So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
Today is Best Supporting Actress. Which we thought could be interesting, but seems pretty straightforward yet again.
| Year | Best Supporting Actress Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1936 | Gale Sondergaard, Anthony Adverse | Beulah Bondi, The Gorgeous Hussy
Alice Brady, My Man Godfrey Bonita Granville, These Three Maria Ouspenskaya, Dodsworth |
| 1937 | Alice Brady, In Old Chicago | Andrea Leeds, Stage Door
Anne Shirley, Stella Dallas Claire Trevor, Dead End Dame May Whitty, Night Must Fall |
| 1938 | Fay Bainter, Jezebel | Beulah Bondi, Of Human Hearts
Billie Burke, Merrily We Live Spring Byington, You Can’t Take It With You Miliza Korjus, The Great Waltz |
| 1939 | Hattie McDaniel, Gone With the Wind | Olivia de Havilland, Gone With the Wind
Geraldine Fitzgerald, Wuthering Heights Edna May Oliver, Drums Along the Mohawk Maria Ouspenskaya, Love Affair |
| 1940 | Jane Darwell, The Grapes of Wrath | Judith Anderson, Rebecca
Ruth Hussey, The Philadelphia Story Barbara O’Neil, All This, and Heaven Too Marjorie Rambeau, Primrose Path |
| 1941 | Mary Astor, The Great Lie | Sarah Allgood, How Green Was My Valley
Patricia Collinge, The Little Foxes Teresa Wright, The Little Foxes Margaret Wycherly, Sergeant York |
| 1942 | Teresa Wright, Mrs. Miniver | Gladys Cooper, Now, Voyager
Susan Peters, Random Harvest Agnes Moorehead, The Magnificent Ambersons Dame May Whitty, Mrs. Miniver |
| 1943 | Katrina Paxinou, For Whom the Bell Tolls | Gladys Cooper, The Song of Bernadette
Paulette Goddard, So Proudly We Hail! Anne Revere, The Song of Bernadette Lucille Watson, Watch on the Rhine |
| 1944 | Ethel Barrymore, None But the Lonely Heart | Jennifer Jones, Since You Went Away
Angela Lansbury, Gaslight Aline MacMahon, Dragon Seed Agnes Moorehead, Mrs. Parkington |
| 1945 | Anne Revere, National Velvet | Eve Arden, Mildred Pierce
Ann Blyth, Mildred Pierce Angela Lansbury, The Picture of Dorian Grey Joan Lorring, The Corn is Green |
| 1946 | Anne Baxter, The Razor’s Edge | Ethel Barrymore, The Spiral Staircase
Lillian Gish, Duel in the Sun Flora Robson, Saratoga Trunk Gale Sondergaard, Anna and the King of Siam |
| 1947 | Celeste Holm, Gentleman’s Agreement | Ethel Barrymore, The Paradine Case
Gloria Grahame, Crossfire Marjoria Main, The Egg and I Anne Revere, Gentleman’s Agreement |
| 1948 | Claire Trevor, Key Largo | Barbara Bel Geddes, I Remember Mama
Ellen Corby, I Remember Mama Agnes Moorehead, Johnny Belinda Jean Simmons, Hamlet |
| 1949 | Mercedes McCambridge, All the King’s Men | Ethel Barrymore, Pinky
Celeste Holm, Come to the Stable Elsa Lanchester, Come to the Stable Ethel Waters, Pinky |
| 1950 | Josephine Hull, Harvey | Hope Emerson, Caged
Celeste Holm, All About Eve Susan Olson, Sunset Boulevard Thelma Ritter, All About Eve |
| 1951 | Kim Hunter, A Streetcar Named Desire | Joan Blondell, The Blue Veil
Mildred Dunnock, Death of a Salesman Lee Grant, Detective Story Thelma Ritter, The Mating Season |
| 1952 | Gloria Grahame, The Bad and the Beautiful | Jean Hagan, Singin’ in the Rain
Collette Marchand, Moulin Rouge Terry Moore, Come Back, Little Sheba Thelma Ritter, With a Song in My Heart |
| 1953 | Donna Reed, From Here to Eternity | Grace Kelly, Mogambo
Geraldine Page, Hondo Marjorie Rambeau, Torch Song Thelma Ritter, Pickup on South Street |
| 1954 | Eva Marie Saint, On the Waterfront | Nina Foch, Executive Suite
Katy Jurado, Executive Suite Jan Sterling, The High and the Mighty Claire Trevor, The High and the Mighty |
| 1955 | Jo Van Fleet, East of Eden | Betsy Blair, Marty
Peggy Lee, Pete Kelly’s Blues Marisa Pavan, The Rose Tattoo Natalie Wood, Rebel Without a Cause |
| 1956 | Dorothy Malone, Written on the Wind | Midred Dunnock, Baby Doll
Eileen Heckart, The Bad Seed Mercedes McCambridge, Giant Patty McCormack, The Bad Seed |
| 1957 | Miyoshi Umeki, Sayonara | Carolyn Jones, The Bachelor Party
Elsa Lanchester, Witness for the Prosecution Hope Lange, Peyton Place Diane Varsi, Peyton Place |
| 1958 | Wendy Hiller, Separate Tables | Peggy Cass, Autie Mame
Martha Hyer, Some Came Running Maureen Stapleton, Lonelyhearts Cara Williams, The Defiant Ones |
| 1959 | Shelley Winters, The Diary of Anne Frank | Hermione Baddeley, Room at the Top
Susan Kohner, Imitation of Life Juanita Moore, Imitation of Life Thelma Ritter, Pillow Talk |
| 1960 | Shirley Jones, Elmer Gantry | Glynis Johns, The Sundowners
Shirley Knight, The Dark at the Top of the Stairs Janet Leigh, Psycho Mary Ure, Sons and Lovers |
| 1961 | Rita Moreno, West Side Story | Fay Bainter, The Children’s Hour
Judy Garland, Judgment at Nuremberg Lotte Lenya, The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone Una Merkel, Summer and Smoke |
| 1962 | Patty Duke, The Miracle Worker | Mary Badham, To Kill a Mockingbird
Shirley Knight, Sweet Bird of Youth Angela Lansbury, The Manchurian Candidate Thelma Ritter, Birdman of Alcatraz |
| 1963 | Margaret Rutherford, The V.I.P.s | Diane Cilento, Tom Jones
Edith Evans, Tom Jones Joyce Redman, Tom Jones Lilia Skala, Lilies of the Field |
| 1964 | Lila Kedrova, Zorba the Greek | Gladys Cooper, My Fair Lady
Edith Evans, The Chalk Garden Grayson Hall, The Night of the Iguana Agnes Moorehead, Hush… Hush, Sweet Charlotte |
| 1965 | Shelley Winters, A Patch of Blue | Ruth Gordon, Inside Daisy Clover
Joyce Redman, Othello Maggie Smith, Othello Peggy Wood, The Sound of Music |
| 1966 | Sandy Dennis, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? | Wendy Hiller, A Man for All Seasons
Jocelyne LaGarde, Hawaii Vivien Merchant, Alfie Geraldine Page, You’re a Big Boy Now |
| 1967 | Estelle Parsons, Bonnie and Clyde | Carol Channing, Thoroughly Modern Millie
Mildred Natwick, Barefoot in the Park Beah Richards, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner Katharine Ross, The Graduate |
| 1968 | Ruth Gordon, Rosemary’s Babby | Lynn Carlin, Faces
Sondra Locke, The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter Kay Medford, Funny Girl Estelle Parsons, Rachel, Rachel |
| 1969 | Goldie Hawn, Cactus Flower | Cahterine Burns, Last Summer
Dyan Cannon, Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice Sylvia Miles, Midnight Cowboy Susanna York, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? |
| 1970 | Helen Hayes, Airport | Karen Black, Five Easy Pieces
Lee Grant, The Landlord Sally Kellerman, MASH Maureen Stapleton, Airport |
| 1971 | Cloris Leachman, The Last Picture Show | Ann-Margret, Carnal Knowledge
Ellen Burstyn, The Last Picture Show Barbara Harris, Who Is Harry Kellerman and Why Is He Saying Those Terrible Things About Me? Margaret Leighton, The Go-Between |
| 1972 | Eileen Heckart, Butterflies are Free | Jeannie Berlin, The Heartbreak Kid
Geraldine Page, Pete ‘n’ Tillie Susan Tyrrell, Fat City Shelley Winters, The Poseidon Adventure |
| 1973 | Tatum O’Neal, Paper Moon | Linda Blair, The Exorcist
Candy Clark, American Graffiti Madeline Kahn, Paper Moon Sylvia Sidney, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams |
| 1974 | Ingrid Begman, Murder on the Orient Express | Valentina Cortese, Day for Night
Madeline Kahn, Blazing Saddles Diane Ladd, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore Talia Shire, The Godfather Part II |
| 1975 | Lee Grant, Shampoo | Ronee Blakley, Nashville
Sylvia Miles, Farewell, My Lovely Lily Tomlin, Nashville Brenda Vaccaro, Jacqueline Susann’s Once is Not Enough |
| 1976 | Beatrice Straight, Network | Jane Alexander, All the President’s Men
Jodie Foster, Taxi Driver Lee Grant, Voyage of the Damned Piper Laurie, Carrie |
| 1977 | Vanessa Redgrave, Julia | Leslie Browne, The Turning Point
Quinn Cummings, The Goodbye Girl Melinda Dillon, Close Encounters of the Third Kind Tuesday Weld, Looking for Mr. Goodbar |
| 1978 | Maggie Smith, California Suite | Dyan Cannon, Heaven Can Wait
Penelope Milford, Coming Home Maureen Stapleton, Interiors Meryl Streep, The Deer Hunter |
| 1979 | Meryl Streep, Kramer vs. Kramer | Jane Alexander, Kramer vs. Kramer
Barbara Barrie, Breaking Away Candice Bergen, Starting Over Mariel Heminway, Manhattan |
| 1980 | Mary Steenburgen, Melvin and Howard | Eileen Brennan, Private Benjamin
Eva Le Gallienne, Resurrection Cathy Moriarty, Raging Bull Diana Scarwid, Inside Moves |
| 1981 | Maureen Stapleton, Reds | Melinda Dillon, Absence of Malice
Jane Fonda, On Golden Pond Joan Hackett, The Last Laugh Elizabeth McGovern, Ragtime |
| 1982 | Jessica Lange, Tootsie | Glenn Close, The World According to Garp
Teri Garr, Tootsie Kim Stanley, Frances Lesley Ann Warren, Victor Victoria |
| 1983 | Linda Hunt, The Year of Living Dangerously | Cher, Silkwood
Glenn Close, The Big Chill Amy Irving, Yentl Alfre Woodard, Cross Creek |
| 1984 | Peggy Ashcroft, A Passage to India | Glenn Close, The Natural
Lindsay Crouse, Places in the Heart Christine Lahti, Swing Shift Geraldine Page, The Pope of Greenwich Village |
| 1985 | Anjelica Huston, Prizzi’s Honor | Margaret Avery, The Color Purple
Amy Madigan, Twice in a Lifetime Meg Tilly, Agnes of God Oprah Winfrey, The Color Purple |
| 1986 | Dianne Wiest, Hannah and Her Sisters | Tess Harper, Crimes of the Heart
Piper Laurie, Children of a Lesser God Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, The Color of Money Maggie Smith, A Room with a Vier |
| 1987 | Olympia Dukakis, Moonstruck | Norma Aleandro, Gaby: A True Story
Anne Archer, Fatal Attraction Anne Ramsey, Throw Momma from the Train Ann Sothern, The Whales of August |
| 1988 | Geena Davis, The Accidental Tourist | Joan Cusack, Working Girl
Frances McDormand, Mississippi Burning Michelle Pfeiffer, Dangerous Liaisons Sigourney Weaver, Working Girl |
| 1989 | Brenda Fricker, My Left Foot | Anjelica Huston, Enemies, a Love Story
Lena Olin, Enemies, a Love Story Julia Roberts, Steel Magnolias Dianne Wiest, Parenthood |
| 1990 | Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost | Annette Bening, The Grifters
Lorraine Bracco, Goodfellas Diane Ladd, Wild at Heart Mary McDonnell, Dances with Wolves |
| 1991 | Mercedes Ruehl, The Fisher King | Diane Ladd, Rambling Rose
Juliette Lewis, Cape Fear Kate Nelligan, The Prince of Tides Jessica Tandy, Fried Green Tomatoes |
| 1992 | Marisa Tomei, My Cousin Vinny | Judy Davis, Husbands and Wives
Joan Plowright, Enchanted April Vanessa Redgrave, Howards End Miranda Richardson, Damage |
| 1993 | Anna Paquin, The Piano | Holly Hunter, The Firm
Rosie Perez, Fearless Winona Ryder, The Age of Innocence Emma Thompson, In the Name of the Father |
| 1994 | Dianne Wiest, Bullets over Broadway | Rosemary Harris, Tom & Viv
Helen Mirren, The Madness of King George Uma Thurman, Pulp Fiction Jennifer Tilly, Bullets over Broadway |
| 1995 | Mira Sorvino, Mighty Aphrodite | Joan Allen, Nixon
Kathleen Quinlan, Apollo 13 Mare Winningham, Georgia Kate Winslet, Sense an Sensibility |
| 1996 | Juliette Binoche, The English Patient | Joan Allen, The Crucible
Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces Barbara Hershey, Portrait of a Lady Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets & Lies |
| 1997 | Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential | Joan Cusack, In & Out
Minnie Driver, Good Will Hunting Julianne Moore, Boogie Nights Gloria Stuart, Titanic |
| 1998 | Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love | Kathy Bates, Primary Colors
Brenda Blethyn, Little Voice Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jackie Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsterds |
| 1999 | Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted | Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry |
| 2000 | Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock | Judi Dench, Chocolat
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous Frances McDormand, Almost Famous Julie Walters, Billy Elliot |
| 2001 | Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind | Helen Mirren, Gosford Park
Maggie Smith, Gosford Park Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom Kate Winslet, Iris |
| 2002 | Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago | Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Queen Latifah, Chicago Julianne Moore, The Hours Meryl Streep, Adaptation |
| 2003 | Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain | Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River Holly Huntet, Thirteen |
| 2004 | Cate Blanchett, The Aviator | Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda Natalie Portman, Closer |
| 2005 | Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener | Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote Frances McDormand, North Country Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain |
| 2006 | Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls | Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine Rinko Kikuchi, Babel |
| 2007 | Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton | Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster Saoirse Ronan, Atonement Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone |
| 2008 | Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Amy Adams, Doubt
Viola Davis, Doubt Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler |
| 2009 | Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire | Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air |
| 2010 | Melissa Leo, The Fighter | Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom |
| 2011 | Octavia Spencer, The Help | Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs |
| 2012 | Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables | Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln Helen Hunt, The Sessions Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook |
| 2013 | Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave | Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle Julia Roberts, August: Osage County June Squibb, Nebraska |
| 2014 | Patricia Arquette, Boyhood | Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game Emma Stone, Birdman Meryl Streep, Into the Woods |
| 2015 | Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
|
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol Rachel McAdams, Spotlight Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs |
| 2016 | Viola Davis, Fences | Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion Octavia Spancer, Hidden Figures Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea |
| 2017 | Allison Janney, I, Tonya | Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water |
It’s an acting category, so that means SAG first, questions later.
They’re 17/24 all, time, so just over 70%. Two of the seven misses, however, are category differences. Jennifer Connelly won SAG lead and the Oscar for Supporting, and then Kate Winslet won SAG Supporting in 2008 and then won Best Actress at the Oscars.
The other five misses are:
- 1995, Kate Winslet wins SAG and Mira Sorvino wins the Oscar
- 1996, Lauren Bacall wins SAG and Juliette Binoche wins the Oscar
- 1998, Kathy Bates wins SAG and Judi Dench wins the Oscar
- 2000, Judi Dench wins SAG and Marcia Gay Harden wins the Oscar
- 2007, Ruby Dee wins SAG and Tilda Swinton wins the Oscar.
They haven’t been wrong in a decade, if you count the Kate Winslet swap as being right. Most of their misses came early on in the SAG years, and pretty much since then they are solid. This year, however… things might be different. But, let’s look at how the other precursors did in those years:
BAFTA had Juliette Binoche in 1996, they had Judi Dench in 1998, they had Jennifer Connelly in 2001, they had Tilda Swinton in 2007, and they had Penelope Cruz in 2008. So they get the two category swaps right and the only two times they straight up missed were 1995, where they also had Kate Winslet over Sorvino, and 2000, where they had Julie Walters (but that’s the year everyone got it wrong and Harden won with no precursors). So usually, SAG and BAFTA, you’re set. (But again, this year…)
Oh, and BFCA, because we can: They had Mira Sorvino. So there’s that. Only one category unaccounted for. But outside of Jennifer Connelly in 2001 and the category swapped Kate Winslet, they also got every other one wrong. But that does mean your precursors are gonna help you.
The Globes meanwhile: The had Sorvino in ’95, missed the ’96 because they also had Bacall, missed Dench in ’98 (had Lynn Redgrave instead), missed 2000 along with everyone else (had Kate Hudson), had Jennifer Connelly in 2001, missed 2007 (had Cate Blanchett) and had Winslet in the category swap in 2008.
So yeah. Generally your winner will win some of the precursors. But this year, they’re not so helpful, are they?
Before we get into the category, let’s do my statistics thing. (Don’t worry, we’re almost done. It’s just Actor and Picture left.) In the Best Actress category, here’s how the positions have fared:
#1 – 13 times
#2 – 16 times
#3 – 19 times
#4 – 15 times
#5 – 17 times
This is the only category where the first position isn’t either first or tied for first. This first position is actually the worst to be.
- The last #1 to win was Viola Davis, Fences
- The last #2 to win was Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- The last #3 to win was Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
- The last #4 to win was Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- The last #5 to win was Octavia Spencer, The Help
So it’s all recent. They’re all pretty bunched together. And according to this category, the order of likelihood to win is: 1) King, 2) Weisz, 3) de Tavira, 4) Stone, 5) Adams. Honestly, not so far off from the truth, is it.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Maria de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
This category was mostly decided all the way through, as were most of the acting categories. Adams, Stone and Weisz hit everything. King missed both SAG and BAFTA, but no one ever thought she would be left off. That last spot, however, was very open. Emily Blunt got a SAG nomination, Margot Robbie got SAG and BAFTA, Claire Foy got BAFTA… no one knew where it was gonna go. And it turns out, it’s because de Tavira isn’t SAG. So she couldn’t have been nominated. And they went all in on Roma. So here we are.
The interesting thing about this one was that it seemed very likely from the start that Regina King was the de facto winner here due to a vote split from Stone and Weisz. Adams never seemed like a winner and we never knew who the fifth person would be, so that didn’t seem like a possibility. But then King missed both SAG and BAFTA, which was interesting. That’s the only thing making this category notable right now, the fact that the person we all think will win missed the two biggest precursors. But then all the precursors pretty much are going off the board because of that. So it seems like it normally would most other years. It’s weird.
But yeah, King has BFCA and the Globe so far. SAG went to Emily Blunt, who wasn’t even nominated here. And there’s only BAFTA left, which will either decide between Stone or Weisz, or go off the board to Claire Foy or Margot Robbie. I guess Amy Adams theoretically could win BAFTA, but I don’t think anyone really sees that happening.
In the end… we have an exact mirror of 2000, don’t we? Maria de Tavira is Marcia Gay Harden in this scenario, isn’t she? Getting on with no precursors, and then the precursors are all over the place, with double nominees from the same film like that other time.
2000 had Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand from Almost Famous, Judi Dench in Chocolat, Julie Walters in Billy Elliott, and Harden. And in that year, Hudson won the Globes over Dench, McDormand and Walters; Frances McDormand won BFCA; Julie Walters won BAFTA over Dench and McDormand; and Dench won SAG over Hudson, McDormand and Walters. Everyone was split on people and then the fifth person got in and won the category.
Here, it’s slightly different, since King has the two lesser precursors and SAG went off the board. They could have easily rallied around one of the nominees here. So BAFTA is gonna tell the tale. If they also go off the board, then we probably know how this voting will turn out. If not, maybe we’ll see who can win it.
Rankings:
5. Amy Adams, Vice — She’s in every category and hasn’t won yet. Why does it seem like she’s always the last person in line for a vote in her films? It’s weird. She always gets nominated but never has a chance at a win. The Master, American Hustle, Doubt, The Fighter, Junebug. None of them. Also twice she was the second of a double nomination. Melissa Leo won over her in 2010, and Viola Davis had the showier role in Doubt, not that either had a chance. Junebug was her first and was the “welcome to the club” nomination. American Hustle, she had no shot. And The Master, she was along for the ride with Hoffman. Feels like she’s along for the ride with Bale here. Can’t see this amounting to anything.
4. Maria de Tavira, Roma — I don’t know if she’s not a stronger nominee. But I want to see what BAFTA does before I start talking myself into that. I know the next two have the vote split going on, but I don’t know if her not being on any of the precursor lists doesn’t help her. Then again, I think the fact that Regina King wasn’t on the two big precursor lists is clouding the fact that she probably would have swept all or most of them had she been on them. So I don’t know if de Tavira is a real contender in actuality. So I’ll leave her fourth for now, since you’d think if anyone really loved the performance enough for i to win that they’d have had it one another precursor.
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite — How do you figure out a vote split? It’s not like The Fighter where it was clearly Melissa Leo. Or The Help, where it was clearly Octavia Spencer. These two are 50/50 in every regard. How do you even pick who was better if not for personal preference? So the only way I split this vote save a BAFTA win for one of them is that Emma Stone has an Oscar more recently and might be more liked by more people. That’s it. That’s all I got.
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite — So yeah, the two of them are second and third until I talk myself into de Tavira being a second choice in this one due to overall category freshness on her part. But again, Weisz hasn’t been nominated since she last won and Stone has three nominations in five years and won two years ago. So I’m thinking more people would vote for her between the two. This is one of those situations where the vote split works against them because there is no pecking order.
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk — She’s the only one with precursors and will pretty much remain the only one with precursors. If BAFTA goes off the board the way SAG did, then it’ll literally be her with BFCA and the Globe and no one else with anything. So, for the moment, she’s the first choice on precursors and the fact that she makes the most sense as a winner. The role is such that she will get that ancillary support she needs in a category like this to take it down. And people will conveniently forget that she doesn’t really have the screen time you think she does and the role is pretty slight, all things considered. (Maybe that’s why she missed SAG and BAFTA. Dunno.) Still, the weird thing about the Oscars is that a lot of times the win isn’t necessarily about strength of performance so much as it is likability and logistics. This seems like a case of logistics. No one seems excited about Adams, the other two will siphon votes from one another and de Tavira is a foreign actress which makes her automatically less likely to get votes. King seems like she’ll take this just by default.
– – – – – – – – – –