Every year, leading up to the Oscars, I break down every single category. It’s essentially a precursor to my picks. I explain all the stuff that needs to be explained in detail, so when the time comes to make my picks, I can refer to it as a shorthand.
In the articles, I’ll go over each category’s history, show previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees, talk about the guild history, if it’s important, what the guilds went with this year, whether that means anything for that particular category — all the background you need to know to make an informed decision. And then, once that’s all done, I’ll rank the nominees in that category in order of their likelihood to win, based on how I see it at the present.
The only difference between this year and previous years is that this year, I’ll be doing only one category a day instead of multiple categories. This is so I can take more time with each category and not stuff a bunch into a single article for information overload, and, simply, so I don’t have to do as much work. Though it is also easier this way. One category, one day.
Today is Best Original Screenplay. You know, the other screenplay category.
|
Year |
Best Original Screenplay Winners |
Other Nominees |
|
1940 |
The Great McGinty |
Angels over Broadway Dr. Erlich’s Magic Bullet Foreign Correspondent The Great Dictator |
|
1941 |
Citizen Kane |
The Devil and Miss Jones Sergeant York Tall, Dark and Handsome Tom, Dick and Harry |
|
1942 |
Woman of the Year |
One of Our Aircraft Is Missing Road to Morocco Wake Island The War Against Mrs. Hadley |
|
1943 |
Princess O’Rourke |
Air Force In Which We Serve The North Star So Proudly We Hail! |
|
1944 |
Wilson |
Hail the Conquering Hero The Miracle of Morgan’s Creek Two Girls and a Sailor Wing and a Prayer |
|
1945 |
Marie-Louise |
Dillinger Music for Millions Salty O’Rourke What Next, Corporal Hargrove? |
|
1946 |
The Seventh Veil |
The Blue Dahlia Children of Paradise Notorious Road to Utopia |
|
1947 |
The Bachelor and the Bobby-Soxer |
Body and Soul A Double Life Monsieur Verdoux Shoeshine |
|
1948 |
No Award Given. |
No category. |
|
1949 |
Battleground |
Jolson Sings Again Paisan Passport to Pimlico The Quiet One |
|
1950 |
Sunset Boulevard |
Adam’s Rib Caged The Men No Way Out |
|
1951 |
An American in Paris |
Ace in the Hole David and Bathsheba Go for Broke! The Well |
|
1952 |
The Lavender Hill Mob |
The Atomic City The Sound Barrier Pat and Mike Viva Zapata! |
|
1953 |
Titanic |
The Band Wagon The Desert Rats The Naked Spur Take the High Ground! |
|
1954 |
On the Waterfront |
The Barefoot Contessa Genevieve The Glenn Miller Story Knock on Wood |
|
1955 |
Interrupted Melody |
The Court-Martial of Billy Mitchell It’s Always Fair Weather Mr. Hulot’s Holiday The Seven Little Foys |
|
1956 |
The Red Balloon |
The Bold and the Brave Julie La Strada The Ladykillers |
|
1957 |
Designing Woman |
Funny Face Man of a Thousand Faces The Tin Star I Vitelloni |
|
1958 |
The Defiant Ones |
The Goddess Houseboat The Sheepman Teacher’s Pet |
|
1959 |
Pillow Talk |
The 400 Blows North by Northwest Operation Petticoat Wild Strawberries |
|
1960 |
The Apartment |
The Angry Silence The Facts of Life Hiroshima Mon Amour Never on Sunday |
|
1961 |
Splendor in the Grass |
Ballad of a Soldier La Dolce Vita General della Rovere Lover Come Back |
|
1962 |
Divorce, Italian Style |
Freud Last Year at Marienbad That Touch of Mink Through a Glass Darkly |
|
1963 |
How the West Was Won |
8 ½ America, America The Four Days of Naples Love with the Proper Stranger |
|
1964 |
Father Goose |
A Hard Day’s Night One Potato, Two Potato The Organizer That Man from Rio |
|
1965 |
Darling |
Casanova 70 Those Magnificent Men in Their Flying Machines The Train The Umbrellas of Cherbourg |
|
1966 |
A Man and a Woman |
Blowup The Fortune Cookie Khartoum The Naked Prey |
|
1967 |
Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner |
Bonnie and Clyde Divorce American Style La Guerre Est Finie Two for the Road |
|
1968 |
The Producers |
2001: A Space Odyssey The Battle of Algiers Faces Hot Millions |
|
1969 |
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid |
Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice The Damned Easy Rider The Wild Bunch |
|
1970 |
Patton |
Five Easy Pieces Joe Love Story My Night at Maud’s |
|
1971 |
The Hospital |
Investigation of a Citizen Above Suspicion Klute Summer of ‘42 Sunday Bloody Sunday |
|
1972 |
The Candidate |
The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie Lady Sings the Blues Murmur of the Heart Young Winston |
|
1973 |
The Sting |
American Graffiti Cries and Whispers Save the Tiger A Touch of Class |
|
1974 |
Chinatown |
Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore The Conversation Day for Night Harry and Tonto |
|
1975 |
Dog Day Afternoon |
Amarcord And Now My Love Lies My Father Told Me Shampoo |
|
1976 |
Network |
Cousin, cousine The Front Rocky Seven Beauties |
|
1977 |
Annie Hall |
The Goodbye Girl The Late Show Star Wars The Turning Point |
|
1978 |
Coming Home |
Autumn Sonata The Deer Hunter Interiors An Unmarried Woman |
|
1979 |
Breaking Away |
All That Jazz …And Justice for All The China Syndrome Manhattan |
|
1980 |
Melvin and Howard |
Brubaker Fame Mon oncle d’Amerique Private Benjamin |
|
1981 |
Chariots of Fire |
Absence of Malice Arthur Atlantic City Reds |
|
1982 |
Gandhi |
Diner E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial An Officer and a Gentleman Tootsie |
|
1983 |
Tender Mercies |
The Big Chill Fanny and Alexander Silkwood WarGames |
|
1984 |
Places in the Heart |
Beverly Hills Cop Broadway Danny Rose El Norte Splash |
|
1985 |
Witness |
Back to the Future Brazil The Official Story The Purple Rose of Cairo |
|
1986 |
Hannah and Her Sisters |
Crocodile Dundee My Beautiful Laundrette Platoon Salvador |
|
1987 |
Moonstruck |
Au revoir, les enfants Broadcast News Hope and Glory Radio Days |
|
1988 |
Rain Man |
Big Bull Durham A Fish Called Wanda Running on Empty |
|
1989 |
Dead Poets Society |
Crimes and Misdemeanors Do the Right Thing Sex, Lies and Videotape When Harry Met Sally… |
|
1990 |
Ghost |
Alice Avalon Green Card Metropolitan |
|
1991 |
Thelma & Louise |
Boyz N the Hood Bugsy The Fisher King Grand Canyon |
|
1992 |
The Crying Game |
Husbands and Wives Lorenzo’s Oil Passion Fish Unforgiven |
|
1993 |
The Piano |
Dave In the Line of Fire Philadelphia Sleepless in Seattle |
|
1994 |
Pulp Fiction |
Bullets Over Broadway Four Weddings and a Funeral Heavenly Creatures Three Colors: Red |
|
1995 |
The Usual Suspects |
Braveheart Mighty Aphrodite Nixon Toy Story |
|
1996 |
Fargo |
Jerry Maguire Lone Star Secrets & Lies Shine |
|
1997 |
Good Will Hunting |
As Good as It Gets Boogie Nights Deconstructing Harry The Full Monty |
|
1998 |
Shakespeare in Love |
Bulworth Life is Beautiful Saving Private Ryan The Truman Show |
|
1999 |
American Beauty |
Being John Malkovich Magnolia The Sixth Sense Topsy-Turvy |
|
2000 |
Almost Famous |
Billy Elliot Erin Brockovich Gladiator You Can Count on Me |
|
2001 |
Gosford Park |
Amélie Memento Monster’s Ball The Royal Tenenbaums |
|
2002 |
Talk to Her |
Far from Heaven Gangs of New York My Big Fat Greek Wedding Y tu mama también |
|
2003 |
Lost in Translation |
The Barbarian Invasions Dirty Pretty Things Finding Nemo In America |
|
2004 |
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
The Aviator Hotel Rwanda The Incredibles Vera Drake |
|
2005 |
Crash |
Good Night, and Good Luck Match Point The Squid and the Whale Syriana |
|
2006 |
Little Miss Sunshine |
Babel Letters from Iwo Jima Pan’s Labyrinth The Queen |
|
2007 |
Juno |
Lars and the Real Girl Michael Clayton Ratatouille The Savages |
|
2008 |
Milk |
Frozen River Happy-Go-Lucky In Bruges Wall-E |
|
2009 |
The Hurt Locker |
Inglourious Basterds The Messenger A Serious Man Up |
|
2010 |
The King’s Speech |
Another Year The Fighter Inception The Kids Are All Right |
|
2011 |
Midnight in Paris |
The Artist Bridesmaids Margin Call A Separation |
|
2012 |
Django Unchained |
Amour Flight Moonrise Kingdom Zero Dark Thirty |
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
I don’t really have much to add. Typically your Best Picture winner also wins Best Screenplay. And since there’s only one other major contender here, that’ll get a bit of a boost, but even then, you can actually consider four of the five films here legit choices for the win. I’ll be really interested to see how this shakes out.
The category itself is pretty good. I’d have had Llewyn Davis on here, along with Prisoners and About Time, but only the first two do I think were actually snubbed. I’m mostly cool with this category, though I think the Woody Allen nomination is a waste.
Rankings:
5. Blue Jasmine – It’s #5. He doesn’t win Screenplay unless his film is nominated for Best Picture, and now there’s that whole scandal or whatever it is that’s gonna prevent him from getting any support. It’s not happening. Clearly #5.
4. Dallas Buyers Club – I rank this #4, but should I? I don’t know. It got a Picture and Editing nomination, which means there’s a lot of support for it. Maybe this does get enough votes to make some noise. I don’t know. I can’t see it being considered a favorite over the first two for sure. Maybe it’s a third choice? I’m still not to sure how read the next one just yet. I’ll leave it fourth for now, but will seriously consider this for the win next week.
3. Nebraska – My intrigue with this one stems from whether or not they know this is not Alexander Payne who wrote it. Will that matter to them? He’s won Screenplay for his last two films, and they seem to just vote for him regardless. But this film is smaller than The Descendants, it’s quieter, and most importantly, it’s not him. So do they vote for it regardless because he directed it? I know it got the Director and Picture nominations, which leads me to believe there is support, but is there as much support as his previous films? I can’t tell how many votes this will get. I feel like the writers’ names are on the ballot, so if that’s the case, I can leave this third, and possibly move it down to fourth, but if not, will people know it wasn’t him? I really have no idea at the moment, so I’ll leave it third, since the other two feel like they’d have more momentum going in. But I’m leaving this one in the race until the very end. Because you never know.
2. American Hustle – I had this at #1 for a while, but I bumped it down just because support for the film is deflating a bit. This seems destined to go the Silver Linings route — lots of nominations, they think it’s more of an acting showcase than anything else, and it loses Screenplay. Though, granted, last year’s Adapted Screenplay category was insane (Argo, Silver Linings, Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Lincoln), and this one makes it much easier for this to win, but unless people are gonna sweep vote it, is it the winner here? I see this being a potential logjam category with a surprise winner coming out, since Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, this and Her all have a lot of support and could all fight it out in a tight race. If this is gonna make a play for Best Picture, it might need this (and maybe Editing). So this is a swing category, if that’s going to happen. I still won’t consider this the favorite, but I also don’t think the favorite is a guaranteed lock to win the category, as much as we’d like to see it. I don’t know… I just… have a weird feeling about it. I’m not counting this out because of subjective opinions.
1. Her – This is your favorite. It’s been beloved from the start, it’s won a bunch of Screenplay awards at previous shows, it won the WGA over this exact same category… I’ll keep it the favorite. But I honestly think American Hustle could beat it, and if the vote gets tight, possibly Nebraska or Dallas Buyers Club. Possibly. But maybe I’m getting nervous for no reason. I was worried about Quentin last year, and he pulled through. So maybe Spike will pull through as well. He has a lot of support. I’ll leave him the favorite.
- – - – - – - – - – -
So that’s Screenplay categories down. Now we get into the fun stuff. The acting categories.
