Oscars 2016 Category Breakdown: Best Cinematography

Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.

What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.

Today is Best Cinematography. This is your annual reminder that Roger Deakins has never won this category.

Year	Best Cinematography Winners	Other Nominees
1927-1928	*Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans*	*The Devil Dancer* *The Magic Flame* *Sadie Thompson*
1928-1929	*White Shadows in the South Seas*	*The Divine Lady* *4 Devils* *In Old Arizona* *Our Dancing Daughters* *Street Angel*
1929-1930	*With Byrd at the South Pole*	*All Quiet on the Western Front* *Anna Christie* *Hell’s Angels* *The Love Parade*
1930-1931	*Tabu: A Story of the South Seas*	*Cimarron* *Morocco* *The Right to Love* *Svengali*
1931-1932	*Shanghai Express*	*Arrowsmith* *Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde*
1932-1933	*A Farewell to Arms*	*Reunion in Vienna* *The Sign of the Cross*
1934	*Cleopatra*	*The Affairs of Cellini* *Operator 13*
1935	*A Midsummer Night’s Dream*	*Barbary Coast* *The Crusades* *Les Misérables*
1936	*Anthony Adverse*	*The General Died at Dawn* *The Gorgeous Hussy*
1937	*The Good Earth*	*Dead End* *Wings Over Honolulu*
1938	*The Great Waltz*	*Algiers* *Army Girl* *The Buccaneer* *Jezebel* *Mad About Music* *Suez* *Vivacious Lady* *You Can’t Take It With You* *The Young in Heart*
1939	Black and White: *Wuthering Heights* Color: *Gone With the Wind*	Black and White: *First Love* *The Great Victor Herbert* *Gunga Din* *Intermezzo: A Love Story* *Juraez* *Lady of the Tropics* *Only Angels Have Wings* *Stagecoach* *The Rains Came* Color: *Drums Along the Mohawk* *The Four Feathers* *The Mikado* *The Private Lives of Elizabeth and Essex* *The Wizard of Oz*
1940	Black and White: *Rebecca* Color: *The Thief of Bagdad*	Black and White: *Abe Lincoln in Illinois* *All This, and Heaven Too* *Arise, My Love* *Boom Town* *Foreign Correspondent* *The Letter* *The Long Voyage Home* *Spring Parade* *Waterloo Bridge* Color: *Bitter Sweet* *The Blue Bird* *Down Argentine Way* *North West Mounted Police* *Northwest Passage*
1941	Black and White: *How Green Was My Valley* Color: *Blood and Sand*	Black and White: *The Chocolate Soldier* *Citizen Kane* *Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde* *Here Comes Mr. Jordan* *Hold Back the Dawn* *Sergeant York* *Sun Valley Serenade* *Sundown* *That Hamilton Woman* Color: *Aloma of the South Seas* *Billy the Kid* *Blossoms in the Dust* *Dive Bomber* *Louisiana Purchase*
1942	Black and White: *Mrs. Miniver* Color: *The Black Swan*	Black and White: *Kings Row* *The Magnificent Ambersons* *Moontide* *The Pied Piper* *The Pride of the Yankees* *Take a Letter, Darling* *The Talk of the Town* *Ten Gentlemen from West Point* *This Above All* Color: *Arabian Nights* *Captains of the Clouds* *Jungle Book* *Reap the Wild Wind* *To the Shores of Tripoli*
1943	Black and White: *The Song of Bernadette* Color: *Phantom of the Opera*	Black and White: *Air Force* *Casablanca* *Corvette K-225* *Five Graves to Cairo* *The Human Comedy* *Madame Curie* *The North Star* *Sahara* *So Proudly We Hail!* Color: *For Whom the Bell Tolls* *Heaven Can Wait* *Hello, Frisco, Hello* *Lassie Come Home* *Thousands Cheer*
1944	Black and White: *Laura* Color: *Wilson*	Black and White: *Double Indemnity* *Dragon Seed* *Gaslight* *Going My Way* *Lifeboat* *Since You Went Away* *Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo* *The Uninvited* *The White Cliffs of Dover* Color: *Cover Girl* *Home in Indiana* *Kismet* *Lady in the Dark* *Meet Me in St. Louis*
1945	Black and White: *The Picture of Dorian Gray* Color: *Leave Her to Heaven*	Black and White: *The Keys of the Kingdom* *The Lost Weekend* *Mildred Pierce* *Spellbound* Color: *Anchors Aweigh* *National Velvet* *A Song to Remember* *The Spanish Main*
1946	Black and White: *Anna and the King of Siam* Color: *The Yearling*	Black and White: *The Green Years* Color: *The Jolson Story*
1947	Black and White: *Great Expectations* Color: *Black Narcissus*	Black and White: *Green Dolphin Street* *The Ghost and Mrs. Muir* Color: *Life with Father* *Mother Wore Tights*
1948	Black and White: *The Naked City* Color: *Joan of Arc*	Black and White: *A Foreign Affair* *I Remember Mama* *Johnny Belinda* *Portrait of Jennie* Color: *Green Grass of Wyoming* *The Loves of Carmen* *The Three Musketeers*
1949	Black and White: *Battleground* Color: *She Wore a Yellow Ribbon*	Black and White: *Champion* *Come to the Stable* *The Heiress* *Prince of Foxes* Color: *The Barkleys of Broadway* *Jolson Sings Again* *Little Women* *Sand*
1950	Black and White: *The Third Man* Color: *King Solomon’s Mines*	Black and White: *All About Eve* *The Asphalt Jungle* *The Furies* *Sunset Boulevard* Color: *Annie Get Your Gun* *Broken Arrow* *The Flame and the Arrow* *Samson and Delilah*
1951	Black and White: *A Place in the Sun* Color: *An American in Paris*	Black and White: *Death of a Salesman* *The Frogmen* *Strangers on a Train* *A Streetcar Named Desire* Color: *David and Bathsheba* *Quo Vadis* *Show Boat* *When Worlds Collide*
1952	Black and White: *The Bad and the Beautiful* Color: *The Quiet Man*	Black and White: *The Big Sky* *My Cousin Rachel* *Navajo* *Sudden Fear* Color: *Hans Christian Anderson* *Ivanhoe* *Million Dollar Mermaid* *The Snows of Kilimanjaro*
1953	Black and White: *From Here to Eternity* Color: *Shane*	Black and White: *The Four Poster* *Julius Caesar* *Martin Luther* *Roman Holiday* Color: *All the Brothers Were Valiant* *Beneath the 12 Mile Reef* *Lili* *The Robe*
1954	Black and White: *On the Waterfront* Color: *Three Coins in the Fountain*	Black and White: *The Country Girl* *Executive Suite* *Rogue Cop* *Sabrina* Color: *The Egyptian* *Rear Window* *Seven Brides for Seven Brothers* *The Silver Chalice*
1955	Black and White: *The Rose Tattoo* Color: *To Catch a Thief*	Black and White: *Blackboard Jungle* *I’ll Cry Tomorrow* *Marty* *Queen Bee* Color: *Guys and Dolls* *Love Is a Many-Splendored Thing* *A Man Called Peter* *Oklahoma!*
1956	Black and White: *Somebody Up There Likes Me* Color: *Around the World in 80 Days*	Black and White: *Baby Doll* *The Bad Seed* *The Harder They Fall* *Stagecoach to Fury* Color: *The Eddy Duchin Story* *The King and I* *The Ten Commandments* *War and Peace*
1957	*The Bridge on the River Kwai*	*An Affair to Remember* *Funny Face* *Peyton Place* *Sayonara*
1958	Black and White: *The Defiant Ones* Color: *Gigi*	Black and White: *Desire Under the Elms* *I Want to Live!* *Separate Tables* *The Young Lions* Color: *Auntie Mame* *Cat on a Hot Tin Roof* *The Old Man and the Sea* *South Pacific*
1959	Black and White: *The Diary of Anne Frank* Color: *Ben-Hur*	Black and White: *Anatomy of a Murder* *Career* *Some Like It Hot* *The Young Philadelphians* Color: *The Big Fisherman* *The Five Pennies* *A Nun’s Story* *Porgy and Bess*
1960	Black and White: *Sons and Lovers* Color: *Spartacus*	Black and White: *The Apartment* *The Facts of Life* *Inherit the Wind* *Psycho* Color: *The Alamo* *BUtterfield 8* *Exodus* *Pepe*
1961	Black and White: *The Hustler* Color: *West Side Story*	Black and White: *The Absent-Minded Professor* *The Children’s Hour* *Judgment at Nuremberg* *One, Two, Three* Color: *Fanny* *Flower Drum Song* *A Majority of One* *One-Eyed Jacks*
1962	Black and White: *The Longest Day* Color: *Lawrence of Arabia*	Black and White: *Birdman of Alcatraz* *To Kill a Mockingbird* *Two for the Seesaw* *What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?* Color: *Gypsy* *Hatari!* *Mutiny on the Bounty* *The Wonderful World of the Brothers Grimm*
1963	Black and White: *Hud* Color: *Cleopatra*	Black and White: *The Balcony* *The Caretakers* *Lilies of the Field* *Love with the Proper Stranger* Color: *The Cardinal* *How the West Was Won* *Irma la Douce* *It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World*
1964	Black and White: *Zorba the Greek* Color: *My Fair Lady*	Black and White: *The Americanization of Emily* *Fate is the Hunter* *Hush… Hush, Sweet Charlotte* *The Night of the Iguana* Color: *Becket* *Cheyenne Autumn* *Mary Poppins* *The Unsinkable Molly Brown*
1965	Black and White: *Ship of Fools* Color: *Doctor Zhivago*	Black and White: *In Harm’s Way* *King Rat* *Morituri* *A Patch of Blue* Color: *The Agony and the Ecstasy* *The Great Race* *The Greatest Story Ever Told* *The Sound of Music*
1966	Black and White: *Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?* Color: *A Man for All Seasons*	Black and White: *The Fortune Cookie* *Georgy Girl* *Is Paris Burning?* *Seconds* Color: *Fantastic Voyage* *Hawaii* *The Professionals* *The Sand Pebbles*
1967	*Bonnie and Clyde*	*Camelot* *Doctor Dolittle* *The Graduate* *In Cold Blood*
1968	*Romeo and Juliet*	*Funny Girl* *Ice Station Zebra* *Oliver!* *Star!*
1969	*Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid*	*Anne of the Thousand Days* *Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice* *Hello, Dolly!* *Marooned*
1970	*Ryan’s Daughter*	*Patton* *Airport* *Tora! Tora! Tora!* *Women in Love*
1971	*Fiddler on the Roof*	*The French Connection* *The Last Picture Show* *Nicholas and Alexandra* *Summer of ‘42*
1972	*Cabaret*	*1776* *Butterflies are Free* *The Poseidon Adventure* *Travels with my Aunt*
1973	*Cries and Whispers*	*The Exorcist* *Jonathan Livingston Seagull* *The Sting* *The Way We Were*
1974	*The Towering Inferno*	*Chinatown* *Earthquake* *Lenny* *Murder on the Orient Express*
1975	*Barry Lyndon*	*The Day of the Locust* *Funny Lady* *The Hindenburg* *One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest*
1976	*Bound for Glory*	*King Kong* *Logan’s Run* *Network* *A Star is Born*
1977	*Close Encounters of the Third Kind*	*Islands in the Stream* *Julia* *Looking for Mr. Goodbar* *The Turning Point*
1978	*Days of Heaven*	*The Deer Hunter* *Heaven Can Wait* *Same Time, Next Year* *The Wiz*
1979	*Apocalypse Now*	*1941* *All That Jazz* *The Black Hole* *Kramer vs. Kramer*
1980	*Tess*	*The Blue Lagoon* *Coal Miner’s Daughter* *The Formula* *Raging Bull*
1981	*Reds*	*Excalibur* *On Golden Pond* *Ragtime* *Raiders of the Lost Ark*
1982	*Gandhi*	*Das Boot* *E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial* *Sophie’s Choice* *Tootsie*
1983	*Fanny and Alexander*	*Flashdance* *The Right Stuff* *WarGames* *Zelig*
1984	*The Killing Fields*	*Amadeus* *The Natural* *A Passage to India* *The River*
1985	*Out of Africa*	*The Color Purple* *Murphy’s Romance* *Ran* *Witness*
1986	*The Mission*	*Peggy Sue Got Married* *Platoon* *A Room with a View* *Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home*
1987	*The Last Emperor*	*Broadcast News* *Empire of the Sun* *Hope and Glory* *Matewan*
1988	*Mississippi Burning*	*Rain Man* *Tequila Sunrise* *The Unbearable Lightness of Being* *Who Framed Roger Rabbit*
1989	*Glory*	*The Abyss* *Blaze* *Born on the Fourth of July* *The Fabulous Baker Boys*
1990	*Dances with Wolves*	*Avalon* *Dick Tracy* *The Godfather Part III* *Henry & June*
1991	*JFK*	*Bugsy* *The Prince of Tides* *Terminator 2: Judgment Day* *Thelma & Louise*
1992	*A River Runs Through It*	*Hoffa* *Howards End* *The Lover* *Unforgiven*
1993	*Schindler’s List*	*Farewell My Concubine* *The Fugitive* *The Piano* *Searching for Bobby Fisher*
1994	*Legends of the Fall*	*Forrest Gump* *The Shawshank Redemption* *Three Colors: Red* *Wyatt Earp*
1995	*Braveheart*	*Batman Forever* *A Little Princess* *Sense and Sensibility* *Shanghai Triad*
1996	*The English Patient*	*Evita* *Fargo* *Fly Away Home* *Michael Collins*
1997	*Titanic*	*Amistad* *Kundun* *L.A. Confidential* *The Wings of the Dove*
1998	*Saving Private Ryan*	*A Civil Action* *Elizabeth* *Shakespeare in Love* *The Thin Red Line*
1999	*American Beauty*	*The End of the Affair* *The Insider* *Sleepy Hollow* *Snow Falling on Cedars*
2000	*Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*	*Gladiator* *Malèna* *O Brother Where Art Thou?* *The Patriot*
2001	*The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring*	*Amélie* *Black Hawk Down* *The Man Who Wasn’t There* *Moulin Rouge!*
2002	*Road to Perdition*	*Chicago* *Far from Heaven* *Gangs of New York* *The Pianist*
2003	*Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World*	*City of God* *Cold Mountain* *Girl with a Pearl Earring* *Seabiscuit*
2004	*The Aviator*	*House of Flying Daggers* *The Passion of the Christ* *The Phantom of the Opera* *A Very Long Engagement*
2005	*Memoirs of a Geisha*	*Batman Begins* *Brokeback Mountain* *Good Night, and Good Luck* *The New World*
2006	*Pan’s Labyrinth*	*The Black Dahlia* *Children of Men* *The Illusionist* *The Prestige*
2007	*There Will Be Blood*	*The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford* *Atonement* *The Diving Bell and the Butterfly* *No Country for Old Men*
2008	*Slumdog Millionaire*	*Changeling* *The Curious Case of Benjamin Button* *The Dark Knight* *The Reader*
2009	*Avatar*	*Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince* *The Hurt Locker* *Inglourious Basterds* *The White Ribbon*
2010	*Inception*	*Black Swan* *The King’s Speech* *The Social Network* *True Grit*
2011	*Hugo*	*The Artist* *The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo* *The Tree of Life* *War Horse*
2012	*Life of Pi*	*Anna Karenina* *Django Unchained* *Lincoln* *Skyfall*
2013	*Gravity*	*The Grandmaster* *Inside Llewyn Davis* *Nebraska* *Prisoners*
2014	*Birdman*	*The Grand Budapest Hotel* *Ida* *Mr. Turner* *Unbroken*
2015	*The Revenant*	Carol The Hateful Eight Mad Max: Fury Road Sicario

We begin with ASC and how it matches up against the Oscars. ASC started handing out in 1986:

1986, Peggy Sue Got Married (lost to The Mission, which it beat for ASC)
1987, Empire of the Sun (lost to The Last Emperor, which it beat for ASC)
1988, Tequila Sunrise (lost to Mississippi Burning, which it beat for ASC)
1989, Blaze (lost to Glory, which wasn’t nominated for ASC)
1990, Dances with Wolves (won both)
1991, Bugsy (lost to JFK, which it beat for ASC)
1992, Hoffa (lost to A River Runs Through It, which it beat for ASC)
1993, Searching for Bobby Fischer (lost to Schindler’s List, which it beat for ASC)
1994, The Shawshank Redemption (Deakins’ first win. Lost to Legends of the Fall, which it beat for ASC)
1995, Braveheart (won both)
1996, The English Patient (won both)
1997, Titanic (won both)
1998, The Thin Red Line (lost to Saving Private Ryan, which it beat for ASC)
1999, American Beauty (won both)
2000, The Patriot (lost to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which it beat for ASC)
2001, The Man Who Wasn’t There (Deakins #2. Lost to Fellowship, which it beat for ASC)
2002, Road to Perdition (won both)
2003, Seabiscuit (lost to Master and Commander, which it beat for ASC. That was a weird year)
2004, A Very Long Engagement (lost to The Aviator, which it beat for ASC)
2005, Memoirs of a Geisha (won both)
2006, Children of Men (fuck yeah! But it lost to Pan’s Labyrinth, which wasn’t even nominated for ASC. That’s a first. Maybe because Navarro wasn’t in the guild?)
2007, There Will Be Blood (won both)
2008, Slumdog Millionaire (won both)
2009, The White Ribbon (lost to Avatar, which it beat for ASC)
2010, Inception (won both)
2011, The Tree of Life (lost to Hugo, which it beat for ASC)
2012, Skyfall (Deakins #3. Lost to Life of Pi, which it beat for ASC)
2013, Gravity (won both)
2014, Birdman (won both)
2015, The Revenant (won both)

The cinematographers tend to pick what they think is best and then you take that and then recalibrate for the Academy’s tastes.

Also worth noting — BAFTA, in the years where ASC did not get it right:

2012, they had Life of Pi
2011, they did not have Hugo (they had The Artist)
2009, they did not have Avatar (they had The Hurt Locker)
2006, they did not have Pan’s Labyrinth (they also had Children of Men)
2004, they did not have The Aviator (they had Collateral)
2003, they did not have Master and Commander (they had Return of the King)

Okay, that’s enough. They basically don’t get it right either. You either go with ASC or spot where they’re gonna go different in your analysis.

Fun fact, though — BFCA started giving out a Cinematography award in 2009, and they’ve only missed once since then.

So based on that — ASC gave their award to Lion and BFCA gave theirs to La La Land. BAFTA hands out on Sunday. I’m thinking they’re likely gonna double up on La La Land.

Best Cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

This year, ASC matched the category 5/5. Based on most of the precursors, this was the expected category.

Rankings:

5. Arrival — It looks gorgeous. Most people are gonna remember that one shot of the ship more than anything. But it’s very nice looking all around. Though it won’t get anywhere near the support to win this. Look for it in Editing if anything. This is another one where it has 8 nominations and probably will end up with no wins. Maybe a Sound category? Definitely not gonna be this. I could maybe make a case for this as third choice, but to them, it’s just a very good sci-fi film. They won’t vote for it here. Maybe if it wins the BAFTA I can make a case for it higher, but right now, I can’t see this getting a whole lot of support here. (Then again, if there is gonna be a surprise, this is one of those categories you earmark. This may be #5, but they’re much more bunched up than you’d think.)

3. Silence — It’s Scorsese. Even the people who haven’t seen it will figure it looks good. It shouldn’t end up with enough votes to win, seeing as how this was its only nomination, but it’ll get a handful of votes from various places. I could make a case as high as third choice, but given the lack of support everywhere, this might be an overall fifth choice. It needed a guild win to make any noise. Given the lack of a BAFTA nomination, you could make the case this is fifth choice here. I wouldn’t argue with that.

3. Moonlight — Just because this film has fervent support and there will be people who vote for it on that alone. This is anywhere from fifth choice to as high as second. If we’re basing this purely on the cinematography, I’d maybe put this fourth, if not fifth. But I feel like this is gonna get some votes to make it the third choice. Maybe I’m wrong. I still don’t think this wins. I just think there will be some automatic support here that will get it some votes.

2. Lion — The ASC award puts him here now. Without that, I’d have put this outright fifth. It just feels like one of those movies that’s gonna go home empty handed. One of those ones people like, but when it comes down to it, it’s not gonna get any win votes. 6 Oscar nominations is a solid consolation prize. Maybe this gets votes to potentially take this down, if they decide to spread the wealth. This is definitely a prime category for that. But I can’t consider this a favorite. Not unless this wins BAFTA too.

1. La La Land — The film with 14 nominations is always gonna be the favorite in most categories. BFCA tends to get this right, not that I’m using that as my justification for this. I think this will get automatic votes here for a lot of reasons. I think BAFTA is gonna back this up and make it an official favorite. (Though knowing them, watch them take Arrival.) I just think this is the most likely film to win. Look at the other choices — no film can galvanize as much support as this can. The sweep vote hasn’t happened in a few years, so I’m not thinking this is an automatic winner. But I do think it’s the favorite. This could be that bunched up category that produces a weird winner, like Editing in 2011 and Visual Effects last year. Until that happens, though, this is your favorite.

– – – – – – – – – –

Tomorrow is Best Original Song.

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Oscars 2016 Category Breakdown: Best Cinematography

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