And here we are. The last set of precursors before we get Oscar nominations on Tuesday.
In a way, I’m probably already as prepared as I need to be, but I’m still really excited to see what BAFTA has. They still can throw some surprises out there and I do still need their help in some of the tech categories. But, considering how forcibly diverse they went last year to make a statement, I want to see how they’ve fared this year. My guess is, since they built a lot of the changes into the fabric of the voting, I think we’ll see the kind of diversity in the nominations we should see, which is basically the kind I (and probably most people) have been asking for: open up the field to everyone and actually give everyone a chance, rather than the same twelve nominees, and the rest will take care of itself. So I’m curious to see the results of that as well.
Anyway, let’s get into it. I’ve got nominations to guess.
Best Film
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Oh wow. The only major surprise here is the inclusion of Don’t Look Up, which to this point has hit every single precursor. I can see them not necessarily going for West Side Story. But Don’t Look Up being the one that got on here does surprise me a little.
So now the question becomes — does McKay get that Director spot or do they go elsewhere with it? And if so, who gets it? Otherwise, all of these are basically locked for Best Picture, so there’s really nothing yet to change our thinking. The major question is still gonna be what gets that tenth spot on the nominees list, since we’ve had nine films get nominated all over throughout the process and have to guess what #10 is gonna be.
Best British Film
After Love
Ali & Ava
Belfast
Boiling Point
Cyrano
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
House of Gucci
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die
Passing
Cool? They had a list of 20 and narrowed it down to 10. I get why this category exists, but… that’s kind of a lot, right?
Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer
After Love
Boiling Point
The Harder They Fall
Keyboard Fantasies
Passing
I would have been surprised if Passing weren’t here, but I also wholeheartedly support Boiling Point. Still kinda holding out hope Vinette Robinson manages a Supporting Actress nomination.
Best Director
After Love, Aleem Khan
Drive My Car, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
Happening, Audrey Diwan
Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion
Titane, Julia Ducournau
Okay then. So I know the longlist had ten men and ten women on it and they were gonna have six total nominees. But what I’m not sure about is if they specifically were gonna have three men and three women or it just worked out like that. Either way, Paul Thomas Anderson being the only surefire Oscar favorite to get on here aside from Jane Campion is real interesting to me. And the only person who raises my eyebrow is Ryusuke Hamaguchi, just because BAFTA has telegraphed this the past few years, with Pawel Pawlikowski and Thomas Vinterberg. So I do wanna see how deep the Drive My Car support runs because it may influence my Director thinking. Otherwise, there’s really not much I can do with this past those three, so I’m just gonna move on.
Best Actor
Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Stephen Graham, Boiling Point
Will Smith, King Richard
Oh, so I guess this is how the acting categories are gonna be going forward, huh? Or maybe they just didn’t like the other movies. West Side Story, Tick Tick Boom, Macbeth and Cyrano seem like they’re gonna get shut out entirely. But, happy for Stephen Graham, he’s great in that movie. I’m not sure how much I need to buy into the Mahershala nomination. Leo’s an interesting one, in that every time he’s been nominated at BAFTA he’s gotten nominated at the Oscars. But this is the only time he’s only been nominated at BAFTA. So I’m curious how that one plays out.
We’re still looking for the fifth spot. I thought Dinklage would get on here and seal that up, but apparently not. Though it’s worth noting that all the obvious contenders were shortlisted, so there’s still support out there. Now we just have to guess where the most crossover support with the Academy is going to come from.
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Well this is an interesting category. They just went off the board entirely for Actress. Which, honestly, is what the Academy needs. Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Hudson, who needs to see them here too. I love that Haim and Jones got nominated and I do think Renate Reinsve is a sneaky bet to potentially slip on.
I normally would say a lack of a nomination here is the death knell in the Kristen Stewart case, but Olivia Colman didn’t make it on here either. So it’s all fair game at this point. You just gotta add this to the puzzle and work through it as best you can.
Best Supporting Actor
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
A Mike Faist sighting. That’s interesting. Even over David Alvarez. I’m not unconvinced that we won’t see double West Side Story acting nominations, but the Jesse Plemons inclusion here is the one that stands out to me most. Remember LaKeith Stanfield last year? We couldn’t figure out that fifth Supporting spot and he just comes on out of nowhere because they really liked his movie and like him as an actor. That sure does all fit with Jesse Plemons, now doesn’t it? So that’s something I’m gonna look out for. But I see the major nominees all making it on here, so really it’s just figuring out those last two spots for the Oscar list. (Also, the lack of a Jamie Dornan nomination here does also tell me a lot.)
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Balfe, DeBose, Ellis, Negga. We knew all that. And Dunst didn’t make it, but that’s fine, since we have to figure she’s locked. I did mention looking out for Buckley (interesting she made it on and not Colman), and the Dowd nomination is interesting, since she does also have BFCA, which makes her a true stalking horse candidate. I’m also sad Vinette Robinson didn’t make it, but relieved I don’t necessarily have to worry about a Judi Dench surprise so much.
Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
So they managed to have exactly the same category as everyone else, which pretty much means that these are the most likely five and don’t guess anything else. Cool. That’s easy.
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
CODA, Dune and Power of the Dog are locked for the Oscar, which leaves two spots, which I anticipate going to West Side Story and either The Lost Daughter or Tick Tick Boom. But if Drive My Car is gonna be the foreign surprise of the year, look out for that one too. Either way, we’ve got a limited field for this one (not as limited as Original, but still), so it’s really only like eight scripts that could make it. That’s not so bad.
Best Editing
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
Summer of Soul
An Editing nomination for Summer of Soul. Man, it’s gonna look extra bad if and when the Academy leaves that off the Documentary list.
But otherwise, we know what three Picture nominations they’re supporting the most. And No Time to Die gets on too. I mean, sure. Doesn’t mean a whole lot, since we know how the Academy’s Editing category operates, but at least we can feel good about Licorice Pizza (since I’m always leery about Anderson when it comes to the Academy).
Best Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
No Belfast, which is interesting, and no West Side Story, which clearly is a theme throughout all of this. No Time to Die is a long shot at best for the Oscar, but Nightmare Alley is right there. We’ve basically got six contenders for five spots, so it’s really just gonna come down to hoping you get the right five.
Best Original Score
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Dune and Power of the Dog are the only scores to hit every precursor. Which leaves a nice little handful jockeying for the final three spots. Should be interesting. At least we reasonably only have to look at about seven or eight scores at most, so there’s that.
Best Production Design
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
And now Cyrano gets on. I guess that’s respect for Joe Wright. And here West Side Story starts to pop up as well. Four of these seem pretty set, and I suspect Power of the Dog is likely to nab that fifth Cyrano spot. But this basically tells me what I expected. So that’s good.
Best Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano gets on, as do a lot of the obvious contenders. West Side Story is off, but that doesn’t dissuade me at all. Though French Dispatch gets some extra support, which is intriguing (but probably not enough to get me to go there). Seems to be a fairly easy Costumes year.
Best Makeup & Hair
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Oh wow. They went almost chalk. I mean, I knew Cyrano would make it, but otherwise they went almost chalk to what I’d expect the Academy to do as well. And now all you gotta do is figure out what gets on instead of Cyrano (which means probably either West Side Story or Suicide Squad, without discounting Coming 2 America entirely).
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Oh baby. There’s the atom bomb. I was waiting for one of these. They did this last year too. This immediately makes Ghostbusters and Free Guy legitimate (if not favorite contenders) to get on. And No Time to Die is intriguing, since it’s the only Bond film this decade to make the BAFTA category. Interesting, interesting, interesting. At this point I can make a case for almost all the VFX shortlist except Eternals and Black Widow. As much as it makes guessing more difficult, I love this new chaos voting of BAFTA.
Best Sound
Dune
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place Part II
West Side Story
Quiet Place gets on. Guess I gotta guess it now. And Last Night in Soho gets on as expected. But I can’t imagine they leave Power of the Dog off their final category, so that’ll be a real interesting choice to have to make. Still, six contenders, five spots (with an obvious dark horse). Can’t ask for much more than that.
Best Animated Film
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
There it is. There’s the Mitchells vs. the Machines support I was hoping to see. Now I can totally guess my category of five and wait for them to leave Raya off in favor of something else. I mean, sure, I suspect Raya only got left off here because they ran out of room, but it’s still a conversation that has to be had. Also the conversation of ‘are they really gonna nominate Flee across three separate categories?’ And the answer is probably.
Best Foreign Language Film
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
Parallel Mothers
Petite Maman
The Worst Person in the World
So they managed to go off the board for 40% of the category but still manage to help us. I wasn’t totally sure if The Worst Person in the World was gonna make it, but at this point you almost have to guess it, seeing all this BAFTA support. So now the question is — are we really gonna get the obvious five or will they sneak Compartment No. 6 or something else on? And… will they leave Flee off, knowing it’s gonna probably get on Documentary and Animated Feature, and can you automatically guess that or do you just have to let it happen? We’ve got decisions to make over the next five days.
Best Documentary
Becoming Cousteau
Cow
Flee
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Well, at least the three documentaries that are the most lauded and will be on everyone’s guess list are on here. That’s the most you can reasonably ask for. At this point you gotta guess all three of those and just wait to see if they leave any off. And then all you gotta do is guess the final two and hope things work out for you.
Best Casting
Boiling Point
Dune
The Hand of God
King Richard
West Side Story
Cool. I support West Side Story and King Richard entirely. Hand of God is a solid choice too. Dune is star casting, so whatever. Boiling Point is awesome. Kinda wish they’d gone CODA or Belfast or Licorice Pizza, but whatever.
Best British Short Film
The Black Cop
Femme
The Palace
Stuffed
Three Meetings of the Extraordinary Committee
This has no bearing on the Oscar race, so I just say good luck and congratulations to all the nominees.
Best British Short Animation
Affairs of the Art
Do Not Feed the Pigeons
Night of the Living Dread
There’s Affairs of the Art. But NOT Robin Robin. Oh baby. Please tell me they’re gonna leave that off the Oscar list. I’ve been waiting for an excuse not to guess that for weeks.
EE Rising Star Award
Ariana DeBose
Harris Dickinson
Lashana Lynch
Millicent Simmonds
Kodi Smit-McPhee
Hey, remember when Kodi Smit-McPhee starred in The Road in 2009 and could have gotten this nomination then? And remember when Millicent Simmonds was in the first Quiet Place movie? And Lashana Lynch was in Captain Marvel? Sure feels like I find loads of reasons to hate on this category every year, largely because it’s more about ‘hey, we just noticed these people’ and not ‘hey, these are actually rising stars’.
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Anyway, that’s BAFTA. I’m gonna throw this all into my calculations and you’ll get my Oscar guesses on Monday.
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