog won both and they matched 4/5.
- 2007: No Country won both and the categories matched 3/5.
- 2006: The Departed won both and the categories matched 3/5.
- 2005: Brokeback won both and the categories matched 4/5.
- 2004: Sideways won both and the categories matched 3/5.
- 2003: Return of the King won the Oscar, American Splendor won the WGA and they matched 4/5.
- 2002: The Pianist won the Oscar, the Hours won the WGA (I’m guessing The Pianist wasn’t eligible for WGA) and the categories matched 4/5.
- 2001: A Beautiful Mind won both and the categories matched 3/5.
They’re generally pretty good.
This year will be different because Moonlight was nominated for Original Screenplay at the WGA.
As for the limited precursors we have — Arrival won BFCA, Lion won BAFTA. Moonlight was nominated in Original for both. Moonlight won Original at the WGA and Arrival won for Adapted at the WGA.
Moonlight also won the USC Scripter award, which in the past ten years has only missed twice.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
These were the expected five. No surprises with the category at all, really. Maybe Nocturnal Animals was a bit of a snub, but not overly surprising in the end.
Rankings:
5. Fences — August Wilson gets a posthumous nomination. Cool and all, but he won’t win. Viola Davis will win and maybe Denzel will win, and that will be the awards that movie gets. This is just an extra nomination. Fifth choice and not even a major contender.
4. Lion — It has a BAFTA win, which is nice, but without a WGA win and much else going for it, it’s hard to see it as anything more than a fourth choice here. You have the precursor to say it’s third choice, but let’s get into the #3 choice before we say anything.
3. Hidden Figures — Come on. You mean to tell me that a voting body at large isn’t gonna vote for this more than Lion (taking the next two out of account)? This is gonna get votes. It’ll get the votes of the people who loved it and want to see it win. Lion is nice, but it’s not getting that many win votes. Put it third all you want, but it’s not winning. This theoretically does stand a small chance at an upset, so I’m putting this as your third choice. Can’t put it higher than that, though, since the next two are clearly locked in their positions.
2. Arrival — It picked up two precursors. BFCA is pretty big, but it didn’t face Moonlight there. And it won WGA too, but also wasn’t up against Moonlight. It’s very deserving of the praise and should be right there for the win. But it’s not your favorite, and I think we all know that. I also feel like it might not even get the second most amount of votes in the end, simply because Hidden Figures is so liked, I think a bunch of votes are gonna be headed that way too. But based on all evidence, this is the second choice. That seems inarguable.
1. Moonlight — Oh it’s gonna win. If this loses, it’ll be one of the biggest upsets of the past decade. The biggest since Up in the Air losing to Precious. This should be one of the biggest locks of the night. I can’t think of a more likely outcome and a more deserving outcome than this. But seriously — WGA in a different category and the Scripter — it’s your favorite by far.
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Tomorrow is Best Costume Design.
