The B+ Oscar Ballot: Guide to the 96th Academy Awards

Here we are again. Another year, another Oscars.

One thing I really liked about this year is that there’s a consensus about the nominees. Most people seem to generally feel like the Academy got it right. You can quibble about a few specific categories and nominations and omissions, but overall, the films that got the majority of the nominations are largely ones everyone agrees are very good films. And it’s rare to have that kind of unanimity for an Oscar year.

The downside to that unanimity is that it typically leads to a feast or famine type of year, with films being either wholly embraced or wholly rejected. I don’t know if we’re gonna get that smorgasbord of films winning like we have in recent years. But that’s why we do the analysis, to see what’s actually gonna happen.

I will say the thing I say every year — I’m not doing this anymore to see how well I can guess. I, of course, want to get everything right, but the end goal for me is more to see how accurately I can pick apart each category to predict how well things are going to go. To me, having the film I chose as the secondary choice beating the first choice is almost as good as getting it right. I’m okay if the analysis is correct and I just got beat. I’m just here to try to help everyone else do as well on their ballots as they possibly can.

Now let’s see how well we can do this year.

 

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

My Personal Rankings:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Oppenheimer
3. Barbie
4. The Holdovers
5. The Zone of Interest
6. Past Lives
7. Poor Things
8. American Fiction
9. Anatomy of a Fall
10. Maestro

My Thoughts: 7/10 of this list matched by Top Ten (which I realize I haven’t officially posted yet) and the other three are no lower than Tier Two. That’s a good year. I don’t see any horrendous snubs and there’s not a whole lot I feel needed to get here from my favorites that would have made this list any better than it already is. Maestro and Anatomy of a Fall are the two that I liked the least (relatively) of the ten, so they’re at the bottom of the ballot. Maestro is the one I need to see win the least, so that’s 10. Then, American Fiction is in 11-20 while the rest are in the top ten, so that’s 8. Pretty simple. Past that — Poor Things seventh just because, while I loved it, I don’t need to see it win. I think Past Lives as a winner would be more interesting, so that goes above. Then Zone of Interest, because the remaining four are literally just my top 4 in order. There’s not much I need to think about here. Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer are 1 and 2, and they’re 1 and 2. It’s always good when a year is easy like this. Especially when I’d be very happy with at least six winners here.

My Vote: Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m… very okay with this. This is one of the years where I actually have no complaints.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• PGA: Oppenheimer
• BAFTA: Oppenheimer
• SAG: Oppenheimer
• BFCA: Oppenheimer
• Globes: Oppenheimer (Drama), Poor Things (Musical/Comedy)

Most Likely to Win: Oppenheimer. Clean precursor sweep, and it’s gonna win Director and the most overall awards. It’s about as clearcut a favorite as you’ll ever get.

The Competition: Killers of the Flower Moon. In theory this is the competition, but you’d have known if anyone was actually gonna vote for this. I wouldn’t rate this as my main choice to upset, but it does feel like the ‘in theory’ competition.

Spoiler Alert: The Holdovers. The key to picking an upset (especially without precursor splits) is figuring which film is most likely to appear top 3 on the most ballots (outside of the favorite). This seems likely to be that film. Past Lives or American Fiction won’t have enough consistent support at the top. Maestro clearly doesn’t. Barbie is just as likely to be #8 as it is #2 for a lot of people. Anatomy of a Fall will be high, but without a precursor win, I can’t see it higher than third or fourth. Zone of Interest won’t catch enough steam to rate (and I know some people will deliberately just not watch it and rate it low because they think it’ll upset them). And Poor Things feels more likely to be in the middle of a ballot than right near the top. Meanwhile, most people really like this, and most people will have this in their top four. I think this will get the second-most votes. If I’m picking anything to win in an outright rejection of Oppenheimer (or in that Spotlight way of stealing it with #2 and #3 votes), it’s this.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer

2. The Holdovers

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. Poor Things

6. The Zone of Interest

7. American Fiction

8. Barbie

9. Maestro

10. Past Lives

The Smart Choice: Oppenheimer. It’s won everything and all the momentum is in its favor. Don’t overthink yourself out of a sure thing.

The Deal: It’s swept everything, Nolan’s gonna win Director, it’ll win two acting awards and a bunch of technical categories too. This is a slam dunk. If somehow something beats it, my guess is The Holdovers. But given the amount of awards going this film’s way, I don’t see it happening. This should be easy.

The Vote: Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

My Personal Rankings:

1. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
5. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

My Thoughts: This is a nice category for a lot of reasons. Three foreign-born nominees, two foreign language films, a woman nominated, plus a living legend still making incredible movies 40+ years since his first nomination and a modern master finally getting his due. There’s a lot to like here (not to mention at least three other people who could be here too and still have the category be just as strong as it is). To start, I wouldn’t take either Yorgos or Trier. Both great efforts, just wouldn’t take them over the other three. Past that, it’s hard. On pure effort, I may take Glazer. The rawness of the work there is astounding to me. Then, on the overall — I liked Killers of the Flower Moon most and Scorsese at this point only having one is kind of ridiculous, so he makes an easy vote too. And then, Nolan — this is a master craftsman fully in command of every frame of his film, and it’s a very, very good piece of work. More so than Dunkirk, even, which I thought could easily have won (and maybe even should have won). It’s a very thin line between all three of those, and for now, I’m not gonna overthink it. I’m gonna need time to really go back and revisit these to really have a steady opinion. For now, I’m gonna take Glazer, just because I’m so in awe of what he accomplishes. But this one could change in the future.

My Vote: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Should Have Been Nominated: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Celine Song, Past Lives

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• DGA: Nolan
• BAFTA: Nolan
• BFCA: Nolan
• Globes: Nolan

Most Likely to Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer. Clean sweep. It’s happening, or it’s the greatest upset in the history of the category.

The Competition: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon. I have to imagine, if they’re not voting for Nolan, Marty is gonna get those votes. That’s the kind of logic you have to use when there’s a sweep.

Spoiler Alert: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest. You’d have known if Yorgos had a chance, and Triet is likely gonna win Screenplay (though she will have some fervent support and could actually end up as the person with the second-most votes), so that leaves Glazer, who I’m sure will have strong support from a small group of people. So let’s have him third. Shouldn’t come to this, either way.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

4. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

The Smart Choice: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer. A clean sweep, which includes the DGA (which has only been wrong 8 times ever) and BAFTA. He’s gonna win.

The Deal: Nolan’s gonna win. To pick an upset is to pick one of the most unlikeliest of scenarios (which would truly be shocking). Stick with the obvious and just let them do something crazy if they’re gonna.

The Vote: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

My Personal Rankings:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro

My Thoughts: Solid category. The outlier is Cooper, not because the performance is bad, but more… I feel like the performance is trying too hard, to the point where it’s a bit off-putting. The work is great, but I don’t feel heart. I’m more impressed with his filmmaking than his acting there. Then, Domingo. Very strong work. Really liked the performance a lot. Just can’t compete at the top. Next, Jeffrey Wright. Not the most strenuous piece of work, but I love him. Still, can’t compete at the top. This category has two vote-worthy performances, and having to pick between them is really tough. Giamatti and Murphy are both full stop incredible. They’re almost impossible to compare, too, which makes it harder to figure. But, with Murphy as much of an anchor as he is, and the quiet nuance he adds to a film that is, in many ways, larger than life — he feels like the choice.

My Vote: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Should Have Been Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Murphy
• BAFTA: Murphy
• BFCA: Giamatti
• Globe: Murphy (Drama), Giamatti (Musical/Comedy)

Most Likely to Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer. He has the most precursors, but it’s really SAG and BAFTA that tip the scales. Not to mention the whole ‘his film is gonna win Best Picture’ thing. That helps.

The Competition: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers. He started off neck-and-neck with Cillian, but lost the big two. Still could happen, but he’s not the favorite.

Spoiler Alert: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction. It’s not Domingo. The last time someone won as their film’s only nomination was 2006 (and you knew it was happening). Cooper may make third on respect alone, but there are enough people deliberately not voting for him as may vote for him. So let’s say it’s Wright. Everyone loves him. Either way, it seems clear it’s not gonna happen. Cooper actually is the third best option, but we won’t get here.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro

4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

The Smart Choice: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer. SAG and BAFTA are the precursors with Oscar voters, and he’s the focal point of the film that’s gonna win Best Picture. He’s the smart choice.

The Deal: You gotta feel good that the majority of this category are character actors finally getting their due as leading men (and the one leading man is the one everyone has outright rejected). I feel like we’d be happy most ways this category goes. But it’s clearly Cillian’s to lose. And if he does lose it, it’ll be to Giamatti. But he shouldn’t. The momentum is all his. He’ll take this.

The Vote: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

My Personal Rankings:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro
5. Annette Bening, Nyad

My Thoughts: Solid category (that could have been really solid, had that fifth spot gone a different way). Bening is fine in Nyad, but she’s just present and isn’t really competing. Mulligan is great in Maestro, but I don’t see enough in the performance to want to take her over those amazing other three. Hüller’s a great actress with two strong performances this year. But unfortunately I just wouldn’t take her over those other two. I’d want her to contend, but I just really like her performance and love the other two. And again I’m left with two incredible performances at the top, both of which are impossible to compare to one another and both of which I’d be happy to see win. Gladstone is so quiet and powerful, whereas Stone is on this incredible high-wire act that required such dedication. Truly an embarrassment of riches. Ultimately, I think I’m gonna side with Gladstone, just because the intangibles you have to use to split a tight vote all fall in her favor. But it’s nice to have multiple great options in multiple acting categories.

My Vote: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Have Been Nominated: Margot Robbie, Barbie; Greta Lee, Past Lives

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Gladstone
• BAFTA: Stone
• BFCA: Stone
• Globe: Gladstone (Drama), Stone (Musical/Comedy)

Most Likely to Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon. We’ve got a dead heat with precursors. Technically Stone has more, with the Globes split. However, SAG has historically been the most important to have, and the last time we had this exact split, Cate Blanchett had BAFTA, BFCA and the Globe and Michelle Yeoh had SAG and the Globe. And we saw how that went. Fervent support goes a long way. And with the clear and vocal support for Lily that’s been out there since Cannes, I think she’s gotta be seen as the favorite.

The Competition: Emma Stone, Poor Things. Technically she has the most precursors, and every time since 2000 the SAG winner didn’t win the Oscar, the BAFTA winner won. It’s one or the other here.

Spoiler Alert: Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall. The top two have been clear from the start of the race. Bening is just happy to be here and Mulligan has lost every precursor to the top two. Hüller is the one who’s gonna get the votes that don’t go to the top two. If anyone upsets, it’ll be her.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

5. Annette Bening, Nyad

The Smart Choice: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon. I think it’s her. She won SAG, split the Globe and she didn’t have a chance to lose to her at BAFTA because she wasn’t nominated there. You could see that as a negative, but given how the BAFTAs have nominated lately, I’m not sure how much it is. There’s been clear, vocal support for her from months ago, and she just feels like the most likely person to walk away with it, even if it’s not a sure thing.

The Deal: It’s either Gladstone or Stone. That’s clear to anyone with eyes. You could get bogged down on the numbers of Stone having more precursors, but as soon as Gladstone won SAG, I think it became clear she’s the favorite. Stone’s film is a little trickier, narratively, and the tone may turn some people off. Plus she’s already won. Not that it prevents her from winning again, but you do have to think a handful of people will recognize that and may adjust their thinking because of it. I just feel like there’s so much upside to Gladstone there that you have to take her. The idea of her becoming the first indigenous person to win an acting award, the fact that it allows them to get this film something (which they clearly liked, because of all the nominations, and would shut out otherwise)… it makes me lean toward her. There is the argument about SAG becoming more of a popularity contest. But 1) you’d think that would’ve meant Stone won, and 2) SAG’s still only missed twice in the past decade. Knowing everything I know and seeing everything I see, I feel like it’s 60/40 in favor of Gladstone (even though I wouldn’t be remotely shocked if somehow Stone walked away with it).

The Vote: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

My Personal Rankings:

1. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
4. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
5. Ryan Gosling, Barbie

My Thoughts: What a good category of actors. And the performances are all good too. This is a category I wish had a defined #1, just so I didn’t have to figure out what the hell to do. For now — Gosling feels like a five. I love the performance, but I don’t feel any urgency to vote for him. Can’t explain it, just don’t feel like going there. Brown is awesome in his film, and while his performance impressed me least, I’d still probably want to vote for him over Gosling (this is the weird math I allow myself when differentiating between people I’m not gonna vote for. It all evens out over time, anyway). Next for me is De Niro. The performance is great, but I don’t really want to vote for him. Actually, I’d want to vote for him least of all, just given how everyone else here has never won and all deserve something at this point. But the performance rates well for me. Probably second on overall work. Then, Downey — I love him and I love what he did with the role. I just… don’t see it as a #1. I’d be voting for it because it’s Downey and it feels like the thing to do. Which leaves Ruffalo — a performance I actually do love. I think he’s hilarious and I think it’s a wonderful departure for him. Given not being thrilled by anyone else, I’m okay taking him. We’ll see what time does for me with this one. But for now, the Ruffalo performance is my favorite.

My Vote: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Charles Melton, May December

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Downey
• BAFTA: Downey
• BFCA: Downey
• Globe: Downey

Most Likely to Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer. Clean sweep. You know what it is already.

The Competition: Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon. What do you do with a sweep? I guess take the most respected veteran in a role even people who didn’t like the film are commending for its depiction of true evil. Having him possibly come along with Gladstone makes sense (one could make the case for Ruffalo with Stone, but of the two possibilities, which really feels more likely?), so I guess he’s the alternate. Anyone other than Downey winning this would be a shock anyway.

Spoiler Alert: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction. Gosling’s lost everywhere. So that means, if there’s an upset, you’re looking at Brown or Ruffalo, who both missed BAFTA. And for me, Brown feels more likely. Not sure why, he just does. Still, a sweep’s a sweep, so it doesn’t really matter in the end.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

5. Ryan Gosling, Barbie

The Smart Choice: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer.

The Deal: Downey’s winning. He’s swept everything and everyone loves him. They’ve been waiting for a chance to do this and now they have their perfect opportunity.

The Vote: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

America Ferrera, Barbie

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

My Personal Rankings:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
3. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
4. America Ferrera, Barbie
5. Jodie Foster, Nyad

My Thoughts: Thank god for Randolph, otherwise I’d have no idea what the hell to do with this one. She is by far the vote. That performance is no-doubt-about-it good. Blunt is very good in Oppenheimer, but for me it’s one of those ‘respect but don’t love’ pieces of work. Brooks is terrific in Color Purple, but it feels like a note-for-note redo of Oprah’s work in the original film, just with great singing alongside it. I don’t feel a need to vote for her. Ferrera — surprised she’s here, happy for her… not gonna vote for her. But, for what it’s worth, the performance did impress me. So no negativity there. I just wouldn’t take her. And then Foster — love her, love how easy she makes it look… no real desire to take her. She’s just sort of there for me. It’s Randolph for me, and it’s not even close.

My Vote: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Should Have Been Nominated: Tilda Swinton, The Killer

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Randolph
• BAFTA: Randolph
• BFCA: Randolph
• Globe: Randolph

Most Likely to Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers. This was a sweep the minute she won the first one.

The Competition: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer. Who else is gonna get any votes? It’s not Brooks (2008 was the last time someone won as their film’s only nomination). Ferrera would shock all of us. And we know it’s not Jodie. So it’s Blunt by default. Everyone loves her and the film is going to do very well.

Spoiler Alert: America Ferrera, Barbie. My gut says it’s really Foster (given her stature next to Brooks or Ferrera), but that film is clearly not very liked. Plus, with the Brooks statistic, that only leaves Ferrera. She’s in a heavily-nominated film and gives a memorable monologue that will at least stay with some voters. The odds of us getting this far down the ballot are astronomical, so I’m not really worried about whoever it is that’s here.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

3. America Ferrera, Barbie

4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

5. Jodie Foster, Nyad

The Smart Choice: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers. Come on, now. This was happening from before nominations were even announced. Don’t overthink it.

The Deal: Cleanest sweep of the year. This is the biggest lock of the four acting categories.

The Vote: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Holdovers
   
2. Past Lives
   
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Maestro
   
5. May December

My Thoughts: Feels like this category should be stronger, given the year, but weirdly all the top films have adapted screenplays. Still, the top is solid enough that the category works. May December — there’s really great stuff there, but there’s also curious stuff there, and the mix of comedy, melodrama and actual emotion doesn’t fully land for me. So that’s fifth. Maestro makes fourth, just on the respect value alone, but that would be fifth in most categories. There’s not much there for me. Anatomy of a Fall is great. Can’t deny that. The only downside to it for me is that I just like the other two scripts more. Past Lives — great writing. Truly great writing. The long scene of her and her husband in bed is astounding. Most times, I’d probably vote for that script. But The Holdovers, man. That movie is so easygoing and such a great watch. The rewatchability of that movie is insane. I have no hesitations about voting for that. At all.

My Vote: The Holdovers

Should Have Been Nominated: No One Will Save You

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: Anatomy of a Fall
• Globe: Anatomy of a Fall

WGA isn’t announcing until April. So they’re no help. Which makes this pretty easy.

Most Likely to Win: Anatomy of a Fall. It swept the two precursors we’re gonna get (and isn’t eligible for the third anyway). Plus it’s a foreign film that managed to get nominated for both Director and Editing. It’s the favorite.

The Competition: The Holdovers. Crazy that an Alexander Payne film isn’t the favorite for Screenplay. But, he didn’t write this one, so I kinda get it. Same thing happened to Nebraska. Without a precursor (and even if you figure it’ll win WGA), it’s hard to say this is anything more than second choice.

Spoiler Alert: Past Lives. May December is not happening. The last time something won Screenplay without a Picture nomination was 2004, and the last time something won Screenplay as its film’s only nomination was 1957. And Maestro… well, we know it’s not Maestro (WGA didn’t even nominate it). Which leaves Past Lives, a film people adored. Enough people will love this enough to make it third, but there aren’t enough people to put it above the top two. This is its spot.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Anatomy of a Fall

2. The Holdovers

3. Past Lives

4. Maestro

5. May December

The Smart Choice: Anatomy of a Fall. Picture, Director, Editing. A foreign film got all of those nominations. And it’s won two precursors, including BAFTA! I don’t see how it loses after that.

The Deal: You gotta figure it’s Anatomy of a Fall all the way. Sure, The Holdovers could win on reflex alone, but without a precursor to this point and without Alexander Payne actually writing it, I feel like Anatomy of a Fall is the clearcut winner and you just gotta let them vote Holdovers if they’re gonna.

The Vote: Anatomy of a Fall

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

My Personal Rankings:

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
   
3. Poor Things
4. American Fiction
   
5. The Zone of Interest

My Thoughts: This one is tough. I could vote for any one of these. And there are scripts that didn’t get nominated that could also be the vote. Crazy. I guess I’d put Zone of Interest fifth. I know it’s simplistic to say the power of the film is more in the directing than the writing, because the writing is a huge part of it and is also great. But I also know that I wouldn’t vote for it here, so let’s just make it fifth and see how time adjudicates my thoughts on this category. Next, American Fiction. It’s great work (and there are some legitimately laugh out loud moments in it), but I didn’t feel excitement with it like I did with the other nominees. So it’s fourth. Next, Poor Things. There’s a lot there (a lot to like and just… also a lot), and it’s great work, but I also kinda feel like it’s a bit dependent on Yorgos and his look being on top of it. I just… wouldn’t take it over those other two. The choice here is between Oppenheimer and Barbie. And as much as I know the achievement Oppenheimer is… it’s gotta be Barbie for me. I watched that movie in awe of what Greta Gerwig was able to achieve (and get away with). I gotta take that.

My Vote: Barbie

Should Have Been Nominated: Killers of the Flower Moon

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: American Fiction
• BFCA: Barbie (Original), American Fiction (Adapted)

Again, WGA isn’t announcing until April (Barbie is also in Original there, and Poor Things and Zone of Interest were both ineligible), so this is all we’ve got to go by.

Most Likely to Win: American Fiction. It’s won both precursors and it beat Oppenheimer at BAFTA. That’s all I need to see to call it a favorite. Is that a guarantee it’ll win? No. The Picture favorite can always beat it. But, with the showing this has had, you have to call it a favorite.

The Competition: Oppenheimer. 2/3 of all Best Picture winners also won Screenplay. Pure logic says this should be the favorite. But it has no precursors and it doesn’t seem like people will rush to give it this on top of everything else it’s gonna get. You gotta play the numbers. I’ll give it second on Picture status alone, but this cannot be considered a favorite.

Spoiler Alert: Barbie. This is interesting because it was nominated Original everywhere else, so we don’t actually know how they’d rate this against the other nominees (except from the Globes, which…). But, given how the film is sitting, it seems unlikely they’ll embrace it enough to vote for it over those other two. I don’t think there’s real love for this among the majority of the Academy. Remember, the populace is not this body. To me, it feels like a ‘possible, but unlikely’ third choice.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. American Fiction

2. Oppenheimer

3. Barbie

4. The Zone of Interest

5. Poor Things

The Smart Choice: I think the answer here is American Fiction. On the one hand, you’d think it would be the Best Picture favorite that’s largely dialogue-based. On the other hand, they’ve never respected Nolan the writer and even his hometown awards show voted for American Fiction over him. Sure, Oppenheimer can still win, but American Fiction has the two precursors and I feel like people may want to give it something (since Oppenheimer is clearly about to win most everything else). I think that makes it the smart choice.

The Deal: It’s either American Fiction or Oppenheimer (Barbie would legitimately surprise me if it pulled it off, and the other two aren’t happening). One is the Picture favorite and the other has all the precursors. There are cases for both, and it’s just gonna come down to which you feel better about taking. Personally, I feel like Oppenheimer is gonna win enough elsewhere and this is an easy category for them to give to something else (even if it still feels slightly weird). I do think American Fiction will end up bing the choice. That BAFTA win is a big deal. They haven’t missed in almost a decade (and the two times since 2014 they’ve missed were because the Oscar winner wasn’t nominated there — and one of them is because it was in the other category). However, you can make the argument that Barbie being here instead of Original could lead to a dilution of votes that allows Oppenheimer to muscle through. My real rationale for this is that Oppenheimer is on track for 8 wins (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematograph, Score, Sound). Only 7 films ever have won more than 8 awards (and Slumdog is the only film since Amadeus to even get to 8. Even Gravity and Everything Everywhere only got to 7). To just assume this is gonna get to 9 feels like it’s asking for trouble. So I’m going elsewhere here and see what happens.

The Vote: American Fiction

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

My Personal Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Holdovers
4. Poor Things
5. Anatomy of a Fall

My Thoughts: Let me start by saying I am so happy The Holdovers got nominated. That kind of editing isn’t always sometthing they’ll nominate in a year as heavily-populated by good films as this. Also very happy for Anatomy of a Fall, too. Getting Editing with the Picture list we have this year was no easy feat. But we know what the class of this category is. Thelma is a legend and her work is always interesting and always finds at least two ways to make your eyes bulge in awe of her choices. And Oppenheimer — man. Even if you didn’t think it was one of the best films of the year, the editing in that film is insanely good. That’s the winner here.

My Vote: Oppenheimer

Should Have Been Nominated: How to Blow Up a Pipeline

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ACE: Oppenheimer (Drama), The Holdovers (Comedy)
• BAFTA: Oppenheimer
• BFCA: Oppenheimer

Most Likely to Win: Oppenheimer. Come on, buddy.

The Competition: Anatomy of a Fall. It’s not Holdovers (clearly), and you’d have known if Poor Things was gonna make any noise. You don’t even need to look this far. It’s an easy year.

Spoiler Alert: Killers of the Flower Moon. It’s Thelma. She’s got 3 wins already. If it’s anyone, it’s her.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Anatomy of a Fall

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Poor Things

5. The Holdovers

The Smart Choice: Oppenheimer. It swept. It’s Nolan. It’s pristinely edited. It’s gonna win.

The Deal: We should be talking about how amazing it is that two of the top contenders in this category are both women. That’s the biggest deal of all. Otherwise, Oppenheimer is gonna win. We all know it. This is feeling a lot like 2013, where you knew Gravity was gonna win a bunch of technical stuff and it made most of the ballot that much easier.

The Vote: Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Cinematography

El Conde

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

My Personal Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer
   
2. Maestro
3. Poor Things
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
   
5. El Conde

My Thoughts: I’m so happy El Conde is here, even though I know almost no one has or will ever watch it. But it’s a really fun movie, looks great, and Ed Lachman is a legend. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Prieto really had a hell of a year. His Killers of the Flower Moon work is absolutely sublime (and the work on Barbie was also terrific). And Robbie Ryan — nice to see him expanding the palette he started with Yorgos in The Favourite. The film is gorgeous. Maestro — incredible work by Matthew Libatique, one of the great unsung cinematographers. It’s easy to get lost in the ‘Oscar-bait’ of that film, but the actual filmmaking is sublime and Libatique is a huge part of that (as he also was with Star Is Born). But man… Hoyte. The effort here alone is enough. But, between this and Dunkirk, and Interstellar, and Nope, and Ad Astra, and Her, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and Let the Right One In… that dude… he’s the winner. And it’s not even the ‘black-and-white mixed with color’ aspect. It’s the full body of work that is Oppenheimer. This is rightly his.

My Vote: Oppenheimer

Should Have Been Nominated: The Holdovers

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ASC: Oppenheimer
• BAFTA: Oppenheimer
• BFCA: Oppenheimer

Most Likely to Win: Oppenheimer. Clean sweep again. This is easy.

The Competition: Killers of the Flower Moon. Without a precursor, I’m just going by the fact that it’s classy, it’s Marty, and it’s part western. They like outdoor stuff. Otherwise, I’ve got no clue if it’s not Oppenheimer.

Spoiler Alert: Poor Things. It’s probably actually Maestro, but I don’t think it much matters in the end. El Conde stands no chance and the kitchen sink approach of Maestro just doesn’t feel like something they’ll flock to. I feel like Poor Things will get a few votes just because people may look to vote for it somewhere and the look is memorable. But again, we know where this one’s headed.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Poor Things

4. Maestro

5. El Conde

The Smart Choice: Oppenheimer. It’s winning. Come on, now.

The Deal: Oppenheimer is gonna win. It’s a lock in just about all the categories it’s gonna win. We rarely get precursor sweeps here (only 5 since 2009), and never has something that’s swept lost.

The Vote: Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Score

American Fiction

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

My Personal Rankings:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. American Fiction
   
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
   

My Thoughts: Gotta love when my two favorite scores get nominated. Sure makes that easy. All five of these scores were among my favorites, so I’ve got no real issues here past maybe hoping they got a few ones I liked slightly better off the shortlist on instead. To start — Dial of Destiny is classic John Williams, great work, but not the choice. Poor Things — wonderful piece of work from Jerskin Fendrix, fits the film, but not something I need to see win. Oppenheimer — beautiful work from Ludwig Goransson, but unfortunately I liked the other two scores better. American Fiction — loved Laura Karpman’s work here. Most years, that would be my choice, even over Oppenheimer. But Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson. That’s the vote. I was hooked from those opening notes and absolutely adore that score. There are three good winners here, but that’s my choice.

My Vote: Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Have Been Nominated: The Boy and the Heron

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: Oppenheimer
• BFCA: Oppenheimer
• Globe: Oppenheimer

When there’s a clean sweep of the precursors, you know where it’s going.

Most Likely to Win: Oppenheimer. It swept. It’s winning.

The Competition: Killers of the Flower Moon. I was hoping Robbie Robertson could finally get his flowers (even posthumously), but it wasn’t meant to be. Still, if it’s gonna be anything, it should be this.

Spoiler Alert: American Fiction. It’s not John Williams (clearly), and Poor Things isn’t a score that wins. This film will have love and will get votes from those looking to get it something. Not sure it’s enough to win, but if there’s a spoiler, it’s this.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. American Fiction

4. Poor Things

5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

The Smart Choice: Oppenheimer. It swept everything, everyone loves Ludwig and it even became a TikTok sensation this year. It’s happening.

The Deal: I don’t see how Oppenheimer loses this. There’s no momentum for anything else, and, since we’ve had three precursors, only once (2005) did something sweep and then lose (and it was to the Best Picture winner). The last nine films to sweep precursors won. I think you’re safe.

The Vote: Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside, from Flamin’ Hot

“I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie

“It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?,” from Barbie

My Personal Rankings:

1. “I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie
2. “What Was I Made For,” from Barbie
3. “It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony
4. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon
5. “The Fire Inside, from Flamin’ Hot

My Thoughts: Why must they make me deride a film each year just because they forced a nomination simply because Diane Warren wrote the song? Seriously. What the hell is Flamin’ Hot doing here? The movie’s fun, but there are always better choices than Diane Warren songs. Can we just have her and Billie Eilish write something for a movie so we can end this purgatory? Anyway, very happy “Wahzhazhe” got nominated. First indigenous nominee in Song. Also nice to see Jon Batiste here. His song was good. But we all know this category is all about Barbie. The only question is which song I take between the two. And man, that’s tough. Normally I’d say “What Was I Made For” is just an ‘end credits’ song, but that’s not true. It’s a focal point of the film and adds such thematic relevance, to the point where when it plays in the third act it actually adds so much more emotion to an already emotional scene. But… “I’m Just Ken” is a completely unexpected song that turns into a Busby Berkeley-style musical number. You know I’m gonna take that just on the cinematic value alone. The film’s gonna win either way, so let me have my fun.

My Vote: “I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie

Should Have Been Nominated: “Meet in the Middle,” from Flora and Son; “Am I Dreaming,” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BFCA: “I’m Just Ken”
• Globe: “What Was I Made For”

Most Likely to Win: “What Was I Made For?,” from Barbie. This is tough, because we know the film is gonna win, but you have to decide which song is more likely to beat the other. I’m leaning toward this, just because it’s Billie Eilish and she’s a previous winner, but it’s almost 50/50. The Ken song is much flashier, and I do think it may actually win. But this seems like the favorite on star quality alone.

The Competition: “I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie. One or the other is winning, that part is clear.

Spoiler Alert: “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon. If Barbie loses, it won’t be to Diane Warren. And between a documentary not many people saw (that isn’t even nominated in Documentary) and the song written by indigenous songwriters from a film nominated in 8 other categories, I’m gonna pick that as the possible spoiler.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. “What Was I Made For?,” from Barbie

2. “I’m Just Ken,” from Barbie

3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” from Killers of the Flower Moon

4. “It Never Went Away,” from American Symphony

5. “The Fire Inside, from Flamin’ Hot

The Smart Choice: “What Was I Made For?,” from Barbie. Seems like a good idea to take the super famous pop star.

The Deal: Either “What Was I Made For” or “I’m Just Ken” is going to win this. There’s really no surprise to be had. With the Scorecard Ballot, this will be a 1 or 2 no matter what happens. I’m saying stick with Billie Eilish as the likely winner, but you could legitimately take either Barbie song here and feel good about your chances.

The Vote: “What Was I Made For?,” from Barbie

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

My Personal Rankings:

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

My Thoughts: There was such great production design this year that it’s a shame we could only nominate five films. But for what it’s worth, all five are great efforts. Napoleon is the least interesting of the nominated efforts to me. You know what you’re getting there. Looks nice, but you’ve seen it dozens of times. So that’s fifth. Killers of the Flower Moon — great effort, but I feel like most people would struggle to recall specific locations from it. Which… for something that’s gonna win, you kinda want something you remember. So, respectable fourth. Oppenheimer — like Killers of the Flower Moon it’s solid, unflashy. I at least kind of remember Los Alamos. But it’s not something I think can hang with the out and out garishness (in the best way possible) of the final two nominees. This category (like the next one) is all about Barbie and Poor Things. And, going into this, I’d have assumed it was gonna be Barbie all the way for me. But, you know what? The more I thought about it, and the more I go back and revisit those films — Barbie, while amazing, is largely taking existing locations from the toys and bringing them to life. The work is incredible, but there’s a safety net there. Poor Things straight up creates an entire world. And there’s the first act, in Dafoe’s house and surrounding town (which could win the category by itself, the way the look changes as the film progresses and the color palette changes), then Lisbon, then the ship… the entire film is just one gorgeous location after another. All operating in that somewhat German Expressionist style for much of the film, trending toward reality (underscoring the narrative progression of the film, which is exactly what great production design is supposed to do). As much as I wouldn’t think it would’ve been the choice going in… it’s the choice.

My Vote: Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Asteroid City, The Zone of Interest

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ADG: Oppenheimer (Period), Poor Things (Fantasy)
• BAFTA: Poor Things
• SDSA: Poor Things (Period… and Best Picture), Barbie (Fantasy)
• BFCA: Barbie

Most Likely to Win: Poor Things. It edges out Barbie on precursors, but beating it at the guild and BAFTA (and the fact that the set designers gave it Best Picture)… it’s the favorite and has to be the assumed winner until proven otherwise.

The Competition: Barbie. It’s the flashiest nominee and most years this would be a runaway winner… but it split one guild with Poor Things and won the only precursor that doesn’t have voting Academy members in it. It can’t be considered the favorite.

Spoiler Alert: Oppenheimer. It’s not gonna win everything, guys. But, given its stature (and the guild win, which helps), it’s the spoiler. This is an easy category for it not to win, but it’ll still get votes.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Poor Things

2. Barbie

3. Oppenheimer

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Napoleon

The Smart Choice: Poor Things. It won every award you’d want to see it win, and the only reason people aren’t 1000% convinced it’s a lock is because Barbie is so visible (and visual) and flashy in its effort. And it could still win. But Poor Things is the absolute smart choice. Just watching the film, you’d understand why it’s gonna win this.

The Deal: I’m gonna say 70/30 Poor Things. Barbie could beat it, but I’m not sure it’s gonna. Of all the categories you can try to catch an alternate, this is one of the top ones. But I still think this is a pretty easy winner. Sometimes the mainstream appeal and box office for a film can obscure the fact that the likely winner here has 11 nominations. It’s not going home empty-handed, guys.

The Vote: Poor Things

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Costume Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

My Personal Rankings:

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

My Thoughts: I’ll admit, I’m slightly surprised Oppenheimer got nominated here too. It makes sense that they’d add it to extra categories, but I can’t say I was overly blown away by its costumes. So that’s fifth. Napoleon — obviously the costumes are great, but they also are so standard fare for a film of that type that it’s hard to get excited about them. Killers of the Flower Moon is another one — very solid costumes, but nothing too memorable. However, that has a lot of Native attire that sticks out and is great to see in a non-exploitative or stereotypical way, so I give that the edge over the other two. But ultimately, like Production Design, this category is all about Barbie and Poor Things. And here… I think I side with Barbie. Poor Things has a lot of wonderful costumes, but they’re not as memorable as those of Barbie. I guess you could also say it’s just a recreation of costumes that exist for the dolls, but there’s other stuff that’s there too that you remember (hell, the “I Am Kenough” hoodie alone…). I’m taking Barbie.

My Vote: Barbie

Should Have Been Nominated: The Color Purple

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• CDG: Poor Things (Period), Barbie (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)
• BAFTA: Poor Things
• BFCA: Barbie

Most Likely to Win: Poor Things. It’s 50/50. They split the precursors, but this won the guild and BAFTA, and that makes it the favorite.

The Competition: Barbie. Splitting the guild is good, but BAFTA has actual voters and BFCA is… BFCA. So it’s the second choice here, but this is one of the closest races on the entire ballot.

Spoiler Alert: Killers of the Flower Moon. I guess, right? I mean, Oppenheimer can be considered third on profile/total wins it’ll get alone. But this at least has memorable Native garb there. I don’t think we get this far for it to matter.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Barbie

2. Poor Things

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Oppenheimer

5. Napoleon

The Smart Choice: Poor Things. This feels like a legitimate 50/50. But I’m gonna say Poor Things just because it has both the guild and BAFTA, whereas Barbie has the guild and BFCA. BAFTA has Oscar voters. But legitimately it could be either.

The Deal: We know it’s a 50/50 between Barbie and Poor Things. Poor Things has the two precursors with Oscar voters, has more nominations and feels like the smarter choice in a 51/49 kind of way. Now, I’m going to give you data, and you can do with it what you want:

We’ve had three precursors for this category since 2009 (14 years). I looked at all the splits — half of them were sweeps and the winner was obvious (2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2020, 2021), so we’ll disregard those years. That leaves 7 years to look at for comps. In 3 of them (2011, 2013, 2017), one film won 2/3 precursors and lost the guild. For 2 of those, it sure seems like the guild just did not like Mark Bridges, as both of his films were heavy Oscar favorites and clearly going to win. The other time, they voted for living legend Patricia Norris over the clear Oscar favorite. I chalk those three up to guild shit. 1 year, the Oscar winner had zero precursors (2016) and didn’t even win the guild’s secondary award. Completely out of nowhere, can’t do anything with that. Another year (2022), the guild and BAFTA winner lost to the BFCA winner (which lost at the guild). Not an exact split, but the alternate choice won. Then another year (2019), BFCA went off the board and there was a split between the guild and BAFTA. There, it seemed pretty obvious the BAFTA winner (Little Women) would win.

That leaves one year. In that year, the precursors split exactly as they did this year. One film won CDG Period and BAFTA and the other won Sci-Fi/Fantasy at the guild and BFCA. That year? 2018. The Period/BAFTA winner was The Favourite, a Yorgos film with 10 nominations. The Fantasy/BFCA winner? Black Panther, the highest-grossing film of the year. Black Panther won the Oscar.

Take that for what you will, but it’s a legitimate toss-up between Barbie and Poor Things. I think, more so than Production Design, you can take Barbie here and feel like you’re in a good spot. And you know what? That’s what I’m gonna do. You gotta have one category where you go with your gut. So let’s let that be this one. It’s a 1 or a 2 either way, so I’m not overly concerned. You can only do so much in figuring this stuff out.

The Vote: Barbie

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Golda

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

My Personal Rankings:

1. Poor Things
2. Maestro
3. Oppenheimer
4. Society of the Snow
5. Golda
   

My Thoughts: So Golda — I understand the transformation there, but there’s just something… not right about the look of Helen Mirren in that film for me. So that’s fifth. Could be fourth, but it was never gonna go higher than that anyway. Society of the Snow — lot of nice subtle effects. Survival film, so you’ve got the slow deterioration of skin and stuff, plus injuries. It’s good work, but never gonna be the choice. Oppenheimer — Einstein is the big piece, plus they do a good job transforming Downey, plus some aging in there at the end. It rates solidly, but isn’t the vote. Maestro — great transformative work on Bradley Cooper and incredible craftsmanship (regardless of how you feel about it being done in the first place). The makeup in the scenes of him when he’s older are sublime. But… Poor Things. The work on Willem Dafoe is incredible, plus the work on Emma Stone — you forget how different she looks over the course of that film. The hair alone. Plus the little things, like how tatted up Kathryn Hunter is. That’s my choice. There’s transformative and then there’s just plain unique and memorable. I’m taking the latter.

My Vote: Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Killers of the Flower Moon

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• MU+HS: Maestro x2
• BAFTA: Poor Things

Most Likely to Win: Maestro. The guild went for it, and it’s the most immediately obvious piece of makeup. I think you have to consider this the favorite, whether you end up taking it or not.

The Competition: Poor Things. It’s one or the other here. That part is pretty clear. And this winning BAFTA is a very big deal.

Spoiler Alert: Oppenheimer. Nothing has won this category as its film’s only nomination since Suicide Squad (and it’s never happened since we’ve had 5 nominees), plus no one saw Golda. And Society of the Snow — only two foreign language films have won this category — La Vie en Rose (which came along with an acting win) and Pan’s Labyrinth. It’s a tall order. This is the default third. Perfect spot for a film you don’t think would win but also can’t 100% rule out either.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Maestro

2. Poor Things

3. Oppenheimer

4. Society of the Snow

5. Golda

The Smart Choice: It’s Maestro. My gut says Poor Things could take this, but I think it’s Maestro. I’d have felt better if we had the third precursor to tip the scales, but we’ve got what we’ve got. Both have transformative makeup effects, but one is front and center around a nominated performance. Looking at most recent winners (The Whale, Eyes of Tammy Faye, Ma Rainey, Vice, Darkest Hour), they’re centered around work on one main person. It just feels like that’s where this is headed.

The Deal: The argument for Poor Things — in the past 25 years, BAFTA is 18/25 straight up with this category. 4/7 misses involved the Oscar winner not being nominated there. The other 3 all involved them picking something else over what was a really obvious winner. Poor Things has 11 nominations, seems to be liked more than Maestro and Emma Stone is in a decent position to win Best Actress. Typically this award comes along with a winning performance (but not always). I remember 2021 where I said “if you’re taking Chastain in Actress, take it in Makeup too.” I echo that sentiment here. If Stone beats Gladstone, I don’t see why this wouldn’t also come along. I understand the makeup is not solely for her, but the logic still stands.

Now, the argument for Maestro — the effects are quite astounding, they love a proper acting transformation, Cooper is the main character and those effects are front and center throughout the film. And since the guild returned in 2013, their Period/Character Makeup winner has matched the Oscar winner 8/10 times. The 2 times it missed were because Bombshell won the Contemporary category instead and because The Whale was only nominated in Special Makeup Effects (which Bombshell and Maestro also both won). Every Oscar winner since 2013 won somewhere at the guild, and Poor Things did not. It also won at BAFTA, which is a hometown advantage for it (see also: The Favourite winner there over eventual Oscar winner Vice). So while this is a tight race, I think you gotta lean Maestro here just because of how much sense it makes. My gut keeps telling me Poor Things has a real shot at this, but I do think the smart money is on Maestro (and, as I always say, I’d rather be wrong and pleasantly surprised than wrong and disappointed).

The Vote: Maestro

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Visual Effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Napoleon

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Creator
   
2. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
3. Godzilla Minus One
4. Napoleon
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

My Thoughts: What a weak year for Visual Effects. Even the longlist was uninspiring. That’s why the Oppenheimer omission is meaningful. Not because the effects were astounding, but because it would’ve been an easy winner and allowed us to overlook everything else around it. But, based on what could have been here, we ended up with a reasonable enough category. I have not been a fan of Marvel’s VFX from the beginning, so there’s absolutely nothing in Guardians that makes me even think for a nanosecond about voting for that. Godzilla — the effects look nice. I probably rate it fourth on effort and third simply because I’d rather see it win than something like Napoleon. Napoleon’s effects are subtle and look good, but it’s not something I need to see win. To me, the choice is either The Creator or Mission: Impossible. And, as much as I love a good practical effects film — I think The Creator is the choice. I almost audibly gasped when I saw the first shot of one of the robots turning sideways and seeing the hole in their heads. That looked good. And, in a category like this, it’s enough for me to vote for it. This won’t go down as a memorable category (unless Godzilla wins), so I’m fine with it as a vote.

My Vote: The Creator

Should Have Been Nominated: This was the best category based on the shortlist (but Poor Things would’ve been fun).

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• VES: The Creator (5 wins)*, Guardians 3 (2 wins)

BFCA and BAFTA both went off the board, so we’re left only with guild and guesswork for this one.

Most Likely to Win: The Creator. Our only precursor went for this in a big way. Plus it’s a classy, effects-heavy sci-fi film, which, absent a major Best Picture nominee, basically puts this in the driver’s seat (the Sound nomination this got also helps matters).

The Competition: Godzilla Minus One. Marvel’s never won this category, so it’s absolutely not Guardians. Mission Impossible’s never been nominated before, so a sudden win would be shocking. And given Napoleon’s middling reception (versus the outpouring of love this got), I think we all know where the other votes are going. Have you heard the buzz for this film (and the absolute joy when it got nominated)? This is absolutely the other contender, even if there’s no precursor evidence to back it up.  This is the prime underdog that could shock us all and win this category.

Spoiler Alert: Napoleon. In the ‘classic’ version of this category, this would be the favorite. It’s the classiest film, being a big-budget period piece from Ridley Scott. However the effects are very supporting, the film did not do well overall with nominations and it couldn’t even win the Supporting Effects award at VES. Nothing’s ever won this category having ‘supporting’ effects and losing that category without having lost to another nominee. This lost to something not even nominated. I don’t see support there. There’s no momentum for this and I can’t imagine people throwing stray votes this film’s way simply because it’s something they saw. If it weren’t for the stature, I’d expect Dead Reckoning to get more votes than this.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Godzilla Minus One

2. The Creator

3. Napoleon

4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

The Smart Choice: The Creator. It’s never Marvel, Mission Impossible feels unlikely given the defaulting to ‘best CGI’ for this category and I feel like we’d have an inkling if they were going to default to Napoleon. The Creator is a classy film a lot of people liked and did really well with the actual VFX artists, which is at least a decent amount of voters, and the secondary nomination means more people actually did watch this and liked it. It makes the most sense here, even though I am leaning toward the better story of Godzilla actually winning.

The Deal: I think it’s likely The Creator, but the love for Godzilla makes me think the tide has turned there. Because I have questions about how many people actually saw The Creator. I have the same questions about Godzilla, but the buzz for Godzilla is so positive that some people might just blindly support it just because everyone else is talking about it. That’s why I think that might end up being your winner in the end. The Creator makes the most sense on a pure effects level, and I still think that’s very much the ‘obvious’ choice here, but I also think the ‘screw it, I’m voting for Godzilla’ mindset might carry the day. And you know what? Fuck it, I’m taking Godzilla. Even if it loses, I won’t be truly disappointed, because The Creator is wholly deserving. It’ll be the difference between ‘stand up and cheer’ and ‘deserving golf clap’. I’m fine either way. But let’s be optimistic (like with Best Actress) and go for history being made.

The Vote: Godzilla Minus One

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Sound

The Creator

Maestro

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

My Personal Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Maestro
4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
5. The Creator

My Thoughts: So Mission Impossible — love that it’s here, think this kind of sound design is underappreciated at these awards shows. That said… lotta crashes and loud explosions and things of that sort and no real subtlety there. I don’t feel compelled to take it, as much as it deserves to be here. Same for The Creator. Nice and sci-fi, but not the kind of design that wowed me like other sci-fi films that’ve been here in recent years. Maestro — a lot of wonderful uses of sound and music there, but also not something I want to vote for. There’s only two options in this category. One is The Zone of Interest, whose use of sound is awe-inspiring and terrifying. Truly incredible work there, and honestly I’m about a millimeter away from voting for it. But Oppenheimer — man. It’s not just the bomb sequence. It’s the entire sound palette of that film, culminating at the scene in the gymnasium. Maybe over time I’ll admit the vote is Zone of Interest, but for now it’s gotta be Oppenheimer.

My Vote: Oppenheimer

Should Have Been Nominated: Killers of the Flower Moon

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: The Zone of Interest
• CAS: Oppenheimer
• MPSE: Oppenheimer (Dialogue+ADR, FX+Foley), Maestro (Music)

Most Likely to Win: Oppenheimer. I mean, do we need the justification? Won both guilds handily, gonna win a bunch of awards, Nolan films have won Sound three separate times (two of them swept, back when there were two awards) and, oh yeah, it’s about the ATOMIC BOMB.

The Competition: The Zone of Interest. The BAFTA win is huge, but you can’t call this a favorite. It’s a solid competitor (and clear alternate, for more sophisticated voters), but not the favorite.

Spoiler Alert: Maestro. Every Sound winner since 2008 (not counting the second half of a tie in 2012) has been nominated for Best Picture, and every winner since 2000 has had at least 4 overall nominations. If it’s not the first two, history says it’s this. Though getting past just Oppenheimer seems like a tall order, so I think you’re safe.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Oppenheimer

2. The Zone of Interest

3. Maestro

4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

5. The Creator

The Smart Choice: Oppenheimer. The title of the film alone tells you it’s the smart choice. Most years this would be one of the biggest locks of the night. But here, Zone of Interest will get votes given how integral sound is to the impact of that film, but it’s a 70/30 situation (even if it is a strong 30).

The Deal: This is Oppenheimer’s category to lose. All the data, history and momentum are in its favor. But, there is also a case to be made for Zone of Interest here. Don’t just immediately dismiss this as another Oppenheimer win (even though you should take it). Aside from the fact that Oppenheimer is flirting with rarified air in terms of number of overall wins (and of all the categories for it to lose out of nowhere, this is one of the big ones), and the fact that savvier voters (not the ones just superficially checking off a ballot) will look to what Zone of Interest does with sound and vote for that — in the past 25 years, the BAFTA winner for Sound has gone on to win at least one Sound Oscar (or the Sound Oscar, in the case of the past few years) 22/25 times. 22! And 2/3 misses were 2000 (the winner wasn’t nominated) and 2001. However… the third BAFTA miss was last year, where All Quiet (International Feature winner and Best Picture nominee) lost to Top Gun (winner at the sound guilds and mainstream film with higher box office grosses). So unfortunately the argument for Zone of Interest goes against it in the end. So while it’s not an insane place to try to catch one, given how few of those categories we have this year, I do think this is gonna be Oppenheimer.

The Vote: Oppenheimer

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3. Elemental
4. Nimona
5. Robot Dreams

My Thoughts: I love this category. They had other good options, but this category specifically is very good. Robot Dreams, I liked it a lot and I’m happy its nominated, but I’m not voting for it. Same for Nimona. Liked it a lot, but it’s not something that wins. Not with the top of this category being what it is. Elemental — this is very good but not great Pixar. In a weak year, I’d have been fine taking it. Here, it’s no more than a third choice. We’ve got an abnormally strong year at the top, so Pixar doesn’t contend like it usually does. Next — Across the Spider-Verse. It’s very good, but it’s not as unique and exciting as the first one, and while it would be a solid winner on its own… it’s up against Miyazaki. Come on, now. Miyazaki wins this.

My Vote: The Boy and the Heron

Should Have Been Nominated: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtler: Mutant Mayhem

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• PGA: Across the Spider-Verse
• BAFTA: Boy and the Heron
• BFCA: Across the Spider-Verse
• Globes: Boy and the Heron
• Annies: Across the Spider Verse (7)*, Boy and the Heron (2), Nimona (2), Robot Dreams (1)*

Most Likely to Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The numbers say this is the favorite. I’ll get into all the specifics down below, but, with PGA, BFCA and the most Annie wins, this has to be considered the favorite, especially with the first one having won and Miyazaki being 1/3 all-time in this category and his last win coming in 2002.

The Competition: The Boy and the Heron. Clearly this is one or the other. So you don’t have to worry too much outside of guessing which one is gonna win. The precursors are largely split, and the real difference between them is the Annie wins. So this is 51/49 and you know what the top two options are. It’s not so bad.

Spoiler Alert: Elemental. It hasn’t won any precursors, and people won’t feel the need to default to Pixar like they usually do because they have two other things they like to vote for instead. But they won’t have actually watched the other two films enough to get them to third. This is the only spoiler here.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2. The Boy and the Heron

3. Elemental

4. Nimona

5. Robot Dreams

The Smart Choice: I don’t know what to call the smart choice, because I see two schools of thinking on this. My gut tells me the smart choice is The Boy and the Heron. The data tells me the smart choice is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I’m gonna leave both here for now. I can’t choose one (which probably means the answer is Spider-Verse and I just don’t want to admit it).

The Deal: It’s tough when this category is competitive, because it happens so infrequently that there’s no help in the precursors. This category has existed since 2001 and there have only been 5 years where the precursors didn’t point out an obvious winner. And even then, one year was when Lego Movie wasn’t nominated, one had a film (Cars) sweep the precursors and lose and two others involved Toy Story and Encanto, which, no matter how muddled those precursors were, we all knew they were winning. The only truly muddled year we’ve had was 2012, where Wreck-It Ralph and Brave split everything. But those were both Disney/Pixar. This year is neither. And individually, all the precursors have great historical records because the obvious choice wins most of the time. The numbers and history don’t help you. It’s really just a matter of pros vs. cons and which scenario feels more likely to you.

For Spider-Verse — it’s the mainstream choice. First one won, was beloved. This one made a lot of money and was a huge hit. Not as loved as the first one and also half a movie, but still liked enough. Precursors say it’s the likelier choice. The potential drawback with it is the Two Towers effect (where Fellowship did really well at the Oscars and Two Towers missed a bunch and didn’t really do so well because they knew Return of the King was coming and waited to go all in on that). Now — Boy and the Heron — obviously it’s Miyazaki and he’s hugely respected and the film is loved by almost everyone who’s seen it. But also — he’s been nominated three times and only won once Spirited Away. Howl’s Moving Castle and The Wind Rises both lost this category. So just because it’s Miyazaki does not mean it’s an automatic win. What’s interesting to me is that the two ‘American’-centric precursors went to the obvious studio film in Spider-Verse and the two more international bodies went for Boy and the Heron. And the animators — they look for specific technical things when they vote, so I understand those awards going the way they did.

To me, the question is — does the fact that everyone saw Spider-Verse (and maybe not everyone watched Boy and the Heron) tip the scales in its favor? Or, does the limited voting body of the Academy skew things toward the ‘classier’ effort in Boy and the Heron? I think I just don’t want to admit to myself that Spider-Verse is gonna win this, but I keep thinking it’s Boy and the Heron. So, while I’ll admit the likely winner is Spider-Verse (and that is gonna be #1 on my Scorecard), my personal ballot is going with Boy and the Heron. I’m okay being disappointed here if it loses, since I sort of know where it’s going already.

The Vote: The Boy and the Heron

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best International Feature

Io Capitano (Italy)

Perfect Days (Japan)

Society of the Snow (Spain)

The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)

The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Perfect Days (Japan)
3. Society of the Snow (Spain)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
5. Io Capitano (Italy)

My Thoughts: This felt like a very uninspiring category when they announced it. But, having now watched most of the shortlist, I get it. We’ve also had an abnormally strong series of lineups in the past few years, which skews the opinion. I’ll start by saying it’s pretty obvious what the winner is. The Zone of Interest wins this by a mile. So we’re not gonna waste time on that. I’d rather talk about the other nominees, since most people will overlook the rest of the category once they know what’s winning. We’ll start with Society of the Snow, which is nominated elsewhere. It’s very good. The kind of film that I don’t feel even really needs to be here (just because it almost doesn’t feel ‘foreign’, even though it 100% is). But it’s a fine piece of work. Perfect Days, meanwhile, is an absolute delight of a movie. So simple and wonderful. Weird to think that it’s a Wim Wenders film, but also somehow it fits. The Teachers’ Lounge is a quietly great movie about what happens when good intentions end badly. It’s fascinating to watch how everyday human interaction can be so tense and dramatic. Good movie. And Io Capitano — very solid piece of work. Matteo Garrone is no stranger to a good movie, so it’s no surprise how well-made this one is. Overall, the category is worth seeing, even if it has such an obvious winner at the head of it.

My Vote: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Should Have Been Nominated: I don’t have one yet, but maybe once I finish the shortlist.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Like every single year since 2011, there’s nothing to talk about here because we know what’s going to win. (No joke, there’s only been 2 years in the past 12 where we even had to go “I guess this other one could win, but it’s probably going to be this one.”)

Most Likely to Win: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom). It’s winning. We know this.

The Competition: Perfect Days (Japan). I know logic says Society of the Snow is second choice with the Makeup nomination and VFX shortlisting. But the only way you beat a film like Zone of Interest here is if people rally around another film they love. Nobody ‘loves’ Society of the Snow. Some people love this. Plus, as someone who remembers the colossal upset of Departures over Waltz with Bashir in 2009, I feel like it’s established that Japan is always a threat in this category. I don’t think it happens, but it seems pretty clear it’s going to be this if it’s anything.

Spoiler Alert: Society of the Snow (Spain). This is the only other film in the category with another nomination. It’s gotta be this. But if you’re seriously considering anything here, you’ve already gone too far astray.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

2. Perfect Days (Japan)

3. Society of the Snow (Spain)

4. Io Capitano (Italy)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)

The Smart Choice: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) is winning this. It’s the biggest lock of the night (on a night with a lot of locks).

The Deal: It’s gonna win. You don’t need to have followed the Oscars for 20 years to know it.

The Vote: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Documentary

20 Days in Mariupol

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

My Personal Rankings:

1. To Kill a Tiger
2. Four Daughters
3. The Eternal Memory
   
4. 20 Days in Mariupol
5. Bobi Wine: The People’s President

My Thoughts: Decent enough category, but it’s missing that real galvanizing choice at the top that a lot of these categories have. Bobi Wine didn’t do a whole lot for me. There’s something about documentaries like this that just feel so… prepared. I want the material to interest me and make me feel something, not the filmmaking leading me to feel that way. 20 Days in Mariupol also, in a different way, didn’t do much for me as compared to the other three. It’s a good doc, but I just liked the other three more. Eternal Memory — really touching, really beautiful film. Four Daughters — brilliant concept and sneaky wonderful in what it does and how it does it. But the film that captured my attention and feelings the most was To Kill a Tiger. It’s very close between that and Four Daughters, but To Kill a Tiger is the one that landed most with me, so that’s my vote.

My Vote: To Kill a Tiger

Should Have Been Nominated: Beyond Utopia

– – – – –

The Analysis:

There are precursors, but I can’t think of a year in the past 20 where precursors have indicated how this category was gonna go. It’s more just looking at the nominees and knowing where the momentum is and how the Academy usually votes.

Most Likely to Win: 20 Days in Mariupol. This is the one, from the start, that was positioned as the winner. And most years, that’s how this goes. It’s not as obvious a choice as other years, but it’s a favorite. It’s Navalny and Icarus instead of Summer of Soul or O.J. Made in America. Not a lock, but the likely outcome.

The Competition: Four Daughters. The caveat in this category is ‘if they actually watched all the nominees, you wouldn’t know what to do’. But the majority of people never actually do watch the nominees. This one was shortlisted in International Feature, which is enough for me to say it has support out there. Plus, it’s got that emotional hook that will work for some voters. I feel comfortable with this as a second choice (even though, if it’s not #1, it could go as deep as 4).

Spoiler Alert: The Eternal Memory. Big emotional hook that will resonate with voters. The drawback is — how many people actually took the time to watch all the nominees? So, I’m okay with this as 3. Could see it winning, don’t think it’s a favorite, but it’s a contender.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol

2. Four Daughters

3. The Eternal Memory

4. Bobi Wine: The People’s President

5. To Kill a Tiger

The Smart Choice: 20 Days in Mariupol. Unless you’ve got a sure thing, the obvious choice is usually the one that’s been pegged as the presumed winner. Looking back at this category, the one doc that has been the presumptive winner throughout the race has won (occasionally there are two choices there, but usually there’s ne presumed favorite). Without a galvanizing top choice this year, you pretty much have to default to that logic. Also because a lot of voters, when you get to categories like this, likely won’t have watched most nominees and, if the bother voting at all, will likely go “what’s gonna win,” and vote for that. So that makes this the smartest option.

The Deal: Truly, if people bothered to watch all the nominees, this wouldn’t be so automatic. But 20 Days in Mariupol would still likely be the winner either way, which makes it the best choice. If it doesn’t win, my guess is Four Daughters and Eternal Memory are the likeliest options. I’d love it if To Kill a Tiger had a chance, but that would upend years of voting habits. And Bobi Wine — you’d have known if that had a real shot here, I feel. Maybe it happens, and I’ll catch that 4 if it does, but I don’t see it. I think Mariupol is the obvious choice here in a category that usually falls to the obvious choice.

The Vote: 20 Days in Mariupol

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Documentary Short

The ABCs of Book Banning

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop

Nai Nai & Wai Po

My Personal Rankings:

1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. Nai Nai & Wai Po
4. The Barber of Little Rock
5. Island in Between

My Thoughts: Pretty whelmed by the crop of docs we had this year, though I think the category did okay with what they had. I didn’t feel one way or another about Island in Between or Barber of Little Rock, so those two are at the bottom for me. Nai Nai and Wai Po was very cute, but I’m not really sure what the point of it all was. Still, I’d have voted for it if there was nothing else, so there’s that. Last Repair Shop I like as a concept, because it highlights the decline of music in schools and kids being taught to play and love music. But it’s ABCs of Book Banning for me. It’s a vital issue that not enough people are talking about (because of the sheer amount of awful things going on in the world at any given time) and it handles it in a really beautiful way, having the children (the ones actually affected by it) discuss the issue intellectually, while also highlighting passages from the books that are banned (clearly hinting at the true reason all of them are banned). It’s beautiful, and that’s my choice.

My Vote: The ABCs of Book Banning

Should Have Been Nominated: Deciding Vote

– – – – –

The Analysis:

There’s no strategy here. All this category requires is looking at what each of the films are about, seeing how they usually vote (which tends to be a combination of ‘what’s the most hot button issue that we can ‘fix’ by shedding light on it’ and/or ‘which one made me feel something’). You can usually reason your way through it pretty easily.

Most Likely to Win: The ABCs of Book Banning. The issue is in the title, and that’s gonna go a long way. If they watch them all, this isn’t a gimme. If they’re just looking at the titles, this is the favorite. Based on what usually wins here, I feel confident saying this is the most likely winner.

The Competition: Nai Nai & Wai Po. You could put this third, but I also think ‘cute short about two grandmothers who are best friends and live together’ is definitely the alternative option for those looking for less ‘serious’ fare. The past two winners were about elephants and a basketball player. This fits that trend.

Spoiler Alert: The Last Repair Shop. This is sort of the middle ground between the top two options. It’s a ‘subject’ film, since it’s ultimately about the decline of music being taught in schools, but it’s also kind of an entertainment option, too, as it’s about the people who work in a repair shop who fix musical instruments. It’s not The White Helmets, is what I’m saying. The other options don’t really seem like they’re gonna get the votes over these three. I think your winner is coming from this group. Which is good, since if you catch a 3 on a Shorts category, you’re not gonna be super mad about it.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The ABCs of Book Banning

2. Nai Nai & Wai Po

3. The Last Repair Shop

4. The Barber of Little Rock

5. Island in Between

The Smart Choice: The ABCs of Book Banning. I think it is. Nai Nai and Wai Po is also kinda smart, the way the past two years have gone, but I also didn’t see an ‘issue’ type film at the top of the previous two categories. The ABCs of Book Banning is a title right up there with “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)” for spelling out the issue. So I feel like we’re gonna revert back to how this category usually goes, and that’s the one that most people are aware of and the issue that will be too good for them to pass up.

The Deal: Remember — this category is never about what the best actual documentary is. It’s either ‘what issue can we fix’ or ‘what moved me the most’ (with a splash of ‘what is everyone saying is going to win’, which is the undercurrent of most categories). That being said — I feel like they’re either going to go for the one about how banning books (e.g. banning freedom of speech) is bad and how we shouldn’t do it or the one that’s about two adorable grandmothers living together. The ‘teaching music in schools is dying’ one is there and could win, but I think your best bets are one of those first two. Personally, I’m gonna go with the book banning one, but I won’t be remotely surprised if the cuteness of the (Disney-backed. Don’t forget that part) doc about the grandmothers ends up beating it. There’s only so much analysis you can do in the Shorts categories. You just kinda have to pick a lane and hope for the best.

The Vote: The ABCs of Book Banning

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Live Action Short

The After

Invincible

Knight of Fortune

Red, White and Blue

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

My Personal Rankings:

1. Red, White and Blue
2. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
3. Knight of Fortune
4. The After
5. Invincible

My Thoughts: The shortlist this year felt really strong, and the final category feels very… not. Very average. I remember watching Invincible, going, “This wasn’t for me… I bet they’ll nominate it.” Sometimes you just know. The After is here because it has money behind it. The short itself works in the sense that it was designed to work that way. Ultimately it feels a bit hollow, because it’s really built around two moments — the shock moment at the beginning and the emotional moment at the end. Ultimately it’s an ‘ehh’ for me. (Now’s my chance to say that if you have a chance to check out An Avocado Pit, Bienvenidos a Los Angeles or Yellow from the shortlist, do so. They’re great shorts.) Next — Knight of Fortune. The token quirky, foreign short of the category. It works. It’s fun, it hits all the beats. But… seen it before. It didn’t wow me to where I want to vote for it. Next — Henry Sugar. It’s Wes Anderson doing Wes Anderson things. This one feels more like a technical exercise to me than most of his films. So, while I like it a lot, I don’t feel much of an emotional connection to it past the desire for Wes Anderson to win an Oscar at some point. The one short in the category that really did land for me is Red, White and Blue. That short fucking lands. There’s always a short about abortion that makes it on the shortlist, and they never get nominated. But they also don’t do what this short does. That’s the one that actually made me have an emotional reaction, and that’s my vote.

My Vote: Red, White and Blue

Should Have Been Nominated: An Avocado Pit, Bienvenidos a Los Angeles, Yellow

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Most Likely to Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Everyone knows this is Wes Anderson. It’s the only short immediately identifiable to them (and is also Netflix, which I’ll mention again in a minute) and, after years of Wes Anderson losing Oscar races (including Screenplay for Grand Budapest, which people thought would finally be his moment), it’s possible they may finally look to get him something. It’s also a really good short. It makes sense as an all around favorite, even if it’s not a lock to win.

The Competition: Knight of Fortune. Oh yeah. If it’s not Wes, it’s the quirky foreign short that will absolutely tickle a lot of voters’ fancies. The other three feel unlikely to me, based on how this category usually goes. This one, while not a slam dunk kind of winner in the vein of An Irish Goodbye or The Neighbors’ Window, feels very much in the vein of the stuff they tend to go for. I’d be a bit surprised if something outside of these top two won, just based on what I’ve seen them do in this category for 20 years now.

Spoiler Alert: Red, White and Blue. I’d normally have The After here, as the big bully in the category, backed by the big studio putting a lot of money behind it even though no one particularly cared for it… but Henry Sugar is also Netflix and I think they know they have a better shot there. It’s like when Miramax would have two Best Picture nominees. They knew where to spend the money because they knew which nominee was more likely to win. So I don’t think The After is gonna get the votes. This, however — if people watch all five nominees, I’d be surprised if this didn’t get a reasonable amount of votes. Not saying it’ll win, but if you gave the entire category to (x) number of people to vote on, I would be shocked if this didn’t end up in the top three for votes.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Knight of Fortune

2. The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar

3. Red, White and Blue

4. The After

5. Invincible

The Smart Choice: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Gotta be, right? Wes Anderson, big profile, Netflix, star power — what’s the negative there? The only real negative to it is ‘enough people actually watched all the shorts and preferred something else’. And based on what I know about this voting body… I’m gonna stick with this as the smart choice and let something else beat me.

The Deal: Henry Sugar or Knight of Fortune are the overwhelming favorites here, based on how they usually vote in this category. I’d call it 55/45, with Henry Sugar ahead just because of all the notoriety there and some people maybe looking to get Wes Anderson an Oscar (which — him winning here would be like Stanley Kubrick’s Oscar being for Special Effects or Chaplin’s Oscar being for Score). I feel like both of those are the main contenders here, and you can’t really go wrong voting for either, even though, just glancing at it, it feels hard to vote against Henry Sugar. (I’ll also tell you — I’m not gonna be shocked if I see Red, White and Blue pull off the upset, because that means people did actually watch all the nominees.)

The Vote: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

My Personal Rankings:

1. Our Uniform
2. War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
3. Ninety-Five Senses
4. Letter to a Pig
5. Pachyderme

My Thoughts: They did decently with this category from what I felt was a fairly uninspiring shortlist. There were definitely a few other options I thought would’ve really made this category incredible, but what’s here works fine. Pachyderme was not for me. Looked nice, just… felt like a lot of other shorts I’ve seen that weren’t nominated in recent years. Letter to a Pig looked really great but narratively didn’t get all the way there for me. War Is Over — I liked it as a short but didn’t like it as a Beatles tie-in, if that makes sense. I thought it worked quite well on its own and didn’t need the needle drop. But it’s one of those shorts designed to work for most people, so I get it. Ninety-Five Senses I really liked a lot. Wouldn’t vote for it unless I had to, but it’s a really nice piece of work. I’d probably take War Is Over above it, but it’s a good piece of work. My vote, however, is Our Uniform, which I thought was the most unique piece of animation in the category and the one short I watched and actually felt excited by. I like when an animated short makes me feel something (more so than the emotional element of whatever story they’re telling).

My Vote: Our Uniform

Should Have Been Nominated: 27, Wild Summon

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Most Likely to Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko. Remember what I said in Documentary Short about a title doing all the work? How you gonna avoid this one? Anyone randomly checking off a ballot without having seen the shorts (which is a lot of people, trust me), they’re gonna see that title (and remember the majority age demographic here) and it’s such an easy box to check, sight unseen. And the short is designed to be exactly the type of thing that wins.

The Competition: Letter to a Pig. A bit heady for this category, I feel, but great. They typically like surface-level emotion (like in the previous short). This film takes a very internal approach to the Holocaust and dealing with generational trauma. Given the rest of the category, this seems like it’s the alternate choice, but knowing how they usually vote, it feels like a tall order.

Spoiler Alert: Ninety-Five Senses. The director of Napoleon Dynamite made this. And is an Oscar winner. Just FYI. It’s also a really nice-looking short that a lot of people are gonna like if they watch all the nominees. This will get votes on its own. Tough call to say it’ll win, but I’m also not gonna rule it out (especially since Our Uniform is the type of short that never wins here, and Pachyderme doesn’t have the emotional element that’ll pull enough votes to contend).

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

2. Letter to a Pig

3. Ninety-Five Senses

4. Our Uniform

5. Pachyderme

The Smart Choice: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko. The title jumps out, it’s the most ‘feel good’ of all the nominees. It just feels like the one most people will throw a vote toward, whether they watch all the nominees or not.

The Deal: It’s a Shorts category in a year without a clear winner. That means anything can happen. But we really haven’t had anything that insane happen in a long time. Just glancing at this category, it feels like War Is Over and Letter to a Pig are the two most likely winners. War Is Over is the overt, surface level crowd-pleaser animation that typically becomes a favorite, and Letter to a Pig is the deeper short that will appeal to those who think the other choice is a little ‘simple’. Ninety-Five Senses feels like a spoiler that could win, but also doesn’t feel like something I’m going to assume will. I don’t know if I’m at the point where I can assume this voting body will embrace something as complex as Letter to a Pig. War Is Over is the exact level of depth that I expect them to vote for in this category, and it’s got John Lennon all over it. I don’t see how I can go against that.

The Vote: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – –

Here’s a breakdown of how I see each film performing:

Oppenheimer
13 nominations

Will Win: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Sound
Will Likely Win: 
Could Win: Adapted Screenplay
Won’t Win: Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

This is gonna win the majority of the awards. Picture and Director are gimmes, Actor is almost assured, Supporting Actor is a lock. Editing, Cinematography and Score are near-locks and Sound is very, very likely. That’s 8 wins. That would be the most since Slumdog Millionaire. Everything Everywhere and Gravity both won 7 and a few others won 6. History says this should end up in the area of 7 wins, but I can’t figure which of these it’s gonna lose. Actor or Sound make the most sense to me (though both would be somewhat surprising). Sure seems like we’re looking at 8, though I’ve been wrong on this before and seen things come in lighter than expected. Don’t be shocked if 7 is the final total, but everything I’m seeing makes it seem like 8. 9 is also possible if this pulls off Adapted Screenplay and doesn’t lose a stray one somewhere. I’m expecting 8 though. That feels right.

 

Poor Things
11 nominations

Will Win: 
Will Likely Win: Production Design, Costume Design
Could Win: Actress, Makeup & Hairstyling
Won’t Win: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score

To start — it’s not gonna win the majority of its nominations. If you’re gonna look for anything in that bottom row to come completely out of nowhere, maybe I’d say Cinematography, but that would be shocking, to say the least. It’s really only in contention for 4 categories. So 4 wins is the absolute maximum for this. Actress is 50/50, and Makeup is sort of 40/60 (likelier if it wins Actress). It seems like it’ll win Production Design and Costumes is also likely, but not assured. I’d be very surprised if this ended up with 0 wins. 1 win seems assured, with Production Design. 2 wins also seems likely, since I’d be surprised it it managed to lose Costumes, Actress and Makeup. Though, all of those are possible. I’d also be slightly surprised if it manages to win all three of those as well. So, 4 wins and 1 win — unlikely, but possible. I think you’re looking at 2 wins or 3 wins here as the sweet spot, with the most likely results being Production Design, plus Actress and/or Costumes. I feel like it’s likely to lose Makeup to Maestro almost regardless of what happens elsewhere. So, I’m putting this down for probably 2, but maybe 3.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon
10 nominations

Will Win: 
Will Likely Win: Actress
Could Win: 
Won’t Win: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design, Costume Design

Like The Irishman, you’re looking at a lot of nominations and nothing to show for it. But, Irishman got fully shut out. This actually is in contention for Actress. Gladstone is technically a slim favorite, to boot, even though Emma Stone looms very large. Everything else would be surprising, to say the least. I don’t see any category it can even really upset in, because any win it can get signals an outright rejection of Oppenheimer. 6 of its nominations are categories Oppenheimer is set to win. And Song — well, we know what’s happening there. And Production Design and Costumes are clearly between two films, neither of which is this one. So this is 0 wins or 1 win, depending on whether or not it wins Actress.

 

Barbie
8 nominations

Will Win: Song (“What Was I Made For?”)
Will Likely Win: 
Could Win: Adapted Screenplay, Song (“I’m Just Ken”), Production Design, Costume Design
Won’t Win: Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

This for sure won’t go home empty-handed. It’ll win Song (the only question is which song it ends up winning for). Past that, it’s not the favorite anywhere. It’s not winning either acting award, nor will it win Picture (and it obviously can only win Song once, unless there’s a tie, which would be amazing). So the maximum amount of wins here is 4. But, Production Design seems unlikely, and with the Best Picture favorite and American Fiction against it in Screenplay, that feels unlikely, albeit possible. Costumes is really the only place I can see this potentially winning. So I’m pencilling this in for 1 win guaranteed, 2 wins possibly and 3 wins if it overperforms (which would include a surprise in Screenplay or Production Design)

 

Maestro
7 nominations

Will Win:
Will Likely Win: Makeup & Hairstyling
Could Win: 
Won’t Win: Picture, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound

If it weren’t for Makeup, this would be a complete shut out. There is at least one Best Picture nominee every year that is guaranteed to get shut out (because they respect it and sort of move it along with the others in a very ‘no child left behind’ kind of way, but it’s clear they don’t actually like it enough to give it anything). Cinematography and Sound happen in absolute shockers, but outside of that, this will win nothing except Makeup. And even Makeup is not a gimme, because Poor Things is also right there. So this is 1 win likely, 0 wins the only alternative, barring a shock outcome somewhere.

 

American Fiction
5 nominations

Will Win:
Will Likely Win: Adapted Screenplay
Could Win:  
Won’t Win: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Score

This was almost a shut out, until it managed to become the favorite in Screenplay. I’m still not convinced it happens (since it’s up against both Oppenheimer and Barbie), but it seems likeliest going in, so there’s that. This is either 1 win or 0 wins.

 

The Holdovers
5 nominations

Will Win: Supporting Actress
Will Likely Win: 
Could Win: Actor, Original Screenplay
Won’t Win: Picture, Editing

Supporting Actress is a lock, and it’s legitimately in contention Original Screenplay (though not the favorite) and nominally in contention for Actor (though unlikely). Picture and Editing won’t happen. So this is 1 win guaranteed, with the outside possibility of 2 wins (if it can upset Anatomy of a Fall in Screenplay).

 

The Zone of Interest
5 nominations

Will Win: International Feature
Will Likely Win:
Could Win: Adapted Screenplay, Sound
Won’t Win: Picture, Director

It’s going to win International Feature. Past that, it all seems unlikely. Picture and Director aren’t happening, Screenplay would be one of the upsets of the century and Sound would be a surprise (but is the only real possibility I can see happening). I’d pencil this in for 1 win. A second win would be overperforming.

 

Anatomy of a Fall
4 nominations

Will Win: 
Will Likely Win: Original Screenplay
Could Win: 
Won’t Win: Picture, Director, Actress

This should win Screenplay fairly easily (but it’s not a lock), and isn’t in contention for anything else. 1 win (though 0 wins is possible if Holdovers upsets this in Screenplay).

 

Napoleon
3 nominations

Will Win: 
Will Likely Win: 
Could Win: Visual Effects
Won’t Win: Production Design, Costume Design

I can’t see this competing in Production Design or Costumes, and Visual Effects is possible just because it’s the most-nominated film in the category and typically that usually leads to a win, but even that feels unlikely. I’m saying this is 0 wins. If it’s 1, it’s Visual Effects. But expect 0.

 

The rest:

(This might be the smallest version of this section I’ve ever had.)

• Either The Creator or Godzilla Minus One should win Visual Effects. I’m leaning toward Godzilla.
• The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will win Animated Feature. My hert says Boy and the Heron but my head says Spider-Verse.
• 20 Days in Mariupol will likely win Documentary Feature. Otherwise almost anything can win there.
• Documentary Short is likely to be The ABCs of Book Banning, but don’t rule out Nai Nai & Wai Po.
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar looks like the favorite in Live Action Short (with Knight of Fortune the likeliest alternative).
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko is probably winning Animated Short. If it’s not that, it’s probably Letter to a Pig.

– – – – –

Final tally as I see it:

• Oppenheimer — 8 wins (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Sound)
• Poor Things — 2 wins (Production Design, Costume Design)
• American Fiction — 1 win (Adapted Screenplay)
• Anatomy of a Fall — 1 win (Original Screenplay)
• Barbie — 1 win (Song)
• Godzilla Minus One — 1 win (Visual Effects)
• The Holdovers — 1 win (Supporting Actress)
• Killers of the Flower Moon — 1 win (Actress)
• Maestro — 1 win (Makeup & Hairstyling)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — 1 win (Animated Feature)
• 20 Days in Mariupol — 1 win (Documentary Feature)
• The Zone of Interest — 1 win (International Feature)
• And then, The ABCs of Book Banning in Documentary Short, The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar in Live Action Short and War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko in Animated Short.

– – – – –

It wouldn’t be an Oscar year for me if I didn’t do two things: look up some weird stats that only I care about and end this article with some sort of statement on either the race or my methodology.

This year’s stat is about me — I’ve covered the Oscars here on this site since 2010. And even though I’ve only used the Scorecard Ballot since 2014, I have ranked each nominee’s chances of winning the entire time (save the 3 Shorts categories of 2010). Which means I have Scorecard grades for 306 categories. And for those 306 categories, my #1 has won 230 times, my #2 has won 57 times, my #3 has won 9 times, my #4 has won 8 times and my #5 has won 2 times. So, since 2010, my #1 ranked nominee has won 75.1% of the time and either my #1 or #2 has won 93.7% of the time.

There are only 19 categories where the 3, 4 or 5 won, and 8 of those came before 2013 (when I wasn’t seriously ranking anything or nearly as good as doing this as I am now). In the past decade, I’ve only had 11 total categories where a #3, #4 or #5 has won. And 5 of those were Shorts categories Doc Short 2015 was a 3, Live Action Short 2016 was a 4, Live Action Short 2018 was a 3, Doc Short 2020 was a 5 and Animated Short 2021 was a 4). Meaning, in the past decade there have only 6 measurable categories (i.e. precursors) where I’ve gone 3 or higher. That’s insane to me. (Also, for accountability purposes, the 6 categories were: a 4 in Picture 2015, a 5 in Visual Effects 2015, a 3 in Sound Editing 2016, a 4 in Actress 2020, a 4 in Song 2020, and a 3 in Production Design 2022.) That kind of accuracy — that’s what I’m striving for when I do this each year. I’m trying to be as close as possible to what’s gonna happen so I can help you be as informed as possible when picking your personal ballot.

Which brings me to the closing statement part — I’m just gonna keep doing what I’ve been doing these past few years, which is keep it simple. I can’t overthink this. Use the precursors, use your experience, trust your gut. It’s gonna go how it’s gonna go. Essentially, the bottom line is: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Race.

Let’s see how it goes.

– – – – – – – – – –

http://bplusmovieblog.com