Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.
What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.
Today is Best Supporting Actress, the most locked acting category of the night. I tried to wait on it, but it’s just too easy to not do this early. We all know how this one is ending.
| Year | Best Supporting Actress Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1936 | Gale Sondergaard, Anthony Adverse | Beulah Bondi, The Gorgeous Hussy
Alice Brady, My Man Godfrey Bonita Granville, These Three Maria Ouspenskaya, Dodsworth |
| 1937 | Alice Brady, In Old Chicago | Andrea Leeds, Stage Door
Anne Shirley, Stella Dallas Claire Trevor, Dead End Dame May Whitty, Night Must Fall |
| 1938 | Fay Bainter, Jezebel | Beulah Bondi, Of Human Hearts
Billie Burke, Merrily We Live Spring Byington, You Can’t Take It With You Miliza Korjus, The Great Waltz |
| 1939 | Hattie McDaniel, Gone With the Wind | Olivia de Havilland, Gone With the Wind
Geraldine Fitzgerald, Wuthering Heights Edna May Oliver, Drums Along the Mohawk Maria Ouspenskaya, Love Affair |
| 1940 | Jane Darwell, The Grapes of Wrath | Judith Anderson, Rebecca
Ruth Hussey, The Philadelphia Story Barbara O’Neil, All This, and Heaven Too Marjorie Rambeau, Primrose Path |
| 1941 | Mary Astor, The Great Lie | Sarah Allgood, How Green Was My Valley
Patricia Collinge, The Little Foxes Teresa Wright, The Little Foxes Margaret Wycherly, Sergeant York |
| 1942 | Teresa Wright, Mrs. Miniver | Gladys Cooper, Now, Voyager
Susan Peters, Random Harvest Agnes Moorehead, The Magnificent Ambersons Dame May Whitty, Mrs. Miniver |
| 1943 | Katrina Paxinou, For Whom the Bell Tolls | Gladys Cooper, The Song of Bernadette
Paulette Goddard, So Proudly We Hail! Anne Revere, The Song of Bernadette Lucille Watson, Watch on the Rhine |
| 1944 | Ethel Barrymore, None But the Lonely Heart | Jennifer Jones, Since You Went Away
Angela Lansbury, Gaslight Aline MacMahon, Dragon Seed Agnes Moorehead, Mrs. Parkington |
| 1945 | Anne Revere, National Velvet | Eve Arden, Mildred Pierce
Ann Blyth, Mildred Pierce Angela Lansbury, The Picture of Dorian Grey Joan Lorring, The Corn is Green |
| 1946 | Anne Baxter, The Razor’s Edge | Ethel Barrymore, The Spiral Staircase
Lillian Gish, Duel in the Sun Flora Robson, Saratoga Trunk Gale Sondergaard, Anna and the King of Siam |
| 1947 | Celeste Holm, Gentleman’s Agreement | Ethel Barrymore, The Paradine Case
Gloria Grahame, Crossfire Marjoria Main, The Egg and I Anne Revere, Gentleman’s Agreement |
| 1948 | Claire Trevor, Key Largo | Barbara Bel Geddes, I Remember Mama
Ellen Corby, I Remember Mama Agnes Moorehead, Johnny Belinda Jean Simmons, Hamlet |
| 1949 | Mercedes McCambridge, All the King’s Men | Ethel Barrymore, Pinky
Celeste Holm, Come to the Stable Elsa Lanchester, Come to the Stable Ethel Waters, Pinky |
| 1950 | Josephine Hull, Harvey | Hope Emerson, Caged
Celeste Holm, All About Eve Susan Olson, Sunset Boulevard Thelma Ritter, All About Eve |
| 1951 | Kim Hunter, A Streetcar Named Desire | Joan Blondell, The Blue Veil
Mildred Dunnock, Death of a Salesman Lee Grant, Detective Story Thelma Ritter, The Mating Season |
| 1952 | Gloria Grahame, The Bad and the Beautiful | Jean Hagan, Singin’ in the Rain
Collette Marchand, Moulin Rouge Terry Moore, Come Back, Little Sheba Thelma Ritter, With a Song in My Heart |
| 1953 | Donna Reed, From Here to Eternity | Grace Kelly, Mogambo
Geraldine Page, Hondo Marjorie Rambeau, Torch Song Thelma Ritter, Pickup on South Street |
| 1954 | Eva Marie Saint, On the Waterfront | Nina Foch, Executive Suite
Katy Jurado, Executive Suite Jan Sterling, The High and the Mighty Claire Trevor, The High and the Mighty |
| 1955 | Jo Van Fleet, East of Eden | Betsy Blair, Marty
Peggy Lee, Pete Kelly’s Blues Marisa Pavan, The Rose Tattoo Natalie Wood, Rebel Without a Cause |
| 1956 | Dorothy Malone, Written on the Wind | Midred Dunnock, Baby Doll
Eileen Heckart, The Bad Seed Mercedes McCambridge, Giant Patty McCormack, The Bad Seed |
| 1957 | Miyoshi Umeki, Sayonara | Carolyn Jones, The Bachelor Party
Elsa Lanchester, Witness for the Prosecution Hope Lange, Peyton Place Diane Varsi, Peyton Place |
| 1958 | Wendy Hiller, Separate Tables | Peggy Cass, Autie Mame
Martha Hyer, Some Came Running Maureen Stapleton, Lonelyhearts Cara Williams, The Defiant Ones |
| 1959 | Shelley Winters, The Diary of Anne Frank | Hermione Baddeley, Room at the Top
Susan Kohner, Imitation of Life Juanita Moore, Imitation of Life Thelma Ritter, Pillow Talk |
| 1960 | Shirley Jones, Elmer Gantry | Glynis Johns, The Sundowners
Shirley Knight, The Dark at the Top of the Stairs Janet Leigh, Psycho Mary Ure, Sons and Lovers |
| 1961 | Rita Moreno, West Side Story | Fay Bainter, The Children’s Hour
Judy Garland, Judgment at Nuremberg Lotte Lenya, The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone Una Merkel, Summer and Smoke |
| 1962 | Patty Duke, The Miracle Worker | Mary Badham, To Kill a Mockingbird
Shirley Knight, Sweet Bird of Youth Angela Lansbury, The Manchurian Candidate Thelma Ritter, Birdman of Alcatraz |
| 1963 | Margaret Rutherford, The V.I.P.s | Diane Cilento, Tom Jones
Edith Evans, Tom Jones Joyce Redman, Tom Jones Lilia Skala, Lilies of the Field |
| 1964 | Lila Kedrova, Zorba the Greek | Gladys Cooper, My Fair Lady
Edith Evans, The Chalk Garden Grayson Hall, The Night of the Iguana Agnes Moorehead, Hush… Hush, Sweet Charlotte |
| 1965 | Shelley Winters, A Patch of Blue | Ruth Gordon, Inside Daisy Clover
Joyce Redman, Othello Maggie Smith, Othello Peggy Wood, The Sound of Music |
| 1966 | Sandy Dennis, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? | Wendy Hiller, A Man for All Seasons
Jocelyne LaGarde, Hawaii Vivien Merchant, Alfie Geraldine Page, You’re a Big Boy Now |
| 1967 | Estelle Parsons, Bonnie and Clyde | Carol Channing, Thoroughly Modern Millie
Mildred Natwick, Barefoot in the Park Beah Richards, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner Katharine Ross, The Graduate |
| 1968 | Ruth Gordon, Rosemary’s Babby | Lynn Carlin, Faces
Sondra Locke, The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter Kay Medford, Funny Girl Estelle Parsons, Rachel, Rachel |
| 1969 | Goldie Hawn, Cactus Flower | Cahterine Burns, Last Summer
Dyan Cannon, Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice Sylvia Miles, Midnight Cowboy Susanna York, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? |
| 1970 | Helen Hayes, Airport | Karen Black, Five Easy Pieces
Lee Grant, The Landlord Sally Kellerman, MASH Maureen Stapleton, Airport |
| 1971 | Cloris Leachman, The Last Picture Show | Ann-Margret, Carnal Knowledge
Ellen Burstyn, The Last Picture Show Barbara Harris, Who Is Harry Kellerman and Why Is He Saying Those Terrible Things About Me? Margaret Leighton, The Go-Between |
| 1972 | Eileen Heckart, Butterflies are Free | Jeannie Berlin, The Heartbreak Kid
Geraldine Page, Pete ‘n’ Tillie Susan Tyrrell, Fat City Shelley Winters, The Poseidon Adventure |
| 1973 | Tatum O’Neal, Paper Moon | Linda Blair, The Exorcist
Candy Clark, American Graffiti Madeline Kahn, Paper Moon Sylvia Sidney, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams |
| 1974 | Ingrid Begman, Murder on the Orient Express | Valentina Cortese, Day for Night
Madeline Kahn, Blazing Saddles Diane Ladd, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore Talia Shire, The Godfather Part II |
| 1975 | Lee Grant, Shampoo | Ronee Blakley, Nashville
Sylvia Miles, Farewell, My Lovely Lily Tomlin, Nashville Brenda Vaccaro, Jacqueline Susann’s Once is Not Enough |
| 1976 | Beatrice Straight, Network | Jane Alexander, All the President’s Men
Jodie Foster, Taxi Driver Lee Grant, Voyage of the Damned Piper Laurie, Carrie |
| 1977 | Vanessa Redgrave, Julia | Leslie Browne, The Turning Point
Quinn Cummings, The Goodbye Girl Melinda Dillon, Close Encounters of the Third Kind Tuesday Weld, Looking for Mr. Goodbar |
| 1978 | Maggie Smith, California Suite | Dyan Cannon, Heaven Can Wait
Penelope Milford, Coming Home Maureen Stapleton, Interiors Meryl Streep, The Deer Hunter |
| 1979 | Meryl Streep, Kramer vs. Kramer | Jane Alexander, Kramer vs. Kramer
Barbara Barrie, Breaking Away Candice Bergen, Starting Over Mariel Heminway, Manhattan |
| 1980 | Mary Steenburgen, Melvin and Howard | Eileen Brennan, Private Benjamin
Eva Le Gallienne, Resurrection Cathy Moriarty, Raging Bull Diana Scarwid, Inside Moves |
| 1981 | Maureen Stapleton, Reds | Melinda Dillon, Absence of Malice
Jane Fonda, On Golden Pond Joan Hackett, The Last Laugh Elizabeth McGovern, Ragtime |
| 1982 | Jessica Lange, Tootsie | Glenn Close, The World According to Garp
Teri Garr, Tootsie Kim Stanley, Frances Lesley Ann Warren, Victor Victoria |
| 1983 | Linda Hunt, The Year of Living Dangerously | Cher, Silkwood
Glenn Close, The Big Chill Amy Irving, Yentl Alfre Woodard, Cross Creek |
| 1984 | Peggy Ashcroft, A Passage to India | Glenn Close, The Natural
Lindsay Crouse, Places in the Heart Christine Lahti, Swing Shift Geraldine Page, The Pope of Greenwich Village |
| 1985 | Anjelica Huston, Prizzi’s Honor | Margaret Avery, The Color Purple
Amy Madigan, Twice in a Lifetime Meg Tilly, Agnes of God Oprah Winfrey, The Color Purple |
| 1986 | Dianne Wiest, Hannah and Her Sisters | Tess Harper, Crimes of the Heart
Piper Laurie, Children of a Lesser God Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, The Color of Money Maggie Smith, A Room with a Vier |
| 1987 | Olympia Dukakis, Moonstruck | Norma Aleandro, Gaby: A True Story
Anne Archer, Fatal Attraction Anne Ramsey, Throw Momma from the Train Ann Sothern, The Whales of August |
| 1988 | Geena Davis, The Accidental Tourist | Joan Cusack, Working Girl
Frances McDormand, Mississippi Burning Michelle Pfeiffer, Dangerous Liaisons Sigourney Weaver, Working Girl |
| 1989 | Brenda Fricker, My Left Foot | Anjelica Huston, Enemies, a Love Story
Lena Olin, Enemies, a Love Story Julia Roberts, Steel Magnolias Dianne Wiest, Parenthood |
| 1990 | Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost | Annette Bening, The Grifters
Lorraine Bracco, Goodfellas Diane Ladd, Wild at Heart Mary McDonnell, Dances with Wolves |
| 1991 | Mercedes Ruehl, The Fisher King | Diane Ladd, Rambling Rose
Juliette Lewis, Cape Fear Kate Nelligan, The Prince of Tides Jessica Tandy, Fried Green Tomatoes |
| 1992 | Marisa Tomei, My Cousin Vinny | Judy Davis, Husbands and Wives
Joan Plowright, Enchanted April Vanessa Redgrave, Howards End Miranda Richardson, Damage |
| 1993 | Anna Paquin, The Piano | Holly Hunter, The Firm
Rosie Perez, Fearless Winona Ryder, The Age of Innocence Emma Thompson, In the Name of the Father |
| 1994 | Dianne Wiest, Bullets over Broadway | Rosemary Harris, Tom & Viv
Helen Mirren, The Madness of King George Uma Thurman, Pulp Fiction Jennifer Tilly, Bullets over Broadway |
| 1995 | Mira Sorvino, Mighty Aphrodite | Joan Allen, Nixon
Kathleen Quinlan, Apollo 13 Mare Winningham, Georgia Kate Winslet, Sense an Sensibility |
| 1996 | Juliette Binoche, The English Patient | Joan Allen, The Crucible
Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces Barbara Hershey, Portrait of a Lady Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets & Lies |
| 1997 | Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential | Joan Cusack, In & Out
Minnie Driver, Good Will Hunting Julianne Moore, Boogie Nights Gloria Stuart, Titanic |
| 1998 | Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love | Kathy Bates, Primary Colors
Brenda Blethyn, Little Voice Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jackie Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsterds |
| 1999 | Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted | Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry |
| 2000 | Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock | Judi Dench, Chocolat
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous Frances McDormand, Almost Famous Julie Walters, Billy Elliot |
| 2001 | Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind | Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
Maggie Smith, Gosford Park Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom Kate Winslet, Iris |
| 2002 | Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago | Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Queen Latifah, Chicago Julianne Moore, The Hours Meryl Streep, Adaptation |
| 2003 | Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain | Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River Holly Huntet, Thirteen |
| 2004 | Cate Blanchett, The Aviator | Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda Natalie Portman, Closer |
| 2005 | Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener | Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote Frances McDormand, North Country Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain |
| 2006 | Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls | Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine Rinko Kikuchi, Babel |
| 2007 | Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton | Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster Saoirse Ronan, Atonement Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone |
| 2008 | Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Amy Adams, Doubt
Viola Davis, Doubt Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler |
| 2009 | Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire | Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air |
| 2010 | Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom |
| 2011 | Octavia Spencer, The Help | Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs |
| 2012 | Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables | Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln Helen Hunt, The Sessions Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook |
| 2013 | Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave | Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle Julia Roberts, August: Osage County June Squibb, Nebraska |
| 2014 | Patricia Arquette, Boyhood | Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game Emma Stone, Birdman Meryl Streep, Into the Woods |
| 2015 | Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
|
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol Rachel McAdams, Spotlight Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs |
| 2016 | Viola Davis, Fences | Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion Octavia Spancer, Hidden Figures Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea |
| 2017 | Allison Janney, I, Tonya | Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water |
| 2018 | Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk | Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma Emma Stone, The Favourite Rachel Weisz, The Favourite |
Well, it’s an acting category, which means SAG. SAG is the big precursor and then everything else backs it up.
Historically, SAG is 17/25 in Best Supporting Actress. Which isn’t great. But this year we don’t really need them. But it’s important to know how much we can trust them anyway.
Of their 8 misses, two of them are because of category swaps. Jennifer Connelly won SAG Best Actress in 2001 and won the Oscar for Supporting Actress. Same for Kate Winslet. She won SAG Supporting Actress for The Reader and then won Best Actress at the Oscars. So it’s kind of a ‘not applicable’ on those two. A third instance was last year, when Regina King wasn’t even nominated for SAG but was clearly winning the Oscar. She’d have won if she were nominated, but she wasn’t, so it’s a wash. Though technically they were wrong.
The other five times they missed were straight up ‘they picked the wrong person’.
- 1995, Kate Winslet wins SAG and Mira Sorvino wins the Oscar
- 1996, Lauren Bacall wins SAG and Juliette Binoche wins the Oscar
- 1998, Kathy Bates wins SAG and Judi Dench wins the Oscar
- 2000, Judi Dench wins SAG and Marcia Gay Harden wins the Oscar
- 2007, Ruby Dee wins SAG and Tilda Swinton wins the Oscar.
All five SAG winners were nominated for the Oscar and just lost. But, 2007 was the last time they were straight up wrong, and aside from a category swap and a winner not being nominated, they’ve been perfect since then.
And since they’re not overly helpful, we’ll bring in the other precursors (BAFTA, BFCA and the Globes) to see if they’ve helped:
- BAFTA had Juliette Binoche in ’96, Judi Dench in ’98, Jennifer Connelly in ’01, Tilda Swinton in ’97 and Penelope Cruz in ’08. That’s five of eight. Other three — they also had Winslet over Sorvino in ’95 and were also wrong, had Julie Walters in 2000 when everyone was wrong and Regina King wasn’t nominated lat year. So they’ve picked up most of the slack when SAG was wrong.
- BFCA, meanwhile, all they picked up was Mira Sorvino in ’95 and Regina King last year. They also had Jennifer Connelly in ’01, but otherwise got everything else wrong, save Kate Winslet, who won Supporting but won the lead Oscar.
- The Globes, now — had Sorvino, had Connelly and had King. Missed Binoche, missed Dench, missed in 2000 with everyone else and missed Swinton.
SAG and BAFTA are the two to listen to, unless, like last year, you know where it’s going and the winner wasn’t on those two. It’s pretty straightforward. But again, one person should sweep all these precursors this year, so it’s gonna be easy.
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
This was a very open category, more so than Best Actor. I truly couldn’t tell you who that fifth choice was gonna be. At the start of the season, it looked like it was gonna be Kathy Bates for sure. Within two days she won NBR and then was nominated for the Globe. And we thought, “Oh, there’s a nomination.” But then she missed BFCA. And she missed SAG, and she missed BAFTA. And you thought, “Well there goes that.”
However, the only consensus throughout the process was with Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson and Margot Robbie. Just like Best Actor, you had three and two spots open. Jennifer Lopez hit SAG, BFCA and the Globe and people thought she had a chance. But that was never going to happen. There’s always a ‘pop’ nominee that hits all three of those because all three of those are popularity contests. And after her, no one really saw a consensus fifth nominee. They split them all across the different guilds.
In the end, you knew the top three would get on, and given that Florence got BAFTA and BFCA, you kinda felt like she was gonna come along with Saoirse, especially given her high profile great performances this year all around. Which left that last spot I didn’t know what to do with. I figured they’d nominate a Parasite actress, which would explain why nothing made sense and why it didn’t add up (like last year with Roma, when de Tavira was ineligible for all the big precursors and was never getting off the smaller ones). But in the end, the veterans carried Kathy Bates through, for a not surprising, albeit boring choice and a ho-hum final category with a clear winner, who I said was winning the minute Globe nominations were announced.
Rankings:
5. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell — She’s not winning. The nomination is a surprise. It’s the film’s only nomination and no one particularly liked the film. It’s a throwaway nomination. It’s a, “Good for Kathy Bates” nomination. She already lost the only precursor she was nominated for. There’s no reason to think she’s getting votes.
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women — She’s probably third on pure performance, but I just don’t know if enough people know and like her to vote for her. They’re not gonna block-vote the film. Performances are all about what they liked best. Maybe she catches a few votes from people who hated the other choices and loved the film or loved her in Midsommar. But I can’t see her having enough visibility overall to get anywhere in this category. This is a first nomination. This is a ‘welcome to the party’. She’ll have her chances. Her talent clearly indicates that she’ll be back here soon and hopefully often. This nomination is the reward.
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell — The only reason I have her third over Florence is just because she’s been nominated before and people clearly like her. Otherwise, her film got worse reviews than Florences’ and it doesn’t feel like anyone was particularly in love with the performance. Nominating someone on every list is not the same as voting for them for the win. I can’t see them voting for her at all. On a pure performance level, I suspect Florence will get more votes. But the Oscars are never about pure performance. They’re about who you know and who you like. And I just think Margot will have more fans at this juncture than Florence, who is really only coming around to people after Midsommar and this (even though they should have known who she was from Lady Macbeth and Little Drummer Girl). It doesn’t really matter in the end, since neither has a shot without a major precursor. So until they win something, flip them however you want.
2. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit — She’s nominated twice and this seems like the performance people seemed to prefer. Plus, anyone not voting for her in Actress are gonna siphon votes here. It’s tough for double nominees because each category will steal votes from the other, since few people will actually vote for someone twice on principle. But if anyone can gather enough support to compete, it’s gonna be her. But save her winning a big precursor — save anyone winning a big precursor — we know how this is going.
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story — She was the winner the minute they announced the first category. I still think back to 2014, when they announced the first category and I went, “Patricia Arquette is winning this Oscar.” Because you can see how it’s shaping up and you can see no one else gathering enough support to take her down. And the minute she wins the first one, it’s over. And she won the Globe and BFCA so far. All she needs is one of SAG or BAFTA and it’s over. And she’s probably gonna get both. Because everyone loves Laura Dern. This is the most locked of all the acting categories, which is strange to say, because we just talked about how locked Joaquin is. And we’re gonna talk about how locked Brad is in a few days. But hey, sometimes it’s easy.
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