I’m sure I said the same thing last year, but I had no idea what to expect with this one. Last year I was in the middle of life chaos and all of a sudden it was like “time for awards season!” This year, no chaos, but all of a sudden it was December and January and these things were out and I had barely finished watching things from the year and had to scramble to get halfway caught up on the shorts and documentaries and foreign films (and even then, I’m not sure I got to halfway) and then, within the span of like, three weeks, find out where everything was at and find the time to throw together nominations guesses.
I posted my predictions article yesterday without having had the time to look over anything a second time, convinced I was gonna do horribly. I thought, “Okay, if I can go 68-70%, I can escape feeling okay.” Both fortunately and unfortunately for me, it’s been the same 10 films all over the ballot. Which is good, since it cuts down on having to think about random stuff getting on and makes you feel like you’ve got a baseline of doing okay. But it’s also bad bad because you can fall into the trap of accidentally guessing the same five films to get more nominations than is reasonably possible.
I saw the nominations, but I haven’t yet gone through and seen what the totals are for everything and looked at the big picture. And I bet, once I do, we’ll end up with everything largely in the range of getting a number of nominations that ‘make sense’ for them. And that’s mostly what I’m gonna be looking for here, since, by and large, there weren’t a lot of ‘oh WOW’ moments for me. A couple of snubs, a couple of ‘oh, okay, they nominated that’. But, to me, the only nomination or omission that moved the needle for me happened in Sound. So it seems like a pretty straightforward year and I’m sure I didn’t actually do as horrible as it felt like I did. As I say — there’s always a certain percentage of this that’s going to be unknowable chaos. You have to expect that. So anything within the chaos range is understandable.
Anyway, let’s take a look at what was nominated and what it all means going forward (and, most importantly, how I did in guessing everything).
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
By the time we got to this category (since they always announce this list last), I was 100% certain of what the ten films were that were gonna be called. There was no other alternative.
This is the first time ever I’ve gone 10/10 on Best Picture, and the first time ever the PGA has matched 10/10. They are, by the way, now, by themselves, 119/136 since the (re)expansion of the field in 2009. We’ve still also only ever had 4 total nominees that didn’t get a precursor.
With the thin field this year, there was really no other alternative. I struggled to find alternates here. Only 11 films got multiple precursors, and only 14 films got any precursors. Even then — nobody expected Air or May December to make any noise, given how they’ve performed throughout the season. Saltburn was your annual “yeah, maybe, if they turn out for it” film… that they didn’t end up turning out for. And The Color Purple was… it was there, and theoretically it could have gotten on, but mostly it was just the only alternate to the 10 and that’s why anyone took it seriously. Everyone seemed pretty happy with the 10, based on precursors (and everything else).
So we got the obvious list, and just about everyone guessing this should have gone 10/10. (The remaining four films with precursors ended up with a total of 2 nominations between them, by the way.) No snubs at all (from a precursor level). Not much really to talk about on that front.
As a category, historically this is a big deal, as two foreign films are nominated for Best Picture in the same year. Also now the fourth time we’ve had Martin Scorsese and Alexander Payne films on the same Picture list (we’ll talk about Director in a second). Otherwise, Barbenheimer remains the flagship of 2023, and it’s fitting to see them both here.
Looking ahead — at the moment, this all sure seems like Oppenheimer’s race to lose. We’ll see what the PGA and BAFTA do, but if Oppenheimer keeps stringing along wins, it’s gonna be tough to derail that train. Just looking at this from experience — Killers of the Flower Moon sure seems like it’s gonna follow The Irishman’s trajectory and likely be shut out (though I could see a few wins for it here and there, if the precursors align. Actress is in play, Score is in play, Cinematography is possible), so that doesn’t seem like a win contender. No one thinks Maestro is here for any reason other than respect for Bradley Cooper, so that’s out (and very likely gonna win nothing). Poor Things… the idea that would win Best Picture is insane to me and I’ll need to see major wins for me to entertain that possibility. Barbie isn’t happening. The Academy can nomiante all they want, but their assholes tighten right up when it comes time to actually voting. You’re gonna see a lot of ‘yeah, I loved it, but… not here. It got its flowers already’ situations, and then they put it 8th on their ballot. The Holdovers is really the only major competition at the moment, and I bet the Oppenheimer publicity team knows it, too. They’re in prime position to take this one all the way to the finish line without much stopping them.
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
So I did say there was a very strong possibility both foreign nominees would get on. I just figured it would be at the expense of Yorgos and not Alexander Payne. That was a minor surprise to me, just because this branch loves Alexander Payne (I thought this was a better effort than all three of his previous nominations, too). But alas, he got left off.
Sadly this also means that we won’t get 4/4 Scorsese vs. Payne categories (since we’ve already had Sideways/Aviator, Descendants/Hugo and Nebraska/Wolf of Wall Street). I was really liking that statistic.
But yeah, I had Payne on instead of Triet and went 4/5. But Triet was the clear First Alternate. And even if I had both on, I still would’ve guessed Payne instead of Yorgos, so I was going 4/5 no matter what. I’m fine with that.
Looking at the rest of this category, it was pretty clear Cooper never stood a real chance (the BAFTA nomination was the only thing making me keep the door open for him, otherwise I’d have considered a nomination for him to be a moderate, bordering on major, surprise, depending on who got left off). Greta Gerwid was never going to happen (and that should have been obvious to anyone who’s been following this branch’s nominees the past five years). It wasn’t just a ‘DGA never goes 5/5’ thing, it was a ‘they stray away from mainstream stuff’ thing. This branch embracing Barbie would have legitimately floored me.
Everything about this category fits with how this branch has been voting and really only emboldens me for next year to brazenly leave off the more mainstream ‘DGA’ type nominees in favor of the foreign choices with little precursor support. But, as we’re seeing, they’re starting to get support! Which I like (but also once again makes it harder for me to have anything smart to say. Because, once again, quite literally anyone can do this as well, if not better, than I can. The only thing I’ve got is experience, which only goes so far).
Looking at the big picture here — I don’t think Payne was a snub so much as he got squeezed for lack of space in a really tight race. Which you can tell, because The Holdovers got on Editing. If they left it off Editing, then you’d know there wasn’t significant support there. But I suspect this was a really tight race and he was really close to that fifth spot and ended up falling just shy. And you know, shit happens. It’s sad for him, but understandable. The other films all did really well. There’s no shame there, and certainly no malice either.
Otherwise — sure seems like Nolan’s race to lose. Glazer and Triet aren’t gonna be able to rack up enough precursors to sway too many more voters than they already have, and unless someone else wins the DGA, this seems like Nolan all the way. And even then, Marty is really the only one I could see making a play for it. But I’d need to see Marty win the DGA and then someone other than Nolan win BAFTA to really make it interesting. If Marty wins the DGA and Nolan wins BAFTA, then I’m thinking it’s 60/40 Nolan. But I think Nolan may sweep this. All of this is only further convincing me this is Oppenheimer in a runaway.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
The exact scenario I figured may happen happened. I couldn’t figure out who was gonna be left off between Domingo and Wright (since Cooper, Murphy and Giamatti were all locks), and I thought, “Well, they likely are both gonna get on and Leo will be left off.” But didn’t guess it (mostly because I didn’t want to be disappointed if Wright didn’t get nominated). And that’s what happened. Leo came up shy in the precursors, missing both SAG and BAFTA. I figured that was fine, since he’d missed SAG before, but apparently there was some divisiveness about the performance out there that I wasn’t aware of. In the end, we have Academy Award nominee Colman Domingo and Academy Award nominee Jeffrey Wright, and I am just fine with both of those things. I’m also thrilled about Giamatti finally getting a proper Best Actor nomination and Murphy getting his due as well. A lot of stuff to be happy about here. And Leo — he’s been nominated a lot and gotten one already, so he’s fine. This is a 4/5 I can get behind.
Otherwise — it was 6 for 5 for the category, and the First Alternate got on. No surprises at all, just a matter of logistics. There weren’t any other major contenders out there, either, so it was very straightforward.
Looking ahead, this race is between Giamatti and Murphy. Giamatti currently has the slight edge, having BFCA and the Globe to Murphy’s Globe win. But PGA and BAFTA are gonna tell the tale there. And if they split, then we’re really gonna have an interesting time picking a winner. I’m leaning slightly toward Giamatti at the moment, but it’s 51/49. That swings back the other way very quickly with a SAG win. Ultimately, I’m not upset with either winning here. So bring it on.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
We need to start with the obvious — Margot Robbie was left off. And that is surprising to me. Especially with Annette Bening getting on. That felt like an empty SAG nomination for sure. And yet… here we are. No idea how that one went down, but instead we got the lead actress of Barbie (and the most affecting performance in the film) getting left off for a performance that (no disrespect to Annette Bening) will be forgotten about within a year. But Margot Robbie was nominated as a producer for the film, so she’s at least got something (plus let’s not pretend like she didn’t have solid backend gross points on that movie too. So she can cry herself all the way to the bank).
I went 4/5 here (and I suspect most people went 4/5 here). This one seemed like an easy 5/5, but I guess the popularity contest of SAG came through for once here. I guess Netflix did an early marketing blast and that carried her through (because that is what happens. They pay a lot of money to get the Globes and BFCA nominations and then that conditions later voters on who the choices are and they just follow suit all the way through). Either way, neither Bening nor Margot were gonna contend here for the win, so the swap is not gonna affect anything going forward except how this category will look in the future to anyone revisiting it.
Looking ahead — with the possible exception of Huller making a run (which would be moderately surprising at best, given that we have two people at the top and not one, and requires a BAFTA win at minimum), this seems to be between Gladstone and Stone. Stone’s got two wins to one (exact situation of Giamatti and Murphy), but SAG and BAFTA are gonna tell that tale. I suspect Stone will win BAFTA and SAG is a tossup. But we’ll see. It’s between the two of them and I think, given the respective performances, this is a situation where either winner is gonna be okay by most of us. Stone’s got a win already, but that win didn’t feel like a proper win. This one will feel like an earned win. So I’ll still be happy for her. And all the acclaim Gladstone is getting, even if she doesn’t win in the end, she’s still gonna come out having won majorly. So I’m fine with either version of this one.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Yeah, that tracks. A couple of days ago, this category was my guess (because I saw the ‘Wright and Brown together’ scenario unfolding). But a combination of not actually guessing Wright and being too interested in seeing five consecutive years of two nominees from the same film happening in this category made me go off of it. Willem Dafoe didn’t really have the kind of precursors that made me feel totally confident there. So that’s not so surprising and leaves me at a very understandable 4/5. Brown was my Dark Horse, just because I decided to go all in on The Holdovers at the 11th hour and thought Dominic Sessa could sneak on. But they don’t usually go in for first-timers like that unless it’s very clearly one of those types of performances. Brown was the obvious alternate there. So nothing that makes me think anything weird happened. All within the realm of expectation.
Otherwise — De Niro, Downey and Gosling were stalwarts throughout the entire race, and Ruffalo not only has a notable and standout performance in a film nominated all over the place, but he’s also beloved. All of these people are beloved, actually. Brown gets his first nomination, which is amazing (justice for his performance in Waves!). Ruffalo’s on nomination #4 (all Supporting, by the way). De Niro’s on nomination #9 (only 8 are for acting) and now has nominations in five separate decades (and across six decades). Downey’s on nomination #3 (the two previous being Chaplin and Tropic Thunder. Talk about an eclectic mix). And Gosling’s on nomination #3 (his first in Supporting). It’s a good category, and we really only had about 6 or 7 people throughout with any kind of support, so we didn’t get anything insane. We got a version of what was expected.
Looking ahead — Downey’s got two wins already, and given the rest of the category (Gosling’s not winning and De Niro is just there to get the veteran appreciation)… this is Downey’s to lose at this point. Ruffalo can’t make up any more ground (he missed SAG and BAFTA) and Brown has to win SAG to be considered even halfway seriously. (and even if he wins, and Downey wins BAFTA, do we think he’s got a legitimate chance there?). Like with our next category, the early precursors might have put him too far ahead to be caught. (Plus, he’s so charming, gives great acceptance speeches, is coming back to ‘acting’ after being a movie star for 15 years and is reminding us all how goddamn good he is when he’s in a movie that actually challenges him. It’s a perfect story.)
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
The idea that Margot Robbie was not nominated for an Oscar and America Ferrera was is baffling to me. And it has nothing to do with the actual performances whatsoever. That’s not a knock on Ferrera at all. Because I did think her work was fine. I don’t really have a problem with the nomination at all. I do have a problem with the idea that she’s on and Margot Robbie is off. But whatever. That was a moderate surprise (but one we did all see as possible). And then, Jodie Foster getting on is only a surprise in the sense that finally those ’empty’ early precursors actually lead to a nomination. The film had no visible support anywhere else and somehow we got two acting nominations on from it. Crazy.
I did say throughout this race that something was weird about this category and I wasn’t sure where it was gonna go past the main three people. Blunt, Randolph and Brooks were mainstays, and given how weak the field was, were basically locks. But the remaining two spots — I couldn’t figure them. And usually when I can’t figure them, the answer is usually go foreign. It’s almost never go basic. But the Academy went basic this year.
Those two getting on means that some people moderately in contention were left off. First, Rosamund Pike. She’s not someone that gets nominated a bunch (just the one nomination for Gone Girl) and the film was a film that didn’t seem like it had a lot of spots to get nominated (and there were open questions about the response to it). It had a small, hardcore fan base, but unfortunately that fan base was not big enough to overcome the people who really didn’t care for it. It happens. She never felt like a great option (but neither did anyone else). The other person who was left off was Julianne Moore. Now, she is someone everyone likes a lot. Though, her film, like Saltburn, got a mixed response from people. I thought the performance might be enough to get her on as a respected veteran… not realizing that Jodie Foster is also a respected veteran. So, sure. It also meant Sandra Huller was left off for Zone of Interest. But they were already voting for her in Actress, and it’s hard enough to get them to nominate one foreign performance per year, so two from the same person… not a chance. I thought love for the film might carry her through (since you know the whole ‘need an acting nomination to contend for Picture’ thing), but she never really made a ton of sense. I just figured the performance was in classier territory than the rest so maybe it would be her. But her not getting on makes sense from a logistics standpoint.
Ultimately, we didn’t end up with the most interesting category, but I’m not sure there was ever going to be much of an interesting category here. so I’ll take the 3/5 and chalk it up to shit happens.
Either way, Da’Vine Joy Randolph already has this category on lock and no one’s gonna be upset about that. She’s great, she’s great in the film and no one else has any chance at catching up to her. I need to see Emily Blunt win out at this point to even consider her. Otherwise, this is a done deal.
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
This one was an easy 5/5. There were only 6 scripts that had precursors (since WGA hasn’t announced yet). And we already had a foreign entry on, so there wasn’t even another one to look for. So the question was simply, for the fifth spot: Air or May December. And given one actually had a shot at other categories, it was easy to figure out. It was possible Saltburn got on without anything, but I felt more people would be okay with May December than they would with Saltburn, which turned out to be a correct hunch. Past that — no surprises, and I’m curious how the WGA telegraphs this category after the fact (because they aren’t announcing nominations until like, Valentine’s Day). Or, shows that they would’ve made it more confusing, potentially.
Otherwise — I expect The Holdovers is an easy winner here, but Anatomy of a Fall has a shot at it. A legitimate shot at it. It’ll all depend on what BAFTA does (and if they go Barbie, like BFCA did, we’ll be up shit’s creek without a paddle). Either way, easy two horse race (with apologies to Past Lives).
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
This was a 4/5, but there were only 6 scripts. They left Killers of the Flower Moon off (which I had an inkling about, but wasn’t sure if they’d fully commit). A small surprise, but when you realize it’s because Zone of Interest got on, nothing shocking. It was a matter of space, and they were always gonna nominate a solid category.
Also, I should point out — the two categories Killers of the Flower Moon missed kept it from the “Big Five” — Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay. No film has managed to get nominated for all five since 2016, and only 8 films have managed it in the past 40 years. Just something I felt was worth mentioning.
I’m curious how this one turns out. Barbie is in a different pond than the one it’s been swimming in for the precursors. It’s Barbenheimer here, since the other three stand no real shot. I’m not sure I fully believe Nolan will Triple Crown, but right now it’s hard to bet against it. It’s all BAFTA at this point, since WGA won’t announce until a month after the Oscars.
Best Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Holdovers gets Editing (I knew that was gonna get on, too) and off Director. Weird how things work out sometimes. Zone of Interest is off but Anatomy of a Fall is on. Foreign inclusion, so I was up the right tree, just the wrong branch. I went 4/5 here, so I’m good.
This is Oppenheimer all the way and I don’t think anyone expects anything different there. Maybe they surprise and decide to give Thelma a fourth (pretty sure that would be four for her), but I’m thinking Oppenheimer’s the vote here.
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Another 4/5. I honestly wasn’t sure El Conde was gonna get enough votes to make it. But, snce the branch is the same as who votes for ASC (by and large), I’m not shocked. I thought it would be Zone of Interest and Lukasz Zal instead. No major issue there. El Conde was the clear First Alternate, since nothing else got precursors (or was visual enough to make me think they’d vote for it).
This is one of the categories where I’m curious what wins. I suspect it’s Killers of the Flower Moon or Oppenheimer. I want to see where the precursors go, because it could go either way. Oppenheimer is not a runaway here (and Poor Things, if it shows out, could also make a play for this).
I should also point out — show some love for the DPs — Ed Lachman, who shot El Conde, is a hugely respected cinematographer who’s been nominated twice before, for both Far from Heaven and Carol. A couple of other films he’s shot: Selena, The Limey, The Virgin Suicides and Erin Brockovich. Rodrigo Prieto, this is his fourth nomination, and his third for Marty’s films (Silence and The Irishman). His first nomination was for Brokeback Mountain. This is Hoyte’s second nomination, his first coming for Dunkirk (which he arguably should have won for), and if he does win, he’ll have for sure earned it. He also shot Interstellar for Nolan and also shot a couple of other movies you may have heard of: Let the Right One In, The Fighter, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Her, Spectre, Ad Astra and Nope. Matthew Libatique is also a hugely respected DP. His two previous nominations were for Black Swan and A Star Is Born. He’s also shot a lot of good movies. He’s more of a mainstream DP, who’s shot things like Requiem for a Dream, Josie and the Pussycats, Phone Booth, The Fountain (!!!), Iron Man (the first one), Straight Outta Compton and Don’t Worry Darling. And Poor Things — that’s Robbie Ryan. His only other nomination was for The Favourite, but he’s also shot things like Fish Tank, Philomena, American Honey, Marriage Story and also Medusa Deluxe this year, if anyone even saw that. Great DPs here.
Best Original Score
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I went 4/5 and it’s a miracle I didn’t go any lower, because I almost said ‘fuck it’ and guessed that they’d leave John Williams off. But leaving John Williams off in Score is like leaving Diane Warren off in Song (we’ll get to her in a minute). You know they’re just gonna do it. And they did. But, I decided to take a shot with Across the Spider-Verse (even though it didn’t really fit for them) for the fifth spot, thinking it was gonna be Zone of Interest if not that. But instead it’s American Fiction, which I never could’ve guessed (but am thrilled about). I loved that score and I think it absolutely deserves to be here, but I just figured they shortlisted it because a woman scored it and they have their quota to make sure at least one woman hits the shortlist. So I’m very happy to be wrong there. I didn’t expect it, and it’s a very nice surprise.
Otherwise — do we think anything other than Oppenheimer is winning this? I’m rooting for Robbie Robertson in the worst way, but I don’t know if I can see that happening. It’s gonna need BAFTA, since the other two precursors have already gone to Oppenheimer, and I think this is gonna be a clean sweep situation.
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside, from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For,” from Barbie
4/5. Not so surprising. In my chaotic guessing period where I wasn’t even thinking half the time I wrote stuff down, I forgot they have a 2 song maximum per film, so I had to quickly change my guess on the last spot about an hour before showtime.
But that meant I put “It Never Went Away” on, which worked out. Otherwise, I couldn’t guess they’d snub Kravitz (even though that’s exactly the type of thing they do). Still, I’ll take 4/5 all day.
In the end “Wahzhazhe” got on, and it means an indigenous songwriter got nominated, which is about as interesting a thing as they could have done in this category (save NOT FUCKING NOMINATING DIANE WARREN FOR MEDIOCRE SONGS AGAIN). So I’m very happy for them (and wanna see if they have the balls to let that be performed live).
In the end, this is “I’m Just Ken” vs. “What Was I Made For.” They split the precursors, and I suspect “I’m Just Ken” is the one more people will remember and vote for, but at that point, does it really matter? The same film is gonna win.
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Now we’re at the point in the ballot where most categories are gonna be a mix of the same five films. So for the most part, we should all have done well.
I went 4/5 here. I guessed Maestro in the fifth spot, but I’m not remotely shocked that got left off. Especially in favor of Napoleon (duh). The only reason Napoleon was even my Dark Horse is because Zone of Interest had more overt support across the rest of the ballot. But still, there were only the 7 choices here, so one versus another, it’s all good.
I suspect Barbie wins this in a landslide, and rightly so. Killers of the Flower Moon is the alternate here, I think. This doesn’t feel like an Oppenheimer situation to me. I think Barbie takes this down pretty easily.
Best Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
This was a 5/5. This one was very obvious, with zero surprises, and matches Production Design 5/5. Which, I wonder how often that’s ever happened (if ever). Feels very unlikely that’s ever happened more than once, if that.
But, looking at the precursors, these were the only five that got multiple, and past that you’re just kind of assuming Maestro gets on. So yeah, that was a pretty straightforward one.
For the win, Barbie is your overwhelming frontrunner (with, I think, Poor Things, as backup). But Barbie will win this, and I think we all understand that.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
They left off Killers of the Flower Moon (which, seeing where else they left it off, tracks). Golda gets on, unsurprisingly, and a foreign nominee with no precursors gets on. Fair. Those were my First Alternate and Dark Horse, so this is a reasonable 3/5. This is a category I tend to get wrong because I just lump the films with a lot of nominations in here, and this is one of the ones where they tend to get left off. If I had a minute to actually think big picture, I may have caught one of them. But maybe not. I was always gonna let them put Golda on, and I’m not sure what I’d have taken off in favor of Society of the Snow (maybe Napoleon). I don’t know. I’m fine with 3/5. Other years, this is the most obvious 5/5 on the board, so it all balances out.
In terms of what’s gonna win… no clue. Barbie has the only precursor so far. I suspect Maestro maybe has an edge? Oppenheimer feels unlikely to be sweep-voted here (but you never know). Poor Things would be cool, but I need to see precursors first. The guild and BAFTA are necessarily to guess this one. Right now, I’ll give Maestro the edge on the nose and the aging, but past that, I don’t know what’s gonna happen.
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
On the one hand, I can’t believe I got 4/5 here. On the other — what the fuck else were they gonna nominate? There was nothing interesting on the shortlist. They picked three of the best movies on it, put on Marvel (which is always on) and then tossed on Napoleon for shits and giggles. That does make sense though, Napoleon, give how much they had to extend for battle sequences and such.
I was pretty much always gonna go 4/5 here, because I guessed history in Spider-Verse, but that didn’t make logical sense as a choice. No one was treating that movie as that big a deal. Napoleon was my First Alternate and I even said it was the more likely nominee, so I knew what I was doing. That’s fine. I’ll always toss away one or two that I could have gotten right, but it balances out because I will also pull one or two out of my ass and get them right out of nowhere. So I’m fine with that.
In terms of the category — Godzilla gets on with almost no precursors, but somehow we saw that coming. Good for them. Very happy for that team. The Creator weirdly becomes the favorite here at the moment? Mission Impossible getting on is a big deal, the first time the franchise has ever made it on. Guardians is whatever. Marvel gets on, they never win, this is a recurring theme. Napoleon is the ‘classy’ film here, so I’m wondering if that’s the favorite just because of that alone. I don’t know. Tough call. The precursors aren’t gonna help us because Oppenheimer is gonna win them all. So we’re left with probably having to just take a shot with which film we think wins this. I’m gonna wait and see. Maybe VES or BAFTA will surprise us.
Best Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
I went 3/5 here. In part because the Oscars just fucking hate Michael Man, apparently. A complete shut out for Ferrari. Which, for a racing movie not to get on in Sound is nuts. And also partly because The Creator becomes the first film in a long time to get nominated without a precursor. The last time that happened in the past 20+ years was for a Hobbit movie (and only for a Hobbit movie). This is the first time it’s happened in the one category era (which admittedly is only on its fourth year), and is the shock of the ballot to me. Nothing else really made me that surprised (outside of maybe Margot). This is the one nomination that really made me go “What?” So yeah.
Killers of the Flower Moon being left off — fine. Mission Impossible getting on, nice little surprise, good for them, BAFTA had it. But BAFTA also had Ferrari, which got left off, and The Creator gets on out of nowhere. No fucking clue where that came from, but happy for them.
Oppenheimer wins this category in a landslide, by the way, so this is the most we’re gonna have to talk about it. It’s so straightforward the rest of the way that the most I’m gonna be doing with it is trying to figure out the rankings for the Scorecard ballot (Maestro 2, Zone of Interest 3? Maybe reverse?). It’s a non-entity going forward because it’s so obvious what’s gonna win.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4/5 for me. I knew Nimona would make it. Wasn’t sure they’d go in on Robot Dreams, given the stacked category, but I did see it as at least a possibility after that Annies showing. I didn’t think they’d be able to pass up Chicken Run. They fucking love Aardman. I wasn’t overly partial to the film, so I’m fine with the omission (and am very interested in seeing Robot Dreams). Looking at the other possibilities — I never bought Ninja Turtles as something they’d actually nominate. Suzume… they don’t nominate anime films outside of Miyazaki. It’s been Mirai and that’s it. Ruby Gillman…no precursors means no chance. Wish — everyone hated it. Reasonably speaking, Robot Dreams got the most amount of precursors after Suzume, Ninja Turtles and Chicken Run. So it’s not that much of a shock. I also didn’t even bother to update my rankings, I see, so it was still in my shocker tier. Shows you how little I was able to proofread any of what I wrote.
Either way, Boy and the Heron is winning this. Spider-Verse also has a shot, but I think Miyazaki probably takes it in the end. Everyone else is just along for the ride. But we’ll see what PGA and BAFTA have to say between the two. They’ve split the first two already. So we’ll see. The Annies will also help, to an extent. So there’s a lot left to play out here. It’s even at this point, but I suspect one will pull away before long.
Best International Feature
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Goddamn, what happened here. No documentaries, which isn’t wholly surprising to me. But looking at what did get on… what? Zone of Interest, yeah, okay. That’s winning, we all know it, the category ceases to be interesting after today. And Perfect Days — Japan always finds a way to get nominated and it’s Wim Wenders, and the film just feels like something that would make it. So that one made sense. The other three — Society of the Snow… since when do they actually nominate stuff like that? Io Capitano — Italy gets on for a non Paolo Sorrentino film? Teachers’ Lounge — Germany gets nominated for a film that’s not a runaway hit?
Okay, sure, the category was wide open this year. But that combination — I couldn’t have guessed that. And I want to meet the person who did. Also, funnily enough, The Teachers’ Lounge and Io Capitano are sitting on my desktop to watch and I just didn’t get around to them before nominations. Who knows what may have changed if I could’ve seen them in time.
I also only managed to see 6 films from the shortlist before guessing. And I knew Totem wasn’t gonna get nominated (though I liked it), and I knew Godland or Amerikatsi wouldn’t make it, and Fallen Leaves, despite the Globe nomination, also felt unlikely. 20 Days in Mariupol felt like a documentary and didn’t feel like something cinematic enough to get on here. So I understand that. The rest — could’ve been anything. I guessed blindly. And I guessed wrong. A 2/5 for me. So oh well. Byproduct of not having the time (or ability) to get as prepared as I’d like to be.
Best Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
Now this category, I saw 10/15. so I did feel confident. And I went 4/5. Maybe not because of it, but definitely not in spite of it. If I didn’t see To Kill a Tiger, I’m not sure I’d have guessed it. The minute I started watching that I knew if enough people saw it, they’d nominate it. Eternal Memory was another one that felt like that. The other two, 20 Days and Four Daughters — if they’re on two shortlists, you guess them here. You have to. So those were almost gimmes. And the fifth spot — sure, Bobi Wine. I expect to get something wrong. At least that doc (which I wasn’t able to see) was one I figured would be near the top of the list for what could get on.
I will also say that I am very saddened by the Beyond Utopia snub, as that documentary was very good. However, I should also say that I did correctly predict (and have been telling everyone who cared to ask me about it) the snubs of the two mainstream choices (Still and American Symphony). I don’t know why anyone would be surprised about those omissions and, quite frankly, guessing them at this point is almost lazy because this branch has repeatedly made it clear that they aren’t gonna go for stuff like that. So 4/5 and I correctly predicted those two being left off? That might as well be a 7/5 for me. I’ll take that every time.
Oh, and in terms of what’s gonna win — that’s tough. I suspect 20 Days in Mariupol and Eternal Memory are your frontrunners, but I’ve got zero clue there. That one I’m just gonna have to wait and see what the vibe is like as we get closer. No reason to think about it now.
Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wai Po
3/5. No shock there. 3/5 is a solid year in this category. Last Song from Kabul was left off, which is surprising, as that is a prototype nominee for this category. Barber of Little Rock makes total sense as a nominee. I just didn’t guess it. Island in Between — there’s always one nominee that surprises me. (but only me). I saw it and went, “This isn’t gonna get nominated.” And every year, one of those always gets nominated. In every Shorts category. Is what it is. But hey, 3/5 is just fine and offsets the 2/5 I got in International Feature.
In terms of what’s gonna win, I’m pretty sure Nai Nai & Wai Po is your clubhouse leader at the moment (Repair Shop and Book Banning feel like possibilities too). I need to see Nai Nai and Wai Po and ABCs of Book Banning. Once I see them both, I’ll have a pretty good idea what’s gonna win.
Best Live Action Short
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
I went 2/5 here, but I could just as easily gone 0/5. Not kidding there. Knight of Fortune was a last minute inclusion for me, and The After I almost wanted to flat out refuse to guess because it was too cynical to choose. But, I was already not guessing Henry Sugar or the Almodovar short, and leaving all three off felt stupid. So it could have been worse, and 2/5 is fine.
Let’s just run down the list quickly —
The After — Netflix, lot of money, sure. Not totally for me, but not a terrible short either. Just fine, probably your favorite, too, knowing them.
Invincible — the one I saw, didn’t particularly like and immediately dismissed. I’m telling you, there’s one in every category. What can you do. They liked it, it’s on. Cool.
Knight of Fortune — they like weird, Scandanavian dark humor shorts, so I’m glad I acquiesced and put it on.
Red, White and Blue — I loved this short and the only reason I didn’t guess it is because there have been abortion shorts shortlisted for what feels like the past five years and they never get on. Ever. So I just stopped guessing them. But, here we are. I’m very happy to have been wrong about this.
Henry Sugar — Wes Anderson. On paper it should be your favorite, and somehow will be really fitting if Wes Anderson’s only Oscar comes from a Shorts category (kind of like how Stanley Kubrick’s only Oscar is in Visual Effects).
Otherwise, just wanna show some love for some shorts I really liked — An Avocado Pit, Bienvenidos a Los Angeles and Yellow. All very good Invisible Border was solid as well. The One Note Man was cute. The Shepherd was nice, in an overly polished sort of way. The Anne Frank Gift Shop was nice as a ten minute comedic short, too. So they had some solid stuff this year. In the end, we got what I feel is a pretty boring category. But that’s okay. If it ultimately gets Wes Anderson an Oscar, who can complain, really?
Best Animated Short
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
2/5 again. This one hurts, just because Wild Summon was so great and part of me knew they’d find a way to leave it off. That said, Our Uniform got on, and that makes me happy. So I’m fine, in the end. Ninety-Five Senses was great and I’m glad they nominated it. Also, this means the director of Napoleon Dynamite (and Nacho Libre) is now an Academy Award nominee. Pachyderme is a prety standard-fare short for them. Letter to a Pig looks nice and makes a lot of sense for them (I just wasn’t sure they’d go there). And War Is Over — cool. It’s a great short, just wasn’t sure how they’d respond to it. Also, Once Upon a Studio got left off and that’s about the best present I could’ve asked for, next to Our Uniform making it on.
I’m okay with 2/5. And, having seen the majority of this shortlist, I think the category is almost as strong as it could’ve been. I still need to see Humo and I’m Hip, but having seen the other 13… there’s not that much that needed to be on here. Boom was cute. 27 I did like a lot and I feel sad it didn’t make it. And Wild Summon I already said. Otherwise — okay. They did decently.
In terms of what’s gonna win… I almost feel like War Is Over has the inside track just because of the title. Otherwise, if people watch them all, I think everything but Pachyderme has a legitimate shot at it.
– – – – –
Nominee Breakdown:
- Oppenheimer — 13 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound)
- Poor Things — 11 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Killers of the Flower Moon — 10 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design, Costume Design)
- Barbie — 8 nominations (Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Song x2, Production Design, Costume Design)
- Maestro — 7 nominations (Picture, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound)
- American Fiction — 5 nominations (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score)
- The Holdovers — 5 nominations (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing)
- The Zone of Interest — 5 nominations (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Sound, International Feature)
- Anatomy of a Fall — 4 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay,
- Napoleon — 3 nominations (Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects)
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One — 2 nominations (Visual Effects, Sound)
- Nyad — 2 nominati0ns (Actress, Supporting Actress)
- Past Lives — 2 nominations (Picture, Original Screenplay)
- Society of the Snow — 2 nominations (Makeup & Hairstyling, International Feature)
- 20 Days in Mariupol — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- American Fiction — 1 nomination (Song)
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- The Boy and the Heron — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- The Color Purple — 1 nomination (Supporting Actress)
- El Conde — 1 nomination (Cinematography)
- The Creator — 2 nominations (Visual Effects, Sound)
- Elemental — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- The Eternal Memory — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Flamin’ Hot — 1 nomination (Song)
- Four Daughters — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Godzilla Minus One — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- Golda — 1 nomination (Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny — 1 nomination (Score)
- Io Capitano — 1 nomination (International Feature)
- May December — 1 nomination (Original Screenplay)
- Nimona — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- Perfect Days — 1 nomination (International Feature)
- Rustin — 1 nomination (Actor)
- Robot Dreams — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- The Teachers’ Lounge — 1 nomination (International Feature)
- To Kill a Tiger — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
Remember what I was saying up top about things getting ‘what makes sense’? Oppenheimer made sense in all of its categories, admittedly (and would’ve tied the record had it made the Visual Effects shortlist). Killers of the Flower Moon — it missed in four categories. It wasn’t getting 14 nominations (though the Song nomination was also a bonus). At best 10-12 was its range. So it makes sense. Poor Things at 10 is the higher range of where it was gonna go, so that’s in line. 8-10 made sense, given the year. Barbie was never getting 12 nominations. 8 is exactly where you’d have pegged that just at a glance. Maestro at 7 — I’d call that an overperformance. 6-7 was the range, but even 7 feels like more than I know people felt about it. But it did well (and now will win maybe Makeup at most and that’ll be it). Zone of Interest — 5-6 was the range there, depending on Screenplay. Made sense. Guessing it in Production Design and other places would’ve put it at like 8 nominations. That’s a lot. American Fiction overperformed for sure at 5. Good for them. Holdovers slightly underperformed. I’d have guessed 6 there. But they still did well. Anatomy of a Fall, 3-4 was that range, based on what we saw. It all made sense. And I say this, mostly to caution myself for next year — if you get too hung up in the individual categories, next thing you know three films have 12 nominations. And that’s not how things go.
Otherwise, the major takeaways here — the same films are nominated everywhere. There were no real snubs, based on how the season has gone so far. Margot Robbie being left off and The Creator in Sound. That’s literally the two main takeaways for me from this list and the only two major things that I remember. There are other, minor things (Payne off in Director, Killers of the Flower Moon in song, America Ferrera, the Bening/Foster combo), but the precursors gave you most of that. So it’s not a surprise. Pretty straightforward year here, honestly.
– – – – –
But now, let’s talk about the important part. How did I do?
I went:
- 10/10 in Picture
- 5/5 in Original Screenplay, Costume Design
- 4/5 in Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design, Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature
- 3/5 in Supporting Actress, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, Documentary Short
- 2/5 in International Feature, Live Action Short, Animated Short
Weaker in 5/5s than I normally do, but very solid in 4s, with more 2s than I feel like I normally get. But I don’t actually look at the breakdown after the day I compile it, so who knows.
Out of 120 nominees, I guessed 90 of them correctly.
That’s a smooth 75%.
Which I will take. I thought for sure my lack of prep and attention would get me around or just under 70%. But apparently I CAN just roll out of bed and do 75%, which I love. It means I may have a shot at 80% one of these years. But 75% — that’s an average (very solid) year for me. I’ll take that every time.
Look at these previous years — that puts me, quite literally, in the median. 75% is my median. That’s pretty awesome. My average for doing this is 75%. Meaning I will guess 3 out of every 4 nominees. Can’t ask for much more than that.
Previous totals:
- 2022: 77.5% (93/120)
- 2021: 72.5% (87/120)
- 2020: 75.4% (89/118)
- 2019: 76.6% (95/124)
- 2018: 74.4% (90/121)
- 2017: 74.5% (91/122)
- 2016: 77% (94/122)
- 2015: 78.5% (95/121)
- 2014: 71.9% (87/121)
- 2013: 76% (92/121)
- 2012: 71% (87/122)
- 2011: 68% (81/119)
– – – – –
Anyway, I’ll update my Oscar Trivia page with all these nominations over the next few days. Otherwise you probably won’t hear much from me until closer to the Oscars. Maybe I’ll do a precursor dump, maybe not. Depends on what kind of time I have and how I’m feeling. I’ve still gotta write up the damn Top Ten list, which I’ve yet to do. So that’s my main priority at this point. The rest will happen whenever it happens. Otherwise, you know the drill — predictions article will go up Oscar weekend.
– – – – – – – – –