Every year, leading up to the Oscars, I break down every single category. It’s essentially a precursor to my picks. I explain all the stuff that needs to be explained in detail, so when the time comes to make my picks, I can refer to it as a shorthand.
In the articles, I’ll go over each category’s history, show previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees, talk about the guild history, if it’s important, what the guilds went with this year, whether that means anything for that particular category — all the background you need to know to make an informed decision. And then, once that’s all done, I’ll rank the nominees in that category in order of their likelihood to win, based on how I see it at the present.
The only difference between this year and previous years is that this year, I’ll be doing only one category a day instead of multiple categories. This is so I can take more time with each category and not stuff a bunch into a single article for information overload, and, simply, so I don’t have to do as much work. Though it is also easier this way. One category, one day.
Today, we do Best Adapted Screenplay. Which… yeah.
|
Year |
Best Adapted Screenplay Winners |
Other Nominees |
|
1927-1928 |
Seventh Heaven |
Glorious Betsy The Jazz Singer |
|
1928-1929 |
The Patriot |
The Cop In Old Arizona The Last of Mrs. Cheyney The Leatherneck Our Dancing Daughters Sal of Singapore Skyscraper The Valiant A Woman of Affairs Wonder of Women |
|
1929-1930 |
The Big House |
All Quiet on the Western Front Disraeli The Divorcee Street of Chance |
|
1930-1931 |
Cimarron |
The Criminal Code Holiday Little Caesar Skippy |
|
1931-1932 |
Bad Girl |
Arrowsmith Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde |
|
1932-1933 |
Little Women |
Lady for a Day State Fair |
|
1934 |
It Happened One Night |
The Thin Man Viva Villa! |
|
1935 |
The Informer |
The Lives of a Bengal Lancer Mutiny on the Bounty Captain Blood |
|
1936 |
The Story of Louis Pasteur |
After the Thin Man Dodsworth Mr. Deeds Goes to Town My Man Godfrey |
|
1937 |
The Life of Emile Zola |
The Awful Truth Captains Courageous Stage Door A Star is Born |
|
1938 |
Pygmalion |
Boys Town The Citadel Four Daughters You Can’t Take It With You |
|
1939 |
Gone With the Wind |
Goodbye, Mr. Chips Mr. Smith Goes to Washington Ninothcka Wuthering Heights |
|
1940 |
The Philadelphia Story |
The Grapes of Wrath Kitty Foyle The Long Voyage Home Rebecca |
|
1941 |
Here Comes Mr. Jordan |
Hold Back the Dawn How Green Was My Valley The Little Foxes The Maltese Falcon |
|
1942 |
Mrs. Miniver |
49th Parallel The Pride of the Yankees Random Harvest The Talk of the Town |
|
1943 |
Casablanca |
Holy Matriomy The More the Merrier The Song of Bernadette Watch on the Rhine |
|
1944 |
Going My Way |
Double Indemnity Gaslight Laura Meet Me in St. Louis |
|
1945 |
The Lost Weekend |
Mildred Pierce Pride of the Marines The Story of G.I. Joe A Tree Grows in Brooklyn |
|
1946 |
The Best Years of Our Lives |
Anna and the King of Siam Brief Encounter The Killers Rome, Open City |
|
1947 |
Miracle on 34th Street |
Boomerang Crossfire Gentleman’s Agreement Great Expectations |
|
1948 |
The Treasure of the Siera Madre |
A Foreign Affair Johnny Belinda The Search The Snake Pit |
|
1949 |
A Letter to Three Wives |
All the King’s Men Bicycle Thieves Champion The Fallen Idol |
|
1950 |
All About Eve |
The Asphalt Jungle Born Yesterday Broken Arrow Father of the Bride |
|
1951 |
A Place in the Sun |
The African Queen Detective Story La Ronde A Streetcar Named Desire |
|
1952 |
The Bad and the Beautiful |
5 Fingers High Noon The Man in the White Suit The Quiet Man |
|
1953 |
From Here to Eternity |
The Cruel Sea Lili Roman Holiday Shane |
|
1954 |
The Country Girl |
The Caine Mutiny Rear Window Sabrina Seven Brides for Seven Brothers |
|
1955 |
Marty |
Bad Day at Black Rock Blackboard Jungle East of Eden Love Me or Leave Me |
|
1956 |
Around the World in 80 Days |
Baby Doll Friendly Persuasion Giant Lust for Life |
|
1957 |
The Bridge on the River Kwai |
Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison Peyton Place Sayonara 12 Angry Men |
|
1958 |
Gigi |
Cat on a Hot Tin Roof The Horse’s Mouth I Want to Live! Separate Tables |
|
1959 |
Room at the Top |
Anatomy of a Murder Ben-Hur The Nun’s Story Some Like It Hot |
|
1960 |
Elmer Gantry |
Inherit the Wind Sons and Lovers The Sundowners Tunes of Glory |
|
1961 |
Judgment at Nuremberg |
Breakfast at Tiffany’s The Guns of Navarone The Hustler West Side Story |
|
1962 |
To Kill a Mockingbird |
David and Lisa Lawrence of Arabia Lolita The Miracle Worker |
|
1963 |
Tom Jones |
Captain Newman, M.D. Hud Lilies of the Field Sundays and Cybele |
|
1964 |
Becket |
Dr. Strangelove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Mary Poppins My Fair Lady Zorba the Greek |
|
1965 |
Doctor Zhivago |
Cat Ballou The Collector Ship of Fools A Thousand Clowns |
|
1966 |
A Man for All Seasons |
Alfie The Professionals The Russians are Coming, the Russians are Coming Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? |
|
1967 |
In the Heat of the Night |
Cool Hand Luke The Graduate In Cold Blood Ulysses |
|
1968 |
The Lion in Winter |
The Odd Couple Oliver! Rachel, Rachel Rosemary’s Baby |
|
1969 |
Midnight Cowboy |
Anne of the Thousand Days Goodbye, Columbus They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Z |
|
1970 |
MASH |
Airport I Never Sang for My Father Lovers and Other Strangers Women in Love |
|
1971 |
The French Connection |
A Clockwork Orange The Conformist The Garden of the Finzi Continis The Last Picture Show |
|
1972 |
The Godfather |
Cabaret The Emigrants Pete ‘n’ Tillie Sounder |
|
1973 |
The Exorcist |
The Last Detail The Paper Chase Paper Moon Serpico |
|
1974 |
The Godfather Part II |
The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz Lenny Murder on the Orient Express Young Frankenstein |
|
1975 |
One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest |
Barry Lyndon The Man Who Would Be King Profumo di donna The Sunshine Boys |
|
1976 |
All the President’s Men |
Bound for Glory Fellini’s Casanova The Seven Per-Cent Solution Voyage of the Damned |
|
1977 |
Julia |
Equus I Never Promised You a Rose Garden Oh, God! That Obscure Object of Desire |
|
1978 |
Midnight Express |
Bloodbrothers California Suite Heaven Can Wait Same Time, Next Year |
|
1979 |
Kramer vs. Kramer |
Apocalypse Now La Cage aux Folles A Little Romance Norma Rae |
|
1980 |
Ordinary People |
Breaker Morant Coal Miner’s Daughter The Elephant Man The Stunt Man |
|
1981 |
On Golden Pond |
The French Lieutenant’s Woman Pennies from Heaven Prince of the City Ragtime |
|
1982 |
Missing |
Das Boot Sophie’s Choice The Verdict Victor/Victoria |
|
1983 |
Terms of Endearment |
Betrayal The Dresser Educating Rita Reuben, Reuben |
|
1984 |
Amadeus |
Greystroke: The Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes The Killing Fields A Passage to India A Soldier’s Story |
|
1985 |
Out of Africa |
The Color Purple Kiss of the Spider Woman Prizzi’s Honor The Trip to Bountiful |
|
1986 |
A Room with a View |
Children of a Lesser God The Color of Money Crimes of the Heart Stand by Me |
|
1987 |
The Last Emperor |
The Dead Fatal Attraction Full Metal Jacket My Life as a Dog |
|
1988 |
Dangerous Liaisons |
The Accidental Tourist Gorillas in the Mist: The Story of Dian Fossey Little Dorrit The Unbearable Lightness of Being |
|
1989 |
Driving Miss Daisy |
Born on the Fourth of July Enemies, a Love Story Field of Dreams My Left Foot |
|
1990 |
Dances with Wolves |
Awakenings Goodfellas The Grifters Reversal of Fortune |
|
1991 |
The Silence of the Lambs |
Europa Europa Fried Green Tomatoes JFK The Prince of Tides |
|
1992 |
Howards End |
Enchanted April The Player A River Runs Through It Scent of a Woman |
|
1993 |
Schindler’s List |
The Age of Innocence In the Name of the Father The Remains of the Day Shadowlands |
|
1994 |
Forrest Gump |
The Madness of King George Nobody’s Fool Quiz Show The Shawshank Redemption |
|
1995 |
Sense and Sensibility |
Apollo 13 Babe Leaving Las Vegas Il Postino |
|
1996 |
Sling Blade |
The Crucible The English Patient Hamlet Traisnpotting |
|
1997 |
L.A. Confidential |
Donnie Brasco The Sweet Hereafter Wag the Dog The Wings of the Dove |
|
1998 |
Gods and Monsters |
Out of Sight Primary Colors A Simple Plan The Thin Red Line |
|
1999 |
The Cider House Rules |
Election The Green Mile The Insider The Talented Mr. Ripley |
|
2000 |
Traffic |
Chocolat Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon O Brother Where Art Thou? Wonder Boys |
|
2001 |
A Beautiful Mind |
Ghost World In the Bedroom The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Shrek |
|
2002 |
The Pianist |
About a Boy Adaptation. Chicago The Hours |
|
2003 |
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
American Splendor City of God Mystic River Seabiscuit |
|
2004 |
Sideways |
Before Sunset Finding Neverland Million Dollar Baby The Motorcycle Diaries |
|
2005 |
Brokeback Mountain |
Capote The Constant Gardener A History of Violence Munich |
|
2006 |
The Departed |
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan Children of Men Little Children Notes on a Scandal |
|
2007 |
No Country for Old Men |
Atonement Away from Her The Diving Bell and the Butterfly There Will Be Blood |
|
2008 |
Slumdog Millionaire |
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Doubt Frost/Nixon The Reader |
|
2009 |
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire |
District 9 An Education In the Loop Up in the Air |
|
2010 |
The Social Network |
127 Hours Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter’s Bone |
|
2011 |
The Descendants |
The Ides of March Hugo Moneyball Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy |
|
2012 |
Argo |
Beasts of the Southern Wild Life of Pi Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook |
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Before we get into my rankings, here are all the times the Best Picture winner hasn’t won Best Screenplay (this is straight from last year):
- 2011, The Artist loses to Midnight in Paris.
- 2004, Million Dollar Baby loses to Sideways.
- 2002, Chicago loses to The Pianist.
- 2000, Gladiator loses to Almost Famous.
- 1997, Titanic isn’t even nominated.
- 1996, The English Patient loses to Sling Blade.
- 1995, Braveheart loses to The Usual Suspects.
- 1992, Unforgiven loses to The Crying Game.
- 1986, Platoon loses to Hannah and Her Sisters.
- 1978, The Deer Hunter loses to Coming Home.
- 1976, Rocky loses to Network.
- 1968, Oliver! loses to The Lion in Winter.
- 1965, The Sound of Music isn’t even nominated.
- 1964, My Fair Lady loses to Becket.
- 1962, Lawrence of Arabia loses to To Kill a Mockingbird.
- 1961, West Side Story loses to Judgment at Nuremberg.
- 1959, Ben-Hur loses to Room at the Top.
- 1952, The Greatest Show on Earth isn’t even nominated.
- 1949, All the King’s Men loses to A Letter to Three Wives.
- 1948, Hamlet isn’t even nominated.
- 1947, Gentleman’s Agreement loses to Miracle on 34th Street.
- 1941, How Green Was My Valley loses to Here Comes Mr. Jordan.
- 1940, Rebecca loses to The Philadelphia Story.
- 1938, You Can’t Take It With You loses to Pygmalion.
- 1936, The Great Ziegfeld isn’t even nominated. (Though there was only one Screenplay category. Also, the nominees were The Story of Louis Pasteur, After the Thin Man, Dodsworth, Mr. Deeds Goes to Town and My Man Godfrey. That’s awesome.)
- 1935, Mutiny on the Bounty loses to The Informer.
- 1932-1933, Cavalcade isn’t even nominated.
- 1931-1932, Grand Hotel isn’t even nominated.
- 1929-1930, All Quiet on the Western Front loses to The Big House.
- 1928-1929, The Broadway Melody isn’t even nominated.
- 1927-1928, Wings isn’t even nominated.
So, breaking them down — two of them are Woody Allen. I get that. Alexander Payne, I get that. Chicago, Oliver!, Sound of Music, My Fair Lady, West Side Story – musicals. Makes sense. Kinda surprising it was nominated. Most of the rest make sense. When you see that Network, To Kill a Mockingbird, The Usual Suspects and The Crying Game beat Best Picture winners — it’s not surprising. And leaving off everything pre-1950 (since that stuff isn’t as meaningful here), that only leaves like five left that I haven’t mentioned in that stuff up there. One is The English Patient losing, which — I get. Titanic not being nominated — clearly. The Greatest Show on Earth not being nominated — should have been the case. Deer Hunter losing — surprising. But not to most people. I kinda get it, I just love Deer Hunter. And Ben-Hur losing — not surprising.
I’ll also say that it’s just Best Screenplay. It could be Adapted or Original. The point there is — typically your Best Picture winner also wins Best Screenplay. If Gravity wins this year, we’ll get why it didn’t win Best Screenplay (outside of the fact that it wasn’t nominated). But, the other contender is in this category. So right there, I think we understand who the favorite is.
Rankings:
5. Before Midnight – It’s a lovely film, but the nomination is the reward. The previous film was nominated, and it didn’t have a shot that year. This is your #5, because it won’t get enough votes to even make a dent for the win. I think we all know this, and I won’t waste time explaining further. It’s #5.
4. Captain Phillips – 2-4 were tough for me. Maybe this is #3 now that it won the WGA, but even then, 12 Years wasn’t eligible for that, so it’s kind of skewed. Still, this could get some votes, but I can’t see it winning. This breakdown seems real simple to me — a clear winner, a film that could make some noise, and the passionate wild card film. This is just below those. Respected, a well-deserved nomination, but it won’t get enough votes to win. This film is clearly gonna be shut out of the Oscars. Maybe a Sound or Editing win that would surprise people, but it’s clearly gonna be the six nomination shut out film. We all know that’s happening. The second he got left off the Directors list, it was happening.
3. The Wolf of Wall Street – This has support. It might get some votes. Then again, it still was hated by older members of the Academy, so it won’t win. I just think certain people will vote for this and it will get a few votes. Maybe it should be #4 and not #3, but either way, it shouldn’t win and that’s my only goal right now. Likelihood to win. It’s no higher than #3. It’s not gonna happen. It just won’t.
2. Philomena – I’d watch out for this one, if they really backlash against 12 Years. The Brits have this one’s back, the script was beautiful… this could be your upset winner, if there is one. I don’t think there will be one, but if it’s anything, it’ll probably be this.
1. 12 Years a Slave – This is your winner. This category is so cut and dried it’s not funny. How can you consider anything else the favorite to win at this point? There isn’t even competition. If this isn’t your eventual winner, this is still the favorite up until that moment. I can’t see anything else beating this. It dwarfs all other nominees.
- – - – - – - – - -
That was easy. Tomorrow is Original Screenplay, which at least has some openness to it. I hope it doesn’t, but it does.
