The BAFTAs were just announced. Guess what? Shit’s locked, guys.
This is the last major voting body we’ve been waiting for. After this, it’s just WGA, CAS, CDG, MPSE and the Makeup & Hairstylists Guild. Of those, we really only are gonna get any help from CDG. The rest we can reason through with the categories.
But yeah, BAFTAs. They definitely illuminated a few things I was curious about. Let’s just get into it. Here are your winners:
Best Film
Arrival
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Winner: La La Land
Yeah… that about sews that one up. I don’t think there was any doubt La La Land was gonna win Best Picture, but this seals it. There’s you’re winner. 1/24.
Outstanding British Film
American Honey
Denial
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
I, Daniel Blake
Notes on Blindness
Under the Shadow
Winner: I, Daniel Blake
Good for him. This was a category that didn’t matter. And you had to figure Daniel Blake was gonna win it, seeing as how they also nominated it for Best Film.
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yup. Also locked. Even if they went elsewhere, that wouldn’t change anything. 2/24.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Winner: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Denzel wasn’t nominated, so that won’t change too much. But with BFCA, BAFTA and the Globe, Affleck has to remain the favorite, with Denzel the second choice. SAG helps, but SAG isn’t everything. Especially now that I’m starting to think SAG is deliberately voting certain ways because of the larger voting body and other things. But we’ll see.
For now, it’s Denzel vs. Affleck, and that’ll be one of the categories we think long and hard about in two weeks.
Best Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Winner: Emma Stone, La La Land
Wow. A sound rejection of Natalie Portman. Emma’s gonna win this Oscar, guys. I didn’t think that was a legitimate possibility when we started, but unless Isabelle Huppert is gonna come out of nowhere (very unlikely, given the low visibility of that film), I think Emma’s got it. Natalie’s got no precursors. Oh, wait, BFCA. She has that. So she’s got one. Emma’s got the two that matter. This will be interesting. Not a lock by any stretch, but Emma Stone now becomes your frontrunner to win Best Actress. This is happening, guys.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Winner: Dev Patel, Lion
Well that was interesting. I guess the Brits didn’t take to Moonlight. I thought for sure they’d go Aaron Taylor-Johnson and make this another one of those “what if’ scenarios. But Dev Patel is interesting. This category tends to go interesting ways at the BAFTAs. Barkhad Abdi won this. Geoffrey Rush. They like giving this to Brits. Either they hit this category dead on or they go off to vote for a Brit. This is one of the latter categories. I don’t see how Dev Patel mounts any sort of push in this race. Mahershala Ali should have it in the bag.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Winner: Viola Davis, Fences
Well this was locked from the jump. Nothing changes here. Naomie Harris winning wouldn’t have changed that. All this tells me is that they didn’t really care for Moonlight all that much. It happens.
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Winner: Manchester by the Sea
I don’t usually put much stock into BAFTA Screenplay categories, but this helps confirm my suspicions about what’s going to win there. I imagine the WGA will do the same.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Lion
Nocturnal Animals
Winner: Lion
Interesting. Cool choice. Moonlight wasn’t nominated here so this won’t affect the Oscar outcome either way. Though this is most of your Oscar category. Moonlight’s won the Scripter and may still win the WGA (though I think it’s Original there too) so that should be your winner here.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
The Girl with All the Gifts
The Hard Stop
Notes on Blindness
The Pass
Under the Shadow
Winner: Under the Shadow
K.
The Girl with All the Gifts is amazing, though.
Best Foreign Language Film
Dheepan
Julieta
Mustang
Son of Saul
Toni Erdmann
Winner: Son of Saul
This really helps us out… in 2015.
Best Documentary
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years
The Eagle Huntress
Notes on Blindness
13th
Weiner
Winner: 13th
This would have been an automatic winner had it not been for O.J. There’s still the possibility they reject O.J. and vote for this anyway. I’m not ruling that out. But for now, let’s assume it’s still O.J.
Best Animated Film
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Zootopia
Winner: Kubo and the Two Strings
Oh, you Brits. There you go again… getting my hopes up. Only to see them crushed by Zootopia in the end.
I appreciate it, though. I’ll keep the hope alive.
Best Score
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Nocturnal Animals
Winner: La La Land
Another lock. This is automatic. Nothing to say here.
Best Cinematography
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion
Nocturnal Animals
Winner: La La Land
Yeah… Lion winning here would have made that an interesting conversation, but I think we may be locked here too. We’re looking at a relative sweep, guys. 7, 8, 9 wins.
Best Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Nocturnal Animals
Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
I was waiting for one of these to happen. Editing could give us a surprise this year. La La Land is the favorite and probable winner, but you could see an interesting outcome, much like with The Artist and 2011. I’m not writing this one off just yet. Hacksaw and Arrival will make plays for this at the Oscars.
Best Production Design
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Winner: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Yeah, the Academy’s not gonna do this. I can convince myself they might, but Harry Potter as a franchise has won a total of zero Oscars. Production Design is an open category. La La Land winning here would have closed it, but this keeps things somewhat interesting. Definitely one we’re gonna have to think about when we make picks.
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Winner: Jackie
It’s the clear choice. CDG might not award it, since they tend to do their own thing, but this should easily win the Oscar. I’d be pretty surprised if they went with La La Land or with something else. If Jackie’s gonna win anything, it’s Costumes.
Best Makeup and Hair
Doctor Strange
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hacksaw Ridge
Nocturnal Animals
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Winner: Florence Foster Jenkins
This was the only one shortlisted. It makes the most sense. Were they to nominate it, it would have probably won. Since none of these films were nominated at the Oscars, this category is meaningless for our purposes here.
Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Winner: The Jungle Book
Yeah, this is probably locked. I see no reason to think this won’t easily win the Oscar. There’s not even anything I could entertain a case for other than this.
Best Sound
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Winner: Arrival
This makes sense. La La Land will win for Mixing, but Editing is still open. Doubt Arrival can take it over Hacksaw, and there’s still the possibility they vote for La La Land in both because they don’t know the difference.
Best Animated British Short
The Alan Dimension
A Love Story
Tough
Winner: A Love Story
Sure.
Best British Live-Action Short
Consumed
Home
Mouth of Hell
The Party
Standby
Winner: Home
Good for them.
EE Rising Star award
Laia Costa
Lucas Hedges
Tom Holland
Ruth Negga
Anya Taylor-Joy
Winner: Tom Holland
Oh, so the category the public can vote for voted for Spider-Man. Shocker.
– – – – – – – – – –
So yeah, La La Land is gonna win everything, guys. Now all I have to interest me are the Production Design, Editing, maybe Cinematography… stuff like that. I can pretend Actor and Actress are more interesting than they are. But mostly we’re looking at a big night for La La Land and the obvious choices in most of the other categories.
Get ready, guys. Lotta song and dance coming your way in two weeks.
