Oscars 2023: The B+ Nominations Ballot

Oh, hello there.

Guess it’s time to be picking Oscar nominees again. Better put on my cardigan and lace up the old sneakers.

This year feels even stranger than last year. There was a time about five years ago where, if I hadn’t seen every single movie by December 30th (even the insignificant ones), I was freaking out (I once went to a theater on December 28th to see Just Getting Started in 2017. That’s how much I had to make sure I saw everything). Now I’m like, “Ehh, haven’t seen two or three of the top films? Fine. The Top Ten list can go up in February.”

But in terms of this stuff — I’m at the point where I basically just roll out of bed for it. Not totally, because I do love it, so I do try to track it as much as I can and talk about it as often as I can. I just don’t have the time to devote to it like I did previously, so a lot of tit just gets rushed. Which is a shame, but at least I still get to do this. I do really enjoy this.

Fortunately I’ve been doing this for so long (and so much of this is based on empirical data anyway) that quite literally almost anyone can do this well if they care to. It’s 70% precursors, 20% doing it enough to know how things usually go (and learning to remove what you want to see from the equation as much as possible) and 10% unknowable chaos that’s gonna happen no matter how much you try to prevent it. I’m here because I love this and because I hope people, through reading this, can see how not difficult this is to do well even with a minimal amount of prep.

So, as we always do, let’s try to guess all the nominees tomorrow and see how well we do.

We start with Best Picture.

Since we went back to 5+ nominees in 2009, only 4 films have been nominated without a precursor (all firmly in the mix elsewhere and very ‘known’ quantities). The PGA alone has matched 109/126 nominees. And with a set list of 10 now, it’s really just a matter of what gets left off and (lately) which foreign film gets on, even though those are now getting major precursors.

Precursors:

• Killers of the Flower Moon – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Oppenheimer – PGA, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA (won), Globes (won)
• American Fiction – PGA, SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Barbie – PGA, SAG, BFCA, Globes
• The Holdovers – PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Poor Things – PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes (won)
• Maestro – PGA, BFCA, Globes
• Past Lives – PGA, BFCA, Globes
• Anatomy of a Fall – PGA, BAFTA, Globes
• The Zone of Interest – PGA, Globes
• The Color Purple – SAG, BFCA
• Saltburn – BFCA
• Air – Globes
• May December – Globes

Usually I’d add a list of other films that could get on simply by virtue of being in play for 3+ other categories, but why bother? I can’t see any of them happening. Sure, maybe Napoleon or Ferrari theoretically could sneak on, but without a precursor, seems like at that point you’re just taking a shot at something different happening. And hey, more power to you. I’m not wasting words on that.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a year this thin at the top with films in contention. Ten films got the majority of the precursors (and only one other film has more than one). I say take those ten and make the other your First Alternate. Especially with two foreign films already on that list of ten. Most other years, I’d be sitting here making the argument that both Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest would be nominated and guessing which PGA film was gonna be left off in favor of one of them. But the PGA nominated them both! They made my argument for me!

Just take the ten, feel pretty good about the fact that you’re gonna get at least nine of them right and don’t be shocked if they manage to sneak The Color Purple on there instead of something else. 9/10 is a coup most years. The fact that you’re in a good spot to go 10/10 with almost zero effort is a gift.

P.S. I know the PGA has never matched 10/10 and I’m sure something will be wrong, but with the year going the way it’s gone I don’t see how you can guess what that difference is gonna be. (Personally, I think if it’s gonna be anything, it’s gonna be The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Verse. The right answer is probably Saltburn, but my gut says it’s animated if it’s gonna be anything.)

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

First Alternate: The Color Purple

Dark Horse: Saltburn

Surprise: The Boy and the Heron, Origin

Shocker: Ferrari, The Iron Claw, Napoleon

Don’t Guess: Air, All of Us Strangers, May December, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Would love to see: The Killer

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Director.

The DGA has only matched 5/5 eight times ever. However, since 2000, they’ve gone 4/5 seventeen times. And, only 4 directors this decade have been nominated without a precursor (3 of their films had Picture nominations). With the names we have this year, don’t stray too far.

Precursors:

• Nolan — BAFTA, DGA, BFCA (won), Globes (won)
• Payne — DGA, BAFTA, BFCA
• Gerwig — DGA, BFCA, Globes
• Lanthimos — DGA, BFCA, Globes
• Scorsese — DGA, BFCA, Globes
• Cooper — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Glazer — BAFTA
• Haigh — BAFTA
• Triet — BAFTA
• Song — Globes

Fun fact: This would be the fourth time Alexander Payne and Martin Scorsese were nominated in the same category. Payne’s three previous nominations all came in years when Scorsese was also nominated. I, personally, want to see that trend continue, because that’s gonna be one of those weird stats that’s fun to bring up (like that Bette Davis and Greer Garson 1939-1945 stretch stat).

This category is one where you know someone from the DGA is getting left off. In 75 years, only 8 times have they matched 5/5 (and that includes years where they nominated ten people!). So you gotta start with the obvious ones and build your guaranteed spots and then work from there to find the outlier.

Nolan’s hit everything and already won twice, so obviously take him. Him getting left off would be an all-time type of snub. Though, granted, they have disrespected him in the past (Dunkirk was his actual first Director nomination). But don’t be stupid. He’s on. Scorsese — not a fucking chance they leave him off. Too much steam for the film and too much respect for him. Payne has gotten on without the DGA before (for Nebraska) and also has been nominated three previous times without a BAFTA nomination. And here he has both of those. He’s on. Even without the DGA, I’d have told you he was on. So that’s three. Your category should start with those three. Past that… there are discussions to be had.

Let’s start by taking off a few of the obvious ones. Haigh is not getting nominated. That’s a hometown BAFTA nomination. The film has no traction. I also think Song has no shot (unfortunately). She’s too ‘new’ a director for them, and the film doesn’t have the type of traction it would need to make her more of a sure thing. The Screenplay nomination will be her reward. That leaves five people.

Next, the two foreign language nominees, Glazer and Triet. Both have BAFTA nominations. That’s huge, as BAFTA has been the harbinger of foreign nominees for a few years now. I should also point out that both directors are not DGA members, so they had no shot at being nominated there (missing the other two is basically expected for foreign nominees). The BAFTA nomination puts them on equal footing with everyone else. Both are very possible as those final two spots.

The other three options are Cooper, Gerwig and Yorgos. Cooper, as we know, has been left off the Oscar list before (for a foreign nominee. Or Yorgos, if you prefer). Normally I’d have expected him to get DGA, miss BAFTA and then say, “Yeah, he’s the outlier.” But he missed DGA and got BAFTA. Which, to me, means he does still have a legitimate shot at this. Especially since, on the other side of the same coin, Yorgos missed BAFTA and got DGA. And BAFTA was the one I’d have assumed for him and wouldn’t have felt too badly about, had he missed DGA. So, while neither may not mean all that much, the BAFTA miss makes Yorgos vulnerable to the extent that the nomination makes Cooper more of a possibility.

That said — every single guess list, no matter how you want to figure it, is going to hinge on one name: Greta Gerwig. She has DGA, BFCA, the Globe, and only missed BAFTA. Previous nominee. Film’s a monster hit. Gonna be nominated everywhere (plus it would be fitting for 2023 that the Barbenheimer double feature got nominated in both Picture and Director). That said, knowing his this branch votes and has voted in recent years (and without the BAFTA nomination that would’ve sealed it… doesn’t she feel like the most likely person to be left off this list? As a directorial effort, it’s very mainstream. And this is a branch that routinely leaves off efforts like this or Top Gun in favor of stuff like Triangle of Sadness, Drive My Car, Another Round and Cold War. That’s who they are. Looking at the DGA list, she seems like the obvious outlier. She could still make it (and it could be Yorgos), but her effort, to me, feels like the one. But, again, that’s why she’s the linchpin. You may feel differently, and how you feel about her impacts what your final spot is going to be.

So, knowing I’m gonna make her the outlier leaves me with four people for two spots, Cooper, Glazer, Triet and Yorgos. That leaves three scenarios: 1) put both foreign contenders on; 2) put both mainstream contenders on; 3) split the difference (whichever way). I don’t see option 2 as viable. Putting Yorgos on and thinking they’ll snub Greta in favor of Cooper and still leave off Glazer and Triet feels insane to me. I’d rather put on Cooper and one of them and take both Greta and Yorgos off before I do that. Putting on both foreign nominees, while it sounds daring, might actually be the safest option. You pretty much know one of them is gonna make it, based on recent history, and having both allows you to get whichever one it’s gonna be and actually gives you a good chance at getting both. I don’t know if they’ll get both of them on, but I do think that’s a very legitimate possibility. The most likely scenario is that they split the difference, with one foreign nominee and then either Cooper or Yorgos. However, that’s the trickiest thing to pick, because you can guess the split wrong both ways.

For me — Cooper over Yorgos makes no sense. And since I’ve already got Greta off, that means one of two things: either it’s both Glazer and Triet or it’s Yorgos and one of the two. And looking at the latter scenario… Glazer just feels more likely than Triet. Triet’s film feels more screenplay heavy, whereas Glazer’s film just feels designed for him to get all the love. Even if they leave it of Picture, I can see him getting on Director. So, not buying that Cooper will have the kind of rabid support to overcome all of these people and believing they’re gonna reject Greta’s work as too mainstream and feel the other nominations are enough, I feel like it’s most likely Yorgos and Glazer. Though I could also see Yorgos getting left off for Triet as well. The precursors are set up for that to happen.

You’ve got 8 legitimate people for 5 spots, which is rare. Crazy stuff could happen. But at least you’ve got a set 3 to start from and can feel good that you shouldn’t get less than 3/5 unless something nuclear and insane happens. The rest is just hoping it all breaks your way. Let’s see what happens.

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 

First Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Surprise: Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Celine Song, Past Lives

Shocker: Ava DuVernay, Origin; Emerald Fennell, Saltburn; Todd Haynes, May December

Don’t Guess: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction; Michael Mann, Ferrari; Ridley Scott, Napoleon

Would love to see: Song get nominated. That would be pretty cool.

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Actor.

Since 2001, only 3 actors have been nominated without precursors (all of whom you saw coming, none since 2014). SAG has never matched less than 3/5 and went 4/5 or 5/5 eight times this decade.

Precursors:

• Cooper — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Domingo — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Giamatti — SAG (won), BAFTA, BFCA, Globes (won)
• Murphy — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes (won)
• Wright — SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Keoghan — BAFTA, Globes
• DiCaprio – BFCA, Globes
• Yoo — BAFTA
• Cage — Globes
• Chalamet — Globes
• Damon — Globes
• Phoenix — Globes
• Scott — Globes

This is pretty much a six for five situation.

Everyone else — Cage, Chalamet, Damon and Phoenix are all never gonna happen. Scott, with BAFTA, I’d say could be a surprise, but without it (which is insane, by the way, given how that film fared at BAFTA), not happening. Yoo, with BAFTA, makes him a longshot, but not someone I’d say you want to go out on the limb to guess. Keoghan — I think we’d all be pretty surprised there.

Starting with the obvious — Giamatti and Cillian have split everything and been nominated everywhere, so put them on first. Cooper has hit everything and I can’t see them leaving him off both Director and Actor. So he’s on. Also, I know he missed SAG and BAFTA, but does anyone truly think Leo is gonna be left off of this one? I can’t. That’s four to start. That, unfortunately, leaves me with a tough decision for fifth.

I should start by pointing out that Domingo has also hit every precursor, one of the rare times (possibly only times) we’ve had four people hit every precursor. I should also point out that his film is going to get nominated nowhere else. Possibly Song. Maybe. That’s about it. Which does make him more likely to be left off. Especially since his competition for that fifth spot is Jeffrey Wright, a beloved actor in a film likely getting a Best Picture nomination. That probably should make Wright the default fifth choice.

However, there are a few things I need to point out. Since 2001, only one time did someone hit all 4 precursors and then not be nominated (Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips in 2013, oddly enough in a category that somehow involved Bradley Cooper, Leo and an acting nominee from an Alexander Payne film). So it’s almost unprecedented for that to happen. The other thing — if Wright gets nominated (and the rest of the category plays out as expected), it would likely mean that all five nominated actors would be in Best Picture nominees. That has only happened 5 times ever (1942, 1943, 1963, 1966 and… 2013). So take that for what you will.

On precursors alone, it’s more likely that Leo gets left off and both Domingo and Wright get on. But it would be so strange to me to see that happen, given how well Leo’s film is gonna do everywhere else, plus his stature as an actor. I feel weird guessing that, even though, for safety purposes, it’s probably the smarter play. People really like Wright too, so I can so easily see him getting his flowers on this one. Domingo feels the most vulnerable, given how his film has no real support compared to everyone else (and I just can’t assume they’re gonna leave Cooper off, even though a not insignificant part of me does feel like it’s more of a possibility than we all want to admit to ourselves). So I could see something crazy happening, or I could take what feels obvious and feel like I’m probably gonna get at least 4/5.

I think I’m gonna stick with my guns here and put Domingo and Leo on and leave Wright off. That’s the most likely scenario I can see happening (I’d have felt so much better if Wright got BAFTA, especially given my questions about SAG voting in recent years. Then I’d have had him on without reservation). If Wright gets on, then I’ll be happily wrong. Happily wrong is always better than ‘I knew that was gonna happen’ wrong.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Colman Domingo, Rustin

First Alternate: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Dark Horse: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Surprise: Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid (or Napoleon); Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Shocker: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Matt Damon, Air; Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Don’t Guess: Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario; Christian Friedel, The Zone of Interest; Franz Rogowski, Passages

Would love to see: Wright get nominated (also respect to Efron and Damon)

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Actress.

Since 2001, only 5 actresses were nominated without precursors (2 this decade). SAG has never matched below 3/5 and were 4/5 or 5/5 six times this decade.

Precursors:

• Mulligan — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Robbie — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Stone — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA (won) Globes (won)
• Gladstone — SAG, BFCA, Globes (won)
• Huller — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Bening — SAG, Globes
• Barrino — BAFTA, Globes
• Lee — BFCA, Globes
• Lawrence — Globes
• Oparah — BAFTA
• Portman — Globes
• Poysti — Globes
• Spaeny — Globes

Pretty sure we can see this one coming from a mile away.

Mulligan, Robbie and Stone have hit everything, and there’s not enough other legitimate contenders out there to make me say they’re gonna snub one of them (Robbie would be the one, by the way). Gladstone’s hit everything but BAFTA, but she’s a lock too. So that’s 4. And Huller hit everything but SAG, and I’d bet she’s not a member of SAG and couldn’t be nominated there, which means you’ve got your category without any fuss.

No one else really has any support. Bening is a situation that happens every year, and fortunately she only ended up at the 2 precursors, so I don’t have to loudly make that same argument yet again. Barrino getting BAFTA is nice and tells me the film could maybe sneak on somewhere else on the ballor, but I don’t think any of us see that happening. And Lee, while we’d love it, I think we all know where that’s headed.

This one feels like the obvious five.

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

First Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives

Dark Horse: Natalie Portman, May December

Surprise: Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Shocker: Alma Poysti, Fallen Leaves; Annette Bening, Nyad; Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Don’t Guess: Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla; …and anyone else, really.

Would love to see: Kaitlyn Dever, No One Will Save You

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Supporting Actor.

Since 2001, 6 actors have been nominated without precursors (only 2 this decade, both of whom came along with another nominee/their film). SAG has been largely dependable past decade (though they do have two 2/5s).

Precursors:

• De Niro — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Downey — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA (won), Globes (won)
• Gosling — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Brown — SAG, BFCA
• Dafoe — SAG, Globes
• Melton — BFCA, Globes
• Ruffalo — BFCA, Globes
• Elordi — BAFTA
• Mescal — BAFTA
• Sessa — BAFTA

This one is gonna be fascinating. I can see some crazy shit happening here.

We’ll start with the obvious — De Niro, Downey and Gosling hit all four precursors. They’re on. De Niro, I’d almost have tried to make the case against, but with BAFTA ignoring both Leo and Lily and nominating him, you gotta guess him. Downey’s won two already. And Gosling just makes too much sense. So that’s three.

Then, to eliminate a few people — Mescal isn’t gonna happen without the film overperforming, and that does not seem to be on the agenda. Elordi got BAFTA, but no one sees that happening, so just let it. And Melton (and his film) has no traction, and just feels very unlikely. Typically the surprise nominees come from films they really liked. Again, just let them nominate him.

That leaves four people for two spots. Two are from the same film. We should probably deal with them first. Dafoe got SAG/Globes and Ruffalo got BFCA/Globes. Neither a particularly strong case. SAG is as much a popularity contest as the Globes are, and Ruffalo missing the two bodies voted on by Academy members is a real question mark. Between the two, I’d side with Ruffalo for the nomination over Dafoe, but it’s just as likely neither get nominated as it is both get nominated.

That leaves two people who I think legitimately can make it on. First is Brown. He’s loved. However, with just SAG and BFCA, I’m worried. SAG is a popularity contest and BFCA… it just does not feel like the right recipe to me. But, if the film gets on Picture and Wright gets nominated, it’s very likely he comes along too. The other contender is Sessa. And considering how well The Holdovers is liked, how Payne tends to pick up acting nominations for his actors, and how they have, in recent years, gone for someone in something they really liked (LaKeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons) in those final spots tells me he’s got a legitimate chance to make it on. The drawback for him, though, is that he’s never acted before. A first-timer doesn’t really faze them in Supporting, so I’m not sure how legitimate a knock that really is.

My gut tells me the two likeliest scenarios here are Dafoe and Ruffalo both getting on or it’s one of the two (I’m going Ruffalo, personally) and Sessa as the second. I’m torn between both. I really want to guess Sessa and take that shot. However, we’re on four consecutive years of double acting nominees from the same film and I kinda want to see it get to five (and six of seven, at that).

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

First Alternate: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Dark Horse: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Surprise: Charles Melton, May December; Jacob Elordi, Saltburn (or Priscilla)

Shocker: Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry; Holt McCallany, The Iron Claw; Ben Whishaw, Passages

Don’t Guess: Ben Affleck, Air; John Magaro, Past Lives; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Would love to see: I like this category, but respect for Charles Melton.

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Supporting Actress.

Since 2001, 6 actresses have been nominated without precursors (3 this decade), all of whom came along with another nominee/their film. SAG’s gone 4/5 or 5/5 seven times this decade and have only gone below 3/5 once since 2001 (2021).

Precursors:

• Randolph — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA (won), Globes (won)
• Blunt — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Brooks — SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Foster — SAG, BFCA, Globes
• Pike — BAFTA, Globes
• Moore — BFCA, Globes
• Cruz — SAG
• Foy — BAFTA
• Huller — BAFTA
• Ferrera — BFCA

This one is rough. This is the hardest part. Because we know Randolph is gonna win. All four precursors plus two wins already plus a category begging for an easy vote — that’s a gimme. But picking the other four feels nearly impossible. But she’s one, and Blunt will come along with her film (plus they love her and have been looking for a reason to nominate her for years). So you’ve got two to start, which is at least a foundation.

Theoretically you have three people, since Brooks hit all four precursors. But, honestly, any other year I’d be telling you how she’s just prime to be left off. Sole nomination from a film that may get shut out everywhere else? That’s just low hanging fruit. But, with no real gimmes anywhere else, I don’t see how you don’t guess her. I could see SAG going 2/5 and only getting Randolph and Blunt, but with all four precursors, Brooks seems about as safe an option as anyone (though she’s not as much of a lock as the other two are).

The other thing we have to do, in a category like this, is look for people who could sneak on out of nowhere. But all I can find this year are Rachel McAdams (not happening. The film has no traction and it’s a pipe dream I’m not willing to entertain) and Cara Jade Myers (which would potentially mean nominations in all four acting categories for Killers of the Flower Moon. Which feels a bit much). But, she theoretically could happen, so I’ll add her to this next part, which is a rundown of the possibilities for those final two spots.

• Cruz — she’s only got SAG, which is a popularity contest. Not making the BAFTA longlist tells me there’s no real support there. With the film looking at maybe a Sound nomination and nothing else, she feels like the least likely person on this list to get nominated. (It’s second, but the least likely person I don’t actually consider a legitimate contender like I do her.)
• Ferrera — She only has BFCA, but has generally hung around the race and is in a prime position to ‘come along’ with her film. But given her lack of stature as an actor (comparatively) and the fact that I’m not sure people loved the film to that extent — I’m dubious. She had that Emmys speech and is liked enough that I do think she could surprise, but I’m not sure I wanna guess her. She feels like a surprise at best, and one I’d rather see just happen than try to guess.
• Foster — She is where I expected Annette Bening to be. With enough precursors that I’d actually have to remind a few people that the numbers aren’t everything and it’s not actually gonna happen. Unfortunately this category is so thin that there’s actually a chance she could still get on. But, without BAFTA, I don’t buy it. She also hasn’t been nominated in 30 years, and I feel like her reward is gonna be all the True Detective TV awards she’s gonna get next year. It could happen, but she feels more like a Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell “I guess…” inclusion than someone you want to guess. I’d be happier leaving her off and being wrong than guessing her knowing she won’t make it on.
• Foy — She’s only got BAFTA, has never been nominated (despite a good precursor showing for First Man) and the film has marginal traction at best. You always have to be leery with British films that only do well at BAFTA and nowhere else. Reasonably speaking, she’s the least likely person here to get nominated.
• Huller — Are they really going to double nominate her? Because Actress is pretty much in the bag. Only 11 people ever done it, and none of the performances have been foreign. And both of hers are. I don’t necessarily mind that part, I just feel it should be mentioned. The film is gonna get a bunch of nominations and, if it’s gonna be a serious Picture contender it should get an acting nomination somewhere. She’s a firm contender here, even if the double nomination thing does seem unlikely.
• Moore — She’s got BFCA and the Globes. Only 4 people have ever gotten just those two precursors (missing SAG and BAFTA) and gotten nominated: Maria Tomei (In the Bedroom), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Regina King (Beale Street) and Amanda Seyfried (Mank). It seems weird she’d be nominated when her film has largely fallen flat. She feels like she’s only really in contention because the field is so thin. But again, she could get nominated and no one would bat an eye. So she’s a firm contender.
• Myers — No precursors, but her film is heavily in contention everywhere. And of the 6 nominated without precursors, all of them came along with another acting nominee and half came from films heavily nominated. It’s not out of the question, but does feel very unlikely. She feels more like a surprise than anything else.
• Pike — She’s got BAFTA (which, duh) and the Globes, which somehow feels more helpful than BFCA a lot of the time. She’s in an interesting spot. It sounds like, while there was some divisiveness there, voters liked it more than you’d think. Promising Young Woman was also divisive and that got a bunch of nominations. This won’t do that well, but I could see this getting 2-3 nominations. And even if it doesn’t, I could still see Pike making it on. For every overly divisive failed Oscar film, there’s usually a stray acting or Screenplay nomination to show for it. She’s not the worst play in the world, and actually does have the precursors to qualify as a top contender.

Okay, so what does that all mean to me? I’m not guessing Foy. I don’t think Myers gets on (but would be happy if she did). Cruz is a no. Foster I’m not guessing on principle (let them just do it and undo decades behavior I’ve watched them have). Which means I’ve got Ferrera, Huller, Moore and Pike for two spots. Of those four, I feel like Ferrera is least likely, so I’ll just let her get on. Which means two for three, and I’ll feel okay however that goes. My initial instinct is to put Moore on, but the film really seems like it’s gonna get shut out or maybe get Screenplay only (though Moore and Screenplay would be kinda fitting). Huller as a double nominee feels like a tall order, but I also know the film is gonna get the type of nominations that would put it in line for an acting nomination. And Pike — she’s got precursors, I’ve got questions about the film, and in a stronger year she’d be a fringe #5, clear Alternate/Dark Horse choice that I’d be iffy about getting on in the end. So, it’s tough.

I guess I’ll take Huller and Pike and put Moore on as the alternate and see what they do. I truly don’t know. I could go 5/5 here or 2/5 here. It’s that kind of year. I’m not overthinking this one.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

First Alternate: Julianne Moore, May December

Dark Horse: Jodie Foster, Nyad

Surprise: Penelope Cruz, Ferrari; America Ferrera, Barbie

Shocker: Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon; Rachel McAdams, Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret.

Don’t Guess: Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers; Erika Alexander, American Fiction`

Would love to see: Tilda Swinton, The Killer

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Original Screenplay.

This past decade, only 2 scripts were nominated without precursors (neither were WGA eligible).

Sadly, the WGA has decided to go off-cycle for the second year in a row, so we’re not gonna have their nominations for a month. So we’re just gonna use what precursors we have and logic to figure this out (shouldn’t be too crazy this year, given the stuff at the top).

Precursors:

• Past Lives — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• The Holdovers — BAFTA, BFCA
• Maestro — BAFTA, BFCA
• Anatomy of a Fall — BAFTA, Globes (won)
• Air — BFCA
• May December — BFCA

Only six scripts got precursors, which is insane. Barbie (which got a lot of Original precursors) is going Adapted, but even so, the lack of original stuff this year with any traction is a real outlier from years past.

Even looking at other films they might respect enough to nominate, the list is really thin. And since foreign films are all over the place, I can’t even pull something like The Worst Person in the World out of my ass (not to mention, a fair amount of the International Feature shortlist are documentaries). So I guess we’re just gonna go with this and see what happens.

The Holdovers is 100% on (and likely winning, at this rate). Anatomy of a Fall won the Globe, plus with Actress and Picture in play, there’s no way, with such a thin field, it gets left off. The BAFTA nomination all but seals it. Past Lives is on too. Obviously. And, without much else, you gotta assume Maestro gets on. While that does feel like the type of film to miss out in the big categories but still get like 6 ‘respect but not love’ nominations, I don’t have much else I can use to squeeze it out of this category. So I think it’s on.

Now we’ve got four. That leaves Air and May December as the two left with precursors, and both are BFCA only. I looked at how scripts did with just BFCA (or just BFCA and WGA), but the real telltale sign I noticed while doing that is that really the thing that predicts nominations is the amount of critics awards the scripts get. And Air got almost no critics awards, while May December got a bunch. Also, I should mention — since Emerald Fennell is a previous winner and Saltburn is largely in cntention places (and I think a WGA nomination is likely down the road), I do think that’s a legitimate alternate/potential guess. I’m not doing it, but I think you could.

I’m gonna stick with the critics awards for May December and see what happens. I still think there’s a chance Maestro gets left off too, so I’m fully expecting a 3/5 here and some wild shit to happen. Anything above 3/5 I get is gravy.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

First Alternate: Saltburn

Dark Horse: Air

Surprise: Fallen Leaves, The Iron Claw

Shocker: Asteroid City, Rustin

Don’t Guess: Bottoms, Napoleon, The Starling Girl

Would love to see: No One Will Save You

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Adapted Screenplay.

In the past decade, 1 script was nominated without precursors, and it was a Coen brothers script. And the WGA, when things are eligible, usually nails it by themselves. Not that we have them. But eventually, they’ll probably get it right.

Precursors:

• Barbie — BAFTA, BFCA (won), Globes
• Oppenheimer — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Poor Things — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Killers of the Flower Moon — BFCA, Globes
• All of Us Strangers — BAFTA, BFCA
• American Fiction — BAFTA, BFCA (won)
• The Zone of Interest — BAFTA
• Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret. — BFCA

Not only did we have a strong field to start with, Barbie is Adapted despite getting precursors in Original. So we really don’t have to look very far in this one. But we do have to guess what’s gonna be left off. Because something is gonna get left off.

Barbie has hit everything and already won something. Plus it’s universally acknowledged as a feat of creating something out of basically nothing. I can’t imagine they leave that off. Oppenheimer — obviously on. They don’t always respect Nolan the writer but I think this one is pretty clearly one to nominate. Poor Things — I’d be surprised if they left that off. Yorgos has two nominations already and the Lobster nomination tells me it’s basically a done deal. So that’s three.

Looking at the others with precursors — Are You There God is not gonna get nominated (as awesome as that would be). I think we understand that. All of Us Strangers… if that was in Original, I’d have already jumped on it. The field as-is is too tough and they’d have to reject multiple things to put it on. I can’t see it. Really, the final two spots are gonna be between American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon and The Zone of Interest. Which is a tough one.

American Fiction won BFCA and has BAFTA. Killers of the Flower Moon got BFCA/Globes, and Zone of Interest only has BAFTA. My immediate thought is that Killers of the Flower Moon is the one they’re most likely gonna leave off, but I don’t know. They nominated The Irishman and this is kind of a ‘bigger deal’ type of movie than that was. And between American Fiction and Zone of Interest… you know, I’m just gonna leave Zone of Interest off, since my gut says that’s more of a ‘Director’ type film, and American Fiction feels like an easy film to get Picture, Screenplay and possibly Actor and nothing else. But either way, those two, the only reason one gets left off is because of space. Both are right there. Either way, this one should be a pretty easy 4/5.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

First Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Dark Horse: All of Us Strangers

Surprise: Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret, Origin

Shocker: The Killer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Nyad

Don’t Guess: BlackBerry; The Color Purple, Ferrari

Would love to see: That above category is exactly what I’d pick, so… that.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Editing.

ACE nominations are being announced Thursday, so we’ve only got BAFTA and BFCA as precursors.

Precursors:

• Killers of the Flower Moon — BAFTA, BFCA
• Oppenheimer — BAFTA, BFCA (won)
• Poor Things — BAFTA, BFCA
• Anatomy of a Fall — BAFTA
• Zone of Interest — BAFTA
• Air — BFCA
• Barbie — BFCA
• Maestro — BFCA

While we don’t have ACE, we do have this statistic: only 4 Editing nominees from the past decade were not nominated for Best Picture. All of them got 3-5 nominations but one (which got 2). Also, only 2 films since 2009 have been nominated without a single precursor (both Picture nominees).

Here, I think we have a pretty good feel at which contenders are likely to get nominated. Oppenheimer is on. Killers of the Flower Moon is on (it’s Thelma. Don’t fuck around). And you know everyone loves The Holdovers, so I’m not leaving that off until they don’t nominate it. Poor Things — guess they could leave if off if they’re more gung ho about something else (like, say, Anatomy of a Fall), but I feel safe keeping that on too. Barbie — I just don’t think it’s gonna get Editing. Editing is a sign of a real contender. Plus, with the film already looking at like, 7 other nominations (two acting, possibly three Song), they’re not gonna nominate it everywhere. They only nominate it where it makes sense. And this is one where it doesn’t really make sense. I’m not rushing to add that here, even though it so easily could get on.

To me, the fifth spot is either Zone of Interest or Maestro. Usually I’d say Maestro is the obvious Academy choice — music, spans decades, very showy. But I don’t know if they really love that movie. Maybe it gets on regardless. Zone of Interest, meanwhile — that film feels like it’s gonna have hardcore support. Is the totality of that support enough? We’ll find out. But I feel okay guessing the snub on Maestro and the inclusion of Zone of Interest (which could also be Anatomy of a Fall as well. I do think one of the foreign choices will manage to sneak on here).

Best Editing

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

First Alternate: Maestro

Dark Horse: Anatomy of a Fall

Surprise: Barbie, Ferrari

Shocker: Air, American Fiction, Saltburn

Don’t Guess: The Iron Claw, The Killer, Past Lives

Would love to see: How to Blow Up a Pipeline

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Cinematography.

Only 3 films since 2009 have been nominated without precursors and ASC alone is 4/5 or 5/5 every year but one (last year, oddly enough) since 2006. Usually this category’s pretty obvious.

Precursors:

• Killers of the Flower Moon — ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
• Maestro, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
• Oppenheimer — ASC, BAFTA, BFCA (won)
• Poor Things — ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
• El Conde — ASC
• Zone of Interest — BAFTA
• Barbie — BFCA
• Saltburn — BFCA

The major note I should put out there: Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon are both Rodrigo Prieto, and I just don’t see them nominating him twice. And I think we all know which of the two is more likely.

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and Maestro have all hit every precursor, and they’re Prieto, Hoyte and Matthew Libatique. I feel confident in saying all three are 100% on. Poor Things has also hit all the precursors, and just watching 20 minutes of that film tells you it’s gonna get on. So that’s an easy four.

It comes down to the open fifth spot. ASC nominated El Conde out of nowhere. Which is by Ed Lachman, a hugely respected DP. So I fully understand that. Do I think that’ll get nominated? Not at all. But, in a thin year, it’s not fully out of the question. Barbie would surprise me, Saltburn wouldn’t so much (since it is Linus Sandgren) but would be interesting. Since 2009, only 6 films got nominated without ASC or BAFTA. 3 were without any precursors and 3 were BFCA only. So Barbie and Saltburn would be moderately eyebrow raising (mostly because they nominated them over the other choices) and anything else would be pretty surprising, especially since there’s really not all that much out there I would expect to see them nominate.

The film that makes the most sense is Zone of Interest, especially with the BAFTA nomination. The DP is Lukasz Zal, previous nominee for Ida and Cold War. Seems too obvious to pass up.

Best Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

First Alternate: El Conde

Dark Horse: Saltburn

Surprise: Barbie, The Holdovers

Shocker: The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon

Don’t Guess: Asteroid City, The Creator, The Killer, Nyad, Priscilla

Would love to see: The Holdovers

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Score.

Shortlist:

American Fiction
American Symphony
Barbie
The Boy and the Heron
The Color Purple
Elemental
The Holdovers
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest

Since 2010, 6 scores have been nominated without precursors. Only one (Da 5 Bloods) has happened since the shortlists began in 2018.

Precursors:

• Killers of the Flower Moon — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Oppenheimer — BAFTA, BFCA (won), Globes (won)
• Poor Things — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — BAFTA, BFCA, Globes
• Satlburn — BAFTA
• Barbie — BFCA
• Society of the Snow — BFCA
• Boy and the Heron — Globes
• Zone of Interest — Globes

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and Poor Things hit all the precursors, are gonna be among the most nominated films, and are the backbone of your list. After that, let’s talk.

We have to start with the obvious. I hate that we do, but this branch has made it pretty abundantly clear every shortlist, so we have to. American Fiction, American Symphony and The Color Purple are (mostly) here because the branch has an unofficial quota to get women and Black people on the shortlist. They’ve done this for every shortlist they’ve put out to this point. And they never nominate those scores. So I can’t pretend like any of them have a chance. They also have zero precursors, which makes it even more abundantly clear that they have little to no shot at actually making the category and are only here for inclusionary purposes (which is a shame, because the American Fiction score at least is really great).

Other scores without precursors — Elemental. Pixar doesn’t get nominated anymore (once since 2009). They respect the hell out of Thomas Newman, and he has 4 nominations this past decade, but without a precursor, you can’t expect a Pixar score to make it on anymore. Next, The Holdovers. They will instinctively nominate the scores for the movies they really liked. They do it every year. And, with a composer who has no track record with the Oscars and no precursors, you’re all but assured it won’t get nominated.

The last ‘no precursor’ situation we have to discuss. Because it’s John Williams. In the past 50 years, in the years where he’s scored at least one film, he’s been nominated (at least once) all but 6 times (1976, 1979, 1986, 1992, 2008, 2016. Only twice in the past 30 years). Point is, when John Williams composes a score, he gets nominated. Regardless of precursors. However, it’s Indy and not Star Wars. And it’s not Spielberg, either. So there’s a lot of reason to assume they will leave him off. However, his track record almost says you have to guess him. And your list is gonna hinge on what you do with him.

That leaves six scores, all of which have precursors. First, Society of the Snow. Giacchino is not a composer this branch respects. He’s only ever been nominated twice, both for Pixar (going on 15-20 years ago, too), and has only been shortlisted once since then. I don’t see it, especially over John Williams, who is an institution. Next, Barbie. Probably a situation where it came along with their love of the film. Mark Ronson is technically a previous winner (for Song). But, with only BFCA as a precursor… that’s not really the one you want. It could happen, but I think we all see this as a ‘likely not’ situation. Next is Saltburn. It’s got BAFTA. Which is nice. Solid point in its favor. Point against it — Anthony Willis is a newcomer who is unlikely to have the respect of the branch the way John Williams will. Plus, the film doesn’t have the kind of overall support for me to think the score is gonna get on too. So it’s questionable. However, if Williams is left off for the final spot, all bets are off and anything can happen. It’s possible. I just see better options there.

Next is Boy and the Heron. Conventional wisdom says it shouldn’t happen. However, it is Miyazaki, and we know how beloved he is, and Joe Hisaishi is essentially his John Williams. Maybe some people are at the point where they want to recognize him. But, just the Globe nomination (not even a win), there’s not much momentum there and I’m not sure the majority of people really know Hisaishi enough to want to vote for him. I also don’t know just how much support the film truly has. So I’d put this closer to dark horse/surprise than I would a guess, but I also don’t think it’s a terrible guess, because I do think it’s one of the most legitimate contenders remaining.

Last, we have the two most likely contenders. First, Across the Spider-Verse. Animated scores have been sparse the past decade (just 3). However, these Spider-Verse films are loved and Pemberton is someone the branch does seem to like (even though he’s only actually ever been nominated for Score and not Song). Plus being nominated for all 3 precursors is a big deal. Since 2001, only 4 scores hit all 3 precursors and failed to get nominated (despite being eligible to be nominated). And, for trivia purposes, they were The Aviator, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, 12 Years a Slave and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. Last year. Animated. Just saying. So history is both on Spider-Verse’s side, but there’s also that little bit of doubt there. The BAFTA nomination is big, though. It means there’s legitimate support there and it very likely could happen. The final contender is Zone of Interest. Mica Levi. Previous nominee for Jackie and composer of Under the Skin (which people openly loved a decade ago). Only nominated at the Globes, which isn’t the best situation but isn’t nothing. I’d have liked to see it hit BAFTA too, but I still feel, with the support for the film, it’s still a firm contender.

To me, the decision for the final spots come down to four scores (Saltburn could happen, but I’ll just let it): Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones, Spider-Verse and Zone of Interest. I don’t see two animated scores making it on, so you’ll have to make a decision there. But, I’m gonna take the precursors with Spider-Verse and see if that holds true (even though my gut says it’s more likely to be left off than not, knowing this branch), and I’m gonna take the history and John Williams. I feel pretty confident Boy and the Heron will be left off, but I do have a suspicion that Zone of Interest will make it. So that’s probably where I’m gonna get tripped up. But I’m also aware that putting it on all these categories is gonna leave me picking it for like 8 nominations, which just doesn’t happen with foreign films. Only 8 foreign films ever have managed 6 nominations. It’s possible, just… make sure you look big picture and don’t just focus category to category. Because things will even out most of the time to where things only get a ‘reasonable’ number of nominations.

Best Original Score

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

First Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Dark Horse: The Boy and the Heron

Surprise: Barbie, Saltburn

Shocker: American Fiction, American Symphony, Society of the Snow

Don’t Guess: Elemental, The Holdovers, The Color Purple

Would love to see: American Fiction get nominated

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Song.

Shortlist:

“Am I Dreaming,” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
“It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony
“Dear Alien Who Art in Heaven,” from Asteroid City
“Dance the Night,” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken, from Barbie
“What Was I Made for,” from Barbie
“Keep It Movin’,” from The Color Purple
“Superpower,” from The Color Purple
“The Fire Inside,” from Flamin’ Hot
“High Life,” from Flora and Son
“Meet in the Middle,” from Flora and Son
“Can’t Catch Me Now,” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“Quiet Eyes,” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom,” from Rustin

We’ve had 5 shortlists to this point. The precursors since then have gone 4/5, 4/5, 5/5, 4/5, 3/5. They generally guide the way. This year it’s impossible for them to go 5/5 since only four songs have precursors. But at least three of them seem pretty automatic, so that makes your job easier.

Precursors:

• “Dance the Night” — BFCA, Globes
• “I’m Just Ken” — BFCA (won), Globes
• “Road to Freedom” — BFCA, Globes
• “What Was I Made For” — BFCA, Globes (won)

You ever just feel really confident about a category? That’s how I feel here. Which means I’m gonna get 2 right.

It’s impossible to not feel confident with this one. The three Barbie songs are the anchors of the category and you’re basically guaranteed to get a minimum of 3/5 even if they go rogue. But my confidence is more so in the rest of the rankings down below. I feel like I’ve got all 15 down cold.

Look at this one from the ground up — not a chance they’re gonna nominate a rap song from Spider-Verse. That’s just not them at all. This is also the group that didn’t nominate any song from Sing Street. I’m not sure why anyone would expect them to nominate either song from Flora and Son (or have even watched that movie). “Dear Alien” — it’s not “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings.” It’s about a minute long and doesn’t really have lyrics. It’s cute, but if they nominate that, it shows me that people didn’t really pay attention when they voted (plus, I’m not sure they like the film the way they liked Buster Scruggs). I don’t buy it until they do it.

“Quiet Eyes” is your annual ‘song from the indie darling’ that gets shortlisted but never gets nominated (see also: CODA, Minari). Most of you didn’t even know there was an original song in that movie. That’s how you know they won’t nominate it. “Wahzhazhe” — the shortlist is its prize. They’re not going any further than that because after the shortlist, they all have to confront the fact that they nominated it out of respect for Marty and white guilt and realize that they don’t actually like the song all that much. Just let them nominate it if they’re gonna. But again, that’s a situation where the film doesn’t need a stray nomination like this, and they know it’ll get enough votes elsewhere. “Can’t Catch Me Now” — I am about 97% confident that the majority of voters, until they hear the song, will have just assumed Rachel Zegler (who they all liked in West Side Story) sings it. Then they’ll have no idea who Olivia Rodrigo is and dismiss it on that alone. It’s not getting nominated.

Then you’ve got the two Color Purple nominees. 15 years ago, at least one of them would be a lock, if not both. 10 years ago, probably one would get on as kind of an afterthought to a song everyone knew would win. Now? Seems like no one cares. However, of the two, “Keep It Movin'” is the one that has some energy to it, so that’s the one I’d look at for the nomination. But it more has the air of ‘it wouldn’t surprise, but I’m not guessing it’ than ‘oh yeah, it’s on’.

All of that — that’s what I’m confident in. I feel like I know this branch cold and know what they’re gonna do (and want to see them prove me wrong).

That leaves only six songs I truly think have a shot at this. The three Barbie songs you have to guess. Just let them leave one of them off if they’re gonna (“Dance the Night” is the one, in case you’re wondering). I don’t see a logical reason for them to leave any off, so I’m not guessing that they will. However, two songs makes more sense than three in an outcome sense (but that means they’re voting based on logistics and not what they thought the best songs are, and I just can’t support that).

Next, let’s just get it out there — the Flamin’ Hot song is Diane Warren. They haven’t not nominated her yet when she’s been shortlisted, so I see no reason why they wouldn’t do that shit again. Tell It Like a Woman, Four Good Days, Breakthrough — they’ve been nominating mediocre songs from forgettable (at best) movies for years. Why assume they’re gonna do something different now?

Past that, you’re looking at Lenny Kravitz for Rustin and Jon Batiste for his documentary. Personally, I feel like Batiste is more likely to get on, just on song quality, but Kravitz has the double precursors, which have been pretty accurate to this point (and there are questions about why Batiste was shortlisted, which I raised in Score), so I’ll guess Kravitz (though there’s a chance both get on and “Dance the Night” gets left off). But at that point, whatever, I can’t sit here and parse through this. I’m gonna just put the guesses down and let the chips fall where they may. You see all of this. I’m gonna feel good about the work anyway, regardless of the grade.

Also, if this happens, your Song category is gonna be 80% comprised of songs from movies based on dolls and Cheetos. And the other nominee will be the token song dealing with the struggle of Black people in America. Somehow that is just the most fitting representation of everything that is this country.

Update: The Oscars have the 2-song limit per film (which, in my haste, I completely forgot about). So I’ve updated this to take the obvious Barbie outlier, “Dance the Night” off, and put my first alternate on. It just bumped the American Symphony Song on and the two Color Purple songs as the First Alternate and Dark Horse. “Dance the Night” would, admittedly, be a surprise if it got on, just because it means one of the other songs would get snubbed and no one really sees that happening.

Best Original Song

“It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony

“I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie

“The Fire Inside,” from Flamin’ Hot

“Road to Freedom,” from Rustin

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Alternate: “Keep It Movin’,” from The Color Purple

Dark Horse: “Superpower,” from The Color Purple

Surprise: “Dance the Night,” from Barbie; “Can’t Catch Me Now,” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Shocker: “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “Dear Alien Who Art in Heaven,” from Asteroid City; “Quiet Eyes,” from Past Lives

Don’t Guess: “Am I Dreaming,” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; “High Life,” from Flora and Son; “Meet in the Middle,” from Flora and Son

Would Love to see: Anything from the ‘Don’t Guess’ tier get nominated

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Production Design.

Only 2 films since 2009 were nominated without precursors. None since 2011. ADG by itself has only missed 5 nominees since 2010 (BAFTA had 3 of those). Now the Set Decorators have awards too. You’re covered six ways from Sunday here.

Precursors:

• Barbie – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA (won), SDSA
• Killers of the Flower Moon – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA, SDSA
• Oppenheimer – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA, SDSA
• Poor Things – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA, SDSA
• Saltburn – ADG, BFCA, SDSA
• Asteroid City – ADG, BFCA
• Maestro – ADG, SDSA
• Napoleon – ADG, SDSA
• Guardians Vol. 3 – ADG, SDSA
• The Killer – ADG, SDSA
• Mission: Impossible – ADG, SDSA
• Wonka – ADG, SDSA
• The Creator — ADG
• Beau Is Afraid — ADG
• John Wick: Chapter 4 — ADG
• Zone of Interest — BAFTA
• American Fiction – SDSA
• Are You There God – SDSA
• Candy Cane Lane – SDSA
• The Hunger Games – SDSA
• Indiana Jones – SDSA
• Leave the World Behind – SDSA
• Little Mermaid – SDSA
• May December – SDSA

Looking at the four that have the most precursors — does anyone think Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer or Poor Things aren’t gonna get nominated? Me neither. That’s 4/5 right there and already you’re set.

All you gotta do is pick what you think is the most likely #5. Paring down the list of films with precursors (since contemporary stuff never gets nominated), we’re left with about 6 options that make sense.

First, we’ll start with Asteroid City. Because it’s Wes Anderson. Grand Budapest won this category, but none of his other films have ever been nominated. I don’t see why we’d assume this one would get on. Missing BAFTA is a big miss for them. So I think you just have to let that one be a (pleasant) surprise. Next — Wonka. Legitimate contender, but it only hit the guilds in the Fantasy category, and given that the guild nominated 15 films per year… not the biggest contender in the world. I’d have liked to see BAFTA there to take it seriously. Otherwise it’s just something that could beat me. I’m fine with that.

The elephant in the room is Saltburn. Which is contemporary. It’s big and garish, but the branch has a real aversion to contemporary films. There have only been four things that could be deemed contemporary nominated in the past decade. Two of them (Her, La La Land), had aspects (low key futurism, musical numbers) that made them not strictly contemporary. The other two: one was Parasite, and I think we all understand that one, and the other was The Father, which used the shifting of the sets to reflect Hopkins’ failing mental state. Saltburn — just kind of a big, rich people house. Unless they’re gonna nominate it for that bathtub, I’m not sure I see it. I’m not fully ruling it out, and it could happen, but I’d be surprised if it pulled that final spot over all the other choices.

The remaining three — Maestro has the guild, but missed both BAFTA and BFCA. That’s questionable. But, its status as a big contender could muscle it on. It’s the right type of period for them and feels like an easy inclusion no one would really question. Next — Napoleon. Ridley’s films don’t really do all that well here. The Martian, American Gangster, Gladiator, Blade Runner, Alien. That’s all he’s ever gotten. You’d think this film would be exactly the type of thing they go for… but the film hasn’t really caught on. Just the guilds isn’t the best endorsement ever, but also isn’t nothing. Maybe it could, but I don’t see enough concrete evidence to say for sure. Last is Zone of Interest. That got BAFTA, which is big. But also could be a red herring as well.

I can see any one of the three getting on. I feel like Maestro is the most likely to get on, Zone of Interest is second and Napoleon is third. All three could happen. I’m gonna take Maestro, because I’ll still be happy if it doesn’t make it and one of the others does (plus I’m wary about including Zone of Interest in too many categories).

Best Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

First Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Dark Horse: Napoleon

Surprise: Saltburn, Wonka

Shocker: Asteroid City, The Killer, Mission: Impossible

Don’t Guess: The Creator, The Color Purple, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, The Holdovers

Would love to see: As long as Barbie and Poor Things are nominated, all is right with the world.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Costume Design.

Only 6 films since 2009 were nominated without a precursor (and no more than 1 in a year), and CDG has predicted at least 4/5 nominees all but twice since 2005 (and those two were 3/5). So this one’s generally easy. Just make sure you also look for the frills.

Precursors:

• Barbie – CDG, BAFTA, BFCA (won)
• Killers of the Flower Moon – CDG, BAFTA, BFCA
• Napoleon – CDG, BAFTA, BFCA
• Poor Things – CDG, BAFTA, BFCA
• Oppenheimer – CDG, BAFTA
• Maestro – CDG
• Haunted Mansion – CDG
• Hunger Games – CDG
• Little Mermaid – CDG
• Rebel Moon – CDG
• Saltburn – CDG
• American Fiction – CDG
• May December – CDG
• Nyad – CDG
• Renfield – CDG
• The Color Purple – BFCA
• Wonka – BFCA

Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon and Poor Things all hit everything. I see no reason why they wouldn’t all be nominated. Which leaves one spot. A recurring theme.

The obvious choice is Oppenheimer, which hit the guild and BAFTA. But, if you’re feeling adventurous, I’m here to help you out.

Take away all contemporary films with precursors. That leaves Maestro, The Color Purple and Wonka. And throw in Ferrari, because it is period, stylish and the designer has been nominated a few times recently. However, regarding Color Purple and Wonka, I should point out: since we’ve had 3 precursors, only 15 nominees managed to get nominated without a guild nomination. 6/15 got no precursors at all. Fair enough. 7/15 got both BAFTA and BFCA. The remaining two had just BAFTA. Which means nothing has ever been nominated with just a BFCA nomination. So I’d be wary about Color Purple and Wonka’s chances. So if you’re going off Oppenheimer for the fifth spot, I’d say your better bets, historically, are either Maestro or Ferrari. Because BAFTA and no precursors is historically better than just BFCA..

Personally, I’m taking Oppenheimer and letting them nominate Maestro or whatever else instead. I feel good about my positioning, and 5/5 in Costumes is great, but never assumed.

Best Costume Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

First Alternate: Maestro

Dark Horse: Ferrari

Surprise: The Color Purple, Wonka

Shocker: The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Saltburn

Don’t Guess: Haunted Mansion, The Little Mermaid, May December, Nyad

Would love to see: They’ll get the important ones (Barbie and Poor Things).

 

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Makeup & Hairstyling.

Shortlist:

Beau Is Afraid
Ferrari
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
Last Voyage of the Demeter
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Three rules for this category: 1) no precursors and not foreign? No chance; 2) acting transformations = nomination; 3) precursors, logic… you’ll be fine.

38 nominees since we’ve had 3 precursors (2013-present). Only 4 films have been nominated without a precursor. 3 of them were foreign. The other was Dallas Buyers Club. A full decade ago. You’re covered.

Precursors:

• Maestro — MU+HS x3, BAFTA, BFCA
• Poor Things — MU+HS x2, BAFTA, BFCA
• Oppenheimer — MU+HS, BAFTA, BFCA
• Golda — MU+HS
• Killers of the Flower Moon — BAFTA
• Napoleon — BAFTA

4 films did not get precursors. Do not guess them. You could maybe guess Society of the Snow, because it’s foreign, but with the lineup here, I’m not sure I’d bother and would just let it get on.

Maestro, Poor Things and Oppenheimer hit everywhere, so guess them. Past that, Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon are the higher profile films, so I say take them. Golda is an acting transformation, sure, but nobody particularly liked it or thought it was any good. Seems weird to just nominate it on that alone. Nobody in the makeup department has ever been nominated, either. And usually if there’s a heavy hitter there, you can spot it. I don’t see it, so I’m taking the obvious ones and assuming that’s just a stray guild nomination.

Seems like a pretty easy one this year. Maybe Ferrari surprises out of nowhere (though that hasn’t happened in a decade, and it happened to a film that got Picture and Editing nominations), and maybe Society of the Snow sneaks on (possibly, but why assume it?). I think it’s just gonna be easy.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

First Alternate: Golda

Dark Horse: Society of the Snow

Surprise: Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari

Shocker: Last Voyage of the Demeter

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would love to see: They’ll get the two they need. That’s enough.

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Visual Effects.

Shortlist:

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Poor Things
Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire
Society of the Snow
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Yes, Oppenheimer should be here and its exclusion is really going to mess up everything about this category this year. But let’s get past it. We can only deal with what’s here and what’s possible. Hopefully they fix what is broken in the branch and things get better going forward.

This decade, only 3 films got nominated without a top VES nomination or BAFTA: Snow White and the Huntsman, Kubo (which was its own deal) and Love and Monsters. Between VES and BAFTA, it’s not difficult.

Precursors:

• The Creator — BAFTA, VES* x7, BFCA
• Guardians 3 — BAFTA, VES* x5, BFCA
• Mission Impossible — BAFTA, VES, BFCA
• Napoleon — BAFTA, VES* x2
• Poor Things — BAFTA, BFCA
• Spider-Verse — VES* x7, BFCA
• Indiana Jones — VES* x2
• Society of the Snow — VES* x2
• Godzilla Minus One — VES
• Rebel Moon — N/A

The Creator and Guardians are nominated across the board, and solidly. I see no reason why they wouldn’t be on. Then, Mission Impossible is an effects fest and got BAFTA (which the franchise has never gotten before). I think that means it gets on. So that’s three.

Otherwise, don’t guess Rebel Moon without a precursor. Indy, despite the barebones criteria for making it, feels very unlikely and I feel like you just need to let that one happen. Society of the Snow has what I’d want to see, like Indy, but also feels unlikely. Godzilla… normally I’d say toss it, but apparently they only submitted it for the one category it was nominated for at VES. Not that it excuses missing BAFTA (but maybe they didn’t submit it there either). With the love I know is out there for that film and the shortlist being what it is, I wonder if it’s legitimately in contention. Spider-Verse is looking to become only the third animated film ever to be nominated here (after Kubo and Nightmare Before Christmas). It has loads of precursors (*in the VES animated categories), but is missing BAFTA. But so was Kubo. I think it’s as in contention as everything else.

Now we have to talk about the big fish: Napoleon and Poor Things. The thing about those isn’t so much the effects, but rather their stature. It’s a standard rule that the highest profile/closest to Best Picture/most nominated/classiest film wins this category (unless there are multiple nominated). If Napoleon or Poor Things gets on, they immediately dwarf the rest of the category, regardless of the quality of the effects everywhere else. Which tells me that they’re actually more likely to not get nominated. Especially Poor Things. I know it has a BAFTA nomination, but it’s a hometown film there. VES left it off entirely. So that tells me it’s unlikely to actually make it on. Napoleon — maybe. VES and BAFTA, I can see that.

Personally, my gut says the last two spots are between Napoleon, Spider-Verse, Godzilla and Society of the Snow. I feel like I don’t want to guess Society of the Snow. I do feel like I want to guess Godzilla. And, between Napoleon and Spider-Verse… fuck it, let’s guess history. Napoleon is more likely, but what the hell. Gotta have fun with it, otherwise what’s the point? I’ll take a 3/5 here. They’ve already fucked this up by leaving Oppenheimer off, so let’s guess the most fun category possible.

Best Visual Effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

First Alternate: Napoleon

Dark Horse: Society of the Snow

Surprise: Poor Things, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Shocker: Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire

Would love to see: Godzilla get nominated, just because it’s fucking Godzilla. Also, if Mission: Impossible isn’t nominated, it’ll be a fucking travesty.

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Sound.

Shortlist:

Barbie
The Creator
Ferrari
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Since 2000, only 1 movie has been nominated for Sound without a precursor, and it was a Hobbit movie. And that was before both shortlists and a singular category. It’s gotten pretty obvious lately. You’ll be fine.

Precursors:

• Oppenheimer — BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (D+ADR, FX+F, Music)
• Maestro — BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (D+ADR, Music)
• Ferrari — BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (FX+F)
• Zone of Interest — BAFTA, MPSE (Foreign)
• Barbie — CAS, MPSE (D+ADR, Music)
• Killers of the Flower Moon — CAS, MPSE (D+ADR)
• Mission Impossible — BAFTA
• Napoleon — MPSE (D+ADR, FX+F)
• The Killer — MPSE (FX+F)
• The Creator — N/A

The Creator. No precursors. Not happening. The Killer, one measly precursor. Not happening. Napoleon — one precursor (twice, admittedly), but missed BAFTA. Can’t guess it on just MPSE alone. Maybe it happens, but I can’t guess it. Mission Impossible got BAFTA, but missed the other two, which is hugely suspect. Can’t guess that (as cool as it would be). And now, before I even start, we’re down to 6.

Oppenheimer, Maestro and Ferrari hit everything. Guess them. They all exemplify this category. Zone of Interest, with BAFTA, I think sneaks on there too. That makes too much sense (and even snuck on an MPSE foreign nomination too, which only bolsters my confidence in it). And Killers of the Flower Moon — do you really want to go against Marty in favor of Barbie (which isn’t really a sound fest)? I don’t think so. I think that’s your five. And personally I think Napoleon would be more likely than Barbie to get nominated (even though it’s about even there). I think the five I pick are gonna be the five. Otherwise, you know what the alternates are.

Best Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

First Alternate: Napoleon

Dark Horse: Barbie

Surprise: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Shocker: The Killer, The Creator

Would love to see: The Killer get nominated

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Animated Feature.

Eligibles List:

The Amazing Maurice
Blue Giant
The Boy and the Heron
Chang’an
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Deep Sea
Elemental
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia
The First Slam Dunk
The Inventor
Leo
Lonely Castle in the Mirror
The Magician’s Elephant
Migration
Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Movie
The Monkey King
My Love Affair with Marriage
Nimona
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
The Peasants
Perlimps
Robot Dreams
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Suzume
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
They Shot the Piano Player
Titina
Trolls Band Together
Unicorn Wars
Warrior King
Wish

Only 4 films have ever been nominated (and only 1 since 2004) that scored below 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (and one was at 69%). Only 2 films have ever been nominated without a significant precursor, both happening before the PGA. Only 1 nominee ever (Ferdinand) has only been nominated by the PGA. None of these stats apply this year, since we’ve got a glut of good films at the top. But their tendencies are so obvious it feels pretty clear what this category is gonna be.

Precursors:

• The Boy and the Heron — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes (won), Annies x7*
• Elemental — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes, Annies x6
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — PGA, BAFTA, BFCA (won), Globes, Annies x7*
• TMNT: Mutant Mayhem — PGA, BFCA, Annies x6*
• Super Mario Bros. Movie — PGA, Annies x1
• Chicken Run — BAFTA, Annies x2
• Nimona — BFCA, Annies x9*
• Suzume — Annies x7*
• Robot Dreams — Annies x5^
• Ernest & Celestine — Annies x1^
• The Inventor — Annies x1^
• The Peasants — Annies x1
• Ruby Gillman — Annies x1
• Leo — Annies x1
• Migration — Annies x1
• Wish — BFCA

Miyazaki is on, I think we understand that. Spider-Verse is on. I think we understand that. Elemental is Pixar, got great reviews and was nominated everywhere. That’s 3. Oh, and Chicken Run — it’s Aardman. And they love nominating Aardman. Just let them leave that off if they’re gonna (and it would be unlike them to leave it off). That’s 4 and all we need to do is pick #5.

Most of the films remaining don’t have significant precursors and you can toss them off and just let them make it if they’re gonna. The films left with actual precursors are Nimona, Ninja Turtles, Robot Dreams, Super Mario Bros. and Suzume. Robot Dreams got a bunch of Annie nominations, but I worry there are too many high profile studio films for it to get enough votes (especially with voting expanded to everyone and not just the animators). I say let them do it. Super Mario Bros has that shiny PGA but was shut out everywhere else. And even with more precursors I’d tell you there’s no chance for it. Don’t be fooled, it’s not happening. Suzume is very unlike them. Mirai is the only non-Ghibli anime to get nominated (they also ignored Your Name by this same director). Love the precursor show out, but we’re not yet at a place where we can assume this gets on (plus, Miyazaki is already getting on this list. Two anime films in one year? In this economy?!).

There’s really only two films that have everything I want to see — Ninja Turtles and Nimona. Ninja Turtles hit PGA, hit BFCA and got a bunch of Annie noms. That’s the total package. The only thing I hesitate with there is that I worry the old guard of voters will see the title and immediately dismiss it. I’ve done this enough to know to not get my hopes up there (as much as I’d love to see it happen). Which leaves me with Nimona. I’m not worried about it missing PGA, because the five PGA spots all made sense for what they value as a group. It got more Annie nominations than Ninja Turtles and the critics nominated it. So it’s out there and people know about it and think it’s a good film. Plus, being original — I think that’s your fifth spot. Either one would be a good choice, but I think Nimona is the more likely of the two.

The hard part with this one isn’t the category, it’s gonna be having to pick a winner.

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

First Alternate: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Dark Horse: Suzume

Surprise: Ruby Gilman Teenage Kraken, Wish

Shocker: Robot Dreams, My Love Affair with Marriage, The Peasants

Don’t Guess: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Would love to see: Ninja Turtles get nominated (Suzume would be fun, too)

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International Feature.

Shortlist:

20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Amerikatsi (Armenia)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Four Daughters (Tunisia)
Godland (Iceland)
Io Capitano (Italy)
The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Perfect Days (Japan)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
Totem (Mexico)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

There’s no real strategy for this category. Recently the winner has been pretty obvious and you generally know from word of mouth and precursors at least three of the major contenders. The rest you just sort of pick up from experience, seeing how they vote, and sort of knowing how certain countries generally do. We’ll work through it.

I won’t post my entire list of how each shortlisted country has done, but I will reference it when necessary.

Precursors:

• The Zone of Interest — NBR, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes, Indie Spirit
• Society of the Snow — BAFTA, BFCA
• Fallen Leaves — NBR, Globes
• 20 Days in Mariupol — BAFTA
• Totem — NBR, Indie Spirit
• Perfect Days — BFCA
• The Taste of Things — BFCA
• The Teacher’s Lounge — NBR
• Godland — Indie Spirit
• Io Capitano — Indie Spirit

What an interesting year. THREE documentaries, three high profile films from known directors (that have zero real traction) and a guaranteed winner. So, you got one already. That’s a good start. But, for everything else… we’ll have to talk.

I have to admit that I’ve only seen 6 of the films here. So a lot of this is being done blind. Usually if I can see the films, I have a better idea of how people will likely respond to them. But, based on what I’ve seen thus far, I find that my initial sight-unseen placements haven’t changed. So I think I’m still in a good spot.

Let’s start with the films I expect to have no chance at this at all. First, Amerikatsi. There’s a lot of English in the film, and it’s kind of a comedy-drama, not quite in the vein of Life is Beautiful but enough that I question how people are going to feel about it. I think that’s one you don’t guess and let them surprise you and nominate it. Next, Godland. Looks great, but not the kind of film I see them usually flock to. Some may be reminded of the Herzog films with Klaus Kinski, but my overall feeling is that this is not something the branch usually votes for. Plus, Iceland has only 1 nomination ever in 44 submissions. Next, Totem. Good film, but short, somewhat slight (for them) and Mexico as a country has not fared well in this category outside of the Cuaron/Del Toro/Inarritu triumvirate. They’ve been shortlisted 8 times since 2006, but their only nominations were from those three filmmakers. I’ve learned to leave Mexico off my list because they just don’t nominate it. So those are the three I’d tell you not to guess. No one knows anything in this category, but those three I feel are the most likely to not get nominated.

Next, we’ll look at the films that I also don’t really expect to get nominated but also are ones I feel theoretically could. First, Society of the Snow. Yes, Bayona, yes, high profile film shortlisted in other categories. But it doesn’t feel like something they’d nominate in this category. Plus Spain, while a historical powerhouse in this category, they’ve only been nominated once since 2006, and it was for Pedro Almodovar (and even that took a few tries). It feels like a red herring to me. Next, The Mother of All Lies. A documentary. And we’ve got three of them on the shortlist. I feel like this one is less likely to get on, just because the other two documentaries are shortlisted in Documentary as well and this isn’t. Maybe they’ll vote for it, but I also can’t see multiple documentaries getting on the International Feature shortlist. That would really surprise me. Also, it should at least be floated — Morocco’s never been nominated in 19 submissions (though this is their third shortlist, and two in a row for them). I don’t see it, but it is possible. Next, Io Capitano. It’s Matteo Garrone, who has made things people know about (Gomorrah, Tale of Tales, Pinocchio), but has never been nominated or shortlisted. Italy is another country with a rich history in this category, but they’ve only got two nominations since 2006, both for Paolo Sorrentino films. They’re starting to be one of those countries (like France, who we’ll get to) who is always gonna be on the shortlist, but most of the time they’re not gonna get nominated (and you can usually spot when that is). So that’s the tier of “I don’t think it’s happening, but I guess it could.”

Next tier — firmly in contention, could easily make it, I just am not gonna guess them for one reason or another. Starting with The Taste of Things. France is a mainstay on the shortlist and everyone assumes they’re gonna get nominated every year because they’re France. They’ve been shortlisted 8 times since 2006, and have 4 nominations to show for it. So it’s half the time for them. And all four were high profile nominees. This one may be in that class, since I have heard people talking about it. But it seems like one of those ‘nice’, audience pleasers more than something that’ll get nominated. But maybe. I’d know better if I was able to see it. Next is The Teacher’s Lounge. This is another one — Germany. A country that always feels in contention, but you have to caution yourself from realizing that they aren’t automatically going to get nominated every time. They’ve been shortlisted 12 times since 2006 with 6 nominations. Like France, they’re running 50%. But again, their nominations have been for high profile films (and they’ve had some high profile films not get nominated too). The film doesn’t really have noticeable momentum, and I think the shininess of the country will make people think it has more of a shot than it might otherwise.

That leaves six films that I think are in contention here. Two of them are the documentaries. 20 Days in Mariupol and Four Daughters. In recent years, we’ve had documentaries nominated for International Feature (Honeyland, Collective and Flee). They were also nominated in Documentary Feature. However, there were also documentaries (like The Mole Agent) that were nominated in one category and not the other. We’ve never had more than one documentary be nominated in this category. And, having seen 20 Days in Mariupol, my gut says it’s likely not going to get nominated here (but will be nominated in Documentary Feature). Four Daughters, which I have yet to see, feels like something more likely to be nominated here. So if I’m guessing anything in the way of documentaries, that’s the one I’m guessing.

Next is Fallen Leaves, a very nice little unassuming romance from Finland. Nominated at the Globes (and for Actress, which I imagine got a few eyeballs on it), which is helpful. Having seen the film, it feels a bit like Compartment No. 6 from a few years ago, which was also nice and unassuming… and then wasn’t nominated in the end. Finland only has one nomination in 35 submissions. I’ve got some concerns there.

Next is Denmark. Another mainstay on the level of France and Germany. Also possibly a red herring. However, this is from Nikolaj Arcel, previous nominee for A Foreign Affair, starring Mads Mikkelsen (who’s been in a number of nominees over the years, most recently Another Round). Denmark has been nominated from 8 of their 11 shortlists, and has 7 nominations since 2010. As far as red herrings go, this is one I feel okay taking.

Next is Bhutan. Previously nominated for Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, a film that I assumed would make it on because it was only their second submission and those types of films always get nominated. But the film was actually quite good and was worthy of the nomination. I’ve not seen The Monk and the Gun, so it’s possible it won’t make it on in the end, but it feels like something they’d likely nominate.

Next, Japan. Actually a Wim Wenders film, which is interesting. But the film I’ve heard has a lot of love from those who’ve seen it, and it feels like something that would get nominated. Japan’s had four shortlists since 2006 and has been nominated 3/4 times. I feel good about their chances.

And finally, The Zone of Interest. Which is the film that’s gonna make this category so easy once it’s announced, because we all know it’s gonna win. And hey, at least you have one film to feel good about.

So, what’s the summary of all that nonsense? Basically, I’ve got no clue what’s gonna happen. But I do feel confident Amerikatsi, Godland and Totem won’t get nominated. I know Zone of Interest will. That’s about all I know for certain. I feel like Society of the Snow is a red herring and not likely to make it, and I’d rather be wrong not guessing it than guessing it. With three documentaries, I feel like only one gets on, if that, and for that my money is on Four Daughters. So I’ll guess that since, statistically, one of the nominees is probably gonna be a documentary. I think Io Capitano is another red herring as well. So, with that, since I’m not sure Taste of Things, Teachers Lounge and Fallen Leaves are gonna get nominated, that means my guess list is Monk and the Gun, Perfect Days and Promised Land. And so that’s what I’m going with. Maybe I’ll get 1/5. I don’t know. You never really know. All you can do is feel okay about your guesses, which I do. I’m hoping for the best.

Best International Feature

Four Daughters (Tunisia)

The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

Perfect Days (Japan)

The Promised Land (Denmark)

The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

First Alternate: Fallen Leaves (Finland)

Dark Horse: 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Surprise: The Taste of Things (France); The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)

Shocker: Io Capitano (Italy); Society of the Snow (Spain); The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)

Don’t Guess: Amerikatsi (Armenia); Godland (Iceland); Totem (Mexico)

Would love to see: 

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Documentary Feature.

Shortlist:

20 Days in Mariupol
32 Sounds
American Symphony
Apolonia, Apolonia
Beyond Utopia
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
In the Rearview
Stamped from the Beginning
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
A Still Small Voice
To Kill a Tiger

There is no method to this category. Look at the precursors, look at what’s been nominated in recent years/what they usually go for and hope for the best.

Precursors:

• 20 Days in Mariupol – PGA, BAFTA, NBR, BFCA x5 (won 2), IDA Cinematography Special Mention
• American Symphony – PGA, BAFTA, BFCA x6 (won 2)
• Apolonia Apolonia – IDA x3
• Beyond Utopia – PGA, BAFTA, BFCA x4
• Bobi Wine – BFCA x2, IDA x1 (won Best Doc)
• Desperate Souls – N/A
• Eternal Memory – NBR, BFCA x2, IDA x1 (won Editing)
• Four Daughters – Indie Spirit, IDA x1 (won Writing)
• Going to Mars – Indie Spirit, IDA x2
• In the Rearview – IDA x1
• Stamped from the Beginning – BFCA x2
• Still – PGA, BAFTA, NBR, BFCA x5 (won 5*)
• A Still Small Voice – NBR
• 32 Sounds – NBR, BFCA x2
• To Kill a Tiger – IDA x2

This year is so interesting, because the crux of the list are the two mainstream nominees, which quite honestly don’t fit with how they usually vote. This branch is notorious for leaving the mainstream nominees off. Life Itself, Won’t You Be My Neighbor — they do this all the time. If it’s not music, they don’t give a fuck.

We’ll start, though, with the two docs shortlisted on the International Feature shortlist too, 20 Days in Mariupol and Four Daughters. When they’re shortlisted in two places, you have to guess them here. Maybe they don’t both get on International Feature, but here you have to guess them. When there’s that much support out there, this one’s probably gonna happen. So that’s two automatic.

Next, let’s eliminate some of the ones I feel confident won’t be nominated. First, Desperate Souls, the Midnight Cowboy documentary. Weird inclusion, for one, and also the only doc with zero precursors. Everything about that doc screams ‘never gonna be nominated’. Don’t guess it, just let it get on. Also, having seen Stamped from the Beginning… it feels like an HBO documentary. Which is to say… it doesn’t have the gravitas and the filmmaking power that the docs they normally nominate have, and I think that hurts it in the end. Same for Going to Mars. It’s good, but I just don’t know if they see enough there to nominate it, based on how I’ve seen them vote in the past. In the Rearview… we’re almost two years into this Ukraine war. I don’t know if they still care the way they did two years ago. I know that sounds crass, but that’s how this branch votes. And so, if there’s gonna be a Ukraine documentary on, it’s gonna be 20 Days in Mariupol. Also, Apolonia — interesting doc… not sure why they’d care enough to nominate it. They’re not discovering some forgotten artist like Vivian Maier or Sugar Man. Just let them go there if they’re gonna.

Next — based on what I can see, I feel pretty confident Beyond Utopia is gonna be nominated. It’s a great and compelling doc, it’s an evergreen news story and it’s got precursors out the wazoo. I say guess it. Which gets you to three. Still holding on the two mainstream ones.

A Still Small Voice, while I’ve not seen it… religion is not really their cup of tea. Unless it’s about the hypocrisy of the church, and even then those have been shortlisted in recent years and not gotten nominated. Not sure why they’re gonna give a shit, so, sight unseen, I’m saying it doesn’t get on and will see what the liked about it after they nominate it. (Also, one measly precursor. Not the best for trying to make an argument for it.) Next let’s talk about 32 Sounds. It sounds amazing and it sounds like an incredible viewing experience. However, I’m not sure everyone will have seen it the way it’s meant to be seen, and the subject matter is not the type that normally gets nominated. I’m very leery about this one’s chances, as much as I’d like to see it happen. I’d rather be pleasantly surprised then disappointed knowing it never really had a chance. That’s two more gone. We’re almost there.

Next is Eternal Memory. Directed by the same person who made The Mole Agent (which they loved), it’s a very sweet documentary that will evoke a lot of feelings by those who watch it (and they love a doc that could be a movie. This is the less-sad version of something like Amour. While I could see them leaving it off in favor of a more ‘important’ subject, I’m gonna guess it. This feels up their alley. And now, if you’re paying attention, you’ll see that I’ve already gotten to four and there’s still the two major names left. I’m aware.

Two more left and then we’ll get to them. First, Bobi Wine. It’s on Disney+, which is interesting to me. It’s not a Disney documentary, but that at least tells me it’s out there and is at least some kind of a crowd-pleaser. I haven’t seen it, so I don’t know what its chances are. It’s got a decent amount of precursors but nothing crazy. My gut tells me it’s a high profile film that’s most likely going to become an also-ran. And now finally, To Kill a Tiger. A great documentary, really compelling, and has a great message behind it. The lack of precursors is concerning, and I can very much see this as something that won’t make it on. But, I do think if people watch it a lot will like it. I would normally, just from watching stuff, likely have that on my list.

Okay, now let’s get to the big two: American Symphony and Still. Still is the one that everyone loves, it’s got every precursor you’d want to see… and it’s also firmly in the vein of stuff like Won’t You Be My Neighbor and feels prime to be left off. To the point where I don’t even want to guess it because it’s actually more likely that they’re gonna leave it off than it’ll be nominated. So I’m gonna not guess it and just let them nominate it. The branch has to prove they’re gonna go this way before I can guess it. And then, finally… American Symphony. This one… narratively… it’s not something they give a shit about. The only reason I’d be guessing it is because it’s high profile, was produced by Obama’s company, has a lot of money and publicity behind it and Batiste is a known entity who’s already an Oscar winner. But otherwise, nothing about it feels like something they’d nominate.

All this is to say — I’m not guessing the obvious two. I’m just gonna let them put either on. I feel like American Symphony is more likely than Still, but I also feel like, knowing this branch, they’re more likely to reject both of them. And in that case, I’ll put To Kill a Tiger as my fifth choice, since I’m not going 5/5 anyway, and I’m more likely going 2/5 and am gonna be way wrong on this. But you gotta vote how you feel. And that’s what I feel.

Best Documentary Feature

20 Days in Mariupol

Beyond Utopia

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

First Alternate: Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Dark Horse: American Symphony

Surprise: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, A Still Small Voice

Shocker: Apolonia Apolonia, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, 32 Sounds

Don’t Guess: Desperate Souls Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, In the Rearview, Stamped from the Beginning

Would love to see: I’d honestly love to be right about the obvious two. But also, To Kill a Tiger and Beyond Utopia are great and I hope both make it on. I also would legitimately love to see 32 Sounds (like, just watch it), because it sounds great.

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Documentary Short.

Shortlist:

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Bear
Between Earth & Sky
Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
Camp Courage
Deciding Vote
How We Get Free
If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Last Song from Kabul
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Oasis
Wings of Dust

Precursors aren’t really a thing here, but the BFCA Doc awards nominated ABCs of Book Burning, Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between Between, The Last Repair Shop (which won) and Last Song from Kabul, and the IDA Doc Awards nominated Nai Nai & Wai Po. So that’s a quarter of the list and theoretically you could just pick all five of those if you wanted and make that your category.

Mostly my way of doing this is watching as many as I can, seeing which ones stand out and then looking at the issues. Typically you sort of know what they go for (issues of the moment, ‘people in tough situations overcoming those situations to create art or be inspiring’, stuff produced by people they like) and can usually reason your way into doing pretty well here.

I’ve seen 11/15 here, so I feel pretty confident about most of these.

Two of the ones I have not seen are Bear and Black Girls Play, and knowing this branch I feel pretty confident neither of those will be nominated. So those two are off for me. I also feel like Island in Between is not substantial enough for them and that one won’t be nominated either. Same for Oasis. It’s fine, but they like issues or something that makes them feel. Not sure that does either.

Wings of Dust — there’s an issue there and it could easily be nominated. I’m just not feeling it. Between Earth and Sky — looks nice and all, but I’m not sure why they’d care. Another one I’m just gonna let them nominate.

Going from the other end — Nai Nai and Wai Po — haven’t seen it, but I hear it’s a crowd pleaser, so I’m guessing that one to go on. That feels almost like a winner to me. I’m also gonna put, sight unseen, The ABCs of Book Banning on, since I do think that is an issue that they’re gonna want to nominate (because, as we know, the Academy loves to ‘fix’ issues by voting for them in this category, even though viewers don’t watch any of these documentaries and don’t really care).

The Barber of Little Rock — great idea. Feels like something they’d like. But watching it, I worry that it looks too staged. Maybe that’s just me and they won’t care and they’ll nominate it. But that’s how I felt watching it, and it concerned me. It felt like something that knew what it was, and not in a good way. On the other hand, How We Get Free — very nice story as well. Same deal. Racial and social inequality. Uplifting, great central figure. I can see that one getting nominated more so. Camp Courage — uplifting and nice and all… not sure if they’re gonna go for it. The ‘issue’ is not necessarily front and center. It’s there (girl lost her parents and her leg in a bombing), but it’s kinda light for them. But it could easily make it on. Deciding Vote — that’s a big issue for them. Politician standing up for what’s right and helping pass an abortion bill at the expense of his political career. That’s an important story to put out there in today’s world and I think they’re gonna nominate that.

If Dreams Were Lightning… it’s Ramin Bahrani, which makes me wonder if it’s shortlisted purely because of that. (He’s the director of The White Tiger and 99 Homes and Goodbye Solo and Man Push Cart and Chop Shop.) The doc is mostly just people talking about all the shit they don’t get with health insurance and how much they’re struggling. There’s no real uplift there and mostly it’s people talking about how shitty they have it because of how fucked the country is. I’m not sure that’s the right angle for a group of people who have some of the best unions and health insurance in the country. Just saying. I’m leery about that one’s chances.

The Last Repair Shop — it’s light in the kind of way they like, because it’s about the death of music in schools, ultimately. We follow the craftspeople who fix these instruments, and it’s very interesting. But at its core it’s about the death of art. And they love that shit. Also directed by Kris Bowers and Ben Proudfoot, both previously nominated for A Concerto Is a Conversation. You’re not gonna catch me without this on my list.

And finally, Last Song from Kabul. This is the exact kind of short this category was built on. Orphaned girls whose music school was closed when the Taliban took over who escape their circumstances and overcome it all to create music. Just… chef’s kiss. Them not nominating this is like if Maestro got shut out. You’d wonder what voting body this was, because it sure wouldn’t sound like the Academy I know.

All that is to say, these are my five, and I feel pretty good about them, even though this category is such a crapshoot I could go 1/5 and somehow it would make total sense, because none of this makes sense.

Best Documentary Short

The ABCs of Book Banning

Deciding Vote

The Last Repair Shop

Nai Nai & Wai Po

Last Song from Kabul

First Alternate: Camp Courage

Dark Horse: How We Get Free

Surprise: The Barber of Little Rock, If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis

Shocker: Between Earth & Sky, Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games, Wings of Dust

Don’t Guess: Bear, Island in Between, Oasis

Would love to see: Deciding Vote get nominated.

 

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Live Action Short.

Shortlist:

The After
The Anne Frank Gift Shop
An Avocado Pit
Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Dead Cat
Good Boy
Invincible
Invisible Border
Knight of Fortune
The One Note Man
Red, White and Blue
The Shepherd
Strange Way of Life
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Yellow

There’s never any help here. You pretty much just have to wing it, see as many as you can and use your instincts based on how they usually vote to guess what they’re gonna do. (Yellow was nominated at BAFTA.)

I’ve seen 13/15, so I feel like I’m in pretty good shape on this one. The two I haven’t seen are Dead Cat and Good Boy.

Based on what I’ve seen — you gotta deal with Wes Anderson and Pedro Almodovar first. Almodovar had a shortlisted short a few years ago and wasn’t nominated, and the short itself isn’t really anything to write home about, so I’m not sure why you’d guess it outside of the fact that it’s Pedro Almodovar. And then… Anderson… the short is good, but I don’t know. Are they just gonna nominate it because it’s him? Because they’ve also snubbed him a lot lately. I feel like that might be a red herring and I think I’m gonna not guess it and see if they go there. Because my instincts tell me they’re gonna deliberately not vote for it. They have that kind of mindset here. Think of this category like a South Boston family and the Wes Anderson short like that one family member who went to college and is coming back for the holidays. “Oh, you think you’re too fuckin’ good for us with your college words?!” I don’t know, I’m just sensing rejection there. Let’s see.

Past that — The Shepherd is Disney, lotta money went into it, it’s a nice little short. I have a tough time thinking it’ll get nominated just because it does sort of go against what this branch has been all about. But I could also see it nominated. I’m clearly not on the cynical voting tract this year, so I don’t see a need to guess it. I’m just gonna let it get on. Also, Red White and Blue — it’s another abortion short. Very powerful, as they often are. But they never fucking nominate these. I can’t assume it’s gonna get on when these never get on. This one’s got a turn that really hits hard, but again, I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than yet again disappointed with their continual lack of nominating shorts like this.

Invincible — solid short, probably something they’re gonna nominate (there’s always one I dismiss that they then go and nominate), but I just feel no on that so I’m leaving it off my list.  Dead Cat — didn’t see it, it sounds like a comic short with a punchline at the end. It could make it, but I don’t know, so I’m leaving it off and seeing what they do. Same for Good Boy. Seems like something they could nominate, but not knowing anything, let’s just let it get on. The One Note Man is very much one of those shorts made to be nominated by this branch. Normally I’d automatically guess it, but I’m not feeling cynical this year, so I’m not. I’ll just be wrong when they guess it (but it’s very much the type of short you think of this branch nominating).

An Avocado Pit is a nice little short. I actually could really see it getting nominated. It’s a nice little short with nice undertones of understanding. I’m worried the ending isn’t satisfying enough for some people, but it’s very much the type of short that can easily make it on. Yellow I quite loved. I love the message, I love the subtlety of the relationship between the main characters. I do feel the short might not have enough meat on the bones for some people and I’m worried it’ll be left off because of that. I think it deserves to be nominated but would feel bad seeing it not make it after guessing it, so I’m gonna leave it off and hope to be wrong.

The After is a Netflix short, and it just feels like a lot of money went into it. It feels like the kind of thing they’d normally ignore, but there’s a lot of those this year, so this one I do think they’ll probably include. The Anne Frank Gift Shop is the kind of comedic short I always feel is gonna get on. Some people might be really turned off by the subject matter though. I think it’s more of a satire on ‘content’ culture than anything, but I can also see them rejecting it outright. Knight of Fortune is the exact kind off weird and offbeat/funny short from Scandinavia that always seems to get on, so I’ll guess that. Invisible Border is the really intense short with a message that always seems to get on. And Bienvenidos a Los Angeles is one of the most emotional shorts on the shortlist, so I think they’re gonna respond to that one and nominate it.

It’s a total crapshoot, and 1/5 is always possible. So there’s really not much to say here past ‘this is what I think they’re gonna nominate’. I feel okay, having seen almost all of them, but you never quite know with this category.

Best Live Action Short

The After

The Anne Frank Gift Shop

Bienvenidos a Los Angeles

Invisible Border

Knight of Fortune

First Alternate: An Avocado Pit

Dark Horse: Yellow

Surprise: Good Boy, The One Note Man

Shocker: The Shepherd, Strange Way of Life, The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar

Don’t Guess: Dead Cat, Red White and Blue, Invincible

Would love to see:

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Animated Short.

Shortlist:

Boom
Eeva
Humo (Smoke)
I’m Hip
A Kind of Testament
Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Once upon a Studio
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Pete
27
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Wild Summon

In terms of precursors, Wild Summon was nominated at BAFTA and Humo and War Is Over were both nominated at the Annies, for what that’s worth. But otherwise it’s pretty much like the other Shorts categories, where you just sort of wing it by seeing as much as you can and go by how they usually vote.

I’ve seen 13/15 here (haven’t seen Humo or I’m Hip).

Since there’s not really a system for guessing this one, I’m just gonna talk my way through it.

Once Upon a Studio is the worst of Disney and is just a ‘celebration’ of the studio being 100 years old. So they’re just parading characters through. It’s a great short to put on a DVD as a special feature (or, back in the days of VHS’s, before the movie), but for an Oscar, it would really signify the branch losing whatever scruples it has (which it’s had a decent amount of in recent years). So I’m saying absolutely do not guess that. I feel like it’s on for respect and nothing else.

I’m Hip — I think it’s here because of respect they have for the animator. But it sounds like a music video, essentially, with a cat dancing to the titular song. I’m sure it’s colorful and fun, but it doesn’t feel like (sight unseen, admittedly) the kind of short this branch nominates nowadays.

Letter to a Pig is the type of short that could get on, but having seen it, I’m leery. I think it doesn’t. No real reason there other than a gut instinct. They’ve proven those instincts wrong before, but I feel strong not guessing that one. Dog Apartment is nice and weird, but probably feels too weird for them. That’s not the type of thing I’ve seen them nominate recently, so I don’t think that makes it on either. Pachyderme is the type of short that, again, could easily get on. But I just feel like it won’t. No real rhyme or reason there. A Kind of Testament — way too weird for them. I’d be so surprised if that got on over the other choices here. That would be so unlike them.

So already, we’re under 10. Which isn’t so bad. 27 I liked a lot, and I think there is room for them to nominate it. However, I’ve let my feelings for a short get me in trouble before. This is one of those where I feel like they’re more likely to not nominate it, and I’d rather be happily wrong than disappointedly wrong. Pete — socially conscious short. Nice story about a trans baseball player. But unfortunately not a whole lot of substance there (despite the very nice animation). They typically like something they can grab onto visually or something that lands emotionally. And this one, past the very nice message, doesn’t really do either. I think it gets left off.

Eeva is the quintessential short that I always don’t want to guess that always gets on. And since it’s a recurring theme that I don’t guess them and they get nominated, why ruin a good thing? War Is Over — it feels too simple. It looks great, and the story is nice and everything works (to the point where the Lennon needle drop at the end and the title almost hurt the overall product and feel totally unnecessary). I just don’t know if that’s enough for them. I feel like they reject things that are too obvious.

Otherwise — Boom is your standard cute, comedic short they always seem to find room for. Humo is from one of the animators of Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and they love a good artistic stop-motion entry. Ninety-Five Senses packs a bit of a punch and looks nice, and I think they’re gonna get that on. Our Uniform is the most unique and artistic entry I saw this year (the whole thing being animated from fabric). If they don’t nominate that on technique alone, it’ll be a crime. So I’m guessing that one for sure. And Wild Summon — it just looks so stunning, even though what it does might not work for some people. I think it’s wonderful and I think they’re gonna nominate it. Though it’s the exact type of short I fully expect them to leave off in favor of one of those I dismissed earlier. They always do that.

Again, you can never really predict this. So you just pick what makes you feel the best and hope for the best.

Best Animated Short

Boom

Humo (Smoke)

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Wild Summon

First Alternate: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Dark Horse: Eeva

Surprise: 27, Pete

Shocker: Letter to a Pig, I’m Hip, Pachyderme

Don’t Guess: A Kind of Testament, Koerkorter (Dog Apartment), Once Upon a Studio

Would love to see: I’m happy so long as Our Uniform and Wild Summon make it on.

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So that’s what I got. I came around to watch a good portion of the shortlist (that I had on hand, at least). I still feel like I’m behind and that I’m gonna do horribly. I don’t really much care how I do anymore. I take more joy in the process than the results. One year I hope to beat my best, but if I do worse than I’ve ever done, it’s really not gonna affect my all that much. And I like that I’m in that place. But, you know the drill — hoping to crack 80%, feel good with anything in the 75% range, think around 70% is standard, and anything hovering around the 67% range just under 70 feels like an ‘off’ year. I think it’ll be okay. I’ve done this enough that I should be fine. Though this one definitely felt a bit too simple at parts. Basically the same six movies getting all the tech categories. That feels like there’s something amiss there. Or maybe it’ll be that easy. Who knows.

Good luck to everyone else guessing nominations. Hopefully my nonsense has helped you all these years do better with your guesses. I’ll check in at some point tomorrow night when I can to talk about all the nominees and what happened and start looking toward guessing winners.

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