All right, here’s an abridged version of all my Oscar picks. Basically — what I’m picking, what I want to win, what you should pick, and what will win if my pick doesn’t win (the alternate, essentially). I’ll write a brief blurb underneath explaining the deal with the category.
Oh, and here’s a link to the giant picks article. For reference.
So anyway, here are the picks:
Best Picture:
My personal choice: Gravity
What you should take: Whatever you’d feel worst about not having. For me, that’s 12 Years a Slave.
What’s on my ballot: Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: American Hustle
To me, this is either Gravity or American Hustle. Maybe 12 Years a Slave, but I just feel like racism rules out yet again. So take what your heart tells you here. I hope Gravity wins. I’m totally happy with a 12 Years a Slave win. I’ll be disappointed with an American Hustle win. But the PGA set it up to be either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave. I leave this up to you. Statistically, Gravity seems like the film most likely to win. I’m just feeling like American Hustle is going to be the one to upset. Maybe that’s me getting the jump on the disappointment, but I don’t know. It’s one of three, and those are the only three you should go with for a pick.
Best Director:
My personal choice: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
What you should take: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
What’s on my ballot: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: David O. Russell, American Hustle
Cuaron’s got this shit locked. If anyone else wins (namely Russell or McQueen), that’s your Best Picture winner. Otherwise, this should be one of the biggest locks of the night.
Best Actor:
My personal choice: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
What you should take: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
What’s on my ballot: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Another of the biggest locks of the night. McConaughey’s had this on lock all the way through. DiCaprio is the only other choice, and even that’s a pipe dream. He’d be the first person not nominated for SAG to outright win Best Actor. Some people think Ejiofor has a shot, but he doesn’t. It’s McConaughey as the winner, and DiCaprio as the spoiler. That’s it.
Best Actress:
My personal choice: Judi Dench, Philomena
What you should take: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
What’s on my ballot: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Huge lock. Blanchett isn’t losing. No one’s even close to her. Don’t pick the upset here, it’s a waste of a vote.
Best Supporting Actor:
My personal choice: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
What you should take: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
What’s on my ballot: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Leto looks to also be a mortal lock here. You can maybe go for the upset, but you have to figure out which nominee will steal the most votes. I think that nominee is Jonah Hill. Based on precursors, that nominee is likely Barkhad Abdi. Fassbender hasn’t gotten too much support in the precursors, so I don’t think you should take him. And Cooper seems to be along for the ride. So I say Leto is the only real choice here, and then you see what happens when they announce. I have a hard time thinking he loses at this point.
Best Supporting Actress:
My personal choice: None. But I guess I’d have voted for Julia Roberts, August: Osage County. But on an actual ballot, I’d pick Lupita Nyong’o.
What you should take: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
What’s on my ballot: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
I took Jennifer Lawrence so I wouldn’t be upset when she won. I think Lupita Nyong’o is right there with her and is the choice you should take if you want the probable winner. It’s one or the other. Keep an eye out for June Squibb as well. She’s a real off the wall choice that could pan out. More than likely, though, it’s either Lawrence or Nyong’o, with Nyong’o the smarter choice.
Best Original Screenplay:
My personal choice: Her
What you should take: Her
What’s on my ballot: American Hustle
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Her
I’m taking American Hustle because this is the second category where I’ve convinced myself they’re going to take it. Her is my personal choice, the film that won the WGA over American Hustle, and is the film you should probably take here, since it’s the film we all want to win. It’s one or the other, and also watch out for Nebraska as a potential upset winner as well. Don’t bother with Dallas Buyers Club, and god help you if you take Woody Allen. Stick with the top two. Those are your best bets.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
My personal choice: 12 Years a Slave
What you should take: 12 Years a Slave
What’s on my ballot: 12 Years a Slave
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Philomena
12 Years looks to be a towering favorite in this category. Don’t take Before Midnight at all. And if you don’t think it’s 12 Years, good luck figuring out which film musters enough votes to take it down. Philomena looks to be the likely contender, with the BAFTAs going for it here and Harvey behind it and it being a generally liked film. Wolf of Wall Street and Captain Phillips also are there as well, and those will get votes. So in that scenario, I say take the favorite and let someone beat you unless you have a real hunch.
Best Original Score:
My personal choice: Gravity
What you should take: Gravity
What’s on my ballot: Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Her (because why not?)
Gravity should take this. Though I know a lot of people are voting for Saving Mr. Banks because of Thomas Newman, and that could be a potential spoiler. Otherwise, Her seems too young for them, Philomena doesn’t seem likely enough to get a lot of votes, and John Williams is an afterthought with The Book Thief because no one saw it. Take the Best Picture frontrunner with the score that everyone remembers. Unless you think they’ll have vote fatigue and want to spread the wealth. (Though I can’t imagine this being the category where they choose to do it.)
Best Original Song:
My personal choice: “Let It Go,” from Frozen
What you should take: “Let It Go,” from Frozen
What’s on my ballot: “Let It Go,” from Frozen
What will win if my pick doesn’t: “Ordinary Love,” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Ordinary Love” and “Happy” have campaigned like crazy the last month, and might take down “Let It Go.” But I’m taking it all the way through and nothing will change that. I leave the final decision to you.
Best Editing:
My personal choice: Gravity
What you should take: Captain Phillips
What’s on my ballot: Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Captain Phillips
Statistically, Captain Phillips is the smarter choice. It has the flashy editing, Greengrass won this category for Bourne Ultimatum in ’07, and it won the Eddie, which, over the past 15 years, has an 80% correlation with the Oscar winner. So it’s the smarter choice. It’s between that and Gravity, and personally, I’m taking Gravity because I think that also had noticeable editing, might just get the sweep vote check, and because I’m an idiot. You want one or the other. American Hustle wins only if it wins Best Picture and they really want to make it known beforehand. That’s the spoiler choice. Even if 12 Years wins Best Picture, it still shouldn’t take Editing. And Dallas Buyers Club has no shot. Take either Captain Phillips or Gravity.
Best Cinematography:
My personal choice: Inside Llewyn Davis
What you should take: Gravity
What’s on my ballot: Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Probably Nebraska
Gravity is winning this. Don’t waste time looking elsewhere.
Best Production Design:
My personal choice: The Great Gatsby
What you should take: The Great Gatsby
What’s on my ballot: The Great Gatsby
What will win if my pick doesn’t: American Hustle (or maybe 12 Years a Slave) (Hell, possibly even Gravity)
Gatsby has been the frontrunner because it’s the flashiest of the nominees. But this category is pretty open, as it has been in years past (specifically last year). American Hustle is a major contender, and even 12 Years a Slave could pull an upset. Gravity, I can’t see winning, and Her has no shot. Smart money is on either Gatsby or American Hustle.
Best Costume Design:
My personal choice: The Great Gatsby
What you should take: The Great Gatsby
What’s on my ballot: The Great Gatsby
What will win if my pick doesn’t: American Hustle
Again, Gatsby is the flashy choice. 12 Years a Slave won the Period award at the Costume Designers Guild. Which is only so helpful. Not as much as Editing or Director, but a little bit. American Hustle is the film likely to overtake Gatsby, just because people really remember the costumes there. So I’d say it’s either Gatsby or that. 12 Years is a distant third that still has potential to win. I say one or the other, though. (Don’t bother with Grandmaster or Invisible Woman. One they didn’t see, the other’s a trap bet.)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
My personal choice: Dallas Buyers Club
What you should take: Dallas Buyers Club
What’s on my ballot: Dallas Buyers Club
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Bad Grandpa
Lone Ranger will not win. They think of it as a bomb, and it’s not happening. Bad Grandpa has the showiest makeup, but you’re dealing with a Best Picture nominee and a beloved film. Dallas Buyers Club isn’t losing.
Best Visual Effects:
My personal choice: Gravity
What you should take: Gravity
What’s on my ballot: Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Anarchy? Honestly, nothing else is winning. It’s gonna be Gravity.
The biggest lock since Avatar. We all have one right already.
Best Sound Editing:
My personal choice: Gravity
What you should take: Gravity
What’s on my ballot: Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Captain Phillips
It’s winning both Sound categories. Don’t waste time. (Captain Phillips is the only other film with a chance here, and that won’t happen.)
Best Sound:
My personal choice: Gravity
What you should take: Gravity
What’s on my ballot: Gravity
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Captain Phillips
I told you, it’s winning both. Don’t waste time. Let something else beat you.
Best Animated Feature:
My personal choice: Frozen
What you should take: Frozen
What’s on my ballot: Frozen
What will win if my pick doesn’t: No clue. I assume Despicable Me 2, but who thinks that’ll happen?
Another one that seems like a huge lock. It’s winning. Just take it.
Best Foreign Language Feature:
My personal choice: N/A
What you should take: The Great Beauty
What’s on my ballot: The Great Beauty
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Not sure. Maybe The Hunt? Broken Circle Breakdown?
The Great Beauty is the perception favorite, and that usually leads to a win. The Broken Circle Breakdown has the bluegrass music and an emotional story. I feel that’s the alternate choice. The Hunt could be a spoiler, but I feel like The Great Beauty might overtake that with style over substance. Don’t bother with The Missing Picture and I feel like not enough people saw Omar to even bother with it. I say stick with The Great Beauty and let something else beat you.
Best Documentary Feature:
My personal choice: The Act of Killing
What you should take: 20 Feet from Stardom
What’s on my ballot: 20 Feet from Stardom
What will win if my pick doesn’t: The Act of Killing (or even The Square)
It’s between 20 Feet from Stardom, The Act of Killing and The Square. The Act of Killing dominated things before nominations, but since then, it’s been all 20 Feet and The Square. So the choice is between one of them. One’s populist, the other’s “important.” Which is usually how this category ends up going down. I say 20 Feet from Stardom wins in an open vote, that’s not just the Documentary branch and whatever people went to all the screenings. It’s everyone’s favorite film, the one we enjoyed the most, and Harvey Weinstein is behind it. I say it wins. Otherwise, if you don’t take that, probably take The Square. That seems the alternative winner. Though The Act of Killing wouldn’t be a terrible choice either. Personally, I’m going populist because this is a new voting system and it favors the populist choice that the most people saw.
Best Documentary Short-Subject:
My personal choice: N/A
What you should take: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
What’s on my ballot: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Uhh… any of them? Let’s say Prison Terminal, for the hell of it.
No idea. This is a rough category. The Lady in Number 6 is about a 100 year old lady who survived the Holocaust because of music. And she died like, a week ago, right as ballots were being turned in. It seems the obvious choice. Prison Terminal packs an emotional punch, and could sway the people who saw them all. Facing Fear I wouldn’t vote for at all. CaveDigger seems like a red herring, even though it’s the best of the bunch, visually. And then Karama Has No Walls is your third choice. You should either take Lady in Number 6, Karama Has No Walls, or Prison Terminal. Those are your choices. I’m taking Holocaust lady because it makes the most sense, and I have no idea. Historically, they like big issues and uplifting stories. So probably your best bets based on precedents are The Lady in Number 6 and Karama Has No Walls. Good luck.
Best Live-Action Short:
My personal choice: N/A
What you should take: Helium
What’s on my ballot: Helium
What will win if my pick doesn’t: The Voorman Problem (or, Helium, depending on which way you go there)
This is the single worst category to pick at the Oscars. But I’m going to make it easier for you. You won’t really have to think about it. Do I Have to Take Care of Everything? is a comic short that’s only about 8 minutes long, and ends up being a gag film. So don’t vote for it, it’s not winning. Boom, one down. That Wasn’t Me is kind of heavy and packs an emotional punch. So it could win, but typically, the winners in this category are a little lighter and more uplifting. They’re emotional in a positive way and not a sad way. Though I think this could have that positive emotion at the end, I’m not sure, so maybe this could be part of a vote. I consider it a spoiler that you can vote for it you want to. Just Before Losing Everything is probably the one to elicit the most emotion of the nominees — it’s about a wife taking her kids out of school and trying to leave her husband during the course of a day. It could be something they vote for, assuming everyone who votes saw them all (but why would they vote if they didn’t? No one gives a shit about this category). So this is a potential winner, but it’s not one of the flashy ones. So personally, I say, take your shot with the obvious choices, and let the obscure one beat you, since the obvious choices are based on precedent and are really all we have to go by.
Those obvious choices, of course, are Helium and The Voorman Problem. The Voorman Problem has two big stars in it, and that can potentially sway voters. I think it might be a red herring, which is why I took Helium, and also because I’d kick myself if I didn’t take Helium and it won. So I’d rather lose with that than anything else (since I’m figuring I’ll lose). Helium is about a dying boy being told fantastic stories about the afterlife by the eccentric janitor of the hospital, and we see the fantasies play out on screen. I imagine that’ll tickle enough fancies to win, but again, I really don’t know. This might reek of a more serious nominee winning, like That Wasn’t Me or Just Before Losing Everything. The Shore won two years ago, and that wasn’t a clear choice. So do what you like here. Personally, I’m taking Helium, because — why the hell not?
Best Animated Short:
My personal choice: Get a Horse!
What you should take: Get a Horse!
What’s on my ballot: Get a Horse!
What will win if my pick doesn’t: Mr. Hublot
It’s between Get a Horse! and Mr. Hublot. Feral won’t win, and Room on the Broom has no substance to it. Possessions could be a spoiler, but I doubt it. It’s one or the other. Everyone saw Get a Horse!, it’s wildly inventive, played before Frozen, and might be more likely to triumph in an open vote. But, if no one does vote and it’s left to the animators, then Mr. Hublot might win, since that’s typically the thing they go for in this category. If this were last year, I’d be taking Mr. Hublot. So it depends on which you think wins out, the popularity of Get a Horse! or what the animators will typically go for. It’s either Get a Horse! or Mr. Hublot, and you probably couldn’t go wrong with either. Personally, in the first year of this new system, I’m taking the populist choice until I see how things turn out. It might be too popular to ignore. Who knows?
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