So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
Today is Best Original Score. The most sensuous of the categories. The “Let’s put on the Quiet Place soundtrack and chill” category. Happy Valentine’s Day, folks.
| Year | Best Original Score Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1934 | One Night of Love | The Gay Divorcee
The Lost Patrol |
| 1935 | The Informer | Captain Blood
Mutiny on the Bounty Peter Ibbetson |
| 1936 | Anthony Adverse | The Charge of the Light Brigade
The Garden of Allah The General Died at Dawn Winterset |
| 1937 | One Hundred Men and a Girl | The Hurricane
In Old Chicago The Life of Emile Zola Lost Horizon Make a Wish Maytime Portia on Trial The Prisoner of Zenda Quality Street Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Something to Sing About Souls at Sea Way Out West |
| 1938 | The Adventures of Robin Hood | Army Girl
Block-Heads Blockade Breaking the Ice The Cowboy and the Lady If I Were King Marie Antoinette Pacific Liner Suez The Young in Heart |
| 1939 | Original: The Wizard of Oz
Scoring: Stagecoach |
Original: Dark Victory
Eternally Yours Golden Boy Gone With the Wins Gulliver’s Travels The Man in the Iron Mask Man of Conquest Mr. Smith Goes to Washington Nurse Edith Cavell Of Mice and Men The Rains Came Wuthering Heights Scoring: Babes in Arms |
| 1940 | Original Score: Pinocchio
Scoring: Tin Pan Alley |
Original Score: Arizona
The Dark Command The Fight for Life The Great Dictator The Howards of Virginia The Letter The Long Voyage Home The Mark of Zorro My Favorite Wife North West Mounted Police One Million B.C. Our Town Rebecca The Thief of Bagdad Waterloo Bridge Scoring: Arise, My Love Hit Parade of 1941 Irene Our Town The Sea Hawk Second Chorus Spring Parade Strike Up the Band |
| 1941 | Dramatic: The Devil and Daniel Webster
Musical: Dumbo |
Dramatic: Back Street
Ball of Fire Cheers for Miss Bishop Citizen Kane Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Hold Back the Dawn How Green Was My Valley King of the Zombies Ladies in Retirement The Little Foxes Lydia Mercy Island Sergeant York So Ends Our Night Sundown Suspicion Tanks a Million That Uncertain Feeling This Woman is Mine Musical: All-American Co-Ed Birth of the Blues Buck Privates The Chocolate Soldier Ice-Capades The Strawberry Blonde Sun Valley Serenade Sunny You’ll Never Get Rich |
| 1942 | Dramatic or Comedy: Now, Voyager
Musical: Yankee Doodle Dandy |
Dramatic or Comedy: Arabian Knights
Bambi The Black Swan The Corsican Brothers Flying Tigers The Gold Rush I Married a Witch Joan of Paris Jungle Book Klondike Fury The Pride of the Yankees Random Harvest The Shanghai Gesture Silver Queen Take a Letter, Darling The Talk of the town To Be or Not to Be Musical: Flying with Music For Me and My Gal Holiday Inn It Started with Eve Johnny Doughboy My Gal Sal You Were Never Lovelier |
| 1943 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Song of Bernadette
Musical: This Is the Army |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Amazing Mrs. Holliday
Casablanca Commandos Strike at Dawn The Fallen Sparrow For Whom the Bell Tolls Hangmen Also Die Hi Diddle Diddle In Old Oklahoma Johnny Come Lately The Kansan Lady of Burlseque Madame Curie The Moon and Sixpence The North Star Victory Through Air Power Musical: Coney Island Hit Parade of 1943 Phantom o the Opera Saludos Amigos The Sky’s the Limit Something to Shout About Stage Door Canteen Star Spangled Rhythm Thousands Cheer |
| 1944 | Dramatic or Comedy: Since You Went Away
Musical: Cover Girl |
Dramatic or Comedy: Address Unknown
The Adventures of Mark Twain The Bridge of San Luis Rey Casanova Brown Christmas Holiday Double Indemnity The Fighting Seabees The Hairy Ape It Happened Tomorrow Jack London Kismet None but the Lonely Heart The Princess and the Pirate Summer Storm Three Russian Girls Up in Mabel’s Room Voice in the Wind Wilson Woman of the Town Musical: Brazil Higher and Higher Hollywood Canteen Irish Eyes Are Smiling Knickerbocker Holiday Lady in the Dark Lady, Let’s Dance Meet Me in St. Louis The Merry Monahans Minstrel Man Sensations of 1945 Song o the Open Road Up in Arms |
| 1945 | Dramatic or Comedy: Spellbound
Musical: Anchors Aweigh |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Bells of St. Mary’s
Brewster’s Millions Captain Kidd The Enchanted Cottage Flame of Barbary Coast G.I. Honeymoon The Story of G.I. Joe Guest in the House Guest Wife The Keys of the Kingdom The Lost Weekend Love Letters The Man Who Walked Alone Objective, Burma! Paris-Underground A Song to Remember The Southerner This Love of Ours The Valley of Decision The Woman in the Window Musical: Belle of the Yukon Can’t Help Singing Hitchhike to Happiness Incendiary Blonde Rhapsody in Blue State Fair Sunbonnet Sue The Three Caballeros Tonight and Every night Why Girls Leave Home Wonder Man |
| 1946 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Best Years of Our Lives
Musical: The Jolson Story |
Dramatic or Comedy: Anna and the King of Siam
Henry V Humoresque The Killers Musical: Blue Skies Centennial Summer The Harvey Girls Night and Day |
| 1947 | Dramatic or Comedy: A Double Life
Musical: Mother Wore Tights |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Bishop’s Wife
Captain from Castile Forever Amber Life with Father Musical: Fiesta My Wild Irish Rose Road to Rio Song of the South |
| 1948 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Red Shoes
Musical: Easter Parade |
Dramatic or Comedy: Hamlet
Joan of Arc Johnny Belinda The Snake Pit Musical: The Emperor Waltz The Pirate Romance on the High Seas When My Baby Smiles at Me |
| 1949 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Heiress
Musical: On the Town |
Dramatic or Comedy: Beyond the Forest
Champion Musical: Jolson Sings Again Look for the Silver Lining |
| 1950 | Dramatic or Comedy: Sunset Boulevard
Musical: Annie Get Your Gun |
Dramatic or Comedy: All About Eve
The Flame and the Arros No Sad Songs for Me Samson and Delilah Musical: Cinderella I’ll Get By Three Little Words The West Point Story |
| 1951 | Dramatic or Comedy: A Place in the Sun
Musical: An American in Paris |
Dramatic or Comedy: David and Bathsheba
Death of a Salesman Quo Vadis A Streetcar Named Desire Musical: Alice in Wonderland The Great Caruso On the Riviera Show Boat |
| 1952 | Dramatic or Comedy: High Noon
Musical: With a Song in My Heart |
Dramatic or Comedy: Ivanhoe
The Miracle of Oour Lady of Fantima The Thief Viva Zapata! Musical: Hans Christian Anderson The Jazz Singer The Medium Singin’ in the Rain |
| 1953 | Dramatic or Comedy: Lili
Musical: Call Me Madam |
Dramatic or Comedy: Above and Beyond
From Here to Eternity Julius Caesar This is Cinerama Musical: The Band Wagon Calamity Jane The 5,000 Fingers of Dr. T Kiss Me Kate |
| 1954 | Dramatic or Comedy: The High and the Mighty
Musical: Seven Brides for Seven Brothers |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Caine Mutiny
Genevieve On the Waterfront The Silver Chalice Musical: Carmen Jones The Glenn Miller Story A Star is Born There’s No Business Like Show Business |
| 1955 | Dramatic or Comedy: Love is a Many-Splendored Thing
Musical: Oklahoma! |
Dramatic or Comedy: Battle Cry
The Man with the Golden Arm Picnic The Rose Tattoo Musical: Daddy Long Legs Guys and Dolls It’s Always Fair Weather Love Me or Leave Me |
| 1956 | Dramatic or Comedy: Around the World in 80 Days
Musical: The King and I |
Dramatic or Comedy: Anastasia
Between Heaven and Hell Giant The Rainmaer Musical: The Best Things in Life Are Free The Eddy Duchin Story High Society Meet Me in Las Vegas |
| 1957 | The Bridge on the River Kwai | An Affair to Remember
Boy on a Dolphin Perri Raintree County |
| 1958 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Old Man and the Sea
Musical: Gigi |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Big Country
Separate Tables White Wilderness The Young Lions Musical: The Bolshoi Ballet Damn Tankees Mardi Gras South Pacific |
| 1959 | Dramatic or Comedy: Ben-Hur
Musical: Porgy and Bess |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Diary of Anne Frank
The Nun’s Story On the Beach Pillow Talk Musical: The Five Pennies Li’l Abner Say One for Me Sleeping Beauty |
| 1960 | Dramatic or Comedy: Exodus
Musical: Song without End (The Story of Franz Liszt) |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Alamo
Elmer Gantry The Magnificent Seven Spartacus Musical: Bells Are Ringing Can-Can Let’s Make Love Pepe |
| 1961 | Dramatic or Comedy: Breakfast at Tiffany’s
Musical: West Side Story |
Dramatic or Comedy: El Cid
Fanny The Guns of Navarone Summer and Smoke Musical: Babes in Toyland Flower Drum Song Khovanshchina Paris Blues |
| 1962 | Original: Lawrence of Arabia
Music-adaptation or treatment: The Music Man |
Original: Freud
Mutiny on the Bounty Taras Bulba To Kill a Mockingbird Music-adaptation or treatment: Billy Rose’s Jumbo Gigot Gypsy The Wonderful World of the Brothers Grimm |
| 1963 | Original: Tom Jones
Music-adaptation or treatment: Irma la Douce |
Original: Cleopatra
55 Days at Peking How the West Was Won It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World Music-adaptation or treatment: Bye Bye Birdie A New Kind of Love Sundays and Cybele The Sword in the Stone |
| 1964 | Original: Mary Poppins
Music-adaptation or treatment: My Fair Lady |
Original: Becket
The Fall of the Roman Empire Hugh… Hush, Sweet Charlotte The Pink Panther Music-adaptation or treatment: A Hard Day’s Night Mary Poppins Robin and the 7 Hoods The Unsinkable Molly Brown |
| 1965 | Original: Doctor Zhivago
Music-adaptation or treatment: The Sound of Music |
Original: The Agony and the Ecstasy
The Greatest Story Ever Told A Patch of Blue The Umbrellas of Cherbourg Music-adaptation or treatment: Cat Ballou The Pleasure Seekers A Thousand Clowns The Umbrellas of Cherbourg |
| 1966 | Original: Born Free
Music-adaptation or treatment: A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum |
Original: The Bible: In the Beginning
Hawaii The Sand Pebbles Who’s Afraid of the Virginia Woolf? Music-adaptation or treatment: The Gospel According to St. Matthew Return of the Seven The Singing Nun Stop the World – I Want to Get Off |
| 1967 | Original: Thoroughly Modern Millie
Music-adaptation or treatment: Camelot |
Original: Cool Hand Luke
Doctor Dolittle Far from the Madding Crowd In Cold Blood Music-adaptation or treatment: Doctor Dolittle Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner Thoroughly Modern Millie Valley of the Dolls |
| 1968 | Original: The Lion in Winter
Musical: Oliver! |
Original: The Fox
Planet of the Apes The Shoes of the Fisherman The Thomas Crown Affair Musical: Finian’s Rainbow Funny Girl Star! The Young Girls of Rochefort |
| 1969 | Original: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Musical: Hello, Dolly! |
Original: Anne of the Thousand Days
The Reivers The Secret of Santa Vittoria The Wild Bunch Musical: Goodbye, Mr. Chips Paint Your Wagon Sweet Charity They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? |
| 1970 | Original: Love Story
Original Song Score: Let It Be |
Original: Airport
Cromwell Patton I Girasoli Original Song Score: The Baby Maker A Boy Named Charlie Brown Darling Lili Scrooge |
| 1971 | Dramatic: Summer of ‘42
Song Score and Adaptation: Fiddler on the Roof |
Dramatic: Mary, Queen of Scots
Nicholas and Alexandra Shaft Straw Dogs Song Score and Adaptation: Bedknobs and Broomsticks The Boy Friend Tchaikovsky Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory |
| 1972 | Dramatic: Limelight
Song Score and Adaptation: Cabaret |
Dramatic: The Godfather (nomination withdrawn)
Images Napoleon and Samantha The Poseidon Adventure Sleuth Song Score and Adaptation: Lady Sings the Blues Man of La Mancha |
| 1973 | Dramatic: The Way We Were
Song Score and Adaptation: The Sting |
Dramatic: Cinderella Liberty
The Day of the Dolphin Papillon A Touch of Class Song Score and Adaptation: Jesus Christ Superstar Tom Sawyer |
| 1974 | Dramatic: The Godfather Part II
Song Score and Adaptation: The Great Gatsby |
Dramatic: Chinatown
Murder on the Orient Express Shanks The Towering Inferno Song Score and Adaptation: The Little Prince Phantom of the Paradise |
| 1975 | Dramatic: Jaws
Song Score and Adaptation: Barry Lyndon |
Dramatic: Birds Do It, Bees Do It
Bite the Bullet One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest The Wind and the Lion Song Score and Adaptation: Funny Lady Tommy |
| 1976 | Dramatic: The Omen
Song Score and Adaptation: Bound for Glory |
Dramatic: Obsession
The Outlaw Josey Wales Taxi Driver Voyage of the Damned Song Score and Adaptation: Bugsy Malone A Star is Born |
| 1977 | Dramatic: Star Wars
Song Score and Adaptation: A Little Night Music |
Dramatic: Close Encounters of the Third Kind
Julia Mohammad, Messenger of God The Spy Who Loved Me Song Score and Adaptation: Pete’s Dragon The Slipper and the Rose |
| 1978 | Original: Midnight Express
Adaptation: The Buddy Holly Story |
Original: The Boys from Brazil
Days of Heaven Heaven Can Wait Superman Adaptation: Pretty Baby The Wiz |
| 1979 | Dramatic: A Little Romance
Song Score and Adaptation: All That Jazz |
Dramatic: The Amityville Horror
The Champ Star Trek: The Motion Picture 10 Song Score and Adaptation: Breaking Away The Muppet Movie |
| 1980 | Fame | Altered States
The Elephant Man The Empire Strikes Back Tess |
| 1981 | Chariots of Fire | Dragonslayer
On Golden Pond Ragtime Raiders of the Lost Ark |
| 1982 | Original: E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
Song Score and Adaptation: Victor Victoria |
Dramatic: Gandhi
An Officer and a Gentleman Poltergeist Sophie’s Choice Song Score and Adaptation: Annie One from the Heart |
| 1983 | Original: The Right Stuff
Song Score and Adaptation: Yentl |
Dramatic: Cross Creek
Return of the Jedi Terms of Endearment Under Fire Song Score and Adaptation: The Sting II Trading Places |
| 1984 | Dramatic: A Passage to India
Song Score: Purple Rain |
Dramatic: Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
The Natural The River Under the Volcano Song Score: The Muppets Take Manhattan Songwriter |
| 1985 | Out of Africa | Agnes of God
The Color Purple Silverado Witness |
| 1986 | Round Midnight | Aliens
Hoosiers The Mission Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home |
| 1987 | The Last Emperor | Cry Freedom
Empire of the Sun The Untouchables The Witches of Eastwick |
| 1988 | The Milagro Beanfield War | The Accidental Tourist
Dangerous Liaisons Gorillas in the Mist Rain Man |
| 1989 | The Little Mermaid | Born on the Fourth of July
The Fabulous Baker Boys Field of Dreams Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade |
| 1990 | Dances with Wolves | Avalon
Ghost Havana Home Alone |
| 1991 | Beauty and the Beast | Bugsy
The Fisher King JFK The Prince of Tides |
| 1992 | Aladdin | Basic Instinct
Chaplin Howards End A River Runs Through It |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List | The Age of Innocence
The Firm The Fugitive The Remains of the Day |
| 1994 | The Lion King | Forrest Gump
Interview with the Vampire Little Women The Shawshank Redemption |
| 1995 | Dramatic: Il Postino
Musical or Comedy: Pocahontas |
Dramatic: Apollo 13
Braveheart Nixon Sense and Sensibility Musical or Comedy: The American President Sabrina Toy Story Unstrung Heroes |
| 1996 | Dramatic: The English Patient
Musical or Comedy: Emma |
Dramatic: Hamlet
Michael Collins Shine Sleepers Musical or Comedy: The First Wives Club The Hunchback of Notre Dame James and the Giant Peach The Preacher’s Wife |
| 1997 | Dramatic: Titanic
Musical or Comedy: The Fully Monty |
Dramatic: Amistad
Good Will Hunting Kundun L.A. Confidential Musical or Comedy: Anastasia As Good As It Gets Men in Black My Best Friend’s Wedding |
| 1998 | Dramatic: Life is Beautiful
Musical or Comedy: Shakespeare in Love |
Dramatic: Elizabeth
Pleasantville Saving Private Ryan The Thin Red Line Musical or Comedy: A Bug’s Life Mulan Patch Adams The Prince of Egypt |
| 1999 | The Red Violin | American Beauty
Angela’s Ashes The Cider House Rules The Talented Mr. Ripley |
| 2000 | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Chocolat
Gladiator Malèna The Patriot |
| 2001 | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | A.I.: Artificial Intelligence
A Beautiful Mind Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone Monsters, Inc. |
| 2002 | Frida | Catch Me If You Can
Far from Heaven The Hours Road to Perdition |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Big Fish
Cold Mountain Finding Nemo House of Sand and Fog |
| 2004 | Finding Neverland | Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Lemony Snicket’s a Series of Unfortunate Events The Passion of the Christ The Village |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | The Constant Gardener
Memoirs of a Geisha Munich Pride and Prejudice |
| 2006 | Babel | The Good German
Notes on a Scandal Pan’s Labyrinth The Queen |
| 2007 | Atonement | 3:10 to Yuma
The Kite Runner Michael Clayton Ratatouille |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance Milk Wall-E |
| 2009 | Up | Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox The Hurt Locker Sherlock Holmes |
| 2010 | The Social Network | 127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon Inception The King’s Speech |
| 2011 | The Artist | The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy War Horse |
| 2012 | Life of Pi | Anna Karenina
Argo Lincoln Skyfall |
| 2013 | Gravity | The Book Thief
Her Philomena Saving Mr. Banks |
| 2014 | The Grand Budapest Hotel | The Imitation Game
Interstellar Mr. Turner The Theory of Everything |
| 2015 | The Hateful Eight | Bridge of Spies
Carol Sicario Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
| 2016 | La La Land | Jackie
Lion Moonlight Passengers |
| 2017 | The Shape of Water | Dunkirk
Phantom Thread Star Wars: The Last Jedi Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
This is one of those categories that becomes its own entity once they announce it. You have three precursors, which are generally helpful, but sometimes it’s just “that one is going to win.” This year, it’s not so simple. One of the major contenders ended up not being nominated. But we’ll get to that.
Here’s a handy chart of the three precursors (BAFTA, BFCA and the Globes) and how they went, going back to 2000. We don’t need to go back that far, since the category is very much rooted in the past five-to-seven years, but it does illuminate how things go and you can usually point to some sort of comparison
(Anything in RED was not nominated at the Oscars.)
| Year | Oscar | BAFTA | Globe | BFCA |
| 2017 | The Shape of Water | The Shape of Water | The Shape of Water | The Shape of Water |
| 2016 | La La Land | La La Land | La La Land | La La Land |
| 2015 | The Hateful Eight | The Hateful Eight | The Hateful Eight | The Hateful Eight |
| 2014 | The Grand Budapest Hotel | The Grand Budapest Hotel | The Theory of Everything | Birdman |
| 2013 | Gravity | Gravity | All Is Lost | Gravity |
| 2012 | Life of Pi | Skyfall | Life of Pi | Lincoln |
| 2011 | The Artist | The Artist | The Artist | The Artist |
| 2010 | The Social Network | The King’s Speech | The Social Network | The Social Network |
| 2009 | Up | Up | Up | Up |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire |
| 2007 | Atonement | La Vie en Rose | Atonement | There Will Be Blood |
| 2006 | Babel | Babel | The Painted Veil | The Illusionist |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | Memoirs of a Geisha | Memoirs of a Geisha | Memoirs of a Geisha |
| 2004 | Finding Neverland | The Motorcycle Diaries | The Aviator | The Aviator |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Cold Mountain | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| 2002 | Frida | The Hours | Frida | Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets & Minority Report |
| 2001 | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | Moulin Rouge! | Moulin Rouge! | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring |
| 2000 | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Gladiator | Gladiator |
Pretty much what this usually means is: if it won all three, it’s winning the Oscar. But we’re in an interesting year, which we’ll get to right now.
Best Original Score
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
The Academy had a shortlist this year of 15 scores. Of them, I don’t think anyone expected Annihilation, Crazy Rich Asians, Death of Stalin, Fantastic Beasts or Vice to make it on. So it was really 5/10 from there. Ready Player One could have made it but didn’t. Avengers didn’t seem like it would get on. A Quiet Place was a contender and just got squeezed, and Buster Scruggs seemed unlikely because Carter Burwell has never been nominated for a Coen brothers score. The only real surprise was that First Man got left off. And the minute First Man got left off, this category was left in limbo.
We are at a situation that has not happened since 2004, which is that every single precursor went to something not nominated at the Oscars. First Man won BFCA and the Globe and A Star Is Born won BAFTA. So right now, we just have five nominees and nothing else to go on.
This will be fun.
Rankings:
5. BlacKkKlansman — This is the only score that didn’t appear on most of the precursors list throughout the season and is the one that the least amount of people will have remembered from the film. I had to listen to it to remember it, and even then, barely. It’s Terrence Blanchard’s first nomination, and I don’t see this getting stray nominations. I think there’s one thing that works totally against this, which we’ll get to. But I don’t think you can consider this a solid contender for a win over everything else in this category.
4. Isle of Dogs — It’s Alexandre Desplat, coming off a second win last year, doing a Wes Anderson score, which is responsible for his first win back in 2014. He’s a contender. But it’s an animated movie, and those rarely win. Up is really the only one since Pocahontas and The Lion King and all the Disney Renaissance movies (but even those had the benefit of two Score categories for a few of them). So I see this as unlikely. Could it happen? Sure. Will I guess it or tell anyone to guess it? Absolutely not. There’s no history for this, and Desplat seems to only win when it’s clear that he can’t lose. This one just feels like a filler nomination for him. Not seeing it.
3. Mary Poppins Returns — It’s Mary Poppins. That will earn it some respect in the category. The original film won this category, not that it matters. And the composer, Marc Shaiman, has three previous nominations (though admittedly they were all in the “Comedy Score” category they had for a few years in the 90s). Could win, but I don’t see enough love and support for this one to see it taking votes away from the other two scores in this category to the point where it wins.
2. If Beale Street Could Talk — Two things. First, it’s the best score of 2018. It just is. And also, some people might feel like giving him the Oscar they thought he should have won for Moonlight. Remember when Samuel L. Jackson had to give the Oscar to La La Land over it? I do.
If people are truly voting for what the best score is, this should win. But I can’t consider it the favorite in the absence of a precursors. Especially since…
1. Black Panther — It’s got seven nominations. They’re going to look to reward it somewhere. They just are. This is the category that makes the most sense. They’re gonna look down their ballots, half of them aren’t gonna have even remembered the scores for half the shit they’ve seen, and they’re gonna go, “Well I guess here makes sense.” Which I feel is partially a racial statement in and of itself, but we’ll let that part of it go. I just feel like unless people are gonna rally around the fact that the Beale Street score is already iconic and will be in commercials and trailers for years to come (the way Moonlight’s was/is), Black Panther has to be considered the favorite in this one. And granted, part of the Black Panther score is already pretty iconic. So I think this has to be considered your most likely winner. I think this will go one of two ways, but this seems like the most likely of the two.
P.S. Does anyone care that in three instances here, a white composer will win for a score for a “black” movie? Or are we just selective in our outrage?
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