And now we have our nominations. Immediately everything I said yesterday is rendered irrelevant and all that matters going forward is this list and what’s gonna happen.
I’ll work up my thoughts about everything as a whole and get to them at the end. But overall, I’m not sure there’s anything that makes you go, “OH WOW.” Just a few where you went, “Okay… interesting.” I know what all the mainstream publications are gonna make big deals out of, but for anyone actually following this stuff, you kinda knew going in who the major players were and the only question was gonna be what specific sets of categories they made from them.
So here we are. We’ve got six weeks to figure out what’s gonna win from all this (even though we kinda know for most of it, don’t we?).
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Drive My Car was always gonna be the film that got on here, if they went for it. And as you heard all the nominations come through, it was clear they were gonna go for it. I thought Lost Daughter did have that shot, especially when Buckley got nominated, but apparently there wasn’t enough support over Guillermo to manage it. The only real surprise, based on precursors, was Tick Tick Boom getting left off. Which, honestly I’m not that upset about. I didn’t necessarily think it needed to get nominated, but based on what was happening it seemed like it was gonna. And then when it got Editing over Belfast and you thought for sure it would happen. But no. Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley. I mean, sure. I’m not upset at either of those. Honestly, it’s a pretty good list. All they did was swap two films I thought were solid for a different two I thought were solid without changing the bulk of the list that I liked to begin with. The most you could ever really ever fault them for in situations like this is their taste. Everything they nominated, based on all the other categories, they clearly liked. It’s really hard to get mad at that.
I went 8/10, which I’ll take all day. I figured the tenth spot I’d get wrong for Drive My Car, so that was fine, and then I ended up missing what would’ve been my #9 if I were still ranking everything. Which is also fine. No major mistakes were made, so it was a good year.
Big takeaways: Tick Tick Boom wasn’t as sure a thing in today’s Academy as it would’ve been in yesterday’s Academy. That’s very much an old white person movie and Drive My Car is not. Nightmare Alley goes both ways, since a lot of people know and love Guillermo but also he makes movies that most people enjoy. Otherwise, no real major takeaways since the majority of what was expected got nominated and it doesn’t change my perception that Power of the Dog has fully already won the whole thing. Which you’ll see me reiterate as we make our way through this list.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
So the DGA goes 4/5 again (as do I), which should have been expected. However, while Hamaguchi gets on, it turns out the person they left off was Denis Villeneuve and not Spielberg. Which, honestly… VERY okay with that. I love Denis a lot, but I think Dune was his weakest effort (between Prisoners, Sicario, Arrival and Blade Runner). I’d have been okay with him getting on again just to have another nomination, but of the people to leave off based on the particular efforts this year, he was the one I was most okay with. I think Spielberg absolutely should have gotten on here, as West Side Story is his best work probably since Lincoln (or even maybe Munich). But, Denis is one of those people who hit every single precursor and is hugely respected, so you figured it was a sure thing. Which I guess is gonna become a takeaway in a second. But I’m glad I guessed the DGA five since the one that got left off wasn’t the obvious one, so even if I made the swap I’d still have gone 4/5.
Though I will say, I got real nervous as they announced all of this and started with Branagh, and I had that moment of, “They left off Anderson? And CAMPION?” And then I realized they were listing the films in alphabetical order, not the directors.
Big takeaways: The DGA is basically a lock to go 4/5 every year. Sadly, after that incredible run, Denis Villeneuve still only has one Director nomination to show for it. Though it’s cool, because he’ll probably win one of these years and it’ll be fine. Spielberg gets his first nomination since Lincoln (and has now been nominated in six separate decades), which is cool. Hamaguchi gets on, continuing the trend of foreign language nominees making it on the list, further cementing the Directors branch as one that is willing to go out more on a limb than most of the other branches. But the major takeaways here (I guess aside from the fact that Drive My Car has now fully won International Feature, which I’ll bring up later) are that Jane Campion is probably gonna win (and be the second women in a row to win) and that you can look at all the precursors you want, but it still does, in a sense, come down to what makes sense to them. And that doesn’t specifically apply to Villeneuve or Dune, since Dune is gonna get something like 11 nominations (I haven’t tallied anything yet, so I’ll figure out whatever the number is at the end) and he did make all the sense in the world. It more applies to stuff later on. But when I saw Villeneuve get left off, that was my immediate thought. “It’s a big sci-fi movie. It’s not automatic Oscar bait or ‘art’.” You know? And I’m sure him getting left off just came down to numbers, and while the takeaway shouldn’t necessarily apply to him or that film at all, it is a good takeaway for me (and everyone guessing these things) to have going forward, which is, make your decisions but also step back and think, “In a historical sense, based on their tastes and the perceptions of the films, would they actually do this?” (I’ll tell you… that thinking helped me out in Supporting Actor, that’s for sure.) And I know I’m gonna overcorrect for a year or two, sort of how I did when we had that Roma foreign nomination out of nowhere, but at least it’s one of those things to keep in mind that might get me to make a good decision somewhere in the future. And to me, that’s what it’s about.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
So we knew 4/5 of these were locked and it was only gonna come down to that fifth spot. Turns out, we got the SAG (boring) five. I wasn’t necessarily sold that Dinklage was gonna get that fifth spot, but I also couldn’t imagine they’d be so boring as to nominate Javier Bardem. But here we are. It does show you though, where the Academy still is. The Actors branch is still the largest (and oldest and whitest), and you see how Being the Ricardos managed three acting nominations (when at best it probably should have only had one) and yet was shut out everywhere else. So when you’re gonna mention places where the Academy voting body has changed and where it hasn’t — the Actors branch is the focal point. Though I will say, it’s kinda nice that Bardem and Penelope Cruz both got nominated together. That’s kinda nice. They’re both great and in the abstract do deserve acclaim. I could quibble with this not being one of Bardem’s best performances, but whatever. I’m happy for him at the very least.
But yeah, the other four were always set and the fifth was never gonna contend for the win anyway, so ultimately it was just trying to guess who they went with. So it’s Bardem. Now what you look at is — this is either Will Smith or Benedict Cumberbatch who wins this, and I’m real curious to see which way it goes. BFCA and BAFTA are gonna be huge in this (since I assume Smith should win SAG pretty easily on top of his Globe win). I said it a month ago. This may finally be his year. We’ll see.
Big takeaways: Smith vs. Cumberbatch. But we knew that. And Bardem and Cruz get to come to the ceremony together, which is cute. There’s really not many other takeaways to have here. We kinda knew what we were getting all around.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Amazing. Lady Gaga is the only actress to hit every single precursor, and yet… they left her off. Go fucking figure. You kinda saw this coming as they announced all the other categories. There was a total rejection of House of Gucci all the way through, so I’m not really surprised she got left off. It’s more of a ‘and yet, all those precursors’ situation. She was the only one here who got nominated at BAFTA! Incredible. But it comes back to what I said up above… that film was wildly divisive and some people scoffed at those performances while others loved them. And in the end, they went for more ‘traditional’ choices. Which again speaks to the Actors branch.
Glad I guessed Stewart, though. My 4/5 here has nothing to do with anything I could have openly guessed, since I’m not sure anyone would have figured Gaga to be left off for Cruz even if they did have Cruz on.
Big takeaways: Gaga gets left off and people are gonna talk about that snub, but Kristen Stewart gets on and now we won’t have to hear people talk about that snub. Penelope Cruz gets on, and honestly good for her. I’ve been dragging my feet in watching that movie so now I have incentive to do that quickly. But I will say… I kinda think this ends with Nicole Kidman winning the Oscar, which is probably the only major takeaway here, and… are we all gonna be cool with that? Maybe somehow Olivia Colman sneaks in a second win there, but… it sure looks like it’s gonna be Kidman the way it was Renée Zellweger two years ago. I just wanna prepare everyone for that outcome now so it doesn’t come as a shock later on.
Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Glad I had Plemons on my list. That was one of those where, as soon as I saw BAFTA, I knew it was probably gonna happen. The fifth spot, tuns out, wasn’t Jared Leto or Bradley Cooper but instead was the BFCA choice of J.K. Simmons. Which… a lot to say there. First… great for J.K. Love him, he’s always worthy of a nomination and I did think he was probably the best performance in that movie. Do I think he needed to get on here? Absolutely not. But if you remember all those times people like Alan Arkin got nominated where you’re like, “He didn’t need this, but I love him, so sure,” this is that. So fine. Jared Leto I knew not to guess because I just felt the rejection of the campiness coming. After Gaga, no one should be surprised at this, even though they announced this category first. But no Bradley Cooper is slightly interesting, though I’m sure people instinctively said ‘he wasn’t in the movie enough’ and that’s what led to it. Which I can honestly accept. Plus with Licorice Pizza coming in so slight, I’m honestly surprised it held on in Director. Still, another nice 4/5 here after the Plemons pull.
Big takeaways: Power of the Dog got four acting nominations, and this is our fifth year in a row with double acting nominees in the same category (and currently they’re 2-2 in terms of one of them winning, and it sure looks like this’ll make it 3-2). All of these actors were in the conversation, so the only real takeaway is the combination of the two that made it on past the obvious three. And I think we all assume Smit-McPhee is gonna win this pretty handily, unless Ciaran Hinds can somehow make a late push and Alan Arkin his way to a win.
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Okay. So the minute I figured this was the locked category of course some shit was gonna go down. I did say all along — Judi Dench is the person that’s gonna make it if someone gets left off. And I believe I said from back when the BAFTA shortlists were announced, “Keep an eye on Jessie Buckley.” So I was spot on with those two. Now, did I expect both to get on? No. I did not. Because we had a strong five to begin with. But, if you look at Dench as a swap with Caitriona Balfe, then it’s fine. I don’t necessarily love it, but it’s acceptable in that the film still got on and it didn’t take up two spots. I think Balfe should have been nominated over Dench (I also think she probably should have gone lead, but that’s a separate discussion), but Belfast still got a spot on this list.
The bigger issue here is the snubbing of Ruth Negga, which I consider one of the biggest travesties of this entire year. She’s an incredible actress who has almost never gotten her proper due (to the point where it was even a moderate surprise when they actually nominated her for Loving in 2016), and her being left off here tells me that people just watched the same handful of movies and didn’t actually see Passing. Because I don’t know how people who watched it, along with everything else nominated here, and didn’t think she was top two, maybe three at worst, in this category. So it’s a damn shame and she really did deserve to be here. And I’m not gonna be the person who gets mad at the person who took her spot. But I am gonna be mad at them for not voting for her more.
On the positive side, Jessie Buckley gets her first nomination, and that’s great. She’s awesome (and her and Plemons both get nominated a year after I’m Thinking of Ending Things, which is some kind of karmic retribution for that film) and this nomination had been building ever since Wild Rose. You knew it was only a matter of time for her. And, everything else with this category aside, it continues the time-honored tradition of the double actress nomination for performances like this (remember Judi and Kate Winslet in Iris? Older and younger versions of the same character)? So for people super into this stuff like me, there’s a lot to like about that nomination, as much as I am upset it came at the expense of Ruth Negga.
Big takeaways: Ruth Negga gets hosed, Caitriona Balfe gets hosed, but Jessie Buckley gets her first nomination, and who doesn’t love Judi Dench? Also, the underreported aspect of all of this — Kristen Dunst just got her first nomination ever. That’s awesome. Because we all know how great she is and has always been (plus she and her husband also both get nominated, alongside Bardem and Cruz, which is nice). Also, it’s nice that with all of the turnover in this category that Aunjanue Ellis did manage to make it all the way through. Because you just knew, with the way these people vote, she was the one who was probably the one to get screwed over almost any other year before now. Past that… sure looks like Ariana DeBose is gonna win this, huh? I mean, I’m 1000% for it. She’s amazing, she’s amazing in that movie, and wholly deserves it, especially after the category turned out the way it did. It’s just the idea that Anita is gonna win twice. If they’re smart, they’ll have Rita Moreno announce the category and have her give DeBose her award (presuming she’s the one that wins it). But honestly, unless Dunst is gonna make a run, I almost don’t see how this isn’t DeBose’s category to lose.
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Look at Worst Person in the World! I’m real happy for that movie, because it’s a great piece of writing. And it comes at the expense of Aaron Sorkin, who I love but didn’t need to get on this category. The only reason he was gonna get on is because there really wasn’t anything out there to guess ahead of him. But, if they left him off for Steve Jobs (which they shouldn’t have)… this isn’t as good a script (or movie) as that was, so in that sense, I’m fine with it. And you know they try to leave him off if they can anyway. So it makes sense. He doesn’t need it anyway, and seeing Worst Person in the World get on livens up the category, so I’m all for it.
Big Takeaways: Aside from the fact that you pretty much knew this was gonna be the category all the way through, the big takeaway is… what wins? I guess Belfast? Or does King Richard sneak one? Does McKay win a second? Does Paul Thomas Anderson finally get his win? A lotta reasons against most of those options. Which is why I guess, for now, I have to assume it’ll be Belfast until I have reason to think otherwise.
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
So yeah, I did say that most likely what was gonna happen here was that Drive My Car would take the West Side Story spot. And lo and behold it did. So really there was absolutely zero surprise to be had in this category at all. Leaving not much to say here.
Big takeaways: Two foreign scripts get on the Screenplay categories. Which does make sense this year, given what the International Feature category looks like. Otherwise, sure looks like Jane Campion is gonna hat trick, doesn’t it?
Best Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick… Tick… Boom!
Where to begin with this one…
Belfast gets left off. Which, fine. A major Picture nominee has gotten left off a bunch these past few years. But Licorice Pizza also gets left off. And West Side Story also gets left off. I could have expected one, maybe two of those. But all three… that’s interesting. Dune gets on because Dune is what it is. And Power of the Dog gets on because that’s gonna win Picture. Don’t Look Up gets on, which… had you told me one of those movies was gonna be left off, I’d have told you that was the one that would make it. And then King Richard, which, you had to figure that was the one most likely to sneak on and show out among all the Picture nominees. So no real surprise there. But then Tick Tick Boom also gets on. Which, coincidentally, I did have those as my first three to get on. But that’s because those were the other Picture contenders. It’s not rocket science. You know how Editing goes. But what’s interesting is that Tick Tick Boom wasn’t nominated for Picture. Making it one of 5 movies not nominated for Picture to get on Editing in the past decade. And makes it the only film to get less than 3 overall nominations to do so of those 5. Which, wow, that Picture vote must have been close. It sure looks like it was supposed to make it on.
But yeah, Tick Tick Boom is the only surprise here, since I half figured West Side Story was the first one to get left off. But Richard and Don’t Look Up on and Licorice Pizza and Belfast off… not sure anyone could have guessed that specific turn of events.
Big takeaways: Tick Tick Boom is only the 5th movie to get nominated for Editing in the past decade without getting a Best Picture nomination, and the first to have less than 3 overall nominations in doing so. They gutted the Picture category so much that not only is Power of the Dog a guaranteed Best Picture winner, it’s probably gonna win Editing too. Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Editing. Which alone would make it the most consensus winner in what, ten years? Since The Artist. (Though I do also think it’s very possible Dune wins this category as well. So we’ll see how it plays out.)
Best Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
This was always gonna be six for five, so West Side Story made it and Belfast got left off. No surprise there, honestly. This allows West Side Story to maintain a respectable nominations haul and has Belfast as the one coming in lighter than expected after the Editing snub and now this. Otherwise, all what was expected.
Big takeaways: Real curious to see what wins this. It’s a stacked (and awesome) category. I imagine this is between Dune and Power of the Dog, right? I can’t imagine they go for Janusz and I just can’t imagine Nightmare Alley or Tragedy of Macbeth actually contend. So this’ll be an interesting one to watch, even though there’s nary a bad choice in the category.
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
They left Desplat off. Which, while not surprising (they rejected French Dispatch entirely, which we’ll get to in a bit), is interesting, since he was always automatic for Wes Anderson films and he’s gotten nominated practically every year on his own just because he’s such a great composer. And Being the Ricardos gets left off, which… fine. I expected that to be the most likely cast off anyway. But hey, all of these scores had precursors! That almost never happens anymore, even with a shortlist. But who figured the Globes would go 4/5 here. (Though I have said the Globes have generally had better taste in music than a lot of other places. I remember some of those composers they nominated and actually gave awards to. The Academy ignored them entirely. Go figure that’s the one place the Globes actually have taste.)
Big takeaways: Jonny Greenwood gets nominated, which is awesome. Nicholas Britell finally starts getting nominated outside of Barry Jenkins, which is great. Hans has a legitimate chance to win for the first time since Lion King. Also great. Alberto Iglesias gets his first nomination since Tinker Tailor and his first for an Almodovar film. I feel good for him and feel good that I did say he was a good guess if you were gonna go the Cruz route in Actress. So look at that. And Encanto… the first Disney (not Pixar) score to be nominated since Mulan in 1998. That’s one of the biggest surprises of the entire year. I’m thrilled for it (and it tells you that Encanto has Animated Feature on lock), but that was never a sure thing by any stretch.
Best Original Song
“Be Alive,” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas,” from Encanto
“Down to Joy,” from Belfast
“No Time to Die,” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do,” from Four Good Days
So we got the obvious five. I wasn’t sure they’d actually go for Beyonce, but the minute this got Editing you kinda knew Song would follow along and the film would come in strong. So good for her. I never really expected the Respect song to make it, but I just thought something random would beat me. But hey, we got the obvious five and, outside of Diane Warren being force-fed yet again, it’s a pretty solid category.
Big Takeaways: Diane Warren has now been nominated every year but one since 2014 and has still never won (and will not win this year). This category is fully between Lin-Manuel and Billie Eilish, and I think we all assume Eilish should win it pretty easily (sorry Lin, guess you’ll have to EGOT another year). But hey, Van Morrison’s here too. Great for his body of work… not so great because of the whole anti-science thing. It’ll be real interesting to see if he’s even at the ceremony (I probably wouldn’t expect him to be there anyway in normal times, but given that they’re assuredly mandating vaccinations to even attend, you know that shit’s out and is one of those things there will be many behind-the-scenes discussions about in the weeks ahead from the producers of the show).
Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
For me, the lack of a French Dispatch nomination is one of the three biggest snubs of the entire year. Outside of that personal feeling, it’s not really a surprise. Look at the five that got on here. They all fit and they all make sense, and once time passes and you forget the specifics, it’ll look like a perfectly reasonable category. That said… kinda bullshit. But, fortunately the team that did French Dispatch also did west Side Story, so there’s a chance for everything to work out. Otherwise, no real surprises here.
Big Takeaways: That French Dispatch should have been here and West Side Story should win just because those two efforts together are better than the rest of this entire category. Otherwise, a good category, and I’m curious to see how the precursors play out.
Best Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
So my fears were confirmed — House of Gucci was too close to contemporary for them to nominate. And instead the frills of Cyrano get on. Which, you all knew that was the one to get on if something didn’t make it. And, as I expected, Cyrano came in light. One nomination for Costumes and nothing else. Otherwise, all the obvious stuff made it so nothing really of note.
Big Takeaways: Frills. And period pieces. They always are what get on here. Otherwise, a pretty expected category, and now I’m interested to see what can win.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Oh hey, Coming 2 America made it! That’s awesome. And Suicide Squad didn’t! Also nice. Not that I hated the effort, but it was one I was kinda hoping wouldn’t get on just because I was worried they’d feel the urge to vote for it again. And here is House of Gucci’s only nomination. Go figure. But yeah, it’s nice to know I had this category pretty much cold and it came down to them actually putting on Coming 2 America just knowing the transformations even though it wasn’t all that great.
Big takeaways: Dune is gonna win this in a landslide.
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Godzilla vs. Kong didn’t make it!!! And honestly that makes the 3/5 totally worth it. And No Time to Die gets on, which, hooray for practical effects! Two major wins.
I can totally live with Matrix being left off in that sense. There really weren’t all that many effects there. I just assumed it would get on because of its stature. And Free Guy gets on, which BAFTA predicted, continuing the tradition of that surprise entry out of nowhere in this category. Death, taxes and the VFX branch doing something like that.
Big Takeaways: Dune is also gonna win this in a walk. Congrats, everyone, you’ve already guessed 2 things right on Oscar night (at least).
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
So Quiet Place misses, but Belfast makes up for one of its two omissions with a nomination here. I mean, cool. I really wouldn’t have expected Quiet Place to get on almost any other year, and this tells me that when you combine both Sound branches into one entity, stuff like Quiet Place really isn’t gonna get nominated over Picture stuff. Which, I guess that’s really a takeaway, but whatever. You knew most of this category anyway. Nothing should be all that surprising here.
Big takeaways: Now that we have a shortlist for this, I assume this is gonna become like Editing… doesn’t matter how much Sound something has, Picture nominees overrule everything, even if they’re light on precursors. Also, and I cannot stress this enough… if you truly thought Spider-Man was gonna get nominated here, you should probably reevaluate how you go about guessing these nominations.
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
The obvious five get on and Disney/Pixar gets three nominations. Hard to see any other category having happened but this one. As such, there’s really nothing to say about it.
Big Takeaways: Encanto is gonna win just because it now has 3 overall nominations. It was always gonna win, but now you have empirical evidence to that fact. And Luca is the spoiler just because some people will just always vote Pixar no matter what. Also, for everyone feeling bad that Raya has no chance at this, know that this is how all of us Moana people felt the year of Zootopia.
Best International Feature
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Oh hey, we almost got the obvious category! And THE YAK MOVIE GOT ON. I fucking knew the yak movie was gonna be the one. That just feels like some shit this branch wold give us. Literally any other year and that would have been in my guesses. But yeah, they left Farhadi off. I knew they’d have to probably leave someone off, I just wasn’t sure who. But it was him. Moderate surprise in that sense, but not in the abstract. Three of these nominees have multiple nominations. So you knew most of this category was coming. This is one of those years where they had so many good choices stuff was gonna get left off and a ‘it is what it is’ situation.
Big Takeaways: The yak movie got on. Hell yeah. Also, Drive My Car is now for sure gonna win this. If it didn’t get Picture and Director and Screenplay, then I’d have really been curious if it could have won. Honestly if it had just been Director and Screenplay I’d have still maybe made a case for Worst Person in the World. But this sews that up. People have their own tastes, but for the people who didn’t watch everything, all they have to see is four nominations and that’ll get it those extra votes. It’s a done deal.
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing with Fire
I can’t believe I went 4/5 here. I heard them reading the list and heard Ascension and went, “Great.” Then I heard Attica and went, “Okay, I did hear that had support.” And then Flee, which was fully expected. And then Summer of Soul, which was… THANK GOD THEY FINALLY NOMINATED THE BEST DOCUMENTARY OF THE YEAR. But that also meant they left The Rescue off. Which is a real shame, but honestly I’d rather it be that than Summer of Soul. And then I waited for the last spot because I was like, “This has to be Writing with Fire, right?” And then they said it, and I was fucking thrilled. Called that shit sight unseen. I thought for sure I’d get 2 or 3 wrong on this one. So 4/5 is dope.
Big takeaways: Finally the best documentary of the year got nominated and is gonna win. And also The Rescue gets left off, which sucks, because it is one of the best docs of the year. But also, very happy for Ascension. That was legitimately a great documentary and I’m happy to see it recognized. Also pretty happy for all the people who now, when talking about this category, get to make Dog Day Afternoon references for the next six weeks.
Best Documentary Short
Audible
Leave Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
I took a real bath in this one. Only one right. And it was Queen of Basketball. Which I half-expected them to leave off.
Audible gets on, which… the first time they’ve done that. I assume it’s because it’s football. They love a good football doc. Otherwise that means Netflix got two things on here, and maybe it’s just that. I don’t know. But you never really know here. Leave Me Home gets on, which… makes sense. I just didn’t know if they would. Benazir was my first alternate, so no surprises there. And When We Were Bullies… the less said about that, the better. I’ve made my feelings very clear on that one and honestly I’m not remotely surprised they went for it. (But they did leave off Terror Contagion, which I did say they were gonna do.)
Big Takeaways: The fact that The Facility wasn’t nominated is a joke. Not ultimately surprised Lynching Postcards didn’t make it just because there wasn’t really that much substance to the doc past its title. But it not getting on meant people actually had to watch stuff before they voted. So I guess good for them for actually doing their jobs? Otherwise, after both Doc categories, it’s clear between COVID and all the Republican Insurrection stuff that voters have too much of that in everyday life and don’t want it here too. Which I did say was likely the scenario. Now the question here is what wins. And that’ll be a fun one to try to figure out. I guess you gotta ride Queen of Basketball all the way just because of its profile.
Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu (Take and Run)
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
I went 2/5 here, but the two that needed to be here got on. Please Hold and Ala Kachuu. I did sort of know You’re Dead Helen would get left off, but I just wasn’t gonna not guess it because it was so entertaining. The Dress fits this category so perfectly I’m not remotely surprised about that. The Lost Goodbye though… guess they went for it. Not thrilled about it, but I’ll live with it. But man, if it wins, I will not be happy (except for Riz. Love Riz). And I haven’t seen On My Mind. It’s the only one in the category I haven’t seen, so go figure.
Big Takeaways: It’s hard to have any major takeaways in a Shorts category. Though with 15 on the shortlist now instead of 10, that does probably mean a lot of 2/5s in guessing going forward. Which is fine. You always expect to do badly in these categories because they’re so random. It makes the 4/5s feel that much better. But otherwise, I sure hope Please Hold wins this, because it is the best short in the category. (Also shout out Ala Kachuu, that was also great and fully deserves to be here, and maybe even win.)
Best Animated Short
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Well, shit. I went 4/5. And I knew to not guess Disney but leave Aardman on. Though the fact that Namoo got left off is a goddamn travesty. Happy for Boxballet, but Namoo should have been here. Also glad I guessed Affairs of the Art because I’d have been so mad if I didn’t guess it and it got on. Also thrilled for The Windshield Wiper. That deserved to make it.
Big takeaways: I somehow got 4/5. That’s really the takeaway here. Otherwise, Bestia’s the best short here, but it sure looks like Aardman will somehow end up winning this, doesn’t it?
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At this point, I think all I need to watch from this is Parallel Mothers (which I’ll do within the week), Writing with Fire (which I may not even get to see until after the ceremony, since it premieres on PBS on March 28th) and On My Mind. So really just two things I gotta find and see, and really in the end, just the one short. That’s an easy year for me.
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Nominee Breakdown:
- The Power of the Dog — 12 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound)
- Dune — 10 nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound)
- Belfast — 7 nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay,
- West Side Story — 7 nominations (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound)
- King Richard — 6 nominations (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Song)
- Don’t Look Up — 4 nominations (Picture, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score)
- Drive My Car — 4 nominations (Picture, Director, Screenplay, International Feature)
- Nightmare Alley — 4 nominations (Picture, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design)
- Being the Ricardos — 3 nominations (Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor)
- CODA — 3 nominations (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
- Encanto — 3 nominations (Score, Song, Animated Feature)
- Flee — 3 nominations (Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature)
- Licorice Pizza — 3 nominations (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay)
- No Time to Die — 3 nominations (Song, Visual Effects, Sound)
- The Lost Daughter — 3 nominations (Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
- The Tragedy of Macbeth — 3 nominations (Actor, Cinematography, Production Design)
- Cruella — 2 nominations (Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Parallel Mothers — 2 nominations (Actress, Score)
- The Eyes of Tammy Faye — 2 nominations (Actress, Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Tick, Tick… Boom! — 2 nominations (Actor, Editing)
- The Worst Person in the World — 2 nominations (Original Screenplay, International Feature)
- Ascension — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Attica — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Coming 2 America — 1 nomination (Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Cyrano — 1 nomination (Costume Design)
- Four Good Days — 1 nomination (Song)
- Free Guy — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- The Hand of God — 1 nomination (International Feature)
- House of Gucci — 1 nomination (Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Luca — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom — 1 nomination (International Feature)
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- Raya and the Last Dragon — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- Spencer — 1 nomination (Actress)
- Spider-Man: No Way Home — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- Summer of Soul — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Writing with Fire — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
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Let’s see how I did:
- 8/10 in Picture
- 5/5 in Animated Feature
- 4/5 in Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Song, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound, International Feature, Documentary Feature, Animated Short
- 3/5 in Supporting Actress, Score, Visual Effects
- 2/5 in Editing, Live Action Short
- 1/5 in Documentary Short
So that’s 87/120. 72.5%. Slightly weaker than average, but right on target with what I’d expect given the certain two extra certain nominees and the one less category. Plus I did especially bad in two of the Shorts categories given the extra shortlists. So in all I feel pretty good about that.
There were some places I knew I’d probably get stuff wrong and couldn’t be bothered to spend time thinking about all the permutations. I can live with all of it. 9 of my First Alternates made it and 7 Dark Horses. And honestly, no real major surprises came in that I didn’t at least consider (in the major categories, anyway. There’s no such thing as a surprise in the Shorts categories). What’s the only thing that you could consider a legitimate ‘surprise’ nominee? Penelope Cruz? You knew (or, at least I did and said) that felt like a legitimate possibility. Bardem you knew could happen, same for Simmons. The Worst Person in the World in Screenplay is really the only thing I’d consider a minor surprise, and even then… there were six goddamn contenders the entire race. You can’t be that surprised they found another movie that got nominated elsewhere and voted for it. Everything else is more of a situational, “Oh, so Encanto got Score,” or “So they left Belfast and West Side Story off Editing and put on King Richard and Don’t Look Up.” Nothing’s that surprising. So I’m good. Nothing threw me for a loop outside of maybe some of their particular tastes (but it’s the Oscars… that’s always gonna happen).
Previous totals:
- 2020: 75.4% (89/118)
- 2019: 76.6% (95/124)
- 2018: 74.4% (90/121)
- 2017: 74.5% (91/122)
- 2016: 77% (94/122)
- 2015: 78.5% (95/121)
- 2014: 71.9% (87/121)
- 2013: 76% (92/121)
- 2012: 71% (87/122)
- 2011: 68% (81/119)
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So yeah, that’s your Oscar list. There’s basically nothing in the way of precursors until the end of the month, so it’s gonna be mostly dark here the next couple of weeks. I’ll check in the next time there’s stuff to talk about. Otherwise I’ll start compiling my giant Oscar night article and waiting for stuff to fill in.
Also, did we know that Samuel L. Jackson, Danny Glver, Elaine May and Liv Ullmann were getting honorary awards this year? Because that’s fucking awesome.
(P.S. My Oscar Trivia article is here, and will be updated within the day to account for all the new nominees.)
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