Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Supporting Actress. This will be easy.
| Year | Best Supporting Actress Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1936 | Gale Sondergaard, Anthony Adverse | Beulah Bondi, The Gorgeous Hussy
Alice Brady, My Man Godfrey Bonita Granville, These Three Maria Ouspenskaya, Dodsworth |
| 1937 | Alice Brady, In Old Chicago | Andrea Leeds, Stage Door
Anne Shirley, Stella Dallas Claire Trevor, Dead End Dame May Whitty, Night Must Fall |
| 1938 | Fay Bainter, Jezebel | Beulah Bondi, Of Human Hearts
Billie Burke, Merrily We Live Spring Byington, You Can’t Take It With You Miliza Korjus, The Great Waltz |
| 1939 | Hattie McDaniel, Gone With the Wind | Olivia de Havilland, Gone With the Wind
Geraldine Fitzgerald, Wuthering Heights Edna May Oliver, Drums Along the Mohawk Maria Ouspenskaya, Love Affair |
| 1940 | Jane Darwell, The Grapes of Wrath | Judith Anderson, Rebecca
Ruth Hussey, The Philadelphia Story Barbara O’Neil, All This, and Heaven Too Marjorie Rambeau, Primrose Path |
| 1941 | Mary Astor, The Great Lie | Sarah Allgood, How Green Was My Valley
Patricia Collinge, The Little Foxes Teresa Wright, The Little Foxes Margaret Wycherly, Sergeant York |
| 1942 | Teresa Wright, Mrs. Miniver | Gladys Cooper, Now, Voyager
Susan Peters, Random Harvest Agnes Moorehead, The Magnificent Ambersons Dame May Whitty, Mrs. Miniver |
| 1943 | Katrina Paxinou, For Whom the Bell Tolls | Gladys Cooper, The Song of Bernadette
Paulette Goddard, So Proudly We Hail! Anne Revere, The Song of Bernadette Lucille Watson, Watch on the Rhine |
| 1944 | Ethel Barrymore, None But the Lonely Heart | Jennifer Jones, Since You Went Away
Angela Lansbury, Gaslight Aline MacMahon, Dragon Seed Agnes Moorehead, Mrs. Parkington |
| 1945 | Anne Revere, National Velvet | Eve Arden, Mildred Pierce
Ann Blyth, Mildred Pierce Angela Lansbury, The Picture of Dorian Grey Joan Lorring, The Corn is Green |
| 1946 | Anne Baxter, The Razor’s Edge | Ethel Barrymore, The Spiral Staircase
Lillian Gish, Duel in the Sun Flora Robson, Saratoga Trunk Gale Sondergaard, Anna and the King of Siam |
| 1947 | Celeste Holm, Gentleman’s Agreement | Ethel Barrymore, The Paradine Case
Gloria Grahame, Crossfire Marjoria Main, The Egg and I Anne Revere, Gentleman’s Agreement |
| 1948 | Claire Trevor, Key Largo | Barbara Bel Geddes, I Remember Mama
Ellen Corby, I Remember Mama Agnes Moorehead, Johnny Belinda Jean Simmons, Hamlet |
| 1949 | Mercedes McCambridge, All the King’s Men | Ethel Barrymore, Pinky
Celeste Holm, Come to the Stable Elsa Lanchester, Come to the Stable Ethel Waters, Pinky |
| 1950 | Josephine Hull, Harvey | Hope Emerson, Caged
Celeste Holm, All About Eve Susan Olson, Sunset Boulevard Thelma Ritter, All About Eve |
| 1951 | Kim Hunter, A Streetcar Named Desire | Joan Blondell, The Blue Veil
Mildred Dunnock, Death of a Salesman Lee Grant, Detective Story Thelma Ritter, The Mating Season |
| 1952 | Gloria Grahame, The Bad and the Beautiful | Jean Hagan, Singin’ in the Rain
Collette Marchand, Moulin Rouge Terry Moore, Come Back, Little Sheba Thelma Ritter, With a Song in My Heart |
| 1953 | Donna Reed, From Here to Eternity | Grace Kelly, Mogambo
Geraldine Page, Hondo Marjorie Rambeau, Torch Song Thelma Ritter, Pickup on South Street |
| 1954 | Eva Marie Saint, On the Waterfront | Nina Foch, Executive Suite
Katy Jurado, Executive Suite Jan Sterling, The High and the Mighty Claire Trevor, The High and the Mighty |
| 1955 | Jo Van Fleet, East of Eden | Betsy Blair, Marty
Peggy Lee, Pete Kelly’s Blues Marisa Pavan, The Rose Tattoo Natalie Wood, Rebel Without a Cause |
| 1956 | Dorothy Malone, Written on the Wind | Midred Dunnock, Baby Doll
Eileen Heckart, The Bad Seed Mercedes McCambridge, Giant Patty McCormack, The Bad Seed |
| 1957 | Miyoshi Umeki, Sayonara | Carolyn Jones, The Bachelor Party
Elsa Lanchester, Witness for the Prosecution Hope Lange, Peyton Place Diane Varsi, Peyton Place |
| 1958 | Wendy Hiller, Separate Tables | Peggy Cass, Autie Mame
Martha Hyer, Some Came Running Maureen Stapleton, Lonelyhearts Cara Williams, The Defiant Ones |
| 1959 | Shelley Winters, The Diary of Anne Frank | Hermione Baddeley, Room at the Top
Susan Kohner, Imitation of Life Juanita Moore, Imitation of Life Thelma Ritter, Pillow Talk |
| 1960 | Shirley Jones, Elmer Gantry | Glynis Johns, The Sundowners
Shirley Knight, The Dark at the Top of the Stairs Janet Leigh, Psycho Mary Ure, Sons and Lovers |
| 1961 | Rita Moreno, West Side Story | Fay Bainter, The Children’s Hour
Judy Garland, Judgment at Nuremberg Lotte Lenya, The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone Una Merkel, Summer and Smoke |
| 1962 | Patty Duke, The Miracle Worker | Mary Badham, To Kill a Mockingbird
Shirley Knight, Sweet Bird of Youth Angela Lansbury, The Manchurian Candidate Thelma Ritter, Birdman of Alcatraz |
| 1963 | Margaret Rutherford, The V.I.P.s | Diane Cilento, Tom Jones
Edith Evans, Tom Jones Joyce Redman, Tom Jones Lilia Skala, Lilies of the Field |
| 1964 | Lila Kedrova, Zorba the Greek | Gladys Cooper, My Fair Lady
Edith Evans, The Chalk Garden Grayson Hall, The Night of the Iguana Agnes Moorehead, Hush… Hush, Sweet Charlotte |
| 1965 | Shelley Winters, A Patch of Blue | Ruth Gordon, Inside Daisy Clover
Joyce Redman, Othello Maggie Smith, Othello Peggy Wood, The Sound of Music |
| 1966 | Sandy Dennis, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? | Wendy Hiller, A Man for All Seasons
Jocelyne LaGarde, Hawaii Vivien Merchant, Alfie Geraldine Page, You’re a Big Boy Now |
| 1967 | Estelle Parsons, Bonnie and Clyde | Carol Channing, Thoroughly Modern Millie
Mildred Natwick, Barefoot in the Park Beah Richards, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner Katharine Ross, The Graduate |
| 1968 | Ruth Gordon, Rosemary’s Babby | Lynn Carlin, Faces
Sondra Locke, The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter Kay Medford, Funny Girl Estelle Parsons, Rachel, Rachel |
| 1969 | Goldie Hawn, Cactus Flower | Cahterine Burns, Last Summer
Dyan Cannon, Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice Sylvia Miles, Midnight Cowboy Susanna York, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? |
| 1970 | Helen Hayes, Airport | Karen Black, Five Easy Pieces
Lee Grant, The Landlord Sally Kellerman, MASH Maureen Stapleton, Airport |
| 1971 | Cloris Leachman, The Last Picture Show | Ann-Margret, Carnal Knowledge
Ellen Burstyn, The Last Picture Show Barbara Harris, Who Is Harry Kellerman and Why Is He Saying Those Terrible Things About Me? Margaret Leighton, The Go-Between |
| 1972 | Eileen Heckart, Butterflies are Free | Jeannie Berlin, The Heartbreak Kid
Geraldine Page, Pete ‘n’ Tillie Susan Tyrrell, Fat City Shelley Winters, The Poseidon Adventure |
| 1973 | Tatum O’Neal, Paper Moon | Linda Blair, The Exorcist
Candy Clark, American Graffiti Madeline Kahn, Paper Moon Sylvia Sidney, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams |
| 1974 | Ingrid Begman, Murder on the Orient Express | Valentina Cortese, Day for Night
Madeline Kahn, Blazing Saddles Diane Ladd, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore Talia Shire, The Godfather Part II |
| 1975 | Lee Grant, Shampoo | Ronee Blakley, Nashville
Sylvia Miles, Farewell, My Lovely Lily Tomlin, Nashville Brenda Vaccaro, Jacqueline Susann’s Once is Not Enough |
| 1976 | Beatrice Straight, Network | Jane Alexander, All the President’s Men
Jodie Foster, Taxi Driver Lee Grant, Voyage of the Damned Piper Laurie, Carrie |
| 1977 | Vanessa Redgrave, Julia | Leslie Browne, The Turning Point
Quinn Cummings, The Goodbye Girl Melinda Dillon, Close Encounters of the Third Kind Tuesday Weld, Looking for Mr. Goodbar |
| 1978 | Maggie Smith, California Suite | Dyan Cannon, Heaven Can Wait
Penelope Milford, Coming Home Maureen Stapleton, Interiors Meryl Streep, The Deer Hunter |
| 1979 | Meryl Streep, Kramer vs. Kramer | Jane Alexander, Kramer vs. Kramer
Barbara Barrie, Breaking Away Candice Bergen, Starting Over Mariel Heminway, Manhattan |
| 1980 | Mary Steenburgen, Melvin and Howard | Eileen Brennan, Private Benjamin
Eva Le Gallienne, Resurrection Cathy Moriarty, Raging Bull Diana Scarwid, Inside Moves |
| 1981 | Maureen Stapleton, Reds | Melinda Dillon, Absence of Malice
Jane Fonda, On Golden Pond Joan Hackett, The Last Laugh Elizabeth McGovern, Ragtime |
| 1982 | Jessica Lange, Tootsie | Glenn Close, The World According to Garp
Teri Garr, Tootsie Kim Stanley, Frances Lesley Ann Warren, Victor Victoria |
| 1983 | Linda Hunt, The Year of Living Dangerously | Cher, Silkwood
Glenn Close, The Big Chill Amy Irving, Yentl Alfre Woodard, Cross Creek |
| 1984 | Peggy Ashcroft, A Passage to India | Glenn Close, The Natural
Lindsay Crouse, Places in the Heart Christine Lahti, Swing Shift Geraldine Page, The Pope of Greenwich Village |
| 1985 | Anjelica Huston, Prizzi’s Honor | Margaret Avery, The Color Purple
Amy Madigan, Twice in a Lifetime Meg Tilly, Agnes of God Oprah Winfrey, The Color Purple |
| 1986 | Dianne Wiest, Hannah and Her Sisters | Tess Harper, Crimes of the Heart
Piper Laurie, Children of a Lesser God Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, The Color of Money Maggie Smith, A Room with a Vier |
| 1987 | Olympia Dukakis, Moonstruck | Norma Aleandro, Gaby: A True Story
Anne Archer, Fatal Attraction Anne Ramsey, Throw Momma from the Train Ann Sothern, The Whales of August |
| 1988 | Geena Davis, The Accidental Tourist | Joan Cusack, Working Girl
Frances McDormand, Mississippi Burning Michelle Pfeiffer, Dangerous Liaisons Sigourney Weaver, Working Girl |
| 1989 | Brenda Fricker, My Left Foot | Anjelica Huston, Enemies, a Love Story
Lena Olin, Enemies, a Love Story Julia Roberts, Steel Magnolias Dianne Wiest, Parenthood |
| 1990 | Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost | Annette Bening, The Grifters
Lorraine Bracco, Goodfellas Diane Ladd, Wild at Heart Mary McDonnell, Dances with Wolves |
| 1991 | Mercedes Ruehl, The Fisher King | Diane Ladd, Rambling Rose
Juliette Lewis, Cape Fear Kate Nelligan, The Prince of Tides Jessica Tandy, Fried Green Tomatoes |
| 1992 | Marisa Tomei, My Cousin Vinny | Judy Davis, Husbands and Wives
Joan Plowright, Enchanted April Vanessa Redgrave, Howards End Miranda Richardson, Damage |
| 1993 | Anna Paquin, The Piano | Holly Hunter, The Firm
Rosie Perez, Fearless Winona Ryder, The Age of Innocence Emma Thompson, In the Name of the Father |
| 1994 | Dianne Wiest, Bullets over Broadway | Rosemary Harris, Tom & Viv
Helen Mirren, The Madness of King George Uma Thurman, Pulp Fiction Jennifer Tilly, Bullets over Broadway |
| 1995 | Mira Sorvino, Mighty Aphrodite | Joan Allen, Nixon
Kathleen Quinlan, Apollo 13 Mare Winningham, Georgia Kate Winslet, Sense an Sensibility |
| 1996 | Juliette Binoche, The English Patient | Joan Allen, The Crucible
Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces Barbara Hershey, Portrait of a Lady Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets & Lies |
| 1997 | Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential | Joan Cusack, In & Out
Minnie Driver, Good Will Hunting Julianne Moore, Boogie Nights Gloria Stuart, Titanic |
| 1998 | Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love | Kathy Bates, Primary Colors
Brenda Blethyn, Little Voice Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jackie Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsterds |
| 1999 | Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted | Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry |
| 2000 | Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock | Judi Dench, Chocolat
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous Frances McDormand, Almost Famous Julie Walters, Billy Elliot |
| 2001 | Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind | Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
Maggie Smith, Gosford Park Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom Kate Winslet, Iris |
| 2002 | Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago | Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Queen Latifah, Chicago Julianne Moore, The Hours Meryl Streep, Adaptation |
| 2003 | Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain | Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River Holly Huntet, Thirteen |
| 2004 | Cate Blanchett, The Aviator | Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda Natalie Portman, Closer |
| 2005 | Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener | Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote Frances McDormand, North Country Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain |
| 2006 | Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls | Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine Rinko Kikuchi, Babel |
| 2007 | Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton | Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster Saoirse Ronan, Atonement Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone |
| 2008 | Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Amy Adams, Doubt
Viola Davis, Doubt Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler |
| 2009 | Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire | Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air |
| 2010 | Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom |
| 2011 | Octavia Spencer, The Help | Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs |
| 2012 | Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables | Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln Helen Hunt, The Sessions Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook |
| 2013 | Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave | Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle Julia Roberts, August: Osage County June Squibb, Nebraska |
| 2014 | Patricia Arquette, Boyhood | Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game Emma Stone, Birdman Meryl Streep, Into the Woods |
| 2015 | Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
|
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol Rachel McAdams, Spotlight Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs |
SAG isn’t great here, but it’s not the worst of the acting categories.
They’re 15/22 all-time. Still better than 2/3. Though one of the 7 times they didn’t match was Kate Winslet winning for The Reader. So really like 70% of the time they’re right.
Also — fun fact — outside of 2008 and Kate Winslet, they’ve only been wrong once since 2002. It was 2007, and Ruby Dee instead of Tilda Swinton. So in 14 years, one wrong.
Basically you want to listen to SAG.
SAG, BAFTA, BFCA and the Globe all went to Viola Davis. This is her third nomination, and she barely missed for The Help in 2011. If there’s ever a sure thing in an acting category this year, she’s it.
Oh, but I should probably save that until the next part.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
One of the least surprising categories ever. Not even the possibility of surprise.
Rankings:
5. Octavia Spencer — She’s nominated because the film needed an acting nominee and the category is incredibly weak. So they put a previous winner in there to make it look better. (That’s not how it went down, but retroactively, that’s what it looks like.) There’s not even a small chance she could win this.
4. Nicole Kidman — The nomination is the reward. Honoring a veteran and previous winner who has now moved on from leading roles into “mom” roles. She’s strong, but she has zero chance at winning. This is just keeping her relevant. That’s all this is. Less than 5% chance she wins this.
3. Michelle Williams — She’s got her one big scene, and it’s a big scene. She’ll get a few votes. But without any precursors and the other acting nominees from the film in doubt (especially Best Actor, which looked like a sure thing earlier on), she’s nothing more than a dark horse at best. Complete third choice all around. She’ll catch a few votes, but has nowhere near the backing to get anywhere close to a win.
2. Naomie Harris — There will be people who vote for her. Not enough, but there will be some votes going her way. They’ll doubly up the Supporting categories for Moonlight. She’ll get somewhere in the high teens to 20% of the vote. But she’s definitely not the frontrunner nor does anyone think she’s gonna win this. The nomination is the reward. She’s a first time nominee. She’s not…
1. Viola Davis — She’s one of the most respected actresses working. She’s on her third nomination. Her first was Doubt, a one-scene showstopper kind of like Michelle Williams. And it was her first nomination, where it was a welcoming but not something they took seriously for a win, like Naomie Harris. She just missed Best Actress in 2011, and here she is, with a powerhouse performance that’s lauded all around and could land both stars of this movie Oscars. She’s easily the favorite, and of all four acting categories, this one’s the most locked. Who’s gonna go against Viola at this point?
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Tomorrow is Cinematography.
