Oscar nominations are out in two weeks, so I should probably start actually looking at things. I’m not as on top of stuff as I’ve been in recent years, so I’m trying to squeeze a lot in a limited amount of time. I suspect I will not end up being able to watch all I have in time for nominations, have to guess blindly and then catch up after nominations are announced. But such is the life of someone with no time who still finds it necessary to watch everything shortlisted each year.
I’m not gonna go as in depth on all of this as I usually do (and I’m really only doing this for one thing, as it’s my favorite thing to do, pre-Oscars, every year), but we will get into some stuff and broadly talk about things en route to nominations coming out.
Best Animated Feature
The Amazing Maurice
Blue Giant
The Boy and the Heron
Chang’an
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Deep Sea
Elemental
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia
The First Slam Dunk
The Inventor
Leo
Lonely Castle in the Mirror
The Magician’s Elephant
Migration
Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Movie
The Monkey King
My Love Affair with Marriage
Nimona
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
The Peasants
Perlimps
Robot Dreams
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Suzume
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
They Shot the Piano Player
Titina
Trolls Band Together
Unicorn Wars
Warrior King
Wish
I’ve currently seen 25 of the 33 films. Here’s how I felt about them in relation to one another:
- Elemental
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- Suzume
- Nimona
- Blue Giant
- Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
- Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
- Titina
- Wish
- Lonely Castle in the Mirror
- Deep Sea
- Perlimps
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- The Inventor
- The First Slam Dunk
- Migration
- Unicorn Wars
- Leo
- The Amazing Maurice
- Miraculous, Ladybug & Cat Noir
- The Magician’s Elephant
- Trolls Band Together
- The Monkey King
- Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
I also have (but have not watched) My Love Affair with Marriage, and if all goes well I should be seeing The Boy and the Heron this weekend. I also still need to find/see:
- Chang’an
- Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia
- The Peasants
- Robot Dreams
- They Shot the Piano Player
- Warrior King
Really excited for The Peasants, as it’s from the same team as Loving Vincent, and I believe they did the same thing where every frame of the film is an individual oil painting.
Anyway, as I always do, here’s a quick rundown of how I expect these films to fare for nominations (this is before I even know what got precursors or is being talked about. This is purely based on what I’ve seen and my experience doing this for as long as I have):
Not Gonna Happen: Blue Giant, Chang’an, The First Slam Dunk, The Inventor, Lonely Castle in the Mirror, Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Monkey King, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Robot Dreams, Titina, Trolls Band Together, Unicorn Wars, Warrior King
Very Unlikely: The Amazing Maurice, Deep Sea, Leo, The Magician’s Elephant, Migration, Perlimps, They Shot the Piano Player
In Contention: Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia, My Love Affair with Marriage, Nimona, The Peasants, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
Most Likely Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
I’ll spare you the actual guesses, just because I’ll be doing that for real within two weeks and what I say now likely will not change all that much between now and then. So I’ll just say it all then. But, for the most part, I think we all know what the majority of this category is gonna look like, and it’s really only a matter of what the final film is gonna be.
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Best Animated Short
Boom
Eeva
Humo (Smoke)
I’m Hip
A Kind of Testament
Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Once Upon a Studio
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Pete
27
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Wild Summon
I’ve seen 11 of the 15 shorts.
- Boom is a very fun short in the vein of Pixar. Very much one of those ‘classic’ type of entries.
- Eeva is the kind of interesting, foreign short that usually finds a way to get nominated even though it wasn’t at the top of my list (though still very good).
- I have not yet been able to find/see Humo (Smoke), so I can’t speak on that.
- I also haven’t seen I’m Hip, but it is by John Musker, co-director of The Great Mouse Detective, The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, Hercules, Treasure Planet, The Princess and the Frog and Moana. So I’m expecting a fun short.
- I have not been able to see or find A Kind of Testament either, so I can’t speak on it.
- Nor have I been able to find or see Koerkorter (Dog Apartment).
- Letter to a Pig is gorgeously animated and I liked it a lot. I sort of wish the short held together a little more than it does, but it is a very deserving shortlistee.
- Ninety-Five Senses I liked a lot. I like the slow burn of the narration. Really nice little short.
- Once Upon a Studio, while cute, feels a bit like Disney masturbation to me. They’re just parading all their characters out in front. It’s a great short on its own, but when you start putting it here with the possibility of a nomination and/or win, that’s when I start worrying. I don’t think it needs to make the list. But as a short, it’s perfectly cute and accomplishes what it needs to.
- Our Uniform might be my favorite short on this list. I love the animation and I love how it tells its story. 10/10, I hope it wins.
- Pachyderme looks incredible and it’s a really nice short. Not much more to add there. Just one of those solid shorts you get on the shortlist each year.
- Pete is a short that I wanted to love. The animation is great and I love the story they were trying to tell. I just don’t think it adds up to something I’d want to vote for over most of these others. And I hate that, because the message here is so wonderful and there’s so much to like about it.
- 27 is another one of those great foreign shorts that somehow manages to get nominated a lot of the time. I liked this one quite a bit and I thought it was really well-put together.
- War Is Over is a short that didn’t actually need the Lennon tie-in whatsoever, because it’s a great story, well-told, with beautiful animation. It was actually jarring to me when they did the needle drop at the end, because the short holds its own without it. I kinda feel like the ‘IP’ aspect, as it were, diminishes what is otherwise a really great short (though admittedly I still would probably vote to nominate it over most of these. But I am, admittedly, a sentimentalist).
- Wild Summon is perhaps the best put-together short on this shortlist. It’s a visual marvel and a beautiful piece of filmmaking to watch. I suspect it won’t be for everyone, the way it tells its story. But I was riveted the entire way. And it manages to convey its message without bringing the hammer down too hard. So I was a huge fan of this. This and Our Uniform were the two best ones I saw and I hope both get nominated and one of them wins.
My thoughts on this one are pretty simple — I really hope Once Upon a Studio doesn’t get nominated and I really hope, of all of these, Our Uniform and Wild Summon do. As long as those things happen, I’m happy with whatever else they want to do.
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Best Documentary Feature
American Symphony
Apolonia, Apolonia
Beyond Utopia
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
In the Rearview
Stamped from the Beginning
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
A Still Small Voice
32 Sounds
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
I have yet to start watching these. That’s my plan for this weekend. At the moment I only have about half the list to see.
Have to watch:
- American Symphony
- Apolonia, Apolonia
- Beyond Utopia
- Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
- The Eternal Memory
- Stamped from the Beginning
- Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
- 20 Days in Mariupol
Need to find:
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President
- Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy
- Four Daughters
- In the Rearview
- A Still Small Voice
- 32 Sounds
- To Kill a Tiger
Bobi Wine is supposedly playing on Nat Geo this weekend, so I may be able to see that. And I believe I can see Desperate Souls online with a library card. So if both of those things are true, that should get me to 10/15. And then I’ll just need to fin the other 5.
None of these seem particularly intriguing to me, but you never know. I may end up really liking some of them. Guess we’ll find out (I’ll report back when nominations roll around).
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Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Bear
Between Earth & Sky
Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
Camp Courage
Deciding Vote
How We Get Free
If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Last Song from Kabul
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Oasis
Wings of Dust
Another shortlist I haven’t started yet.
Have to watch:
- Between Earth & Sky
- Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
- Camp Courage
- Deciding Vote
- How We Get Free
- Island in Between
- Last Song from Kabul
- Oasis
- The Last Repair Shop
Need to find:
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Bear
- If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
- Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
- Wings of Dust
If Dreams Were Lightning I think premieres tomorrow/today on PBS. So that one I may be able to see. Which would again bring me to 10/15, which isn’t terrible.
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Best Live Action Short
The After
The Anne Frank Gift Shop
An Avocado Pit
Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Dead Cat
Good Boy
Invincible
Invisible Border
Knight of Fortune
The One Note Man
Red, White and Blue
The Shepherd
Strange Way of Life
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Yellow
I’ve seen two of these already, The Shepherd and The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar. I’ve got another 7 to watch and 6 to find.
Have to watch:
- The After
- The Anne Frank Gift Shop
- Invincible
- Knight of Fortune
- Red, White and Blue
- Strange Way of Life
- Yellow
Need to find:
- An Avocado Pit
- Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
- Dead Cat
- Good Boy
- Invisible Border
- The One Note Man
I believe An Avocado Pit is available for rent and The One Note Man I can see somewhere (I just need to remember where). So those being the case, I may be at 11/15, which again, is pretty solid, all things considered.
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Best International Feature
20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Amerikatsi (Armenia)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Four Daughters (Tunisia)
Godland (Iceland)
Io Capitano (Italy)
The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Perfect Days (Japan)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
Totem (Mexico)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
This is the category I’m pretty certain I won’t be able to get to before nominations, but I am interested in seeing all of these.
The one I really want to see is Zone of Interest, but I can’t get to a theater where it’s playing easily and they won’t fucking expand it before nominations, it seems, so I may be stuck waiting for it (this is also delaying my eventual Top Ten list, because my gut tells me not to make any decisions before I see it… and a few other things I’ve yet to be able to watch).
Otherwise, I’ve seen Society of the Snow, have 8 more of the films to watch and still need to find 6 of the others (aside from Zone of Interest, I am very interested in Perfect Days, Four Daughters and The Taste of Things specifically. Monk and the Gun sounds fun too).
Have to watch:
- 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
- Amerikatsi (Armenia)
- Godland (Iceland)
- Io Capitano (Italy)
- The Promised Land (Denmark)
- The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
- Totem (Mexico)
- Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Need to find:
- Four Daughters (Tunisia)
- The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
- The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
- Perfect Days (Japan)
- The Taste of Things (France)
- The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
I’m excited for this shortlist, so I’m not gonna rush it. I doubt I’ll get to most of these before nominations (but you never know).
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Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Beau Is Afraid
Ferrari
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Now the easier shortlists to deal with. Off the top of my head, I couldn’t tell you necessarily things that were snubbed (though Barbie is the one that immediately comes to mind. I’m sure there are others). I don’t see a runaway winner here. I suspect Maestro and Poor Things are the two leading the way. Beau Is Afraid I cannot imagine they’ll nominate (though I kinda hope they do). Society of the Snow makes a lot of sense (but will enough of them have seen it to vote for it?). Oppenheimer doesn’t really need it. Napoleon — sure. But that feels like filler at best for them. But this category does tend to be where the ‘Oscar bait that wasn’t really for us but we want to give it something’ films end up. Just happened a few years ago to Ridley with House of Gucci. Napoleon though at least has Costumes and Production Design out there for it too. Last Voyage of the Demeter — no clue what that’s doing here. Good for them, though. Not a chance it gets nominated (though it would be hilarious to be able to refer to that movie as ‘Academy Award nominee’). Killers of the Flower Moon — great choice all around. Perfect film to nominate and not vote for to win. Golda — ehh. They like heavy character makeup, but I don’t need to see it. Ferrari, feels unlikely to me, but hey, it’s the Academy. BAFTA’s gonna tell me where they’re leaning on this, but I suspect this is ultimately a two-horse race in the end.
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Best Sound
Barbie
The Creator
Ferrari
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
This list makes total sense. I almost feel like something had to have gotten snubbed, but I’m not sure. This all kind of tracks and I’m at a loss, trying to think of anything else that really belongs here any more than most of these.
I’ve seen 9/10 at this point (Zone of Interest being the outlier). I suspect it’s pretty clear that Oppenheimer is winning this, and they’ll nominate Marty because of course. And they’ll nominate Ferrari because cars. Maestro will get nominated because of the music too, which leaves that fifth spot. They love Fincher, but The Killer would be a real pull for them, seeing as how it’s gonna get left off everywhere else. The Creator would feel weird, given everything else here. Napoleon didn’t land enough for me to think they’ll muscle it on. Mission Impossible — I don’t trust them to actually do it. So to me, it seems that fifth spot is Zone of Interest (sight unseen) or Barbie. But maybe BAFTA will sway me. All it takes is for them to put one of these other ones on and that’ll seal the deal for me. The guilds haven’t even announced yet either. I’m basing this solely on this shortlist and nothing else. For all I know, everyone’s gonna go all in on The Creator. I have no idea.
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Best Visual Effects
Longlist:
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Barbie
The Boys in the Boat
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla: Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Marvels
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Nyad
Poor Things
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Wonka
The fact that Oppenheimer didn’t even make the longlist tells you that this category is broken. We’ve passed the point of no return on what special effects mean in movies anymore.
Shortlist:
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Poor Things
Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
So we all see the same thing here, right?
The fact that Godzilla Minus One seems like it’s about to get nominated for an Oscar.
Because Rebel Moon is not happening. Spider-Verse shouldn’t happen (but you never know). Society of the Snow is not effects-heavy enough for them and would surprise me. Poor Things — if they nominate it, they’ll almost have to vote for it, and without Oppenheimer here to take it down, I’m not sure I see them doing it. Napoleon — maybe? Feels unlikely. Mission Impossible deserves to be nominated, but I don’t trust them to actually do it. Indiana Jones — sure, but it’s not winning, and again feels like something they’d probably not nominate. Guardians will probably get on just because it’s easy enough to vote for. The Creator will probably get on just because it’s on two shortlists and seems to be respected. Which leaves Godzilla as a film I’m sure people liked that I feel like they’re gonna nominate.
I also don’t have the guild or BAFTA (and BAFTA is the key for this category anyway) to go by, and BFCA nominated half this list (and Oppenheimer), so I can’t solely go by that. But man, this is gonna be such a throwaway Visual Effects category this year, which is a shame, because looking at this, Mission Impossible should probably win the whole damn thing.
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Best Original Score
American Fiction
American Symphony
Barbie
The Boy and the Heron
The Color Purple
Elemental
The Holdovers
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
I’m still working on finishing up my Scores list. I’ve done the preliminary work an listened to like 180 of them and narrowed my list down to about 50. Now I’m doing the part where I figure out which ones make the list. I have listened to 13/15 here (I still haven’t been able to hear the Zone of Interest score. Though I suspect it’s really good. And I have not heard the American Symphony score either, which I am unsure about, but optimistic for since it’s Batiste). All of these to this point, though, are on my longlist for inclusion, so I’m currently a fan of everything I’ve heard from this and it’s just gonna come down to which end up being my favorites.
And in terms of the category, my immediate gut says that American Fiction, American Symphony and The Color Purple are only here for diversity purposes (they’ve gotten very deliberate about making sure they include women and people of color on their shortlists, and it’s usually very obvious that they are never going to nominate those scores. Which is a shame, because I think Laura Karpman has multiple great scores this year and I do think the American Fiction score is good enough to take seriously for a nomination, and seeing the way they put these shortlists together makes me feel like they’re not likely to do that).
I suspect Across the Spider-Verse won’t actually make it on, and I suspect that Society of the Snow and Elemental are only here because of who scored them. The Holdovers is here because everyone liked the film. (Again, this is all just sort of based on the shortlist, since I’m not really looking at precursors before BAFTA announces.) I feel like your most likely category, just looking at this list, is Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, +1. And the +1 really just comes down to whether or not they’ll put on John Williams (who is just about automatic every time he’s got something in contention). My gut says they likely won’t right now, but we’ll see. If he’s not on, I don’t know what they do. They could sneak Boy and the Heron on, but I wanna see where the precursors go before I make any rash decisions. Either way, this one seems pretty straightforward this year.
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Best Original Song
This is the reason this article is even being put out. This is my favorite thing to do each year.
I’m not gonna get too in depth about all of these songs. Just gonna throw out rating for how much I like them and then maybe a few comments here and there. Just want to make it a point of actually listening to as many of these songs as I can to be properly educated in what was eligible this year.
“It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony
4/5.
“Dear Alien Who Art in Heaven,” from Asteroid City
5/5. This is cinema.
(It’s not really a song that needs to get nominated, because it’s barely a song. But as a sequence, it’s fucking brilliant.)
“Dance the Night,” from Barbie
4,5/5
“I’m Just Ken, from Barbie
5,000/5
“What Was I Made for,” from Barbie
5/5
“This,” from The Beanie Bubble
3.5/5 for the song. 5/5 for the music video.
“The Easy Way,” from Bella
3/5.
“Everything’s Gonna Be Fine,” from Bobi Wine: The People’s President
3.5/5
“Spinning Globe,” from The Boy and the Heron
4/5
“Slip Away,” from Carmen
3/5.
“Tell Somebody That You Love Them Right Now,” from Champions
Weirdly have not been able to find this song online. Seems like it should have no problem being out there.
“My Sweet Baby,” from Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
4/5.
“Superpower,” from The Color Purple
3.5/5.
“Keep It Movin’,” from The Color Purple
3.5/5
“Blood, Sweat & Tears,” from Creed III
3.5/5
“Out Alpha the Alpha,” from Dicks: The Musical
4/5.
“A Dream Is Beautiful,” from Dreamin’ Wild
3.5/5.
“It Would Be,” from Drift
Couldn’t find it. But Cynthia Erivo wrote and sang it, so I’m sure it’s solid.
“Wings of Time,” from Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
3.75/5.
“Gonna Be You,” from 80 for Brady
2.5/5.
This is a Dianne Warren special, and I am so fucking happy they didn’t shortlist this. Because I can’t abide another bullshit Diane Warren nomination for subpar songs.
“Steal the Show,” from Elemental
3/5.
“Barala Tribal Song,” from The Face of the Faceless
“Ek Sapna Mera Suhana,” from The Face of the Faceless
“Jalta Hai Suraj,” from The Face of the Faceless
Couldn’t find any of these. This is usually the case each year for one of these Hindi films, so this isn’t surprising.
“The Fire Inside,” from Flamin’ Hot
2.5/5.
Ah, there’s the Diane Warren. I thought she only had one this year and they left her off. Now this makes sense.
I can’t believe they’re gonna nominate this automatically.
“High Life,” from Flora and Son
4/5.
“Meet in the Middle,” from Flora and Son
4/5.
“The Best Part,” from A Good Person
3/5.
“I Hate Myself,” from A Good Person
3/5.
“Stardust,” from A Good Person
“Quiet,” from Heart of Stone
3.5/5.
“A Little More Time,” from Here. Is. Better.
Couldn’t find it.
“Amar em Segredo,” from The Home Fairy
Couldn’t find it.
“Can’t Catch Me Now,” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
4/5.
“From This Tiny Seed,” from The Inventor
3/5.
“Live That Way Forever,” from The Iron Claw
3.5/5
“Better Times,” from Jakob the Baker
3.5/5
“It’s Precious We Have It Today,” from Joe Haladin: The Case of the Missing Sister
3/5.
“Eye for an Eye,” from John Wick: Chapter 4
3.5.
Honestly not bad as an off-brand (non-derogatory. I mean that in the literal sense) Bond theme.
“Mother to a Savior and King,” from Journey to Bethlehem
3/5.
I wanted to dislike this more than I did, but the vocal performance was great. Lyrically — ehh.
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon
4/5.
“King Coal,” from King Coal
Couldn’t find it.
“Las Navas de Tolosa,” from Knights of Santiago
Couldn’t find it.
“When I Was Ten,” from Leo
2.5/5.
“For the First Time,” from The Little Mermaid
3/5.
“The Scuttlebutt,” from The Little Mermaid
2/5.
“Wild Uncharted Waters,” from The Little Mermaid
3/5.
“Found,” from The Magician’s Elephant
2.5/5
“Tell Me Your Dreams,” from M3gan
2.5/5.
“We Are All Together,” from My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
2.5/5.
“Lion/My Love Affair with Marriage,” from My Love Affair with Marriage
3/5.
“T-Rex,” from Nimona
4/5.
“Find a Way,” from Nyad
3.5/5.
“Falling into Place,” from Origin
Couldn’t find it.
“I Am,” from Origin
3/5.
“Pharma Coliberation,” from Orlando, My Political Biography
Couldn’t find it.
“Always Be My Man,” from Our Son
3/5.
“Quiet Eyes,” from Past Lives
3/5.
“Down Like That,” from PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
2.5/5.
“Learning to Fly,” from PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
“End of Summer,” from The Peasants
3.5/5.
“Shotgun Clown,” from Prisoner’s Daughter
2.5/5.
“Sader,” from Radical
Couldn’t find it.
“Remember Me,” from The Road Dog
2.5/5.
“Rise,” from Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
2.5/5.
“This Moment,” from Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
3/5.
“Road to Freedom,” from Rustin
3.5/5.
“Missing Children,” from Saving Ana
Couldn’t find it. Though I also could have sworn an exact song as this was on last year’s list.
“In My Head,” from Scream VI
3.5/5.
“Still Alive,” from Scream VI
3/5.
“Addicted to Romance,” from She Came to Me
4/5.
“Wounded Heart,” from Silver Dollar Road
3/5.
“Am I Dreaming,” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4/5.
“Greatest Time,” from Spinning Gold
3/5.
“Ace Up My Sleeve,” from The Starling Girl
3/5.
“One Mile,” from State of the Unity
“Songbird,” from State of the Unity
“Hides,” from State of the Unity
Couldn’t find any of these.
“Lil Fish, Big Pond,” from Stephen Curry Underrated
2.5/5.
“All of You,” from Strays
Couldn’t find it. Which is odd. Since this should be out there.
“Peaches,” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
3/5.
It’s good for what it is, but the thought that anyone took this seriously as a potential nominee is laughable.
“Kanata Haluka,” from Suzume
4/5.
“Suzume,” from Suzume
4/5.
“Taking Me Higher,” from Sweetwater
3/5.
“Camp Isn’t Home,” from Theater Camp
4/5.
“Drunk AF,” from They Cloned Tyrone
3.5/5.
“On My Soul,” from Transformers” Rise of the Beasts
3.5/5.
“Better Place (Reunion),” from Trolls Band Together
3/5.
“All of Our Dreams,” from Uncharitable
Couldn’t find it.
“Don’t Need to Sleep,” from We Dare to Dream
3/5.
“I’m a Star,” from Wish
3/5.
“This Is The Thanks I Get?!” from Wish
3.5/5
“This Wish,” from Wish
3.75/5
“A World of Your Own,” from Wonka
2.5/5.
– – – – –
So… those are the nominees. Based on that, my personal shortlist would be:
“It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony
“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven),” from Asteroid City
“Dance the Night,” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“My Sweet Baby,” from Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
“Out Alpha the Alpha,” from Dicks: The Musical
“High Life,” from Flora and Son
“Meet in the Middle,” from Flora and Son
“Can’t Catch Me Now,” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“T-Rex,” from Nimona
“Addicted to Romance,” from She Came to Me
“Am I Dreaming,” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
“Camp Isn’t Home,” from Theater Camp
And then, your ACTUAL shortlist is:
“It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony
“Dear Alien Who Art in Heaven,” from Asteroid City
“Dance the Night,” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken, from Barbie
“What Was I Made for,” from Barbie
“Keep It Movin’,” from The Color Purple
“Superpower,” from The Color Purple
“The Fire Inside,” from Flamin’ Hot
“High Life,” from Flora and Son
“Meet in the Middle,” from Flora and Son
“Can’t Catch Me Now,” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“Quiet Eyes,” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom,” from Rustin
“Am I Dreaming,” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
I matched 10/15. That’s solid as hell.
So we have to assume all three Barbie songs get on. Save the obligatory Diane Warren spot and that’s four. Past that — I guess Lenny Kravitz as five? Maybe Jon Batiste gets five. But who knows. Maybe they’ll grow some balls and have proper opinions for a change and actually pick the songs they like rather than just nominating the obvious shit.
– – – – – – – – – –
– – – – – – – – – –
And now, the BAFTA longlists. We’ll get official nominees in a week, but for now, let’s see what we’ve got.
BAFTA Longlists
Best Film
All of Us Strangers
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
All the major contenders plus the two major foreign films in play for Picture/Director spots. Honestly, swap out All of Us Strangers for something else (American Fiction, I guess) and this might be your entire Best Picture list. Nothing else really has momentum, and I’m not sure I trust Saltburn or Color Purple or Air or May December to galvanize that much support. This seems pretty close to what we’re gonna get. And they’re about to cut it in half. So, if I see something not obvious get on, I’m gonna raise that one’s chances on my Picture list.
Outstanding British Film
All of Us Strangers
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
The Deepest Breath
The Great Escaper
How to Have Sex
Napoleon
The Old Oak
One Life
Poor Things
Rye Lane
Saltburn
Scrapper
Tetris
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
This category is whatever, since they’re nominate most of it anyway. Good on them for Rye Lane, How to Have Sex and Scrapper, though.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Blue Bag Life
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Earth Mama
The End We Start From
How To Have Sex
If the Streets Were on Fire
Is There Anybody Out There?
Polite Society
Rye Lane
Scrapper
Happy for all of these people and happy this category exists.
Director
This one — I saw their criteria for nominating and wanted to point it out. Because it’s weird as hell. People vote for 16 directors. The top two get nominated (not longlisted, nominated) regardless of gender. Then, they move up to a shortlist of 11 top vote-getters, adhering to gender parity, and then a jury picks the remaining people based on whoever the next 8 people are. Then there’s a nominating jury that picks four people to join the two that are already nominated.
Maybe it’s their explanation of how they do this, but that sounds fucking insane. The gender parity part is fine. But the whole ‘up to 11 and then we pick from the next 8’ bit sounds batshit crazy. Why not just split up to a certain number to adhere to gender parity and then just say, “Hey, for nominations, the top two get on regardless of gender and then the final four, we’re gonna split”? Because the point here is, “Hey, people, nominate more women.” And you know what? If your longlist is half women and then you let people actually vote from there, I’m sure most of the time you’re gonna get 1/2 and then with 3-6, there will be at least one woman nominated naturally and I’m sure you only have to kick off dude #6 because there’s a woman or two at 7 or 8. It’s not gonna change shit.
But anyway, here’s what we have.
Raine Allen-Miller, Rye Lane
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Sofia Coppola, Priscilla
Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Charlotte Regan, Scrapper
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Molly Manning Walker, How to Have Sex
This is a really solid shortlist. Arguably the women have the more interesting efforts in the aggregate. So that’s cool. Curious what they do with this, because I see at least four people getting snubbed no matter which way they go with it.
Really all I’m looking for out of them are Triet, Glazer, Song and Gerwig. Those, to me, are the keys. Because Alexander Payne and Martin Scorsese and Christopher Nolan are all locks. We know this. It’s really those final two spots. And I assume BAFTA isn’t nominating Bradley Cooper. So I wanna see who gets on instead. Because someone’s getting left off that final Director list. And BAFTA is likely gonna tell us who that is. They’ve been the harbinger of foreign Director nominees for about five years now (Pawel Pawlikowski, Thomas Vinterberg, Ryusuke Hamaguchi), so that’s really what we’re looking for here.
Leading Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Annette Bening, Nyad
Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex
Lily Gladstone, Killers of The Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Vivian Oparah, Rye Lane
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
There’s only about six or seven contenders here, and the only real question at this point is whether or not they’re gonna also nominate Annette Bening like everyone else has been. I assume Gladstone, Huller, Mulligan, Robbie, Stone and Lee are the primary six, but Bening’s been showing up at a weird number of places, and assuming they leave her off here, we’ll get back to ‘this makese sense’ territory, and I’ll just assume they’re gonna leave Greta Lee off the final list (because that’s how they do). So we’ll see.
Leading Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of The Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
George MacKay, Femme
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
All your contenders are here. Cooper, DiCaprio, Domingo, Giamatti, Murphy, Wright. That’s basically it. No real foreign options here. I suspect they’ll get Keoghan or Scott on, but other than that, it’s really just a matter of who they didn’t like (would be kinda hilarious if it’s Cooper).
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Julianne Moore, May December
Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
I haven’t had a fucking clue of what they’re gonna do with this category all season* (*two weeks since I’ve paid attention to this stuff). This is basically telling me that Randolph, Blunt, probably Brooks, probably Moore and then either Foster or Pike is the final category. I can’t imagine Huller getting votes in two categories like that. I still don’t fully believe it’s gonna be Jodie Foster in that fifth spot, but I can’t, for the life of me, figure out who the sneak-on is. America Ferrera would be insane and I can’t see that happening. I don’t know. Let’s see what they do and I’ll try to figure out who the ‘out of nowhere’ person could be.
Supporting Actor
Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers
Robert De Niro, Killers of The Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Jacob Elordi, Saltburn
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Anthony Hopkins, One Life
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Ben Whishaw, Passages
De Niro, Downey, Gosling, Ruffalo — we know where this goes. Sessa would be awesome if they do it. No Willem Dafoe here, which is interesting. As SAG went with him over Ruffalo. No Sterling K. Brown either, which is telling. Also no Charles Melton, so it’s looking like May December, if it gets anything, is getting one singular (or two) nominations in acting for the obvious people and nothing else. Oof.
Original Screenplay
Air
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
How to Have Sex
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Rye Lane
Saltburn
Obvious stuff is here. These nominations are gonna be what we use to guess, since WGA isn’t nominating until after Oscar nominations are out. Barbie is also going Adapted at the Oscars, FYI.
I suspect your category is Holdovers, Anatomy of a Fall, Maestro, Past Lives, +1. And I figure the +1 is eitheR May December or Air. I don’t see them nominating Saltburn, but you never know. We’ll see what BAFTA does.
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Dumb Money
The Killer
Killers of The Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
Happy for Are You There God It’s Me Margaret. Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and Poor Things already punched their tickets. As has Barbie (from the other category). I imagine American Fiction will be that fifth spot, but I won’t rule out Zone of Interest. Let’s see if they make it interesting with anything else.
Editing
All of Us Strangers
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Zone of Interest
Shouldn’t really affect all that much, since Editing is its own thing at the Oscars. Mostly we’re just gonna see if they toss on something interesting (like Mission Impossible). Otherwise, expect the usual there.
Cinematography
Barbie
The Creator
Ferrari
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Zone of Interest
ASC announces tomorrow, and they’ll be the primary arbiter of this one. BAFTA is secondary. I suspect Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things +1 as the final category. But we’ll see.
Original Score
American Fiction
Barbie
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of The Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Wonka
8 of these are Oscar shortlisted (all but Wonka and Napoleon). Right now, the frontrunners are Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and Poor Things, with two spots to go. Normally I’d say reserve an automatic spot for John Williams, but I don’t know. Are we feeling Indy the way we felt Star Wars? That’ll be interesting to track. If he gets on here, then it’s a done deal. Otherwise it’ll be interesting.
Production Design
Asteroid City
Barbie
Ferrari
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
All the obvious stuff is here, so no major surprise, whichever way they go.
Costume Design
Asteroid City
Barbie
Ferrari
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Wonka
This is almost exactly the same shortlist as Production Design. Lotta repetition this year in these tech categories.
Make Up & Hair
Barbie
Ferrari
Golda
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla
Wonka
7 of these are Oscar shortlisted. Which basically tells you that Beau Is Afraid, Last Voyage of the Demeter and Society of the Snow have zero shot at getting nominated. In case you didn’t already know that instinctively. This one’s just gonna be about the one movie they seemingly confirm for the final category and the one they don’t nominate that you think might get left off.
Special Visual Effects
Barbie
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Wonka
7 of these are Oscar shortlisted, but unfortunately the really interesting film (Godzilla Minus One) is not here. So I’ve got no fucking clue what they’re gonna do. Part of me hopes they don’t go for anything on the Oscar list and leave everyone wondering what to do.
Sound
Barbie
Ferrari
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
8/10 of the Oscar list is here, so they’re basically just gonna confirm our category (which is largely already confirmed for us. It’s just a matter of which ‘fringe’ choice they confirm).
Casting
All of Us Strangers
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
How to Have Sex
Killers of The Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Saltburn
Scrapper
Good on them for having this category.
Animated Film
The Boy And The Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Wish
Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run, Elemental, Spider-Verse. If anything else makes their final 4, that’s an eyebrow raiser. Otherwise, move along.
Film Not in the English Language
20 Days In Mariupol
Anatomy of a Fall
The Boy And The Heron
The Eight Mountains
Fallen Leaves
Past Lives
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
This is a list based on what I’ve heard were the best foreign films of the year. So much simpler than how the Oscars do it (though less egalitarian, so I’m mostly talking in jest there). Still, only six Oscar shortlisted films, and two of them are insanely obvious. So it’s really just a matter of whether or not they nominate any of the others. Maybe they’ll be helpful, maybe they won’t.
Documentary
20 Days In Mariupol
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
The Deepest Breath
High & Low – John Galliano
Little Richard: I Am Everything
Mad About The Boy: The Noël Coward Story
The Pigeon Tunnel
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Wham!
Only 4 of these are Oscar shortlisted. So basically any number of 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia or Still means basically they’re gonna get nominated. Cool.
British Short Film
Essex Girls
Festival of Slaps
Finding Alaa
Gorka
Jellyfish and Lobster
Jill, Uncredited
Mighty Penguins
The One Note Man
Such A Lovely Day
Yellow
The One Note Man and Yellow are shortlisted, FYI.
British Short Animation
Crab Day
Sweet Like Lemons
The Smeds and The Smoos
Visible Mending
Wild Summon
World to Roam
Wild Summin is shortlisted (and awesome).
– – – – – – – – – –
– – – – – – – – – –
Golden Globes
We’ve got nominees and winners here. So we’ll just deal with all of that at once (I’ve also left the TV categories out of this, because who cares).
Best Picture – Drama
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Winner: Oppenheimer
No real surprise there. Unless they were going in on Anatomy of a Fall, this was the obvious choice for them. I’m just happy it wasn’t Maestro. (And not that Maestro was bad, by the way. Just that it would have been the most boring choice ever.)
Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
Winner: Poor Things
They couldn’t even complete the Barbenheimer double play. They made the right call, but still. Also, what a stacked category this was (even though one of these decidedly is not a comedy. I cold argue more than one, but one of them for sure I think we can all spot).
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
They finally gave him something! I’m curious if the Oscars follow suit. Unlikely at this juncture, but there’s a lot left to play out.
Best Actor – Drama
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Thrilled for him. Kinda hope this carries through (and it sure seems like it might, since Bradley Cooper has kind of overcampaigned himself out of this. Maybe he can turn it around, but this sure seems like it’s Cillian’s to lose.
But also, it’s the first show and they did go all in on this film, to the point where I don’t think everyone else is gonna follow suit. So it’s still early.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothee Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
He’s the major contender to Murphy. And honestly, between the two of them, would anyone be truly upset if one beat the other? I sure wouldn’t. This is an embarrassment of great performances.
Best Actress – Drama
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Winner: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Thrilled for her. Historic win. That overcomes a lot (and by a lot, I mean the fact that she’s probably a supporting performance, even with an hour of screen time). But hey, it’s a good winner. If they’re not gonna nominate Greta Lee (and it sure seems like they’re not gonna), and you can’t trust Sandra Huller to make a run since no one’s gonna watch her movie — Carey Mulligan’s not winning, so basically you’ve got Lily and Emma Stone. And since Emma’s won, if she won for a semi-category fraud type of performance but also made history… I think I’d be fine with that. So cool. If she can win here with a performance that’s in less than 30% of her film, more power to her.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Alma Poysti, Fallen Leaves
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runaway. Absolutely deserved and probably the best lead performance in both categories (though admittedly I still need to see Huller’s). Apologies to Margot Robbie, but Stone is just insane in that movie in the best way possible. I wouldn’t be upset if she won another for this.
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Great category, good choice. Don’t necessarily need to see him win the Oscar, but it’s a good start. Also, we need to start talking about — if the final category is Dafoe, De Niro, Downey, Gosling and Ruffalo, it sure looks like it shakes out with Downey actually winning that Oscar. Start preparing yourselves for that eventuality. But we’ve got a lot still to play out.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Thrilled for her, actually think that’s the right choice and the choice that can carry her all the way to a win. Because there’s really no major competition for her and no steady ground either. Blunt will get nominated everywhere but not actually win anything, and everyone else feels like they’ll just be lucky to be nominated. If she can string a few precursors together, I think she’s got it in the bag. Nice way to help you overlook what is otherwise a weak year for this category.
Best Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
This tracks. Won’t win the Oscar, but good win here. Enough to key in the people who don’t really know what they’re doing that this is a player in the bigger categories.
Best Original Score
The Boy and the Heron
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest
Winner: Oppenheimer
Now they’re pouring it on. Not that it’s not a great score, but they just swept it.
Best Original Song
“Addicted to Romance,” from She Came to Me
“Dance the Night,” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie
“Peaches,” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Road to Freedom,” from Rustin
“What Was I Made For,” from Barbie
Winner: “What Was I Made For,” from Barbie
This tracks. I’m curious which song gets the Oscar. I suspect this or “Ken,” but no clue.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Suzume
Wish
Winner: The Boy and the Heron
No shit.
Best Foreign Language Film
Anatomy of a Fall (France)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Past Lives (USA)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Zone of Interest (UK)
Winner: Anatomy of a Fall (France)
It had already won Screenplay by the time they announced this. So we all kinda knew where it was going.
– – – – – – – – – –
– – – – – – – – – –
BFCA Critics Choice Nominations
Critics Choice time.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Saltburn
All the obvious stuff, with a few mainstream ones in there. That’s usually how BFCA goes. They hit the obvious notes and put the stuff that an AI programmed to guess next year’s Oscar nominees would select. At least they’re consistent.
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
They got the obvious six and still missed the foreign nominee who’s gonna get on. That tracks.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
These are the six. It’s really just a matter of who gets left off.
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Huller getting on here too shows you how much of a lock she already is, pre-BAFTA. Otherwise, it’s gonna be a real shame when Greta Lee doesn’t get nominated in the end.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Yeah. Throw on Willem Dafoe and that’s basically your pool for this one. Melton’s gonna get snubbed though.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
America Ferrera being here is wild.
Best Young Actor/Actress
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie
Calah Lane, Wonka
Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Madeleine Yuna Voyles, The Creator
Good choices. Kinda unfair to have Sessa here, though, right?
Best Acting Ensemble
Air
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
No complaints.
Best Original Screenplay
Air
Barbie
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
This is basically your Oscar category, plus Anatomy of a Fall. There’s your 6 (Barbie is Adapted).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret.
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
So happy for Are You There God It’s Me Margaret.
Best Editing
Air
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
AIR. Wow. Okay, guys. Do your stuff.
Best Cinematography
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Saltburn in Cinematography. That’s a choice.
Best Score
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
These are all shortlisted, at least.
Best Song
“Dance the Night,” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie
“Peaches,” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
“Road to Freedom,” from Rustin
“The Wish,” from Wish
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Wish and Peaches weren’t shortlisted, but otherwise I’d expect the other four to get nominated.
Best Production Design
Asteroid City
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Five obvious, plus Saltburn for chaos.
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Poor Things
Wonka
I am seeing the reality where Wonka ends up with Costume and/or Production Design nominations and am really curious what ends up happening there. BAFTA’s gonna need to carry it through, though.
Best Hair and Makeup
Barbie
The Color Purple
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla
Only three of these are actually shortlisted, so only the winner really matters here.
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
All of these (except the OBVIOUS one) were shortlisted. What a fucking weird year this is gonna be for Visual Effects.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Wish
Take off Wish and that’s probably the category I’d vote for. I’m curious if Nimona makes that fifth spot, because three of these are pretty obvious and I think we all expect Chicken Run to make it on too. So it’s really just that fifth spot. I can’t imagine Wish getting it, not with those reviews.
Best Foreign Language Film
Anatomy of a Fall
Godzilla Minus One
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Zone of Interest
GODZILLA.
Best Comedy
American Fiction
Barbie
Bottoms
The Holdovers
No Hard Feelings
Poor Things
Sure. Kinda sucks for the two proper comedies, but sure.
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CDG Nominations
Period Film
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
These five films are in like, every single tech category shortlist. This is gonna be one of the most homogenous nominees lists ever.
Sci-Fi/Fantasy
Barbie
Haunted Mansion
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
The Little Mermaid
Rebel Moon
Well one of these certainly outclasses the others.
Contemporary
American Fiction
May December
Nyad
Renfield
Saltburn
Cool.
Makeup and Hairstylist Guild Nominations
Contemporary Makeup
Candy Cane Lane
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
The Haunted Mansion
Nyad
Saltburn
Good on them for nominating Candy Cane Lane.
Contemporary Hairstyling
Candy Cane Lane
Joy Ride
Nyad
Pain Hustlers
Saltburn
Pain Hustlers. People actually watched that.
Period/Character Makeup
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
This tracks.
Period/Character Hairstyling
Barbie
Chevalier
The Color Purple
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Chevalier. Another one they watched.
Special Effects Makeup
Golda
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Poor Things
Rebel Moon
Is Golda really gonna get nominated? That’s wild.
SDSA Nominations
Set Designers, in case you didn’t recognize this one. Mostly just backup help for Production Design.
Contemporary
The Killer
Leave the World Behind
May December
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One
Saltburn
The Killer and Mission Impossible absolutely deserved it.
Period
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The same five, huh?
Fantasy/Sci-Fi
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Wonka
These also feel like the same five in the Fantasy/Sci-Fi categories.
Musical/Comedy
American Fiction
Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Asteroid City
Candy Cane Lane
The Little Mermaid
Good choices.
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SAG Nominations
Best Ensemble
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Cool. Good for them. Barbie or Oppenheimer is winning this, in case that wasn’t abundantly clear.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Obvious 5, and then Leo will get on and knock either Domingo or Wright off. We know how this goes. It’s just a matter of which one.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Annette Bening again. Weird as hell. Otherwise, we’ve got a pretty obvious one this year. Sandra Huller is gonna take that fifth spot. We know what it is.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
This is about par for the course. Interesting Ruffalo got squeezed of all the people, given how much of a popularity contest SAG is. But it won’t affect much. We know who the top six are here.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penélope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
This category is so thin this year. At least Da’Vine Joy Randolph is probably gonna win and buoy it. Otherwise, Emily Blunt is just kind of the steadfast ‘never gonna win’ person, it seems, Brooks will carry in just on role and momentum alone. Foster’s got nominations, but does anyone care about that performance? Cruz is here on popularity. Whatever. No Julianne Moore or Rosamund Pike is interesting. I’m gonna need BAFTA here, because I barely see five, let alone the seven it takes for an interesting category. We really need to figure out who the Judi Dench ‘out of nowhere’ nominee is, because they’ve gotta be coming through. Or like 2021 Supporting Actor, when I kept going ‘there’s gotta be someone else’, and it ended up being LaKeith Stanfield out of nowhere. That’s the kind of stuff I’m expecting this year. It can’t just be this.
Best Stunt Ensemble
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One
Love that this category exists.
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DGA Nominations
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
So yeah. DGA is historically 4/5 every year. Sure seems like they’re gonna snub Greta here, huh? And don’t assume it’s gonna be Bradley Cooper at all, either. I’m thinking more Justine Triet or Jonathan Glazer. But we’ll see what BAFTA does first. I’d be fine with this as the final five, all things considered. But I wouldn’t expect to see all five of these get nominated, just based on the DGA’s history against the Oscar list.
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ADG Nominations
Period Film
Asteroid City
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Great list.
Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film
Barbie
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Poor Things
Wonka
There are the other obvious Oscar nominees.
Contemporary Film
Beau Is Afraid
John Wick: Chapter 4
The Killer
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Saltburn
And Saltburn, to make it interesting.
Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
I love that they include animation here. Good for them.
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CAS Nominations
Barbie
Ferrari
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
All of these were shortlisted, so no major surprises there. This feels like your final category, too. We’ll see what MPSE and BAFTA have to say, but based on the shortlist, this makes a lot of sense.
Also, here are their Animated nominees, just because it does interest me and I think they made great choices here.
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
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Okay, those are all the shortlists they’ve announced. I’m not gonna post all the others as they come out. This article was almost entirely so I could go through all the eligible Songs.
But, for the 2 people who are interested —
The ASC nominations and Annie nominations get announced tomorrow. PGA announces Friday. BFCA gives out their awards on Sunday. MPSE announces Monday, VES Tuesday, BAFTA Thursday. Oscar nominations are on the 23rd.
Also, on my front — I’ve still gotta watch a bunch of the shortlisted stuff, plus a small handful of stuff from the year before I can feel like I’ve completed enough to finalize a Top Ten list. I’ll admit, I’m struggling this year. It’s not a top-heavy year at all.
Otherwise, I’ve got about 50 scores pulled and need to get those listened to again to finish my ‘lists’ article. I’m gonna try to get that out either this weekend or next week, before Oscar nominations. The Top Ten list — I’d rather just put it out when it’s ready rather than rush it. I could just throw out a list without writing it up and put out the proper version later on, but that doesn’t feel proper. But we’ll see. One thing at a time. At least we got this done.
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