So yeah, I’ve been lax about a couple of these precursors. But VES announced today so I figured I’d just run through a few things at once and catch up to what I haven’t officially covered. Because why not?
We’ll start with the Annies, which announced almost a full month ago at this point, then get into a new guild, the Set Designers Guild, which I’ve never covered (because last year was their first set of awards) and should help us with Production Design along with the Art Directors Guild, and then end with today’s VES nominations for Visual Effects.
Also, side note, before we get into everything: because of all the craziness in the world, CAS has pushed their entire awards timeline crazy forward, so nominations won’t even be announced until March 2nd, almost a month after Oscar nominations are announced, and winners won’t be announced until three weeks after the Oscars are given out. So good thing we have a Sound shortlist this year, because we’re only getting help from MPSE and BAFTA and not CAS.
Annie Awards
Best Feature
Encanto
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
Sing 2
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Independent Feature
Belle
Flee
Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko
Pompo the Cinephile
The Summit of the Gods
Best Directing
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Writing
Belle
Flee
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Editorial
Encanto
Flee
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Music
Encanto
Luca
Poupelle of Chimney Town
Raya and the Last Dragon
Vivo
Best Production Design
Belle
Raya and the Last Dragon
Ron’s Gone Wrong
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Vivo
Best Storyboarding
The Addams Family 2
Encanto
Raya and the Last Dragon
Spirit Untamed
Vivo
Best Character Design
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
Ron’s Gone Wrong
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Vivo
Best Character Animation
Encanto
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
The Boss Baby: Family Business
Wish Dragon
Best Effects
Belle
Encanto
Raya and the Last Dragon
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Vivo
Best Voice Acting
Encanto (Stephanie Beatriz)
Encanto (John Leguizamo)
Luca (Jack Dylan Grazer)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Kelly Marie Tran)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Abbi Jacobson)
Best Animated Short
Bestia
Easter Eggs
MAALBEEK
Night Bus
Steakhouse
Best Animated Special Production
For Auld Lang Syne
La Vie de Chateau
Mum Is Pouring Rain
Namoo
The Witcher: Nightmare of the Wolf
So those are all the categories that matter to my purposes (I included the last two to show the three shortlisted animated shorts).
Here’s how many nominations each film got:
- Raya and the Last Dragon — 10 nominations
- Encanto — 9 nominations
- Luca — 8 nominations
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines — 8 nominations
- Belle — 5 nominations
- Vivo — 5 nominations
- Flee — 4 nominations
- Ron’s Gone Wrong — 2 nominations
- The Addams Family 2 — 2 nominations
- The Boss Baby: Family Business — 1 nomination
- Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko — 1 nomination
- Pompo the Cinephile — 1 nomination
- Poupelle of Chimney Town — 1 nomination
- Sing 2 — 1 nomination
- Spoirit Untamed — 1 nomination
- Summit of the Gods — 1 nomination
- Wish Dragon — 1 nomination
So essentially the four top contenders all got the most nominations here. And Flee, which is likely to have the fifth spot, is one off. That pretty much tells me everything I need. Belle and Vivo did well, so those should be considered (though probably only chosen if you’re willing to take the chance and pick one of the two Disney films to be left off… but at this point, that’s gotta be Raya, since Encanto is gonna potentially get two other nominations, and that’s a real tough call to make).
That’s why I never really covered these to this point, because they basically told us what we already knew.
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Moving along, we have a brand new guild that announces awards! The Set Designers Guild. Every time they hand out the Production Design award, the recipients are always split among the art director and the set decorator (the one who designs the sets and the one who furnishes the sets. And until last year, only the Art Directors Guild handed out awards. But now… more information. Which is always helpful, especially since (while not the most difficult category to guess), Production Design isn’t a category with a shortlist.
Last year, the SDSA nominated 4/5 Oscar nominees, missing only The Father (which was a bit of a surprise, since they almost never go contemporary, but also did straight up get nominated at BAFTA, which was the sign that it had a legitimate shot). So they’re off to a good start.
ADG announces on Monday, and here are the other precursors for Production Design as we currently have them:
- BAFTA Longlist: Being The Ricardos, Belfast, Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, No Time To Die, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
- BFCA: Belfast, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
So now, let’s see what SDSA has given us:
Period
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Fantasy
Dune
The King’s Man
The Matrix Rescurrections
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Contemporary
Don’t Look Up
The Hand of God
The Lost Daughter
No Time to Die
Musical/Comedy
Cruella
Cyrano
The French Dispatch
Tick… Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Well, would you look at that? Belfast misses (but if you think about it, those sets weren’t exactly decorated, were they? Given how poor everyone was meant to be. So in a way, it’s kind of a great omission), but everything else on the BAFTA longlist hit except Louis Wain (which makes sense) and Last Duel. So between that and ADG next week, we should almost assuredly be able to nail down a likely category and alternates as if we did have a shortlist. That’s pretty awesome.
I’ll spare the breakdown here, because it’ll give me something to do when ADG announces next week, but hey… more information is never a bad thing when it comes to guessing nominees/winners.
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And now, VES. We have a shortlist here, so it’s really just gonna be about seeing how well each of the shortlisted films fared, versus how they’re doing at the other precursors. Visual Effects is not a terribly difficult category. Mostly you can spot three-to-four right off the jump and the last spot is either picking that entry that might not fit in terms of class but is clearly the one they’re gonna sneak on, or figuring out which Marvel movie they’re gonna leave off.
Shortlist: Black Widow, Dune, Eternals, Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home
Outstanding Effects
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Outstanding Supporting Effects
Candyman
Last Night in Soho
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Outstanding Created Environment
Dune (Arrakeen City)
Jungle Cruise (Waterfall Canyon)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (The Mirror Dimension)
The Suicide Squad (Valle Del Marre)
Outstanding Virtual Cinematography
Encanto (We Don’t Talk About Bruno)
Godzilla vs. Kong (Ocean Battle)
Loki (Lamentis; Race to the Ark)
Raya and the Last Dragon
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Outstanding Effects Simulations
Dune (Dune of Arrakis)
Godzilla vs. Kong (Ocean Water & Battle Destruction)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Water, Bubbles, Magic)
The Suicide Squad (Corto Maltese City Destruction)
Outstanding Model
Black Widow (The Red Room)
Dune (Royal Ornithopter)
Encanto (Casita Madrigal)
The Suicide Squad (Jotunheim)
Outstanding Compositing & Lighting
Black Widow (Red Room Crashing Back to Earth)
Dune (Attack on Arrakeen)
Dune (Hologram & Hunter Seeker)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Macau City)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Liberty Island Battle & Christmas Swing Finale)
Outstanding Special (Practical Effects
Eternals
Jungle Cruise
The Matrix Resurrections
The Tomorrow War
Outstanding Animated Effects
Encanto
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
Sing 2
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature
Encanto (Mirabel)
Luca (Luca)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Tuk Tuk)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Katie Mitchell)
Outstanding Created Environment in an Animated Feature
Encanto (Antonio’s Room)
Luca (Portorosso Piazza)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Talon)
Sing 2 (Crystal Theater)
Vivo (Mambo Cabana)
Outstanding Effects Simulations in an Animated Feature
Encanto
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
Sing 2
Breakdown of nominations:
- Black Widow — 2 nominations
- Dune — 6 nominations (Best Effects)
- Eternals — 1 nomination
- Free Guy — 0 nominations
- Ghostbusters: Afterlife — 0 nominations
- Godzilla vs. Kong — 3 nominations (Best Effects)
- The Matrix Resurrections — 2 nominations (Best Effects)
- No Time to Die — 1 nomination (Best Effects)
- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings — 4 nominations (Best Effects)
- Spider-Man: No Way Home — 3 nominations (Best Effects)
Also of note, the entire shortlist except Godzilla vs. Kong and Spider-Man (which was ineligible) made the BAFTA longlist, and Dune, Matrix, No Time to Die and Shang-Chi all hit BFCA.
Historically, the two precursors that matter in this category are Best Effects (or Supporting Effects, which doesn’t factor in this year) and BAFTA. BFCA has never given us anything the others have not. So if it misses Best Effects here and at BAFTA, odds are against it being nominated. Before last year, where VES only nominated 2/5 of the final category in Best Effects, they only missed five total nominees going back to 2010 (and technically it’s only four, since one was Kubo, which was only nominated in the animated categories). And when you look at BAFTA too, going back to 2010, the only nominees that were not nominated by either were Real Steel (2011), Snow White and the Huntsman (2012), Captain America & the Winter Soldier and Love and Monsters (2020). So four films. Technically Kubo was fifth, but that’s a once in a decade (if that) situation.
So what that tells me, pending BAFTA’s actual nominations list, is that your most likely category is:
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Alternate: No Time to Die
Dark Horse: Black Widow
Surprise: Eternals, Free Guy
Shocker: Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Honestly, I almost can’t see how it’s not that category. Think about it — Ghostbusters and Free Guy have no traction anywhere, and the only way you can even consider them as good guesses is if they hit BAFTA. Eternals has one VES nomination and will need BAFTA’s support for me to think it happens. They also like CGI fests in this category, if not classy films with practical effects and tasteful CGI. Eternals isn’t really either and has a bit of a negative word of mouth. Hard to see them going for it with three other Marvel choices sitting right there in front of them. Black Widow… I’m actually kinda hoping it doesn’t hit BAFTA, just because my life will get so much more complicated if it does. It doesn’t feel like something they’d nominate, but it also fits perfectly as something that could. But I think since the effects are largely only two major sequences (the prison break and the ending) and a lot of it is practical fighting stuff, they’ll lean away from it. But we’ll see. BAFTA is key for that one. And No Time to Die… classy film, great work, nominated all over… but it’s Bond and it’s largely practical. Bond as a franchise has only been nominated for Visual Effects twice: for Thunderball and for Moonraker. So we’re over 40 years now without a nomination. And given what this category has become, I can’t really see it happening and while it’s only window dressing I may end up swapping Black Widow over it as the alternate before we’re through. It just doesn’t fit what they normally do (as much as I’d love to see it happen).
Which leaves us with the obvious five — Dune should run away with this category and be an easy winner, so that’s a gimme (the hardest part about this one is gonna be the nominations. After that it’s cake). I assume The Matrix should be able to get on through muscle memory alone (though beware a BAFTA snub. If it gets left off, I’d question it). Spider-Man is big and loud and the highest grossing movie of the moment. That usually manages a nomination, even though most other years I’d immediately be looking to leave it off. But it technically makes more sense than the two alternates and we have three nominees that feel like they have no chance at all (not to mention the fact that 40% of the shortlist is Marvel, so you almost have to figure two get on). Shang-Chi should be an easy nominee all around and you’d be insane not to guess it. And Godzilla vs. Kong… Skull Island got nominated, it got nominated by VES and completely fits the shit they like here (even if I think it’s a boring choice). BAFTA almost certainly won’t nominate it and it honestly won’t even matter to me. I basically have to guess it. (Oh, and if BAFTA does nominate it, then it’s an absolute stone cold lock to get on.)
So yeah, that’s what this category is. Right now, you have five obvious nominees, and depending on what BAFTA does, you’re basically just gonna be figuring which, if any, can or will get left off and which tendency of theirs (almost never Bond/more CGI like Godzilla instead of practical like Black Widow) they’re gonna go against in that scenario. It’s about as good a situation as you can hope for in this category.
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