Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Actress. A category that seemed like it would be a wild one at the beginning that has pretty much settled into a likely outcome.
| Year | Best Actress Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1927-1928 | Janet Gaynor, Seventh Heaven & Street Angel & Sunrise | Louise Dresser, A Ship Comes In
Gloria Swanson, Sadie Thompson |
| 1928-1929 | Mary Pickford, Coquette | Ruth Chatterton, Madame X
Betty Compson, The Barker Jeanne Eagels, The Letter Corrinne Griffith, The Divine Lady Bessie Love, The Broadway Melody |
| 1929-1930 | Norma Shearer, The Divorcee | Nancy Carroll, The Devil’s Holiday
Ruth Chatterton, Sarah and Son Greta Garbo, Anna Christie & Romance Norma Shearer, Their Own Desire Gloria Swanson, The Tresspasser |
| 1930-1931 | Marie Dressler, Min and Bill | Marlene Dietrich, Morocco
Irene Dunne, Cimarron Ann Harding, Holiday Norma Shearer, A Free Soul |
| 1931-1932 | Helen Hayes, The Sin of Madelon Claudet | Marie Dressler, Emma
Lynn Fontaine, The Guardsman |
| 1932-1933 | Katharine Hepburn, Morning Glory | May Robson, Lady for a Day
Diana Wynyard, Cavalcade |
| 1934 | Claudette Colbert, It Happened One Night | Grace Moore, One Night of Love
Norma Shearer, The Barretts of Wimpole Street Bette Davis, Of Human Bondage |
| 1935 | Bette Davis, Dangerous | Elisabeth Bergner, Escape Me Never
Claudette Colbert, Private Worlds Katharine Hepburn, Alice Adams Miriam Hopkins, Becky Sharp Merle Oberon, The Dark Angel |
| 1936 | Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld | Irene Dunne, Theodora Goes Wild
Gladys George, Valiant is the Word for Carrie Carole Lombard, My Man Godfrey Norma Shearer, Romeo and Juliet |
| 1937 | Luise Rainer, The Good Earth | Irene Dunne, The Awful Truth
Greta Garbo, Camille Janet Gaynor, A Star is Born Barbara Stanwyck, Stella Dallas |
| 1938 | Bette Davis, Jezebel | Fay Bainter, White Banners
Wendy Hiller, Pygmalion Norma Shearer, Marie Antoinette Margaret Sullivan, Three Comrades |
| 1939 | Vivien Leigh, Gone with the Wind | Bette Davis, Dark Victory
Irene Dunne, Love Affair Greta Garbo, Ninotchka Greer Garson, Goodbye, Mr. Chips |
| 1940 | Ginger Rogers, Kitty Foyle | Bette Davis, The Letter
Joan Fontaine, Rebecca Katharine Hepburn, The Philadelphia Story Martha Scott, Our Town |
| 1941 | Joan Fontaine, Suspicion | Bette Davis, The Little Foxes
Olivia de Havilland, Hold Back the Dawn Greer Garson, Blossoms in the Dust Barbara Stanwyck, Ball of Fire |
| 1942 | Greer Garson, Mrs. Miniver | Bette Davis, Now, Voyager
Katharine Hepburn, Woman of the Year Rosalind Russell, My Sister Eileen Teresa Wright, The Pride of the Yankees |
| 1943 | Jennifer Jones, The Song of Bernadette | Jean Arthur, The More the Merrier
Ingrid Bergman, For Whom the Bell Tolls Joan Fontaine, The Constant Nymph Greer Garson, Madame Curie |
| 1944 | Ingrid Bergman, Gaslight | Claudette Colbert, Since You Went Away
Bette Davis, Mr. Skeffington Greer Garson, Mrs. Parkington Barbara Stanwyck, Double Indemnity |
| 1945 | Joan Crawford, Mildred Pierce | Ingrid Bergman, The Bells of St. Mary’s
Greer Garson, The Valley of Decision Jennifer Jones, Love Letters Gene Tierney, Leave Her to Heaven |
| 1946 | Olivia de Havilland, To Each His Own | Celia Johnson, Brief Encounter
Jennifer Jones, Duel in the Sun Rosalind Russell, Sister Kenny Jane Wyman, The Yearling |
| 1947 | Loretta Young, The Farmer’s Daughter | Joan Crawford, Possessed
Susan Hayward, Smash-up, the Story of a Woman Dorothy McGuire, Gentleman’s Agreement Rosalind Russell, Mourning Becomes Electra |
| 1948 | Jane Wyman, Johnny Belinda | Ingrid Bergman, Joan of Arc
Olivia de Havilland, The Snake Pit Irene Dunne, I Remember Mama Barbara Stanwyck, Sorry, Wrong Number |
| 1949 | Olivia de Havilland, The Heiress | Jeanne Crain, Pinky
Susan Hayward, My Foolish Heart Deborah Kerr, Edward, My Son Loretta Young, Come to the Stable |
| 1950 | Judy Holliday, Born Yesterday | Anne Baxter, All About Eve
Betty Davis, All About Eve Eleanor Parker, Caged Gloria Swanson, Sunset Boulevard |
| 1951 | Vivien Leigh, A Streetcar Named Desire | Katharine Hepburn, The African Queen
Eleanor Parker, Detective Story Shelley Winters, A Place in the Sun Jane Wyman, The Blue Veil |
| 1952 | Shirley Booth, Come Back, Little Sheba | Joan Crawford, Sudden Fear
Bette Davis, The Star Julie Harris, The Member of the Wedding Susan Hayward, With a Song in My Heart |
| 1953 | Audrey Hepburn, Roman Holiday | Leslie Caron, Lili
Ava Gardner, Mogambo Deborah Kerr, From Here to Eternity Maggie McNamara, The Moon is Blue |
| 1954 | Grace Kelly, The Country Girl | Dorothy Dandridge, Carmen Jones
Judy Garland, A Star is Born Audrey Hepburn, Sabrina Jane Wyman, Magnificent Obsession |
| 1955 | Anna Magnani, The Rose Tattoo | Susan Hayward, I’ll Cry Tomorrow
Katharine Hepburn, Summertime Jennifer Jones, Love is a Many-Splendored Thing Eleanor Parker, Interrupted Melody |
| 1956 | Ingrid Bergman, Anastasia | Carroll Baker, Baby Doll
Katharine Hepburn, The Rainmaker Nancy Kelly, The Bad Seed Deborah Kerr, The King and I |
| 1957 | Joanne Woodward, The Three Faces of Eve | Deborah Kerr, Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison
Anna Magnani, Wild is the Wind Elizabeth Taylor, Raintree County Lana Turner, Peyton Place |
| 1958 | Susan Hayward, I Want to Live! | Deborah Kerr, Separate Tables
Shirley MacLaine, Some Came Running Rosalind Russell, Auntie Mame Elizabeth Taylor, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof |
| 1959 | Simone Signoret, Room at the Top | Doris Day, Pillow Talk
Audrey Hepburn, The Nun’s Story Katharine Hepburn, Suddenly, Last Summer Elizabeth Taylor, Suddenly, Last Summer |
| 1960 | Elizabeth Taylor, BUtterfield 8 | Greer Garson, Sunrise at Campobello
Deborah Kerr, The Sundowners Shirley MacLaine, The Apartment Melina Mercouri, Never on Sunday |
| 1961 | Sophia Loren, Two Women | Audrey Hepburn, Breakfast at Tiffany’s
Piper Laurie, The Hustler Geraldine Page, Summer and Smoke Natalie Wood, Splendor in the Grass |
| 1962 | Anne Bancroft, The Miracle Worker | Bette Davis, What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?
Katharine Hepburn, Long Day’s Journey Into Night Geraldine Page, Sweet Bird of Youth Lee Remick, Days of Wine and Roses |
| 1963 | Patricia Neal, Hud | Leslie Caron, The L-Shaped Room
Shirley MacLaine, Irma La Douce Rachel Roberts, This Sporting Life Natalie Wood, Love with the Proper Stranger |
| 1964 | Julie Andrews, Mary Poppins | Anne Bancroft, The Pumpkin Eater
Sophia Loren, Marriage, Italian Style Debbie Reynolds, The Unsinkable Molly Brown Kim Stanley, Séance on a Wet Afternoon |
| 1965 | Julie Christie, Darling | Julie Andrews, The Sound of Music
Samantha Eggar, The Collector Elizabeth Hartman, A Patch of Blue Simone Signoret, Ship of Fools |
| 1966 | Elizabeth Taylor, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? | Anouk Aimée, A Man and a Woman
Ida Kaminska, The Shop on Main Street Lynn Redgrave, Georgy Girl Vanessa Redgrave, Morgan! |
| 1967 | Katharine Hepburn, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? | Anne Bancroft, The Graduate
Faye Dunaway, Bonnie and Clyde Edith Evans, The Whisperers Audrey Hepburn, Wait Until Dark |
| 1968 | TIE
Katharine Hepburn, The Lion in Winter Barbra Streisand, Funny Girl |
Patricia Neal, The Subject Was Roses
Vanessa Redgrave, Isadora Joanne Woodward, Rachel, Rachel |
| 1969 | Maggie Smith, The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie | Geneviève Bujold, Anne of the Thousand Days
Jane Fonda, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Liza Minnelli, The Sterile Cuckoo Jean Simmons, The Happy Ending |
| 1970 | Glenda Jackson, Women in Love | Jane Alexander, The Great White Hope
Ali MacGraw, Love Story Sarah Miles, Ryan’s Daughter Carrie Snodgress, Diary of a Mad Housewife |
| 1971 | Jane Fonda, Klute | Julie Christie, McCabe & Mrs. Miller
Glenda Jackson, Sunday Bloody Sunday Vanessa Redgrave, Mary, Queen of Scots Janet Suzman – Nicholas and Alexandra |
| 1972 | Liza Minnelli, Cabaret | Diana Ross, Lady Sings the Blues
Maggie Smith, Travels with My Aunt Cicely Tyson, Sounder Liv Ullmann, The Emigrants |
| 1973 | Glenda Jackson, A Touch of Class | Ellen Burstyn, The Exorcist
Marsha Mason, Cinderella Liberty Barbra Streisand, The Way We Were Joanne Woodward, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams |
| 1974 | Ellen Burstyn, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore | Diahann Carroll, Claudine
Faye Dunaway, Chinatown Valerie Perrine, Lenny Gena Rowlands, A Woman Under the Influence |
| 1975 | Louise Fletcher, One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Ann-Margret, Tommy
Isabelle Adjani, The Story of Adele H. Glenda Jackson, Hedda Carol Kane, Hester Street |
| 1976 | Faye Dunaway, Network | Marie-Christine Barrault, Cousin, cousine
Talia Shire, Rocky Sissy Spacek, Carrie Liv Ullmann, Face to Face |
| 1977 | Diane Keaton, Annie Hall | Anne Bancroft, The Turning Point
Jane Fonda, Julia Shirley MacLaine, The Turning Point Marsha Mason, The Goodbye Girl |
| 1978 | Jane Fonda, Coming Home | Ingrid Bergman, Autumn Sonata
Ellen Burstyn, Same Time, Next Year Jill Clayburgh, An Unmarried Woman Geraldine Page, Interiors |
| 1979 | Sally Field, Norma Rae | Jill Clayburgh, Starting Over
Jane Fonda, The China Syndrome Marsha Mason, Chapter Two Bette Midler, The Rose |
| 1980 | Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner’s Daughter | Ellen Burstyn, Resurrection
Goldie Hawn, Private Benjamin Mary Tyler Moore, Ordinary People Gena Rowlands, Gloria |
| 1981 | Katharine Hepburn, On Golden Pond | Diane Keaton, Reds
Marsha Mason, Only When I Laugh Susan Sarandon, Atlantic City Meryl Streep, The French Lieutenant’s Woman |
| 1982 | Meryl Streep, Sophie’s Choice | Julie Andrews, Victor Victoria
Jessica Lange, Frances Sissy Spacek, Missing Debra Winger, An Officer and a Gentleman |
| 1983 | Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment | Jane Alexander, Testament
Meryl Streep, Silkwood Julie Walters, Educating Rita Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment |
| 1984 | Sally Field, Places in the Heart | Judy Davis, A Passage to India
Jessica Lange, Country Vanessa Redgrave, The Bostonians Sissy Spacek, The River |
| 1985 | Geraldine Page, The Trip to Bountiful | Anne Bancroft, Agnes of God
Whoopi Goldberg, The Color Purple Jessica Lange, Sweet Dreams Meryl Streep, Out of Africa |
| 1986 | Marlee Matlin, Children of a Lesser God | Jane Fonda, The Morning After
Sissy Spacek, Crimes of the Heart Kathleen Turner, Peggy Sue Got Married Sigourney Weaver, Aliens |
| 1987 | Cher, Moonstruck | Glenn Close, Fatal Attraction
Holly Hunter, Broadcast News Sally Kirkland, Anna Meryl Streep, Ironweed |
| 1988 | Jodie Foster, The Accused | Glenn Close, Dangerous Liaisons
Melanie Griffith, Working Girl Meryl Streep, A Cry in the Dark Sigourney Weaver, Gorillas in the Mist |
| 1989 | Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy | Isabelle Adjani, Camille Claudel
Pauline Collins, Shirley Valentine Jessica Lange, Music Box Michelle Pfeiffer, The Fabulous Baker Boys |
| 1990 | Kathy Bates, Misery | Anjelica Huston, The Grifters
Julia Roberts, Pretty Woman Meryl Streep, Postcards from the Edge Joanne Woodward, Mr. and Mrs. Bridge |
| 1991 | Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs | Geena Davis, Thelma & Louise
Laura Dern, Rambling Rose Bette Midler, For the Boys Susan Sarandon, Thelma & Louise |
| 1992 | Emma Thompson, Howards End | Catherine Deneuve, Indochine
Mary McDonnell, Passion Fish Michelle Pfeiffer, Love Field Susan Sarandon, Lorenzo’s Oil |
| 1993 | Holly Hunter, The Piano | Angela Bassett, What’s Love Got to Do with It
Stockhard Channing, Six Degrees of Separation Emma Thompson, The Remains of the Day Debra Winger, Shadowlands |
| 1994 | Jessica Lange, Blue Sky | Jodie Foster, Nell
Miranda Richardson, Tom & Viv Winona Ryder, Little Women Susan Sarandon, The Client |
| 1995 | Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking | Elisabeth Shue, Leaving Las Vegas
Sharon Stone, Casino Meryl Streep, The Bridges of Madison County Emma Thompson, Sense and Sensibility |
| 1996 | Frances McDormand, Fargo | Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies
Diane Keaton, Marvin’s Room Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves |
| 1997 | Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets | Helena Bonham Carter, The Wings of the Dove
Julie Christie, Afterglow Judi Dench, Mrs. Brown Kate Winslet, Titanic |
| 1998 | Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love | Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth
Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station Meryl Streep, One True Thing Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie |
| 1999 | Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry | Annette Bening, American Beauty
Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart |
| 2000 | Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich | Joan Allen, The Contender
Juliette Binoche, Chocolat Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me |
| 2001 | Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball | Judi Dench, Iris
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge! Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary |
| 2002 | Nicole Kidman, The Hours | Salma Hayek, Frida
Diane Lane, Unfaithful Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Renée Zellweger, Chicago |
| 2003 | Charlize Theron, Monster | Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give Samantha Morton, In America Naomi Watts, 21 Grams |
| 2004 | Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby | Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
| 2005 | Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line | Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice Charlize Theron, North Country |
| 2006 | Helen Mirren, The Queen | Penèlope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada Kate Winslet, Little Children |
| 2007 | Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose | Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her Laura Linney, The Savages Ellen Page, Juno |
| 2008 | Kate Winslet, The Reader | Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling Melissa Leo, Frozen River Meryl Streep, Doubt |
| 2009 | Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side | Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia |
| 2010 | Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine |
| 2011 | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn |
| 2012 | Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook | Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild Naomi Watts, The Impossible |
| 2013 | Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine | Amy Adams, American Hustle
Judi Dench, Philomena Meryl Streep, August: Osage County Naomi Watts, The Impossible |
| 2014 | Julianne Moore, Still Alice | Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon, Wild |
| 2015 | Brie Larson, Room
|
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn |
SAG is pretty accurate. Not as much as Best Actor, but still pretty accurate.
16/22 times correct.
Oscars 2015 Category Breakdown: Best Actress
Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it works, what its history is, how it usually turns out, and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
How these work is — I go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have went, and how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win.
Today is Best Actress. Which will have one of the most satisfying wins of the past few years this year.
| Year | Best Actress Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1927-1928 | Janet Gaynor, Seventh Heaven & Street Angel & Sunrise | Louise Dresser, A Ship Comes InGloria Swanson, Sadie Thompson |
| 1928-1929 | Mary Pickford, Coquette | Ruth Chatterton, Madame XBetty Compson, The Barker
Jeanne Eagels, The Letter Corrinne Griffith, The Divine Lady Bessie Love, The Broadway Melody |
| 1929-1930 | Norma Shearer, The Divorcee | Nancy Carroll, The Devil’s HolidayRuth Chatterton, Sarah and Son
Greta Garbo, Anna Christie & Romance Norma Shearer, Their Own Desire Gloria Swanson, The Tresspasser |
| 1930-1931 | Marie Dressler, Min and Bill | Marlene Dietrich, MoroccoIrene Dunne, Cimarron
Ann Harding, Holiday Norma Shearer, A Free Soul |
| 1931-1932 | Helen Hayes, The Sin of Madelon Claudet | Marie Dressler, EmmaLynn Fontaine, The Guardsman |
| 1932-1933 | Katharine Hepburn, Morning Glory | May Robson, Lady for a DayDiana Wynyard, Cavalcade |
| 1934 | Claudette Colbert, It Happened One Night | Grace Moore, One Night of LoveNorma Shearer, The Barretts of Wimpole Street
Bette Davis, Of Human Bondage |
| 1935 | Bette Davis, Dangerous | Elisabeth Bergner, Escape Me NeverClaudette Colbert, Private Worlds
Katharine Hepburn, Alice Adams Miriam Hopkins, Becky Sharp Merle Oberon, The Dark Angel |
| 1936 | Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld | Irene Dunne, Theodora Goes WildGladys George, Valiant is the Word for Carrie
Carole Lombard, My Man Godfrey Norma Shearer, Romeo and Juliet |
| 1937 | Luise Rainer, The Good Earth | Irene Dunne, The Awful TruthGreta Garbo, Camille
Janet Gaynor, A Star is Born Barbara Stanwyck, Stella Dallas |
| 1938 | Bette Davis, Jezebel | Fay Bainter, White BannersWendy Hiller, Pygmalion
Norma Shearer, Marie Antoinette Margaret Sullivan, Three Comrades |
| 1939 | Vivien Leigh, Gone with the Wind | Bette Davis, Dark VictoryIrene Dunne, Love Affair
Greta Garbo, Ninotchka Greer Garson, Goodbye, Mr. Chips |
| 1940 | Ginger Rogers, Kitty Foyle | Bette Davis, The LetterJoan Fontaine, Rebecca
Katharine Hepburn, The Philadelphia Story Martha Scott, Our Town |
| 1941 | Joan Fontaine, Suspicion | Bette Davis, The Little FoxesOlivia de Havilland, Hold Back the Dawn
Greer Garson, Blossoms in the Dust Barbara Stanwyck, Ball of Fire |
| 1942 | Greer Garson, Mrs. Miniver | Bette Davis, Now, VoyagerKatharine Hepburn, Woman of the Year
Rosalind Russell, My Sister Eileen Teresa Wright, The Pride of the Yankees |
| 1943 | Jennifer Jones, The Song of Bernadette | Jean Arthur, The More the MerrierIngrid Bergman, For Whom the Bell Tolls
Joan Fontaine, The Constant Nymph Greer Garson, Madame Curie |
| 1944 | Ingrid Bergman, Gaslight | Claudette Colbert, Since You Went AwayBette Davis, Mr. Skeffington
Greer Garson, Mrs. Parkington Barbara Stanwyck, Double Indemnity |
| 1945 | Joan Crawford, Mildred Pierce | Ingrid Bergman, The Bells of St. Mary’sGreer Garson, The Valley of Decision
Jennifer Jones, Love Letters Gene Tierney, Leave Her to Heaven |
| 1946 | Olivia de Havilland, To Each His Own | Celia Johnson, Brief EncounterJennifer Jones, Duel in the Sun
Rosalind Russell, Sister Kenny Jane Wyman, The Yearling |
| 1947 | Loretta Young, The Farmer’s Daughter | Joan Crawford, PossessedSusan Hayward, Smash-up, the Story of a Woman
Dorothy McGuire, Gentleman’s Agreement Rosalind Russell, Mourning Becomes Electra |
| 1948 | Jane Wyman, Johnny Belinda | Ingrid Bergman, Joan of ArcOlivia de Havilland, The Snake Pit
Irene Dunne, I Remember Mama Barbara Stanwyck, Sorry, Wrong Number |
| 1949 | Olivia de Havilland, The Heiress | Jeanne Crain, PinkySusan Hayward, My Foolish Heart
Deborah Kerr, Edward, My Son Loretta Young, Come to the Stable |
| 1950 | Judy Holliday, Born Yesterday | Anne Baxter, All About EveBetty Davis, All About Eve
Eleanor Parker, Caged Gloria Swanson, Sunset Boulevard |
| 1951 | Vivien Leigh, A Streetcar Named Desire | Katharine Hepburn, The African QueenEleanor Parker, Detective Story
Shelley Winters, A Place in the Sun Jane Wyman, The Blue Veil |
| 1952 | Shirley Booth, Come Back, Little Sheba | Joan Crawford, Sudden FearBette Davis, The Star
Julie Harris, The Member of the Wedding Susan Hayward, With a Song in My Heart |
| 1953 | Audrey Hepburn, Roman Holiday | Leslie Caron, LiliAva Gardner, Mogambo
Deborah Kerr, From Here to Eternity Maggie McNamara, The Moon is Blue |
| 1954 | Grace Kelly, The Country Girl | Dorothy Dandridge, Carmen JonesJudy Garland, A Star is Born
Audrey Hepburn, Sabrina Jane Wyman, Magnificent Obsession |
| 1955 | Anna Magnani, The Rose Tattoo | Susan Hayward, I’ll Cry TomorrowKatharine Hepburn, Summertime
Jennifer Jones, Love is a Many-Splendored Thing Eleanor Parker, Interrupted Melody |
| 1956 | Ingrid Bergman, Anastasia | Carroll Baker, Baby DollKatharine Hepburn, The Rainmaker
Nancy Kelly, The Bad Seed Deborah Kerr, The King and I |
| 1957 | Joanne Woodward, The Three Faces of Eve | Deborah Kerr, Heaven Knows, Mr. AllisonAnna Magnani, Wild is the Wind
Elizabeth Taylor, Raintree County Lana Turner, Peyton Place |
| 1958 | Susan Hayward, I Want to Live! | Deborah Kerr, Separate TablesShirley MacLaine, Some Came Running
Rosalind Russell, Auntie Mame Elizabeth Taylor, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof |
| 1959 | Simone Signoret, Room at the Top | Doris Day, Pillow TalkAudrey Hepburn, The Nun’s Story
Katharine Hepburn, Suddenly, Last Summer Elizabeth Taylor, Suddenly, Last Summer |
| 1960 | Elizabeth Taylor, BUtterfield 8 | Greer Garson, Sunrise at CampobelloDeborah Kerr, The Sundowners
Shirley MacLaine, The Apartment Melina Mercouri, Never on Sunday |
| 1961 | Sophia Loren, Two Women | Audrey Hepburn, Breakfast at Tiffany’sPiper Laurie, The Hustler
Geraldine Page, Summer and Smoke Natalie Wood, Splendor in the Grass |
| 1962 | Anne Bancroft, The Miracle Worker | Bette Davis, What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?Katharine Hepburn, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Geraldine Page, Sweet Bird of Youth Lee Remick, Days of Wine and Roses |
| 1963 | Patricia Neal, Hud | Leslie Caron, The L-Shaped RoomShirley MacLaine, Irma La Douce
Rachel Roberts, This Sporting Life Natalie Wood, Love with the Proper Stranger |
| 1964 | Julie Andrews, Mary Poppins | Anne Bancroft, The Pumpkin EaterSophia Loren, Marriage, Italian Style
Debbie Reynolds, The Unsinkable Molly Brown Kim Stanley, Séance on a Wet Afternoon |
| 1965 | Julie Christie, Darling | Julie Andrews, The Sound of MusicSamantha Eggar, The Collector
Elizabeth Hartman, A Patch of Blue Simone Signoret, Ship of Fools |
| 1966 | Elizabeth Taylor, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? | Anouk Aimée, A Man and a WomanIda Kaminska, The Shop on Main Street
Lynn Redgrave, Georgy Girl Vanessa Redgrave, Morgan! |
| 1967 | Katharine Hepburn, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? | Anne Bancroft, The GraduateFaye Dunaway, Bonnie and Clyde
Edith Evans, The Whisperers Audrey Hepburn, Wait Until Dark |
| 1968 | TIEKatharine Hepburn, The Lion in Winter
Barbra Streisand, Funny Girl |
Patricia Neal, The Subject Was RosesVanessa Redgrave, Isadora
Joanne Woodward, Rachel, Rachel |
| 1969 | Maggie Smith, The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie | Geneviève Bujold, Anne of the Thousand DaysJane Fonda, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?
Liza Minnelli, The Sterile Cuckoo Jean Simmons, The Happy Ending |
| 1970 | Glenda Jackson, Women in Love | Jane Alexander, The Great White HopeAli MacGraw, Love Story
Sarah Miles, Ryan’s Daughter Carrie Snodgress, Diary of a Mad Housewife |
| 1971 | Jane Fonda, Klute | Julie Christie, McCabe & Mrs. MillerGlenda Jackson, Sunday Bloody Sunday
Vanessa Redgrave, Mary, Queen of Scots Janet Suzman – Nicholas and Alexandra |
| 1972 | Liza Minnelli, Cabaret | Diana Ross, Lady Sings the BluesMaggie Smith, Travels with My Aunt
Cicely Tyson, Sounder Liv Ullmann, The Emigrants |
| 1973 | Glenda Jackson, A Touch of Class | Ellen Burstyn, The ExorcistMarsha Mason, Cinderella Liberty
Barbra Streisand, The Way We Were Joanne Woodward, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams |
| 1974 | Ellen Burstyn, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore | Diahann Carroll, ClaudineFaye Dunaway, Chinatown
Valerie Perrine, Lenny Gena Rowlands, A Woman Under the Influence |
| 1975 | Louise Fletcher, One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Ann-Margret, TommyIsabelle Adjani, The Story of Adele H.
Glenda Jackson, Hedda Carol Kane, Hester Street |
| 1976 | Faye Dunaway, Network | Marie-Christine Barrault, Cousin, cousineTalia Shire, Rocky
Sissy Spacek, Carrie Liv Ullmann, Face to Face |
| 1977 | Diane Keaton, Annie Hall | Anne Bancroft, The Turning PointJane Fonda, Julia
Shirley MacLaine, The Turning Point Marsha Mason, The Goodbye Girl |
| 1978 | Jane Fonda, Coming Home | Ingrid Bergman, Autumn SonataEllen Burstyn, Same Time, Next Year
Jill Clayburgh, An Unmarried Woman Geraldine Page, Interiors |
| 1979 | Sally Field, Norma Rae | Jill Clayburgh, Starting OverJane Fonda, The China Syndrome
Marsha Mason, Chapter Two Bette Midler, The Rose |
| 1980 | Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner’s Daughter | Ellen Burstyn, ResurrectionGoldie Hawn, Private Benjamin
Mary Tyler Moore, Ordinary People Gena Rowlands, Gloria |
| 1981 | Katharine Hepburn, On Golden Pond | Diane Keaton, RedsMarsha Mason, Only When I Laugh
Susan Sarandon, Atlantic City Meryl Streep, The French Lieutenant’s Woman |
| 1982 | Meryl Streep, Sophie’s Choice | Julie Andrews, Victor VictoriaJessica Lange, Frances
Sissy Spacek, Missing Debra Winger, An Officer and a Gentleman |
| 1983 | Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment | Jane Alexander, TestamentMeryl Streep, Silkwood
Julie Walters, Educating Rita Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment |
| 1984 | Sally Field, Places in the Heart | Judy Davis, A Passage to IndiaJessica Lange, Country
Vanessa Redgrave, The Bostonians Sissy Spacek, The River |
| 1985 | Geraldine Page, The Trip to Bountiful | Anne Bancroft, Agnes of GodWhoopi Goldberg, The Color Purple
Jessica Lange, Sweet Dreams Meryl Streep, Out of Africa |
| 1986 | Marlee Matlin, Children of a Lesser God | Jane Fonda, The Morning AfterSissy Spacek, Crimes of the Heart
Kathleen Turner, Peggy Sue Got Married Sigourney Weaver, Aliens |
| 1987 | Cher, Moonstruck | Glenn Close, Fatal AttractionHolly Hunter, Broadcast News
Sally Kirkland, Anna Meryl Streep, Ironweed |
| 1988 | Jodie Foster, The Accused | Glenn Close, Dangerous LiaisonsMelanie Griffith, Working Girl
Meryl Streep, A Cry in the Dark Sigourney Weaver, Gorillas in the Mist |
| 1989 | Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy | Isabelle Adjani, Camille ClaudelPauline Collins, Shirley Valentine
Jessica Lange, Music Box Michelle Pfeiffer, The Fabulous Baker Boys |
| 1990 | Kathy Bates, Misery | Anjelica Huston, The GriftersJulia Roberts, Pretty Woman
Meryl Streep, Postcards from the Edge Joanne Woodward, Mr. and Mrs. Bridge |
| 1991 | Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs | Geena Davis, Thelma & LouiseLaura Dern, Rambling Rose
Bette Midler, For the Boys Susan Sarandon, Thelma & Louise |
| 1992 | Emma Thompson, Howards End | Catherine Deneuve, IndochineMary McDonnell, Passion Fish
Michelle Pfeiffer, Love Field Susan Sarandon, Lorenzo’s Oil |
| 1993 | Holly Hunter, The Piano | Angela Bassett, What’s Love Got to Do with ItStockhard Channing, Six Degrees of Separation
Emma Thompson, The Remains of the Day Debra Winger, Shadowlands |
| 1994 | Jessica Lange, Blue Sky | Jodie Foster, NellMiranda Richardson, Tom & Viv
Winona Ryder, Little Women Susan Sarandon, The Client |
| 1995 | Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking | Elisabeth Shue, Leaving Las VegasSharon Stone, Casino
Meryl Streep, The Bridges of Madison County Emma Thompson, Sense and Sensibility |
| 1996 | Frances McDormand, Fargo | Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & LiesDiane Keaton, Marvin’s Room
Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves |
| 1997 | Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets | Helena Bonham Carter, The Wings of the DoveJulie Christie, Afterglow
Judi Dench, Mrs. Brown Kate Winslet, Titanic |
| 1998 | Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love | Cate Blanchett, ElizabethFernanda Montenegro, Central Station
Meryl Streep, One True Thing Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie |
| 1999 | Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry | Annette Bening, American BeautyJanet McTeer, Tumbleweeds
Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart |
| 2000 | Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich | Joan Allen, The ContenderJuliette Binoche, Chocolat
Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me |
| 2001 | Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball | Judi Dench, IrisNicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge!
Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary |
| 2002 | Nicole Kidman, The Hours | Salma Hayek, FridaDiane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Renée Zellweger, Chicago |
| 2003 | Charlize Theron, Monster | Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale RiderDiane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton, In America Naomi Watts, 21 Grams |
| 2004 | Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby | Annette Bening, Being JuliaCatalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
| 2005 | Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line | Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson PresentsFelicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice Charlize Theron, North Country |
| 2006 | Helen Mirren, The Queen | Penèlope Cruz, VolverJudi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada Kate Winslet, Little Children |
| 2007 | Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose | Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden AgeJulie Christie, Away from Her
Laura Linney, The Savages Ellen Page, Juno |
| 2008 | Kate Winslet, The Reader | Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting MarriedAngelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River Meryl Streep, Doubt |
| 2009 | Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side | Helen Mirren, The Last StationCarey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia |
| 2010 | Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Annette Bening, The Kids are All RightNicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine |
| 2011 | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Glenn Close, Albert NobbsViola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn |
| 2012 | Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook | Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark ThirtyEmmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild Naomi Watts, The Impossible |
| 2013 | Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine | Amy Adams, American HustleJudi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County Naomi Watts, The Impossible |
| 2014 | Julianne Moore, Still Alice | Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One NightFelicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon, Wild |
Not a whole lot to say, precursor-wise, since I think we know who’s gonna win this.
15/21 times for them.
- Jodie Foster won in ’94 and Jessica Lange won the Oscar.
- Annette Bening won in ’99 and Hilary Swank won the Oscar.
- Renee Zellweger won in ’02 and Nicole Kidman won the Oscar.
- Julie Christie won in ’07 and Marion Cotillard won the Oscar.
- Meryl Streep won in ’08 and Kate Winslet… yeah, you know by now. She won SAG Supporting. So technically not entirely wrong.
- Viola Davis won in ’11 and Meryl won the Oscar.
Really it’s 16/21, which is more than 75% of the time. Typically you listen to SAG.
SAG and BAFTA this year both went to Emma Stone. Which is not how I saw this category turning out. I had an inkling that she could mount a campaign, after Jackie faltered when nominations were announced and Elle failed to capitalize at all after the Globes win. But I didn’t think that she’d actually skate right through there en route to a win. I’m actually impressed how they navigated that one. Kudos to that campaign.
Isabelle Huppert won the Globe for Drama. (Oh, and Emma also won the Globe for Musical/Comedy.)
Natalie Portman only has a BFCA win, which I bet was the result of them thinking, as we all did, that Jackie was gonna be more of a player this season.
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
No real surprises with this category except Amy Adams being left off. But it means Ruth Negga is on, which is nice. Since you know they’re weren’t gonna leave Meryl off, even if they should have.
This seemed like it would be one of the more open Best Actress races in recent memory. At least since, what, 2011, maybe? 2007 is the last real tossup. But here, I think we’ve settled into a likely winner and two potential spoilers that seem less likely the further we get. I deliberately held this category to the end because I thought it would come down to the wire. But the closer we get, the more assured I’m getting that it’s gonna turn out the way we think.
Rankings:
5. Meryl Streep — Do I even need to justify this one? Meryl is nominated so much that she’s usually in one of two spots. Either she’s the clear fifth choice and has no chance at it because they’re not looking to get Meryl another Oscar or the performance is just a “Meryl” nomination, or she’s in the top two and contending for a win. Sometimes it works out (The Iron Lady), sometimes it doesn’t (Doubt). This is one of the former ones, and is actually one of her all-time weaker nominations. She has no chance at this and the nomination is the reward.
4. Ruth Negga — She’s great in the film, but the film has no other nominations outside of her, and I’d be surprised if enough people even saw it to vote for her. And even if they did, there aren’t nearly enough people out there who would vote for her in order to get her through to the win. At best a fourth choice, and if it weren’t for the fact that Meryl is here, she’d be straight up fifth. No chance at all.
3. Isabelle Huppert — The Golden Globe win signaled a potential upset win here for her, which would have been almost historic, given how few foreign language winners there have been in this category. Theoretically this could still happen. But she wasn’t nominated for SAG (was she eligible, or was this an Emmannuelle Riva situation where she’s not a member?) or BAFTA (that one would have meant something). And the film is not a widely seen movie, and it’s about difficult subject matter (rape). Are there really enough people out there that would vote for her in this? Plus her character is really unlikable in that movie. They don’t really gravitate to any of this. It would be a big surprise if she won. I’m not fully ruling it out, but how things are, I’m not thinking they’re gonna go there at all. Even if I were going to strongly consider her (which I might, the way things have gone), I really can’t say she’d ever be higher than a #3 in terms of likelihood to win. She’s always in that spoiler spot. That’s how it goes. That’s the spot. It’s not where she’s ranked, it’s whether or not she’s gonna jump over the other two. That’s the question you have to ask. To put her anywhere other than third would be reaching based on everything we know.
2. Natalie Portman — She’s only got BFCA. Nothing else. A Globes win would have helped her case more, but as it is, all we really have is her stature as an actress and the performance/role itself to really point to her as a second choice. The way they’ve soundly rejected the movie is pretty telling. She’ll get votes for her performance, but I don’t think she’ll get nearly enough to pull this one out. Maybe she still can, but this campaign is on life support right now. She’s been next to nowhere for this. It’s almost as if they know she won’t win. I thought she’d have been a precarious frontrunner. Now she’s barely hanging on as the competition, and mostly that’s because it’s Natalie Portman as Jackie Kennedy in a big, flashy role. If Isabelle Huppert weren’t a foreign language nominee, I’d say she was the second choice. Either way, all this speaks to a pretty deafening favorite in this category. One I don’t think they’re gonna be able to topple.
1. Emma Stone — Emma Stone is gonna win an Oscar, guys. I don’t think even she’d have seen this coming five years ago. (Shout out to Easy A, that movie is amazing.) She’s got SAG, BAFTA and the Globe for Comedy/Musical (which all but negates the Huppert win. It’s kind of like when people pointed to a Globe win for Drama in order to say The Descendants could beat The Artist. Even though The Artist won the Globe for Musical/Comedy). She’s your favorite. Whether she actually wins or not remains to be seen, but she’s looking like a stronger favorite and probable winner more and more by the day. It’s hers to lose at this point.
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Tomorrow is the big one. Best Picture
