AFI announced their top ten films this morning.
They’re not as important as NBR to me, but I do like looking at what they choose. Typically it’s a populist kind of list, probably more indicative of what the eventual Best Picture nominees will be than anything else. And always with the one trendy choice or two thrown in. I didn’t even have to look to know that some combination of Black Panther, A Quiet Place and A Star Is Born were gonna be on there. They’re obvious in those ways.
But, last year they had 7 Best Picture nominees on their list. 2016, they had 7. 2015 they had 6. 2014 they had 7. 2013, 7. So yeah… chances are at least 60% of this list will be your Best Picture nominees. So let’s see what they chose.
AFI Top Ten Films
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Eighth Grade
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born
Special Award
Roma
First off, I wonder if Roma got a special award because it’s Netflix and not strictly “theatrical.”
But that aside, funny story: right before lunch I said to the staff, “Did they announce AFI yet?” And they said yes. So I said, “I bet I can tell you at least half that list.” And proceeded to rattle off Roma, Star Is Born, Quiet Place, Mary Poppins, Green Book, Beale Street, Black Panther and Eighth Grade. If I thought for a second, I probably could have gotten BlacKkKlansman too. Favourite I never would have guessed. But man, are they predictable.
But like I said — 6/7 out of ten, assuming they even get to ten. More than likely, the majority of your Best Picture list is here right now. To go through:
Roma, Star Is Born, Mary Poppins, Beale Street, Green Book all seem very likely. So that’s five. I will say it again, please don’t nominate Black Panther for Best Picture. First Reformed is hitting everything, so once I see it hit PGA, that might be six. The Favourite — I’m shocked they put it on. But I’d love if that got nominated for Best Picture. Quiet Place… it might get PGA, doubt it gets actually nominated. But we’ll see. Eighth Grade, possible PGA, extreme long shot for Best Picture nomination. BlacKkKlansman… I’m rooting for it. We’ll see what it gets and what it doesn’t.
Still, not totally off base from what I’ve expected and not really introducing any major alternative players from what we’ve seen so far. If anything it’s highlighting to me just how week the year’s been. Though at this point: The Mule hasn’t dropped, Vice hasn’t dropped, I don’t know if On the Basis of Sex is any good. But all the other stuff seems to have either died on the vine or is waiting for the real stuff to start before they make themselves known.
But to this point — I’m surprised Widows hasn’t gotten more play. First Man’s gone nowhere, but I kind of expected that. Bohemian Rhapsody never felt like a real player in the big race. The Front Runner’s gone nowhere, which was half expected. Honestly, yeah, a lot of this makes sense because the options this year are so slim. I’m still wondering what the hell my top ten list is gonna look like. But I also say that every year.
Anyway, that’s AFI. Tomorrow I think we get our first end of year list, then Thursday we get the Globes nominations. So that should be our first official precursor of the season. And everyone else will go and overreact. Just like every year.
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