This is new. I’ve never seen them do this before.
BAFTA released longlists of all their categories. Like, all the categories. Which means that the entire BAFTA nominees list is just gonna be a pared down version of what they released. Not sure why they did it, but I’m happy about it. Now that we’re about to get BFCA later today, it’ll be real easy to telegraph the acting categories and as other things announce we can get an idea of where things are headed even without having to wait for them.
But yeah. Let’s see what we have:
Best Film
Another Round
Da 5 Bloods
The Dig
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Mauritanian
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night In Miami…
Promising Young Woman
Soul
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The White Tiger
They shortlisted 15. Unless they’re all in on something, I suspect Another Round, The Dig, The Mauritanian, Soul and The White Tiger won’t make the final list. Which still leaves 10 movies that could make it.
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Chicago 7.
I feel like there’s a decent chance Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman and News of the World are the least likely of the ten to make it, but that’s just guesswork.
If I had to guess what their five are gonna be, I’d say: Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Mank, Nomadland, Trial of the Chicago 7. MAYBE we get something else in place of Da 5 Bloods, but I feel like those five make the most sense to me, especially with The Father being a British film. They tend to love throwing a British film on their list. But who knows. Odds are their list won’t be all that surprising and will feature the same general list as everything else.
Even now, you can almost telegraph that PGA list from this.
Outstanding British Film
Ammonite
Calm With Horses
County Lines
The Courier
David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet
The Dig
Emma.
The Father
Herself
His House
Limbo
The Mauritanian
Misbehaviour
Mogul Mowgli
Promising Young Woman
Radioactive
Rebecca
Rocks
Saint Maud
Supernova
Oh, Promising Young Woman counts as a British film. That changes the other equation. That MIGHT actually get on the Film list then. Interesting.
The Mauritanian, Supernova, Promising Young Woman, The Father, one more. That would be my guess. Unless they’re gonna do the thing where they put something on one list but not on the other, which they do not do, as 1917 won both categories last year. Ammonite feels like a no. Saint Maud is a hard maybe. The Dig, Emma, Herself, Misbehaviour. Those feel like the most likely candidates here.
Outstanding Debut
The Australian Dream
Being A Human Person
Calm with Horses
His House
Limbo
Moffie
Mogul Mowgli
Rare Beasts
Rocks
The Reason I Jump
Saint Maud
White Riot
I only know like three or four of these, but cool.
Film Not In English Language
Another Round
Bacurau
Collective
Dear Comrades!
I’m No Longer Here
The Life Ahead
Les Misérables
Minari
The Mole Agent
New Order
The Painter and the Thief
Quo Vadis, Aida?
System Crasher
The Traitor
The Truffle Hunters
Minari went foreign for them. And Les Mis only counts for this year. Hmm. But, Another Round, Collective, Dear Comrades, I’m No Longer Here, Mole Agent, and Quo Vadis Aida are the ones that are eligible for International Feature. And then Collective, Mole Agent, Painter and the Thief and Truffle Hunters are all eligible in Documentary. So there’s that. That’s really the helpful aspect of this.
If I had to guess the final five — I probably couldn’t do it, though Les Mis, Minari and Another Round all feel like they’ll get in with whatever two others they go for.
Documentary
All In: The Fight For Democracy
Athlete A
Beastie Boys Story
Becoming
Billie
Collective
Crip Camp
David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet
Dick Johnson Is Dead
The Dissident
I Am Greta
MLK/FBI
My Octopus Teacher
The Social Dilemma
The Truffle Hunters
They longlisted Beastie Boys Story! That’s awesome. But yeah, I’ve seen almost all of these on doc lists, so at least I’m familiar with all of them. Not sure what they’re ultimately gonna go for.
If I had to guess: Collective, Crip Camp, Attenborough, MLK FBI and… let’s say The Dissident. No clue. Just guessing. I don’t really track what BAFTA does for documentaries, really only when an Oscar nominee/potential winner wins here. They’re more of a bonus than a precursor.
Animated Film
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
The Willoughbys
Wolfwalkers
They only nominate three movies in this category, which is why the longlist feels like a category in itself. Last year there were four (I’m assuming because of a tie), but it should be three. And I suspect that means Over the Moon, Soul and Wolfwalkers, unless they’re gonna double-nominate Pixar. Soul is on the Best Film list, so that’s a gimme, and Wolfwalkers is a gimme even before you consider it’s from Ireland. The only real question is that third spot, and I’ll take Over the Moon over Onward, even though it should be one or the other.
Director
Another Round
The Assistant
Babyteeth
The Dig
The Father
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Mank
The Mauritanian
Minari
My Octopus Teacher
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night In Miami…
Promising Young Woman
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Rocks
Saint Maud
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The White Tiger
Oh cool for some of these. Babyteeth, Forty-Year-Old Version, The Assistant. That’s nice.
Look at Nolan sneaking on the longlist.
If I had to guess five, I’d say: Fincher for Mank, Chloe Zhao for Nomadland, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman… would they go Sorkin? They might. Regina King also feels like she might sneak on. I don’t think The Father gets the Director nod even if it gets on Picture. Nolan feels unlikely. Greengrass feels unlikely unless they throw it on the Film list as well. Lee Isaac Chung is also a distinct possibility.
I’ll be curious to see who they put on here, since this might go a long way to getting someone like Regina King on the final Oscar list. Though, as always, the DGA is the big indicator there. So it’s all speculation until we have everything in.
Original Screenplay
Ammonite
Another Round
The Assistant
Da 5 Bloods
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Promising Young Woman
Rocks
Saint Maud
Soul
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Another Round is starting to feel like it could pop up in some of these categories. But I imagine: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Chicago 7. Those feel like the most likely five to me.
Adapted Screenplay
Babyteeth
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Dig
Emma.
The Father
Hillbilly Elegy
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
The Invisible Man
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night In Miami…
Pieces of a Woman
The White Tiger
The Father, Ma Rainey, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, and then probably Mauritanian or News of the World, but maybe Charlie Kaufman can sneak on. But I feel confident about those first four unless they start to show a preference for one movie in particular that starts to get on all these categories in a show of support.
Leading Actress
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Bukky Bakray, Rocks
Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Morfydd Clark, Saint Maud
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Julia Garner, The Assistant
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan Promising, Young Woman
Wunmi Mosaku, His House
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Jessie Buckley making a longlist!
But, barring someone like Morfydd Clark getting on, your favorites here are Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan and Kate Winslet. Julia Garner is a longshot. But those other five feel like the ones to beat.
Leading Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night In Miami…
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Ralph Fiennes, The Dig
Adarsh Gourav, The White Tiger
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Cosmo Jarvis, Calm With Horses
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Steven Yeun, Minari
Oh, now this is interesting. Ahmed, Boseman, Hopkins feel like locks. Oldman also feels strong. So that leaves Hanks, Lindo, Mikkelsen, Rahim, Yeun and even maybe Fiennes (though doubtful on him) as fifth spot contenders. I can see it going any number of ways here, depending on which films end up being the most liked. Rahim could get on here and make a real play for a nomination. I feel like Mikkelsen somehow makes the most sense though. I don’t know why, but he does.
Supporting Actress
Niamh Algar, Calm With Horses
Kosar Ali, Rocks
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Priyanka Chopra Jonas, The White Tiger
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jennifer Ehle, Saint Maud
Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Ashley Madekwe, County Lines
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Youn Yuh-Jung, Youn Minari
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Bakalova, Close, Colman, Ronan, Zengel, and watch out for Youn Yuh-Jung, Amanda Seyfried and especially Ellen Burstyn.
Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Bo Burnham,Promising Young Woman
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Mauritanian
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Barry Keoghan, Calm With Horses
Alan Kim, Minari
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night In Miami…
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Look at the Chicago 7 love! I did love Langella and Rylance in that.
But I suspect you might get double Chadwick, Cohen for sure, Kaluuya probably, Odom is 50/50, Raci is 50/50, Tucci feels like he might sneak on. So unless they go double Chicago 7, I feel like it’s Chadwick, Cohen, Kaluuya, Tucci and either Odom or Raci for the final spot. That would be my guess.
Casting
Babyteeth
Calm With Horses
Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
The Mauritanian
One Night In Miami…
Pieces of a Woman
Promising Young Woman
Rocks
Saint Maud
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank better get on this. Promising Young Woman also did well. Chicago 7 maybe just because of size? Da 5 Bloods also cast well. Sound of Metal getting on would be because they cast actual deaf people, though still worthy. I mean, good for whatever gets on, but Mank better be on this. They cast that movie insanely well.
Cinematography
Ammonite
The Dig
Greyhound
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Mauritanian
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Nomadland
Rebecca
Saint Maud
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The White Tiger
Don’t know what they’re gonna go for, but Mank impressed me, News of the World looked good, Nomadland looked good, Ammonite looked solid and Midnight Sky also was pretty good. Still need to see Dig, Judas, Maud and Tiger, but feels like a ho hum year for cinematography based on this list.
Costume Design
Ammonite
The Dig
Emma.
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Misbehaviour
Mulan
News of the World
Promising Young Woman
Radioactive
Rebecca
The Secret Garden
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States Vs. Billie Holiday
Oh right. Billie Holliday. Guess they didn’t spark to that movie at all.
But — Emma for sure. Ma Rainey probably. Mank maybe. Mulan maybe. Rebecca maybe. Promising Young Woman feels likely. Misbehaviour could sneak on. The Dig I can’t say yet. All reasonable options here. But Emma and Ma Rainey feel like your leaders at the moment.
Editing
Another Round
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
The Mauritanian
News of the World
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Rocks
Saint Maud
Sound of Metal
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The White Tiger
Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, Chicago 7, maybe Da 5 Bloods, maybe Tenet. But that’s just pulling five out of my ass.
Make-up & Hair
Ammonite
Blithe Spirit
The Dig
Emma.
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio
Promising Young Woman
Rebecca
The Trial of the Chicago 7
True History of the Kelly Gang
The United States Vs. Billie Holiday
Wonder Woman 1984
Sure. Solid list, mostly I can tell you the few that won’t get on, but past that, most of these feel like contenders.
Original Score
Ammonite
Da 5 Bloods
David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet
Hillbilly Elegy
The Little Things
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Promising Young Woman
Saint Maud
Soul
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Still working my way through the scores (and haven’t heard the Little Things score or the Maud score), but the ones I know I liked are: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Midnight Sky, News of the World, Soul and Tenet. And flip either Tenet or News of the World off and I’m perfectly happy with that list.
Production Design
Ammonite
The Dig
Emma.
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Promising Young Woman
Radioactive
Rebecca
The Secret Garden
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wonder Woman 1984
Mostly solid choices here. Curious to see where they go. No guesses yet. Just wanna see.
Special Visual Effects
Da 5 Bloods
Greyhound
The Invisible Man
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
News of the World
The Old Guard
The One and Only Ivan
Pinocchio
The Secret Garden
Sonic The Hedgehog
Soul
Tenet
Wonder Woman 1984
Now THIS will be interesting.
Toss off Greyhound, Old Guard, Ivan, Pinocchio, Secret Garden and Sonic. Maybe one of them gets on, but that just feels like the easy cast-off list thus far. Da 5 Bloods doesn’t feel like it will, but maybe. Invisible Man feels like if could. Mank… depends on what they’re counting as effects. Hard to say. Midnight Sky feels like a yes. Mulan feels like a solid maybe. News of the World maybe? Practical effects are still effects. Soul… they haven’t gone animated here since Toy Story 3, so it’s hard to say for sure that will get on. Tenet feels almost certain and Wonder Woman feels likely but questionable.
Best guess for five is Midnight Sky, Tenet, Wonder Woman, Mulan and… I don’t know, Invisible Man. Pure guesswork. I’m waiting on a shortlist tomorrow.
Sound
Greyhound
The Invisible Man
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Mauritanian
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Saint Maud
Soul
Sound of Metal
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wonder Woman 1984
This will be interesting. I assume Sound of Metal and Tenet for sure. News of the World feels likely, Midnight Sky is a solid maybe. Mank also feels like it could. But I’ll be interested to see how they go. Because Soul could easily make this, as could Ma Rainey. There’s options here.
British Short Animation
Bench
Cha
Chado
The Fire Next Time
The Owl and the Pussycat
The Song of A Lost Boy
Cool.
British Short Film
The Birth Of Valerie Venus
Dad Was
Dọlápọ Is Fine
Eyelash
Lizard
Lucky Break
Miss Curvy
My Brother’s Keeper
The Present
Tic Toc
And that’s the last one.
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Honestly I’m just fascinated that we got this. There’s not really much to go over with these, since I’m not really trying to guess what I think they’re gonna do so much as looking at this new piece of information to confirm what I suspect are the major contenders in every race and the potential spoilers to look out for. If this becomes a regular thing I can start to figure out how to use it properly, but now it just feels like, “Yes, these are the handful of movies I expect to be nominated in each of the categories,” which you could’ve pretty much guessed on your own anyway.
But hey, we have them now. And more information is always good.
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