Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Production Design.
| Year | Best Production Design Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1927-1928 | The Dove & Tempest | Seventh Heaven
Sunrise |
| 1928-1929 | The Bridge of San Luis Rey | Dynamite
Alibi The Awakening The Patriot Sunrise |
| 1929-1930 | King of Jazz | Bulldog Drummond
The Love Parade Sally The Vagabond King |
| 1930-1931 | Cimarron | Just Imagine
Morocco Svengali Whoopee! |
| 1931-1932 | Transatlantic | À nous la liberté
Arrowsmith |
| 1932-1933 | Cavalcade | A Farewell to Arms
When Ladies Meet |
| 1934 | The Merry Widow | The Gay Divorcee
The Affairs of Cellini |
| 1935 | The Dark Angel | The Lives of a Bengal Lancer
Top Hat |
| 1936 | Dodsworth | Anthony Adverse
The Great Ziegfeld Lloyd’s of London The Magnificent Brute Romeo and Juliet Winterset |
| 1937 | Lost Horizon | Conquest
A Damsel in Distress Dead End Every Day’s a Holiday The Life of Emile Zola Manhattan Merry-Go-Round The Prisoner of Zenda Souls at Sea Vogues of 1938 Wee Willie Winkie You’re a Sweetheart |
| 1938 | The Adventures of Robin Hood | The Adventures of Tom Sawyer
Alexander’s Ragtime Band Algiers Carefree The Goldwyn Follies Holiday If I Were King Mad About Music Marie Antoinette Merrily We Live |
| 1939 | Gone With the Wind | Beau Geste
Captain Fury First Love Love Affair Man of Conquest Mr. Smith Goes to Washington The Private Lives of Elizabeth and Essex The Rains Came Stagecoach The Wizard of Oz Wuthering Heights |
| 1940 | Black and White: Pride and Prejudice
Color: The Thief of Bagdad |
Black and White: Arise, My Love
Arizona The Boys from Syracuse Dark Command Foreign Correspondent Lillian Russell My Favorite Wife My Son, My Son Our Town Rebecca The Sea Hawk The Westerner Color: Bitter Sweet Down Argentine Way North West Mounted Police |
| 1941 | Black and White: How Green Was My Valley
Color: Blossoms in the Dust |
Black and White: Citizen Kane
The Flame of New Orleans Hold Back the Dawn Ladies in Retirement The Little Foxes Sergeant York Son of Monte Cristo Sundown That Hamilton Woman When Ladies Meet Color: Blood and Sand Louisiana Purchase |
| 1942 | Black and White: This Above All
Color: My Gal Sal |
Black and White: George Washington Slept Here
The Magnificent Ambersons The Pride of the Yankes Random Harvest The Shanghai Gesture Silver Queen The Spoilers Take a Letter, Darling The Talk of the Town Color: Arabian Nights Captains of the Clouds Jungle Book Reap the Wild Wind |
| 1943 | Black and White: The Song of Bernadette
Color: Phantom of the Opera |
Black and White: Five Graves to Cairo
Fight for Freedom Madame Curie Mission to Moscow The North Star Color: For Whom the Bell Tolls The Gang’s All Here This Is the Army Thousands Cheer |
| 1944 | Black and White: Gaslight
Color: Wilson |
Black and White: Address Unknown
The Adventures of Mark Twain Casanova Brown Laura No Time for Love Since You Went Away Step Lively Color: The Climax Cover Girl The Desert Song Kismet Lady in the Dark The Princess and the Pirate |
| 1945 | Black and White: Blood on the Sun
Color: Frenchman’s Creek |
Black and White: Experiment Perilous
The Keys of the Kingdom Love Letters The Picture of Dorian Gray Color: Leave Her to Heaven National Velvet San Antonio A Thousand and One Nights |
| 1946 | Black and White: Anna and the King of Siam
Color: The Yearling |
Black and White: Kitty
The Razor’s Edge Color: Caesar and Cleopatra Henry V |
| 1947 | Black and White: Great Expectations
Color: Black Narcissus |
Black and White: The Foxes of Harrow
Color: Life with Father |
| 1948 | Black and White: Hamlet
Color: The Red Shoes |
Black and White: Johnny Belinda
Color: Joan of Arc |
| 1949 | Black and White: The Heiress
Color: Little Women |
Black and White: Come to the Stable
Madame Bovary Color: Adventures of Don Juan Sarabond for Dead Lovers |
| 1950 | Black and White: Sunset Boulevard
Color: Samson and Delilah |
Black and White: All About Eve
The Red Danube Color: Annie Get Your Gun Destination Moon |
| 1951 | Black and White: A Streetcar Named Desire
Color: An American in Paris |
Black and White: Fourteen Hours
House on Telegraph Hill La Ronde Too Young to Kiss Color: David and Bathsheba On the Riviera Quo Vadis The Tales of Hoffmann |
| 1952 | Black and White: The Bad and the Beautiful
Color: Moulin Rouge |
Black and White: Carrie
My Cousin Rachel Rashomon Viva Zapata! Color: Hans Christian Andersen The Merry Widow The Quiet Man The Snows of Kilimanjaro |
| 1953 | Black and White: Julius Caesar
Color: The Robe |
Black and White: Martin Luther
The President’s Lady Roman Holiday Titanic Color: Knights of the Round Table Lili The Story of Three Loves Young Bess |
| 1954 | Black and White: On the Waterfront
Color: 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea |
Black and White: The Country Girl
Executive Suite Le Plaisir Sabrina Color: Brigadoon Désirée Red Garters A Star is Born |
| 1955 | Black and White: The Rose Tattoo
Color: Picnic |
Black and White: Blackboard Jungle
I’ll Cry Tomorrow The Man with the Golden Arm Marty Color: Daddy Long Legs Guys and Dolls Love is a Many-Splendored Thing To Catch a Thief |
| 1956 | Black and White: Somebody Up There Likes Me
Color: The King and I |
Black and White: Seven Samurai
The Proud and the Profane The Solid Gold Cadillac Teenage Rebel Color: Around the World in 80 Days Giant Lust for Life The Ten Commandments |
| 1957 | Sayonara | Funny Face
Les Girls Pal Joey Raintree County |
| 1958 | Gigi | Auntie Mame
Bell, Book and Candle A Certain Smile Vertigo |
| 1959 | Black and White: The Diary of Anne Frank
Color: Ben-Hur |
Black and White: Career
The Last Angry Man Some Like It Hot Suddenly, Last Summer Color: The Big Fisherman Journey to the Center of the Earth North by Northwest Pillow Talk |
| 1960 | Black and White: The Apartment
Color: Spartacus |
Black and White: The Facts of Life
Psycho Sons and Lovers Visit to a Small Planet Color: Cimarron It Started in Naples Pepe Sunrise at Campobello |
| 1961 | Black and White: The Hustler
Color: West Side Story |
Black and White: The Absent-Minded Professor
The Children’s Hour Judgment at Nuremberg La Dolce Vita Color: Breakfast at Tiffany’s El Cid Flower Drum Song Summer and Smoke |
| 1962 | Black and White: To Kill a Mockingbird
Color: Lawrence of Arabia |
Black and White: The Music Man
Mutiny on the Bounty That Touch of Mink The Wonderful World of the Brothers Grimm Color: Days of Wine and Roses The Longest Day Period of Adjustment The Pigeon That Took Rome |
| 1963 | Black and White: America America
Color: Cleopatra |
Black and White: 8 ½
Hud Love with the Proper Stranger Twilight of Honor Color: The Cardinal Come Blow Your Horn How the West Was Won Tom Jones |
| 1964 | Black and White: Zorba the Greek
Color: My Fair Lady |
Black and White: The Americanization of Emily
Hush… Hush, Sweet Charlotte The Night of the Iguana Seven Days in May Color: Becket Mary Poppins The Unsinkable Molly Brown What a Way to Go! |
| 1965 | Black and White: Ship of Fools
Color: Doctor Zhivago |
Black and White: King Rat
A Patch of Blue The Slender Thread The Spy Who Came in from the Cold Color: The Agony and the Ecstasy The Greatest Story Ever Told Inside Daisy Clover The Sound of Music |
| 1966 | Black and White: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Color: Fantastic Voyage |
Black and White: The Fortune Cookie
The Gospel According to St. Matthew Is Paris Burning? Mister Buddwing Color: Gambit Juliet of the Spirits The Oscar The Sand Pebbles |
| 1967 | Camelot | Doctor Dolittle
Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner The Taming of the Shrew Thoroughly Modern Millie |
| 1968 | Oliver! | The Shoes of the Fisherman
Star! 2001: A Space Odyssey War and Peace |
| 1969 | Hello, Dolly! | Anne of the Thousand Days
Gaily, Gaily Sweet Charity They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? |
| 1970 | Patton | Airport
The Molly Maguires Scrooge Tora! Tora! Tora! |
| 1971 | Nicholas and Alexandra | The Andromeda Strain
Bedknobs and Broomsticks Fiddler on the Roof Mary, Queen of Scots |
| 1972 | Cabaret | Lady Sings the Blues
The Poseidon Adventure Travels with My Aunt Young Winston |
| 1973 | The Sting | Brother Sun, Sister Moon
The Exorcist Tom Sawyer The Way We Were |
| 1974 | The Godfather Part II | Chinatown
Earthquake The Island at the Top of the World The Towering Inferno |
| 1975 | Barry Lyndon | The Hindenburg
The Man Who Would Be King Shampoo The Sunshine Boys |
| 1976 | All the President’s Men | The Incredible Sarah
The Last Tycoon Logan’s Run The Shootist |
| 1977 | Star Wars | Airport ‘77
Close Encounters of the Third Kind The Spy Who Loved Me The Turning Point |
| 1978 | Heaven Can Wait | The Brink’s Job
California Suite Interiors The Wiz |
| 1979 | All That Jazz | Alien
Apocalypse Now The China Syndrome Star Trek |
| 1980 | Tess | Coal Miner’s Daughter
The Elephant Man The Empire Strikes Back Kagemusha |
| 1981 | Raiders of the Lost Ark | The French Lieutenant’s Woman
Heaven’s Gate Ragtime Reds |
| 1982 | Gandhi | Annie
Blade Runner La traviata Victor Victoria |
| 1983 | Fanny and Alexander | Return of the Jedi
The Right Stuff Terms of Endearment Yentl |
| 1984 | Amadeus | The Cotton Club
The Natural A Passage to India 2010 |
| 1985 | Out of Africa | Brazil
The Color Purple Ran Witness |
| 1986 | A Room with a View | Aliens
The Color of Money Hannah and Her Sisters The Mission |
| 1987 | The Last Emperor | Empire of the Sun
Hope and Glory Radio Days The Untouchables |
| 1988 | Dangerous Liaisons | Beaches
Rain Man Tucker: The Man and His Dream Who Framed Roger Rabbit |
| 1989 | Batman | The Abyss
The Adventures of Baron Munchausen Driving Miss Daisy Glory |
| 1990 | Dick Tracy | Cyrano de Bergerac
Dances with Wolves The Godfather Part III Hamlet |
| 1991 | Bugsy | Barton Fink
The Fisher King Hook The Prince of Tides |
| 1992 | Howards End | Bram Stoker’s Dracula
Chaplin Toys Unforgiven |
| 1993 | Schindler’s List | Addams Family Values
The Age of Innocence Orlando The Remains of the Day |
| 1994 | The Madness of King George | Bullets Over Broadway
Forrest Gump Interview with the Vampire Legends of the Fall |
| 1995 | Restoration | Apollo 13
Babe A Little Princess Richard III |
| 1996 | The English Patient | The Birdcage
Evita Hamlet William Shakespeare’s Romeo + Juliet |
| 1997 | Titanic | Titanic
Gattaca Kundun L.A. Confidential Men in Black |
| 1998 | Shakespeare in Love | Elizabeth
Pleasantville Saving Private Ryan What Dreams May Come |
| 1999 | Sleepy Hollow | Anna and the King
The Cider House Rules The Talented Mr. Ripley Topsy-Turvy |
| 2000 | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Gladiator
How the Grinch Stole Christmas Quills Vatel |
| 2001 | Moulin Rouge! | Amélie
Gosford Park Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers |
| 2002 | Chicago | Frida
Gangs of New York The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Road to Perdition |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Girl with a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Seabiscuit |
| 2004 | The Aviator | Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events The Phantom of the Opera A Very Long Engagement |
| 2005 | Memoirs of a Geisha | Good Night, and Good Luck.
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix King Kong Pride & Prejudice |
| 2006 | Pan’s Labyrinth | Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest The Prestige |
| 2007 | Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street | American Gangster
Atonement The Golden Compass There Will Be Blood |
| 2008 | The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | Changeling
The Dark Knight The Duchess Revolutionary Road |
| 2009 | Avatar | The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Nine Sherlock Holmes The Young Victoria |
| 2010 | Alice in Wonderland | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception The King’s Speech True Grit |
| 2011 | Hugo | The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Midnight in Paris War Horse |
| 2012 | Lincoln | Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Les Misérables Life of Pi |
| 2013 | The Great Gatsby | American Hustle
Gravity Her 12 Years a Slave |
| 2014 | The Grand Budapest Hotel | The Imitation Game
Interstellar Into the Woods Mr. Turner |
| 2015 | Mad Max: Fury Road | Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl The Martian The Revenant |
ADG vs. the Oscars:
- 1996 (the first year they gave out awards) — The English Patient matched.
- 1997 — Titanic matched.
- 1998 — Shakespeare in Love did not match. (What Dreams May Come won ADG.)
- 1999 — Sleepy Hollow matched.
- 2000 — Crouching Tiger did not. (Gladiator won ADG, but that was back when it was a combined Period and Fantasy category.)
- 2001 — Moulin Rouge matched.
- 2002 — Chicago did not. (Two Towers won ADG, but that was before they separated the categories).
- 2003 — Return of the King matched.
- 2004 — The Aviator did not. (Lemony Snicket won ADG. But again, before they separated the categories.)
- 2005 — Memoirs of a Geisha matched.
Then they split the categories. And…
- 2006 — Pan’s Labyrinth matched.
- 2007 — Sweeney Todd did not. (ADG went There Will Be Blood.)
- 2008 — Benjamin Button matched.
- 2009 — Avatar matched.
- 2010 — Alice in Wonderland did not.
- 2011 — Hugo matched.
- 2012 — Lincoln did not. (ADG went Anna Karenina for Period.)
- 2013 — The Great Gatsby matched.
- 2014 — The Grand Budapest Hotel matched.
- 2015 — Mad Max: Fury Road matched.
So, in 20 years when the award was given out, ADG matched up 13 times. Of the seven that did not match:
- 1998 — the Best Picture winner won the category.
- 2000 — the Best Picture winner ended up winning ADG but losing the Oscar.
- 2002 — the Best Picture winner wins the category.
- 2004 — The Aviator (kind of a Best Picture favorite) wins the category.
And since they split the categories, ADG only missed three times. Here they are:
- 2007 — A Tim Burton film wins.
- 2010 — A Tim Burton film wins.
- 2012 — Anna Karenina probably should have won, but they decided to give Lincoln an award. That was one of the surprises of the night that year.
But really what this tells us is, ADG more than likely will match the Oscar winner.
And this year, here are your winners:
Contemporary went to La La Land
Fantasy went to Passengers
Period went to Hidden Figures
BAFTA gave their award to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
BFCA went to La La Land
Which doesn’t particularly help us much at all.
No matter how much you can reason your way through this category, it’s still wide open. This could be a real surprise on Oscar night. The bigger categories shouldn’t give us too many surprises, so we have to look to these categories as the ones where they might do something weird.
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Passengers came up out of nowhere here. The other four were expected, but that one was just a head scratcher.
Rankings:
5. Passengers — I know it won the ADG for Fantasy over Fantastic Beasts, but think about it this way — 6,000 people are gonna look at ballots. How many of them have even seen Passengers? And whether they have or they haven’t, what do they think about it? The perception is that it’s a huge bomb that didn’t do well. And the reviews were “meh.” Why would they vote for that? You know how it gets votes? “I heard that was great. People are raving about how they built that giant set.” If all they see when they look at this is negative connotations, how is that gonna get it to win? I can’t see this as being anything other than the fifth choice here. If it wins, then fuck me and I’m stupid. But barring that, I can’t see them giving this votes.
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them — Take everything I said about Passengers, and replace “bomb” with “Harry Potter.” They know this franchise. Not all of them have seen it, but they know what it is. They’re not in the castle that people recognize. This is a prequel. So what you’re left with is another Hobbit. They’ll nominate it and then it’ll immediately fall to the back of the category because no Harry Potter movie has ever won an Oscar. Not even for John Williams. They’ll think it’s fine but they won’t vote for it. It would be #5 if not for Passengers. There are no negative connotations. Just no real desire to vote for it. It has a BAFTA win, but that’s because they like voting for British stuff. This shouldn’t win.
3. Hail, Caesar! — It fits. Classical Hollywood studio era sets. But did the film come out too early to get the votes? That’s my concern. It won no precursors and managed no other nominations. It’ll catch a few stray votes, but will it get enough to actually win the category? It could happen, but it’s nowhere near the favorite. This is one of those rare categories where we actually go three deep and could have a winner.
2. Arrival — Best Picture nominee, eight overall nominations, a general liking across the board. No precursors, but it’s definitely got memorable sets and locations, which helps it. Plus, they might look to get it something. I know it’s not an exact comparison, but think about Lincoln. 12 nominations. They looked to get it something, and it won Production Design along with Actor. I’m not saying that will happen, but you have to figure something with as high a profile as this among the other nominees has to be considered more of a contender than a giant flop, a fantasy franchise that’s never won and a movie that was liked but came out in February and isn’t much remembered. So for now, second choice.
1. La La Land — It’s your probable Best Picture winner, it’s gonna win at least 6 Oscars. Probably closer to 8. This could easily be one of those. Plus, it won ADG and BFCA. People are gonna vote for it all over, and it will get votes here because while it is contemporary, it is a musical and people will remember that. I’m not saying it should win this category, I’m saying that at this moment in time, it is the favorite and the film most likely to win and the film you need to beat. It can happen very easily, and this will be one of the big categories for me in two weeks when we pick, but for now, this is the only film that can be considered a favorite based on any empirical data we have to go on.
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Tomorrow is Best Visual Effects.
