So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
Today is Best Actor, which I thought was locked one way at the start of the season. Turns out it may be locked another way instead.
| Year | Best Actor Winner | Other Nominees |
| 1927-1928 | Emil Jannings, The Last Command and The Way of All Flesh | Richard Barthelmess, The Noose and The Patent Leather Kid |
| 1928-1929 | Warner Baxter, In Old Arizona | George Bancroft, Thunderbolt
Chester Morris, Alibi Paul Muni, The Valiant Lewis Stone, The Patriot |
| 1929-1930 | George Arliss, Disraeli | George Arliss, The Green Goddess
Wallace Beery, The Big House Maurice Chevalier, The Big Pond and The Love Parade Ronald Colman, Bulldog Drummond & Condemned Lawrence Tibbett, The Rogue Song |
| 1930-1931 | Lionel Barrymore, A Free Soul | Adolphe Menjou, The Front Page
Jackie Cooper, Skippy Richard Dix, Cimarron Fredric March, The Royal Family of Broadway |
| 1931-1932 | TIE
Frederic March, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Wallace Beery, The Champ |
Alfred Lunt, The Guardsman |
| 1932-1933 | Charles Laughton, The Private Life of Henry VIII | Leslie Howard, Berkeley Square
Paul Muni, I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang |
| 1934 | Clark Gable, It Happened One Night | Frank Morgan, The Affairs of Cellini
William Powell, The Thin Man |
| 1935 | Victor McLaglen, The Informer | Clark Gable, Mutiny on the Bounty
Charles Laughton, Mutiny on the Bounty Paul Muni, Black Fury Franchot Tone, Mutiny on the Bounty |
| 1936 | Paul Muni, The Story of Louis Pasteur | Gary Cooper, Mr. Deeds Goes to Town
Walter Huston, Dodsworth William Powell, My Man Godfrey Spencer Tracy, San Francisco |
| 1937 | Spencer Tracy, Captains Courageous | Charles Boyer, Conquest
Fredric March, A Star is Born Robert Montgomery, Night Must Fall Paul Muni, The Life of Emile Zola |
| 1938 | Spencer Tracy, Boys Town | Charles Boyer, Algiers
James Cagney, Angels with Dirty Faces Robert Donat, The Citadel Leslie Howard, Pygmalion |
| 1939 | Robert Donat, Goodbye, Mr. Chips | Clark Gable, Gone with the Wind
Laurence Olivier, Wuthering Heights Mickey Rooney, Babes in Arms James Stewart, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington |
| 1940 | Jimmy Stewart, The Philadelphia Story | Charlie Chaplin, The Great Dictator
Henry Fonda, The Grapes of Wrath Raymond Massey, Abe Lincoln in Illinois Laurence Olivier, Rebecca |
| 1941 | Gary Cooper, Sergeant York | Cary Grant, Penny Serenade
Walter Huston, The Devil and Daniel Webster Robert Montgomery, Here Comes Mr. Jordan Orson Welles, Citizen Kane |
| 1942 | James Cagney, Yankee Doodle Dandy | Ronald Colman, Random Harvest
Gary Cooper, The Pride of the Yankees Walter Pidgeon, Mrs. Miniver Monty Woolley, The Pied Piper |
| 1943 | Paul Lukas, Watch on the Rhine | Humphrey Bogart, Casablanca
Gary Cooper, For Whom the Bell Tolls Walter Pidgeon, Madame Curie Mickey Rooney, The Human Comedy |
| 1944 | Bing Crosby, Going My Way | Charles Boyer, Gaslight
Barry Fitzgerald, Going My Way Cary Grant, None But the Lonely Heart Alexander Knox, Wilson |
| 1945 | Ray Milland, The Lost Weekend | Bing Crosby, The Bells of St. Mary’s
Gene Kelley, Anchors Aweigh Gregory Peck, The Keys of the Kingdom Cornel Wilde, A Song to Remember |
| 1946 | Frederic March, The Best Years of Our Lives | Laurence Olivier, Henry V
Larry Parks, The Jolson Story Gregory Peck, The Yearling James Stewart, It’s a Wonderful Life |
| 1947 | Ronald Colman, A Double Life | John Garfield, Body and Soul
Gregory Peck, Gentleman’s Agreement William Powell, Life with Father Michael Redgrave, Mourning Becomes Electra |
| 1948 | Laurence Olivier, Hamlet | Lew Ayres, Johnny Belinda
Montgomery Clift, The Search Dan Dailey, When My Baby Smiles at Me Clifton Webb, Sitting Pretty |
| 1949 | Broderick Crawford, All the King’s Men | Kirk Douglas, Champion
Gregory Peck, Twelve O’Clock High Richard Todd, The Hasty Heart John Wayne, Sands of Iwo Jima |
| 1950 | José Ferrer, Cyrano de Bergerac | Louis Calhern, The Magnificent Yankee
William Holden, Sunset Boulevard James Stewart, Harvey Spencer Tracy, Father of the Bride |
| 1951 | Humphrey Bogart, The African Queen | Marlon Brando, A Streetcar Named Desire
Montgomery Clift, A Place in the Sun Arthur Kennedy, Bright Victory Fredric March, Death of a Salesman |
| 1952 | Gary Cooper, High Noon | Marlon Brando, Viva Zapata!
Kirk Douglas, The Bad and the Beautiful José Ferrer, Moulin Rouge Alec Guinness, The Lavender Hill Mob |
| 1953 | William Holden, Stalag 17 | Marlon Brando, Julius Caesar
Richard Burton, The Robe Montgomery Clift, From Here to Eternity Burt Lancaster, From Here to Eternity |
| 1954 | Marlon Brando, On the Waterfront | Humphrey Bogart, The Caine Mutiny
Bing Crosby, The Country Girl James Mason, A Star is Born Dan O’Herlihy, Robison Crusoe |
| 1955 | Ernest Borgnine, Marty | James Cagney, Love Me or Leave Me
James Dean, East of Eden Frank Sinatra, The Man with the Golden Arm Spencer Tracy, Bad Day at Black Rock |
| 1956 | Yul Brynner, The King and I | James Dean, Giant
Kirk Douglas, Lust for Life Rock Hudson, Giant Laurence Olivier, Richard III |
| 1957 | Alec Guinness, The Bridge on the River Kwai | Marlon Brando, Sayonara
Anthony Franciosa, A Hatful of Rain Charles Laughton, Witness for Prosecution Anthony Quinn, Wild is the Wind |
| 1958 | David Niven, Separate Tables | Tony Curtis, The Defiant Ones
Paul Newman, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof Sidney Poitier, The Defiant Ones Spencer Tracy, The Old Man and the Sea |
| 1959 | Charlton Heston, Ben-Hur | Laurence Harvey, Room at the Top
Jack Lemmon, Some Like it Hot Paul Muni, The Last Angry Man James Stewart, Anatomy of a Murder |
| 1960 | Burt Lancaster, Elmer Gantry | Trevor Howard, Sons and Lovers
Jack Lemmon, The Apartment Laurence Olivier, The Entertainer Spencer Tracy, Inherit the Wind |
| 1961 | Maximilian Schell, Judgment at Nuremberg | Charles Boyer, Fanny
Paul Newman, The Hustler Spencer Tracy, Judgment at Nuremberg Stuart Whitman, The Mark |
| 1962 | Gregory Peck, To Kill a Mockingbird | Burt Lancaster, Birdman of Alcatraz
Jack Lemmon, Days of Wine and Roses Marcello Mastroianni, Divorce, Italian Style Peter O’Toole, Lawrence of Arabia |
| 1963 | Sidney Poitier, Lilies of the Field | Albert Finney, Tom Jones
Richard Harris, This Sporting Life Rex Harrison, Cleopatra Paul Newman, Hud |
| 1964 | Rex Harrison, My Fair Lady | Richard Burton, Becket
Peter O’Toole, Becket Anthony Quinn, Zorba the Greek Peter Sellers, Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb |
| 1965 | Lee Marvin, Cat Ballou | Richard Burton, The Spy Who Came in from the Cold
Laurence Olivier, Othello Rod Steiger, The Pawnbroker Oskar Werner, Ship of Fools |
| 1966 | Paul Scofield, A Man for All Seasons | Alan Arkin, The Russians are Coming, the Russians are Coming
Richard Burton, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? Michael Caine, Alfie Steve McQueen, The Sand Pebbles |
| 1967 | Rod Steiger, In the Heat of the Night | Warren Beatty, Bonnie and Clyde
Dustin Hoffman, The Graduate Paul Newman, Cool Hand Luke Spencer Tracy, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner |
| 1968 | Cliff Robertson, Charly | Alan Arkin, The Heart is a Lonely Hunter
Alan Bates, The Fixer Ron Moody, Oliver! Peter O’Toole, The Lion in Winter |
| 1969 | John Wayne, True Grit | Richard Burton, Anne of the Thousand Days
Dustin Hoffman, Midnight Cowboy Peter O’Toole, Goodbye, Mr. Chips Jon Voight, Midnight Cowboy |
| 1970 | George C. Scott, Patton | Melvyn Douglas, I Never Sang for My Father
James Earl Jones, The Great White Hope Jack Nicholson, Five Easy Pieces Ryan O’Neal, Love Story |
| 1971 | Gene Hackman, The French Connection | Peter Finch, Sunday Bloody Sunday
Walther Matthau, Kotch George C. Scott, The Hospital Chaim Topol, Fiddler on the Roof |
| 1972 | Marlon Brando, The Godfather | Michael Caine, Sleuth
Laurence Olivier, Sleuth Peter O’Toole, The Ruling Class Paul Winfield, Sounder |
| 1973 | Jack Lemmon, Save the Tiger | Marlon Brando, Last Tango in Paris
Jack Nicholson, The Last Detail Al Pacino, Serpico Robert Redford, The Sting |
| 1974 | Art Carney, Harry and Tonto | Albert Finney, Murder on the Orient Express
Dustin Hoffman, Lenny Jack Nicholson, Chinatown Al Pacino, The Godfather, Part II |
| 1975 | Jack Nicholson, One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Walther Matthau, The Sunshine Boys
Al Pacino, Dog Day Afternoon Maximilian Schell, The Man in the Glass Booth James Whitmore, Give ‘em Hell, Harry! |
| 1976 | Peter Finch, Network | Robert De Niro, Taxi Driver
Giancarlo Giannini, Seven Beauties William Holden, Network Sylvester Stallone, Rocky |
| 1977 | Richard Dreyfuss, The Goodbye Girl | Woody Allen, Annie Hall
Richard Burton, Equus Marcello Mastroianni, A Special Day John Travolta, Saturday Night Fever |
| 1978 | Jon Voight, Coming Home | Warren Beatty, Heaven Can Wait
Gary Busey, The Buddy Holly Story Robert De Niro, The Deer Hunter Laurence Olivier, The Boys From Brazil |
| 1979 | Dustin Hoffman, Kramer vs. Kramer | Jack Lemmon, The China Syndrome
Al Pacino, …And Justice for All Roy Scheider, All That Jazz Peter Sellers, Being There |
| 1980 | Robert De Niro, Raging Bull | Robert Duvall, The Great Santini
John Hurt, The Elephant Man Jack Lemmon, Tribute Peter O’Toole, The Stunt Man |
| 1981 | Henry Fonda, On Golden Pond | Warren Beatty, Reds
Burt Lancaster, Atlantic City Dudley Moore, Arthur Paul Newman, Absence of Malice |
| 1982 | Ben Kingsley, Gandhi | Dustin Hoffman, Tootsie
Jack Lemmon, Missing Paul Newman, The Verdict Peter O’Toole, My Favorite Year |
| 1983 | Robert Duvall, Tender Mercies | Michael Caine, Educating Rita
Tom Conti, Reuben, Reuben Tom Courtenay, The Dresser Albert Finney, The Dresser |
| 1984 | F. Murray Abraham, Amadeus | Jeff Bridges, Starman
Albert Finney, Under the Volcano Tom Hulce, Amadeus Sam Waterston, The Killing Fields |
| 1985 | William Hurt, The Kiss of the Spider Woman | Harrison Ford, Witness
James Garner, Murphy’s Romance Jack Nicholson, Prizzi’s Honor Jon Voight, Runaway Train |
| 1986 | Paul Newman, The Color of Money | Dexter Gordon, Round Midnight
Bob Hoskins, Mona Lisa William Hurt, Children of a Lesser God James Woods, Salvador |
| 1987 | Michael Douglas, Wall Street | William Hurt, Broadcast News
Marcello Mastroianni, Dark Eyes Jack Nicholson, Ironweed Robin Williams, Good Morning, Vietnam |
| 1988 | Dustin Hoffman, Rain Man | Gene Hackman, Mississippi Burning
Tom Hanks, Big Edward James Olmos, Stand and Deliver Max von Sydow, Pelle the Conqueror |
| 1989 | Daniel Day-Lewis, My Left Foot | Kenneth Branagh, Henry V
Tom Cruise, Born on the Fourth of July Morgan Freeman, Driving Miss Daisy Robin Williams, Dead Poet’s Society |
| 1990 | Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune | Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves
Robert De Niro, Awakenings Gérard Depardieu, Cyrano de Bergerac Richard Harris, The Field |
| 1991 | Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs | Warren Beatty, Bugsy
Robert De Niro, Cape Fear Nick Nolte, The Prince of Tides Robin Williams, The Fisher King |
| 1992 | Al Pacino, Scent of a Woman | Robert Downey Jr., Chaplin
Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven Stephen Rea, The Crying Game Denzel Washington, Malcolm X |
| 1993 | Tom Hanks, Philadelphia | Daniel Day-Lewis, In the Name of the Father
Laurence Fishburne, What’s Love Got to Do with It Anthony Hopkins, The Remains of the Day Liam Neeson, Schindler’s List |
| 1994 | Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump | Morgan Freeman, The Shawshank Redemption
Nigel Hawthorne, The Madness of King George Paul Newman, Nobody’s Fool John Travolta, Pulp Fiction |
| 1995 | Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas | Richard Dreyfuss, Mr. Holland’s Opus
Anthony Hopkins, Nixon Sean Penn, Dead Man Walking Massimo Troisi, Il Postino |
| 1996 | Geoffrey Rush, Shine | Tom Cruise, Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes, The English Patient Woody Harrelson, The People vs. Larry Flynt Billy Bob Thornton, Sling Blade |
| 1997 | Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets | Matt Damon, Good Will Hunting
Robert Duvall, The Apostle Peter Fonda, Ulee’s Gold Dustin Hoffman, Wag the Dog |
| 1998 | Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful | Tom Hanks, Saving Private Ryan
Ian McKellen, Gods and Monsters Nick Nolte, Affliction Edward Norton, American History X |
| 1999 | Kevin Spacey, American Beauty | Russell Crowe, The Insider
Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story Sean Penn, Sweet and Lowdown Denzel Washington, The Hurricane |
| 2000 | Russell Crowe, Gladiator | Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls
Tom Hanks, Cast Away Ed Harris, Pollock Geoffrey Rush, Quills |
| 2001 | Denzel Washington, Training Day | Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Sean Penn, I Am Sam Will Smith, Ali Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom |
| 2002 | Adrien Brody, The Pianist | Nicolas Cage, Adaptation.
Michael Caine, The Quiet American Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt |
| 2003 | Sean Penn, Mystic River | Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog Jude Law, Cold Mountain Bill Murray, Lost in Translation |
| 2004 | Jamie Foxx, Ray | Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby |
| 2005 | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote | Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck |
| 2006 | Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland | Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson Peter O’Toole, Venus Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness |
| 2007 | Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood | George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises |
| 2008 | Sean Penn, Milk | Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler |
| 2009 | Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart | George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man Morgan Freeman, Invictus Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker |
| 2010 | Colin Firth, The King’s Speech | Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network James Franco, 127 Hours |
| 2011 | Jean Dujardin, The Artist | Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Brad Pitt, Moneyball |
| 2012 | Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln | Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables Joaquin Phoenix, The Master Denzel Washington, Flight |
| 2013 | Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club | Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave |
| 2014 | Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything | Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game Michael Keaton, Birdman |
| 2015 | Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant | Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl |
| 2016 | Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea | Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic Denzel Washington, Fences |
| 2017 | Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour | Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. |
So historically, SAG is the voting body that matters most in terms of acting awards. SAG is 19/24 all-time in picking this category. Only five times did someone win SAG and not win the Oscar. Though one of those five includes Benicio Del Toro, who won SAG for Best Actor and then won the Oscar for Supporting Actor. So they’re not really wrong there.
The other four, though — 2001, Russell Crowe won SAG and Denzel won the Oscar; 2002, Daniel Day-Lewis won SAG and Adrien Brody won the Oscar; 2003, Johnny Depp won SAG and Sean Penn won the Oscar; and 2016, Denzel won SAG and Casey Affleck won the Oscar. So yeah, a group of three in a row in the early 2000s and then once in the past 15 years. Not a bad run.
Another thing I like to do that I didn’t do last year because it doesn’t really deserve an article (it’s stupid, but I enjoy it) — I do this dumb thing where I look at what positions on the nominations ballot (for the big categories only) win most of the time. It’s totally meaningless. It’s a function of spelling and who’s nominated. But I like it. So I’m gonna talk about it because I can. If you don’t think it’s interesting, skip ahead. For me, this is where I can get it out because it doesn’t matter.
So in the history of the Best Actor, here’s how the positions have fared:
#1 – 24 times
#2 – 22 times
#3 – 19 times
#4 – 10 times
#5 – 16 times
The person listed first has statistically won the most and the fourth position averages one win just about every decade. See what I mean? Pointless.
- The last #1 to win was Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
- The last #2 to win was Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
- The last #3 to win was Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- The last #4 to win was Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- The last #5 to win was Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
This year’s category is:
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
So based on that stupid statistics game up here, the way the category should end up is: 1) Bale, 2) Cooper, 3) Dafoe, 4) Mortensen, 5) Malek. And that’s not how this is gonna go.
Anyway, this category was pretty much locked all the way through. There wasn’t a whole lot in the way of surprise here. Bale, Cooper, Malek and Mortensen hit all the major precursors and there was no surprise for their nominations the entire way. That fifth spot, though, that was up for discussion. John David Washington got a SAG nomination and a Globes nomination. Willem Dafoe and Ethan Hawke both got BFCA nominations. Steve Coogan got a BAFTA nomination, but no one thought that was gonna happen. And then everyone else only managed a Globe nomination, which is about as good as raffle ticket at a baseball game. Good luck assuming that’s automatically gonna come in. So really, it was Washington, Dafoe or Hawke. I assumed based on stature Dafoe was the favorite, since SAG is kinda broad and tends to go populist. Hawke didn’t catch anything, so I didn’t see that happening. It seemed like either Dafoe or Washington, and Dafoe made the most sense. But Washington had the movie with a lot of overall support and another actor nominated. So it was tight, but in the end the actor who made the most sense got on.
So at the start of the season, you thought, “Christian Bale has this one easy.” He won the Globe for Comedy, but then Rami Malek won for Drama. Which was unexpected. But you thought, “Okay, sure.” Then Bale won BFCA, and things seemed back on track. But now… SAG and BAFTA both go to Rami Malek. It’s definitely shaping up to be an interesting Oscar night.
Rankings:
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate — He is his film’s only nomination, and does anyone think he’s gonna get any real support in the end? Could you make a case for him over anyone else here? I can’t. So he’s going fifth, even though I love that he got nominated for this performance and has been nominated two years running. But that’s all he’s going home with, sadly.
4. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born — It’s funny how this role is always an Oscar magnet. Guaranteed to get its actor nominated most of the time (sorry, Kris Kristofferson. But you also gave yours in perhaps the Best Actor year ever, so shit happens), but not really anything more. None of the Star Is Born films won any acting awards. Of course the big one is that Judy Garland/Grace Kelly year, but otherwise, they’ve never won. And the guys always take a backseat to the women, because that’s the story. The female lead is the glamorous part, even though the male one is the showy acting role. Still, Cooper missed out on the Globe, which was looked at as his one “given” throughout the season. And he’s never recovered. Looks like he’s gonna end up going home empty-handed when all is said and done. Star Is Born has eight nominations, and the only two it looks on solid ground for are Original Song and maybe Sound Mixing. Actress is up in the air (and looking less likely as time goes on). Picture seems extremely unlikely. Screenplay seems unlikely. Supporting Actor is extremely unlikely. Cinematography also seems nearly impossible. And they left him off Director, which is also a shame. You’d think that snub would funnel more votes for him here, but I don’t know if anyone feels the urge to vote for him. I feel like he gets the applause and the respect, but none of the votes. Look at everyone who’s left. I feel like they make stronger cases for themselves. I mean, maybe you can put him third. Maybe. Because only two people are gonna have precursors when all is said and done. But he’s lost to Bale and Malek every step of the way, and he lost to Malek in the one category you thought was his. That’s not a very good case for me for any higher than fourth.
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book — There’s really no case for him over Bradley Cooper except overall film support. He’s lost to Bale and Malek every step of the way too. What he has going for him is a PGA win for his film (meaning it’s in play for Picture), Mahershala Ali likely winning Supporting Actor, and a possible Screenplay win. It’ll probably lose Editing, unless they go all in on it. But without a Director nomination, that seems unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. I can’t see him somehow winning without any precursors. And since these rankings are all about where things are at the moment, who sees him any higher than third at the highest? He only even gets this high on tiebreaker.
2. Christian Bale, Vice — He’s got the Globe for Comedy and BFCA. He lost the big two to Malek, so there’s nothing on paper that says he should be anything other than a second choice here. He’s great in the role and the film has more overall support than Malek’s, so I’m not gonna rule out him winning. But while the Casey Affleck/Denzel year had me going, “Casey’s gonna win,” I could make an argument for that on paper. Affleck had BAFTA and BFCA and Denzel had the Globe and SAG. And SAG is a much bigger, more broad voting body. Here, SAG and BAFTA went Malek’s way. You know the last time we had that exact combination of precursors? 2014. Eddie Redmayne vs. Michael Keaton. And Bale is currently the Michael Keaton. Hard to see him as anything other than the second choice.
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody — SAG win (19/24 all time), BAFTA win, Globes win in Drama. So all Bale really has on him is BFCA. He’s the favorite. Right now this is his category to lose. Hell, SAG and BAFTA, that shit is usually automatic. I guess the case for Bale to still be a contender is the fact that you could say BAFTA voted for Freddie Mercury and SAG is broad. But that doesn’t answer everything. I think this is 75/25 at best, with Malek seeming like the probable winner. Either way, he’s currently the clubhouse leader, and we’re almost at the end of regulation.
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