Oscars 2021: The B+ Nominations Ballot

It’s Monday. You know what that means.

A lot has happened in the past year. Namely, the site is being retired. Not that I’ll be gone for good (especially when it comes to Oscars), but it does mean that I’m in no mood to fuck about. Let’s get right into this shit.

I cut this article down to 20,000 words last year and now I’m aiming for 10,000. We’ll see how that goes. Now… turn to page 394.

Best Picture. They’re back to a set 10 nominees.

Since 2011, only 2 films have been nominated without a precursor (both had 4-5 other nominations) and the PGA alone has matched 77/86 nominees. In the two other years (2009, 2010) with a set list of 10, only The Blind Side got nominated without precursors.

Precursors:

• Belfast — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, SAG, Globes
• Don’t Look Up — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, SAG, Globes
• Dune — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Licorice Pizza — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Power of the Dog — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes*
• CODA — PGA, BFCA, SAG, Globes
• King Richard — PGA, BFCA, SAG, Globes
• Tick Tick Boom — PGA, BFCA, Globes
• West Side Story — PGA, BFCA, Globes*
• Being the Ricardos — PGA
• Nightmare Alley — BFCA
• House of Gucci — SAG
• Cyrano — Globes

9 films have at least three precursors, so guess all of those and then figure out the last spot.

There are 3-4 films without precursors I’d add as possibilities along with the 4 with just the one. So let’s talk about them all:

• Being the Ricardos — The PGA has been perfect 3 times this past decade but have never been 10/10. This is the obvious castoff. On the plus side, it’ll get Actress and Screenplay nominations, and Score seems reasonable too while Actor isn’t totally out of the question. It would fit as a nominee, even if it wouldn’t be a very spirited choice.
• Cyrano — Having the Globes as your lone precursor is the shakiest ground you can stand on. I bet you gotta go a ways back to find something that got nominated that way. So unless you think they like Joe Wright that much (it’s not Darkest Hour, which had Oldman spearheading it and a lot of sure tech noms. This might have Dinklage and maybe gets 2-3 tech noms, even though it could get shut out entirely). You can do it, but it feels really unlikely to expect this to get the most overall votes of any of these remaining choices.
• House of Gucci — It’s got SAG and could also end up with Actress, Supporting Actor, Costumes and Makeup. It fits, as much of an outlier as it might seem to people. It’ll be divisive, but as long as the support it has is strong, it could happen.
• The Lost Daughter — It’ll get Actress and probably Screenplay, and Supporting Actress, while unlikely, is in play. This is the exact type of film that would sneak on a set list of 10. 3 nominations has happened a few times since they expanded. This is firmly a contender.
• Nightmare Alley — Support has been mixed. It got the usual Guillermo tech support, but no Picture support outside of BFCA. My main question is how many people have this on their ballots. I’m thinking a fair amount. So it could happen. But I don’t feel as bullish about this as I do about some of these others, for whatever reason.
• The Tragedy of Macbeth — No precursors, but the Coens have snuck an unexpected Picture nominee before (A Serious Man). This probably makes the most sense to me of everything. It should get at least 2 other nominations and has Denzel and a Coen fronting it.
• A foreign language film (Drive My Car, A Hero, Hand of God, Worst Person in the World) — Drive My Car has the most overt support, getting BAFTA Director and Screenplay nominations. Is it liked widely enough to make Picture? Are any of them? The last film to do it was Amour (which had clear acting support). It’s a tough call to make, even though it could happen.

Really you’re just trying to guess which movie is gonna appear on the most ballots. Typically what you’re gonna see with any of the films in that final spot are either (or both) an acting or Screenplay nomination. Which means, to me, the films that make the most sense are Tragedy of Macbeth, The Lost Daughter and Being the Ricardos. Drive My Car/Hand of God are reasonable but a tougher ask. Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci also check all the boxes, but somehow feel less likely to me in that way I can only explain as experience and intuition.

The ‘safe’ choice is Being the Ricardos. The smart choices are either Tragedy of Macbeth or Lost Daughter. The bold choice is Drive My Car. Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci are both reasonable but I’d say are riskier than the others. I’m taking ‘Tragedy’ and seeing which way they end up going.

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

Tick… Tick… Boom!

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

First Alternate: The Lost Daughter

Dark Horse: Drive My Car

Surprise: Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley

Shocker: Cyrano, The French Dispatch, The Hand of God

Don’t guess: Probably anything else.

Would love to see: French Dispatch, Last Duel

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Director.

The DGA has only ever matched this category 5/5 eight times. Since 2000, they’ve matched 4/5 fifteen times. 5 directors this past decade got nominated without precursors (4 of them had Best Picture nominees).

Precursors:

• Campion — DGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Branagh — DGA, BFCA, Globes
• Spielberg — DGA, BFCA, Globes
• Villeneuve — DGA, BFCA, Globes
• Anderson — BAFTA, BFCA
• del Toro — BFCA
• Gyllenhaal — Globes
• Hamaguchi — BAFTA

The likeliest category is your DGA category, but as we know… 8 times ever. If I had to guess the most likely alternate, I’d say it’s Hamaguchi. Typically when they’ve missed lately (and it’s not an obvious person with a major Picture nominee), usually it’s a foreign nominee. Looking at the rest of the Picture contenders — Heder, Marcus-Green, Lin-Manuel, even Adan McKay… I don’t feel confident taking any of those. Guillermo? I mean, maybe. Unlikely, but maybe. Coen makes a lot of sense and feels like a legitimate dark horse. But outside of him, I’m thinking it’s most likely gonna be foreign if it’s anyone, and if it’s not Hamaguchi then I expect it to be Sorrentino.

I’m gonna guess the DGA category only because that does make the most sense to me, but I’m fully expecting to see someone else take one of these spots. If you wanna take a shot, you would be 100% in the right if you swapped Hamaguchi for Spielberg and guessed that category (or Coen for Spielberg, for that matter). That, to me, is the most likely alternate to what I’m guessing.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

First Alternate: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Dark Horse: Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Surprise: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up; Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God

Shocker: Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Tick… Tick… Boom!

Don’t guess: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter; Sian Heder, CODA; Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos; Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (or The Last Duel); Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

Would love to see: Wes Anderson

– – – – – – – – – –

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Actor.

Since 2001, only 3 actors have been nominated without precursors (all of whom you saw coming). SAG alone has never matched less than 3/5 and went 4/5 or 5/5 eight times this past decade.

Precursors:

• Cumberbatch — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Smith — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes*
• Garfield — SAG, BFCA, Globes*
• Washington — SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Bardem — SAG, Globes
• Ali — BAFTA, Globes
• DiCaprio — BAFTA, Globes
• Dinklage — BFCA, Globes
• Cage — BFCA
• Hoffman — Globes
• Ramos — Globes

Four of these (Cumberbatch, Smith, Garfield, Denzel) should be locked. The only question is (and has always been) that fifth spot.

Bardem got SAG, but that’s a popularity contest. Mahershala got BAFTA, but they have their own questions now (plus his film will not be nominated anywhere else, so you have questions about who’s actually seen it). DiCaprio got BAFTA, and maybe that’s the answer? I feel like we’d all be a little puzzled by that as a choice though, which probably means it’s not very likely. Dinklage has the stature and the role, but missing that major precursor that would make him a sure thing. The rest I can’t see happening. And given how no one’s gotten on without a precursor without you knowing they were coming and how the only foreign nominees that’ve happened recently either had precursors or came along with someone else from their film… we’re pretty much left with what we’ve got.

To me, the easiest choice is Dinklage. I’m just gonna take him and let them put Leo or Mahershala or whoever else on. I’m not gonna lose sleep over this.

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Andrew Garfield, Tick… Tick… Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

First Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Dark Horse: Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Surprise: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos; Jude Hill, Belfast

Shocker: Nicolas Cage, Pig; Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza; Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

Don’t guess: Adam Driver, House of Gucci; Daniel Craig, No Time to Die; Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Would love to see: I’m happy with the category I guessed.

– – – – – – – – – –

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Actress.

Since 2001, only 2 actresses were nominated without precursors (none since 2007), SAG has never been below 3/5 and were 4/5 or 5/5 seven times this past decade.

Precursors:

• Gaga — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Chastain — SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Colman — SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Kidman — SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Haim — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Stewart — BFCA, Globes
• Hudson — SAG
• Jones — BAFTA
• Reinsve — BAFTA
• Thompson — BAFTA
• Lawrence — Globes
• Zegler — Globes

This is another category where four should be pretty locked. Gaga is the only person to hit every single precursor, so you gotta guess her. Chastian, Colman and Kidman hit everything but BAFTA (and based on their past two years, the exclusion doesn’t mean much). So that leaves one spot.

I’m gonna tell you not to guess Lawrence for obvious reasons. I’m also gonna say don’t guess Zegler with just the one precursor. Thompson would be a surprise at best, but isn’t impossible. Hudson only has SAG (which… popularity contest). I don’t think anyone who knows what they’re doing truly expects that to happen unless they’re even more cynical than I am. Reinsve is an intriguing choice, but at best feels like a dark horse. Jones… I’d want another precursor before I went there just because of how insular that Academy voting body is. But I’d fully welcome her getting on.

The two that make the most sense to me are Stewart and Haim. Stewart has been knocking at the door for her first nomination for a while now and nothing fits better than this role. She missed both SAG and BAFTA but somehow I don’t know how much that hurts her (Regina King missed both and won). And Haim… she’s got BAFTA, which is significant. But the Academy voting body, unless they really love the film (and they might) might look at her as too new/unproven. But they also like first-timers and break their own unwritten rules constantly, so who the hell knows. Either way, I think your best bet is taking one of them. I’m sticking with Stewart, but I could very easily see Haim being the one that makes it.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

First Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Dark Horse: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Surprise: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Shocker: Emilia Jones, CODA; Tessa Thompson, Passing; Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Don’t guess: Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up; Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Would love to see: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel; Isabelle Fuhrman, The Novice

– – – – – – – – – –

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Supporting Actor.

Since 2001, 6 actors have been nominated without precursors (3 this decade) and SAG this past decade is largely 4/5s with two 3/5s and one 2/5.

Precursors:

• Smit-McPhee — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Kotsur — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Hinds — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Leto — SAG, BFCA
• Affleck — SAG, Globes
• Dornan — BFCA, Globes
• Cooper — SAG
• Faist — BAFTA
• Norman — BAFTA
• Plemons — BAFTA
• Simmons — BFCA

There’s always one acting category where only 3/5 are locked and it makes you nervous. Welcome to 2021’s. Smit-McPhee, Kotsur and Hinds are the locked three and should be guessed no matter what. Past that, you got decisions to make.

Typically what I’ve found in these Supporting categories is, when SAG is wrong, it’s either because they left off an obvious nominee (which they didn’t do this year) or someone comes along with a strong film and ends up taking the spot of the person who would’ve been their film’s only nomination. I guess this is all prelude to saying… don’t guess Affleck just because he made SAG (or Cate Blanchett in the next category). I shouldn’t have to tell you this, but you never know. I don’t see why Affleck in a film they didn’t particularly see (or like) would make it on when they could just as easily bring along a Jamie Dornan or Jared Leto or Bradley Cooper for a film that’s all over the ballot that everyone saw. Last year, perfect example: Jared Leto gets nominated at SAG and the Globes The Little Things (no one really saw it and the reception was ‘ehh’) What happens? He gets left off. For who? LaKeith Stanfield, coming along with Daniel Kaluuya in a movie that wound up with 6 nominations. To me, that’s the deciding factor for how I’m gonna guess.

So now: Leto. SAG, BFCA. Easy come-along with Gaga (and potentially the film). He fits. I know it’s a divisive performance, but he fits. Dornan. BFCA, Globes. Film’s gonna be nominated all over. Sure, another nominee in the category, but that’s happened the past four consecutive years. Absolutely he’s a contender if they love the film that much. Cooper. Only a SAG nomination. Which makes me question if it’s just because of who he is. However, the film clearly has support. Plus you know the old adage of how Picture nominees usually have at least one acting nomination. If Haim doesn’t make it, he’s an easy add. Simmons… don’t see it, but it’s not out of the question. Would be coming along with Kidman (and potentially Bardem). Plemons would be coming along with Cumberbatch, Dunst, Smit-McPhee and the film, which, like Belfast, is gonna be nominated all over. And Faist comes along with DeBose and the film. These all make some amount of sense to me and it really comes down to how you reason it out.

Because I have two spots to mess with… I don’t think I’m gonna guess Faist or Simmons and will just let them happen (Faist feels possible though, while Simmons doesn’t). I’m obviously not gonna guess Affleck or Norman. Plemons… after LaKeith last year, he’s awful tempting to me. But (and this applies to Faist as well), only 3 actors have been nominated since 2010 with only BAFTA, and only one was Supporting (Lesley Manville). So I don’t know. They clearly like him, though, and it might be a way to get him his first nomination. And Dornan… he just doesn’t feel like an actor who they’re gonna nominate. Sometimes you just get that vibe.

I think I’m gonna go Cooper and Plemons. I wanna take Leto, but something about how over-the-top that performance gets tells me people might shy away from it. So I’ll take a flyer on Plemons and balance it with Cooper because they love him. I feel like I’ve got a good chance at getting at least one of those right.

I say, pick the obvious three and as long as your final two are some combination of Cooper, Leto, Plemons and Dornan, you should be able to sneak out a 4/5 here.

Best Supporting Actor

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

First Alternate: Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Dark Horse: Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Surprise: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Mike Faist, West Side Story

Shocker: David Alvarez, West Side Story; Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon; J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Don’t guess: Benicio del Toro, The French Dispatch; Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Al Pacino, House of Gucci

Would love to see: Alvarez (or Faist, honestly)

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Supporting Actress.

Since 2001, 5 actresses have been nominated without precursors (all of whom came along with another nominee). SAG hasn’t gone below 3/5 since 2001 but do have four 3/5s this past decade.

Precursors:

• Balfe — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• DeBose — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Negga — SAG, BAFTA, Globes
• Dunst — SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Ellis — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Dowd — BAFTA, BFCA
• Blanchett — SAG
• Buckley — BAFTA
• Moreno — BFCA

There’s also always one acting category that feels totally locked all the way through. That’s this one. Balfe and DeBose hit everything and Dunst, Ellis and Negga hit 3/4. That’s an easy five and I’m hard-pressed to find a legitimate alternate. Ann Dowd’s film has no visibility, Blanchett was just a popularity vote and will never happen, Buckley feels super unlikely and Moreno would be a veteran nomination the likes of which I haven’t seen in over a decade.

The only person who makes any kind of sense as a surprise is Judi Dench. Because if they really like Belfast the way it seem like they might… plus, she’s a previous winner who everyone loves. If I’m guessing anyone outside the obvious five, it’s her.

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

First Alternate: Judi Dench, Belfast

Dark Horse: Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Surprise: Ann Dowd, Mass; Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Shocker: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley; Ann Dowd, Mass; Marlee Matlin, CODA

Don’t guess: Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos; Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

Would love to see: Hunter

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Original Screenplay.

This past decade, only 2 scripts got nominated despite missing the WGA and being WGA-eligible and only 3 scripts were nominated without precursors. So, WGA first (always check the ineligibles), precursors second, then look for respected writers and films broadly in contention.

Precursors:

• Being the Ricardos — WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Don’t Look Up — WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Licorice Pizza — WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• King Richard — WGA, BAFTA, BFCA
• Belfast — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes*
• The French Dispatch — WGA

This one’s obvious. Only six films have precursors and the only reason the sixth is even there is because one of the other five was WGA ineligible. This is a done deal.

Best Original Screenplay

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

First Alternate: The French Dispatch

Dark Horse: C’mon C’mon

Surprise: The Card Counter, The Hand of God

Shocker: A Hero; Parallel Mothers; The Worst Person in the World

Don’t guess: Probably anything else.

Would love to see: French Dispatch

– – – – – – – – – –

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Adapted Screenplay.

4 scripts were nominated this past decade despite missing WGA and being WGA-eligible. Only 1 got nominated without a precursor, and it was a Coen brothers script. So again, WGA (check the ineligibles), other precursors, respected writers.

Precursors:

• CODA — WGA, BAFTA, BFCA
• Dune — WGA, BAFTA, BFCA
• Power of the Dog — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• West Side Story — WGA, BFCA
• Lost Daughter — BAFTA, BFCA
• Nightmare Alley — WGA
• Tick Tick Boom — WGA
• Drive My Car — BAFTA

WGA ineligible: Power of the Dog, Lost Daughter, Drive My Car

CODA and Dune hit everything, so start with those. Power of the Dog only missed WGA because it was ineligible. That’s three. Lost Daughter I assume only missed WGA because it was ineligible, so that’s four. And for five… West Side Story is Tony Kushner. I suspect that’s enough for them to go there, even though there’s a legitimate chance Drive My Car (especially if it gets nominated for Picture) takes that fifth spot (musicals also tend to find a way to not get nominated). Otherwise, Nightmare Alley and Tick Tick Boom feel like they only got WGA because other stuff was ineligible, and while you can never count out a Coen… it’s Shakespeare. The last time that happened was Branagh’s Hamlet.

I’m gonna take the obvious five and let Drive My Car or whatever beat me. I’m fine with that.

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

First Alternate: Drive My Car

Dark Horse: Tick… Tick… Boom!

Surprise: Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Shocker: Cyrano, House of Gucci, Passing

Don’t guess: The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Green Knight, The Last Duel, No Time to Die

Would love to see: Last Duel

– – – – – – – – – –

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Editing.

In the past decade, only 4 non-Best Picture nominees were nominated for Editing, all of which had 3-5 total nominations (and were ACE-nominated), and only 2 films since 2009 were nominated without a precursor (both Picture nominees). Since 2000, ACE has been 4/5 or 5/5 all but 3 times (only one of which came this past decade). Stick with the Picture contenders and use the precursors as best you can.

Precursors:

• Belfast — ACE, BAFTA, BFCA
• Dune — ACE, BAFTA, BFCA
• Licorice Pizza — ACE, BAFTA, BFCA
• Power of the Dog — ACE, BFCA
• No Time to Die — ACE, BAFTA
• King Richard — ACE
• Cruella — ACE
• Don’t Look Up — ACE
• French Dispatch — ACE
• Tick Tick Boom — ACE
• West Side Story — BFCA

Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza and Power of the Dog hit every precursor. Not only is that four, those are the obvious four. The obvious fifth is West Side Story. I’m slightly concerned because it missed ACE, and as I talk my way through these categories I can so easily see it coming in weaker than anticipated. But, if you’re gonna take it off, the question is what you put on. King Richard, Don’t Look Up and Tick Tick Boom are the obvious alternatives (I don’t see CODA making it). I guess the answer is Don’t Look Up. But honestly, I’ll take the musical and let something else beat me.

Best Editing

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

First Alternate: Don’t Look Up

Dark Horse: King Richard

Surprise: Tick… Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Shocker: CODA, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die

Don’t guess: Being the Ricardos, Cruella, French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Last Duel

Would love to see: Last Duel

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Cinematography.

Only 3 films since 2009 have been nominated without precursors and ASC alone is 4/5 or 5/5 every year since 2006. Usually this category’s pretty obvious.

Precursors:

• Dune — ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
• Nightmare Alley — ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
• Power of the Dog — ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
• Tragedy of Macbeth — ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
• Belfast — ASC, BFCA
• No Time to Die — BAFTA
• West Side Story — BFCA

Well this is easy. Four movies hit everything. Take them. Belfast missed only BAFTA, and it was for a Bond movie that’s not gonna make it on. So your fifth choice is either Belfast or West Side Story. And given where both films are trending (and their love of black and white)… probably go with Belfast. It’s five from six. You’re gonna be fine no matter what happens.

Best Cinematography

Belfast

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

First Alternate: West Side Story

Dark Horse: Licorice Pizza

Surprise: The French Dispatch, No Time to Die

Shocker: C’mon C’mon, The Hand of God, Last Night in Soho

Don’t guess: Cyrano, House of Gucci, King Richard, The Last Duel

Would love to see: French Dispatch

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Score.

Shortlist:

Being the Ricardos (Daniel Pemberton)
Candyman (Robert Aiki Aubrey Lowe)
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat)
The Green Knight (Daniel Hart)
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)
King Richard (Kris Bowers)
The Last Duel (Harry Gregson-Williams)
No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
Spencer (Jonny Greenwood)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Carter Burwell)

Sine 2010, 5 scores have been nominated without precursors (no more than one in a single year). Since the shortlists began, only one score (Da 5 Bloods) was nominated without a precursor.

Precursors:

• Dune — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes*
• Power of the Dog — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Don’t Look Up — BAFTA, BFCA
• French Dispatch — BAFTA, Globes
• Being the Ricardos — BAFTA
• Spencer — BFCA
• Encanto — Globes
• Parallel Mothers — Globes

Dune and Power of the Dog hit everything, so those should be automatic. French Dispatch is Desplat doing Wes Anderson, which is practically automatic at this point (plus 2/3 precursors ain’t bad). Don’t Look Up also has 2/3 and is Nicholas Britell who is twice nominated (albeit for Barry Jenkins films). Seems reasonable enough to me (especially since the film figures to come in stronger than expected, like Vice did).

Last spot — Jonny Greenwood only just got his first nomination after years of disrespect, and now they’re gonna put him on twice in the same category? So let’s leave Spencer off (plus that film looks like it’ll get shut out entirely if Stewart doesn’t make it, so even more reason). Encanto… Pixar gets nominated in Score, not Disney. You know the last Disney score to be nominated? Mulan. 1998. So yeah, probably just let that one happen. Parallel Mothers… Iglesias has been nominated 3 times, but none since 2011 and never for Almodovar. However if you’re one of those people looking to predict a surprise Penelope Cruz Actress nomination, Iglesias isn’t a bad side play. Being the Ricardos is the one that makes the most sense. Pemberton has been slowly gaining traction with the branch and just got his first nomination (for Song) last year. He and the film both fit here.

If you’re gonna look at something without a precursor, know this: of the 5 scores that got nominated without any, 4 of the films had 2+ nominations and 4 of the composers had been nominated before. So Candyman, Green Knight, Last Duel and Harder They Fall — composers have never been nominated and the films probably won’t be nominated anywhere else (though Harder They Fall could get Song). King Richard, though… 4-5 other nominations and Bowers has technically been nominated (albeit in Doc Short, not here). That one’s a sneaky good guess if you wanna take a shot. No Time to Die… Zimmer’s already in the category. A double up feels unlikely (plus only two Bond Scores have ever been nominated). Tragedy of Macbeth… Carter Burwell. Nominated twice and always feels like a sneaky contender. If the film didn’t have so little music going on, I’d almost immediately have put him on. I still think he’s a great flyer if you wanna take a chance.

All that being said, I’m gonna put Being the Ricardos as my fifth and see which way they go. I say you should put either that, Tragedy of Macbeth or maybe King Richard as your fifth for the best possible chance (with Spencer or Harder They Fall as more exotic plays).

Best Original Score

Being the Ricardos

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The French Dispatch

The Power of the Dog

First Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Dark Horse: Spencer

Surprise: The Harder They Fall, King Richard

Shocker: Encanto, The Last Duel, Parallel Mothers

Don’t guess: Candyman, The Green Knight, No Time to Die

Would love to see: Last Duel

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Song.

Shortlist:

“The Anonymous Ones,” from Dear Evan Hansen
“Automatic Woman,” from Bruised
“Be Alive,” from King Richard
“Beyond the Shore,” from CODA
“Dos Oruguitas,” from Encanto
“Down to Joy,” from Belfast
“Dream Girl,” from Cinderella
“Guns Go Bang,” from The Harder They Fall
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect
“Just Look Up,” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die,” from No Time to Die
“Right Where I Belong,” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
“So May We Start?” from Annette
“Somehow You Do,” from Four Good Days
“Your Song Saved My Life,” from Sing 2

Since the shortlists began, the precursors are 4/5, 4/5, 5/5. Usually you can reason your way through this one pretty easily. After that, you hope for the best. Also, Diane Warren has been nominated in this category every year except one since 2014.

Precursors:

• “Be Alive” — BFCA, Globes
• “Dos Oruguitas” — BFCA, Globes
• “No Time to Die” — BFCA, Globes
• “Down to Joy” — Globes
• “Guns Go Bang” — Globes
• “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Globes
• “Just Look Up” — Globes

Billie Eilish and Lin-Manuel are gonna be nominated, so start there. And at this point, you’re an idiot if you don’t guess Diane Warren, so just put “Somehow You Do” on and let them decide to leave her off for once. That’s three. Van Morrison… Belfast… seems like a no-brainer, I’m just gonna be wrong if they don’t. That’s four.

Fifth spot… are they really gonna nominate Beyoncé? I mean, the film has support and Will Smith is out there stumping for it. So maybe he can get her across. But the music branch hasn’t really ever gone there and something tells me they still won’t. Same for “Guns Go Bang.” It’s really not their style. HOWEVER… the Respect song… Jennifer Hudson singing, an Aretha biopic, and Carole King co-wrote it. Sure sounds like them to me. Maybe I’m way off base (and maybe they have changed), but it’s Song. I expect to get one, if not two, wrong here.

Also — “Just Look Up” feels like it could happen but isn’t likely. “So May We Start” would surprise (and delight) me, but I can’t assume they’re gonna do it. And “Automatic Woman” is H.E.R., who won last year. Not the worst song to guess.

Otherwise… don’t guess Evan Hansen or Cinderella. I think Brian Wilson only got on the shortlist out of respect. CODA… there’s a song like this shortlisted every year (Sound of Metal had one last year). They don’t get on. Just let it beat you. And U2… I mean, I guess? Feels very unlikely to me, but I couldn’t really argue if you said you were going for it.

I’m good with my five, I’ll let Beyonce beat me and will hope that if I’m wrong, it’s for Sparks.

Best Original Song

“Dos Oruguitas,” from Encanto

“Down to Joy,” from Belfast

“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect

“No Time to Die,” from No Time to Die

“Somehow You Do,” from Four Good Days

First Alternate: “Be Alive,” from King Richard

Dark Horse: “So May We Start?” from Annette

Surprise: “Guns Go Bang,” from The Harder They Fall; “Just Look Up,” from Don’t Look Up

Shocker: “Automatic Woman,” from Bruised; “Beyond the Shore,” from CODA; “Your Song Saved My Life,” from Sing 2

Don’t guess: “The Anonymous Ones,” from Dear Evan Hansen; “Dream Girl,” from Cinderella; “Right Where I Belong,” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road

Would love to see: “So May We Start”

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Production Design.

Only 2 films since 2009 have been nominated without precursors (none since 2011). ADG alone has missed only 4 total nominees since 2010 (with BAFTA picking up 3 of the 4). And now, with the Set Decorators having awards too, it’s hard to imagine something comes out of nowhere.

Precursors:

• Dune — ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, BFCA
• French Dispatch — ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, BFCA
• Nightmare Alley — ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, BFCA
• West Side Story — ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, BFCA
• Cruella — ADG, SDSA
• Don’t Look Up — ADG, SDSA
• Licorice Pizza — ADG, SDSA
• The Lost Daughter — ADG, SDSA
• No Time to Die — ADG, SDSA
• Tragedy of Macbeth — ADG, SDSA
• Cyrano — BAFTA, SDSA
• Ghostbusters: Afterlife — ADG
• In the Heights — ADG
• The Green Knight — ADG
• Shang-Chi — ADG
• Being the Ricardos — SDSA
• Hand of God — SDSA
• House of Gucci — SDSA
• The King’s Man — SDSA
• The Matrix Resurrections — SDSA
• Power of the Dog — SDSA
• Spider-Man: No Way Home — SDSA
• Tick Tick Boom — SDSA
• Belfast — BFCA

Four of these seem really fucking easy. So pick them and figure out your fifth. Also, if only 1 movie in the past decade got nominated outside ADG and BAFTA, probably limit your focus to just those. Which weirdly rules out both Belfast and Power of the Dog. So we’ll see if that holds.

But, keeping those two out for now, I narrowed my choices down to the films that would make sense here. Of them, House of Gucci and Being the Ricardos only hit SDSA. Which, I don’t know what to make of them yet (it’s like when they added the essay onto the SAT. Took a few years). Plus Gucci is barely a period piece and Being the Ricardos has almost nothing memorable about its production design. They both feel unlikely even without ADG/BAFTA.

Everything else has hit two precursors. Cruella, Licorice Pizza and Tragedy of Macbeth have ADG/SDSA, while Cyrano has BAFTA/SDSA. Licorice Pizza feels most unlikely, since while they love LA, the 70s is a little too recent (plus Inherent Vice was left off), so I’m shying away from that. Cyrano feels like a really cynical choice and honestly I’m just gonna let them go there if that’s what they want to do. It feels like them 15 years ago, not them now. Cruella makes a lot of sense here. Beauty and the Beast, Mary Poppins, Into the Woods, Alice in Wonderland… Disney gets on here. However, Tragedy of Macbeth has a higher profile and it’s pretty out there that they built every inch of that set on a stage to make it look the way it does. I feel like that’s probably the choice.

Long story short: take the obvious four and your fifth spot should be either Tragedy of Macbeth, Cruella or Cyrano for the best shot at it (with Power of the Dog and Belfast also as reasonable choices given their overall support, even if the data calls them unlikely).

Best Production Design

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

First Alternate: Cruella

Dark Horse: The Power of the Dog

Surprise: Belfast, Cyrano

Shocker: Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza

Don’t guess: Don’t Look Up, The Green Knight, No Time to Die, Tick… Tick… Boom!

Would love to see: I’m happy so long as French Dispatch and West Side Story both get on.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Costumes.

Since 2009, 6 films have been nominated without a precursor, never more than one in a single year. CDG has been 4/5 or 5/5 every year but two (both 3/5) since 2005. Check the precursors, look at the most-nominated designers and then look for frills. You should be fine.

Precursors:

• Cruella — CDG, BAFTA, BFCA
• Dune — CDG, BAFTA, BFCA
• Nightmare Alley — CDG, BAFTA, BFCA
• Cyrano — CDG, BAFTA
• House of Gucci — CDG, BFCA
• West Side Story — CDG, BFCA
• The Green Knight — CDG
• French Dispatch — BAFTA

Limited field here, huh? I also can’t think of any frills, so I guess this’ll be quick.

Cruella, Dune and Nightmare Alley have hit everything, so I’m taking them. I’m never gonna guess Green Knight, so that leaves Cyrano, House of Gucci, French Dispatch and West Side Story. I’m also moderately surprised Spencer or Tragedy of Macbeth didn’t get any precursors. I guess I just have to let those beat me.

House of Gucci is literally about the costumes, and while I’m worried it might be too close to contemporary for them, I’m taking it until the wheels fall off. French Dispatch… they love Milena (4 wins) and Grand Budapest won, so it’s obviously a contender. But I may not have space for it. West Side Story could get let off. Its designer has never been nominated. But to me, those costumes are more memorable than almost anything else in this entire category, so I’m just gonna guess it. And then Cyrano… one of its designers was nominated for Pinocchio and the other is Jacqueline Durran (who’s won twice). Durran also did Spencer (also fully reasonable as a guess despite zero precursors). Also Mark Bridges (4 nominations this decade, 1 win and nominated for Inherent Vice) has Licorice Pizza and Mary Zophres (3 nominations this decade, 2 for Coen movies) has Tragedy of Macbeth. Just saying.

I’m taking the obvious three and then I’m not gonna not guess House of Gucci or West Side Story. So my category was basically made for me. Cyrano, French Dispatch, Spencer, Tragedy of Macbeth and Licorice Pizza all seem like reasonable guesses as well, though. It’s Costumes. I expect 3/5 and hope for better. Take what feels best to you. You can go about seven deep here.

Best Costume Design

Cruella

Dune

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

First Alternate: Cyrano

Dark Horse: The French Dispatch

Surprise: Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Shocker: Being the Ricardos, Last Night in Soho, Licorice Pizza

Don’t guess: Belfast, The Green Knight, The Last Duel, The Power of the Dog

Would love to see: Last Duel

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Makeup & Hairstyling.

Shortlist:

Coming 2 America
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Suicide Squad
West Side Story

All you need to know: 1) if it has no precursors and isn’t foreign, it never gets nominated, 2) always bet on the acting transformations, 3) use the precursors and basic logic.

Precursors:

• Eyes of Tammy Faye — M+HS x3, BAFTA, BFCA
• House of Gucci — M+HS x3, BAFTA, BFCA
• Cruella — M+HS x2, BAFTA, BFCA
• Dune — M+HS x2, BAFTA, BFCA
• Coming 2 America — M+HS x3
• Suicide Squad — M+HS x2
• No Time to Die — M+HS x2
• West Side Story — M+HS
• Cyrano — BAFTA
• Nightmare Alley — BFCA

Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, Cruella and Dune hit every precursor they could possibly hit. Seems like you should guess them. Then all you gotta do is pick a fifth. Nightmare Alley and No Time to Die feel like the longest shots on the board, so I’d say skip them. Cyrano I’m gonna let beat me. It just feels unlikely. West Side Story… I’ve been hinting at it throughout the article, but if there’s any one film to fade this year, it’s that one. Part of me just feels like that’s gonna end up with way fewer nominations than we’re all predicting. And this is one of those categories where… does it really need to get on? I’m thinking it misses. Coming 2 America I worry they look at as a terrible movie, despite all the transformations, and that’ll be what keeps it off. Meanwhile the first Suicide Squad won this category, there’s still the Harley Quinn makeup and the dude with the metal shit sticking out of his head. I’ll take that and see what they do.

This feels like a six-for-five situation, and even if they pick something weird in the last spot you’re still mostly covered.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

The Suicide Squad

First Alternate: Coming 2 America

Dark Horse: West Side Story

Surprise: Cyrano, Nightmare Alley

Shocker: No Time to Die

Would love to see: I’m happy with the category I guessed.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Visual Effects.

Shortlist:

Black Widow
Dune
Eternals
Free Guy
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

This past decade, only 5 films got nominated without hitting either of VES’ main two categories or BAFTA (one was Kubo, though, which was its own circumstance, so 4). And last year was the first time since 2014. Between VES and BAFTA, you’re usually okay.

Precursors (* = VES Best Effects nomination):

• Dune — VES x6*, BAFTA, BFCA
• Shang-Chi — VES x4*, BFCA
• Matrix Resurrections — VES x 2*, BAFTA, BFCA
• No Time to Die — VES*, BAFTA, BFCA
• Godzilla vs. Kong — VES x3*
• Spider-Man — VES x3*
• Free Guy — BAFTA
• Ghostbusters — BAFTA
• Black Widow — VES x2
• Eternals — VES

I’m gonna start by saying don’t guess Eternals or Black Widow. That should be self-explanatory.

I don’t see why you wouldn’t put Dune, Matrix or Shang-Chi on your list. They all hit everything strongly. After that… Spider-Man. Given all the clamoring for it, it seems weird they’d leave it off (even though I’d be pretty fine with that). Plus it was ineligible for BAFTA, so who’s to say they wouldn’t have nominated it too? So that’s four.

Now, No Time to Die has the most amount of precursors of the remaining films. But the last time a Bond film has been nominated was 1979. It’s really hard to see it happening now, so I’m just gonna let them do it. That leaves Ghostbusters, Free Guy and Godzilla vs. Kong. And just looking at that… Godzilla vs. Kong is the exact CGI monstrosity they love to nominate. Skull Island got nominated. Why would I think this won’t? And I’d be happier if I had it on and were wrong than the other way around. So that’s my fifth. Simple as that. I’ll just let Free Guy or Ghostbusters beat me.

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Godzilla vs. Kong

The Matrix Resurrections

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

First Alternate: No Time to Die

Dark Horse: Free Guy

Surprise: Black Widow, Ghostbusters: Afterlife

Shocker: Eternals

Would love to see: Godzilla vs. Kong not make it on, honestly.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Sound.

Shortlist:

Belfast
Dune
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Tick… Tick… Boom!
West Side Story

Since 2000, only 1 movie has been nominated for Sound without a precursor, and it was a Hobbit movie. So that plus this new shortlist… I think we can probably figure this out pretty easily.

Precursors:

• Dune — CAS, MPSE x3, BAFTA
• No Time to Die — CAS, BAFTA, MPSE x2
• West Side Story — CAS, BAFTA, MPSE
• The Power of the Dog — CAS, MPSE
• Spider-Man: No Way Home — CAS, MPSE
• A Quiet Place Part II — MPSE x3, BAFTA
• Last Night in Soho — MPSE, BAFTA
• The Matrix Resurrections — MPSE x3
• Belfast — MPSE
• Tick… Tick… Boom! — MPSE

Dune, No Time to Die and West Side Story hit all the precursors. Also, objectively, would you really not guess Dune or West Side Story? And considering Skyfall won this category, it seems reasonable to include No Time to Die as well.

Past that — Tick Tick Boom and Belfast barely hit precursors, and I’ve already got a musical on and will likely have a different second Picture nominee on. I feel okay leaving both of those off. And while I know Edgar Wright got on with Baby Driver, I don’t see how I could guess Last Night in Soho. If there were two categories, sure. Films like that pulled a stray Sound nomination all the time. But one? I gotta see it. So I’ll just let it beat me. The Matrix… nominated all over MPSE but nowhere else. Considering the alternatives, it feels more likely to be an alternate that could happen rather than something that will happen. Spider-Man… only two Marvel movies have ever been nominated for Sound (Iron Man, Black Panther). CAS has nominated no less than five superhero movies since 2008 (and not even Black Panther). At best I would consider it a pretty big surprise if it happened and would strongly urge you not to guess it and just let it beat you.

The two I’m going for are Power of the Dog (if Birdman got two Sound nominations, why won’t this, a western, get on?) and Quiet Place. The first Quiet Place got a Sound nomination after loads of precursors, so it’s hard for me to think they’ll leave this one off. And honestly, if I’m wrong, I’m assuming it’s probably because of The Matrix, which I can live with.

Best Sound

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

A Quiet Place Part II

West Side Story

First Alternate: The Matrix Resurrections

Dark Horse: Belfast

Surprise: Last Night in Soho, Tick… Tick… Boom!

Shocker: Spider-Man: No Way Home

Would love to see: Last Night in Soho

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Animated Feature.

You can look up the full eligibles list here.

Only 4 films have ever been nominated (and only 1 since 2004) that scored below 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (one was 69%). Only 2 films have ever been nominated without a precursor (for the Annies that means Best Feature/Indie Feature), both happening before the PGA. And, only 1 nominee ever (Ferdinand) has only been nominated by the PGA.

Precursors (* = Annie nom for Feature/Indie Feature):

• Encanto — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes*, Annies x9*
• Luca — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes, Annies x8*
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Annies x8*
• Raya and the Last Dragon — PGA, BFCA, Globes, Annies x10*
• Flee — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes, Annies x4*
• Sing 2 — PGA, Annies*
• My Sunny Maad — Globes
• Belle — Annies x5*
• Vivo — Annies x5
• Ron’s Gone Wrong — Annies x2
• Addams Family 2 — Annies x2
• Boss Baby: Family Business — Annies
• Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko — Annies*
• Pompo the Cinephile — Annies*
• Poupelle of Chimney Town — Annies
• Spirit Untamed — Annies
• Summit of the Gods — Annies*
• Wish Dragon — Annies

There are five insanely obvious choices here. The only question you have ask yourself is, “Will they nominate both Disney films?” That’s it. If you think Encanto and Raya are both good enough to overcome the Disney Antitrust Bias, take them. Otherwise, find an alternate. Then the question becomes what. Belle actually has less precedent than all three getting nominated and narratively isn’t really their style. My Sunny Maad would be a hell of a pull. But this isn’t 2015. They changed the voting specifically so lesser known stuff wouldn’t make it on. Ron’s Gone Wrong… do people even know it exists? Vivo’s the only film you could legitimately tell me is the one that’ll make it. And if you wanna take that on an anti-Disney play, be my guest (or rather… be our guest).

I’m taking the obvious five and will just let them sort it out however they want. I’m covered.

Best Animated Feature

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

First Alternate: Vivo

Dark Horse: My Sunny Maad

Surprise: Belle, Ron’s Gone Wrong

Shocker: The Boss Baby: Family Business, Sing 2, The Summit of the Gods

Don’t guess: Any of the others

Would love to see: Summit of the Gods

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

International Feature.

Shortlist:

Great Freedom (Austria)
Playground (Belgium)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Flee (Denmark)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland)
A Hero (Iran)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Hive (Kosovo)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Plaza Catedral (Panama)
The Good Boss (Spain)

This category is a unique entity every single year. But, you can look at how each country has fared historically to give you an edge (you can read my breakdown of all that here).

Precursors:

• Drive My Car — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes*, Indie Spirit
• Hand of God — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Worst Person in the World — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• A Hero — BFCA, Globes, NBR*
• Compartment No. 6 — Globes, Indie Spirit
• Flee — BFCA
• Lamb — NBR
• Prayers for the Stolen — Indie Spirit

I’ve never seen an International Feature category that’s so loaded with ‘known’ entities. At this point, how can you not guess the obvious five? Drive My Car has an outside Picture chance, Hand of God is Sorrentino, A Hero is Farhadi, Worst Person in the World has a BAFTA Actress nomination and loads of precursors and Flee is probably gonna be nominated in two other categories. Unless they choose violence, aren’t you in the best possible situation guessing all those and just letting them leave one, maybe two off?

Now, I will say… I do think that Flee is most likely to get left off here than the other two categories. Mostly due to the amount of other choices and lack of space (coupled with people knowing that it’ll probably get on elsewhere). But I’m not sure I can assume that.

The most likely film to get on in the event something is left off is Compartment 6. Also, knowing this branch, A Yak in the Classroom fits them to a tee, and any other year I’d 100% have it on my list. I also feel like Great Freedom (admittedly the only one I haven’t seen) is another that could so easily get on. Plaza Catedral… 50/50. The rest I feel sufficiently okay about not guessing. But again… all predicated on them choosing violence and nuking the obvious category.

Best International Feature

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

A Hero

The Worst Person in the World

First Alternate: Compartment No. 6

Dark Horse: Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

Surprise: Great Freedom, Plaza Catedral

Shocker: I’m Your Man, Playground, Prayers for the Stolen

Don’t guess: The Good Boss, Hive, Lamb

Would love to see: Playground

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Documentary Feature.

Shortlist:

Ascension
Attica
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry
Faya Dayi
The First Wave
Flee
In the Same Breath
Julia
President
Procession
The Rescue
Simple as Water
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
The Velvet Underground
Writing with Fire

There is no method to this category. Look at the precursors, look at what’s been nominated in recent years/what they usually go for and hope for the best. (Breakdown of the shortlist is here.)

Precursors:

• Summer of Soul — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA x6 (6 wins), NBR, Indie Spirit
• The Rescue — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA x5 (3 wins), NBR
• Flee — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA x2, NBR, Indie Spirit
• Ascension — PGA, BFCA x6, NBR, Indie Spirit
• The First Wave — PGA
• In the Same Breath — PGA
• Simple as Water — PGA
• Writing with Fire — PGA
• Attica — BFCA x 3, NBR
• Faya Dayi — BFCA x2
• The First Wave — BFCA x2
• Julia — BFCA x2
• Procession — BFCA, Indie Spirit
• Billie Eilish: The World’s a little Blurry — BFCA
• In the Same Breath — NBR

No proper guess list should be missing Summer of Soul, The Rescue or Flee. They could easily leave Summer of Soul off (and routinely do leave the best documentary off), but that doesn’t mean you should assume they’re gonna do that. Also, look at all that precursor support for Ascension. Stands to reason that should make it too. Fifth spot… guess. This category is always a minefield.

I’ve seen 12 of these, and based on that and what I generally know about this branch, I feel very confident that the Billie Eilish doc will not make it. I feel fairly confident the Julia doc won’t make it, since they typically don’t go for ‘light’ docs here very often. Simple as Water feels nice but doesn’t feel like the type of doc that gets nominated, so I feel fairly confident that won’t make it either. Velvet Underground… 95% of me says it won’t happen, but who knows. They like Todd Haynes, but I’m not feeling cynical enough to assume they’re gonna go there. It doesn’t fit how they usually vote.

The First Wave is a COVID doc. They ignored (the vastly superior) 76 Days last year. Plus, after three years of a pandemic, do they really wanna go there? I know the director is previously nominated and hugely respected, so it’s possible that wins out. But I wanna see them do it. I don’t know if I could guess it. Procession is one that could so easily get on, but considering the other stuff and how tight spots in this category should be, I’m not feeling it. I definitely wouldn’t tell you to not guess it, though. Same for In the Same Breath. It feels unlikely, but it’s not an impossible choice.

Attica I keep hearing has got all of this support, but it’s unlike them to nominate something about an event that happened years ago without it clearly having direct comparisons to today (and if they left LA 92 off…). I’m gonna stick with what I know about this branch and say it won’t get on, but all I’m hearing is people love this and are gonna vote it on and everyone’s guessing it. So you may want to. Faya Dayi is the most artistic doc on the list. I don’t know how voters are gonna react to it. If I weren’t already set with four, I’d probably look to add it. But this category “should” be fairly set. Unless obvious stuff gets left off, I feel like it’s more likely to not make it on. But trust me. This is up a lot of people’s alleys, so you  definitely wanna give that one a hard look.

President and Writing with Fire I haven’t seen, so I’m flying blind there. Both seem to have nice word-of-mouth campaigns going. Maybe that can get them on. At this point, not liking most of my options and reading what they’re both about, I feel like Writing with Fire is a solid #5. I mean, I’ll probably be wrong and will end up saying it would’ve been nominated if this were Doc Short, but that’s fine. I’ve taken baths in this category the past few years, I can miss 3 easy and not blink.

This category’s gonna be entirely about whether or not they nominate the sure thing or, for what feels like the eighth or ninth year in a row, leave it off and opt for chaos.

Best Documentary Feature

Ascension

Flee

The Rescue

Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Writing with Fire

First Alternate: Faya Dayi

Dark Horse: President

Surprise: Attica, The First Wave

Shocker: In the Same Breath, Procession, The Velvet Underground

Don’t guess: Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry, Julia, Simple as Water

Would love to see: Them not leave the best documentary off the list, for once.

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Documentary Short.

Shortlist:

Águilas
Audible
A Broken House
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker
Day of Rage
The Facility
Lead Me Home
Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day
The Queen of Basketball
Sophie & the Baron
Takeover
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies

All you can do in this category is look at what themes usually do it for them and try to pick which of the shortlisted films jump out the most at you. I’ve seen all of these (you can read my shortlist breakdown here), and I’m just gonna go with my gut.

I’ve been doing this a while, and stuff like Audible never gets nominated in this category. I know it’s Netflix and I know because they get their stuff out there people are gonna be tempted to automatically put this on their list. But look at the last handful of years in this category… stuff like this isn’t nominated. The Speed Cubers, Zion… nice, uplifting little docs. They don’t nominate them. So until they do, I don’t see the need to guess them. Same for Sophie and the Baron. I know because it’s Disney a lot of people are gonna want to go there. But there’s no substance to the doc at all, and this is a category where they primarily look for either very specific things or at least go for an issue to support. That doc is neither, and I can’t see them nominating it on an even playing field. I not in a cynical enough mood today to assume they’re gonna do it.

I think When We Were Bullies is an astoundingly misguided doc and honestly I’m not guessing it because I can’t imagine they’re gonna take the exact wrong message from it and vote for it. Terror Contagion, I’ve said my thoughts about… I’ll believe it when I see it. It’s one of the best on the shortlist and probably should be nominated, but I just don’t fully trust them to do it. So I’ll be happily wrong there. Day of Rage is a subject I’m concerned people have had too much of in real life and won’t want to vote for it again here, so I’m just gonna let them nominate it. Aguilas didn’t do much for me, but I can’t necessarily speak to what’s gonna spark for voters. But historically something like this is 50/50. I think there’s stronger things there for them to choose, so I’ll let it get on. Lead Me Home is another one. An issue a lot of voters are dealing with every single day in LA. Are they gonna look at this as shining a spotlight on an issue or are they gonna take the old white person point of view of ‘ugh, we deal with all these homeless everyday, why do I want it here too?’ Until they do it, I don’t know.

Takeover is a wonderful doc and I think the only reason I’m not guessing it is because I don’t wanna feel the double sting when they don’t nominate it. It’s so insanely timely, but the doc never explicitly makes the connection between the events depicted in the doc and today, and I worry voters will gloss over it. They usually like to be told how to feel (but not too strongly, because then their filmmaking instincts kick in and they reject it. That’s why it’s called Oscar bait).

To me there are 7 of these nominees that all fit the mold of what normally gets on here. The Facility is the best of the bunch and it’ll be an absolute travesty if they don’t nominate it. Field of Vision has been nominated the past two years, so I think it’s an easy nominee and should be guessed. Same for Lynching Postcards, which should get on based solely on its title. Queen of Basketball is the highest profile doc on the list, and while it’s not completely the kind of doc that would get on here… it fits and I think the stature will get it nominated. Coded fits their vibe perfectly too. They love docs about people overcoming their personal circumstances to create art, and especially love ‘discovering’ forgotten artists. I’d be somewhat surprised if they left this off. A Broken House… the premise alone (Syrian emigre makes scale models of his war-torn homeland using broken parts because he can’t return there) is exactly what this category is about. It’s almost too easy a guess. Then there’s Three Songs for Benazir, which is Netflix. And Netflix will typically get a short on most years, so smart money is probably on it (even though I’m being dumb and not guessing it). And Camp Confidential… the title will probably get it on but I’m leaving it off just because of lack of space.

I think if you pick your list from those 7 then you probably have the best shot of a minimum 3/5. But honestly just choose whichever ones feel best to you and hope it works out.

Best Documentary Short

A Broken House

Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker

The Facility

Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day

The Queen of Basketball

First Alternate: Three Songs for Benazir

Dark Horse: Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

Surprise: Lead Me Home, Takeover

Shocker: Aguilas, Day of Rage, Sophie & the Baron

Don’t guess: Audible, Terror Contagion, When We Were Bullies

Would love to see: I don’t care as long as The Facility gets nominated.

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Live Action Short.

Shortlist:

Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
Censor of Dreams
The Criminals
Distances
The Dress
Frimas
Les Grandes Claques
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Stenofonen
Tala’vision
Under the Heavens
When the Sun Sets
You’re Dead Helen

Pure crapshoot here. Read the synopses, see as many as you can and just guess based on what they tend to like. (You can read my shortlist breakdown here.)

Please Hold is probably the best of the bunch and I can’t fathom a category without that on, so that’s automatic for me. Ala Kachuu is one of the best made shorts of the bunch and one of the most emotionally affecting, and my gut says that’ll easily make it on. Tala’Vision I think has the title going for it and the premise, and I’m gonna ride with it until they leave it off. Past that… crap shoot.

The Long Goodbye has timely subject matter and Riz Ahmed headlining it, so I feel like people are gonna automatically guess it on that alone. But if you actually watched it… I’m not sure it’s the kind of thing voters will for sure go for. It’s a smart guess for sure. But to me, one of two things will happen: either they’re just gonna vote for Riz and it’ll get on, or when it misses I will tell you that it was never gonna happen because it’s too slight a short and instead of a climax just has him freestyling. I’m betting on the latter and leaving it off my list. Meanwhile, You’re Dead Helen is the most entertaining of the bunch and probably should get on, but I’ve seen them leave stuff like this off routinely. So it’s probably a wily move to not guess it, since knowing this branch I feel they’re more likely to leave it off than put it on.

Frimas I just think it’s great and probably will resonate with a lot of voters, but they may have the same reaction I did, which is, “Isn’t there always some sort of abortion short that gets nominated?” So it’s possible they go ‘seen it before’ and vote elsewhere. I’m gonna vote for it because in a category like this I’d rather feel good about my choices rather than go with something just because ‘maybe?’ It’s admittedly an easy one to leave off, though. The Criminals also feels like one that could easily get on. I ran out of space, but it would totally fit in a final category and is a smart guess. Censor of Dreams too. High concept (usually a good bet), though my concern is that the film gets a little too arty at the end and doesn’t stick the landing. So I’m 50/50 on it. At worst it’s a dark horse though and is a more-than-reasonable guess based on premise alone.

Distances will come down to how they respond to it. It elicits enough emotion to think people will vote for it, but it’s also possible some voters (the New Yorkers) will go, “Ugh, I hate it when crazy homeless people get on my train.” So, yeah, easily could make it. Will it? No clue, but definitely a reasonable enough guess. On My Mind is the only one I haven’t seen, but from what I know about it, it might have that emotional angle that’ll make it work for them. Something tells me it won’t get on and I’ll never see it and will never know if I think it should’ve made it. That’s usually how my luck works. So I’m leaving it off.

The Dress has a complete story and is well told and could easily make this list. I just ran out of space for it on mine. But that’s not a bad guess at all. Stenofonen, as I said in my breakdown, is the one I didn’t particularly like at all and couldn’t imagine anyone voting for… which probably means it’s a lock to get on. I get burned by something like this every single year. When the Sun Sets is Apartheid Africa, and the cynical Oscar voter will go ‘of course that gets on. It’s like Holocaust stuff’. And maybe they’re right. I didn’t see a whole lot there, so I’m gonna bank on that, but, like I could say at the end of every single one of these sentences, who really knows with this category? Les Grandes Claques probably could make it (and just may), but it also felt a bit slight to me. Maybe voters will feel differently. Same for Under the Heavens. It fits. Everything fits. It just comes down to what they liked best, which is why this is the single hardest category to guess.

This category is the one most left up to chance, so just pick the category you can best live with.

Best Live Action Short

Ala Kachuu (Take and Run)

Frimas

Please Hold

Tala’Vision

You’re Dead, Helen

First Alternate: The Criminals

Dark Horse: Censor of Dreams

Surprise: Distances, On My Mind

Shocker: The Dress, Stenofonen, When the Sun Sets

Don’t guess: Les Grandes Claques, The Long Goodbye, Under the Heavens

Would love to see: As long as Please Hold and You’re Dead Helen are on, I’m good.

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Animated Short.

Shortlist:

Affairs of the Art
Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice
Bad Seeds
Bestia
Boxballet
Flowing Home
Mum Is Pouring Rain
The Musician
Namoo
Only a Child
Robin Robin
Souvenir Souvenir
Step into the River
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper

No help here. Just know their tastes, see as many as you can and hope for the best. (You can read my shortlist breakdown here.)

I really, really thought about choosing chaos and leaving both Disney and Aardman off my list. I don’t know if I ultimately will, though. I think I’m gonna leave Us Again off, just because, while it is Disney and is well-made… there’s barely a story there. I’ve seen them leave off way stronger Disney/Pixar fare. I think voters will see the lack of story (coupled with their general disinclination toward Disney if they can help it and the fact that this is basically La La Land: The Short) and leave it off. Robin Robin, on the other hand… I know I’m gonna feel worse if I don’t guess it and it gets on (because I know it’s gonna get on, because the Academy will always vote for Aardman), so I’d rather just guess it and be happy to be wrong if and when it gets left off.

Namoo and Bestia I think are the two best shorts in the category and I’d be surprised if the majority of voters (who actually watched all the shorts) didn’t feel the same way. So I say take those no matter what. Affairs of the Art… I saw it, didn’t particularly like it past the animation and thought, “How could they nominate this?” But I say that every year about something and it gets nominated. It hit BAFTA, is from a previous nominee and just feels like the kind of thing that’s gonna make it. So I’m gonna guess it and be totally fine if I’m wrong. I’m also making The Windshield Wiper my #5 because I liked it a lot and I think it’s the kind of thing voters will spark to.

To mention everything else: Angakusajaujuq is really well-made and the animation is glorious. Honestly the only reason it’s not on my list is because I had two I had to put on because, as I said, I’d have been angry if I didn’t guess them and they got nominated. Bad Seeds is cute and short and could easily get on just as much as it could get left off. It’s an easy dark horse that’s well worth a guess and one of the more likely ones to make it. The Musician is the kind of short they have gravitated toward in the past. But there are 15 shorts (not 10) and only 5 spots, so you gotta make your cuts somewhere. (Though, the amount of quality on this list is what makes me feel bad that we’re anointing these Aardman and Disney spots, because neither of them, to me, are even in the top ten of what should be nominated).

Boxballet is nice and could strike an emotional chord with people. Flowing Home and Step into the River feel somewhat similar, and picking which one they’d like more is hard enough, so I just left them both off and figured it’ll work itself out. Mum Is Pouring Rain I quite liked but they typically don’t go for things that narratively structured (and long. Unless it’s one of those UK storybook shorts). Only a Child is perhaps the only short that would legitimately surprise me if it were nominated just because it feels more like a Super Bowl ad than a short. I can’t imagine they’d see all 15 and decide that was in the top 5. And Souvenir Souvenir’s animation style is one that… I can’t explain it, but when I saw it I said, “They don’t vote for stuff like this.” And when I have that feeling, I listen to it.

I think as long as you guess Namoo and Bestia, you can probably do what you want with the others. Aardman is usually a safe bet, Disney is cynical (but safe), and the others are just gonna come down to what you feel will grab them most based on their typical voting patterns.

Best Animated Short

Affairs of the Art

Bestia

Namoo

Robin Robin

The Windshield Wiper

First Alternate: Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice

Dark Horse: Bad Seeds

Surprise: Us Again, The Musician

Shocker: Boxballet, Flowing Home, Step Into the River

Don’t guess: Mum Is Pouring Rain, Only a Child, Souvenir Souvenir

Would love to see: As long as Bestia and Namoo both make it on, I’m happy.

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There are gonna be 120 nominees tomorrow. I’d love to get 80% right (96), but would be more than happy with 75% (90). But honestly as long as I’m 85 or above, I’ll feel fine. There’s always gonna be a certain amount of randomness to this, and you can only do so much preparation before it’s up to whatever’s gonna happen. And at this point, I’ve got nothing left to prove. The biggest win is that I did all this in 11,500 words.

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