And now, Best Live-Action Shortlist. Because I wasn’t gonna force two documentary categories on your guys in a row. That would just be cruel.

Not much to say about this one. This is typically the hardest category of all to pick, because you never get to see them beforehand, you never know what they are, and you never really know the criteria for how they nominate stuff.

So pretty much all we do here is look at the ten films, read what they’re about, and then blindly guess, “Okay, that one sounds like it’ll be on,” and hope for the best.

So here is your shortlist for Best Live-Action Short:

Caroline
Chuchotage
Detainment
Fauve
Icare
Marguerite
May Day
Mother
Skin
Wale

Right, though? Here’s what I can find out about these, as best I can:

Caroline — When plans fall through, a six-year-old is faced with a big responsibility on a hot Texas day.

And oh look, it’s available right here:

Chuchotage — During a professional conference in Prague, two interpreters in the Hungarian booth hilariously vie for the attention of one listener.

Sounds funny. Here’s a trailer:

Detainment — Two ten year-old boys are detained by police under suspicion of abducting and murdering a toddler. A true story based on interview transcripts and records from the James Bulger case which shocked the world in 1993.

Damn. I thought it was going a different way. Look at the trailer. This looks professional.

Fauve — Set in a surface mine, two boys sink into a seemingly innocent power game with Mother Nature as the sole observer…

This one’s available right here:

Icare — On a tiny island encircled by steep cliffs, a unique house stands alone facing the sea. Obsessed by the dream that, one day, man may be able to fly just like a bird, an inventor experiments with machines on this abandoned piece of land. For this man, only a pure, light and naive soul is capable of such a feat. Recruited from the continent, 11-year-old Joseph seems to be the perfect candidate.

Can’t seem to find a trailer on this one at the moment.

Marguerite — An aging woman and her nurse develop a friendship that inspires her to unearth unacknowledged longing and thus help her make peace with her past.

Trailer here:

May Day — Several people gather in Thierry’s living room. The air is thick with anticipation. None of them know each other, but they all have on thing in common. They are desperate for a job

Snippet here:

Mother — While at home in her apartment with her own mother in Spain, a woman gets a phone call from her six-year-old son, who’s on holiday in France with his father. Every parent’s nightmare ensues.

Trailer here:

Skin — A small supermarket in a blue collar town, a black man smiles at a 10 year old white boy across the checkout aisle. This innocuous moment sends two gangs into a ruthless war that ends with a shocking backlash.

No preview for this one, as far as I can tell.

Wale — An 18 year old youth offender is trying to get his own business going as a mechanic. But enterprise isn’t so easy when you’re a young, black male with a criminal past. And it doesn’t get any easier when you’re framed by one of your new clients for a harrowing crime.

Trailer here:

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So, that’s as much information as I can find about all of these. The Academy didn’t make it easy on me. All they released were titles. Are you really gonna make people look for a short named “Mother’ the year after the Jennifer Lawrence movie came out?

But yeah, that’s what we’ve got. Having the ability to watch two of these is mighty helpful. Of course, I don’t have the time to do so now, so I’m honestly just gonna spitball for the moment and revisit this later when I don’t have three more of these things to write up once I’m done with this.

Chuchotage

Detainment

Marguerite

May Day

Wale

That would be my guess for a category. I feel like I’d always automatically guess Caroline because of children and guess Skin because of the race thing. But I feel like I always end up wrong in some way. But again, this is based on literally nothing. I’m just guessing based on synopses.

Detainment definitely seems like a strong contender, Chuchotage definitely sounds like what they’d go for. May Day… maybe they do two comedic ones? Wale also sounds a lot like them. And I put Marguerite because something tells me that’s the kind of thing I’d be wrong to leave off most years. I’m sure I’ll still leave it off in the end, but we’ll see.

If anything, we now have something to look at for all these shorts, which is a damn slight more than the Academy gave us to work with (or I’m sure anyone else who ran the shortlists as soon as they came out).

Three more to go. Almost there. Fortunately it starts to get fun now.

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The best thing about me writing all nine of these shortlists up is that you get to see me do this in real time. As they go up — that’s when I’m finding out about all of these movies. That’s the time it takes to do a nominal amount of research. And what’s funny is, as I search for these films (especially for the shorts categories), I keep seeing links to other people covering the shortlists… and no one’s done anything more than copy-paste them. It’s like they don’t even care about what these things are about. But that’s why you have me.

Here’s Animated Short. The last of the shorts. Ten potential nominees, five of them will make it. And everyone will say Pixar’s gonna win regardless. (I’m just assuming Pixar has made it on here, because fucking really.)

I know nothing about these whatsoever, so I guess we’ll find out about them as we go. And see which one is gonna join Academy Award winner Kobe Bryant in the pantheon of winners of this category.

Here is your Animated Short Shortlist:

Age of Sail
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Bilby
Bird Karma
Late Afternoon
Lost & Found
One Small Step
Pépé le Morse
Weekends

Age of Sail — Set on the open ocean in 1900, Age of Sail is the story of William Avery, an old sailor adrift and alone in the North Atlantic. When Avery reluctantly rescues Lara, who has mysteriously fallen overboard, he finds redemption and hope in his darkest hours.

This is a Google VR short. And they’ve released a theatrical version online.

Animal Behaviour — Five animals meet regularly to discuss their inner angst in a group therapy session led by Dr. Clement, a canine psychotherapist.

Bao — A Chinese-Canadian woman suffering from empty nest syndrome gets a second shot at motherhood when one of her handmade dumplings comes alive.

This is the Pixar short in front of Incredibles 2. First Pixar short directed by a woman, and seems all but assured for a nomination, if not also a win.

Here’s a trailer:

Bilby — Set in the Australian outback, ‘Bilby’ follows the desert-dwelling marsupial Perry through the trials and tribulations of “parenthood” after he saves a defenseless chick from predators and inadvertently becomes her protector.

This is DreamWorks.

Bird Karma — No real synopsis, but it’s DreamWorks and looks stunning.

Late Afternoon —  An elderly woman drifts back through her memories. She exists between two states, the past and the present.

Lost & Found — A knitted toy dinosaur must completely unravel itself to save the love of its life.

This looks AWESOME. Also, here it is:

One Small Step — TAIKO Studios presents the story of Luna, a Chinese American girl who dreams of becoming an astronaut.

Oh my god, these just keep getting better and better. Here’s this one:

Pépé le Morse — On the windy and cloudy beach, Granny is praying, Mum is shouting, the sisters don’t care, Lucas is alone. Grandpa was a weird guy, now he’s dead.

Here’s this one:

Weekends — ‘Weekends’ is the story of a young boy shuffling between the homes of his recently divorced parents. Surreal dream-like moments mix with the domestic realities of a broken up family in this hand animated film set in 1980’s Toronto.

This is by a Pixar animator. Here’s a trailer:

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What a strong year this looks like. I’m so excited to see all of these. And what’s even better, I can see half of them like, right now.

I have not watched these, just FYI, and I’m basing my guesses of a category (because you know I have to) based solely on the stills on the trailers and the synopses in front of me.

And my guess, based on nothing, is this category:

Age of Sail

Bao

Late Afternoon

Lost & Found

Weekends

But I’ll watch all of these soon enough. This article is really about getting us used to the potential nominees so we can do our homework over the next month. This year looks like a real treat in this category, and I, for one, am here for it.

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Okay, now we’re at the last two shortlists, and I deliberately saved these for last because they’re the two newest and the two I’m least familiar with.

They narrowed down Score and Song? What? Sure, Score, it just makes it easier to guess, but do I want that? I had more fun when it was harder. And I had to guess from 120 scores. I’d go through, eliminate all but like, 35, and then I’d say “here’s fifteen that I guess could, but probably not,” and then end up with 20 that I think are the main contenders and then sort of rank what I think their chances are and narrow it down that way. Here, they do all the work for me! That’s not fun! And we’ll get to Song later. That’s just a travesty.

There were 156 eligible scores, and they’ve narrowed it down to 15. So 1/3 of this will be your category. Here is your shortlist for Best Original Score:

Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
The Death of Stalin
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One
Vice

So yeah, that’s it. Five of these fifteen will be nominated.

Just glancing at this — Mary Poppins, First Man, Beale Street, Isle of Dogs and one other one. That’s probably your category.

But just looking at this — why does it seem like no one actually listened to the scores and are just voting for what the “trendy” movies are? Is no one else noticing this? Why are we bastardizing the point of the categories? The worst part is, we don’t even know what the ones are that got let out. What’s that about? This is weird. They didn’t disclose the other 141 scores and just gave us the 15. They didn’t tell us just how we got to this — did the branch listen to all 156 scores, or were they given five minute snippets and were left to go from there?

Show of hands — who remembers the BlacKkKlansman score? I picked that one over some others because I love that movie. Still couldn’t tell you any moment of that score. Seems like they shortlisted it purely because it’s BlacKkKlansman and for no other reason. Crazy Rich Asians — particularly score-heavy, that movie? Really? All these changes are really starting to get away from the point of the category, which is to nominate what people truly think are the best pieces of work. If you could tell me that people honestly believed that, then I will go with it. Here, it just seems like they’re going with what they think people want.

But yeah, I honestly think those four I said above are totally gonna make it. Maybe Isle of Dogs gets left off, but i feel like Desplat won for a Wes Anderson score last time, so it makes sense. Ready Player One isn’t John Williams — but do they know that? That seems like something I would automatically assume is the last one. Beasts… unlikely, if the first one was left off. Are any of them Thomas Newman? Because they like nominating him regardless. But you know what? I’m not gonna look at who it is. Because I’m gonna try to treat this as though it’s on the up and up.

Buster Scruggs — tough, because Carter Burwell was utterly ignored for years, only getting his first two nominations in the past three years. Maybe. Avengers and Black Panther… would need to see it to believe it. They haven’t done it yet. Hard to automatically assume at this juncture they go there. I’ll also need to listen to the scores first (which I will do. I’m coming in prepared in January, don’t you worry). Annihilation… tough call. My gut says no, because I’m guessing it’s the same composers he used last time. I feel like they’re more likely to go with someone bigger. It seems kind of incestuous in this branch. Death of Stalin… wouldn’t that be surprising. Quiet Place… that’s Beltrami. That’s a possibility. Vice is Britell, who will already be on for Beale Street.

Honestly, I feel like those are the six. The four I said, Ready Player One and Quiet Place. I feel like your category makes most sense in there, based on nothing at the moment.

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

A Quiet Place

Ready Player One

Let’s guess that for now. I’ll leave Desplat off, knowing I’ll have to consider him more later. But shit, that certainly looks like a category, doesn’t it?

I’ll listen to all of these in the next month and let you know what I’m thinking.

Last shortlist, coming up.

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Okay, your final shortlist, and the one that hurts the most.

Do you know how much I loved going through all 90-some-odd Original Song eligibles each year and working my way through them? At least give me the full list before you reduce it to 15! Where’s the fun in this?!

Now I just have 15, and it’s gonna be really obvious what the major contenders are, and we’re all working off a curve, and it’s so much easier. Where’s the skill in guessing this? Man, they are fucking up, all in the name of… I don’t even know what.

There were 90 songs eligible this year, and they deprived us of 75 of them before we had a chance to find out. (Disgusting.) I can’t even sit there and do the votes and figure things out, and have fun with it. Now it’s just boring. Thanks, Academy.

Here is your shortlist for Best Original Song:

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

As amusing as this song is, and as great as it is in the moment, I have a hard time thinking they actually nominate it. I’d love it, but that feels unlikely. Especially since I feel like this category will already be 60% full on gimmes before we get to the rest of the spots.

I’d put this top ten, but I don’t know if this makes the final list. But let’s see what else we have. You never know.

“Treasure,” from Beautiful Boy

Huh? Who is Sampha? This seems out of place for them. Especially since I already saw they only went one Star Is Born song (which is ultimately better for the film, but still). Weird choice.

It’s not even that interesting a song? This would be bottom five for me automatically and probably my least likely contender by the time we get finished.

“All the Stars,” from Black Panther

This has to be considered a legit contender because Black Panther is the jerk off movie of the year. They’re all gonna nominate it everywhere because they think it makes them seem young and hip. And who knows, by the time we get to the end, this may be legitimately one of the best songs on this list. Their tests tend to be weird.

It’s not a bad song. Just sounds like a decent song you’d hear on the radio. I’m not really sure what it has to do with the film, but I don’t know what their criteria are anymore for this. My guess is this ends up in the top seven by sheer fact that it’ll get votes. But we’ll see.

“Revelation,” from Boy Erased

This got a Globe nomination, I’m pretty sure. Which means nothing, but is worth noting. I think Black Panther also did. But whatever. I’m going based on the songs themselves.

This is the kind of song I’d hear each year and go, “That’s not very good,” and assume they won’t nominate it because I have to think most people feel the same way. I could be wrong, but this seems like I’d put it hovering around that 9-11 mark. Maybe even slightly lower. 12 feels like it could be right. Let’s see where we end up. My gut says this won’t be nominated.

“Girl In The Movies,” from Dumplin’

It’s fucking Dolly. They may nominate her on principle. She got on for Transamerica. This is a major contender. Top 8 before she even starts singing. (I’m typing this as I listen, by the way.)

Though if we’re just going on my gut (and typically that is what works for me)… I feel like this doesn’t end up on the list. I feel like this is the red herring I follow each year that they leave off.

Still, it’s a good song. I wouldn’t be totally against this, if it made it.

“We Won’t Move,” from The Hate U Give

Is Common gonna be on this? He seems like a staple on songs like this in recent years. Plus he’s in the movie.

This song doesn’t sound like it’ll be for them. It’s an anthem though. You can’t totally rule it out, but this doesn’t strike me as their speed. Unless Diane Warren wrote it. Then it’ll probably be nominated. But I’m pretty sure she’s coming up in a bit.

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” from Mary Poppins Returns

It’s Mary Poppins. This is on until it’s not. Don’t fuck around. You put them both on and wait to be wrong. You should know the drill by now.

This is exactly the reason this category exists. Songs like this. It’s not the greatest song ever, but it works. I feel like it’s too fast. But maybe that’s just me.

“Trip A Little Light Fantastic,” from Mary Poppins Returns

This is the “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious” of this sequel. And it’s the one that should be nominated regardless of what happens to the other song. This is the showstopper number in the film, and is the reason this category exists. This is top two. Literally the only reason it’s not #1 is because we already know what’s winning this year. Also, think about them performing this — they’re gonna nominate it.

As a song, it’s long, they built in a rap for Lin-Manuel, the lyrics are… are there lyrics? It shouldn’t win, but it’ll be right at home being nominated and losing to the eventual winner. I feel like this one will be adjudicated properly in the end.

“Keep Reachin’,” from Quincy

It’s Quincy Jones and Mark Ronson. I get it. Will they nominate it? Doubtful, but anything’s possible. Why doubtful? Because does this feel like them?

That said, this is fun as hell. Not sure I’d put this in my top five, but this is way more interesting than that first Mary Poppins song. But as a nominee in this category, I’m not really sure it makes any sense whatsoever.

“I’ll Fight,” from RBG

And here’s Diane Warren… with a song from a Ruth Bader Ginsburg documentary, sung by Jennifer Hudson.

I am not gonna be caught with this off my list. This is 100% on my final category guess, and I’m locking that in right now.

This is also the kind of anthem they go for. Why would you not think this is gonna be on until it isn’t?

This is the kind of song I’m fine with, would rate like fourth in a final category, but be totally cool with. I’m good with this.

“A Place Called Slaughter Race,” from Ralph Breaks the Internet

It’s definitely a fun song. Amusing inside the film. Would they nominate this? A song that’s a parody of Disney princess songs? My instinct says no, but I can’t entirely rule it out either.

“OYAHYTT,” from Sorry to Bother You

I saw this on the list and secretly said, “Please, please don’t let this be what he sings at Armie Hammer’s party.”

But oh, this is the song in the trailer. I had no idea it was original for the movie. That’s awesome. This song actually epitomizes the movie for me. So I’m not against it if they nominated this. They won’t, but I really like this. And Lakeith gets a verse, which is sweet.

“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

This is the winner of the category. We all know this. It will win, and it should win. What more needs to be said?

“Suspirium,” from Suspiria

A HA HA HA holy shit. Imagine this being nominated.

This is one of those, I’m not even gonna allow myself to think it’s even a possibility. No fucking way.

Let me say though — I would LOVE it. LOVE IT. But I’d also never allow my hopes to be raised. So, for me, it’s not getting nominated, and the minute it is, I’m gonna shit. Because this song is awesome. And also, Academy Award nominee Thom Yorke.

Which would also then mean that two members of the band Radiohead would be Academy Award nominees.

I’m still laughing as I type this.

Oh my god, imagine that actually happening.

“The Big Unknown,” from Widows

Oh, what, Sade sings this? I had no clue. And that’s awesome.

I didn’t even know this was a song. I’m excited to hear what it is.

Oh, this isn’t bad. Not a chance they nominate it, but it’s a pretty good song.

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Okay, so those are your 15 songs. What a letdown. I wanted 90!

Anyway, here’s my ranking of all 15, based on what I heard. That is to say, how I personally liked all the songs.

15. “Treasure,” from Beautiful Boy
14. “Revelation,” from Boy Erased
13. “We Won’t Move,” from The Hate U Give
12. “Keep Reachin’,” from Quincy
11. “A Place Called Slaughter Race,” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
10. “The Big Unknown,” from Widows
9. “Girl In The Movies,” from Dumplin’
8. “All the Stars,” from Black Panther
7. “I’ll Fight,” from RBG
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” from Mary Poppins Returns
5. “OYAHYTT,” from Sorry to Bother You
4. “Trip A Little Light Fantastic,” from Mary Poppins Returns
3. “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. “Suspirium,” from Suspiria
1. “Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

That’s just me. Which means my category, by default, would be:

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

“Trip A Little Light Fantastic,” from Mary Poppins Returns

“OYAHYTT,” from Sorry to Bother You

“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

“Suspirium,” from Suspiria

I mean, if I were quibbling, and thinking about the point of the category, I might swap on the RBG song or the second Poppins song, but I’m fine. I like all these. I know the Sorry to Bother You song probably shouldn’t be nominated, but who cares. They nominate nonsense all the time. This is purely subjective anyway. This next part is the only one that matters.

– – – – – – – – – –

Here’s how I think the shortlisted songs rank in terms of likelihood of being nominated:

15. “Treasure,” from Beautiful Boy

14. “Keep Reachin’,” from Quincy

13. “Revelation,” from Boy Erased

12. “OYAHYTT,” from Sorry to Bother You

11. “The Big Unknown,” from Widows

10. “We Won’t Move,” from The Hate U Give

9. “Suspirium,” from Suspiria

8. “A Place Called Slaughter Race,” from Ralph Breaks the Internet

7. “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

6. “Girl In The Movies,” from Dumplin’

5. “All the Stars,” from Black Panther

4. “I’ll Fight,” from RBG

3. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” from Mary Poppins Returns

2. “Trip A Little Light Fantastic,” from Mary Poppins Returns

1. “Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

That’s based on nothing, really, but how I feel they’ve voted since I’ve been looking at these things.

I feel like 11-15 we should all agree on. The other ten are negotiable.

1-4 we should all leave on until otherwise noted. How can you not figure 1-3 are all on (how you gonna split those two songs? There’s no way to pick one without the other because there’s no real way to say one is more likely to be nominated over the other)? #4, okay, maybe you think they won’t nominate it. But Diane Warren has nine Oscar nominations and three since 2014. A nomination here is four in five years. Hard to ignore that.

So that leaves one spot and probably four potential songs fighting for it. My cynical nature says Black Panther gets on. Would I go there? No, but that’s not what this part of the article is for. This is objectivity.

I’d say, for me — Black Panther, Dumplin’, Buster Scruggs, and pick one more. I’m not sure Ralph really makes it. Suspiria, I can’t see it as much as I’d love it. Maybe I’d say The Hate U Give just because I wouldn’t wanna be caught not having it. But honestly, I think those three are the ones.

Honestly, I think they do three of the four I’ve already said, and if they leave a Mary Poppins song off, then they can get on Black Panther and Dolly. I feel like Buster Scruggs doesn’t get on in almost any scenario, but it’s in that conversation.

Truly, I think you guess either Black Panther or Dolly as the first alternate, and then put that one on your list.

So right now, this is my guess of the final category.

“All the Stars,” from Black Panther

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” from Mary Poppins Returns

“Trip A Little Light Fantastic,” from Mary Poppins Returns

“I’ll Fight,” from RBG

“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

Seems kind of easy, right?

Probably too easy to be true, with this branch. We have a month to figure it out.

That’s your final shortlist. I’m back to year-end stuff tomorrow. We’re downhill on 2018, folks.

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Oh, whoops. Thought I posted this earlier. So I guess this is the final shortlist. Go figure, this is the forgotten category. Just like at the Oscars.

Because like you, I don’t have any clue what these things are. You find out when they announce them, you scour the internet for anything you can find about them and then you make broad generalizations about, “Well, they do like shorts about refugees…”

Apparently 104 films counted for this category, and they’ve shortlisted 10. So our lives were made easier by 90%.

Here is your Documentary Short Shortlist:

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
Los Comandos
My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
’63 Boycott
Women of the Gulag
Zion

My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes honestly should win this category on name alone.

But anyway, let’s find out what the hell these things are about:

Black Sheep — After the high-profile killing of Damilola Taylor, Cornelius’ family move out of London. But when they discover their new town is run by racists, Cornelius takes a drastic step to survive.

You can watch Black Sheep with Prime Video or here.

End Game — Filmed and edited in intimate vérité style, this movie follows visionary medical practitioners who are working on the cutting edge of life and death and are dedicated to changing our thinking about both.

End Game is available on Netflix.

Lifeboat — Volunteers from a German non-profit risk the waves of the Mediterranean to pluck refugees from sinking rafts pushing off from Libya in the middle of the night. LIFEBOAT puts a human face on one of the world’s greatest contemporary, global crises and provides a spark of hope surrounding how civil society can intervene in the refugee crisis in a meaningful way.

I do not think this is currently available to watch online.

Los Comandos — In El Salvador, gang violence has overrun the country, disproportionately targeting children and teenagers, and turning it into ‘The Murder Capital of the World’. The emergency medical unit, Los Commandos de Salvamento is one of the few institutions standing up to the gangs’ reign of terror, and is a place of refuge and community for young people. 16 year old Mimi is a dedicated Commando caught in the violence. When her friend and fellow Commando, 12 year old Erick Beltran, is gunned down while serving, she faces pressure to leave El Salvador and Los Commandos, and head north for a better life.

I do not think this is currently available to watch online.

My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes — A short documentary that follows director Charlie Tyrell as he tries to uncover a better understanding of his deceased father through the random objects he inherited, including a pile of VHS dirty movies.

This is a NY Times OpDoc, so you can watch it here.

A Night at the Garden — Archival footage of an American Nazi rally that attracted 20,000 people at Madison Square Garden in 1939, shortly before the beginning of World War 2.

And you can watch that one, right here:

Period. End of Sentence. — In a rural village outside Delhi, India, women lead a quiet revolution. They fight against the deeply rooted stigma of menstruation. “Period. End of Sentence.” — a documentary short directed by Rayka Zehtabchi — tells their story. For generations, these women didn’t have access to pads, which lead to health problems and girls missing school or dropping out entirely. But when a sanitary pad machine is installed in the village, the women learn to manufacture and market their own pads, empowering the women of their community. They name their brand “FLY,” because they want women “to soar.” Their flight is, in part, enabled by the work of high school girls half a world away, in California, who raised the initial money for the machine and began a non-profit called “The Pad Project.”

I do not think this is currently available to watch online.

’63 Boycott — 63 Boycott chronicles the Chicago School boycott of 1963 when more than 200,000 Chicagoans, mostly CPS students, marched to protest the segregationist policies of CPS Superintendent Benjamin Willis, who placed aluminum mobile school units on vacant lots as a permanent solution to overcrowding in black schools. The Kartemquin film features then and now interviews with organizers and participants of the boycott with never-released 16mm footage of the march and student interviews. 63 Boycott and its companion website will provide a modern perspective on the impact and legacy of this forgotten history 50 years later as it reconnects the participants to each other and the event itself.

I do not think this is currently available to watch online.

Women of the Gulag — Survivors of the Gulags share their stories of repression and terror.

I do not think this is currently available to watch online.

Zion — A portrait of Zion Clark, a young wrestler who was born without legs and grew up in foster care.

This is available to watch on Netflix.

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Based on nothing, here is my guess for a category:

End Game

Los Comandos

Period. End of Sentence.

’63 Boycott

Women of the Gulag

Honestly that’s just pure guessing. Zion sounds like it could get on, honestly most of these sounds like they could get on. I’ve done less than zero research on this.

But I’m not rooting for anything more than I’m rooting for “My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes.”

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The Producers Guild announced their nominations today. I can already tell you like five of them. This is the year of the mainstream. All the obvious contenders will be there. The real question is how this ends up influencing the final list of contenders… and how many there are gonna be. That will be the most interesting part. Will they get 8 nominees?

We still have BAFTA to come before I really start looking at everything, but for now, this will be an interesting gauge of where we’re at.

Here are your PGA nominees:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Green Book

A Quiet Place

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

You know what the most surprising entry on that list is? It’s not Crazy Rich Asians. It’s Vice. I really didn’t see that one coming. The rest, sure. Crazy Rich Asians, not really something I thought I was getting, but I’m not surprised to see it there. Not with a year like this. Vice — I thought everyone hated it. So I’m really curious to see if that makes a final list.

The PGA is generally about 7/10 in these things. Last year, they had 7 (missed Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour). 2016, they got 9/9. 2015, 7/8 (missed Room), 2014, 7/8 (missed Selma), 2013, 8/9 (missed Philomena), 2012, 8/9 (missed Amour), 2011, 7/9 (missed Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Tree of Life).

BAFTA can be somewhat helpful there, but also, common sense generally helps as well. Last year, you knew Wonder Woman wasn’t gonna be nominated for Best Picture. It’s shit like that, plus what the general contenders are and the other precursors. You can usually figure out most of them.

This already feels like the year of the “popular” film. Which makes it a curious benchmark for the Oscars, because either it’s an outlier because of an exceptionally weak year, or it’s a precursor of things to come, with them watering down and broadening the Academy membership enough to where we’re basically giving out the IMDB awards.

That said, at the moment — SAG nominated Black Panther, BlacKkKklansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, seven of these (save A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians and Bohemian Rhapsody) were nominated at BFCA and A Star Is Born, and eight of these ten (minus Roma and Vice) were nominated at the Globes.

The big snub here seems to be If Beale Street Could Talk. Mary Poppins wasn’t nominated either, but 1) I don’t think it needed to, and 2) I don’t think that rules it out. BFCA nominated First Man, but that felt like all that was ever gonna get.

There’s really nothing else that was in the conversation, based on all the precursors. And there’s really nothing left out there that could come on because it broke late, a la Phantom Thread. The Mule broke late, but no one seems to care. I think we’re in this pool right now, and it’s just a matter of who’s left once they find that poo floating.

Roma, Green Book, A Star Is Born, BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite all seem like locks right now.

After that, Black Panther has hit everything, so you almost have to figure they’ll nominate it at this point. If BAFTA goes there too, then it’s on. If not, then you have a conversation about whether or not it slips off.

Bohemian Rhapsody hit the big one. If BAFTA nominates that, then it’s on. If not, it’s probably hanging around the end of your list for “could get on, but not a lock.” Vice is on more solid ground than it was, but is not a lock by any stretch. You definitely wanna see more precursors in some of the guilds (namely ACE or WGA) before you feel confident that it will get on. For now, it’s hovering around that cut line, I’d think. BAFTA will help it, if they go there.

Crazy Rich Asians feels like the PGA only kinda movie. Could be wrong, but that’s my gut on that. And A Quiet Place also feels like it’s PGA only. But again, a BAFTA nomination changes everything.

I think Beale Street could still easily get on, and the minute I see it nominated for BAFTA Best Picture, I’m gonna end up with it right around #7 or #8 on my list. I think that’s still firmly in contention. Mary Poppins has Disney behind it. So I wonder if this is a case of them putting all their eggs in the Black Panther basket or if PGA just didn’t have enough spots. Or maybe no one thinks it’s that good. Globes and BFCA aren’t strong precursors. If BAFTA goes for it, then it’s firmly stepping over some of the nominees from PGA. If not, it’s possible I guess it could get in, but it would be a much longer shot.

BAFTA is in five days, so I guess we’ll know then. For now, you’re looking at the majority of your Best Picture list.

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And then, while we’re here, because they announced them, the PGA also announced their documentary and animated nominees.

In documentary:

The Dawn Wall

Free Solo

Hal

Into the Okavango

RBG

Three Identical Strangers

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Four of these are shortlisted for the Oscar, so I figured it was worth mentioning.

At this point, we’d all be pretty shocked if ‘Neighbor’ and RBG aren’t on the final list. Free Solo is 50/50, and ‘Strangers’ seems likely, but you never really can tell with that documentary branch, can you? Life Itself got left off the year it was a runaway winner, so I’m not putting anything past them.

And now for animated:

The Grinch

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Oh, so the most mainstream of the bunch.

Why do I get the sense that this is the final Oscar category?

Early Man still looms somewhat large, and I’m not ruling out Smallfoot either. I’d be pretty surprised if something like Mirai made it on, but at this point, anything is better than these final five. Especially since Spider-Verse has probably earned itself a solid placement on the final category.

Man, I’m getting more and more down on this one the more I think about it.

Oh well, at least I’ll get to start thinking about all the technical categories soon.

More Release Calendar coming, and then we’ll get into some more year-end wrap up stuff the next few weeks while all the guilds start announcing.

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The Golden Globes are tonight. Completely forgot that was happening. But also that has to do with the fact that I was otherwise engaged the past few weeks. Still, a nice surprise to get home and realize, “Oh yeah, I’ve got something to watch tonight.”

I never put any effort into these predictions, so I’ll just write them up now before the show. It’ll be interesting to see if they wait until the football game is over or straight up just switch over. Probably not the worst situation to be in, if you’re NBC.

Anyway, let’s see what we’ve got here. The results shouldn’t matter so much, but they will kick off Oscar season proper, being our first precursors out there before BFCA next weekend. And then it’ll just be guild nominations galore the next ten days. Can’t wait.

Anyway, this is my reminder of what the hell is nominated tonight and what I’m pulling out of my ass as to what I think will win.

Best Picture – Drama

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

I like that they nominated Beale Street. I’m assuming they go all in on Star Is Born, unless they wanna do the Barry Jenkins double up. I can’t imagine it’s any of the other three. Sounds to me like it’ll be one or the other. Gun to my head, they do Star Is Born. But we’ll see.

Of note, most or all of these should be nominated for Best Picture, so that’s good, I guess.

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice

Green Book should win, but I’m not ruling out The Favourite. Can’t see them going for anything else, unless this is “Woke Globes” and they’re straight up gonna do Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. My guess is Green Book first, The Favourite second. If The Favourite wins, it becomes a player for Best Picture. Not that I think it ever could, but it’s getting nominated all over the place, for way more than I ever thought it could. So I’m not ruling that out. Poppins seems to be the empty nominee (all nominations, no wins), and Vice would be a statement by them. But Big Short didn’t win, so I’m not expecting that. I’ll go with Green Book. That seems like obvious choice.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

I don’t think Farrelly wins even if Green Book wins Picture. Cooper makes sense to go along with the Star Is Born Picture win, especially if they’re not gonna give him Best Actor. Not to mention, they love giving this to actors.

Cuaron is the one that makes the most sense to me. That movie feels extremely like their cup of tea. I’d put Spike as a distant third choice.

Also, I like that they liked Vice. It’s not getting that kind of support everywhere.

My guess, Cuaron or Cooper wins this. I’ll favor Cuaron, but wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Cooper take it.

Best Actor – Drama

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Oh, well shit. This is gonna be Cooper, isn’t it?

Hedges has no momentum, Malek would be a real statement, but in Drama, that’s a tall order. Washington seems unlikely, and Dafoe… don’t think that movie’s out there enough.

So okay, that makes sense to me. Star Is Born wins Picture, Roma wins Director, Cooper wins Actor. That feels like how this would normally play out. So that’s how I’m going here.

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy

Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

It’s Bale v. Viggo. Gotta assume Bale, but if Viggo’s making a legitimate play for it, it starts here.

Redford doesn’t feel like someone they’d go for, Miranda would be a starfucker bet and not the kind of thing they normally do here, and Reilly is just a filler nominee.

I’m thinking Bale, and if it’s not him, it’s Viggo. This seems pretty straightforward, and is the reason they backed themselves into a corner in Drama.

Best Actress – Drama

Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War

It’s Gaga. I mean, who else is left? Kidman? No one saw The Wife, let’s face it. Pike’s movie isn’t really out there, and McCarthy has no momentum.

Gaga is the one lock I could have told you before nominations were announced. I’m not even guessing an alternate. If it’s not Gaga, it’s a shocker, no matter who it is.

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Colman’s the only one with a chance in a final category. They almost have to give it to her. If it’s not Colman, they’re abstaining from the Oscar race. Blunt could win because it’s Poppins, but again, it’s an abstention if that’s the case. Wu would look nice, but would they do it? Theron would come out of nowhere, and Fisher would be nice, but I feel like they wanna guide the race, so I think that means they’re gonna go Colman. And I’d say Blunt as a secondary choice. Though I guess Blunt could be a primary, knowing them. It’ll be one or the other.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Interesting, interesting.

Ali’s the only one that feels like he has a case. Driver is good, but for a win? Rockwell won last year and probably just got nominated because they like him. Chalamet… maybe? Grant could win, that would certainly be an interesting start to this race.

It’s really looking like Ali wins this en route to two in three years. This is a pretty weak category this year. For once.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

They’re not gonna be able to properly split the Favourite nominees, which means Regina King takes this easily. Foy maybe, because they like her. Doubt Adams gets any traction in this.

It’s King vs. the field in this one. I don’t know who I’d call the second choice. Weisz or Stone. But how do you pick between them?

That split could be what gives Regina King a win at the Oscars. We’ll see how it starts.

Best Screenplay

The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice

It’ll be one of the top three. My guess is Green Book, then Beale Street. Screenplay tends to go wherever they want. Theoretically Cuaron could win, but that would only be if they loved Roma. If Cuaron wins Director, Screenplay and Foreign Language, that means it would have been their Best Picture winner and everything else was a compromise vote.

Vice… I don’t see it happening. I’m thinking Green Book or Jenkins. I’m not sure why I don’t think The Favourite is a top two choice, but I just do. Could easily win. I have no fucking clue. I’m thinking Green Book. That makes sense. Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay.

Best Original Score

Black Panther
First Man
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place

I honestly don’t care. Desplat won last year and has two wins. This is Beltrami’s first nomination, and theoretically he could win, because they do whatever the fuck they want in this category. Black Panther could win as a token show of support for that. I’m thinking First Man probably takes it. Based on nothing. Honestly I have no idea.

Best Original Song

“All the Stars,” from Black Panther
“Revelation,” from Boy Erased
“Girl in the Movies,” from Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” from A Private War
“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

“Shallow.” Next.

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Isle of Dogs feels like them. Spider-Verse doesn’t feel like it translates to the Foreign Press, but maybe. Isle of Dogs or Incredibles. It should be one or the other.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Roma should win. If it’s not Roma, then I guess Shoplifters?

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And now… TV. Oh boy!

Best TV Series – Drama

The Americans
Bodyguard
Homecoming
Killing Eve
Pose

Killing Eve wins this, right? Isn’t that the big trendy show now?

Or does The Americans win on the way out?

Best TV Series – Musical or Comedy

Barry
The Good Place
Kidding
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Maisel, did it win last year? Does it matter? It’ll probably win now, right? Or maybe The Good Place. Those feel like the two “hip” choices for them.

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Stephan James, Homecoming
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Billy Porter, Pose
Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Based on nothing, I’ll say Richard Madden, though Matthew Rhys also makes sense for them.

Best Actor in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy

Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry

I hope it’s Sacha Baron Cohen. If it’s not him, I don’t care. I’m cool with all these people, but Cohen should win purely for what he’ll say when he goes up there.

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans

Balfe is always a red herring each year. Moss won last year. Oh is hosting, so I imagine they’ll just do that? I’m getting the sense that the Americans nominations are all red herrings and they’ll take home one token award and nothing else.

Best Actress in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy

Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, Glow
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace

Brosnahan should win. Or maybe it’s Bell. Doubt any of the others win this.

Best Miniseries or TV Movie

The Alienist
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Escape at Dannemora
Sharp Objects
A Very English Scandal

Dannemora would be cool, but I assume it’s Versace or Sharp Objects, right?

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal

Criss won all the other awards, right? So him?

Grant would be cool. Just to see him relevant again.

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds

If King doesn’t win up there, she’ll win this, right? Or no, Adams wins this. Or Dern. One or the other. Let’s say Adams.

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry

Uhh… Winkler? Let’s root for him. We all love him.

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale

Clarkson, right? Let’s say her.

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Globes are on in like, an hour or something. Depending on how long this game goes. Also, the Release Calendar article is coming soon too. Finishing that up now.

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It’s shortlist-apalooza today. Four of them. Big ones, too. Arguably the main four we want to see.

We’ll start with Best Editing, because that’s the one I happened to click on first.

The American Cinema Editors announce five nominees in Dramatic, five nominees in Comedy, and then also announce documentary and animated, which I’ll touch on, but only because it usually just further tells me where things seem to be heading, which we pretty much know already anyway.

Here are your nominees for Best Editing by the Editors Guild:

Best Editing (Dramatic)

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

I guess we should take it one category at a time.

I’m not remotely surprised about any of this. First Man was the only one that felt like it could/would be an Oscar contender over Best Picture stuff.

The past couple years… I think last year was the only one where they had more than one non-Best Picture nominee in Editing in the past couple years. Let me do a quick check… yeah, that’s the only one in the last ten with more than one non-Best Picture nominee, and a lot of the years had all five as Best Picture nominees.

So seeing as how these four are solidly in contention, all this really does is further solidify Bohemian Rhapsody as a real contender (which I’m sure makes critics and the internet thrilled).

Otherwise, BlacKkKlansman, Roma and Star Is Born have been there throughout. Honestly the only thing we have to try to gauge is what will ultimately be left off, because there’s at least one possible nominee in this next category.

Best Editing (Comedy)

Crazy Rich Asians

Deadpool 2

The Favourite

Green Book

Vice

The Favourite, Green Book and maybe Vice are the ones you gotta look at. Crazy Rich Asians would shock me if it got an Editing nomination. Picture… moderate surprise, but not shock. Editing, I’d be shocked. And Deadpool, sure. Interesting they didn’t go Black Panther. I’m guessing because that was considered Dramatic. Not that I felt it will or should get nominated for Editing, regardless of its Best Picture contender status.

So what are your PGA Best Picture nominees?

BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

All but Black Panther and A Quiet Place are represented here, and those two are missing probably because of lack of spots.

So that tells me, your serious Best Picture contenders (for the win, assuming they are nominated) are: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, and I guess Vice. That’s seven. And add First Man as a non-Best Picture contender for Editing. That’s eight.

My gut tells me five of those eight will be nominated for Best Editing. Crazy Rich Asians and Black Panther feel like red herrings (for Editing). Vice is the kind of movie that could get nominated for Editing even if it’s not gonna end up in the Best Picture field. I still don’t know how they’re gonna respond to that one as a whole. That’s the kind of movie that feels like it might get left off.

I’d say for sure, expect A Star Is Born, Green Book and Roma to get on Editing. Those three feel like the main three that are in contention. If Bohemian Rhapsody is as loved as things are starting to look, you have to think that would get on. To me, it feels like the empty Best Picture nominee that doesn’t get on Editing, but what do I know? The Favourite is 50/50. If they love it as much as some precursors mights suggest, it’ll need Editing to contend. Same for BlacKkKlansman, though why do I think that’ll end up without an Editing nomination in the end? Honestly I think you start with your main three and then have two spots left and five movies to choose from. I still have a few weeks and more precursors to look at, but that’s my thinking on this at the moment.

Stab in the dark, I think your final category could be: Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born. If I had to pick any alternate, I’d say The Favourite for Bohemian Rhapsody. But usually I reserve that one spot for the movie that they love more than you think they’re gonna. Dallas Buyers Club, Hell or High Water. Movies you thought would get on Picture but not on Editing. To me, Bohemian Rhapsody is starting to look like that one for this year. But we’ll see. Still lots of time left for things to fall into place.

Best Editing (Animation)

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Oh, that’s it, just three? Okay, but I could have told you these were the primary three that will be nominated. And we put Wreck-It Ralph fourth, even though that’s not currently a lock, and then the fifth spot is the open one. So really this just told me the primary three for the win, which I would hope anyone studying the Oscars could have told you just on instinct alone.

Best Editing (Documentary)

Free Solo

RBG

Three Identical Strangers

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

So just four here? And the same four getting nominated everywhere else.

So yeah, this also tells me that I will have to guess all four of these on my nominations list, knowing at least one of them will end up being wrong, because the Documentary branch is perhaps the most screwy branch out there.

That said, I liked all four of these docs, so I’m perfectly fine with this.

More shortlists coming as fast as I can type them up.

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We’ll go to ASC next, because it’s one category and only five nominees. And also because I love cinematography.

Here are your 2018 American Society of Cinematographers nominees:

Best Cinematography

Cold War

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Alrighty, then.

I don’t really have anything to base this on. I haven’t delved deep into tech categories (or anything, really). But I mean, yeah. Roma and Cold War seem obvious. First Man makes a lot of sense (I wonder if that movie will end up with six nominations, none of them major. Editing, Cinematography, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, possibly Visual Effects. That’s six, and that’s before potential Supporting Actress, Actor, Picture or Director opportunities). A Star Is Born… I’m glad they recognized it. Not sure if it makes the final list, but at this point, why not. And The Favourite… they must have liked all the fish eyes. That’s another one, if it snags Cinematography and/or Editing could be on its way to 8 or so nominations. (Picture, Screenplay, three acting, that’s five right there. And that’s before a possible Director nomination. And you know it’s a shoo-in for Production Design and Costumes. That’s basically seven before you start figuring out all the little odds and ends.)

Beale Street seems unfairly overlooked in this one. And someone nominated Black Panther for cinematography. I’m guessing it was BFCA. I’m glad the guild didn’t go there. Definitely not a great looking movie.

BAFTA’s gonna be a big one for this, since usually the guild and BAFTA are the two you look at.

This one seems like a fairly cut and dry year. These five plus maybe Beale Street as the final category. Five from six certainly would make my (guessing) life easier.

Also of note, Picture, Director, Cinematography and Screenplay, Alfonso Cuaron could be nominated in four separate categories this year.

Either ADG or WGA will be next. It’s honestly whichever article I click on first. Feel the anticipation.

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Well I guess Production Design is next.

The Art Directors Guild breaks their nominees down into three categories: Period, Fantasy, Contemporary. Contemporary practically never gets nominated at the Oscars, unless it’s something that crosses over into Fantasy (a la Her or The Martian, which I think both ended up there. There are definitely two in recent years that blur the line). Anyway, this should give us a smattering of where things are looking for Production Design.

Here are your 2018 ADG nominees:

Period Film

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

There’s Bohemian Rhapsody again. Everyone’s underestimating this movie. People love it across the board.

Hard for me to really start going into what could have gone here instead. But yeah, these ones make a lot of sense. Doubt Buster Scruggs manages anything in the end, but it definitely makes sense here.

No Green Book is slightly of note. But did anyone really remember the production design in that one?

Fantasy Film

Black Panther

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

The House with a Clock in Its Walls

Mary Poppins Returns

Ready Player One

Oh yeah, the Poppins. That’s a contender here. So is Fantastic Beasts.

Ready Player One would be a real long shot on a final category, and the other two won’t come near it. Unless they really decide to go all in on Black Panther. And I’m not convinced it’s for sure getting the Best Picture nomination yet. One step at a time with that.

Contemporary Film

Crazy Rich Asians

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

A Quiet Place

A Star Is Born

Welcome to Marwen

I mean, honestly if I’m gonna nominate any of these, it’s Marwen. But that won’t happen. But also a lot of that production design is Visual Effects? The real world stuff is just shitty houses and grassy areas. So yeah, maybe not.

They’d have to really love Crazy Rich Asians or A Star Is Born to put them on the final category. I’m thinking not a chance.

So based solely on what I see here, I’d think your major contenders for it are:

Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts, The Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins, Roma

And throw in Green Book just to be safe.

Anything not here would probably need BAFTA to become a legitimate contender. (Suspiria, anyone?) I’m thinking Beale Street and BlacKkKlansman are the only two standing to benefit there.

But honestly, of those — Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins, Roma, TBD. That certainly looks like your category. Could be Bohemian Rhapsody, could be Fantastic Beasts, could end up being Green Book. That certainly looks like how this one shakes out. But again, still time to look at stuff.

Oh, and they announced Animated nominees too: The Grinch, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Into the Spider-Verse. Again, the same three choices popping up everywhere. I doubt I’ll refer to them again in the context of production design, but it is worth noting that the same three are all over the map. That’s 60% of your category done for you already.

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Okay, our final shortlist for today — the Writers Guild.

These nominations always have to be taken with a grain of salt just because there are always ineligible scripts each year. I think because people aren’t actually guild members. The ones that I know for sure that weren’t eligible this year were: The Favourite, Hereditary, Sorry to Bother You, Death of Stalin, Incredibles 2, The Sisters Brothers and Leave No Trace.

Most of those really stood no shot at the final list, but The Favourite almost certainly will, so it not being nominated here means nothing for its ultimate chances in the end.

That said, here are your WGA nominees for 2018:

Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade

Green Book

A Quiet Place

Roma

Vice

The question is which got on in The Favourite’s spot: Eighth Grade or Quiet Place?

Doesn’t really matter. Good for them for getting nominated.

Add The Favourite and that’s probably your only real set of contenders. First Reformed has basically dropped out of the race altogether. But those seven were your BFCA nominees. So once BAFTA gives you a variation of all that plus the one British film they liked enough, we should be basically locked on that front.

Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

First Man got BFCA, but otherwise, those all seem like the ones that have made it throughout.

For my money, The Front Runner should be here. Damn shame that movie never took off. Theoretically Widows should also be here too. That’s another one that for some reason never went anywhere.

Honestly, these five look like they’re gonna be your category. Crazy Rich Asians, maybe? But even that seems doubtful.

Unless BAFTA gives me something else they really like (namely First Man), I’m thinking this is how the category ends up looking.

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Okay, the shortlist you’ve all been waiting for has been announced. BEST SOUND MIXING!

Oh, what, you thought you were getting the DGA list first? Nah. You gotta eat your salad and then you’ll get the main course.

The Cinema Audio Society also announced their nominations today, so we’re gonna talk Best Sound Mixing as well.

Sound Mixing, to remind you if you’re not all up on your categories, is the entire sound design in the film. Musicals do great here, as do war movies. Basically, if you assume Dunkirk and Baby Driver and probably Star Wars, then you’re most of the way there already. (And this is before I’ve even seen the list.)

Here are your CAS nominees for this year:

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

A Star Is Born

And then, for Animation — Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Into the Spider-Verse and The Grinch. Nothing overly surprising there.

In terms of the category, I would be shocked if Star Is Born or First Man didn’t make it on. And Bohemian Rhapsody makes a lot of sense too. Musicals always do well in this category. The question is whether or not they can take down First Man, but that’s a discussion for another day. So assuming we figure those three are on, now we have two spots left.

Does Black Panther make it on? I’m leaning toward assuming it does and seeing if and where they leave it off. It’s tough to think it makes both Sound categories, but you never know. A Quiet Place doesn’t sound like something that will end up being nominated. Especially since… no dialogue.

Personally, I’d look to one of the Best Picture nominees to slip on here, because they love nominating the movies they loved the most in the Sound categories. Maybe they already have, who knows. But I remember Birdman making both Sound categories for seemingly no reason. They will always go Best Picture nominees and then loud movies with sound designers they like. 13 Hours got on out of nowhere because it was Bay’s team. Those are the two things to really look at for what the final spot will be.

Mary Poppins could always sneak on, but that doesn’t feel like the kind of movie that gets nominations like this unless it was coming from the top down. Something like The Favourite feels more likely in Editing. Ready Player One is Spielberg, and he’s no stranger to the Sound categories. I’d keep him in contention, or at least in the discussion for that last spot. Bridge of Spies got on, though admittedly that was a top down scenario. Still, worth noting.

Also of note: no Mission: Impossible movie has ever been nominated in the Sound categories.

Roma doesn’t feel like it’ll miraculously get Sound nominations. It’s not that kind of movie. If it does, watch out in the big categories. I’m trying to think if there’s anything else that might fit this bill… and I’m not really coming up with much. Outlaw King because of the battle sequences? Unlikely. I’m thinking whatever it is will either show up on the MPSE list, or it’ll be an action movie we left for dead months ago (Solo or something). Or both, I guess.

This is definitely not last year, where you had an amazing set of Sound categories. This is one where you’ll probably have most of them the same, and it’ll feel pretty ho hum.

Right now, I can probably tell you that First Man wins Editing and it either also wins Mixing or A Star Is Born/Bohemian Rhapsody wins Mixing instead. But let’s wait for MPSE/BAFTA before we start setting things in stone.

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And your DGA nominations were announced today. Typically they match 4/5 with the Oscars, so one of these people most likely will not end up being nominated. The last time they went 5/5 was 2009. And before that, 2005. And before that, 1998. So three times in twenty years.

Oh, and because I’m nuts — it only happened two times before that: 1981 and 1977. So five times ever. Well… since the DGA went to five nominees in 1970. Before that, the DGA had ten to fifteen nominees a year, which made it way easier to have all five be nominated. And you know what? It still only happened three times in those years: 1953 (12 DGA nominees), 1954 (15 DGA nominees) and 1967 (10 DGA nominees).

So yeah, 5 times in almost 50 years. Odds are, one of these people will not be nominated at the Oscars, and I think we all know who it’s gonna be.

Here are your DGA nominees for 2018:

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Also, Best First Time Director nominations went to Cooper, Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade, Carlos Lopez Estrada for Blindspotting, Matthew Heineman for A Private War and Boots Riley for Sorry to Bother You.

Figured I’d get that out of the way before we get into the actual important shit. Cool that Estrada and Boots were nominated there.

This morning when I saw DGA was announcing, these were the only five names I could come up with that made sense. The only other person I looked at was Yorgos, because The Favourite looks like it’s a big contender. After that, we’re grasping at who else could make it. Chazelle and Jenkins have to be mentioned, but Beale Street has not caught on anywhere and for sure needs BAFTA to get in. Chazelle could get on maybe without BAFTA, but even that would be a bit of a tall order. But I could see that happening. Someone like Eastwood doesn’t seem to be coming on, so that would shock us all if it happened. Coogler is a dark horse just in case they decide to go there. Seems unlikely for the directors branch, but I’m not ruling anything out in a year like this. Hey, for all we know, these could be the five. Vice got PGA. They seem to like it.

My gut tells me right now that we have Cooper, Cuaron, Farrelly, Spike and one more.

That last spot should be either McKay, Chazelle or Yorgos. Everything else seems like a mix of surprise and shock. Mary Poppins has no traction, so Rob Marshall would shock me. Jenkins would be a surprise. A pleasant one, but a surprise. Coogler would be a shocker. Julian Schnabel would come out of nowhere.

Honestly, these could be the five. Let’s see what BAFTA has to say. There don’t seem to be any films hanging around the conversation that could sneak on a Director nomination, a la Bennett Miller. They’re not gonna nominate Bryan Singer (are they?). Quiet Place would surprise on Best Picture, let alone Director. Crazy Rich Asians shouldn’t get anything. I think we’re just about set on this one.

My gut says the fifth spot is either McKay, Yorgos or Chazelle. But again, let’s wait for BAFTA.

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BAFTA announced today. Finally the last major piece of the puzzle for Oscar nominations. This will give us everything we’re gonna get, save some more guilds, which are only for the technical stuff. All the big stuff, we now have everything we’re gonna get.

BAFTA is always good in showing you which films and performances have sneaky support that may not be represented in the American precursors. You can always guess two or three extra nominees based solely on the British support. And the other reason they’re good — they don’t fall into the trap of the mainstream. I can tell you right now, sight unseen, that they nominated Black Panther for two or less awards. Because I feel like BAFTA, more than anything now, values quality over popularity. (Though they do often fall into the trap of “British nominee over other choices.” Nobody’s perfect.) But, as that last sentence suggests, I don’t know what the nominees are yet. I like to find out as I write them up, so my reactions are pure.

So here are your BAFTA nominees for 2018:

Best Film

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Yeah, these are pretty much your top five Oscar contenders. Absolutely no surprises there. You’d figure them to go all in on The Favourite. I only really had two questions about where they’d go, which were: 1) Will Roma make it on?, and 2) Will Mary Poppins Returns make it on?

This seems to all but eliminate Poppins from Best Picture contention. At best you’re making it your #10 choice on your list. No PGA nomination, no BAFTA nomination. That’s tough. Disney seems to have put all their Oscar eggs in a different basket. And even that one may not work out in the end.

Otherwise, this confirms Roma might be your film to beat in the end. Star Is Born is slipping and needs either a PGA or BAFTA win to stay relevant as a potential winner. Green Book is gonna be there throughout and we’ll see how it performs in the precursors. BlacKkKlansman I wasn’t expecting them to nominate, but now that they did, it puts that solidly in top five contention, especially with Spike getting DGA.

Right now, your Best Picture list should be these five films, and then probably a mix of: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, Beale Street and I guess either Mary Poppins (if you think Disney will sneak it on in the end), Crazy Rich Asians (if you 100% believe in the PGA), Quiet Place (same) or First Man (if you think it can happen).

Right now, I’m thinking those top five, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther and Vice as 6-8 (in some order TBD), Beale Street as 9 (because I just feel like that can get on) and then TBD on #10. Unless something jumps up at me, that makes the most sense for guessing all the nominees right. But we have two weeks, just about, so I’ve got time to formulate final opinions.

At this point, I’m getting to the point where I don’t even care if I get everything right, I just want to lay out my thinking at every stage of the process, so that way everyone can see it, and those who are also trying to guess can see where I’m going and then recalibrate based on their own opinions. My goal is to get you all to a point where you guess better than I do.

That said — I have no idea what wins this. I think you can’t rule anything out except BlacKkKlansman. I doubt they vote for that en masse. Star Is Born I’d also say is probably the fourth choice here. Green Book I’d probably put third, just because I don’t know if that’ll be embraced overseas. I think this is between Roma and The Favourite. I can’t tell just how all in they are on The Favourite. It got a lot of nominations everywhere, but how many will it win. I’m not totally sure on that until I start seeing some wins come in. So, gut feeling right now, Roma wins. But that’s now. We’ll see where we end up come ceremony time.

Best British Film

Beast

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

McQueen

Stan & Ollie

You Were Never Really Here

Six nominees. Cool. Bohemian Rhapsody feels a bit like a cheat, since the only thing British about it is the subject matter and producer, but sure. Very happy to see You Were Never Really Here get some recognition. Stan & Ollie was always gonna catch a handful of BAFTA nominations. It was made for this ceremony. That said, The Favourite wins this unless it wins Best Film, in which case they’ll give it to Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Oh, interesting. Farrelly is the one they left off. I knew it would be one of them. And Pawlikowski got on. Which is nice. Feels very BAFTA.

Yorgos being on is the big note I take from this. I think he can get a Best Director nomination. I’m not 100% sold on McKay in that final spot. I’m not seeing a lot of Vice support thus far. I expect it to get the acting nominations and Screenplay, but that’s about it. That’s kind of what I’m expecting from the Oscars, too. Even if it manages a Picture nomination, I just don’t see it ending up with Director too. I could be wrong. I usually am. But that’s my feeling. But if that does happen, that makes Yorgos the main beneficiary of that spot, since it’s clear his film has a lot of support all across the board.

I suspect, despite all of that, Cuaron is your favorite to take this no matter how the big categories go. Unless they go Favourite across the board. Though I will also call Pawlikowski a dark horse, because that does feel like something BAFTA would do. I think it’s Cuaron, and if it’s not him, 50/50 between Yorgos and Pawlikowski.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Steve Coogan, Stan & Ollie

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

4/5 the category we’ve seen all the way through. Willem Dafoe is the cast off here, and instead they put on a Brit. Makes sense. You can tell it was them putting on a Brit because John C. Reilly was the one that’s been pushed for that movie, and instead they put Coogan on. There’s always one quintessentially British performance they put on. Never fails.

That said, we basically have 4/5 the Best Actor category locked, with Bale, Cooper, Malek and Mortensen. It’s really all just gonna come down to that fifth spot. Be it Dafoe, Gosling, John David Washington, or maybe even Ethan Hawke. That’s pretty much it, really. BAFTA not helping us means we’re pretty much down to pure guesswork. But that’s fine. One spot is easy. It’s when it’s multiple that it starts getting difficult.

I’m curious to see where they go with this one. I suspect it’ll either be Bale or Malek. But that’s one of those things I’ll get a better sense of once we get closer to the ceremony.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Viola Davis, Widows

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Viola Davis! All right! Nice to see some Widows love somewhere. Maybe not the exact place I’d have put it, but it’s something, and I’ll take it.

I was certain Emily Blunt was gonna make it on here, and that is the final death knell for Mary Poppins in the major categories. My how a few weeks makes all the difference. Blunt can still get the Oscar nomination, but man, is that movie gonna be like four or five nominations, all technical, and maybe one more somewhere else. They just have not responded to that, it seems.

But otherwise — 4/5 of the category is locked at this point. Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy.

The fifth spot is open, and it’s probably Blunt’s, just because there aren’t a whole lot of contenders out there. Yalitza Aparicio has only gotten BFCA, and would be a surprise if they included her. You have to put her top six, basically, because of a lack of other people, but it’s hard to assume she makes it on. Nicole Kidman didn’t get any traction for Destroyer (or Boy Erased, for that matter, in Supporting), so she feels like a possibility, but a #7 choice at best. Maybe #6. Her and Aparicio are the two in those spots. Toni Collette would almost shock me if she got nominated, so she’s your #8. After that — Rosamund Pike has no momentum. She’s probably #9. And that’s it, really. There’s no one else. There’s not even a sneaky contender I can pretend can jump up. At this point, I wouldn’t know who to guess that’s left. Kiki Layne? I got nothing.

My guess is, you’re gonna get the SAG five, with either Aparicio or Kidman taking that spot, if anyone. My guess is you get the SAG five.

And then, now that Close has won, I can’t rightly make a guess on this until I see some other stuff come in. But I figure it’ll be Colman at the moment. Gaga doesn’t seem like she’ll have more support than Olivia Colman at the BAFTAs. The only real question is if Close can make this a real race or the Globes thing was just them picking someone who wasn’t Colman in the other category. I’m thinking Colman should probably take this easily, but let’s wait and see what develops.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Sam Rockwell gets on. Interesting. That will make the final category guess more complicated. The precursors are pretty much these five plus Sam Elliott. And I have a hard time thinking Bradley Cooper isn’t taking him along with him on the final category. That was like Jonah Hill and Wolf of Wall Street. I just felt like Leo was gonna take him with him (same for Tom Hardy and The Revenant). I feel like Cooper is gonna take Elliott with him. That said, Rockwell’s got some precursors. So you have six people, five spots.

And no, I don’t see Michael B. Jordan having a serious shot at Supporting Actor. But because the category is so weak, he’s a seventh choice. I don’t really see anyone else. Supporting Actor usually isn’t conducive to someone coming out of nowhere, a la Laura Dern. And if it is, usually they’re coming along with someone in another category. Elliott and Rockwell are those people this year. Everyone else is paired off who can possibly make it on. This is a pretty cut and dry category this year (as it is most years, it feels like).

As for a winner, it’s early. They could just give it to Grant because of the UK factor, but personally it’s looking like Ali wins his second all around. We’ll see if they go off the board and go Chalamet or something. That’s always a possibility. I’m thinking it’s Ali in unison with the rest, or they go wildly off the board and there’s little rhyme or reason to it.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

No Regina King is the big takeaway. Still don’t think that hurts her, since the two alternatives were Brits, but it’s something to note.

This will be an interesting category to figure out for guessing, since Regina King seems, at the moment, like your de facto winner. Looks like they’re gonna have to split the Stone/Weisz vote. Unless Foy comes out of nowhere? This should be interesting.

That said… Stone, Weisz, King, Adams seems like for sure your category. Robbie has now BAFTA and SAG, but I don’t feel like she’s locked just yet. I’ve seen a lot of people with that combination not make it on. Especially since the film has completely fallen flat. That’s almost like, voting party lines if she gets on. But hey, you never know.

But now the question is, who is that fifth spot? Supporting Actress is always where the intrigue lies.

Robbie has SAG and BAFTA. Foy has Globes, BFCA and BAFTA. That, to me, is the more intriguing set of nominations. Actually, come to think of it… Regina King missed SAG too. Oh boy, wouldn’t that be interesting, if they somehow left her off. What would they do then?

Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place would surprise us all, so I’m not going near that just yet. Nicole Kidman only has BFCA for Boy Erased. That’s… pretty much it.

I’m looking at Stone, Weisz, Adams, King, and then either Foy or Robbie for that last spot. I feel like SAG has reached saturation on members, which is why you get that Margot Robbie nomination over the Regina King nomination. Sometimes it does feel like a bit of a popularity contest in the nominations stage. So I’m leaning toward Foy, even though all my Oscar guessing history is telling me, “What are you, nuts? Robbie has SAG and BAFTA!” So we’ll see where that shakes out.

I’m gonna try to figure out if there’s any Laura Dern this year, who can come out of nowhere. But the thing about a Laura Dern is — they come out of nowhere. Linda Cardellini comes to mind, if they really like Green Book that much. I remember Jacki Weaver getting on because they loved Silver Linings Playbook, but she was also someone who had a previous nomination, so I don’t know how much that factored into it. I think this one might just be boring and straightforward. Because even if it’s Kidman or Blunt, it’s still kinda straightforward, because the precursors were there, however slight.

Best Original Screenplay

Cold War

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

Vice

Cold War gets Screenplay too. That’s an interesting one. Shouldn’t factor into the Oscar race, but it does make that a solid contender for Foreign Language Film and/or Cinematography. Both of which will be against Roma. That’s something to deal with later, but remember the whole Pan’s Labyrinth of it all, where it was nominated for/won other Oscars but lost Foreign Language Film. I’m not ruling that one out this year.

Other than that — you know The Favourite and Roma will be nominated. Vice also makes a lot of sense too. Roma hit most of the precursors, so that’s likely #4. Really it comes down to that fifth spot.

First Reformed got nothing but a BFCA nomination. Eighth Grade has both that and WGA. Quiet Place has both of those too.

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

These five plus Black Panther are the main contenders based on the precursors. All of them got BFCA, and First Man was left off WGA for Black Panther.

If I had to guess, the category will be the WGA list, because I feel like they won’t feel an urgency to nominate First Man. I think that’s how that goes. But still, 5 from 6, that should be relatively easy to navigate.

For this category specifically, do they give it to Barry Jenkins again? BlacKkKlansman? Is this where Star Is Born goes? Or First Man? No idea. My guess is Barry Jenkins, but I truly couldn’t figure out who could win this. For BAFTA, anyway. If this were an Oscar category, it would be easier to gauge. BAFTA, no clue.

Best Editing

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

Vice

There’s your Bohemian Rhapsody love. It’s not sweeping, but it’s targeted love. The Editing nomination convinces me it’ll get on the Best Picture list, if I wasn’t convinced already.

Otherwise… Vice makes sense. BAFTA is more about actual editing than, “What’s the Best Picture list gonna look like?” Not that that’s how the Oscars voting goes, but it’s how the list almost always ends up.

But yeah, this makes sense. Your Oscar list will likely be Favourite, First Man, Roma, Star Is Born, Green Book. Unless one of them isn’t really that big a contender. I’d suspect that’ll be your list. Vice could sneak on, Bohemian Rhapsody could sneak on. Hell, a lot of things could sneak on. It’s Editing.

The key is the Best Picture films, then the extra “editing” movie, which this year is First Man. Other years, there are multiple. Like last year. Blade Runner, Baby Driver. This year, it’s First Man. And then your Best Picture films that could make it on: Favourite, Roma, Star Is Born, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody. Your Best Editing category should be some combination of those movies. Best Editing never gets that complicated. All the thinking you need to do is figuring out which ones are the major contenders for a win, and if there’s anything they might love enough to let it sneak on, a la Dallas Buyers Club.

Since BAFTA does care about the Editing, I suspect First Man wins this. Bohemian Rhapsody would be my second guess, if not First Man. Vice would be a third. Don’t think Roma or Favourite wins this, but what do I know.

Best Cinematography

Bohemian Rhapsody

Cold War

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

And there’s Bohemian Rhapsody #2. Oh yeah, this is on your Best Picture list. I mean, the Globes win spelled that out, but this put punctuation on it.

Cold War, Roma… makes sense. The Favourite and First Man both got ASC nominations.

Swap Bohemian Rhapsody for A Star Is Born, and that’s your ASC category. I suspect those five are your big favorites for the final category anyway.

Beale Street has a BFCA nomination and could theoretically make it on, but it feels like a tall order next to everything else. I’d love to see it, but it seems unlikely on paper alone. Definitely your sixth choice, seems like. Black Panther also theoretically could be a contender, but I’m not feeling it at the moment.

I think you have your six: Cold War, Roma, Favourite, First Man and then either Star Is Born or Beale Street. That should be your category. The others are there, but I’m not sure they make a whole lot of noise in the end. I think those five are pretty formidable. (And if they put Beale Street on over Star Is Born, that might be the ideal category for me.)

Roma wins this though, right? I mean, could go Cold War, but Roma seems like a favorite here, doesn’t it?

Best Music

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

A Star Is Born

Well, all of these but Star Is Born are on the Oscar shortlist. And BAFTA has no Song category, so it’s all kind of merged into one. I wonder if that means it takes it on that alone. Otherwise, I don’t think any score is more deserving than Beale Street. But this is such a tough category to figure out. So we’ll just wait and see how it goes.

Otherwise… not a bad set of choices. I have to listen to all the scores to really get a sense. But just looking at the shortlist, I’d say the major real contenders are: Buster Scruggs, Black Panther (I guess?), BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Beale Street, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins, Quiet Place and Ready Player One. So that’s 9 of 15. Not so bad. I could figure a general category from that. Namely: First Man, Beale Street, Poppins, Isle of Dogs, and then one more. That is likely how this will go. Quiet Place feels right. Beltrami’s the kind of guy who gets that last spot.

Everything else — Annihilation is by composers who haven’t been nominated. Avengers would come out of nowhere, especially with Black Panther already in contention, Crazy Rich Asians would maybe be at the bottom of my contenders list, but not something I’d think would really happen, Death of Stalin… maybe? But doubtful. Fantastic Beasts, I guess, but the last one wasn’t nominated. And then Vice… Britell should already have a film on the list. So yeah, I think your last spot is either BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Buster Scruggs or A Quiet Place.

Also of note, the BFCA list had the same as BAFTA but with Black Panther instead of Star Is Born (and an ineligible Green Book), and the Globes had A Quiet Place and Black Panther instead of Beale Street and Star Is Born. So really, those are your main contenders. Quiet Place, Black Panther are the first two, and then maybe BlacKkKlansman sneaks on, and I’m not ruling out Buster Scruggs, though Carter Burwell has never been nominated for a Coen brothers score.

Best Production Design

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Yup, these are all solid contenders. Looking at what ADG did… Buster Scruggs, can never rule out a western, is in contention. ADG nominated Bohemian Rhapsody, and it could get on, so I have to mention it. And Black Panther and Ready Player One. Those are the four.

BFCA had this list, but Fantastic Beasts off in favor of Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. That last one is contemporary and that never gets nominated at the Oscars.

So — Favourite, First Man, Poppins, Roma, one more. And the last one will either be Black Panther, Ready Player One, Buster Scruggs or Bohemian Rhapsody. Seems pretty straightforward.

What wins this… no idea. Let’s say The Favourite. It’s early, and it’s BAFTA. That makes a lot of sense.

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

CDG announces tomorrow, so mostly we’re just going on, “Yeah, that makes sense.” And The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots are all but nominated for the Oscar now. Poppins also makes a lot of sense. Costume Design likes a western, so Scruggs makes sense. And Bohemian Rhapsody — sure. Not sure that makes the final category, but it fits.

Thinking aloud as to what else could make it — Green Book, Beale Street, BlacKkKlansman and First Man are all period. Each have their drawbacks. Black Panther should get a CDG nomination and be firmly in contention. Eternity’s Gate seems unlikely, but I guess could maybe factor in if it gets CDG. Roma has to be considered, though I’m not sure if that’s sexy enough for them. Suspiria would be cool, but that’s clearly out of the question. Sisters Brothers seems to have lost the western spot to Buster Scruggs, which has more varied costumes. Outlaw King seems like it should factor in.

Honestly, I think you have Scots, Poppins, Favourite, Scruggs and Black Panther. Rhapsody is probably sixth, and then those other period pieces all hovering around after that. Everything changes once CDG announces, but that’s my feeling at this moment.

The Favourite or Mary Queen of Scots should win this in a cake walk.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary, Queen of Scots

Stan & Ollie

Vice

All of these but The Favourite are on the Oscar shortlist.

That’s one where, you have the shortlist and you pick three. So this doesn’t really help us all that much, since we pretty much knew what the contenders are.

I suspect, from the shortlist, Vice makes it, Black Panther probably makes it, and then either Bohemian Rhapsody, Stan & Ollie (unlikeliest of all) or Mary Queen of Scots is the final spot. Suspiria seems completely ignored, even though I’m all for it being nominated (Tilda, man. Times TWO!), and no one knows what Border is.

Vice should take it down either way. Because they love a lead actor transformation, especially when that actor is probably gonna win at the same time. (See: The Iron Lady, Darkest Hour.)

I’ll have to look at the different teams to see what else they’ve done. Because sometimes that can alert you to who will get on. But outside of that, this category is always pretty manageable and usually only requires a shortlist to guess.

Best Sound

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

A Quiet Place

A Star Is Born

BAFTA only has one Sound category, but if memory serves, it’s usually solid. Or maybe that’s Visual Effects. Either way, only one Sound guild has announced so far, so we’re only flying at half mast on all our information.

CAS did nominate most of these, albeit with Black Panther over Fallout. Otherwise, the other four are exactly the same. So once I see what MPSE does, I’ll have a better sense of where this is going. But with Sound, you’re almost reliant on the guilds and BAFTA, so most of the guess lists will be comprised of a lot of these entries.

First Man feels like it should take this, but this is not the time of the year where I’ve done all my research. So maybe they’ll go with one of the musicals.

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

First Man

Ready Player One

Visual Effects I think is the one that BAFTA always does well on. But I think it’s with a winner. I feel like their categories tend to be somewhat different a lot of the years.

But, I mean, four of these are shortlisted, so I’m not overly surprised by this. Grindelwald is the only one not on the shortlist, and it’s a British film, so of course they nominated it.

I suspect Marvel will get two movies on the Oscar list, and those two are the most likely ones. First Man should be nominated, but in an era where it’s Best CGI, I’m not sure if it’ll make the list. Ready Player One is Spielberg, so you can never rule it out, but it does feel like a legitimate contender. Effects are the majority of that movie. To the point where when you finally meet your main character in person, it’s jarring.

So assuming those four probably make it, you’re left with Marwen (unlikely, but the effects were nice), Solo (Star Wars is always a possibility), Mary Poppins (solidly in contention but not assured a spot), Jurassic World (solidly in contention because dinosaurs), Christopher Robin (unlikely, but just the right kind of unlikely that none of us will guess it and it’ll be nominated) and Ant-Man (Marvel’s not getting three. Two feels like a stretch, but three is insane).

Not so bad. Can make your head explode, trying to get one spot out of some of them, but it’s not the craziest thing you have to do when guessing the Oscars.

P.S. BFCA had the four shortlisted movies on this list and Mary Poppins. So I guess we wait and see what VES does next week and then go from there.

Best Animated Film

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

These are the three I’ve been seeing all the way through the season. So that gives you 3/5 of the Oscar category right there.

Now all you gotta do is pick from Ralph Breaks the Internet, The Grinch, Early Man, Mirai and Smallfoot as to what the other two are gonna be. Unless you think they’re going way off the board, which this branch used to do, until they changed voting methods last year and potentially opened it up to mainstream city. This is the year where we find out where the category’s at for the future.

That said, the path is set for Spider-Verse to walk away with this whole thing. I’m not assuming it, because Disney/Pixar has lost this category a total of five times. Once to DreamWorks (Shrek), once to Ghibli (Spirited Away), once to Aardman (Wallace and Gromit), once to Warner Bros. (Happy Feet) and once to Nickelodeon (Rango). By the way, the films they had in contention against those other ones: Monsters Inc, Lilo & Stitch and Treasure Planet, Cars, and in the last two, none. So, Disney/Pixar lost in the first two years of the category, and then only once more ever when they were nominated. And that was Cars.

Just something to keep in mind come Oscar time.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum

Cold War

Dogman

Roma

Shoplifters

Four of these five certainly look like your final category. You have to assume Cold War/Roma/Shoplifters. Capernaum seems likely, but you can never fully trust Foreign Language to do what you expect. After that, you have Birds of Passage, The Guilty, Burning, Ayka and Never Look Away.

My gut tells me they leave Burning off. Never Look Away doesn’t feel like it makes it either. Embrace of the Serpent got nominated, so maybe Birds of Passage gets on? Ayka, if it gets on, it’s because they forced it on the way they forced that Timbuktu movie, or those first-time nominees on. My gut says it’s probably The Guilty, especially since I thought I saw that Jake Gyllenhaal was gonna do an American remake of it. They like movies that are conducive to American remakes.

As for a winner in this — Roma is the default, and then if it doesn’t win, Cold War is gonna win. I don’t know how they’re gonna split that one, Roma in Best Picture vs. here. Not sure we’ll ever know until it happens.

Best Documentary

Free Solo

McQueen

RBG

They Shall Not Grow Old

Three Identical Strangers

No Won’t You Be My Neighbor, but that’s not overly surprising. They put on They Shall Not Grow Old, which is sweet. That one is awesome. That and McQueen are not on the Oscar shortlist. The other three are, and the other three have made literally every list I’ve seen that has to do with documentaries. At this point, even though the Documentary branch is certifiably insane and picks crazy things, you almost have to guess those three and Won’t You Be My Neighbor as four of your five. And then after that it’s process of elimination as to what the last one could be. Which we’ll figure out in two weeks, I guess. I still have to try to scrounge some of them up to try to watch beforehand so I can have a more definitive feeling about the whole thing.

Best British Short

73 Cows

Bachelow

The Blue Door

The Field

Wale

Sure.

Best British Animated Short

I’m Ok

Marfa

Roughhouse

Yup.

Best Debut Film

Apostasy

Beast

A Cambodian Spring

Pili

Ray & Liz

K.

Rising Star Award

Barry Keoghan

Cynthia Erivo

Jessie Buckley

Lakeith Stanfield

Letitia Wright

Aren’t you a year late on Barry Keoghan and two years late on Lakeith Stanfield?

This is fan voted, so it doesn’t really matter to me how this turns out, but it sure does seem like when the magazines and websites talk about “stars to look out for” and they’re people who broke two years earlier. Like if, in 2018, they said, “Big up and coming star, Alicia Vikander!” This list isn’t quite “for people living under a rock,” but it’s not great. That said, like all of these people.

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So those are the BAFTAs. Spent more time than I thought writing those up, partially because of the work day and partially because I have reached that point of wanting people to know what the hell they’re doing on these Oscar things. No one listens anyway, but at least this is there for the few people who do care.

I’ll put up the Underrated list at some point this afternoon/evening once I finish typing it up. It’s definitely not as interesting as the Overrated list typically is, so I don’t feel so bad about making you wait.

Also, I don’t work for you. You’ll read it when it’s damn well ready.

Motherfucker.

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Here we go, the one guild you’ve all been waiting for — Makeup & Hairstyling!

We have a shortlist for this, so really all these nominations are going to be viewed through the lens of that. But hey, a few years ago we didn’t have this guild to help us out, so really anything helps.

Just as a reminder, your shortlist is: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan & Ollie, Suspiria and Vice. BAFTA nominated Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan & Ollie and Vice and BFCA nominated Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots, Suspiria and Vice. All worth knowing if you’re trying to guess which three will end up being nominated. This is the final piece of that puzzle, because it’s all the help we’re gonna get.

Here are your 2018 Makeup & Hairstylist Guild nominees:

Best Period and/or Character Makeup

Bohemian Rhapsody

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

Stan & Ollie

Vice

So four of your shortlist. This does remind me how weird it looks that Mary Poppins is not nominated there. But also kind of makes sense too.

Best Period and/or Character Hairstyling

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

There’s Black Panther, so that’s 4/7 represented so far, with Bohemian and Mary represented twice now. Though both are the ones of the previous list that are more about the hairstyling than the makeup, so that does make sense.

Best Special Effects Makeup

Aquaman

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

Stan & Ollie

Vice

There’s Black Panther, Stan & Ollie and Vice again.

Best Contemporary Makeup

Beautiful Boy

Boy Erased

Crazy Rich Asians

A Star Is Born

Welcome to Marwen

Widows

Unhelpful. But sure.

Best Contemporary Hairstyling

Crazy Rich Asians

Nappily Ever After

A Star Is Born

Vox Lux

Widows

K.

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Okay, so five of the shortlist are represented in these nominations. Nothing for Border, and nothing for Suspiria. The guy who did the prosthetics for Suspiria also did them for Stan & Ollie, so I guess that’s of note. He’s also won two Oscars (The Iron Lady and Grand Budapest). The Border people have never been nominated. I find that’s important, because remember the double nomination for the Man Called Ove and 100-Year-Old Man team.

This generally doesn’t help all that much, because a lot of these feel like they could get on, and it’s just gonna come down to which ones you feel are gonna get the most votes.

They love a good actor transformation, so expect Vice to get on regardless. Especially with Bale in the Best Actor mix. So now it’s 6 shortlisted films and two spots.

Personally, I wouldn’t guess Border and would just prefer to be wrong, so that’s one off for me.

Looking at previous categories:

2017: Darkest Hour, Victoria & Abdul, Wonder
2016: A Man Called Ove, Suicide Squad, Star Trek Beyond
2015: The 100-Year-Old Man, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
2014: Foxcatcher, Grand Budapest Hotel, Guardians of the Galaxy

Big awards movies tend to do well here, as do big budget stuff.

I would expect Black Panther to be the second nominee based off of the rest of that list. So that’s 2/3, one spot left, and four movies to choose from.

I feel like Stan & Ollie is a red herring, the way Hitchcock was, the way a lot of these movies are. I feel like I’m gonna end up leaving that off and seeing if they go there. My gut/history with this category tells me its the kind of thing that seems obvious that they don’t ever actually nominate. I feel like they want more to the job than just that. Which also might be why I think Suspiria ends up getting left off too.

I think the answer is gonna be one of the hairstyling heavy films. Mary Queen of Scots feels like it’s the choice over Bohemian Rhapsody, but it’s the less adored of the two films. Looking at those other categories, they generally don’t just vote for something they liked a lot without a palpable reason for it being there.

My gut tells me your final category is likely Black Panther, Mary Queen of Scots and Vice. The alternate would be Stan & Ollie or Suspiria. I don’t think Bohemian Rhapsody makes it. I don’t think Border makes it. That’s my gut feeling at this moment in time.

Also notice how I didn’t even bother going into what may or may not win at these guilds, because ultimately it doesn’t matter. The Oscars don’t play by the rules in this category at all.

It’ll be slightly different when we do the Costume Designers Guild next. They at least kind of play by the rules there.

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The Costume Designers Guild also announced their nominations today. They separate their awards the way the Art Directors Guild does. Three categories: Period, Fantasy, Contemporary. And, as with ADG, pretty much you only have to focus on Period or Fantasy, because contemporary costumes never get nominated. You know this category — the frillier, the better.

This year should be pretty easy for us, since we have two period royalty pieces, a big Marvel movie with lots of ethnic costumes, and Mary Poppins. The category basically fills itself out.

Here are your Costume Designers Guild nominees for 2018:

Excellence in Period Film

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

The Academy will never be able to pass up Mary Queen of Scots and The Favourite in the final category. And Mary Poppins is basically a shoo-in, even if it can’t get any of the big nominations they’re trying to land with it. That’s 3/5 right there, and you already know what’s coming in the next category.

Really this one’s gonna be about figuring out that final nominee, and it just might end up being Bohemian Rhapsody.

So really, this one feels pretty straightforward.

Excellence in Sci Fi/Fantasy Film

Aquaman

Avengers Infinity War

Black Panther

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

A Wrinkle in Time

You can pretty much boil this one to Black Panther vs. the field. I mean, sure, anyone can win at the guild, but when it comes to the Oscars, only one of these has a shot in the actual category.

Black Panther is the only contender worth noting from this field.

Excellence in Contemporary Film

Crazy Rich Asians

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Ocean’s 8

A Star Is Born

Widows

Only three of these can win. Doesn’t really matter which it is, because any one of these getting nominated at the Oscars would be nigh unprecedented. Nothing wrong with that, but for those trying to guess stuff, not exactly the route you want to assume will come through.

– – – – –

So there you have it.

Looking at the other precursors, BFCA has the exact same category as I was suggesting might be the final one: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Mary Poppins and Mary Queen of Scots. BAFTA has the final four, no Black Panther and instead The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. Which you also can’t rule out, since they do like a western in this category.

I’m not really sure who else is around contention except maybe BlacKkKlansman, possibly First Man or Green Book (but those would come a bit out of nowhere, wouldn’t they?). Otherwise… I’m not sure what else feels like it could come almost out of nowhere. I think I’m leaning toward that BFCA category. But we’ll see what I can come up with for alternatives in the next ten days.

The Underseen list is coming later today, whenever I can finish it.

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The Critics Choice Awards were tonight.

They don’t mean a whole lot to me now, since I’m in the middle of figuring out what’ll get nominated for the Oscars. Sure, this helps a little bit, but winners really only matter after we get nominees. So some of it will factor into my decision-making, but I suspect a lot of this will confirm what I already suspected to be the prevailing winds.

Generally what I’m looking for here is to see if some things win that I think may potentially be left off the Oscar list, which could help shore up a nomination (at least spiritually). Otherwise, I expect this all to be confirmation bias.

Here are your Critics Choice winners:

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

First Man

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Winner: Roma

That’s its first major win of the season. Arguably the second, since the Globes pretty much spelled out that they would have voted for it if they had the chance. It won everything it needed to there for me to know that it would have won Picture had they been able to put it there.

This made sense all along as a winner, since A Star Is Born never struck me as the kind of movie that would go all the way, and Green Book also never felt like it would actually win. Unless The Favourite is gonna make a play for it, this was the movie all along that was gonna be the top contender to win the whole thing.

Apparently they don’t care about that whole Netflix thing anymore, huh?

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, First Man

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Even if Roma doesn’t win the whole thing, Cuaron should take this down pretty easily. I don’t know what the final category is gonna be, but Cooper won’t win, and Peter Farrelly won’t win. Cuaron’s the strongest effort there, and that’s without knowing who the other two nominees are gonna be (probably Spike Lee and one of the other three in this category, Chazelle, Lanthimos or McKay). He should cruise to a second win pretty easily.

And also, just so we’re clear, him winning the Oscar would mean that between 2013 and 2018, Cuaron will have two Best Director wins, Inarritu will have two Best Director wins and Guillermo del Toro will have one Best Director win. With Damien Chazelle the only other person in between to have won. That’s pretty insane. But also… pretty deserved, all those wins. Still, insane that they’re all best friends. This must be what it felt like to be Spielberg and Lucas in the 80s, where every giant hit was one or the other.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Winner: Christian Bale, Vice

Well, that’s the start of him winning the whole thing. He needed to start strong, and now he’s got two wins.

Cooper will go home empty-handed at the Oscars, most likely, with the acclaim being the thing he gets out of it. I feel like this movie assured him a win somewhere a bit down the road. Either in acting or a Warren Beatty-type win. It won’t be this year. That movie is the kind that is destined to get all the nominations and none of the wins. That’s what happens when you make something that’s a fourth remake.

Malek needs another big win to parlay that Globes win into anything serious. I’d look to BAFTA on that. Mortensen should have another “nomination but no win” season like he’s had in his past two nominations. I don’t see how he takes down either of the two remaining precursors.

We don’t know who that fifth spot is gonna be, but they won’t contend for the win. It’s pretty much Bale all the way through, provided he wins either SAG or BAFTA. I don’t even think he needs both at this point. It should be his to lose.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Glenn Close, The Wife

Toni Colette, Hereditary

Olivia Colman, The Favorite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Winner: TIE: Glenn Close, The Wife and Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Oh, so we’re doing 1968 all over again, are we? The Katharine Hepburn/Barbra Streisand year?

This will make things slightly more interesting. If only they put Gaga in Musical/Comedy, then we’d legitimately have them having two wins apiece going into the big two. Colman’s still got that Globe win, and right now it’s kind of a three-person race.

SAG and BAFTA should tell the tale on this one, though there’s a chance we’re gonna have those go ways we don’t expect. Picture this — Colman wins BAFTA and Gaga wins SAG… what do you do? That’s a legitimate possibility, owing to the large voting body of SAG. Do you discount it? Or is SAG gospel? Then you’ll have Close with the Globe and BAFTA, Colman with BAFTA and the Globe, and Gaga with SAG and BFCA. A lot of decisions will have to be made, depending on how things go. This might be the most interesting Best Actress race in years. Or one of the two will win the next two and it’ll be moot. This will either be the most interesting this  category gets, or we’re all gonna have theories as to what precursor is more important than the others.

But we’re also not up to that yet. These people still need to be nominated. We are basically all locked up in this category anyway. The only real question is who that fifth spot is gonna be, seemingly between Aparicio and Blunt. But still, there’s a chance, theoretically, that someone gets left off. And then it’s just chaos.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Winner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

That’s two wins for him, and he should cruise to an easy Oscar win.

Right now, the only intrigue for me in the category is whether or not they nominate Sam Elliott. It’s him vs. Rockwell for that fifth spot, and I don’t know which way they’re gonna go. I hope it’s Elliott, but it’s tight. Or at least appears to be tight.

Either way, who is there that takes down Mahershala at this point? You’re gonna need the SAG win, and it can pretty much only be Elliott who does it, right? On that Alan Arkin thing? Where Eddie Murphy swept everything else, lost BAFTA to Arkin and Arkin took down the Oscar. Doubt anyone beats Ali, but it’s possible.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel, Weisz, The Favourite

Winner: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

That’s two wins for her.

Imagine if they leave her off the nominations list. She wasn’t nominated for SAG, but I’m pretty sure it’s because SAG is oversaturated and it evens out to a popularity contest. Still, they could fuck this up and back themselves into a corner

Once she gets nominated though, she should take the whole thing down pretty easily, considering her major competition is a vote split between Weisz and Stone. Adams won’t do any damage, and we don’t even know who the fifth spot is. Conventional wisdom says it’s either Claire Foy or Margot Robbie. Neither of them seems like a contender for the win.

Assuming King makes it on (and I see no reason why she won’t), she should win pretty handily.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Ed Oxenbould, Wildlife

Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place

Amandla Stenberg, The Hate U Give

Sunny Suljic, Mid90s

Winner: Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Of course she won. Good category, she’s a fine winner. I think McKenzie gave a better overall performance (as did Stenberg), but Fisher is a fine winner. Good for her.

Best Acting Ensemble

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Vice

Widows

Winner: The Favourite

I mean, of course. Three acting nominations. What else was there to choose?

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

A Quiet Place

Roma

Vice

Winner: First Reformed

Now THIS is the most intriguing decision of the night.

Because First Reformed is not guaranteed a Screenplay nomination. This is its only precursor nomination. However… BFCA has handed out screenplay awards since 1995. Not once has a BFCA screenplay winner (in either category) not been nominated for the Oscar.

This is them calling their shot. Which is interesting, because they could have gone with The Favourite or Green Book. But they didn’t.

What makes this so interesting as a winner is that it wasn’t nominated for the WGA award. And it was eligible. It just didn’t get it. So now, we’ve legitimately got to call it a contender for that fifth spot. It always kind of was, but I’d have leaned more toward two of the other scripts on this list — Eighth Grade or A Quiet Place. There’s no guarantee it gets on, but now you’ve got to consider them all. And your entire list of possible nominees is here. So your category is staring you in the face. You just need to figure out which two they’ll leave off. This win just made it a little bit harder.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Winner: If Beale Street Could Talk

Fuck yeah.

Maybe this means he can win.

At this point, your category is up here. Five of these six will be your nominees. The question is whether or not that fifth spot is Black Panther or First Man, most likely.

Still, whatever the category, I think Jenkins might take it down, which would be very deserving, and might make up for a possible Best Picture snub his film is in line to possibly get.

Best Editing

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Widows

Winner: First Man

It’s the best edited film on this list. Makes total sense to me.

I love that they included Widows. But First Man is the one that should have win. I assume it will be the only non-Best Picture film on the Editing list, unless something gets on Editing and gets left off Picture (like, say, Vice).

I’m glad they focused on editing here and not anything else. Because at the Oscars, Green Book will likely (assuming they liked it enough to seriously contend for Picture) end up with an Editing nomination.

Still, First Man seems like the odds-on favorite no matter what the rest of the category looks like.

Best Cinematography

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star Is Born

Winner: Roma

Your category is likely in here, sans Black Panther. Oh, right, and Cold War. That’s also in there. So Cold War in place of one of those other ones. Probably Beale Street, knowing them.

But Roma is almost an automatic winner, isn’t it? Which would mean Cuaron could end up a triple winner in three separate categories come Oscar night.

Best Song

“All the Stars,” from Black Panther

“Girl in the Movies,” from Dumplin’

“I’ll Fight,” from RBG

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” from Mary Poppins Returns

“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

“Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” from Mary Poppins Returns

Winner: “Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

Of course. We’re already 1/1 on Oscar night because of this category.

Best Score

Black Panther

First Man

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

Winner: First Man

That’s two wins for First Man. If it takes down the BAFTA too, that’s a mighty hard thing to overcome for the rest of the nominees. Three precursor wins is nearly automatic at the Oscars.

This win also basically assures it will be nominated. Your entire category is probably in here, too. Green Book is ineligible, but those other five sure look like your final Oscar category.

Best Production Design

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Winner: Black Panther

Oh, so this is where they start giving it wins to show support.

Isn’t this a win for Best Visual Effects, in essence? What sets did they really build? The casino? The street scene that we got like, a minute of before they cut away from it? Oakland?

I wanna see what the final category ends up being. But Production Design? Really? It’s fucking Marvel.

Best Costume Design

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

Winner: Black Panther

And they gifted it two wins.

Objectively it’s a third choice at best in this category. Take your pick for the two above it. I’d put it fourth, myself.

Doubt it can win this at the Oscars, but everyone seems nuts this year, I don’t fucking know what’s gonna happen.

This also might be your Oscar category, by the way.

Best Hair and Makeup

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary, Queen of Scots

Suspiria

Vice

Winner: Vice

Yeah. They love actor transformations, and if Bale is winning, this will be like Darkest Hour last year. The makeup team will come too.

I can’t even wonder what this means for the category, because five of your seven shortlisted movies are on here. They only left off Stan & Ollie and Border. So this doesn’t help us at all. Because we know what’s gonna win. What we need is to figure out the two that are gonna lose to it.

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Ready Player One

Winner: Black Panther

Of course they did.

Are they so blind for this movie that they’re gonna give it Visual Effects despite the fact that the effects looked bad? It’s one of the weaker looking Marvel movies. As much as I don’t like to give them credit for their CGI fests, Avengers objectively looked like a better movie than Black Panther did. And for that matter, so did Ready Player One. I know that’s not Marvel, but it did.

Really, we should give this to First Man, because those were actual effects. I’m pretty sure not all of that was done on a computer, and it actually felt real. Maybe we should start going back to that a little bit.

I also am very happy they nominated Fallout, which also felt like it contained actual effects. I get why it won’t ever get nominated, but I’m glad they included it.

That said, please don’t let Black Panther win this Oscar category. We’ve already made it Best CGI, let’s not turn it into a popularity contest too.

Best Animated Feature

The Grinch

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

The way this is going, this might actually take down the Oscar category.

I’m not calling this a lock, because I’ve seen what happens in this category. We get to final voting, and the old, white majority who hasn’t seen any of these movies looks at their ballot, sees the Pixar movie, and votes for that because it’s Pixar. Fucking Brave won this category. So while Spider-Verse seems like the odds-on favorite… I can’t rule out Pixar, because people just blindly vote in this category.

The only real bit of intrigue for this category is what the nominees list is gonna be. Are they gonna seem progressive and go back to the cool, artistic choices, or has the genie been pulled from the bottle and there’s no chance of that happening anymore? Because this new voting system has seemingly doomed us to populist choices forever. Last year, Ferdinand and The Boss Baby were nominated. And while I love The Boss Baby, it’s not the kind of choice we’d have seen without the change in voting.

Do we really need an Oscar category with The Grinch? Do people really care? Was this category really that big of a ratings draw that we needed to do it like that?

Best Action Movie

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

Deadpool 2

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Ready Player One

Widows

Winner: Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Good for them. The movie with real stunts and action in it.

Why do I feel like they only let this happen because of a technicality. “Actually, Black Panther is a drama with Shakespearean elements that just happens to have action sequences in it.”

Whatever. Glad this won.

Best Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians

Deadpool 2

The Death of Stalin

The Favourite

Game Night

Sorry the Bother You

Winner: Crazy Rich Asians

Of course. Way to look progressive, guys. I’m sure your backs aren’t lonely from all those pats you’re giving yourselves.

Best Actor in a Comedy

Christian Bale, Vice

Jason Bateman, Game Night

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2

Lakeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You

Winner: Christian Bale, Vice

This category is so unfair to the people not nominated in the top category.

They should have a rule where, if you’re nominated in the top acting categories, you are removed from voting here and they let the next person up get nominated. Take Bale and Mortensen off this and let some other people get on. Then you get a real category, as opposed to an excuse to give someone another award.

Best Actress in a Comedy

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Rachel McAdams, Game Night

Charlize Theron, Tully

Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Winner: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

So they managed to reward all three. How diplomatic.

Best Sci-Fi or Horror Movie

Annihilation

Halloween

Hereditary

A Quiet Place

Suspiria

Winner: A Quiet Place

Of course it did.

Best Foreign Language Film

Burning

Capernaum

Cold War

Roma

Shoplifters

Winner: Roma

What’s the probability of that happening? If people vote Roma Best Picture, will they not vote it for Foreign Language Film? Can it win both? Will it? Will they leave it off, assuming it gets on Best Picture? This is mighty interesting.

We’ve had nine foreign language films nominated for Best Picture so far. Eight of them came in an era where there was a Foreign Language category. Z in 1969 won Foreign Language Film that year. The Emigrants was nominated for Foreign Language Film in 1971 and then was nominated for Best Picture in 1972. Cries and Whispers was nominated for Picture but not Foreign Language Film. Same for Il Postino. Life Is Beautiful won Foreign Language Film, as did Crouching Tiger. Technically Letters from Iwo Jima is an American film set in a foreign language. So that barely counts. And Amour won Foreign Language Film in its year. None of those, save maybe Crouching Tiger, stood a legitimate chance to take down Best Picture. Roma’s the first one that could legitimately win both. Huh. There might be lots of history on the line with this one.

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So that’s BFCA.

We’re finishing the Release Calendar this week. Then this weekend we start getting into Oscar nominations. They’re announced next Tuesday morning. Actual voting closes tomorrow at 5, so get ready for all those thinkpiece articles about people scrambling to get votes at the last minute and how it means something. Man, do I not miss any of that shit.

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The Visual Effects Society announced their nominees two days ago and I was too distracted to notice (you’ve see why today and will again tomorrow, and especially on Monday). But here we are.

I’ll have minimal amounts of things to say about each category, because I’ve already moved on to Oscar prognosticating. But still, it’s worth looking at. As a refresher, here’s your shortlist for the category:

Ant-Man and the Wasp
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Christopher Robin
First Man
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Welcome to Marwen

And here are your VES nominees:

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Welcome to Marwen

No Black Panther. That’s telling. Even the guild doesn’t necessarily think the effects were overly special.

The Christopher Robin inclusion and the Marwen inclusion really open up the possibilities of the category.

Star Wars has pretty much always been nominated, so that’s a big step in that direction. Infinity War and Ready Player One always seemed like major contenders for the actual category

Really this is gonna just make things a little more interesting because the two no one would have expected are two that theoretically could make it on. Fun times.

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature

12 Strong
Bird Box
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Outlaw King

First Man is the only one that matters, and at this point it looks like a solid contender for the final category.

Notice no Mary Poppins anywhere. That’s interesting as hell.

Outstanding Visual Effects in an Animated Feature

The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Yeah, that all makes sense.

Incredibles or Spider-Verse will win. Nothing new.

Outstanding Animated Character in a Photoreal Feature

Avengers: Infinity War (Thanos)
Christopher Robin (Tigger)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Indoraptor)
Ready Player One (Art3mis)

Art3mis looks great. Thanos is a good choice too.

Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature

The Grinch (The Grinch)
Incredibles 2 (Helen Parr)
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Ralphzilla)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Miles Morales)

Cool. Guessing Morales wins, but Elsatigirl makes sense for them too.

Outstanding Created Environment in a Photoreal Feature

Ant-Man and the Wasp (Journey to the Quantum Realm)
Aquaman (Atlantis)
Ready Player One (The Shining, Overlook Hotel)
Solo: A Star Wars Story (Vandor Planet)

Quantum Realm was nice. Overlook Hotel was most people’s favorite part of that movie. No issues here. If I gave it any consideration I could maybe think of something else, but this is fine.

Outstanding Created Environment in an Animated Feature

The Grinch (Whoville)
Incredibles 2 (Parr House)
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Social Media District)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Graphic New York City)

Spider-Verse should win, otherwise this category is bullshit.

Outstanding Virtual Cinematography in a Photoreal Project

Aquaman (Third Act Battle)
Echo (Time Displacement)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Gyrosphere Escape)
Ready Player One (New York Race)
Welcome to Marwen (Town of Marwen)

Marwen looked awesome, but Ready Player One is nuts in terms of what they pulled off there.

Outstanding Model in a Photoreal or Animated Project

Avengers: Infinity War (Nidavellir Forge Megastructure)
Incredibles 2 (Underminer Vehicle)
Mortal Engines (London)
Ready Player One (DeLorean DMC-12)
Solo: A Star Wars Story (Millennium Falcon)

The Forge was cool, but the Falcon is the Falcon.

Outstanding Effects Simulations in a Photoreal Feature

Avengers: Infinity War (Titan)
Avengers: Infinity War (Wakanda)
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Venom

Venom. Ha.

I’m guessing effects simulations are CGI approximations of real life stuff? No clue. No real stake in this one, so I don’t know.

Outstanding Effects Simulations in an Animated Feature

The Grinch (Snow, Clouds and Smoke)
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Virus Infection & Destruction)
Smallfoot
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Oh, so yeah, it is actual effects that they are simulating. Makes sense.

Outstanding Compositing in a Photoreal Feature

Avengers: Infinity War (Titan)
First Man
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Welcome to Marwen

They nominated a lot of the same stuff. That’s interesting.

I’m gonna plug this into what I’m doing for my nominations ballot. This should be interesting.

Last of the Release Calendar tomorrow, then we start getting into nominations after that.

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The Motion Picture Sound Editors announced their nominees today. Which is odd, because they previously said they would announce on Monday. Wonder if the fact that Oscar nominations are Tuesday had something to do with it. They did that shit last year too, where they announced day before Oscar nominations, which did nobody any good.

But anyway, here they are, three days early. Now I’ll be able to go into the weekend with every guild at my disposal. Which is good, since the Sound categories are always their own deep, dark woods.

Here are your MPSE nominees for 2018:

Feature Film – Effects / Foley

A Quiet Place
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Deadpool 2
First Man
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Ready Player One
Roma
The Favourite

The Favourite for Sound Effects? Okay, then. Roma, sure. I can kinda get it. The Favourite for FX?

Also of note, Mission Impossible has never been nominated at the Oscars.

A Quiet Place got nominated at both Sound guilds, but that strikes me as a film that gets one or neither category in the end. Knowing them they’ll nominate it in one and not the other. Figuring out which is always a dicey prospect.

Black Panther and First Man seem likely for one or both categories. Ready Player One — no clue where that ends up. And then now we have to contend with the notion of The Favourite or Roma getting in the Sound categories.

Fun times.

Let’s see how the rest of the categories shook out.

Feature Film – Dialogue / ADR

A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Roma
The Favourite

There’s Bohemian Rhapsody, Poppins and Star Is Born, here to make shit even tougher.

FX+Foley is the big one, but this one also can help you narrow it down. The double Roma/Favourite nominations really make me reevaluate how this one is gonna go. Poppins now establishes itself as a contender, just because you know it’ll get on their music category in a second.

These all have to be taken in conjunction with CAS, but still… this is definitely giving me an idea of what they liked.

CAS, by the way, had Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Quiet Place and Star Is Born. So far everything is represented here and some of them are about to be represented more.

Feature Film – Music Underscore

Aquaman
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
First Man
Isle of Dogs
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Roma
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Roma again. Well that says a lot now, doesn’t it?

Quiet Place, Black Panther, First Man… Black Panther didn’t make ADR, but made music. Guess that’s something to note.

Feature Film – Musical

A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Poppins Returns

And there those are again.

I think we have enough to narrow both categories down to like 8 or 9 total contenders. Which is more than you can hope for most years.

Also of note — they had a “Non Theatrical Feature” category, in which they included mostly Netflix films. But then Rom and Buster Scruggs got on the main categories. How’d they figure that out? Roma had a nominal theatrical release a week or two before dropping on Netflix. To my knowledge, Buster Scruggs was pretty much day and date. So what differentiated that for you guys from the “non theatrical” Netflix releases?

Feature Film – Animation

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Peter Rabbit
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Smallfoot
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
The Grinch

Just in case anyone cares about that.

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So yeah, those are your MPSE nominees. I’ll add those to my collection and see what that all means for Oscar nominations. Predictions article is Monday, and now all the data is in. So it’s just figuring shit out from now til then.

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The PGA Awards were last night. Green Book won Best Picture.

Roma had won BFCA. The Globe was split between Bohemian Rhapsody (Drama) and Green Book (Musical/Comedy).

I felt from the start that A Star Is Born wasn’t gonna have the legs to take everything down, so now here we are, with the two other seemingly “top” contenders starting to split all the awards.

Now we have to wait to see what BAFTA does, though I’m suspecting Roma takes that down. If Green Book wins there, then that might be a wrap. But I’m thinking the PGA didn’t go to Roma because they’re still not totally sold about that whole Netflix thing. I’m wondering if and how the Oscars will be different, but right now, you have to consider Green Book and Roma your two frontrunners.

I would automatically say it’s just Green Book, but you have to realize, two of the past three years the PGA was wrong (they had Big Short in 2015 and La La Land in 2016). So really it’s just gonna come down to what all your precursors are and the prevailing winds.

Plus, we still need nominations first on Tuesday. So let’s let those drop before we start proclaiming anything to be over.

Also of note, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? won in Documentary and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won for Animated, cementing those two’s statuses as frontrunners in their respective categories.

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