Oscars 2024: The B+ Nominations Ballot

Oh hey, it’s that time again. I’ll disappear for almost a whole year, but you know I’m gonna be here for this. This is my Super Bowl.

I will say, I bet the Academy is real glad to have Wicked up there this year because this is fixing to be the most niche set of nominees in a while. This year is gonna be for psychos like me and definitely not for casual viewers. And not even just financially speaking. I don’t care about that. I mean that four major (likely) Best Picture nominees are The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, Anora and The Substance. Wild.

Anyway, let’s get guessing.

Best Picture.

Since we moved back to 5+ nominees, only 4 films have been nominated without a single precursor. The PGA has, by itself, matched 119/136 nominees. With a set list of 10 now, it’s really just about figuring what (if anything) from the PGA gets left off and which foreign film gets on. Plus, with BAFTA and the other precursors starting to nominate the foreign films, there’s not much you need to do here. 8-10 correct is a reasonable outcome most of the time.

Precursors:

• Anora – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR, AFI
• A Complete Unknown – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR, AFI
• Conclave – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR, AFI
• Emilia Pérez – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, Globes*, AFI
• Wicked – PGA, SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR*, AFI, (BAFTA longlist)
• The Brutalist – PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*, AFI
• Dune Part Two – PGA, CCA, Globes, AFI, (BAFTA longlist)
• The Substance – PGA, CCA, Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• A Real Pain – PGA, Globes, NBR, AFI
• Nickel Boys – CCA, Globes, AFI
• Sing Sing – CCA, NBR, AFI
• September 5 – PGA, Globes
• Challengers – Globes
• Babygirl – NBR
• Furiosa – NBR
• Gladiator II – NBR
• Juror No. 2 – NBR
• Queer – NBR
• The Apprentice — (BAFTA longlist)
• Kneecap — (BAFTA longlist)

We’ve got at least eight or nine easy ones going for us, as per usual, so this shouldn’t be so bad.

Toss off the two that only got a shortlist and no precursor. There’s not enough real support to consider them legitimate possibilities. Babygirl, Furiosa, Gladiator, Juror No. 2 and Queer only got NBR, which isn’t a proper precursor (I only even mention them and AFI just because I didn’t do my usual write ups this year). Challengers only got the Globe nom and it’s pretty clear there’s no major support out there for it based on how precursors have gone. Which leaves 12 films for 10 spots. I’ll add All We Imagine as Light as the potential foreign film that sneaks on. So 13 for 10. Still, not bad.

Let’s go top down and get rid of the obvious stuff, so we can work with those final spots (which is where the work is anyway): Anora, Complete Unknown, Conclave and Emilia Pérez hit everything and AFI/NBR, so they’re on. That’s an easy four. Wicked hit everything but BAFTA and is a monster hit guaranteed to get like 6+ nominations, so that’s on. The Brutalist clearly is on, having only missed SAG, which can only nominate five films, so that’s six. Dune hit most things and is gonna get a bunch of tech nominations — easy on. Seven. Next, The Substance. PGA, CCA, Globes, acting frontrunner, major film, hard to see that being left off. In one of those flexible category years? Absolutely likely to be left off because it could be polarizing. Set list? Don’t see it. So eight. Now’s where it gets interesting.

We’ve got five films for two slots. Let’s run them down:

• A Real Pain — PGA and Globes, made the two ‘film’ lists (NBR/AFI), Supporting Actor nomination definite and likely Screenplay nod (and I have to guess some people think Actor is possible too). Feels like a safe choice, but definitely not a gimme. It’s likable enough that I can see them doing it but also potentially slight enough that I can also see them ignoring it (mostly because the recent history of the Academy has skewed less ‘generic white people film’ when you get toward the bottom of the list). Interestingly enough, the only precursor comp for this is Zone of Interest. Thematically you can do with that what you will, but also interesting that, in 15 years, that’s the only one that had this path.
• Nickel Boys — CCA and Globes only, plus AFI. Not too strong. The CCA/Globes only combo hasn’t produced a lot of nominees, just Selma and Room. Room also managed NBR, so even that had more overt support than this has. Selma’s the only other nominee with this exact set of precursors. Not the most promising comp (and obviously opens the door to unnecessary comparisons for reasons that should not matter), but it did make it, so you’ve at least got precedent. The lack of overall support concerns me though. I worry not enough people saw this to vote for it.
• Sing Sing — CCA only, plus NBR and AFI. Oddly, that combination has produced the most number of nominees of the films remaining. Nightmare Alley, Tree of Life, Winter’s Bone and A Serious Man. And you know what all  (or most) of those films have in common? Years with a set list of ten. This feels firmly in contention, especially with an acting nomination in the bag, a possible second and a potential writing nomination.
• September 5 — Like A Real Pain, it has PGA and the Globes, also sharing the Zone of Interest comp. The PGA nomination was a slight surprise to me, and shows me that there’s a legitimate chance this makes it on (and makes it more of a play in Screenplay and possibly Editing too. Though I wouldn’t go near Editing unless I’m guessing it here). I’m still iffy on whether or not I guess it, but you have to take it seriously. (The PGA also did go 10/10 last year, so it’s not like it never happens. Reasonably speaking, this might be the safe choice.)
• All We Imagine as Light — no precursors, but it did manage the Globes Director nomination and is lauded as one of the best films of the year. Foreign films have had an increased presence on the Picture list lately, so you have to look at ones that can get on, especially without a solid consensus of precursors at the bottom. Technically speaking, only just four films got nominated without the main five precursors: The Blind Side, Amour, Phantom Thread and Drive My Car. Two of those were foreign. However, both also got BAFTA Director nominations. Which means you saw them coming from somewhere. So as much as I thought for a while we’d get this on, it’s looking unlikely, since we don’t really have that marker to show the kind of support I’d want to see here.

All things being equal here, the films that make the most sense to me as nominees are A Real Pain and Sing Sing. They feel safest, even though empirically speaking they aren’t the safest. I feel confident I’ll get at least one of them right, though, so that’s why I’m doing it. September 5 is my current third choice (just because of the PGA) and first on if something is left off. Nickel Boys would be next up (though I’d still feel we’d more likely get a foreign film over it, just given history, even though I do also see it as a legitimate possibility for a spot) and then there’s the out of nowhere foreign choice, which, if it’s not All We Imagine as Light, could be I’m Still Here, which seems like it could get an Actress nomination. I wouldn’t rule that past them. Hard to guess, but possible.

I’m gonna stick with the easy two and see what happens. I’m past the point of losing sleep over this, plus the more I think about it, the more I’m gonna start shifting things toward what I’d like to see (which may just be leaving off the ones I’d like to see so as not to be disappointed if and when they get left off). If I can get 9/10, I’ll be happy. I’ll live with 8/10 if those final two end up being fun choices I can root for (Nickel Boys, All We Imagine as Light). I also must mention the notion that something like The Substance can get left off and we get three of these on. That is also very possible and I’m not sure that’s something people will talk about because it’s too easy to assume it gets included. But we forget how recently stuff got wildly left off (it’s the reason they went back to the set list of 10 in the first place. Remember when everyone was certain about One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey and they just straight up got left off? That shit still happens).

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

The Substance

Wicked

First Alternate: September 5

Dark Horse: Nickel Boys

Surprise: All We Imagine as Light, I’m Still Here 

Shocker: The Apprentice, Challengers, Nosferatu

Don’t Guess: Babygirl, Blitz, Civil War, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Juror No. 2, Queer, The Room Next Door

Would love to see: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

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Director.

The most important thing you need to know here: only 8 times ever has the DGA matched 5/5. It’s only happened twice in the past 25 years and three times in the past 40. They’ve also been 4/5 seventeen times since 2000, which means that they’re mostly going to get it and you just need to spot the person who’s gonna be left out. BAFTA has been reliable in pointing out who the person is that’s gonna get on in that person’s place. Plus, only 4 directors this past decade have been nominated without a precursor, and 3 of them came from films with Picture nominations.

You know the players, it’s just a matter of picking the right lineup.

Precursors:

• Audiard – DGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Baker – DGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Berger – DGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Corbet – DGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*
• Fargeat – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Kapadia – DGA First Time, Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• Villeneuve – BAFTA, CCA
• Mangold — DGA
• Ross – DGA First Time, CCA
• Chu – CCA, NBR*
• Fingscheidt — (BAFTA longlist)
• Kuras — (BAFTA longlist)
• Rohrwacher — (BAFTA longlist)

Audiard, Baker, Berger and Corbet have hit everything, and their films are consistently all over the precursor lists and basically locks for Best Picture. Seems odd that one of them would be left off. So I’ll start the list with those four. If any of them’s gonna be left off, I’d say it’s probably Baker, just given how much they’ve overlooked him and his films to this point, but let’s for now assume all four are on.

The fifth DGA nominee is Mangold, and he seems pretty clearly to be the omission. Could it happen? Sure. But he’s never been nominated (outside of writing), and I don’t know if the directors branch, of all branches, truly considers him anything more than a really good commercial film director (because they do often make that distinction. Consider what they thought of Spielberg for the first 20 years). The lack of a BAFTA shortlisting, even with that film getting a Picture nomination there tells me he’s likely on the outside looking in. Given how rare it is for the DGA to match, putting him on almost certainly means that someone else gets left off. And the idea that the voting is gonna be so tight that say, Sean Baker gets left off and then Mangold and someone else gets on… tough for me to believe to the extent that I guess it. The truth likely lies elsewhere. So, the question becomes, as it always does, who gets on instead?

My initial thought at the start of the season was that it was gonna be Kapadia, just because All We Imagine as Light felt like the kind of foreign darling that would make waves and those initial Globe nominations indicated it was that film for this year. But, with Emilia Pérez in the mix (and an unfortunate mindset about these things, like many groups have with women and minorities, of ‘we’ve already got one…‘), I didn’t see support materialize the way I’d hoped. Plus, it must be said — this is not only foreign but also directed by a woman. You know how hard it is to get a foreign nominee or a woman on the lineup most years? So I do remain leery about her actual chances, even though I’d be thrilled by it. She did get nominated by the DGA for “First Time Director,” which is not nothing, and the Globe nomination raised visibility and the BAFTA longlist at least means there are supporters there. She’s definitely got a shot at this.

Next, most notably, is Coralie Fargeat. The Substance is firmly in contention for a bunch of nominations and should be the frontrunner in Actress. She was nominated everywhere except the DGA, which is a great pedigree on top of the film’s stature. She’s the obvious fifth choice here, so the safe play is to make it her. I worry the film may be divisive for some people an that could leave her off, so I’m not seeing this as an automatic by any stretch.

Next — Denis Villeneuve. He’s got BAFTA and CCA and clearly a lot of fans, given his body of work the past 15 years. But, he wasn’t nominated the first time, and given how rare it is for someone to be nominated for a sequel in general, let alone not even being nominated for the first one… it’s never happened. The closest we get is George Miller for Fury Road, which isn’t even a direct sequel so much as it’s another film set in the same universe. So I don’t see how Denis gets on unless the branch has gotten way less ballsy and interesting than they’ve been the past near-decade.

Who else we got — Chu — the rest of the branches may fawn all over that, but the directors absolutely are gonna be the ones not to go anywhere near it. Dude only managed CCA. If he actually got nominated I would have to reconsider everything I know about the Academy. Ross — not sure the film has the support to get anywhere, which makes it tough to see him getting on. The people who vote didn’t nominate him (outside of DGA First Time Director), so I don’t see it happening. Not with the heavy hitters at the top of the race (and the film seemingly not being seen by enough people. Seems like they should’ve launched it around October, like Moonlight did, to give time for it to build). Everyone else wasn’t nominated anywhere and, at best, has a BAFTA shortlist. There’s no other major Picture contender (or major film contender) left to sneak on. So if you’re looking anywhere outside of the people already mentioned, it’s someone like Walter Salles for I’m Still Here. Again, possible, but hard to see actually coming through.

My feeling is that fifth spot is either gonna be Fargeat or Kapadia, and anything past that will be a surprise. I’ll take Fargeat for now, just because I haven’t seen the support for All We Imagine as Light come through the way I’d have liked (the way it came through for things like Triangle of Sadness, Cold War, Another Round, Drive My Car, etc, in recent years).

Best Director

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

First Alternate: Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Dark Horse: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Surprise: Denis Villeneuge, Dune: Part Two; RaMell Ross; Nickel Boys

Shocker: Luca Guadagnino, Challengers (or Queer); John M. Chu, Wicked; Walter Salles, I’m Still Here

Don’t Guess: Robert Eggers, Nosferatu; Nora Fingscheidt, The Outrun; Ellen Kuras, Lee; Mike Leigh, Hard Truths; George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga; Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Would love to see: Jane Schoenbrun, I Saw the TV Glow; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

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Actor.

Since 2001, only 3 actors have been nominated without precursors (all of whom you saw coming, none since 2014). SAG has never matched less than 3/5 ever (30 years now) and went 4/5 or 5/5 nine times this past decade. This one hasn’t been too difficult for a while.

Precursors:

• Brody – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*
• Chalamet – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Domingo – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Fiennes – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Craig – SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR*, (BAFTA longlist)
• Grant – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Stan (Apprentice) – BAFTA, Globes
• Stan (Different Man) – Globes*
• Eisenberg – Globes
• LaBelle – Globes
• Plemons – Globes
• Powell – Globes
• Law — (BAFTA longlist)
• Patel — (BAFTA longlist)
• Ben-Adir — (BAFTA longlist)

Unless we’re getting a real surprise, the list throughout the process has been Brody, Chalamet, Craig, Domingo and Fiennes. Given the films, the roles, and the actors’ statures, it’s hard to see anything else happening. Normally you’d see a strong film or a groundswell performance coming. But here… we kinda got a set list. Stan’s got two performances that seemingly will split votes and I don’t know which is more likely to get enough support (I guess it’s The Apprentice, just based off BAFTA, but keep in mind that A Different Man wasn’t shortlisted there, so there wasn’t the possibility of vote splitting like there is here), Grant never got top-level support (BAFTA isn’t as big as it might be otherwise, given the hometown status) and everyone else is fringe contending at best.

I don’t see a major foreign candidate hanging around, so I think the obvious list is gonna be the list. I’m not messing around here. I’ll just let someone else beat me and take chalk. It’s too good a list of chalk to try to outguess it. (But note, if it’s gonna be anyone left off, it’ll likely be Daniel Craig. He’s the only one that missed a precursor. And it’ll probably be Stan for The Apprentice who gets on in his place.)

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig, Queer

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

First Alternate: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Dark Horse: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Surprise: Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Hugh Grant, Heretic

Shocker: Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness; Glen Powell, Hit Man; Nicholas Hoult, Juror #2

Don’t Guess: Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two; Gabrielle LaBelle, Saturday Night; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Would love to see: Justice Smith, I Saw the TV Glow

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Actress.

Since 2001, only 5 actresses have been nominated without precursors (2 this decade). SAG has never matched below 3/5 and were 4/5 or 5/5 six times this decade. This one will occasionally produce a surprise, but given how (sadly) thin the fields usually are with legitimate candidates most years, you usually know who they’re gonna be.

Precursors:

• Erivo – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Gascon – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Madison – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Moore – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*
• Jean-Baptiste – BAFTA, CCA
• Kidman – Globes, NBR*, (BAFTA longlist)
• Adams – Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• Winslet – Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• Anderson – SAG, Globes
• Ronan — BAFTA
• Torres – Globes*
• Jolie – CCA, Globes
• Swinton – Globes
• Zendaya – Globes
• Abela — (BAFTA longlist)

Erivo, Gascon, Madison and Moore have hit everything, and I’m not sure I see enough to think they won’t all get on. If anyone’s left off there, it’s probably Madison, just because she’s not particularly established with them. But I don’t know if there’s enough out there to justify not guessing her. So, assuming we have the top four, who’s the fifth?

Let’s eliminate some people. Zendaya got no support, Swinton got no support and Ronan only has BAFTA, which is a hometown nomination (it’s like Meryl Streep getting a Globe nomination. Happens in her sleep). Winslet couldn’t even get the BAFTA nomination and Adams only has the Globes. To say any of those would be a shock would be an understatement. Anderson is a nice story, but got no major support. SAG is too populist to trust without other precursors and only an actual BAFTA nomination and not just a shortlist would’ve made me truly consider her as a possibility. Kidman — Globes nom, BAFTA longlist, NBR win… long shot at best, given the lack of support for the film, and, you know… the film. Not the kind of performance this branch typically warms to so easily. Stranger things have happened, but I’d rather let it happen than try to make a case for it.

We’re left with three people who feel legitimate. First is Jolie, who started strong with CCA and the Globes, but never got the actual voting body support I’d have wanted to see. Wasn’t even longlisted at BAFTA. I don’t see it, even though I don’t think any of us would be surprised if she ultimately made it. But early season support fades quick, and most years someone like that will also get the SAG nomination and I’ll need to point out how they still won’t be nominated despite that. She didn’t even make SAG. Tough call. She feels closer to surprise than legitimate dark horse.

Second is Marianne Jean-Baptiste, a previous nominee (which people forget). Mike Leigh has often gotten actors nominated (including her), but the film has had no major support anywhere (and I don’t even know if they’ve seen it stateside), and the last person to be nominated for one of Leigh’s films was 20 years ago. BAFTA and CCA makes her a legitimate candidate. But given what I’m about to say in a minute, I’m gonna leave her off and make her my alternate. But she feels almost the most likely option, so I’ll just be wrong.

That leaves Fernanda Torres. Recent years have taught me that when you don’t see someone clearly situated for the fifth spot (and it’s not a ‘two people, one spot’ situation), chances are it’s going to a foreign language nominee who gets it. It’s because they often don’t get the precursor nominations (not SAG members, BAFTA tends to be more insular, critics don’t stray too far off the beaten path). Plus, and this is the deciding factor for me — only twice ever has the Globes winner for Actress (Drama) not been nominated for the Oscar. The first was Shirley MacLaine in 1988, who won as part of a three-way tie (the other two winners were nominated, by the way). The second? Kate Winslet in 2008. Why? Because that performance was nominated at the in Supporting by the Globes and not lead, and she was nominated lead for a different film. She did still win both, just technically not for the same performance. So, it’s happened twice ever and both are two very specific and particular circumstances. That’s a lot of history that’s not been broken. I’m gonna take my chances on that. Reasonably speaking, all these stats and streaks get beaten at some point and it’s starting to feel more likely to be Jean-Baptiste is the one getting that spot, and I’d probably tell people to take her instead on their ballots if they want to be smart. But I’d feel better with Torres, so I’m taking Torres.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

First Alternate: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Dark Horse: Angelina Jolie, Maria

Surprise: Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

Shocker: June Squibb, Thelma; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Kate Winslet, Lee

Don’t Guess: Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Lily-Rose Depp, Nosferatu; Kirsten Dunst, Civil War; Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun; Zendaya, Challengers

Would love to see: I guess I’m okay. But I do want to shout out some great horror performances from this year: Lilly-Rose Depp, Aisling Franciosi, Nell Tiger Free, Naomi Scott

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Supporting Actor.

Since 2001, 6 actors have been nominated without precursors (only 1 this decade, who came along with another nominee). SAG has been 4/5 or 5/5 seven times this decade (though they do have two 2/5s). SAG has occasionally gone way off the board, but with the other precursors, we typically have a pretty straightforward field to work with and most years it’s not too difficult to guess what the lineup is gonna be.

Precursors:

• Culkin – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*, NBR*
• Borisov – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Norton – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Strong – SAG, BAFTA, Globes
• Pearce – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Maclin – BAFTA, CCA
• Washington – CCA, Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• Bailey — SAG
• Dickinson — (BAFTA longlist)
• Eydelshteyn — (BAFTA longlist)
• Tucci — (BAFTA longlist)

Culkin, Borisov and Norton have hit everything, and Culkin’s got a win. They’re all on. Next, you’ve got Guy Pearce, a respected actor with a plum role in a major Picture nominee who can easily come along with his film and his lead actor. Missed only SAG, which I can live with so long as he hit BAFTA. Feels like an easy inclusion. I’m considering him on until they leave him off. Now we’re down to one. And who’s left?

• Strong — respected actor, coming off a major role in a major show, giving a performance that people loved when they saw it… seems likely. A guarantee? No. But likely. I don’t think he needs Stan to get nominated for him to get nominated (arguably him being nominated allows them to leave Stan off and feel like they got the film something (this is how some voters think)).
• Maclin — great performance in a film that’s gonna get an Actor nomination, as well as decent shots at Screenplay and Picture. The downside to him is the lack of a SAG nomination. But that’s a popularity contest, and this was his first film. So if you consider some of Strong’s support to be a factor of that, he, with BAFTA, is on just about equal footing. I think he’s just as possible a nominee as Strong is.
• Denzel — he got the early two, but missed the other two (you know, the ones with actual voters). And considering he missed SAG… where he’s walked on before on stature alone… tells me no one really loves the performance and just loved him having fun. I’d be very surprised if he was the fifth choice over the other options. You have to realize, the Globes just want all the cool people at their party (and also somewhat want to lay the groundwork for the rest of the season so they can feel like they got there first) and the critics are just laying out the narrative that they and the publicists created. They are the beaten path. I’ll take my chances leaving him off.
• Bailey — SAG only, sort of out of nowhere. I don’t think anyone truly considers him a contender. The voting body picking him over literally anyone else (including Denzel) would make me reconsider everything I know about the Academy.
• No one else has a precursor, so all you can do at that point is try to guess who’s coming along with another nominee. The best I can give you there is either Stanley Tucci or John Lithgow in Conclave (or Carlos Diehz, if they really want to pick the right person) or someone else from Anora, which would be very surprising to me, if they got to Mark Eydelshtein. I don’t see them going there. And I can’t find that LaKeith Stanfield nomination (great performance that doesn’t belong here that they’re gonna force on anyway because they can’t find a consensus #5).

Ultimately, I feel like the fifth spot is coming down to Strong or Maclin. And while Maclin makes more intellectual sense to me as the ultimate choice, I just feel like there’s too much going for Strong (most importantly his familiarity to the body) to not guess him. So I’ll take him and be very happily wrong if it’s Maclin. I think Maclin would make more sense in a Sound of Metal situation like with Paul Raci, where the film was gonna get 5-6 nominations and he easily came along for the ride. This isn’t quite that.

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

First Alternate: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Dark Horse: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Surprise: Stanley Tucci, Conclave; Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

Shocker: Peter Sarsgaard, September 5; Adam Pearson, A Different Man; John Lithgow, Conclave

Don’t Guess: Harris Dickinson, Babygirl; Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson; Chris Hemsworth, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga; Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora

Would love to see: Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two; Nicolas Cage, Longlegs

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Supporting Actress.

Since 2001, 6 actresses have been nominated without precursors (3 this decade), all of whom came along with another nominee/their film. SAG’s gone 4/5 or 5/5 six times this decade and have only gone below 3/5 once since 2001 (2021). This category feels most prone to someone getting on out of nowhere, but generally it’s someone coming along with another nominee or a film and very rarely out of nowhere.

Precursors:

• Saldana – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*
• Grande – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Rossellini – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Qualley – CCA, Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• Curtis — SAG, BAFTA
• Gomez – BAFTA, Globes
• Jones – BAFTA, Globes
• Deadwyler – SAG, CCA
• Barbaro — SAG
• Ellis-Taylor – CCA
• Fanning – NBR*
• Austin — (BAFTA longlist)
• Paz — (BAFTA longlist)
• Watson — (BAFTA longlist)

Saldana hit everything and has a win, so she’s on. Grande also hit everything and the film is a monster hit. Hard to see them leaving her off. That’s two. Rossellini hit everything but SAG (which seems to be an increasing trend for veterans like her, so I don’t see that as a negative), is hugely respected and is in a film looking to potentially be the most nominated film of the year. I can’t see them leaving her off, despite the lack of screen time (but that’s a discussion we’ll have after she gets nominated). For now, she feels as safe as anyone else.

After those three, we’ve got questions. First, let’s trim off some of the extras. Austin, Paz, Watson — can’t go off BAFTA longlist alone. If you’re all in on Hard Truths overperforming, then consider Austin, but know it’s an uphill battle. Paz… there’s another second nominee from that film already here. That would really surprise me if it’s her. Ellis-Taylor — CCA only, no real support for the film out there, hard to see her, unless the film is really gonna pop off last minute. Everyone else, we can talk about.

First, the two Complete Unknown performances — Fanning won NBR but got nowhere else and Barbaro got SAG and nothing else. Both strong performances. However… Chalamet has not yet established himself as someone who brings other people along (not that he’s been nominated enough to do that, but still), and I don’t know if that’s the type of film where they’re gonna rush to nominate other performances outside of him and Norton. I can see it, but given the other options they both feel like surprise inclusions more than ‘must guess’. Fanning needed some sort of precursor for me to consider her, and Barbaro feels like fool’s gold with that SAG nomination. I’d be happy with it, but it just feels there to trick people not familiar with how this works into automatically guessing her.

Next, Deadwyler. I find it hard to buy her as an option because the film has no support. SAG is, as I’ve been saying, a popularity contest, and she’s been nominated by both SAG and BAFTA before (for Till) and wasn’t nominated. Seeing how this voting body operates, having her randomly get nominated when the film has been wholly ignored everywhere else would surprise me. The lack of a BAFTA longlist even makes me even more leery. Also, just to really be sure, I looked at historical precursor comps for her. The three I found were Stephanie Hsu, Rachel McAdams and Taraji P. Henson. All of those films had minimum 6 nominations, Picture nominations and multiple acting nominations. That’s not to say this isn’t possible, but I don’t see how she cuts through the other, higher profile choices and gets on this list. I’m gonna let them do it. I’ve learned in recent years not to trust SAG for situations exactly like this.

Now we gotta talk about Gomez. She got BAFTA. There’s that. I don’t know if she’s respected enough as an actor to get on this list, though. There’s a lot of mixed feelings about that performance (and film, let’s face it) out there, and the very limited voting body of the Academy doesn’t do her any favors. She missed SAG. That surprises me. I would’ve thought for sure SAG, no BAFTA. We’ll see if they’re that in love with the film to put on extra performances. I think they’re gonna leave it with Saldana, personally. I’ve seen enough in recent years to know they leave off people like her (let’s also not forget… Ariana fucking Grande is already about to get nominated).

I’m looking at three people for that final two spots. First up, Jones. BAFTA and Globes, in a major film getting at least one, likely two, other acting nominations. Previous nominee… seems like a slam dunk. I’d feel weird not including her, because I feel like the omission is gonna be more likely to be elsewhere. So that’s one of my two.

That leaves one spot and two people. First — Qualley. All things considered, I’m fully expecting them to leave her off. That film is clearly Demi Moore’s film to them and, while Qualley is liked, I’m not sure they’re gonna rush to nominate her over a veteran who they like. Which brings me to Curtis. They love her (and clearly don’t seem to mind or care how iffy that win was or how iffy this performance is) and she’s in that three-year window I’m always talking about where people get extra nominations. Plus SAG and BAFTA? The numbers say they’re likely to do it. I keep bumping up against — are they really gonna nominate her and now Anderson for a film that’s meant to be Anderson’s? This category is definitely one for one-offs from films like this (or, in this case, more about the person than the work), but I also worry that her stature plus the two precursors will make people over-calibrate her actual chances.

I feel like I’d rather be disappointed that they vote for her over Qualley than be cynical and right. Smart money is probably Curtis, though.

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez

First Alternate: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

Dark Horse: Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Surprise: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

Shocker: Dakota Fanning, A Complete Unknown; Adriana Paz, Emilia Pérez; Michele Austin, Hard Truths

Don’t Guess: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Emily Watson, Small Things Like These; Saoirse Ronan, Blitz; Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters; Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Would love to see: Adria Arjona, Hit Man; Joan Chen, Didi

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Original Screenplay.

This one’s usually very straightforward. The precursors, specifically the WGA, tell you everything you need to know. This past decade, only 2 scripts were nominated without any (20th Century Women and The Worst Person in the World, neither of which were WGA-eligible). Just look out for any non-WGA-eligible scripts (typically foreign or from a celebrated writer) that can sneak on, which are usually indicated by what’s in the overall field.

Precursors:

• Anora – WGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• The Brutalist – BAFTA, CCA, Globes, (WGA Ineligible)
• A Real Pain – WGA, BAFTA, CCA
• The Substance – BAFTA, CCA, (WGA Ineligible)
• Challengers – WGA, CCA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Civil War — WGA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Kneecap — BAFTA
• September 5 – CCA (WGA Ineligible)
• Hard Truths – NBR* (WGA Ineligible)
• All We Imagine as Light — (BAFTA longlist) (WGA Ineligible)
• The Apprentice — (BAFTA longlist)
• Heretic — (BAFTA longlist)
• My Old Ass — WGA

Anora hit everything and Baker’s been on the cusp of something for years (wasn’t nominated for Florida Project, FYI). Seems like a slam dunk. The Brutalist hit everything and but WGA (ineligible), so that seems pretty obvious. A Real Pain hit everything but the Globes, which has a single screenplay category. Normally I’d try to make the case against this, but with Culkin getting nominated, I feel like they’re probably gonna nominate it (but I’d also tell you to not be shocked if they do leave this off). The Substance — BAFTA and CCA and was WGA-ineligible. The Globes omission I can live with. Given it being a major contender and one of the most original films of the year, I feel comfortable including it. That’s four, and now we have a very interesting situation.

Let’s knock off a few obvious once —

My Old Ass only got WGA because of the ineligibles (which is fine, and awesome). It has no shot. Civil War also got a WGA-alternate slot (and I know Garland’s been nominated before, but it still feels very unlikely). Heretic and The Apprentice only made the BAFTA longlist and missed everything else (somehow Heretic didn’t make a WGA alternate slot). I’d just let them go there. All We Imagine as Light would normally be the film I earmark for fifth, but it missed all precursors and was only longlisted by BAFTA. It’s a stretch to go Picture or Director. Screenplay feels like a distant third and too much of a pipe dream to try to pull off. Given how infrequently films get nominated without precursors, it’s hard to make a case for it. And if I’m not taking that, I’m not looking at the other foreign films either, because at that point it’s foreign for foreign’s sake, and clearly they don’t do that. They actually nominate things that are narratively interesting and well-written. Okay, now we can hunker down to more serious contenders.

September 5 got CCA and was WGA-ineligible, but there’s been no support for the film outside the Globes, so I don’t see much traction there for this to suddenly get nominated (unless somehow it’s gonna get 3 nominations no one’s expecting, which also feels very possible). Hard Truths is one a lot of savvy guessers are gonna have on there because it’s Mike Leigh. He’s been nominated 5 times. I know he missed BAFTA, but so did his last two nominated scripts. All in all, he does feel like a safe bet. Lastly, Challengers. WGA and CCA, plus a BAFTA longlist. Reasonably speaking, that is everything you want to see and does make it the most obvious fifth choice. That said… the film has no traction anywhere and I’m not sure if the writers care about the screenplay aspect of it. That WGA nomination can always be a red herring. And assuming it’s there because something else they’d prefer isn’t eligible, and the film then only really has CCA, do you really see it as a major contender? I’m torn.

I was gonna take Mike Leigh for the longest time, and I often switch off things at the last minute to my own detriment, but I’m gonna go September 5 here on the hunch. I know they like to fall back on the people they know, but if I had to fade one of the two films, I’d say Mike Leigh, just because he missed BAFTA, which is so odd to me. So let’s assume the PGA support for September 5 is real and they didn’t nominate it there because it’s ineligible.

Best Original Screenplay

Anora

The Brutalist

September 5

A Real Pain

The Substance

First Alternate: Hard Truths

Dark Horse: All We Imagine as Light

Surprise: The Apprentice, Challengers

Shocker: Heretic, Civil War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Don’t Guess: Saturday Night, Kneecap, Babygirl, His Three Daughters, Blitz, Didi, A Different Man, I Saw the TV Glow, My Old Ass

Would love to see: We Live in Time

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Adapted Screenplay.

This is typically easier to predict than Original (because, historically, most Picture nominees tend to be adapted). In the past decade, only 1 script was nominated without precursors, and it was a Coen brothers script. The WGA, when things are eligible, usually nails it by themselves.

Precursors:

• Conclave – BAFTA, CCA, Globes*, (WGA Ineligible)
• Dune Part Two – WGA, CCA, Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• Emilia Pérez – BAFTA, CCA, Globes, (WGA Ineligible)
• Nickel Boys – WGA, BAFTA, CCA
• Sing Sing – BAFTA, CCA, NBR*, (WGA Ineligible)
• A Complete Unknown — WGA, BAFTA
• Wicked – WGA, CCA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Hit Man — WGA
• Lee — BAFTA longlist
• Nightbitch — BAFTA longlist
• The Outrun — BAFTA longlist (WGA Ineligible)

Let’s toss off the riff raff — the three longlisted films without a precursors shouldn’t be guessed. Hit Man is a WGA alternate, only there because of eligibility issues for the top films. That leaves only seven scripts with precursors, and means we’re in a great spot.

Let’s start with the obvious…

Conclave hit everything except WGA, where it’s ineligible. It’s on. Emilia Pérez hit everything except WGA, where it’s ineligible. It’s on. Nickel Boys has everything except the Globe (which  has one Screenplay category), and did all that despite no major support elsewhere. Kinda gotta guess it at that point. Sing Sing — BAFTA, CCA, won NBR and is WGA ineligible. Seems very, very likely. So I’ll take that too. That’s four.

We’re now left with three choices for two spots. First, the elephant in the room — Wicked. The Academy has historically not nominated musicals in Screenplay categories (and before you go there, Emilia Pérez is not the kind of musical I’m talking about. You know what the last stage-adapted musical was to be nominated here? Chicago. Before that? Cabaret. Before that? Oliver! Three nominations ago was 55 years.). Missing BAFTA and getting on at WGA with other stuff not being eligible there… I just can’t see it. The Academy I know wouldn’t nominate this, so I will go with that until they show me otherwise. There’s really only two options that make sense for that final spot.

First, A Complete Unknown, which hit BAFTA and WGA, both with voters. I’d normally say it might be a WGA alternate situation, but BAFTA is pretty big. So I’ll consider them both legitimate. The other — Dune. First one was nominated, and it hit WGA and CCA. Seems kind of obvious for most people, right? But it missed BAFTA. That’s… interesting. I wonder if that means it’s gonna get left off and if that WGA nomination is because other stuff was ineligible. BAFTA loves Denis, so the lack of a nomination either means a) it got squeezed for space, or b) they don’t love it like that. I don’t know which it means, but my gut says maybe I leave it off on a hunch and see if they go back to that well. Complete Unknown it is.

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

First Alternate: Dune: Part Two

Dark Horse: Wicked

Surprise: I’m Still Here, The Wild Robot

Shocker: Nightbitch, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door

Don’t Guess: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Outrun, Queer, Nosferatu, Hit Man

Would love to see: Hit Man

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Editing.

Only 4 Editing nominees from the past decade were not nominated for Best Picture. All but one got 3-5 nominations (the other had 2). Only 2 films since 2009 have been nominated without a precursor (both Picture nominees, none since 2013). Editing is Picture nominees, precursors and common sense.

Precursors:

• Anora – ACE, BAFTE, CCA
• Dune Part Two – ACE, BAFTA, CCA
• Conclave – ACE, BAFTA
• Emilia Pérez – ACE, BAFTA
• Challengers – ACE, CCA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Civil War – ACE, (BAFTA longlist)
• The Substance – ACE, (BAFTA longlist)
• Furiosa – ACE
• A Real Pain – ACE
• Wicked – ACE
• Kneecap — BAFTA
• The Brutalist – CCA
• September 5 – CCA
• A Complete Unknown — (BAFTA longlist)
• Gladiator II — (BAFTA longlist)

While Editing is a Best Picture category, it’s important to know that not every Picture nominee gets (or needs to get) nominated. They’re typically gonna vote for the ones most in contention/the ones they like the most (or the ones with obvious Editing). Point is, the bottom of your Picture list, whatever it is, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, Nickel Boys… these films likely won’t get Editing nominations unless they really wanna support them (and typically that comes out as a surprise (remember Dallas Buyers Club getting Editing out of nowhere? Even if you really thought it would overperform that year, nobody would’ve expected that). So that helps narrow your field a bit.

Couple of things to note also, precursor-wise: just because a film has all three precursors does not mean it’s a lock to get nominated. There have been 11 films since 2009 that were nominated for all precursors and weren’t nominated for Editing (* means it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture): Up in the Air, Inception, Wolf of Wall Street, Birdman, The Martian, Blade Runner 2049*, First Man*, Roma, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Belfast, Licorice Pizza. Also, just for the sake of getting unnecessarily analytical, here’s a breakdown of what precursors all Editing nominees got (ones in parentheses were not Picture nominees):

• ACE, BAFTA, BFCA — 35 (Baby Driver)
• ACE — 14 (Star Wars, I Tonya, Tick Tick Boom)
• ACE, BAFTA — 11
• ACE, CCA — 8 (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
• BAFTA, CCA — 4
• Nothing — 2
• CCA — 1

(The CCA one, by the way, is Spotlight.)

Why did I provide you with all this? Mostly to say — sometimes something will seem like a stone cold lock and then not get nominated for Editing in favor of a different Picture nominee. This category will throw you for a loop. It comes with the territory. Also, chances are if a film misses ACE it’s likely not gonna get nominated. Also, I don’t think this needs to be said this deep… but avoid films not in contention for Picture nominations (unless it’s obvious. And even then, it’s not guaranteed).

I also think I gave you all that because I have this weird gut feeling this year that we might get a big one left off. I just feel like Dune or something of that caliber is gonna get left off. I know I probably won’t actually guess that, but I do feel like it’s gonna happen. This year just feels like it’s gonna give us a few strange categories, and Editing is always one of those most likely to end up like that. Look at the 2021 Best Picture list and then look at the Editing category we got. No one could’ve expected that. That’s Editing for you.

Anyway, looking at what we have this year: given that only one film in the three-precursor era was only nominated with just CCA and nothing else, if I’m picking anything there, it’s The Brutalist and it’s not September 5. So that’s first (but also, be prepared for them to not nominate it as well. That looks so likely to be a major cast off that I’m almost ready to guess it). Also, given that only two films in 15 years have been nominated without a precursor, if I’m taking anything there this year, it’s A Complete Unknown, which almost assuredly is gonna get a Picture nomination. A Real Pain would truly surprise me. Everything else that’s not in contention for Picture I’m tossing off, even Challengers. Just gonna let them do it. As a sports film, it could sneak on, but I don’t feel the love for it and given how difficult it is for a non-Picture nominee to crack this list (and looking at those ones that did make it), I’d rather just let it get on.

That leaves, ultimately, eight films. Basically your top eight Picture nominees, unsurprisingly. And since I consider your top three Picture contenders to be Conclave, The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, I’m gonna start my list with those. The data says The Brutalist can be left off and that it’s not actually that much a win contender as it may seem (and the race may show us that), but given how things look, I don’t see why you wouldn’t guess it. So I’m putting those on. I don’t know if they’re gonna love A Complete Unknown to vote for it here, and I also don’t know if they’re gonna feel like they need to nominate The Substance either. Maybe they love it like that, but I think they’ll respect it enough to leave it off Editing because they’re not actually gonna look to vote for it to win. So I’ll take those two off. That leaves three films for two spots. And since Anora hit everything and feels like they really like it, I’ll say that gets on, even though I can easily see that being left off (especially since Baker edited the film himself, and they can rebel against that. So be on the lookout for the Anora omission). That leaves me with Dune and Wicked. I can see them going with Wicked, but I’m gonna stick with Denis and Dune and Joe Walker. It’s too obvious a choice and I want to have it there as a baseline and let them go nuts if they’re gonna go nuts (and believe me, I think they might go nuts this year).

Best Editing

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

First Alternate: Wicked

Dark Horse: The Substance

Surprise: A Complete Unknown, September 5

Shocker: All We Imagine as Light, Challengers, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Don’t Guess: Civil War, A Real Pain, Kneecap, Gladiator II, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu

Would love to see: Challengers get nominated

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Cinematography.

Only 2 films since 2009 have been nominated without precursors (3 if you remove BSC, which I’ve honestly never looked at before this year). ASC alone is 4/5 or 5/5 every year but two in the past 20 years (2004, 2006). Since we’ve had four precursors, a 70% of nominees have managed at least three, and ~50% got all 4. Only 7 total nominees missed ASC. Usually this category’s obvious.

ASC started in 1986. Since then, they’ve correctly predicted 151/190 Oscar nominees. Meaning 39 misses in 38 years. Even more impressive, since 2009, when we’ve had four precursors, the total drops to 9. That’s 66/75 in 15 years. They’re your north star.

Also, just to get it out there, BSC is actually the most helpful in picking up the slack when ASC misses one. Since 2009, they’ve had 5 of ASC’s misses. CCA had 4 (matching 3 to BSC) and BAFTA’s had 3 (matching all to BSC and 2 to BFCA). That’s also to say, of the 7 films that missed ASC and got a precursor, five of them got nominated at multiple places. One of the two was Hateful Eight, which only got CCA (but also, Bob Richardson had previously gotten nominated with no precursors for Django, so clearly that was a possibility). The only time something was nominated with a single non-ASC precursor since 2009 was in 2009, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince.

So basically, if it misses ASC and doesn’t have multiple precursors, don’t guess it.

Precursors:

• Nosferatu – ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA, NBR*
• The Brutalist – ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA
• Conclave – ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA
• Dune Part Two – ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA
• Wicked – ASC, CCA
• Emilia Pérez — BAFTA, BSC
• Nickel Boys – CCA, ASC Spotlight
• A Complete Unknown — ASC, (BAFTA longlist)
• Maria — ASC
• Girl with the Needle — ASC Spotlight
• Anora — (BAFTA longlist)
• Civil War — (BAFTA longlist)
• Gladiator II — (BAFTA longlist)
• The Substance — (BAFTA longlist)

Four films hit all precursors — The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune, Nosferatu. Given the visuals in all of them, I don’t see why you wouldn’t guess them all. At that point, your list is basically done. Just gotta figure out that lsat spot.

Given how infrequently something’s been nominated without a precursor, I’m avoiding all the ones that only got shortlisted. Anora, Civil War, Gladiator, The Substance — not guessing them. Only The Substance could I maybe see making it, but zero precursors tells me all I need to know. That leaves six films.

First, Maria. ASC only, but they nominated seven films there, so it doesn’t carry the same weight as if it it were just 5. It was shot by Ed Lachmann, a three-time nominee and hugely respected cinematographer. He was nominated last year for El Conde. My feeling on this is that he’s there because of an expanded category and his status and he’s not actually in play for the final category. It could happen (stature counts for a lot, but not everything), but personally I see better ways to fill my final spot.

Second, Wicked. Have to deal with that near the top to get it out of the way. CCA was almost assured and ASC is helpful. Again, would’ve liked to see it in a category of 5 and not 7, because I could point to it as a byproduct of an expanded category. Their rules allow for anywhere from 5-10 nominees depending on how many votes a film gets. Which means all these films met the threshold to get on. Which is fine and does mean something, but given the lack of attention from the British voting bodies and the overall feeling of the visuals of the film (it’s not exactly The Assassination of Jesse James), I’m not sure that’s a recipe for a nomination. This branch tends to have higher standards than the Academy does overall, so I’m going with this doesn’t get nominated and will let them prove me wrong. (Though I will say, this being nominated would mean a woman gets nominated, and that’s always a good thing.)

Next, Emilia Pérez. It’s got the two British precursors, which meets my rule of ‘if it misses ASC, it needs multiple precursors’. The drawback to me is that it does’t feel like the most visual film ever. Typically with this category, there’s a sense of ‘flashy’ visuals or an overall ‘well yeah, it’s (this cinematographer)’ or a track record of the director’s films getting nominated for visuals. I don’t see that here, and it’s making me hesitate on this. I feel like I wanna see them do it before I guess it. My gut says they’re more likely to go elsewhere.

Next is Girl with the Needle. The only precursor it has is ASC Spotlight, which is something, especially since the film is in contention for International Feature. However, to this point, there have only been two films nominated for ASC Spotlight instead of ASC proper that have been nominated for the Oscar (Ida and The Lighthouse), and both had at least two other precursors. I know the lure of black and white is there, but the lack of other precursors makes me think it’s more unlikely than likely. Though, I will add, the cinematographer there (Michal Dymek) also shot both EO and A Real Pain, so he’s a legitimate contender, as he’s clearly now on their radar.

Precursor-wise, the two most likely choices are Nickel Boys and A Complete Unknown. A Complete Unknown is Phedon Papamichel, two-time nominee (Nebraska, Trial of the Chicago 7) who managed a nomination just a few years ago off just an ASC nomination (and BAFTA longlist, to boot). He’s very respected by his guild and the film is very much in the Academy’s mold. Lotta sense there. Nickel Boys, meanwhile, is an up-and-coming DP (hence the Spotlight nomination), Jomo Fray, who also shot Selah and the Spades, All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt and, interestingly, Clodagh, which is shortlisted this year in Live Action Short. The film is notably shot POV, which is a very flashy technique that can either be seen as something automatic or something polarizing, as some may see it as a gimmick. The CCA nomination helps it, but, as I’ve said throughout this article… I worry not enough people have actually seen this movie to vote for it. I don’t think the cinematographers are gonna have that problem, which is why I think it’s a legitimate contender, but I do worry just on the insulated nature of these awards. Sometimes it’s more about who your friends are than what the work is.

This branch’s predilection tends to be for more artistic efforts, while also skewing toward respected veterans. My gut says to take A Complete Unknown over Nickel Boys. But it also says there’s a legitimate chance they’ll put both on and leave Dune off. I’ll take the safer choice and see where they end up.

By the way, for anyone wondering, I make these flippant decisions because 1) you have to make a decision at some point, 2) it’s my ballot to do what I want with and I’d rather go with what makes me most comfortable, and 3) I feel confident in most of my choices. If I go 4/5 in every category, I’ve done better than I’ve ever done at guessing these things. So if I’m quibbling about a final nominee and I’m wrong, but get the other 4 right? I’m good. Sure, I wanna bank as many 5/5s as possible, but reasonably speaking I’m gonna get somewhere between 25-35 nominees wrong here. It’s bound to happen no matter what I do. So you just hope for the best and hope it’s not this nominee.

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

First Alternate: Nickel Boys

Dark Horse: The Girl with the Needle

Surprise: Wicked, Maria

Shocker: Emilia Pérez, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Substance

Don’t Guess: Civil War, Gladiator II, Anora, Challengers, All We Imagine as Light

Would love to see: I’d be happy with this category.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Score.

In the past 25 years (1999), 26 scores have been nominated without precursors. In the past 20, 19 have. Past 15, it’s 9. Past 10, 6. Since the shortlists began in 2018, it’s 3 (and two were last year). Point is, it’s becoming increasingly rare to see something get nominated without a precursor, and in the past 15 years, most of the time it’s either because the film got a decent amount of nominations and they tossed Score in too, or because it was John Williams.

To break that down, here’s the films that were nominated without precursors, and their number of nominations in parentheses: Hurt Locker (9), Adventures of Tintin (1, Williams), Philomena (4), Mr. Turner (4), Passengers (2), Last Jedi (4, Williams), Da 5 Bloods (1), American Fiction (5), Indiana Jones (1, Williams). A third of that list is John Williams, a third of the list are Best Picture nominees. The remaining third are two surprises and a film with 4 nominations. It’s not foolproof, but you at least have a road map.

Shortlist:

Alien: Romulus (Benjamin Wallfisch)
Babygirl (Cristobal Tapia de Veer)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Danny Elfman)
Blink Twice (Chanda Dancy)
Blitz (Hans Zimmer, and maybe Nicholas Britell)
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Challengers (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol)
The Fire Inside (Tamar-kali)
Gladiator II (Harry Gregson-Williams)
Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 (John Debney)
Inside Out 2 (Andrea Datzman)
Nosferatu (Robin Carolan)
The Room Next Door (Alberto Iglesias)
Sing Sing (Bryce Dessner)
The Six Triple Eight (Aaron Zigman)
Wicked (John Powell)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)
Young Woman and the Sea (Amelia Warner)

One thing I like to do is look at the nominations/shortlist history for each of the composers. It may tip you off as to who could sneak on through reputation even if the film doesn’t make much sense from the ‘data’ (and, if nothing else, helps familiarize people with composers’ names). I find it helpful to see which composers they keep shortlisting (and for what).

• Wallfisch — never nominated but shortlisted before, for The Invisible Man.
• Tapia de Veer — never been nominated. First shortlist.
• Elfman — 4-time nominee (not since 2008). Never shortlisted. Has been nominated for Burton (Big Fish).
• Dancy — never nominated, but shortlisted before, for Devotion.
• Zimmer/Brittell — Hans is a 12-time nominee & 2-time winner (Lion King, Dune). Only shortlisted once before (Dune). Britell’s a 3-time nominee (Moonlight, Beale Street, Don’t Look Up) with two other shortlists.
• Blumberg — never shortlisted or nominated. Only his second score.
  Reznor & Ross — 3-time nominees, 2-time winners (Social Network, Soul). Third shortlist.
• Bertelmann — 2-time nominee with a win (All Quiet). Second shortlist.
• Ducol — never nominated or shortlisted.
• Tamar-kali — never nominated or shortlisted.
• Gregson-Williams — never nominated, shortlisted twice (Mulan, Last Duel).
• Debney — nominated once (Passion of the Christ), shortlisted once (Jingle Jangle).
• Datzman — never nominated or shortlisted.
• Carolan — never nominated or shortlisted.
• Iglesias — 4-time nominee, shortlisted twice (both Almodovar films, one of which he was nominated for).
• Dessner — never nominated or shortlisted.
• Zigman — never nominated or shortlisted.
• Powell — nominated once (How to Train Your Dragon). First shortlist.
• Bowers — never nominated (in Score), shortlisted twice (King Richard, Color Purple).
• Warner — never nominated or shortlisted.

Precursors:

• The Brutalist – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Conclave – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Emilia Pérez – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Wild Robot – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Challengers – CCA, Globes*
• Nosferatu — BAFTA
• Beetlejuice — (BAFTA longlist)
• Blitz — (BAFTA longlist)
• Gladiator II — (BAFTA longlist)

Only six films got precursors. So you can pretty much just use that and be fine.

To run down the shortlist, though — Alien, Babygirl, Blink Twice, Fire Inside, Horizon, Inside Out, Sing Sing, Six Triple Eight and Young Woman and the Sea are all not happening. I can go into detail, but I think we all instinctively know from the titles that they’re not happening. And if they do, then we can go from there. But between the lack of things being nominated without precursors that aren’t films in contention for other awards, plus this branch’s tendency to make sure to shortlist a certain number of women and Black composers with no intention of ever voting for them, I can’t believe they’re gonna do it until they do it.

That eliminates just about half our list. I’ll also toss off Gladiator, Blitz and Beetlejuice, which only have a longlisting at BAFTA and nothing else. Can’t see any of them happening. Blitz has no support (especially stateside), Beetlejuice is likely a veteran show of respect and Gladiator is too much of an action score and not the standout it was in the first film. That takes us down to 8.

Four scores hit everything. For reference, going back to 2000 (which is where we had three precursors, even if it took a few years to get up and running), only 8 scores have been nominated for all precursors and not been nominated. 4 of those weren’t eligible. Which means it’s only happened 4 times in 24 years, The weird part? It’s happened in each of the past two. Once is happenstance, twice is a coincidence, three times is a trend. So let’s see if we’ve got a trend. I’m not sure we do, because John Williams isn’t up this year, but you do have to consider it.

Either way, Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez and Wild Robot hit everything, so let’s put them on. And I’m putting on Challengers because if somehow they leave that off I will lose whatever faith and goodwill I’ve had in the music branch since they fixed Score some years back. That’s my five.

HOWEVER… I will say — Nosferatu is looking to get a handful of techs and can sneak on. Does it make sense from a score perspective? No, but it fits the criteria for films with no precursors. Room Next Door… can’t see it. Iglesias got nominated for Parallel Mothers but was left off for Pain and Glory. Both films received an acting nomination and were better received than Room Next Door has been. So I’m leaving that off. The one we really need to look at is Wicked. It is positively shocking to me that the film managed zero precursors. I guess they see the score as an extension of the songs and not as its own thing. But it’s gonna get like 7 or 8 nominations, so a Score add-on absolutely can happen. You’re not crazy to pick that as a surprise inclusion.

And if you do leave something off in favor of Wicked, I think it’s gonna be The Wild Robot. Only 11 animated film scores have been nominated the past 25 years. 6 were Pixar (and five happened 15 or more years ago), two were Desplat/Wes Anderson scores and one was John Williams/Spielberg. All part of a ‘brand’. Meaning it’s only happened twice in 25 for non-Pixar, non-composer/director combos. How to Train Your Dragon and Encanto. So that’s your likely exclusion, just going off the history. Kris Bowers, however, is a known entity and the film is very likable (in the exact vein as How to Train Your Dragon), so I think it’s more likely to make it than not. But I am cautioning you about it.

Best Original Score

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

The Wild Robot

First Alternate: Wicked

Dark Horse: The Room Next Door

Surprise: Blitz, Nosferatu

Shocker: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Horizon: An American Saga, Young Woman and the Sea

Don’t Guess: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Blink Twice, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight

Would love to see: Young Woman and the Sea get nominated.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Song.

Because I didn’t do my precursor/shortlist articles this year, I didn’t get to do my favorite part of awards season, which is listening to all the eligible songs. So I’m gonna do it here. Because I can and because I enjoy it. There are 89 eligible songs this year. If there’s not a video linked, I wasn’t able to find it/listen to it.

“Albany Road,” from Albany Road

“Built for This,” from Albany Road

“Am I Racist?” from Am I Racist?

No comment.

“Do the Work” from Am I Racist?

I cannot believe this is how we’re starting this list.

“Pain Has a Purpose,” from Americans With No Address

“Electric Energy,” from Argylle

I support film music videos using the cast to lip sync along. This is exactly the type of thing we need more of in movies. They also had the exact right cast to make this happen. Love every bit of this. Shouldn’t get anywhere near a nomination, but in its way, it’s perfect.

“Leash,” from Babygirl

This feels like the right type of song for a movie like this. Doesn’t do much for me as a song, but it’s right for the film it’s written for, which counts for a lot.

“Song for Amy,” from Back to Black

This sounds like it was written as an original song for the actress to sing as Amy but they didn’t have the balls to actually go through with it in the movie. Because otherwise what the fuck is this song? But hey, it’s here. It exists.

“Ishq Walla Daku,” from Band of Maharajas

“Forbidden Road,” from Better Man

Imagine I knew nothing about this movie and this was my first time knowing what its conceit is. Also, this song started and I immediately heard “I Got a Name” by Jim Croce. Is that why it was disqualified? Because the chorus sounds exactly like that. It’s a good song and all, but all I hear is “I Got a Name.” And I remain fascinated by this music video (having not yet seen the film, which I hear is actually quite good). Curious if this ends up being something I’d put in my own category or not (since I am actually listening to all the songs in order and don’t even know what’s on the rest of this list yet.

“A Country Dance,” from Between the Temples

Not for me, but these independent artists getting original songs in these independent films is the life’s blood of this category, so I’m all for it.

“Winter Coat,” from Blitz

Of course she can sing too (and yet no one’s written an acceptable original musical for her to star in?). This song is exactly the type of song that would’ve existed during this era and that’s the biggest compliment I can give it, and that’s why they probably shortlisted it. A perfect song.

“Then I Will,” from Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin

Part of my joy in doing this every year is finding out that films exist with this title. Just so we’re clear, this is a movie about a pastor who joins the plot to kill Hitler and was vocally against murdering Jews. Which is the most Christian movie shit ever. Taking the Holocaust and turning it into self-promotion. Absolutely insane. Anyway, this song is so on the nose it’s offensive to noses.

“Nazarene,” from The Book of Clarence

Can we talk about how his first two films are an all-Black western and a religious satire. King shit. This is a solid song, too. You know they won’t let this within a mile of a shortlist, but still, love that it’s here.

“Dare to Be,” from Cabrini

Oh, they brought out Andrea Bocelli. Okay then. Tenors have those types of voices that make any song sound good even if it’s abject dog shit. And his actual daughter singing with him too. How can you not love this?

“El Baile de los Zanganos,” from Captain Avispa

This being the first song from an animated film on this list made me realize how few of these scenes existed this year. Remember when animated films just randomly had original music all over them, or at the very least a giant musical interlude in the middle? I can’t, off the top of my head, think of more than like, one or two animated films that had decidedly original songs in them.

“Mi Amor,” from Captain Avispa

From the guy who brought you “Despacito” brings you a love balled from singing bees. Wild. Honestly, based on what’s been here so far, this is actually one of the more solid films I’ve heard thus far. Which is more an indictment of the state of film music than anything else.

“Whoever You Are,” from Celebrating Laughter: The Life and Films of Colin Higgins

“Compress/Repress,” from Challengers

My first thought hearing this is “watch them not nominate both the song and the score.” Because that’s exactly the type of shit the Academy would do. Consensus top score of the year and they’ll be like, “Nah, let’s make sure we get Diane Warren on there instead for a song/film that was forgotten yesterday.” Fucking watch them do it. But anyway, this will absolutely make my personal category. This song is awesome.

“City of Dreams” from City of Dreams

He has two songs on here. In two languages. I feel like this song was written thinking it was something it absolutely is not. But hey, aspirations are good.

“Custer Park,” from Dandelion

I support all movies about musicians with original songs.

“Honey,” from Dandelion

Love it.

“Thin Elephant,” from Dandelion

They always need to put the one song written that the characters don’t sing that appears over a montage/the end credits. Every time.

“Double Life,” from Despicable Me 4

This guy had a hit with the second movie and has been chasing that high ever since.

The funny thing about this is that we’re almost certainly later gonna have a song from his lego-docu-pic, which specifically has a section that talks about how he had a long stretch where he made shit that just didn’t work. I’m not going so far as to say this didn’t work, but this definitely is one of those where it’s not the song he had from his last outing in this franchise.

“You Are Never Far Away,” from Don’t Say It

“Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late

I wanted to roll my eyes at the thought of this song, and then they started with that piano intro and it became impossible to hate. Also, are we not gonna talk about the fact that he also has a song with this title from the Lion King remake? But anyway, the song’s fun. Definitely not anything to write home about (nor was the song he recently won for, but that at least had biopic going for it (and an incredibly weak category)). This is an easy thing for them to shortlist.

“El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez

Feel what you want about the film, but this is one of the most original scenes of 2024. Zoe Saldana absolutely kills the performance, and the entire conceit of the song and number is amazing. (Also, if they don’t nominate her for this performance, it’ll be criminal.)

Speaking from a strictly plot standpoint, there’s a strong case to be made that this should win the category.

“Mi Camino,” from Emilia Pérez

It’s wild to me that they just wrote music and had people translate the lyrics. This one isn’t a bad song, but it’s clearly second banana of the two submitted songs from the film. It being here probably hurts “El Mal”‘s chances at winning, but I get it. Put the biggest name forward. It’s a classic trick.

“Alone,” from The End

To start, I think we need to address this film, which I don’t think most people know about — it’s directed by Joshua Oppenheimer, who made The Act of Killing, and is a musical starring Michael Shannon and Tilda Swinton. Also, just gotta say, George MacKay is also in this, and that dude is fucking fearless as an actor. People will know him from 1917, but he wasn’t exactly the star there. That dude is incredible, though, and I can’t wait for him to get his ‘big’ role.

Anyway, this song sounds great and I can’t wait to see it in context (which should be next week).

“The Big Blue Sky,” from The End

I was waiting to see how Michael Shannon singing would go. Every song I hear from this film only makes me want to see it more.

“Catch Fire,” from The End

Oh, this is the Disney princess ‘I wanna change my life’ song. That’s fun.

“Bricks,” from Exhibiting Forgiveness

Oh, they put her name up front. They were absolutely looking for an automatic vote. That’s how they do with Diane Warren. They shoehorn her into the videos too. Anyway, this song was much more low key than I expected.

“Ezra,” from Ezra

Like I said — these indie movies are built on songs like this. You don’t have 89 eligible songs without stuff like this. This is a cute little song, too.

“The Peace That You Are Missing,” from Fighting Spirit: A Combat Chaplain’s Journey

“Not on My Watch,” from Following Harry

“Panorama,” from From Embers

This is the synopsis of this movie: “After her husband dies in a lab fire, a widowed mother of an autistic son must try to piece her life together while uncovering what really happened on that fateful night.” I tell myself I try to watch everything that comes out, and then there’s stuff like this that just… exists.

“The Good Life,” from The Garfield Movie

Jon Batiste looking to get that Pharrell paycheck. Also doing better than Pharrell did with his Despicable Me song this year. Also, how insane would it be if he followed up a nomination for a song he wrote for his wife, who was going through leukemia, with a song from Garfield?

“Let It Roll” from The Garfield Movie

Let’s be real here — the lasagna bling is amazing.

Also… not a bad song. This is what animated films are built on. It’s the right kind of pop music that’s also not immediately dated. It’s not Alan Menken in the 90s timeless, but it’s also not one of those songs that sounds like the radio of today that you wouldn’t be able to listen to in five years. Also, I do not believe we have found a paycheck that Snoop Dogg will not take.

“What We Wanna Be,” from Glitter and Doom

I am so glad that Glitter and Doom is the name of a musical group in this film, because otherwise what were we doing here. Ming-Na is in this movie, also. Not a bad song, either.

“Istigfar,” from The Goat Life

The goat life. Title legitimately could have gone either way.

I will also say, selfishly, I downgraded this song a bit because the opening made me believe this was going to be a music video where a guy sung a passionate song in the desert while a goat just hung out next to him. Which would have been one of the greatest music videos of all time. And while I’m sure this song is perfectly fine… was kinda hoping for the goat video.

“Puthu Mazha,” from The Goat Life

“Never Lost,” from The Greatest Hits

Solid enough song… doesn’t feel like the song that should have been put forth from this film. This film deserved an original song, but I’m not sure this is the one for it. A second one, yes, but not the primary. But shout out to Nelly Furtado. She’s great.

“In Time,” from His Three Daughters

Is it me or does every darling indie movie that’s vaguely in awards consideration have a song exactly like this?

“Made for You,” from The Hopeful

The synopsis for this movie begins with “After the War of 1812,” which I’m not sure is something I’ve ever heard in a movie. Most people couldn’t even tell you what the War of 1812 was about (though, nowadays, most people couldn’t tell you what World War I was about either). The rest of the synopsis tells you absolutely nothing, too. Absolute bullshit, the kind of which makes me figure they’re hiding something (probably religious).

“Claw Machine,” from I Saw the TV Glow

Perfect type of song for this film. Great song, too.

“Starburned and Unkissed,” from I Saw the TV Glow

Another great song for this film. I really do hope people watch this film. It’s great.

“The Idea of You,” from The Idea of You

This dude wrote and performs the damn song too? Jesus. Absolutely also should’ve gotten Anne Hathaway to sing it with him.

“Nothing’s Impossible,” from The Imaginary

Nice video. Song doesn’t do it for me, but video’s cool.

“Folie a Deux,” from Joker: Folie a Deux

This was a prime example of what was gonna win out, their love of Gaga or their hatred for this film. With the Academy, it’s always gonna be the hatred of the film. Once a film gets that bad awards press, it’s over. Though this also isn’t much of a song either.

“Sick in the Head,” from Kneecap

Hell yeah.

“Beautiful That Way,” from The Last Showgirl

Wait, are they really gonna possibly nominate this song? This… is not a very good song. This is why I listen to everything. Because this feels like something the Globes and critics nominate but the Academy would never dare to. But things are bad here, so maybe they’ll have to.

“Between the Lines,” from Left Behind

This is fun.

“One of Us,” from Left Behind

Okay.

“The Rider,” from The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim

Nothing against this song, but this is a far cry from the songs written for The Hobbit songs, let alone the original trilogy songs. It’s like watching cinema become movies become content. Lord of the Rings feels like it’s just become IP at this point and we’re writing these songs just because that’s what they did the first time and it worked.

“Freedom,” from Lovely Jackson

Oh, that’s… the whole song.

“Not My Fault,” from Mean Girls

This is fun.

“My Pledge,” from Megalopolis

They had a chance to legitimately write an original song for this movie (aside from this), and they didn’t do it. This song works for the context in which it was written, but isn’t a particularly good song.

“Beyond,” from Moana 2

Solid song. I think people will get hung up on comparing it to the songs from first one. It can’t compare. But on its own it gets the job done. Same as the film as a sequel. It’s fine, but it’s not ‘nominated and potentially win’ good. Which is perfectly acceptable.

“Can I Get a Chee Hoo,” from Moana 2

Same as the previous song — works perfectly well, just don’t get hung up on comparing this to “You’re Welcome.” Here specifically I feel the lyrics are a clear downgrade. They definitely veer a bit too much into contemporary references rather than sticking with character-based lyrics. And that hurts it for me. There’s not much great on this list, so this rises near the top, but it’s still a disappointment to me just because it’s essentially trying and failing to do what the same song from the last film did rather than being its own thing based on this film’s story.

“I Always Wanted a Brother,” from Mufasa: The Lion King

Wait, did they just really redo “I Just Can’t Wait to Be King” but badly? This song is essentially how all these live action Disney remakes feel — ‘so cool, we’re just doing the same thing again without anything new or original to say and no real grasp on the themes of why things were done in the first place’? Also, what the fuck is that choice of rhyming ‘brotha’ with itself like four times in a row? Jesus christ.

“Tell Me Its You,” from “Mufasa: The Lion King

I didn’t even have to hit play to know exactly what this song is trying to be, which is exactly the problem with films like this. Just do your own thing, man. We don’t need to try to be “Can You Feel the Love Tonight.” It’s a fine song and all, but it’s drawing comparisons to a far better song, which is one of those things Roger Ebert used to say — movies should never overtly remind you of better movies. This is actively making you think of a better song from a better movie. Not the best choice.

“The Neon Highway,” from The Neon Highway

This is a perfectly acceptable country song. This is not a song that should be nominated for an Academy Award. That’s all.

“Summer Blue,” from Nightbitch

I have a history of not liking these songs in movies. The only one that worked for me was “Moon Song,” and that’s because they performed it on screen. But this is one of those that is just elevator music pleasant and exists over the end credits and doesn’t do anything for the film. Not for me.

“Black Truck,” from The Other, Gold

“Callin’ Angels,” from The Other, Gold

“Piece by Piece,” from Piece by Piece

Within about ten seconds you can hear how much more he gave a shit about this song than the Despicable Me song. It’s solid. Not sure I vote for it, but it’s not something that would make an offensive nominee.

“Huele a Fraude,” from Problemista

Very nice song.

“Iti Maa,” from Putul

It’s funny how many of these films submit their songs from consideration and so much of the American market doesn’t even know they exist. I feel bad automatically saying they’re never gonna get nominated each year, but that’s what it is. It’s still always insane to me how many songs get written for these films each year. They truly just keep finding new melodies and lyrics (because they have to be to qualify as original).

“Emotional,” from Ray of Hope

“Christmas Magic,” from Red One

Let me start by saying I respect the hell out of anyone that tries to write a Christmas song. It’s so damn hard to get anywhere near the pantheon of great (or even memorable) ones. This one — it’s okay. Not memorable enough to want to shortlist it but at least commendable for the effort of even trying.

“Creatures of Nature,” from Sasquatch Sunset

Okay.

“Why I’m Here,” from Shirley

My only issue with this song is — from a song perspective, why must we make every song from a biopic about a Black historical figure sound just like this? I understand it from a cultural tradition standpoint, but from an original song standpoint, this is no different from those on-the-nose, pandering to your emotions songs from Oscar bait Holocaust films.

“Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing

I was hoping for an all-prisoner rendition of Nelly Furtado. Just saying. But also — I really like this song a lot.

“The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight

Oh, they went all out for this one, huh. Diane Warren AND H.E.R. Perennial nominee and previous winner. Notice how they made a point to tell you right up front — that to me is underhanded. There are rules against certain types of campaigning, but putting that up front is like in Goodfellas where Henry goes to court for the first time and the lawyer nods at the judge. We all fucking know what the deal is.

Also, I’m just gonna say it — Diane Warren hasn’t written a decent nominated song in a while. This one is only passable because H.E.R. goes nuts on vocals. Lyrically this is such a generic song. And yet because it’s her it’s gonna get an automatic pass onto the category and theoretically even have a shot of winning because of how weak everything is this year.

“New Brain” from Smile 2

It’s so sad that this will not get recognition as a better song than the one above this, which will undoubtedly get nominated.

I’m not gonna say the Oscars are broken, but like a lot of things that need updating in this world, the system needs to be updated.

“Run It,” from Sonic the Hedgehog 3

This is how a pop song in a mainstream American film should sound. Perfect song. Absolutely should never get nominated for an Oscar, but for the film it was written for, this is perfect.

“The Way It Was Before,” from Spellbound

Alan Menken wrote this and they didn’t even let it sniff the shortlist. Damn.

This is better than a lot of the songs on this list. I do think, though, that the lyrics and content of the story and the manner in which the film was made shows a real disconnect. This is a story for pre-teens, not children. It’s okay for children, but the songs and the content are more complicated than other animated films. It’s about basically a 12 year old dealing with their parents’ marriage falling apart. And the film is presented as this fluffy movie for 6 year olds. And I think that keeps this song and film from being something we (rightfully) should see as one of the five or ten best songs on this list.

Point is, we should let animation be more than just content for children. It’s a medium. Use it the way the story dictates, not the market.

“Better the Devil,” from Strange Darling

This is nice.

“Under the Tree” from That Christmas

This is very Ed Sheeran.

“Just As You Are,” from Thelma the Unicorn

Crazy this video starts with a donkey playing the piano.

It’s nice though. More for the radio than a movie, but sure.

“If I Fall,” from Transformers One

We’ve come a long way from Linkin Park.

I don’t know why they thought to have this be the song for this movie, but I’m all for it. This is great. I always do cringe a little at the ‘garage band’ beats and do miss when we made these things by playing instruments (or at least using an 808 with instruments), but it’s a fun song.

“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma,” from Twisters

Sure. This is fine. Not something you nominate, but the kind of original song movies the past 30 years were built on. This sounds like an original song for like, half the 90s movies I grew up with.

“Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters

Lotta white girl dancing going on in this video.

“No Better” from Ultraman: Rising

The song from Ultraman: Rising did not have to go this hard. Big fan of this.

“On a Corner at the Center of the World” from Veselka

“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

This is okay.

“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

This is nice enough.

“Little Miss Polka Dot,” from Your Monster

They certainly nailed ‘off Broadway song’.

“My Stranger” from Your Monster

Love it.

– – – – –

Okay, so just because this is a thing I always do, here’s what I would shortlist:

1. “Winter Coat,” from Blitz
2. “Dare to Be,” from Cabrini
3. “Compress/Repress,” from Challengers
4. “Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late
5. “El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez
6. “Mi Camino,” from Emilia Pérez
7. “Alone,” from The End
8. “Catch Fire,” from The End
9. “Claw Machine,” from I Saw the TV Glow
10. “Starburned and Unkissed,” from I Saw the TV Glow
11. “Beyond,” from Moana 2
12. “Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing
13. “New Brain” from Smile 2
14. “The Way It Was Before,” from Spellbound
15. “No Better” from Ultraman: Rising

And if I’m picking my own personal category, I’m likely taking:

“Compress/Repress,” from Challengers
“El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez
“Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing
“The Way It Was Before,” from Spellbound
“Winter Coat,” from Blitz

But anyway, let’s get into the real stuff…

– – – – –

Shortlist:

“Forbidden Road,” from Better Man
“Winter Coat,” from Blitz
“Compress/Repress,” from Challengers
“Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late
“El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez
“Mi Camino,” from Emilia Pérez
“Sick in the Head,” from Kneecap
“Beyond,” from Moana 2
“Tell Me It’s You,” from Mufasa: The Lion King
“Piece by Piece,” from Piece by Piece
“Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing
“The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight
“Out of Oklahoma,” from Twisters
“Kiss the Sky,” from The Wild Robot
“Harper and Will Go West,” from Will & Harper

“Forbidden Road” was disqualified from the shortlist. So now you only have to guess 5/14 instead of 5/15.

We’ve had 5 shortlists to this point. The precursors since then have gone 4/5, 4/5, 5/5, 4/5, 3/5, 2/5. They generally guide the way (but it’s been shaky the past two years). Last year was a bit of an outlier given the limits on how many songs from a single film could be nominated, but generally it’s fairly straightforward.

Precursors:

• “El Mal” – CCA, Globes*
• “Beautiful That Way” – CCA, Globes
• “Compress/Repress” – CCA, Globes
• “Kiss the Sky” – CCA, Globes
• “Mi Camino” – CCA, Globes
• “Harper and Will Go West” – CCA

I have to assume “Compress/Repress” and “El Mal” are both on. And I’m not stupid, even without a precursor I’m guessing “The Journey.” They’ll nominate Diane Warren for breathing. So that’s three. I guess we’ll take “Kiss the Sky” too. They may leave Wild Robot off Score, but I think Song is an easy one for them to give it. And I guess maybe Miley for her song (but will they nominate it if they actually listen to it? Maybe it is better to leave it off…). There are six songs with precursors. I can’t assume both Emilia Pérez songs get on, and I don’t think “Harper and Will Go West” actually manages it. So I’ll leave “Harper and Will” off and swap “Mi Camino” for Diane Warren and see how it goes.

Absolutely terrible field this year, but at least “El Mal” will probably just sweep the whole thing, so it’ll just be a ho hum deal. (You could leave Wild Robot or Last Showgirl off and potentially go double Emilia Pérez if you wanted to. That’s not crazy. I just wonder if they’re really gonna get it all these extra nominations and take it into 11-13 territory. Seems excessive.)

I also don’t know what to suggest to you for non-precursor songs. Mufasa would shock me, Kneecap is too cool for this branch (I’d fucking love it). Twisters is not happening. Piece by Piece is regressive for them and I don’t see it. Blitz would be too good, which means they won’t do it. Moana… maybe, but seems weird no one else went there, right? Elton… I can see Elton. Sing Sing makes the most sense to me, if anything. Then Elton. Then Moana.

I am very prepared for a 3/5 or worse here (but hey, at least I know “El Mal” and Diane Warren will be my safety nets).

Best Original Song

“Beautiful That Way,” from The Last Showgirl

“Compress/Repress,” from Challengers

“El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez

“Kiss the Sky,” from The Wild Robot

“The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight

First Alternate: “Mi Camino,” from Emilia Pérez

Dark Horse: “Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing

Surprise: “Harper and Will Go West,” from Will & Harper; “Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Shocker: “Beyond,” from Moana 2; “Winter Coat,” from Blitz; “Piece by Piece,” from Piece by Piece

Don’t Guess: “Out of Oklahoma,” from Twisters; “Sick in the Head,” from Kneecap; “Tell Me It’s You,” from Mufasa: The Lion King

Would love to see: “Winter Coat” and “Like a Bird” get nominated.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Production Design.

Only 2 films since 2009 were nominated without precursors. None since 2011. If you don’t count SDSA, there is a third (Power of the Dog). ADG by itself has only missed 5 total nominees since 2010 (and BAFTA had 3 of those). You’re covered six ways from Sunday here.

Precursors:

• The Brutalist — ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA
• Conclave — ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA
• Dune Part Two — ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA
• Nosferatu — ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA
• Wicked — ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA
• Gladiator II — ADG, CCA, SDSA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice — ADG, SDSA, (BAFTA longlist)
• A Complete Unknown — ADG, SDSA, (BAFTA longlist)
• The Substance — ADG, SDSA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Alien: Romulus — ADG, SDSA
• Emilia Pérez — ADG, SDSA
• Furiosa — ADG, SDSA
• Civil War — ADG
• Saturday Night — ADG
• Twisters — ADG
• Maria — SDSA
• Megalopolis — SDSA
• Blitz — (BAFTA longlist)

This is a fascinating year, because we could see multiple contemporary films get nominated.

Start by taking off all the stuff that’s either not nominated by ADG (Blitz, Megalopolis, Maria) or clearly never gonna happen from ADG (Twisters, Civil War, Saturday Night). I also feel comfortable leaving off Furiosa, Alien, Emilia Perez and The Substance as well. The last two are contemporary, and we’ve already got one of those in major contention (which is already a lot for them), and the other two just have no real traction and would seem weird to have this as their only nomination.

That takes us down to 8 films. I should point out that 5 of them hit every precursor. So really we can end this discussion right there. Especially since, going back to 2009 and 3 precursors, only 4 films hit all precursors and weren’t nominated (Inglourious Basterds, Black Swan, Joker, French Dispatch). So it’s infrequent and you should probably go with the precursors. But we’ll work through them anyway.

The Brutalist, Nosferatu and Wicked all seem like locks. Brutalist is about architecture, Wicked has all the fantasy musical sets and Nosferatu is basically 19th century castle and Europe architecture porn. I’d be shocked if they left any of those off. Dune… they could, but I don’t see why they would. And Conclave… it is contemporary, and I worry about that. That said, if I’m taking off either, what’s gonna go on in its place?

Is it Beetlejuice? Doubt it. A Burton film hasn’t been nominated here in 15 years and this one doesn’t really feel particularly liked or unique. Complete Unknown? Maybe. They’d be voting for the era and the feel more than anything, since it’s not like a ton of sets stand out (outside of the period dressing of Greenwich Village. And then Gladiator… which… that’s the one I can really see making it. If anything is gonna make it on over Conclave, it’s probably Gladiator.

In fact, fuck it. Let’s take Gladiator. You gotta realize how infrequently contemporary films (non-musical, non-fantasy) get nominated here. Here’s a list (reverse chronological): The Father, Parasite, The Birdcage, Prince of Tides, Rain Man, Hannah and Her Sisters, Witness, Terms of Endearment, The China Syndrome, Interiors, California Suite, Heaven Can Wait, All the President’s Men. So, we’ve gone back to All the President’s Men and it’s only happened 13 times. It’s only happened 3 times in the past 35 years. Also, the two recent times it’s happened, the sets were a major part of the story and almost a character in the story. But I will say, they were both highly-nominated films up for Best Picture, which Conclave is. So I can easily see it on. I just feel like it’s smarter to not guess contemporary than to guess it. But this feels like one I’m gonna get wrong. But at least I’m highlighting something as I do it. The outcome is the learning experience for the future.

Best Production Design

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

First Alternate: Conclave

Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown

Surprise: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Substance

Shocker: Alien: Romulus, Emilia Pérez, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Don’t Guess: Blitz, Maria, Saturday Night, Megalopolis, Challengers, Civil War, Twisters

Would love to see: I’m okay with any version of my top seven.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Costume Design.

Only 6 films since 2009 were nominated without a precursor (never more than 1 in a year), and CDG has predicted at least 4/5 all but twice since 2005 (and even those were 3/5). Since 2009, CDG’s only missed 14 total nominees. This one’s generally easy.

Precursors:

• Conclave – CDG, BAFTA, CCA
• Nosferatu – CDG, BAFTA, CCA
• Wicked – CDG, BAFTA, CCA
• Dune Part Two – CDG, CCA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Gladiator II – CDG, CCA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Maria – CDG, CCA
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – CDG, (BAFTA longlist)
• Emilia Pérez – CDG, (BAFTA longlist)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – CDG, (BAFTA longlist)
• The Book of Clarence – CDG
• Borderlands – CDG
• Challengers – CDG
• The Fall Guy – CDG
• Saturday Night – CDG
• The Substance – CDG
• Blitz – BAFTA
• A Complete Unknown — BAFTA

Since 2009, only 4 times were films nominated for all precursors not nominated (Black Swan, Saving Mr. Banks, Brooklyn, Bohemian Rhapsody). In 3 of those instances, something was nominated with no precursors (I Am Love, Grandmaster, The Revenant). With the fourth, looks like they just went with something else over it (Buster Scruggs over Bohemian Rhapsody).

Three films here hit everything — Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked. Conclave is contemporary, so we can flirt with taking it off later, but for now, let’s just put all three of those on and work from there.

I’m gonna start by removing the other contemporary films (plus the ones clearly never happening) from consideration — Challengers, Fall Guy, Borderlands, Saturday Night, Book of Clarence. I’m also taking off Furiosa, with no other precursors and no traction anywhere. Also taking off Blitz, which got a hometown nomination and that’s it. The Substance and Emilia Pérez are also both contemporary them nominating two contemporary films in a year would shock me.

We’re left with five films for two spots (three if you’re planning to leave Conclave off). Complete Unknown only has BAFTA and has the least amount of precursors, but three films since 2009 have managed that path (Invisible Woman, Darkest Hour and Buster Scruggs), so it’s not unheard of. The designer is Arianne Phillips, a three-time nominee who was also nominated for Walk the Line. This is a very possible nominee. Next is Beetlejuice. Which, I know Burton films are synonymous with this category, but he hasn’t had something nominated since Alice in Wonderland. And while there have been 5 films since 2009 nominated with only the guild as a precursor, it’s only happened once since 2013 (Pinocchio). But, Colleen Atwood is the designer, and she’s won four times. My gut says no, but obviously this is very possible too.

Next is Dune, which was nominated last time. Jacqueline West. Guild and CCA, but missed BAFTA. That’s telling, isn’t it? Makes me think they’re likely to leave this off. Then again, seeing what BAFTA nominated and knowing Blitz won’t get the votes, it’s very possible it sneaks on. It’s a close call. Gladiator’s in the same position. Guild and CCA, missed BAFTA. The first one won the Oscar (same designer, too. Janty Yates). It’s definitely in play, though the lack of real love for the film could work against it. Also on the CDG/CCA path — Maria. Which makes a lot of sense. Designer is Massimo Cantini Parrini, previously twice-nominated (Pinocchio, Cyrano). Like the others, it feels very possible. Just watching the film, you can see how easily it can make it on. The lack of BAFTA longlist makes me see it as slightly lesser, though. Feels like BAFTA would’ve jumped on that had they actually liked the work.

Costumes is usually one where you gotta pick your poison and hope for the best. This one could go very south for you this year if they decide to go off the board. I only really feel safe with Nosferatu and Wicked. Conclave can get left off because it’s contemporary, Dune and Gladiator can get left off for sequel fatigue, and nothing else really strikes you as ‘oh man, those costumes need to get nominated’. So you’re just guessing. I gotta take Conclave, absent something more compelling. And while I do think Complete Unknown or Maria can sneak on, Dune and Gladiator have a scope that I think makes them more likely choices. So let’s go with them.

Best Costume Design

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

First Alternate: A Complete Unknown

Dark Horse: Maria

Surprise: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blitz

Shocker: Emilia Pérez, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Substance

Don’t Guess: The Book of Clarence, Borderlands, Challengers, The Fall Guy, Saturday Night, The Brutalist, Megalopolis

Would love to see: A Complete Unknown would be cool to see.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Makeup & Hairstyling.

Shortlist:

The Apprentice
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
A Different Man
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
The Substance
Waltzing with Brando
Wicked

This category is usually easy as long as you abide by three simple rules:

1. If it doesn’t have precursors and isn’t foreign, it’s not happening.
2. Acting transformation (particularly a nominated one)? It’s on.
3. Use the precursors, use basic logic.

There have been 43 nominees since we’ve had 3 precursors (2013-present). Only 5 films were nominated without one. 4 were foreign, the other was Dallas Buyers Club (2013, and blatantly obvious). You’re covered.

Precursors:

• The Substance – MU+HS x3, BAFTA, CCA
• Wicked – MU+HS x2, BAFTA, CCA
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – MU+HS x3, CCA, (BAFTA longlist)
• Emilia Pérez – MU+HS, BAFTA
• A Different Man – MU+HS, CCA
• Dune Part Two – BAFTA, CCA
• Nosferatu – BAFTA, CCA
• The Apprentice — (BAFTA longlist)
• Maria — n/a
• Waltzing with Brando — n/a

Three films, no precursors, take ’em off. Let it happen. Hasn’t happened yet outside an Actor-winning performance eleven years ago. That leaves you with 7 films for 5 spots.

Just thinking purely about memorable makeup — The Substance hit every precursor and clearly has memorable work (not to mention the acting nomination). Take it. A Different Man has pretty significant use of prosthetics for its first half, so I’d say take that too. And Wicked, with all the hair and the green… seems like an easy add for them, so I’ll take that too. This is the kind of category it’ll get instead of Director or Screenplay. After that… tough. They might be over Dune, but I don’t know if you can leave it off. So I’ll take that as four. That leaves Nosferatu and Emilia Pérez for fifth, and just feeling like Emilia Pérez can’t get nominated for everything, I’m taking Nosferatu. We’ll see. I’m feeling a 3/5 here, but hopefully I can sneak an extra one on and get to 4/5.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

A Different Man

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

First Alternate: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Dark Horse: Emilia Pérez

Surprise: The Apprentice, Maria

Shocker: Waltzing with Brando

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would love to see: They should do okay no matter what.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Visual Effects.

Longlist (19 of 20):

Alien: Romulus
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Better Man
Civil War
Deadpool and Wolverine
Dune: Part Two
The Fall Guy
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Gladiator II
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Here
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Mufasa: The Lion King
A Quiet Place: Day One
Spaceman
The Substance
Twisters
Wicked

They only announced 19 of the usual 20. (Also, not a great year for effects, huh?)

Shortlist:

Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Civil War
Deadpool & Wolverine
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Mufasa: The Lion King
Twisters
Wicked

Furiosa getting left off the shortlist in favor of a few of these is crazy. Anyway…

This past decade, only 4 films were nominated without a top VES Best Effects or Supporting Effects or BAFTA: Kubo, Love and Monsters, Wakanda Forever and Godzilla Minus One. Two of those you saw coming, Kubo was more ‘will they do it’ and Love and Monsters was totally out of nowhere. Between VES and BAFTA, it’s not difficult.

Precursors:

• Dune Part Two – VES* x7, BAFTA, CCA
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – VES* x6, BAFTA, CCA
• Better Man – VES* x4, BAFTA, CCA
• Gladiator II – VES x2, BAFTA, CCA
• Wicked – VES, BAFTA, CCA
• Civil War — VES* x2, BAFTA longlist
• Alien — VES, BAFTA longlist
• Deadpool & Wolverine — VES, BAFTA longlist
• Twisters — VES* x2
• Mufasa — VES* x3

This is a category where you barely even need the precursors to know what they’re not gonna do. Deadpool is never gonna get nominated here. Missed the guild almost entirely and BAFTA didn’t nominate it. This branch is not motivated by money. Alien also missed all major nominations and would count as a moderate (but welcome) surprise (though remember how they’ve shunned practical effects in recent years). Could happen because of a weak year with them rejecting other things, but precursor-wise it would be a major outlier. Civil War technically could fit, but it would seem a bit of a weird inclusion for them. I’d rather just let them go there and then assess after the fact.

Again, we’re down to 7 choices for 5 spots. Dune is obviously on, Planet of the Apes is on. All those have been nominated. And Better Man hit every precursor solidly. That’s three. After that — VES nominated Musfasa and Twisters. Twisters feels too mainstream for them (and too easy to dismiss the effects) and Mufasa seems to be openly disliked. Maybe on reflex they’ll go there, but I think they’re over the ‘fully animated’ thing. Meanwhile, BAFTA (historically the better VFX indicator) nominated Gladiator and Wicked. Which tells me to go with them first. So I’m taking them. Wicked could swap for something else, but I feel okay with the five I choice and letting them take whatever they want from the rest of the field for one of the spots.

Best Visual Effects

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

First Alternate: Civil War

Dark Horse: Mufasa: The Lion King

Surprise: Twisters, Alien: Romulus

Shocker: Deadpool & Wolverine

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would love to see: They’ll get the right ones.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Sound.

Shortlist:

Alien: Romulus
Blitz
A Complete Unknown
Deadpool & Wolverine
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Joker: Folie à Deux
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Since 2000, only 2 movies have been nominated without a precursor: a Hobbit movie and The Creator. The Creator is the only one to happen since Sound become a singular category (with a shortlist). Until we go off the rails multiple years, you’re fine with precursors and logic. The shortlist has made this one quite easy, given all the precursors we get.

Precursors:

• Dune: Part Two — BAFTA, CAS, MPSE x3 (D+ADR, FX+F, Music)
• Wicked — BAFTA, CAS, MPSE x2 (D+ADR, Music)
• Deadpool & Wolverine — CAS, MPSE x3 (D+ADR, FX+F, Music)
• A Complete Unknown — CAS, MPSE x2 (D+ADR, Music), (BAFTA longlist)
• Gladiator II — CAS, BAFTA
• The Wild Robot — CAS*, MPSE x1 (Animation)
• Blitz — BAFTA
• Emilia Pérez — MPSE x2 (Music, Intl), (BAFTA longlist)
• Alien: Romulus — MPSE x2 (D+ADR, FX+F)
• Joker: Folie à Deux –n/a

The thing about Sound is, you can tell based on the reception/prestige level of the films what definitely isn’t gonna happen. For example: Deadpool? Never gonna happen (also, Marvel has only ever been nominated for Sound twice — for Iron Man and Black Panther). Joker? They hated it. They’re not nominating it. Alien? Too mainstream (and the previous Alien films weren’t nominated. Aliens, yes. But the recent ones, not a single one). So without trying, you’re down to 7 choices. Almost impossible not to get at least 4 right. And also, before even looking at the precursors, Dune is a gimme, Wicked is a gimme and A Complete Unknown is a gimme. Emilia Pérez, based on how it’s looking to do and based on the rest of the shortlist, seems likely as well. Then you have Gladiator — Ridley, who is respected and would get on for Gladiator. Blitz — war movie, but no one saw it. Still, you gotta respect it with BAFTA. And Wild Robot, animated but beloved. I’ll take Ridley there and just let them do what they’re gonna do. Again, seems like six films for five spots.

Best Sound

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Gladiator II

Wicked

First Alternate: Blitz

Dark Horse: Deadpool & Wolverine

Surprise: Alien: Romulus, The Wild Robot

Shocker: Joker: Folie á Deux

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would love to see: Alien get nominated.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Animated Feature. 31 eligibles this year:

Art College 1994
Captain Avispa
Chicken for Linda!
The Colors Within
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie
Despicable Me 4
Flow
The Garfield Movie
Ghost Cat Anzu
The Glassworker
The Imaginary
Inside Out 2
Kensuke’s Kingdom
Kung Fu Panda 4
Living Large
Look Back
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Mars Express
Memoir of a Snail
Moana 2
Piece by Piece
Rocket Club: Across the Cosmos
Sirocco and the Kingdom of Winds
Spellbound
Sultana’s Dream
That Christmas
Thelma the Unicorn
Transformers One
Ultraman: Rising
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Just because, again, I didn’t do my preview articles this year, I’ve watched, as of today, 23/31 films (still have not seen Art College, Captain Avispa, Colors Within, Day the Earth Blew Up, Ghost Cat Anzu, Living Large, Rocket Club or Sultana’s Dream). Here’s my personal ranking of them all:

1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Look Back
4. Moana 2
5. Inside Out 2
6. The Glassworker
   
7. Memoir of a Snail
8. Transformers One
9. Kensuke’s Kingdom
10. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
11. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
    
12. Chicken for Linda!
13. Piece by Piece
14. That Christmas
15. Mars Express
16. Sirocco and the Kingdom of the Winds
17. The Imaginary
18. Ultraman: Rising
19. Spellbound
20. The Garfield Movie
21. Kung Fu Panda 4
22. Despicable Me 4
23. Thelma the Unicorn

Anyway, into the analysis…

Only 4 films have been nominated (and only 1 since 2004) that scored below 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (and one was at 69%). Only 2 films have been nominated without a significant precursor, both before the PGA gave out an animated award. Only 1 nominee (Ferdinand) has only been nominated by the PGA. It’s usually pretty easy, in other words.

Also worth noting that in the history of the category (23 years), only 6 films were nominated without being nominated at the Annies for Best Feature or Best Independent Feature. Of those, four of them (Elemental, Over the Moon, Shark Tale and Treasure Planet) had at least 6 Annie nominations, three of those came within the first three years of the category, one of those is Jimmy Neutron (from the first year of the category), and only one of those is a remote ‘surprise’ (Ferdinand, which got on with just 2 Annie nominations and a Globe nomination). So yeah, usually pretty easy.

Precursors:

• Wild Robot – Annies x10*, PGA, BAFTA x2, CCA, Globes
• Inside Out 2 – Annies x7*, PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
• Wallace & Gromit – Annies x7*, PGA, BAFTA x2, CCA, Globes
• Flow – Annies x3*, PGA, BAFTA (x2), CCA, Globes*, NBR*
• Moana 2 – Annies x4, PGA, Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• Memoir of a Snail – Annies x2*, CCA, Globes, (BAFTA longlist)
• That Christmas – Annies x6*, (BAFTA longlist)
• Ultraman: Rising – Annies x4*
• Kensuke’s Kingdom – Annies x3*, (BAFTA (F))
• Kung Fu Panda 4 – Annies x3*
• Chicken for Linda! – Annies x3*
• Spellbound – Annies x2, (BAFTA longlist (F))
• Look Back – Annies x1*
• Mars Express – Annies x1*
• Despicable Me 4 – Annies x1, (BAFTA longlist)
• Piece by Piece – Annies x1
• Transformers One – Annies x1

Not that we don’t already know what the main seven or eight choices are, but again, go by precursors, go by films with acclaim and go by what the Annies nominated in their top categories. It’s all there. The biggest question you’re gonna face with this one seems to be whether they’re gonna nominate Disney or Pixar (since based on their recent history, I’d be surprised if it was both).

Wild Robot is the most feted animated film of the year, so that’s on without question. And Aardman always gets on, so that’s two. Flow is shortlisted for International Feature, for god’s sake. So that’s three. And Inside Out has all the precursors while Moana does not, so that’s four. You should not guess anything else outside of those four to start.

That leaves your fifth spot. Memoir of a Snail fits the mold of what usually gets nominated (lately). Given that Moana missed the Annie for Best Feature and didn’t get BAFTA, I’m thinking we’re more likely to see that left off. And looking at what else is there, if somehow it’s not Memoir of a Snail, it’s probably something else of a more artistic bend like Chicken for Linda, rather than something more mainstream like That Christmas. That’s how this usually goes.

Still, with four locks to start from, you’re in a great spot. So go with your gut. Memoir of a Snail feels pretty easy for them, so I’m not overthinking this.

Best Animated Feature

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

First Alternate: Moana 2

Dark Horse: That Christmas

Surprise: Look Back, Kensuke’s Kingdom

Shocker: Chicken for Linda!, Ultraman: Rising, Spellbound

Don’t Guess: Art College 1994, Captain Avispa, The Colors Within, Day the Earth Blew Up, Despicable Me 4, Garfield Movie, Ghost Cat Anzu, Glassworker, Imaginary, Kung Fu Panda 4, Living Large, Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim, Mars Express, Piece by Piece, Rocket Club, Sirocco & Kingdom of the Winds, Sultana’s Dream, Thelma the Unicorn, Transformers One

Would love to see: Both Look Back and Flow be nominated.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

International Feature.

Shortlist:

I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Universal Language (Canada)
Waves (Czech Republic)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Touch (Iceland)
Kneecap (Ireland)
Vermiglio (Italy)
Flow (Latvia)
Armand (Norway)
From Ground Zero (Palestine)
Dahomey (Senegal)
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
Santosh (United Kingdom)

There’s no real strategy for this category. Recently the winner has been pretty obvious and you generally know from word of mouth and precursors at least three of the major contenders. The rest you just sort of pick up from experience, seeing how they vote, and sort of knowing how certain countries generally do. We’ll work through it.

I also want to point out that, as of today, I’ve seen 10/15 of the shortlist. I haven’t gotten around to watching Seed of the Sacred Fig yet and still haven’t been able to see I’m Still Here, Waves, Girl with the Needle and From Ground Zero. Hopeful to see Girl with the Needle this weekend, but the rest have fully eluded me to this point, so I’m flying blind there. It’s precursors only on those.

Precursors:

• Seed of the Sacred Fig — BAFTA, CCA, Globes, NBR*
• I’m Still Here — BAFTA, CCA, Globes, NBR
• Emilia Pérez — BAFTA, CCA, Globes*
• Kneecap — BAFTA, CCA
• Girl with the Needle — Globes, NBR, (BAFTA longlist)
• Flow — CCA, Indie Spirit, (BAFTA longlist)
• Vermiglio — Globes
• Santosh — NBR
• Universal Language — NBR

As I always do, I like to break down the history of all the countries nominated (because you do get a sense of which countries tend to get nominated more than others, and you see a pattern of how they typically like to get a newcomer involved if they can). The shortlists began in 2006. This is our 19th year with shortlists.

• Brazil – 4 nominations in 54 submissions. They’ve only been shortlisted once (2007). They’ve not been nominated since 1998 (which was also was a Walter Salles film).
• Canada – 7 nominations in 50 submissions, 1 win (2003). They’ve been shortlisted 7 times, with 4 nominations (none since 2012). They haven’t been shortlisted since 2016.
• Czech Republic — 9 nominations in 54 submissions with 3 wins. They’ve not been nominated since 2003 and have been shortlisted twice.
• Denmark — 14 nominations in 62 submissions with 4 wins. They’ve been shortlisted 12 times (in 19 years of shortlists), nominated 8 times and won twice (2010, 2020).
• France — 38 nominations in 72 submissions, with 9 wins and 3 honorary wins. This is their 10th shortlist. They’ve been nominated 4 times since 2006 (but not since 2019).
• Germany — 22 nominations in 65 submissions, with 4 wins. They’ve been shortlisted 12 times, with 7 nominations.
• Iceland — 1 nomination (1991) in 44 submissions. They’ve been shortlisted 3 times, 2 of which came in the past three years.
• Ireland — 1 nomination (2022) in 11 submissions, shortlisted twice.
• Italy — 30 nominations in 72 submissions, with 11 wins (and 3 honorary awards).  This is their 5th shortlist. They’ve been nominated 3 of the 4 previous times (though those were films by Paolo Sorrentino (2) and Matteo Garrone).
• Latvia — 16 submissions, never nominated. This is their first shortlist.
• Norway — 6 nominations in 36 submissions (no wins). 4 shortlists, 2 nominations (most recently 2021).
• Palestine — 2 nominations in 17 submissions. They’ve only been shortlisted once before (2013, which was a nomination).
• Senegal — never nominated in 6 submissions, but they’ve made the shortlist twice previously (once by the same director).
• Thailand — never nominated in 31 submissions. This is their first shortlist.
• UK — 3 nominations in 21 submissions. Shortlisted twice, nominated once (last year).

Just looking at this and having seen most of the nominees, I feel pretty confident that I’m at least in a position to do okay here. They’re always gonna do what they’re gonna do, and you can’t really prepare for that. But if you can at least feel like you’re not totally guessing, that’s as good as you can get.

Like most recent years, we have a clear winner/favorite at the top, which at least gives you a sturdy foundation. Emilia Pérez is obviously going to get nominated, since it’s going to be nominated for Best Picture. So that’s one. I’m Still Here has gotten legitimate precursors and won a Golden Globe, plus Walter Salles has been nominated here before. That seems like an easy inclusion. Seed of the Sacred Fig has also been the most lauded foreign film of the year from a precursor standpoint, so I’m not picking a list without that on it. So I’ve got three. Now let’s see what else we can do.

I do not know what they’re gonna do with Flow, but my gut tells me that they’re gonna consider it more of an animated film than something that should get nominated here. You can guess it, but their history does not include stuff like this (and before you say Flee, that was a documentary that was told via animation. Flow is a straight animated movie). I’m going with it being more of a surprise than something you should definitely guess.

Having seen Universal Language, it would really surprise me if they voted for that. They generally don’t go for absurdist, and all things being equal, I’d be surprised to see that get on. Waves also feels a bit more ‘mainstream’ for their usual tastes. I haven’t seen it, but the overall look of it and the trailer makes it seem like it’s trying to be an American-style thriller. And that is not what this branch votes for. So I’m going with it’s not happening until it does. Santosh also — don’t wanna say it’s mainstream, because it’s certainly not a straight thriller or anything, but it definitely also does not feel like what voters respond to in this branch, and since we have to eliminate ten films and make choices somewhere, I’m going with that one’s not gonna get nominated.

Dahomey — we’ve had a few instances in recent years where a documentary was shortlisted in multiple categories. It’s easy to point to Flee, Honeyland and Collective as instances where the films were nominated in multiple categories, but there’s also instances like 20 Days in Mariupol, Four Daughters and The Mole Agent where it wasn’t. I don’t see that film as fitting in the mold of something that gets nominated here, and I do think they’re more likely to leave it in Documentary only, if it’s gonna get nominated at all. I feel comfortable not guessing it. Armand — solid film with a great performance from Renate Reinsve, but I can’t help but feel like they only shortlisted it because it’s directed by Ingmar Bergman’s grandson (they do that. There’s at least one or two ‘respect’ shortlistings in this category each year). I’m not sure the overall film is cohesive enough for them. Wouldn’t be shocked to see it, but I would be a little surprised, given what they’d likely be not voting for in its place.

How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies is the type of title that I would automatically, without hesitation, vote for in Live Action Short. Here, I feel like they will dismiss it as a lightweight comedy, which it’s not. It’s actually quite a heartwarming film. But I don’t know if it’s gonna get enough traction to get votes to get on. It’s a contender, but I feel like it’s more like a ‘oh, it made it, cool’ than a ‘has to go on the list’. I don’t think I’m guessing it, but it’s not an unreasonable fifth choice if you wanted to take a shot somewhere. Touch — I liked it quite a bit, but it also feels very straightforward and predictable. Which is not what they go for. The director, of course, has made several Hollywood productions (2 Guns and Everest) and I wonder if that’s the reason it’s even here. It’s likable enough to get votes, but definitely does not feel in line with what usually gets nominated. I’d call that a surprise at best given what else is here.

Kneecap clearly has support with the UK contingent, which helps. It’s a very likable film, too. Conventional wisdom says you should guess it, but then again, I know this branch. And this branch does not vote for stuff like this here. So I’ll be happily surprised, but I’m not doing it. They are much more likely to take Dahomey, in my mind, than this. Vermiglio — nice little film. It feels like it can make it on. I shy away from wanting to take it because Italy generally hasn’t gotten nominated here a lot. And when they are, it’s Paolo Sorrentino and Matteo Garrone. They can surprise me, but… it’s like France. And I realize that’s a bad analogy this year, but, most of the time, you see France on a shortlist, you assume it’s gonna make it on because of the country and its history in cinema. But France also, while making the shortlist most years, has only been nominated 4 times since 2006. Same as Italy. Just because the country has more of a film industry than others (and more eyeballs on their films, therefore more precursors) does not mean it’s automatic. So, I’m gonna let them go there. I feel like they’re more likely to take something else.

I’m left with two of the films I haven’t seen, From Ground Zero and The Girl with the Needle. And, having found a reason not to take everything else, I’m almost gonna be guessing them by default. Which tells me I’m certainly gonna be missing something. It’s never that easy. But most years I can spot that random nominee that’s gonna get on (Man Who Sold His Skin, Lunana). This year, I can’t. And last year, they surprised me by taking two films I did not expect them to go for, so basically who the fuck knows.

From Ground Zero is a tough one for me because it’s an anthology film, with 22 short films from 22 directors. And that is not what they usually go for, which gives me pause. They’ve gone anthology before (Wild Tales), but that was a wildly different circumstance than this. So I’m worried it’s a red herring. Girl with the Needle feels right, though. The black and white, the subject matter… that absolutely feels like them, so I feel okay there.

Okay, fuck it. I have to feel good with my foundation of the three, and Girl with the Needle feels good as four, so let’s do From Ground Zero and go from there. I almost did How to Make Millions, but I decided for the political one over that. I wanna see what they do. If they take anything below my surprise tier (save maybe Dahomey), I’m gonna be legitimately surprised. But let’s see what the final category is first.

Best International Feature

Emilia Pérez (France)

From Ground Zero (Palestine)

The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

I’m Still Here (Brazil)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

First Alternate: How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

Dark Horse: Kneecap (Ireland)

Surprise: Flow (Latvia), Vermiglio (Italy)

Shocker: Dahomey (Senegal), Universal Language (Canada), Touch (Iceland)

Don’t Guess: Armand (Norway), Santosh (United Kingdom), Waves (Czech Republic)

Would love to see:

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Documentary Feature.

Shortlist:

The Bibi Files
Black Box Diaries
Dahomey
Daughters
Eno
Frida
Hollywoodgate
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Queendom
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Union
Will & Harper

This category is a crap shoot most years. The only known is that they’re usually gonna leave off some mainstream consensus great documentary in favor of something political or artistic.

I’ve watched 13 of the 15 so far (and I’ll be seeing Eno on Friday. Porcelain War is the only one that’s eluded me to this point). Just to run them down: Bibi Files was fine, really liked Black Box Diaries, Dahomey didn’t do it for me, Daughters was okay, Frida I liked because it was put together in a unique way, Hollywoodgate I don’t know how the fuck that got made and how that guy’s still alive (loved it for that alone), No Other Land was good, Queendom was okay, Ibelin didn’t do it for me, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat was awesome, Sugarcane was really good, Union was okay and Will & Harper was likable. Wasn’t thrilled about the crop this year, but we got what we got.

Precursors:

• Sugarcane — DGA, CCA x8*, IDA x5, NBR*
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — DGA, CCA x4, IDA x4*, Indie Spirit
• The Remarkable Life of Ibelin — CCA x5, IDA x2, (BAFTA longlist)
• Black Box Diaries — BAFTA, CCA x1, IDA x3, NBR
• No Other Land — BAFTA, IDA x2**, NBR, Indie Spirit
• Will & Harper — BAFTA, CCA x4**, NBR
• Daughters — DGA, BAFTA, CCA x6*
• Dahomey — CCA x2, IDA x1, NBR
• Porcelain War — PGA, DGA, CCA x2
• Frida — CCA x2, IDA x1*
• Queendom — IDA x3*
• Hollywoodgate — DGA
• The Bibi Files — (BAFTA longlist)
• Eno — n/a
• Union — n/a

I feel relatively confident about this one. Mostly because I know which ones they won’t go for. Which won’t stop them from going for them, but I’ve been around this category enough and in recent years to know that they’ve basically backed themselves into a type. We all know that they rule with an iron fist to keep mainstream stuff (Life Itself, Won’t You Be My Neighbor) off the final category. Why? Because they know people will vote for those and ignore everything else, so they keep it off because I guess it makes them think it’ll make more people care. They’ve definitely trended more toward foreign in the past few years and more political. They haven’t nominated a populist documentary since Summer of Soul in 2021. It’s two years of this. So based on all that alone, I can probably eliminate about half the list.

Eno is a documentary, like 32 Sounds last year, that’s there because of how it’s made/exhibited. I know they won’t vote for it because most of them wouldn’t have been able to see it. Meanwhile, Will and Harper is way too mainstream for this branch. I would be truly shocked if they allowed that to be nominated after all the stuff they gatekept out the past decade. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin is about a gamer with an illness, and it’s just not their speed or the type of thing they understand (Short? Maybe. Here? Highly doubt it). Can’t see it happening. Quendom — doesn’t feel like them. Again. Short? Maybe. Here, highly doubt it. Frida — from the editor of two previously shortlisted docs. It’s here out of respect, but they’ll never let it get on. That’s not how this branch works. (I must reiterate now — past performance is not indicative of future results. They do crazy shit all the time. But all I can use to guess is what they usually do.)

Right there, without even trying, I’ve cut a third of the list. Next, Daughters — lovely idea, can’t see them going for it. It’s too limited in scope and not ‘message’ enough for them. Based on how they’ve voted, I would be surprised if they go there, even though the precursors for this are very strong and people think the emotion will carry it through. We’ll see. Meanwhile, Union — we know Hollywood loves a union, but it’s about the Amazon workers who unionized — I don’t know. It’s 50/50. The doc doesn’t feel that well-put-together that they’ll galvanize around it. I’m leaning toward just letting them nominating it. Put it this way — I haven’t seen them nominate something like this in a while.

Next, we should talk about Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat. Because it’s a beautifully made documentary, very stylized. A lot to like there. But on the other hand — kinda mainstream. My gut tells me they’ll find a way to shun it, even though most people watching the shortlist would think ‘of course that gets on’. The title is such that I can see people voting for it on that alone (because people will do that). That doc is gonna be the lynchpin of what I end up picking. So we’ll leave it aside until we have to deal with it. The Bibi Files is another one you really need to make a decision on — because it’s about the corruption of Benjamin Netanyahu, and how that corruption has led to what’s happening to Palestine. Which, in case you didn’t pay attention, is kind of a hot button issue in Hollywood. People fall on both sides of that very strongly (though only one side seems to be getting punished for voicing those views, if you notice), and that makes me curious how the voting is gonna go on this one. My gut tells me to assume they’re not gonna nominate it and then be surprised if and when they do. But again, that’s another one that is sort of the lynchpin of what your list is gonna be.

Now we have Black Box Diaries. Conventional wisdom tells me this should make it, but I’d also seen them straight up leave off what I’d consider one of the best documentaries (last year’s Beyond Utopia coming to mind, which was great, nominated up and down the precursors, and they just… left it off). Normally I’d lean toward not guessing it so as not to be let down when they don’t. But I think this fits for them. I worry the subject is too ‘in the past’ for them (because remember, the Me Too movement is over seven years ago at this point. In Hollywood, that’s forever. They’ve moved on to other issues they can solve by voting for a documentary about it and patting themselves on the back). I’m taking it. I want to see them not nominate this.

Next, Dahomey — shortlisted in International Feature too and a very artistic documentary, the likes of which they’ve loved here in recent years. I feel like on both of those things you have to guess it. I had it off for a long time but last minute it went back to it because it makes too much sense. Look at their most recent categories… that fits more than most things. Also, Porcelain War — haven’t seen it, but everything I hear about it makes it sound too good for them to pass up. So that’s on. And No Other Land is exactly the type of thing they love here — topical and about a major issue in the world. And Sugarcane — if they leave that off, then I truly can’t guess what they’re gonna go for. Because that is tailor-made for them. Also happens to be one of the most feted documentaries of the year. So, with my insistence of Black Box Diaries being on my list, I’ve got my five. I feel pretty good about that.

Essentially — I think Will and Harper and Frida are too ‘mainstream’ for them. I think Ibelin, Eno and Queendom just don’t fit their tastes enough as a branch. I don’t think Union is made well enough for them (and the issue isn’t big enough for them to vote for it regardless). I think Daughters is 50/50. Might be too ‘mainstream’ for them, but the emotion could carry it through. Hollywoodgate is such a feat of filmmaking (dude embedded himself in the Taliban and came out with the footage. INSANE) that I almost can’t see how they don’t vote for it, but they have weird fucking standards here. And then Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat and Bibi Files are the two wild cards. Bibi Files openly has a Hollywood producer they all know in it, and I worry how much they’re not gonna wanna rock that boat. And ‘Soundtrack’, while great, might veer too much to the mainstream for them and they might deliberately leave it off. Like I said, wild cards. Black Box Diaries is my own little line in the sand, but the other four, Dahomey, Porcelain War, No Other Land and Sugarcane? They’re all exactly the type of thing this branch has been voting for. So let’s see what they can do to fuck that up again this year.

Best Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries

Dahomey

Porcelain War

No Other Land

Sugarcane

First Alternate: Hollywoodgate

Dark Horse: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

Surprise: Daughters, The Bibi Files

Shocker: Frida, Union, Will & Harper

Don’t Guess: Eno, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Would love to see: Black Box Diaries get nominated.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Documentary Short.

Shortlist:

Chasing Roo
Death by Numbers
Eternal Father
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instrumentals of a Beating Heart
Keeper
Makalya’s Voice: A Letter to the World
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Planetwalker
The Quilters
Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr
A Swim Lesson
Until He’s Back

I’ve seen 10 of these, by the way. Have not seen Chasing Roo, Death by Numbers, Keeper, Once Upon a Time in Ukraine or The Quilters.

There are no real precursors here, but, more than the other Shorts categories, the Academy has definitely has a ‘type’. You can usually, even if you’re unable to see some or even most of the shortlist, gauge by premise alone which ones are likely to make it on.

However, we do technically have a few precursors. CCA nominated I Am Ready Warden, Incident, Makayla’s Voice, Once Upon a Time in Ukraine and Only Girl in the Orchestra (which won), and IDA nominated Until He’s Back and Instruments of a Beating Heart (which won).

Theoretically you can pick straight from those and go for it. That would’ve worked last year. But before you automatically do that, let’s just go through the paces.

First, let’s do what I always do to walk people through this category — look at the past ten winners and what they were about:

• Last Repair Shop — about the people who fix school instruments for kids (essentially helping keep music in schools)
• Elephant Whisperers — a couple work to keep an orphaned elephant alive
• Queen of Basketball — under-told story of a pioneering Black women’s basketball player
• Colette — former French Resistance fighter goes back to the concentration camp where her brother was killed after 70+ years.
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone — young girls in Afghanistan learn to skateboard (and read and write)
• Period. End of Sentence — women in India fight against the stigma of menstruation and begin manufacturing their own sanitary pads
• Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 — artist struggles with mental illness and creates art
• The White Helmets — first responders in Syria go into the wreckage to pull out survivors
• A Girl in the River — woman in Pakistan who survived an ‘honor killing’ tries to make peace with the family members who did it
• Crisis Hotline — about the center that fields calls for veterans in distress

This category was, for a long time, automatic. Look at the first 60% of that list — most of the time the winner is (x) overcoming (y) to accomplish (z). Artist overcomes mental illness to create art. Women overcome the oppression of Middle Eastern culture to read/write/skateboard. Or, the winner is something political and topical. My feeling is always that the Academy looks for a problem they think they can ‘fix’ by shining a light on it and giving out an award.

The past couple years have been slightly different. 2020 onward, they’ve bucked that trend somewhat. 2020 was the one that keyed me into it. Because that Holocaust doc, which would’ve been an automatic winner 20 years ago, was not really the norm for them at the time. And it beat a doc about a Black girl who was murdered by a convenience store owner, a doc about the Hong Kong protests and a doc about children in Yemen dying of starvation. ALL of which were exactly the type of thing that would’ve won previously. And then, 2021, Queen of Basketball was more mainstream for them. But there, the rest of the category didn’t have a choice like one they’d normally take. Same for Elephant Whisperers. Even more mainstream. Also a lot of money behind it. But that category was missing that clear ‘message’ doc. And then last year — 50/50. Part message, part ‘it was directed by Kris Bowers and had a lot of top down support’. Which happens sometimes in these categories. I’m not ready to fully say the voting style has changed, but I will say that I am watching closely how this category goes.

That said, here’s a rundown of what all 15 shortlisted docs are about:

• Chasing Roo — about kangaroo harvesting in Australia (also by a two-time nominee who’s been nominated for his previous two docs)
• Death by Numbers — girl who was shot in a school shooting prepares to confront her shooter
• Eternal Father — guy who had children later in life prepares to be cryogenically frozen in the hopes of maybe reuniting with his kids one day
• I Am Ready Warden — man on death row prepares to say goodbye to his family and reach out to his victim’s son to apologize
• Incident — recounts a police shooting from all perspectives
• Instruments of a Beating Heart — first-grade girl in Japan (along with her class) has to perform Beethoven at the end of the year and struggles to keep up with the rigors of expectation
• Keeper — single father is diagnosed with cancer and faces giving up his beekeeping
• Makayla’s Voice — autistic girl learns to communicate and begins sharing her voice
• Once Upon a Time in Ukraine — war in the Ukraine as shown through the eyes of the children impacted by it
• Only Girl in the Orchestra — about a trailblazing female double-bassist and the barriers she broke along the way
• Planetwalker — in response to a deadly oil spill, a man undertook a vow of silence and traveled across the country on foot
• The Quilters — follows several prisoners who spend their incarceration making quilts
• Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr — trans legislator fights for trans medical rights
• A Swim Lesson — about a swim teacher who helps kids learn how to swim
• Until He’s Back — father travels to bring his son’s body (he died trying to cross from Morocco to Spain) home to give his family a proper goodbye

I’ll tell you straight up — normally I can tell you what the top six or eight are in any given year. I can see like 12 this year that can easily make it on. This category has everything (*insert Bill Hader gif here*): Environmental themes, school shootings, death row redemption story, police shootings, the overbearing pressure put on children in Asia, guy overcomes cancer to keep bees, children overcoming the war in Ukraine to be kids, trailblazing woman doc, autistic girl overcomes her illness to communicate, prisoners overcome their circumstances to make quilts, trans rights, migrant crisis (plus a story that would make a good film, which they love). This shortlist is stacked for things they love to nominate here.

Honestly I think you just gotta go for it and hope for the best. I assume I’m gonna get 2 right in at least one of the Shorts categories each year. Usually I figure it’ll be Live Action Short. But damn, it could be this one.

I feel pretty certain that Seat 31 won’t get nominated. The message is good (trans people deserve rights), but the doc is slight and I’m not really sure what is being accomplished other than showcasing its main character more than its issue. I think voters will reject it on that basis. Eternal Father — I just can’t bring myself to think they’re gonna give a shit about a guy who’s gonna go into cryo. Just gonna let it happen. Keeper — haven’t seen it, but feels slight to me. (Also keep in mind, there is always at least one doc I outright dismiss each year that makes it, so do with that information what you will.) Planetwalker — I’m leery of docs about people, and there’s another one that feels way more likely than this. It’s environmental rights, sure, but guy who went out walking… I worry they’re gonna dismiss it. It feels unlikely to me.

The Quilters — five years ago I’d have called this automatic. Prisoners overcome their circumstances to sew quilts. Haven’t seen it, so I can’t say for sure how it might play, but nowadays, this feels like the kind of thing that I always guess that they always leave off. So I think I gotta go away from it and let them pull me back in by voting for it. Still obviously a contender, just… I’ve got beaten too many times on stuff like this in recent years. I need to see them go back to that well.

I shy away from the mainstream stuff here, so Makayla’s Voice, while very obviously something that you’d think would make it, is one that makes me shrug. It feels designed to get this nomination. And while that’s worked in recent years, I feel unmoved. So I’m not guessing it. Just gonna let it happen. Also, Only Girl in the Orchestra. Great idea. Not sure they care enough about it? Feels like a red herring that’s gonna be shortlisted only, and I can’t quite put into words why that is. So I’m leaving it off.

After that — eight docs, five spots. Incident is an incredible doc that I can’t imagine they leave off. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine has both the emotional element and the title going for it, so I’m putting that on. Until He’s Back — they just love docs that can become features, and while I wasn’t overly moved by it, I know that there’s always one doc I wanna dismiss that they nominate. Plus, with the IDA nomination, let’s put it on and see what happens. Instruments of a Beating Heart is one I’d normally race to put on, which tells me to leave it off because it just feels like they’ll leave it off. Again, can’t put into words why I think that, but it does.

That’s kind of what you have to do here, when everything fits, thematically, what they like. Just take stuff off. Death by Numbers, sight unseen, I’m treating as a red herring. I’m worried that I haven’t heard more about it, which tells me it might not actually be all that great a doc and is there for other reasons. So let’s see if they take it, I’m leaving it off. Swim Lesson feels exactly like the kind of doc they’d put on their list, and I really wanna put it on, but… I Am Ready, Warden has the title and everything about it that fits for them, and Chasing Roo is by someone whose last two docs got nominated. I have to guess those. So we’ll leave Swim Lesson as the alternate, but I’m feeling that one gets on.

It’s Doc Short, so I expect 2/5 and hope for the best. I’ve got no real deep analysis here.

Best Documentary Short

Chasing Roo

I Am Ready, Warden

Incident

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

Until He’s Back

First Alternate: A Swim Lesson

Dark Horse: Instruments of a Beating Heart

Surprise: Death by Numbers, The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Shocker: Makalya’s Voice: A Letter to the World, Planetwalker, The Quilters

Don’t Guess: Eternal Father, Keeper, Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr

Would love to see: As long as Incident gets on, I’m happy.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Live Action Short.

Shortlist:

Anuja
Clodagh
The Compatriot
Crust
Dovecote
Edge of Space
The Ice Cream Man
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
A Lien
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The Masterpiece
An Orange from Jaffa
Paris 70
Room Taken

Of all the categories, this one’s the most random a lot of the time. It pretty much comes down to what people are going to respond to. Sometimes you get a really obvious one that’s gonna get nominated, but otherwise it’s just about what you think they’re gonna respond to.

I’ve seen 12/15 here (haven’t seen Anuja, Clodah or The Ice Cream Man). Room Taken was nice enough. Paris 70 was fine. An Orange from Jaffa I liked, even though I didn’t think it stuck the landing. The Masterpiece was quite good. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent was solid, but a bit slight. A Lien was great. The Last Ranger didn’t do it for me. I’m Not a Robot was fun. Edge of Space was meh. Dovecote looked nice but otherwise felt hollow to me. Crust I enjoyed. The Compatriot was decent.

I have zero fucking clue what to do with this. I can swap out most of this category right now and feel just as okay about my choices. Zero fucking clue, seriously.

I feel most confident about Clodagh, sight unseen, because that feels like the kind of short that wins this category. After that — I feel confident that The Last Ranger and Edge of Space are not their cup of tea. I feel pretty confident about Anuja, also sight unseen, because on feel alone, that feels like a nominee. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent feels too on the nose a title, but the premise feels right. So I’m gonna say they do it. An Orange for Jaffa also feels like an easy inclusion for them.

After that — I don’t buy Dovecote as a nominee, so we’ll see. I’m leaving it off. Room Taken and Paris 70 feel like variations on themes we see shortlisted every year. The Compatriot… ehh. Ice Cream Man I can’t speak to at all. So really, it’s Crust (which fits the mold of the quirky Scandinavian film that seems to get nominated every year), A Lien or I’m Not a Robot. I feel like they’re gonna want to go light somewhere, so I’m going with Crust over I’m Not a Robot. Honestly, just sort of winging it and hoping for the best here. I’ve got no real analysis for you because I’m short on time.

Best Live Action Short

Anuja

Clodagh

Crust

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

An Orange from Jaffa

First Alternate: A Lien

Dark Horse: I’m Not a Robot

Surprise: The Ice Cream Man, Paris 70

Shocker: Dovecote, The Masterpiece, Room Taken

Don’t Guess: The Compatriot, Edge of Space, The Last Ranger

Would love to see: Me go 5/5 here.

– – – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – – –

Animated Short.

Shortlist:

Au Revoir Mon Monde
A Bear Named Wojtek
Beautiful Men
Bottle George
A Crab in the Pool
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Maybe Elephants
Me
Origami
Percebes
The 21
Wander to Wonder
The Wild-Tempered Clavier
Yuck!

Again, no precursor data here. There are some, but whatever. Just see as many as you can and do your best from there. This year’s interesting because there’s zero clear choices and no Disney/Pixar shorts (which have declined to zero in recent years). Curious to see what they do without the obvious stuff.

I’ve seen all 15 of these, which doesn’t help much, because I felt underwhelmed by most of them.

As I should probably say with all Shorts categories, you can ignore the ‘don’t guess’ tab, because there’s very little that doesn’t have a shot.

Let me start by saying, The 21 is a documentary short told via animation, and that feels odd for them, so I’m just gonna let them do that. Me is Don Hertzfeldt, the genius who has brought us such amazing an anarchic shorts (most recently the World of Tomorrow series). I have no faith in them nominating him, so I’m absolutely leaving him off and hoping they put him on. Beautiful Men — every year I dismiss a short and every year that short gets nominated. This is the one for me this year. I don’t see it at all, which means it absolutely will, but I also absolutely will not guess it under any circumstances. Percebes was an awesome short that feels on the cusp. I feel like that’s gonna get squeezed for me even though I absolutely can see that making it. In the Shadow of the Cypress is a lovely short that I’m also just leaving off because other ones feel more likely to me. No real reason there.

Okay, now from the other end. The Wild-Tempered Clavier and Origami are the best two pieces of animation in this shortlist and if neither are nominated, it will be a crime. Wild-Tempered Clavier for sure. Origami I can maybe be okay with because it’s so short. In fact, let’s not guess that because of that. I know this branch. And while Origami is great, it’s not Fresh Guacamole great. But Wild-Tempered Clavier is a must guess. I also feel like Wander to Wonder fits with what they like, so I gotta put that on too. And Maybe Elephants… the director was nominated previously for a short just like it, so let’s go there. I need a ‘safe’ choice. Au Revoir Mon Monde has that emotional button at the end they like, so let’s put that on too.

Otherwise — Yuck can work. Cute kids one. Bottle George is a bit serious, but has a lot of nice themes in it. Magic Candies is cute and fits with what they go for… fuck this is tough. A Bear Named Wojtek is one I want to dismiss but is also the kind of thing they’ll just up and nominate. Oh, and Crab in the Pool. Actually, the animation on that is quite nice. So let’s take that.

Again, I’m assuming 2/5 here, so I’m just straight up not bothering to think hard about this, because it’s all up to chance anyway. But with what I have, I feel like I’m in a good position to catch maybe 3, which is all I can hope for.

Best Animated Short

Au Revoir Mon Monde

A Crab in the Pool

Maybe Elephants

Wander to Wonder

The Wild-Tempered Clavier

First Alternate: A Bear Named Wojtek

Dark Horse: Magic Candies

Surprise: Bottle George, Yuck!

Shocker: In the Shadow of the Cypress, Origami, Percebes

Don’t Guess: Beautiful Men, Me, The 21

Would love to see: Origami and Wild-Tempered Clavier both make it on.

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Right now, based on what I’ve picked, this is the nominations breakdown:I looked at the overall view of what I picked, and just about everything is in line with the general range I’d expect to see most of the films come in at. Sure, some can overperform, others can underperform, some can overperform while still keeping the other films within their ranges. But if my gut, just thinking overall about this, said “Conclave 8-10, Emilia Perez 9-11, Brutalist 8-10, Dune 5-7, Complete Unknown 5-7, Anora 4-6, Wicked 6-8, etc,” and then I actually picked and everything fell within that range, that tells me that I have what feels like a pretty good handle on all this. Sometimes you know a film is gonna end up 8-10, but you get to every category and somehow picked it for 12 nominations. And you just know it’s gonna miss some of those. Sometimes you can’t guess which (which almost certainly means Editing and Screenplay), and sometimes you just gotta overguess to cover your bases.

But I’m all about process over results at this point (because I’m 15 years in doing this publicly and 25 years doing this for sport). There is nothing I need to prove to myself. I’m just trying to do a little better each year and trying to break my own bests. That’s it. That’s the only goal. But even if I miss stuff, as long as I feel good about the steps I took to get there, and I feel the reasoning was sound, I’m okay. So whatever we get tomorrow, as long as I do reasonably okay, and as long as I don’t look at more than a small number of nominees and go, “How did that happen/how did I miss that?”, it’s all good.

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