So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
Today is Best Actress. The only major category that has a chance to surprise. Right? Maybe? For once?
| Year | Best Actress Winners | Other Nominees |
| 1927-1928 | Janet Gaynor, Seventh Heaven & Street Angel & Sunrise | Louise Dresser, A Ship Comes In
Gloria Swanson, Sadie Thompson |
| 1928-1929 | Mary Pickford, Coquette | Ruth Chatterton, Madame X
Betty Compson, The Barker Jeanne Eagels, The Letter Corrinne Griffith, The Divine Lady Bessie Love, The Broadway Melody |
| 1929-1930 | Norma Shearer, The Divorcee | Nancy Carroll, The Devil’s Holiday
Ruth Chatterton, Sarah and Son Greta Garbo, Anna Christie & Romance Norma Shearer, Their Own Desire Gloria Swanson, The Tresspasser |
| 1930-1931 | Marie Dressler, Min and Bill | Marlene Dietrich, Morocco
Irene Dunne, Cimarron Ann Harding, Holiday Norma Shearer, A Free Soul |
| 1931-1932 | Helen Hayes, The Sin of Madelon Claudet | Marie Dressler, Emma
Lynn Fontaine, The Guardsman |
| 1932-1933 | Katharine Hepburn, Morning Glory | May Robson, Lady for a Day
Diana Wynyard, Cavalcade |
| 1934 | Claudette Colbert, It Happened One Night | Grace Moore, One Night of Love
Norma Shearer, The Barretts of Wimpole Street Bette Davis, Of Human Bondage |
| 1935 | Bette Davis, Dangerous | Elisabeth Bergner, Escape Me Never
Claudette Colbert, Private Worlds Katharine Hepburn, Alice Adams Miriam Hopkins, Becky Sharp Merle Oberon, The Dark Angel |
| 1936 | Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld | Irene Dunne, Theodora Goes Wild
Gladys George, Valiant is the Word for Carrie Carole Lombard, My Man Godfrey Norma Shearer, Romeo and Juliet |
| 1937 | Luise Rainer, The Good Earth | Irene Dunne, The Awful Truth
Greta Garbo, Camille Janet Gaynor, A Star is Born Barbara Stanwyck, Stella Dallas |
| 1938 | Bette Davis, Jezebel | Fay Bainter, White Banners
Wendy Hiller, Pygmalion Norma Shearer, Marie Antoinette Margaret Sullivan, Three Comrades |
| 1939 | Vivien Leigh, Gone with the Wind | Bette Davis, Dark Victory
Irene Dunne, Love Affair Greta Garbo, Ninotchka Greer Garson, Goodbye, Mr. Chips |
| 1940 | Ginger Rogers, Kitty Foyle | Bette Davis, The Letter
Joan Fontaine, Rebecca Katharine Hepburn, The Philadelphia Story Martha Scott, Our Town |
| 1941 | Joan Fontaine, Suspicion | Bette Davis, The Little Foxes
Olivia de Havilland, Hold Back the Dawn Greer Garson, Blossoms in the Dust Barbara Stanwyck, Ball of Fire |
| 1942 | Greer Garson, Mrs. Miniver | Bette Davis, Now, Voyager
Katharine Hepburn, Woman of the Year Rosalind Russell, My Sister Eileen Teresa Wright, The Pride of the Yankees |
| 1943 | Jennifer Jones, The Song of Bernadette | Jean Arthur, The More the Merrier
Ingrid Bergman, For Whom the Bell Tolls Joan Fontaine, The Constant Nymph Greer Garson, Madame Curie |
| 1944 | Ingrid Bergman, Gaslight | Claudette Colbert, Since You Went Away
Bette Davis, Mr. Skeffington Greer Garson, Mrs. Parkington Barbara Stanwyck, Double Indemnity |
| 1945 | Joan Crawford, Mildred Pierce | Ingrid Bergman, The Bells of St. Mary’s
Greer Garson, The Valley of Decision Jennifer Jones, Love Letters Gene Tierney, Leave Her to Heaven |
| 1946 | Olivia de Havilland, To Each His Own | Celia Johnson, Brief Encounter
Jennifer Jones, Duel in the Sun Rosalind Russell, Sister Kenny Jane Wyman, The Yearling |
| 1947 | Loretta Young, The Farmer’s Daughter | Joan Crawford, Possessed
Susan Hayward, Smash-up, the Story of a Woman Dorothy McGuire, Gentleman’s Agreement Rosalind Russell, Mourning Becomes Electra |
| 1948 | Jane Wyman, Johnny Belinda | Ingrid Bergman, Joan of Arc
Olivia de Havilland, The Snake Pit Irene Dunne, I Remember Mama Barbara Stanwyck, Sorry, Wrong Number |
| 1949 | Olivia de Havilland, The Heiress | Jeanne Crain, Pinky
Susan Hayward, My Foolish Heart Deborah Kerr, Edward, My Son Loretta Young, Come to the Stable |
| 1950 | Judy Holliday, Born Yesterday | Anne Baxter, All About Eve
Betty Davis, All About Eve Eleanor Parker, Caged Gloria Swanson, Sunset Boulevard |
| 1951 | Vivien Leigh, A Streetcar Named Desire | Katharine Hepburn, The African Queen
Eleanor Parker, Detective Story Shelley Winters, A Place in the Sun Jane Wyman, The Blue Veil |
| 1952 | Shirley Booth, Come Back, Little Sheba | Joan Crawford, Sudden Fear
Bette Davis, The Star Julie Harris, The Member of the Wedding Susan Hayward, With a Song in My Heart |
| 1953 | Audrey Hepburn, Roman Holiday | Leslie Caron, Lili
Ava Gardner, Mogambo Deborah Kerr, From Here to Eternity Maggie McNamara, The Moon is Blue |
| 1954 | Grace Kelly, The Country Girl | Dorothy Dandridge, Carmen Jones
Judy Garland, A Star is Born Audrey Hepburn, Sabrina Jane Wyman, Magnificent Obsession |
| 1955 | Anna Magnani, The Rose Tattoo | Susan Hayward, I’ll Cry Tomorrow
Katharine Hepburn, Summertime Jennifer Jones, Love is a Many-Splendored Thing Eleanor Parker, Interrupted Melody |
| 1956 | Ingrid Bergman, Anastasia | Carroll Baker, Baby Doll
Katharine Hepburn, The Rainmaker Nancy Kelly, The Bad Seed Deborah Kerr, The King and I |
| 1957 | Joanne Woodward, The Three Faces of Eve | Deborah Kerr, Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison
Anna Magnani, Wild is the Wind Elizabeth Taylor, Raintree County Lana Turner, Peyton Place |
| 1958 | Susan Hayward, I Want to Live! | Deborah Kerr, Separate Tables
Shirley MacLaine, Some Came Running Rosalind Russell, Auntie Mame Elizabeth Taylor, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof |
| 1959 | Simone Signoret, Room at the Top | Doris Day, Pillow Talk
Audrey Hepburn, The Nun’s Story Katharine Hepburn, Suddenly, Last Summer Elizabeth Taylor, Suddenly, Last Summer |
| 1960 | Elizabeth Taylor, BUtterfield 8 | Greer Garson, Sunrise at Campobello
Deborah Kerr, The Sundowners Shirley MacLaine, The Apartment Melina Mercouri, Never on Sunday |
| 1961 | Sophia Loren, Two Women | Audrey Hepburn, Breakfast at Tiffany’s
Piper Laurie, The Hustler Geraldine Page, Summer and Smoke Natalie Wood, Splendor in the Grass |
| 1962 | Anne Bancroft, The Miracle Worker | Bette Davis, What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?
Katharine Hepburn, Long Day’s Journey Into Night Geraldine Page, Sweet Bird of Youth Lee Remick, Days of Wine and Roses |
| 1963 | Patricia Neal, Hud | Leslie Caron, The L-Shaped Room
Shirley MacLaine, Irma La Douce Rachel Roberts, This Sporting Life Natalie Wood, Love with the Proper Stranger |
| 1964 | Julie Andrews, Mary Poppins | Anne Bancroft, The Pumpkin Eater
Sophia Loren, Marriage, Italian Style Debbie Reynolds, The Unsinkable Molly Brown Kim Stanley, Séance on a Wet Afternoon |
| 1965 | Julie Christie, Darling | Julie Andrews, The Sound of Music
Samantha Eggar, The Collector Elizabeth Hartman, A Patch of Blue Simone Signoret, Ship of Fools |
| 1966 | Elizabeth Taylor, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? | Anouk Aimée, A Man and a Woman
Ida Kaminska, The Shop on Main Street Lynn Redgrave, Georgy Girl Vanessa Redgrave, Morgan! |
| 1967 | Katharine Hepburn, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? | Anne Bancroft, The Graduate
Faye Dunaway, Bonnie and Clyde Edith Evans, The Whisperers Audrey Hepburn, Wait Until Dark |
| 1968 | TIE
Katharine Hepburn, The Lion in Winter Barbra Streisand, Funny Girl |
Patricia Neal, The Subject Was Roses
Vanessa Redgrave, Isadora Joanne Woodward, Rachel, Rachel |
| 1969 | Maggie Smith, The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie | Geneviève Bujold, Anne of the Thousand Days
Jane Fonda, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Liza Minnelli, The Sterile Cuckoo Jean Simmons, The Happy Ending |
| 1970 | Glenda Jackson, Women in Love | Jane Alexander, The Great White Hope
Ali MacGraw, Love Story Sarah Miles, Ryan’s Daughter Carrie Snodgress, Diary of a Mad Housewife |
| 1971 | Jane Fonda, Klute | Julie Christie, McCabe & Mrs. Miller
Glenda Jackson, Sunday Bloody Sunday Vanessa Redgrave, Mary, Queen of Scots Janet Suzman – Nicholas and Alexandra |
| 1972 | Liza Minnelli, Cabaret | Diana Ross, Lady Sings the Blues
Maggie Smith, Travels with My Aunt Cicely Tyson, Sounder Liv Ullmann, The Emigrants |
| 1973 | Glenda Jackson, A Touch of Class | Ellen Burstyn, The Exorcist
Marsha Mason, Cinderella Liberty Barbra Streisand, The Way We Were Joanne Woodward, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams |
| 1974 | Ellen Burstyn, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore | Diahann Carroll, Claudine
Faye Dunaway, Chinatown Valerie Perrine, Lenny Gena Rowlands, A Woman Under the Influence |
| 1975 | Louise Fletcher, One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Ann-Margret, Tommy
Isabelle Adjani, The Story of Adele H. Glenda Jackson, Hedda Carol Kane, Hester Street |
| 1976 | Faye Dunaway, Network | Marie-Christine Barrault, Cousin, cousine
Talia Shire, Rocky Sissy Spacek, Carrie Liv Ullmann, Face to Face |
| 1977 | Diane Keaton, Annie Hall | Anne Bancroft, The Turning Point
Jane Fonda, Julia Shirley MacLaine, The Turning Point Marsha Mason, The Goodbye Girl |
| 1978 | Jane Fonda, Coming Home | Ingrid Bergman, Autumn Sonata
Ellen Burstyn, Same Time, Next Year Jill Clayburgh, An Unmarried Woman Geraldine Page, Interiors |
| 1979 | Sally Field, Norma Rae | Jill Clayburgh, Starting Over
Jane Fonda, The China Syndrome Marsha Mason, Chapter Two Bette Midler, The Rose |
| 1980 | Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner’s Daughter | Ellen Burstyn, Resurrection
Goldie Hawn, Private Benjamin Mary Tyler Moore, Ordinary People Gena Rowlands, Gloria |
| 1981 | Katharine Hepburn, On Golden Pond | Diane Keaton, Reds
Marsha Mason, Only When I Laugh Susan Sarandon, Atlantic City Meryl Streep, The French Lieutenant’s Woman |
| 1982 | Meryl Streep, Sophie’s Choice | Julie Andrews, Victor Victoria
Jessica Lange, Frances Sissy Spacek, Missing Debra Winger, An Officer and a Gentleman |
| 1983 | Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment | Jane Alexander, Testament
Meryl Streep, Silkwood Julie Walters, Educating Rita Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment |
| 1984 | Sally Field, Places in the Heart | Judy Davis, A Passage to India
Jessica Lange, Country Vanessa Redgrave, The Bostonians Sissy Spacek, The River |
| 1985 | Geraldine Page, The Trip to Bountiful | Anne Bancroft, Agnes of God
Whoopi Goldberg, The Color Purple Jessica Lange, Sweet Dreams Meryl Streep, Out of Africa |
| 1986 | Marlee Matlin, Children of a Lesser God | Jane Fonda, The Morning After
Sissy Spacek, Crimes of the Heart Kathleen Turner, Peggy Sue Got Married Sigourney Weaver, Aliens |
| 1987 | Cher, Moonstruck | Glenn Close, Fatal Attraction
Holly Hunter, Broadcast News Sally Kirkland, Anna Meryl Streep, Ironweed |
| 1988 | Jodie Foster, The Accused | Glenn Close, Dangerous Liaisons
Melanie Griffith, Working Girl Meryl Streep, A Cry in the Dark Sigourney Weaver, Gorillas in the Mist |
| 1989 | Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy | Isabelle Adjani, Camille Claudel
Pauline Collins, Shirley Valentine Jessica Lange, Music Box Michelle Pfeiffer, The Fabulous Baker Boys |
| 1990 | Kathy Bates, Misery | Anjelica Huston, The Grifters
Julia Roberts, Pretty Woman Meryl Streep, Postcards from the Edge Joanne Woodward, Mr. and Mrs. Bridge |
| 1991 | Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs | Geena Davis, Thelma & Louise
Laura Dern, Rambling Rose Bette Midler, For the Boys Susan Sarandon, Thelma & Louise |
| 1992 | Emma Thompson, Howards End | Catherine Deneuve, Indochine
Mary McDonnell, Passion Fish Michelle Pfeiffer, Love Field Susan Sarandon, Lorenzo’s Oil |
| 1993 | Holly Hunter, The Piano | Angela Bassett, What’s Love Got to Do with It
Stockhard Channing, Six Degrees of Separation Emma Thompson, The Remains of the Day Debra Winger, Shadowlands |
| 1994 | Jessica Lange, Blue Sky | Jodie Foster, Nell
Miranda Richardson, Tom & Viv Winona Ryder, Little Women Susan Sarandon, The Client |
| 1995 | Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking | Elisabeth Shue, Leaving Las Vegas
Sharon Stone, Casino Meryl Streep, The Bridges of Madison County Emma Thompson, Sense and Sensibility |
| 1996 | Frances McDormand, Fargo | Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies
Diane Keaton, Marvin’s Room Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves |
| 1997 | Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets | Helena Bonham Carter, The Wings of the Dove
Julie Christie, Afterglow Judi Dench, Mrs. Brown Kate Winslet, Titanic |
| 1998 | Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love | Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth
Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station Meryl Streep, One True Thing Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie |
| 1999 | Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry | Annette Bening, American Beauty
Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart |
| 2000 | Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich | Joan Allen, The Contender
Juliette Binoche, Chocolat Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me |
| 2001 | Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball | Judi Dench, Iris
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge! Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary |
| 2002 | Nicole Kidman, The Hours | Salma Hayek, Frida
Diane Lane, Unfaithful Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Renée Zellweger, Chicago |
| 2003 | Charlize Theron, Monster | Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give Samantha Morton, In America Naomi Watts, 21 Grams |
| 2004 | Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby | Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
| 2005 | Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line | Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice Charlize Theron, North Country |
| 2006 | Helen Mirren, The Queen | Penèlope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada Kate Winslet, Little Children |
| 2007 | Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose | Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her Laura Linney, The Savages Ellen Page, Juno |
| 2008 | Kate Winslet, The Reader | Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling Melissa Leo, Frozen River Meryl Streep, Doubt |
| 2009 | Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side | Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia |
| 2010 | Natalie Portman, Black Swan | Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine |
| 2011 | Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady | Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn |
| 2012 | Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook | Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild Naomi Watts, The Impossible |
| 2013 | Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine | Amy Adams, American Hustle
Judi Dench, Philomena Meryl Streep, August: Osage County Naomi Watts, The Impossible |
| 2014 | Julianne Moore, Still Alice | Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon, Wild |
| 2015 | Brie Larson, Room
|
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn |
| 2016 | Emma Stone, La La Land | Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving Natalie Portman, Jackie Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins |
| 2017 | Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Meryl Streep, The Post |
SAG is the precursor here. They’re 17/23 all-time. Here are the six misses:
- 1994, Jodie Foster won SAG, Jessica Lange won the Oscar.
- 1999, Annette Bening won SAG, Hilary Swank won the Oscar.
- 2002, Renée Zellweger won SAG, Nicole Kidman won the Oscar.
- 2007, Julie Christie won SAG, Marion Cotillard won the Oscar.
- 2008, Meryl won SAG, Kate Winslet won the Oscar. (Though she also won SAG Supporting for that same performance.)
- 2011, Viola Davis won SAG, Meryl won the Oscar.
So, five real misses. Generally, you listen to them, unless there’s a clear duel going on, in which case you give them preference but still go with what makes sense.
This year, we don’t really need much of the complexity, since every precursor to this point went to Frances McDormand. BAFTA is announcing on Sunday, but I think we all assume that’s going her way as well. And until (and even if) it doesn’t, we can parse this one fully at this point.
#1 – 18 times
#2 – 24 times
#3 – 15 times
#4 – 16 times
#5 – 16 times
#6 – 1 time
The #6 was Mary Pickford, the one time there were six nominees. Outside of that, #2 wins the most.
The last #1 to win was Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
The last #2 to win was Frances McDormand
The last #3 to win was Brie Larson, Room
The last #4 to win was Emma Stone
The last #5 to win was Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Actress
This was the only category that made sense throughout the season. Other people got precursors — namely Jessica Chastain. Judi Dench got SAG, but no one took that seriously. Other people got minor precursors, but in the end, there were six real choices, and one of the two fighting for the fifth spot was Meryl, who they will nominate for literally anything. So no real surprises here.
This was also one of those years where, pretty much as soon as they announced nominations, you saw the clear path for the winner mapped out. Kinda like last year, only much more certain. Last year, the minute the category was locked, you saw that lane for Emma Stone to use to slide into a win. And once the early precursors landed, you saw it all playing out. This year, the minute you saw that list, you knew — “Frances McDormand.” At least, I did. Unless things started going wildly differently early on, it just felt all downhill. And it has been. Once the Globes happened, it felt locked. And then BFCA four days later. Since then, no one’s been able to make up any ground. And here we are.
Rankings:
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? — I’ve made the decision to put McCarthy fifth. Because why was she even fourth in the first place? Here’s someone who hit every precursor and lost every precursor to someone else on this list. They clearly like her and the performance, but no one seems to care enough to vote for it. And her film doesn’t have 8+ nominations. So she’s fifth. Who thinks she’s got any shot at this?
4. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma — Her film has 10 nominations and will win a bunch of them. She might get votes. Some people might love this enough to take her too. Of course, she missed the only precursor she was nominated for. But hey, she’s got more category freshness than Melissa McCarthy does, so I’ll put her fourth. No one thinks either of these bottom two has a chance, so who cares?
3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born — She’s at least got a BFCA tie under her belt. No one really thinks she can win BAFTA. The buzz for her film has died down and now it’s more of a “good job out of you” feeling for her. This role has never won the Oscar, and it doesn’t look like that’s gonna continue here. She’ll get votes. That’s for sure. But missing SAG was a big deal. That would have kept her in it. Now she’ll need BAFTA to seem like a legitimate contender. And I don’t think she’s getting it. So she’s going in a third choice. Theoretically it could happen, but it’s seeming like a much longer shot. Especially if Glenn Close also wins the BAFTA.
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite — Here’s the deal, if she wins the BAFTA, she’s the second choice. If not, she’s pretty much out of it. All she has right now is the Globe for Musical/Comedy. I’m putting her here because I know the history behind the Gaga nomination/role and Colman seems like she’s gonna win BAFTA. But if not, then this one’s pretty much a wrap.
1. Glenn Close, The Wife — If she doesn’t win the Oscar, let me say here and now that I will make a “Close but no cigar” joke. But right now, she has the Globe, she won BFCA, even in a tie, and she won SAG. So she’s the favorite and she’s probably gonna win the Oscar. If she wins BAFTA, then it’s locked. If either Colman or Gaga wins the BAFTA, then it’s more open than we thought. Gaga would really make it a race again. Colman would just make her the second choice with Close a probable winner anyway. Still, until BAFTA and even until Oscar night, she is your most likely winner of the award. This one seems pretty cut and dry right now. SAG shut this one down pretty tightly.
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