Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.
What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.
Today is Best Original Score. AKA John Williams’ annual poker night, because that dude is always here.
| Year | Best Original Score Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1934 | One Night of Love | The Gay Divorcee
The Lost Patrol |
| 1935 | The Informer | Captain Blood
Mutiny on the Bounty Peter Ibbetson |
| 1936 | Anthony Adverse | The Charge of the Light Brigade
The Garden of Allah The General Died at Dawn Winterset |
| 1937 | One Hundred Men and a Girl | The Hurricane
In Old Chicago The Life of Emile Zola Lost Horizon Make a Wish Maytime Portia on Trial The Prisoner of Zenda Quality Street Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Something to Sing About Souls at Sea Way Out West |
| 1938 | The Adventures of Robin Hood | Army Girl
Block-Heads Blockade Breaking the Ice The Cowboy and the Lady If I Were King Marie Antoinette Pacific Liner Suez The Young in Heart |
| 1939 | Original: The Wizard of Oz
Scoring: Stagecoach |
Original: Dark Victory
Eternally Yours Golden Boy Gone With the Wins Gulliver’s Travels The Man in the Iron Mask Man of Conquest Mr. Smith Goes to Washington Nurse Edith Cavell Of Mice and Men The Rains Came Wuthering Heights Scoring: Babes in Arms |
| 1940 | Original Score: Pinocchio
Scoring: Tin Pan Alley |
Original Score: Arizona
The Dark Command The Fight for Life The Great Dictator The Howards of Virginia The Letter The Long Voyage Home The Mark of Zorro My Favorite Wife North West Mounted Police One Million B.C. Our Town Rebecca The Thief of Bagdad Waterloo Bridge Scoring: Arise, My Love Hit Parade of 1941 Irene Our Town The Sea Hawk Second Chorus Spring Parade Strike Up the Band |
| 1941 | Dramatic: The Devil and Daniel Webster
Musical: Dumbo |
Dramatic: Back Street
Ball of Fire Cheers for Miss Bishop Citizen Kane Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Hold Back the Dawn How Green Was My Valley King of the Zombies Ladies in Retirement The Little Foxes Lydia Mercy Island Sergeant York So Ends Our Night Sundown Suspicion Tanks a Million That Uncertain Feeling This Woman is Mine Musical: All-American Co-Ed Birth of the Blues Buck Privates The Chocolate Soldier Ice-Capades The Strawberry Blonde Sun Valley Serenade Sunny You’ll Never Get Rich |
| 1942 | Dramatic or Comedy: Now, Voyager
Musical: Yankee Doodle Dandy |
Dramatic or Comedy: Arabian Knights
Bambi The Black Swan The Corsican Brothers Flying Tigers The Gold Rush I Married a Witch Joan of Paris Jungle Book Klondike Fury The Pride of the Yankees Random Harvest The Shanghai Gesture Silver Queen Take a Letter, Darling The Talk of the town To Be or Not to Be Musical: Flying with Music For Me and My Gal Holiday Inn It Started with Eve Johnny Doughboy My Gal Sal You Were Never Lovelier |
| 1943 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Song of Bernadette
Musical: This Is the Army |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Amazing Mrs. Holliday
Casablanca Commandos Strike at Dawn The Fallen Sparrow For Whom the Bell Tolls Hangmen Also Die Hi Diddle Diddle In Old Oklahoma Johnny Come Lately The Kansan Lady of Burlseque Madame Curie The Moon and Sixpence The North Star Victory Through Air Power Musical: Coney Island Hit Parade of 1943 Phantom o the Opera Saludos Amigos The Sky’s the Limit Something to Shout About Stage Door Canteen Star Spangled Rhythm Thousands Cheer |
| 1944 | Dramatic or Comedy: Since You Went Away
Musical: Cover Girl |
Dramatic or Comedy: Address Unknown
The Adventures of Mark Twain The Bridge of San Luis Rey Casanova Brown Christmas Holiday Double Indemnity The Fighting Seabees The Hairy Ape It Happened Tomorrow Jack London Kismet None but the Lonely Heart The Princess and the Pirate Summer Storm Three Russian Girls Up in Mabel’s Room Voice in the Wind Wilson Woman of the Town Musical: Brazil Higher and Higher Hollywood Canteen Irish Eyes Are Smiling Knickerbocker Holiday Lady in the Dark Lady, Let’s Dance Meet Me in St. Louis The Merry Monahans Minstrel Man Sensations of 1945 Song o the Open Road Up in Arms |
| 1945 | Dramatic or Comedy: Spellbound
Musical: Anchors Aweigh |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Bells of St. Mary’s
Brewster’s Millions Captain Kidd The Enchanted Cottage Flame of Barbary Coast G.I. Honeymoon The Story of G.I. Joe Guest in the House Guest Wife The Keys of the Kingdom The Lost Weekend Love Letters The Man Who Walked Alone Objective, Burma! Paris-Underground A Song to Remember The Southerner This Love of Ours The Valley of Decision The Woman in the Window Musical: Belle of the Yukon Can’t Help Singing Hitchhike to Happiness Incendiary Blonde Rhapsody in Blue State Fair Sunbonnet Sue The Three Caballeros Tonight and Every night Why Girls Leave Home Wonder Man |
| 1946 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Best Years of Our Lives
Musical: The Jolson Story |
Dramatic or Comedy: Anna and the King of Siam
Henry V Humoresque The Killers Musical: Blue Skies Centennial Summer The Harvey Girls Night and Day |
| 1947 | Dramatic or Comedy: A Double Life
Musical: Mother Wore Tights |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Bishop’s Wife
Captain from Castile Forever Amber Life with Father Musical: Fiesta My Wild Irish Rose Road to Rio Song of the South |
| 1948 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Red Shoes
Musical: Easter Parade |
Dramatic or Comedy: Hamlet
Joan of Arc Johnny Belinda The Snake Pit Musical: The Emperor Waltz The Pirate Romance on the High Seas When My Baby Smiles at Me |
| 1949 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Heiress
Musical: On the Town |
Dramatic or Comedy: Beyond the Forest
Champion Musical: Jolson Sings Again Look for the Silver Lining |
| 1950 | Dramatic or Comedy: Sunset Boulevard
Musical: Annie Get Your Gun |
Dramatic or Comedy: All About Eve
The Flame and the Arros No Sad Songs for Me Samson and Delilah Musical: Cinderella I’ll Get By Three Little Words The West Point Story |
| 1951 | Dramatic or Comedy: A Place in the Sun
Musical: An American in Paris |
Dramatic or Comedy: David and Bathsheba
Death of a Salesman Quo Vadis A Streetcar Named Desire Musical: Alice in Wonderland The Great Caruso On the Riviera Show Boat |
| 1952 | Dramatic or Comedy: High Noon
Musical: With a Song in My Heart |
Dramatic or Comedy: Ivanhoe
The Miracle of Oour Lady of Fantima The Thief Viva Zapata! Musical: Hans Christian Anderson The Jazz Singer The Medium Singin’ in the Rain |
| 1953 | Dramatic or Comedy: Lili
Musical: Call Me Madam |
Dramatic or Comedy: Above and Beyond
From Here to Eternity Julius Caesar This is Cinerama Musical: The Band Wagon Calamity Jane The 5,000 Fingers of Dr. T Kiss Me Kate |
| 1954 | Dramatic or Comedy: The High and the Mighty
Musical: Seven Brides for Seven Brothers |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Caine Mutiny
Genevieve On the Waterfront The Silver Chalice Musical: Carmen Jones The Glenn Miller Story A Star is Born There’s No Business Like Show Business |
| 1955 | Dramatic or Comedy: Love is a Many-Splendored Thing
Musical: Oklahoma! |
Dramatic or Comedy: Battle Cry
The Man with the Golden Arm Picnic The Rose Tattoo Musical: Daddy Long Legs Guys and Dolls It’s Always Fair Weather Love Me or Leave Me |
| 1956 | Dramatic or Comedy: Around the World in 80 Days
Musical: The King and I |
Dramatic or Comedy: Anastasia
Between Heaven and Hell Giant The Rainmaer Musical: The Best Things in Life Are Free The Eddy Duchin Story High Society Meet Me in Las Vegas |
| 1957 | The Bridge on the River Kwai | An Affair to Remember
Boy on a Dolphin Perri Raintree County |
| 1958 | Dramatic or Comedy: The Old Man and the Sea
Musical: Gigi |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Big Country
Separate Tables White Wilderness The Young Lions Musical: The Bolshoi Ballet Damn Tankees Mardi Gras South Pacific |
| 1959 | Dramatic or Comedy: Ben-Hur
Musical: Porgy and Bess |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Diary of Anne Frank
The Nun’s Story On the Beach Pillow Talk Musical: The Five Pennies Li’l Abner Say One for Me Sleeping Beauty |
| 1960 | Dramatic or Comedy: Exodus
Musical: Song without End (The Story of Franz Liszt) |
Dramatic or Comedy: The Alamo
Elmer Gantry The Magnificent Seven Spartacus Musical: Bells Are Ringing Can-Can Let’s Make Love Pepe |
| 1961 | Dramatic or Comedy: Breakfast at Tiffany’s
Musical: West Side Story |
Dramatic or Comedy: El Cid
Fanny The Guns of Navarone Summer and Smoke Musical: Babes in Toyland Flower Drum Song Khovanshchina Paris Blues |
| 1962 | Original: Lawrence of Arabia
Music-adaptation or treatment: The Music Man |
Original: Freud
Mutiny on the Bounty Taras Bulba To Kill a Mockingbird Music-adaptation or treatment: Billy Rose’s Jumbo Gigot Gypsy The Wonderful World of the Brothers Grimm |
| 1963 | Original: Tom Jones
Music-adaptation or treatment: Irma la Douce |
Original: Cleopatra
55 Days at Peking How the West Was Won It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World Music-adaptation or treatment: Bye Bye Birdie A New Kind of Love Sundays and Cybele The Sword in the Stone |
| 1964 | Original: Mary Poppins
Music-adaptation or treatment: My Fair Lady |
Original: Becket
The Fall of the Roman Empire Hugh… Hush, Sweet Charlotte The Pink Panther Music-adaptation or treatment: A Hard Day’s Night Mary Poppins Robin and the 7 Hoods The Unsinkable Molly Brown |
| 1965 | Original: Doctor Zhivago
Music-adaptation or treatment: The Sound of Music |
Original: The Agony and the Ecstasy
The Greatest Story Ever Told A Patch of Blue The Umbrellas of Cherbourg Music-adaptation or treatment: Cat Ballou The Pleasure Seekers A Thousand Clowns The Umbrellas of Cherbourg |
| 1966 | Original: Born Free
Music-adaptation or treatment: A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum |
Original: The Bible: In the Beginning
Hawaii The Sand Pebbles Who’s Afraid of the Virginia Woolf? Music-adaptation or treatment: The Gospel According to St. Matthew Return of the Seven The Singing Nun Stop the World – I Want to Get Off |
| 1967 | Original: Thoroughly Modern Millie
Music-adaptation or treatment: Camelot |
Original: Cool Hand Luke
Doctor Dolittle Far from the Madding Crowd In Cold Blood Music-adaptation or treatment: Doctor Dolittle Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner Thoroughly Modern Millie Valley of the Dolls |
| 1968 | Original: The Lion in Winter
Musical: Oliver! |
Original: The Fox
Planet of the Apes The Shoes of the Fisherman The Thomas Crown Affair Musical: Finian’s Rainbow Funny Girl Star! The Young Girls of Rochefort |
| 1969 | Original: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Musical: Hello, Dolly! |
Original: Anne of the Thousand Days
The Reivers The Secret of Santa Vittoria The Wild Bunch Musical: Goodbye, Mr. Chips Paint Your Wagon Sweet Charity They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? |
| 1970 | Original: Love Story
Original Song Score: Let It Be |
Original: Airport
Cromwell Patton I Girasoli Original Song Score: The Baby Maker A Boy Named Charlie Brown Darling Lili Scrooge |
| 1971 | Dramatic: Summer of ‘42
Song Score and Adaptation: Fiddler on the Roof |
Dramatic: Mary, Queen of Scots
Nicholas and Alexandra Shaft Straw Dogs Song Score and Adaptation: Bedknobs and Broomsticks The Boy Friend Tchaikovsky Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory |
| 1972 | Dramatic: Limelight
Song Score and Adaptation: Cabaret |
Dramatic: The Godfather (nomination withdrawn)
Images Napoleon and Samantha The Poseidon Adventure Sleuth Song Score and Adaptation: Lady Sings the Blues Man of La Mancha |
| 1973 | Dramatic: The Way We Were
Song Score and Adaptation: The Sting |
Dramatic: Cinderella Liberty
The Day of the Dolphin Papillon A Touch of Class Song Score and Adaptation: Jesus Christ Superstar Tom Sawyer |
| 1974 | Dramatic: The Godfather Part II
Song Score and Adaptation: The Great Gatsby |
Dramatic: Chinatown
Murder on the Orient Express Shanks The Towering Inferno Song Score and Adaptation: The Little Prince Phantom of the Paradise |
| 1975 | Dramatic: Jaws
Song Score and Adaptation: Barry Lyndon |
Dramatic: Birds Do It, Bees Do It
Bite the Bullet One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest The Wind and the Lion Song Score and Adaptation: Funny Lady Tommy |
| 1976 | Dramatic: The Omen
Song Score and Adaptation: Bound for Glory |
Dramatic: Obsession
The Outlaw Josey Wales Taxi Driver Voyage of the Damned Song Score and Adaptation: Bugsy Malone A Star is Born |
| 1977 | Dramatic: Star Wars
Song Score and Adaptation: A Little Night Music |
Dramatic: Close Encounters of the Third Kind
Julia Mohammad, Messenger of God The Spy Who Loved Me Song Score and Adaptation: Pete’s Dragon The Slipper and the Rose |
| 1978 | Original: Midnight Express
Adaptation: The Buddy Holly Story |
Original: The Boys from Brazil
Days of Heaven Heaven Can Wait Superman Adaptation: Pretty Baby The Wiz |
| 1979 | Dramatic: A Little Romance
Song Score and Adaptation: All That Jazz |
Dramatic: The Amityville Horror
The Champ Star Trek: The Motion Picture 10 Song Score and Adaptation: Breaking Away The Muppet Movie |
| 1980 | Fame | Altered States
The Elephant Man The Empire Strikes Back Tess |
| 1981 | Chariots of Fire | Dragonslayer
On Golden Pond Ragtime Raiders of the Lost Ark |
| 1982 | Original: E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
Song Score and Adaptation: Victor Victoria |
Dramatic: Gandhi
An Officer and a Gentleman Poltergeist Sophie’s Choice Song Score and Adaptation: Annie One from the Heart |
| 1983 | Original: The Right Stuff
Song Score and Adaptation: Yentl |
Dramatic: Cross Creek
Return of the Jedi Terms of Endearment Under Fire Song Score and Adaptation: The Sting II Trading Places |
| 1984 | Dramatic: A Passage to India
Song Score: Purple Rain |
Dramatic: Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
The Natural The River Under the Volcano Song Score: The Muppets Take Manhattan Songwriter |
| 1985 | Out of Africa | Agnes of God
The Color Purple Silverado Witness |
| 1986 | Round Midnight | Aliens
Hoosiers The Mission Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home |
| 1987 | The Last Emperor | Cry Freedom
Empire of the Sun The Untouchables The Witches of Eastwick |
| 1988 | The Milagro Beanfield War | The Accidental Tourist
Dangerous Liaisons Gorillas in the Mist Rain Man |
| 1989 | The Little Mermaid | Born on the Fourth of July
The Fabulous Baker Boys Field of Dreams Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade |
| 1990 | Dances with Wolves | Avalon
Ghost Havana Home Alone |
| 1991 | Beauty and the Beast | Bugsy
The Fisher King JFK The Prince of Tides |
| 1992 | Aladdin | Basic Instinct
Chaplin Howards End A River Runs Through It |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List | The Age of Innocence
The Firm The Fugitive The Remains of the Day |
| 1994 | The Lion King | Forrest Gump
Interview with the Vampire Little Women The Shawshank Redemption |
| 1995 | Dramatic: Il Postino
Musical or Comedy: Pocahontas |
Dramatic: Apollo 13
Braveheart Nixon Sense and Sensibility Musical or Comedy: The American President Sabrina Toy Story Unstrung Heroes |
| 1996 | Dramatic: The English Patient
Musical or Comedy: Emma |
Dramatic: Hamlet
Michael Collins Shine Sleepers Musical or Comedy: The First Wives Club The Hunchback of Notre Dame James and the Giant Peach The Preacher’s Wife |
| 1997 | Dramatic: Titanic
Musical or Comedy: The Fully Monty |
Dramatic: Amistad
Good Will Hunting Kundun L.A. Confidential Musical or Comedy: Anastasia As Good As It Gets Men in Black My Best Friend’s Wedding |
| 1998 | Dramatic: Life is Beautiful
Musical or Comedy: Shakespeare in Love |
Dramatic: Elizabeth
Pleasantville Saving Private Ryan The Thin Red Line Musical or Comedy: A Bug’s Life Mulan Patch Adams The Prince of Egypt |
| 1999 | The Red Violin | American Beauty
Angela’s Ashes The Cider House Rules The Talented Mr. Ripley |
| 2000 | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Chocolat
Gladiator Malèna The Patriot |
| 2001 | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | A.I.: Artificial Intelligence
A Beautiful Mind Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone Monsters, Inc. |
| 2002 | Frida | Catch Me If You Can
Far from Heaven The Hours Road to Perdition |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Big Fish
Cold Mountain Finding Nemo House of Sand and Fog |
| 2004 | Finding Neverland | Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Lemony Snicket’s a Series of Unfortunate Events The Passion of the Christ The Village |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | The Constant Gardener
Memoirs of a Geisha Munich Pride and Prejudice |
| 2006 | Babel | The Good German
Notes on a Scandal Pan’s Labyrinth The Queen |
| 2007 | Atonement | 3:10 to Yuma
The Kite Runner Michael Clayton Ratatouille |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance Milk Wall-E |
| 2009 | Up | Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox The Hurt Locker Sherlock Holmes |
| 2010 | The Social Network | 127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon Inception The King’s Speech |
| 2011 | The Artist | The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy War Horse |
| 2012 | Life of Pi | Anna Karenina
Argo Lincoln Skyfall |
| 2013 | Gravity | The Book Thief
Her Philomena Saving Mr. Banks |
| 2014 | The Grand Budapest Hotel | The Imitation Game
Interstellar Mr. Turner The Theory of Everything |
| 2015 | The Hateful Eight | Bridge of Spies
Carol Sicario Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
| 2016 | La La Land | Jackie
Lion Moonlight Passengers |
| 2017 | The Shape of Water | Dunkirk
Phantom Thread Star Wars: The Last Jedi Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
| 2018 | Black Panther | BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk Isle of Dogs Mary Poppins Returns |
This category got easier for us last year, when they started giving us a shortlist for this, rather than us figuring out from a list of like, 140 eligible scores which 30 were in contention and then guessing from there. Now they give us 15 and we have to figure out 5. Not so bad.
In terms of figuring out how it’s gonna go, I made a handy chart that shows you how it usually goes. It’s all three precursors (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes) and how they voted, going back to 2000. Really, the only thing that matters are the past handful of years. But going all the way back shows you generally what usually happens.
(Anything in RED was not nominated at the Oscars.)
| Year | Oscar | BAFTA | Globe | BFCA |
| 2018 | Black Panther | A Star Is Born | First Man | First Man |
| 2017 | The Shape of Water | The Shape of Water | The Shape of Water | The Shape of Water |
| 2016 | La La Land | La La Land | La La Land | La La Land |
| 2015 | The Hateful Eight | The Hateful Eight | The Hateful Eight | The Hateful Eight |
| 2014 | The Grand Budapest Hotel | The Grand Budapest Hotel | The Theory of Everything | Birdman |
| 2013 | Gravity | Gravity | All Is Lost | Gravity |
| 2012 | Life of Pi | Skyfall | Life of Pi | Lincoln |
| 2011 | The Artist | The Artist | The Artist | The Artist |
| 2010 | The Social Network | The King’s Speech | The Social Network | The Social Network |
| 2009 | Up | Up | Up | Up |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire |
| 2007 | Atonement | La Vie en Rose | Atonement | There Will Be Blood |
| 2006 | Babel | Babel | The Painted Veil | The Illusionist |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | Memoirs of a Geisha | Memoirs of a Geisha | Memoirs of a Geisha |
| 2004 | Finding Neverland | The Motorcycle Diaries | The Aviator | The Aviator |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Cold Mountain | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| 2002 | Frida | The Hours | Frida | Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets & Minority Report |
| 2001 | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring | Moulin Rouge! | Moulin Rouge! | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring |
| 2000 | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Gladiator | Gladiator |
Last year is an outlier because all the winners weren’t nominated (Star Is Born, it should be noted, basically won for its songs because BAFTA has one category for ‘Music’, which includes songs and score) and we had to just guess how that was gonna go. Otherwise, recently, you’ll see a lot of consensus. Which it seems we’re gonna have again this year. But first, let’s get into our category.
Best Original Score
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
This was the assumed category. Of that shortlist, you could maybe have pulled one alternate that could have made it on.
The shortlist included: Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Frozen II, Jojo Rabbit, The King, Motherless Brooklyn, Pain and Glory and Us. Of those — you knew to toss most of them out. The first Frozen wasn’t nominated and you knew this one wasn’t gonna. The Farewell is a first-time composer and no one really remembered the score to that film and the film never went anywhere. Pain and Glory — no foreign film has been nominated here since 2006, so you had to think that wasn’t happening. Endgame was clearly out. Bombshell barely had a score and the composer was never nominated before. The King is a two-time nominee, but the film never caught on and Britell isn’t at the stage yet where he gets scores on. Motherless Brooklyn is a composer they haven’t come around to yet and the film never went anywhere. Hard to see that happpening. Us is a second-time composer and more of a thriller/horror score, which isn’t really what they go for. Ford v Ferrari you had to consider, but no one really remembers that score. The real only alternative is Jojo, but Michael Giacchino has never been nominated for a non-Pixar score. And the last time he was nominated was ten years ago.
Meanwhile, John Williams was automatically on. It’s Star Wars, and he’s been nominated like, 25 of the past 29 years or something insane like that. You knew that was happening. Joker was automatic. Little Women was automatic as Alexandre Desplat. Thomas Newman’s now been nominated 15 times, so that plus 1917 was automatic. And then you had Randy Newman, who they love, for a score that was actually really memorable from Marriage Story, which they liked. It was an easy puzzle to put together. These were the obvious five scores.
Meanwhile, in terms of precursors, the Globes and BFCA have handed out already and both went to Joker. So once BAFTA follows suit, we’ll have another consensus year. If not, then we can talk. But I think we can figure this one out as-is in terms of rankings.
Rankings:
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — Just because they always nominate him doesn’t mean he’s a shoo-in to win. John Williams has 52 nominations but only 5 wins. And his last win was Schindler’s List. He’s been nominated 21 times since then and lost them all. Don’t worry, they won’t give him this because it’s the last one. It’s fine. He’s won enough. He’s the fifth choice here unless he wins BAFTA. Then we talk.
4. Marriage Story — Randy Newman’s never won for Score. He’s only ever won for Song. The score is very nice, but I can’t see people rallying around him as a winner. He feels like a fourth choice here. Maybe he’ll get some votes, but I can’t see him being winner. The last time something won Score while losing all the precursors was 2005, and it was Brokeback Mountain. Not feeling this. He’s lost the only two precursors he was up for. Like I said, he feels like a fourth choice.
3. Little Women — You have no idea how badly I wanna make him second choice. But he’s won two of the past five years. Maybe he can pull this off. He’ll need BAFTA. But I don’t think he’s getting it. And probably being the best score on this list doesn’t mean a whole lot, unfortunately, because you know no one actually listens to the damn things. So he’s a third choice unless he wins BAFTA. Would be nice, but I’m not feeling it.
2. 1917 — Thomas Newman is 0-14 so far. If he’s gonna win for anything, it could be the big war film Not that he’s got a big, sweeping, John Williams score. Because he’s not that guy. But a lot of the time this category’s all about perception anyway. So that could easily get him some votes. I wanna see if he wins BAFTA. If he wins BAFTA, then I’ll be real curious to see how the category turns out. But absent a precursor, he can’t be considered a favorite. And even so, even with a BAFTA win, he might still be second choice going into Oscar night.
1. Joker — She’s won two of the three precursors and there’s no reason to think she won’t win the last one. If she loses it, then maybe we talk about an alternate winner, especially if she loses to 1917. But until then, this is the favorite and the assumed winner of the category. Simple as that. Can’t say I loved the score, but I’m not here to talk about what I loved. I’m here to talk about what’s going to win. And right now, this has the precursors, therefore it’s the favorite. Also being forgotten about here is that Hildur Guðnadóttir is only the seventh woman ever nominated in this category and would become only the fourth woman to ever win it. Which is impressive.
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