Okay, last bit of precursors before Oscar nominations.
What’s crazy is how the WGA and ACE won’t announce until after the Oscar nominations come out, so we’re fully flying blind on Screenplay and Editing. Arguably two of the most important categories for figuring out the rest of the nominees.
But we’ve got everything left past those, including some winners. So let’s get into it.
Critics Choice (Winners)
Best Picture
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
RRR
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
That’s fun. I have a really hard time believing this will win Best Picture, just knowing the Academy, but I’m honestly not opposed to it if that’s how we’re gonna do things. At this point, we’ve got The Fabelmans, Banshees of Inisherin and this as having won precursors. Let’s see what the PGA and BAFTA do. It’ll be interesting to see where things start heading.
Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Damien Chazelle, Babyon
Todd Field, Tár
Baz Lurhmann, Elvis
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Winner: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I mean, yeah. That makes sense. I have zero faith the Academy would do this. They’ll rush to give it to Spielberg again before they do this, I feel. But again, I don’t think anyone saw this movie and didn’t think, “Damn, they directed the hell out of this. That was great.” So it’s hard to find fault with them as potential winners.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Winner: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Happy for him. Glad he got a win. I knew the Globes wouldn’t happen because of the history there, but I needed to see him win this just to think he had a legitimate shot at winning the Oscar. Because at this point it seems like it’s between him and Colin Farrell for the win. Since Nighy won’t happen. And Butler feels like a tall order unless the other two go way all in on him. At this point it seems like it could swing either way but it might be his to lose.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
She’s got two early big wins. She might be on her way to winning her third. I don’t see a lot of competition for her. SAG will probably give it to Michelle Yeoh. BAFTA will be interesting.
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I am so thrilled for him. He might ride this all the way to an Oscar win. I don’t know if there’s anyone else who can built that kind of momentum at this point. This might be his.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
That’s two for her. Curious how this one’s gonna go, since there’s not really a strong push for anyone else to this point. She might win this on strength of who she is.
Best Young Actor/Actress
Frankie Corio, Aftersun
Jalyn Hill, Till
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Bella Ramsey, Catherine Called Birdy
Banks Repeta, Armageddon Time
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Winner: Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
There were a lot of great choices to be made here.
Best Acting Ensemble
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Woman King
Women Talking
Winner: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
That works. The cast was awesome here.
Best Original Screenplay
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Yeah, I think this was a good choice. I’d probably say Banshees over this for the Oscar, but you could do worse than this for sure.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking
Winner: Women Talking
Good film, good script, probably not what should win the Oscar. Then again… based on this category and what I’ve seen… it might. Curious to see what BAFTA and WGA do.
Best Editing
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
I mean, yeah. This entire category has great stuff, but this is a great winner.
Best Cinematography
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
No complaints. Not 100% sure this would be my winner, but I can’t really call it a bad winner at all. So no notes.
Best Original Score
Babylon
The Batman
The Fabelmans
Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking
Winner: Tár
Still working my way through scores. I’ve heard enough to know this wouldn’t be my #1, but I get it.
Best Original Song
“Carolina,” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa,” from Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu,” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba,” from White Noise
Winner: “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR
This sure seems like a pretty easy Oscar winner, doesn’t it?
Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Winner: Babylon
Oh hell yeah. Great choice. There are great choices also here, but this, by itself, is a great choice.
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Woman King
Winner: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
That’s a very BFCA choice. Not sure I’d pick it over some of these others, but it’s a good choice.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Whale
Winner: Elvis
Sure. All good choices here. I think others are better winners, but it’s not bad.
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
RRR
Top Gun: Maverick
Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
No shit.
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild
Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Absolutely the choice.
Best Foreign Language Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Close
Decision to Leave
RRR
Winner: RRR
This was always gonna be their winner. Which makes this completely unhelpful for the Oscars.
Best Comedy
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bros
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Winner: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Sure.
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Okay, now the actual precursors. Starting with the Annies:
Annie Awards
Best Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild
The Sea Beast is an interesting inclusion. That one raises an eyebrow. Not way up, since I think the final category is pretty obvious, but that definitely raises that one’s chances in my eyes.
Best Indie Feature
Charlotte
Inu-Oh
Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
My Father’s Dragon
Yeah, there’s that other one. I think we know what this final category is gonna be. Especially with Lightyear missing out in that first category.
Best Direction
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
My Father’s Dragon
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild
Good for My Father’s Dragon. I’m happy that made it.
Best Writing
Eternal Spring
Inu-Oh
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Turning Red
Interesting Pinocchio didn’t make it, but I’m not overly surprised.
Best Editorial
Lightyear
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
All solid nominees.
Best Music
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Mad God
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Yeah, this all tracks. Clear winner here, though.
Best Character Animation
The Bad Guys (x2)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Turning Red (x2)
Cool (Pinocchio is the clear winner).
Best Character Design
The Bad Guys
Luck
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Rise of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Wendell & Wild
Oh, this is fun. I’d probably give this to Wendell & Wild.
Best Production Design
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Mad God
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
All great choices.
Best FX
Avatar: The Way of Water
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Minions: The Rise of Gru
The Sea Beast
One of these things is not like the others.
Best Storyboarding
Minions: The Rise of Gru (x2)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Strange World (x2)
K.
Best Voice Acting
David Bradley, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Gregory Mann, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jenny Slate, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Wagner Moura, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Zaris-Angel Hator, The Sea Beast
Good stuff. Love the Wagner Moura inclusion.
For Animated Short purposes, The Boy the Mole the Fox and the Horse was nominated in Best Special Production, Best Direction (TV/Media), Best Editorial (TV/Media), Best Music (TV/Media), Best Production Design (TV/Media), Best Character Animation (TV/Media) and Best FX (TV/Media), Save Ralph was nominated in Best Sponsored and Black Slide, Ice Merchants and The Flying Sailor were nominated for Best Short Subject.
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And now, VES. Not that we really need the help. We know what’s winning the Oscar. This is purely about guessing the four that are gonna lose to it.
VES Nominations
Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
Avatar: The Way of Water
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
The Batman
Top Gun: Maverick
Yeah, that’s three of my expected nominees. Fantastic Beasts and Jurassic World are curious. Not sure I believe they can make it, but they are curious.
Outstanding Supporting Effects
Death on the Nile
I Wanna Dance with Somebody
The Fabelmans
The Gray Man
The Pale Blue Eye
Thirteen Lives
Thirteen Lives. Interesting. That could sneak right on.
Outstanding Animated Visual Effects
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Mad God
The Sea Beast
Strange World
Turning Red
Great choices.
Outstanding Animated Character (Photoreal)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Kiri)
Beast (Lion)
Pinocchio (Honest John)
Slumberland (Pig)
Gee, I wonder what wins this.
Outstanding Animated Character (Animation)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Geppetto)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Pinocchio)
Strange World (Splat)
Turning Red (Panda Mei)
Good stuff.
Outstanding Created Environment (Photoreal)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Metkayina Village)
Avatar: The Way of Water (The Reef)
Jurassic World Dominion (Biosyn Valley)
Slumberland (The Wondrous Cuban Hotel Dream)
That village was stunning, though.
Outstanding Created Environment (Animation)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (In the Stomach of a Sea Monster)
Lightyear (T’Kani Prime Forest)
Strange World (The Windy Jungle)
The Sea Beast (The Hunting Ship)
Wendell & Wild (The Scream Fair)
Good stuff.
Outstanding Virtual Cinematography
ABBA: Voyage
Avatar: The Way of Water
Prehistoric Planet
The Batman (Rain Soaked Car Chase)
Avatar will win, but that car chase was dope.
Outstanding Model
Avatar: The Way of Water (The Sea Dragon)
The Sea Beast
Top Gun: Maverick (F-14 Tomcat)
Wendell & Wild (Dream Faire)
What a varied list.
Outstanding Effects Simulations (Photoreal)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Fire and Destruction)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Water Simulations)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (City Street Flooding)
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
This is Marvel’s only nomination. I truly wonder if they’re gonna stop nominating them. This is interesting.
Outstanding Effects Simulations (Animation)
Lightyear
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Strange World
Yup.
Outstanding Composting & Lighting
Avatar: The Way of Water (Landing Rockets Forest Destruction)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Water Integration)
The Batman (Rainy Freeway Chase)
Top Gun: Maverick
Good stuff here.
Outstanding Practical Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water (Current Machine and Wave Pool)
Black Adam (Robotic Flight)
Mad God
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (Adrift; Middle Earth Storm)
Is this where practical effects are?
Emerging Technology Award
Avatar: The Way of Water (Depth Comp)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Facial System)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Water Toolset)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (3D Printed Metal Armature)
Turning Red (Profile Mover and CurveNets)
This is a cool category. I’m glad it’s here.
The most curious thing about this is how Doctor Strange got NOTHING and Black Panther got one nomination. That’s a big rebuke of Marvel and its effects (FINALLY). Here’s hoping the Academy can actually follow through on this. I have my doubts.
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Okay, and now finally for the big one — BAFTA nominations. I saved them for the end because they’re the ones I’m gonna be paying the most attention to and the ones that will have the most bearing on Oscar nominations.
After the past two years, I’m curious to see what happens here. I’m thinking they swing back into being largely being as we’re used to. I can’t imagine they stay out on that limb they’ve been on. But we’ll see.
BAFTA Nominations
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Yeah, that’s about what we’ve seen everywhere else. It’s interesting about the specifics (wasn’t expecting them to go all in on Elvis, but okay), but otherwise I think four of these we expected to see on the Best Picture list, and I think All Quiet was clearly trending toward a nomination as well. So this isn’t too crazy.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian and Charles
Empire of Light
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Living
Matilda: The Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder
I like how Best British Film has ten nominees but Best Film has five, and yet Best Film is the ‘big’ category. Guys, just go all in and be who you are. It’s okay.
Couple of notes — I love that Matilda got nominated. I also have mixed feelings about the nomination for The Swimmers. The story is great and the idea behind the film is great, but the film itself feels very much… whitewashed. And it feels kind of like a token nomination from them, which feels exactly like the kind of thing the film was compromised to avoid. So there’s a lot there. But I guess I’m at least happy the story gets a little more attention. Otherwise, the big note here is for Aftersun, which I thought they’d nominate for Best Film. And the lack of a nomination there, barring a Best Director nomination, is very telling.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Blue Jean (Georgia Oakley, Hélène Sifre)
Electric Malady (Marie Lidén)
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Katy Brand)
Rebellion (Maia Kenworthy & Elena Sánchez Bellot)
Yeah, so this is where they rewarded it. I don’t think Wells is getting a Director nomination, which again goes to show why you can’t listen to all the hype at the start of awards season. People will try to convince you a million things will happen and then in the end, all that matters is what you can see.
Best Director
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Gina Prince-Bythwood, The Woman King
Todd Field, Tár
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Chan-wook Park, Decision to Leave
Berger got nominated. That convinces me of that one. That should get a Picture nomination for sure, and I think he’s an outside (if not serious) contender for that fifth Director spot as well. Three of the other four made it on here, less Spielberg, who does not get nominated at BAFTA nearly as much as he has elsewhere, so that’s not a surprising exclusion at all.
I’m thinking that final Director spot, based on how previous years have gone (with Pawel Pawlikowski, Thomas Vinterberg and Ryusuke Hamaguchi last year), will either be Berger, Chan-wook Park potentially or even Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness. That feels like how this is gonna go, and you have to guess what’s the most likely one there.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
There’s your most likely category, plus a shout out for Daryl McCormack. We seem to be getting back to what you’d expect them to do, huh?
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Oh wow. They didn’t go fully off the board here. That’s most of who we’d expect, minus Michelle Williams. Which makes me wonder who’s getting left off this final Oscar category. Will it be Danielle Deadwyler or will Michelle Williams get left off? I’m thinking Deadwyler just based on the majority makeup of that voting body, but we’ll see.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrect Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Gleeson, Keoghan, Quan. There’s the main three. And Redmayne I think just swept the precursors, so you gotta consider him a nominee too. So that just leaves it that final spot. Which… there are a couple of contenders there. So that’ll be an interesting to think through this weekend before we guess.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Bassett, Chau, Condon, Curtis. That’s gotta be 4/5. De Leon’s got all the right precursors to feel like a nominee, and Mulligan’s right there too. And Stephanie Hsu is nominally there as well (though I’m not holding my breath on them nominating her). Interesting year, where it’s mostly 4/5 on all the acting categories. There’s almost always one where it’s 3/5 and you have no idea.
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Thank god most of this category is obvious. Since we’re going in without the WGA. But 4/5 here are pretty certain, and mostly we have to guess that last nominee. And Triangle of Sadness sure does fit the profile of what it could be.
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
The Whale
The Quiet Girl. Wow. Sure seems like that might be the one to sneak on as a surprise International Feature contender. Otherwise, the other four have been largely everywhere on the precursor lists, so that’s not surprising. I’m very happy here, since I feel a lot better about having to guess this without the WGA.
Best Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Good stuff. All pretty much expected. As much as I’d like to have ACE, we all know how Editing usually goes for the Academy, so that only goes so far. But this is helpful to at least see where people are leaning.
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick
Great stuff here. This might be your final category. I also love that Deakins is fully in John Williams territory. And you know what? He’s earned it.
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Great stuff here. Don’t have full notes just yet, but I’m working on the scores.
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Love that Pinocchio made it on. Love this category.
Best Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Amsterdam gets a token nomination. That’s hilarious. Love Mrs. Harris made it on here. Also, note the strong love for All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s nominated all over the place.
Best Make Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
Matilda The Musical
The Whale
Matilda again. Love that. Otherwise all the obvious stuff. All Quiet again. That’s gonna get a nice amount of nominations.
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar The Way of Water
Elvis
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Tár. Interesting. Otherwise the other four are all obvious. The only question is what they put in as #5.
Best Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Yeah, that all tracks. Wonder what #5 will be for the Oscars. That’s the only intriguing part of this category this year.
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
4/5. The obvious 4. What’s #5?
Best Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Corsage
Decision to Leave
The Quiet Girl
The Quiet Girl, coming on strong. Three of these are obvious, and I fully expect the last one to be something unexpected, as is always the case.
Best Documentary
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
These are the big ones I’m seeing everywhere. I fully expect Moonage Daydream to get left off, but the other four seem like locks based on these precursors.
Best Casting
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Triangle of Sadness
Cool.
Best British Short Animation
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Middle Watch
Your Mountain Is Waiting
There’s that obvious nominee again.
EE Rising Star Award
Aimee Lou Wood
Daryl McCormack
Emma Mackey
Naomi Ackie
Sheila Atim
Oh hey, they aren’t two years too late on any of these. Good for them.
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Okay, done with precursors. Now I have to rush to watch all the last of these precursors and guess nominations on Monday. Good thing I’m not busy as shit this weekend (spoiler alert: I am). This’ll be fun.
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