We’ve got our nominees.
Last year (and probably the year before), I felt like I had zero time to prepare or get things in order, and I basically went into predictions cold and just sort of guessed, wrote it out once and left it at that. This year, I knew I wasn’t gonna bother putting up all the precursors as they came in and instead just built my predictions as we went along. So at least I was able to put thought into most of it. I will say, though, very little time and effort went into the Shorts categories. And boy, does it show (we’ll get to it).
I watched the nominations as they happened this morning, and very little made me surprised. Which I guess is what I hope for when doing this every year. The most I saw was ‘oh, that got left off there and that got on there’. Nothing like, “Where the fuck did that come from?” But I also saw them, made mental notes, then went on with my day and completely forgot about everything for 12 hours. So I’m only now just sitting down to process everything. So let’s see how this all shook out and what actually things of note are worth mentioning.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Yeah, okay, this all tracks. We all pretty much knew 8/10 of this list cold. The bottom two were always the two that were gonna be up for discussion and open to swaps. I ended up guessing A Real Pain and Sing Sing, without much feeling for either. Neither felt like a great choice. A Real Pain never felt right to me and Sing Sing felt more ‘I guess this makes sense because of the other nominations’. I’m glad I never fully bought into September 5 (though the threat of it being here did get me to put it on Screenplay, which very much worked out in my favor). I’m also glad I figured All We Imagine as Light wasn’t getting any traction, because that would’ve really surprised me. By the end I did feel like I’m Still Here was the more likely foreign one to get on, but I didn’t have enough time to chew on it and potentially convince myself to take it. That’s fine. Mostly that just tells me that, yes, the foreign nominee is usually the way to go there. And Nickel Boys over Sing Sing makes total sense because it feels like the film that was gonna have more fervent support for it. And, even without having seen it yet, it feels like it’s probably the better film to have included.
In terms of the list, I think they did pretty well for what is otherwise a weak year for film. I haven’t finalized a top ten list yet, but this feels fairly in line with films at or near the top of my list (and by near I mean, top two tiers. Not like, top 15). I don’t necessarily feel like anything was majorly ‘snubbed’ here. Sure, I loved other stuff that’s not here, but I also don’t know if some of that stuff needed a Best Picture nomination. Like Nosferatu. What would that have gained by being here? Pretty sure just existing, like all of Robert Eggers’ films, is enough for that movie. So yeah, this seems fine enough. And the season has given us this handful of movies, for the most part, so it’s not like we should be surprised by most of this.
I’m Still Here gets on without a precursor, by the way, making that just the 5th film since 2009 to do that. PGA also went 8/10, which is about in line with how they usually do. Last year’s 10/10 was the outlier, not the norm. The PGA is now 127/146 (just about 87% all time), so they’re still the best marker there is.
You know what’s also interesting about this crop of Picture nominees? They’re all long. The shortest is Conclave at 2 hours. Everything else? 139 minutes, 215 minutes, 141 minutes, 166 minutes, 132 minutes, 136 minutes, 140 minutes, 141 minutes, 160 minutes. In an era where people love to complain about films over 90 minutes, I’m glad these films are longer. There’s a fucking intermission nominated this year. (And arguably, the intermission is something maybe we should consider bringing back as a thing anyway.)
I went 8/10 here. My Dark Horse got on and one of the ‘surprise’ films got on. I’m very okay with all of this, because this is essentially 4/5 in two categories, which is what I want across the board.
Looking ahead, because all it’s been about before now is what’s gonna get nominated. Now we’re at what’s gonna win. And boy I have no fucking clue. Reasonably speaking, only about four of these have any real shot at this: The Brutalist, Conclave, I guess Emilia Pérez, and Wicked. Anora is along for the ride and may be the film that goes 0-fer with 6 nominations (there’s always one. Moneyball was a film like that). Dune, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys and The Substance have no shot. And A Complete Unknown won’t win, but it’s happy to be here (and also may go 0-fer as well).
Based on what I’ve seen so far, it feels like Conclave or The Brutalist. But as we’re gonna see in a second, Conclave just took a pretty big hit. Not a major one, because that’s happened twice recently (Green Book and CODA both won without a Director nomination), but one. Emilia Pérez doesn’t feel, despite the nominations, like it’s got the kind of support that’ll carry it through. BAFTA’s gonna tell us a lot. The PGA, sure, too, but BAFTA’s the one I wanna see this year. Conclave feels like your frontrunner now, until I see more of these precursors come in. Wicked doesn’t feel like it’s gonna have the legs to pull it off, but I also can’t fully rule it out either, given how it did.
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
So the DGA goes 4/5 like usual, but not the way we expected. James Mangold gets on, but Edward Berger gets left off. Which is insane to me. The man directed All Quiet on the Western Front and this back-to-back and has zero nominations to show for it. WOW.
Anyway, the big news here is that we do get a woman on the list. Congratulations Coralie Fargeat, it’s a richly deserved nomination (also everyone please go see her previous film, Revenge, it’s amazing. That movie was in my top 20 the year it came out. I fucking love that movie). Also, James Mangold, a man who has made a lot of great movies, finally gets this type of nomination. I’m so happy for him. People forget the bangers that man’s directed — Cop Land, Girl Interrupted, Kate & Leopold (hugely underrated rom com), Identity, Walk the Line, 3:10 to Yuma, Knight and Day, The Wolverine, Logan, Ford v Ferrari, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Arguably not a single miss in the bunch (even if they’re not all defined hits). Sean Baker also finally gets recognition by the Academy (three times, which we’ll get to) after years of snubs (the Florida Project omission still stings, even though that year’s Screenplay category was stacked). So I’m happy for him. Brady Corbet being here is fucking wild to me and I’m so happy about it. Audiard — while you can feel how you want about the film (and I’m of two minds on it. I appreciate the filmmaking aspect of it and just the boldness of what he did, I do also have some reservations about how the final product comes across to the people of the place it’s depicting), the man is a great director. So I’m happy for him, the filmmaker, even if his movie is understandably hated by a lot of people for the right reasons. There’s a lot of compartmentalizing that has to happen with this stuff, unfortunately.
I do feel bad for Edward Berger, though. He deserved to be here. Also, and I know it was never going to happen, but Jane Schoenbrun put forth one of the best efforts of the year with I Saw the TV Glow, and I do wish the voters’ field of vision expanded just a little bit more. Also, just on a practical level, are we also just gonna ignore that Luca Guadagnino had two really great efforts this year? I feel like no one mentioned that at all throughout this race. Also shout out to Robert Eggers for being himself. And, while it’s easy to take greatness for granted, I also want to shout out George Miller and Denis Villeneuve. Just because they pulled off the impossible again doesn’t mean it’s any less impressive the second time.
Anyway, I went 4/5 here. Didn’t think it would be this way, but it’s still a 4/5. I can live with that. My Dark Horse made it on. Cool. More upset about the logistics than I am about the 4/5.
Without Berger here, I have to imagine this race is now between Corbet and Audiard. Baker feels so unlikely, Fargeat would be a cinderella story if she started picking up awards and Mangold feels like this is the reward. I wanna see where these precursors go. Corbet’s out in front after the Globes, but Audiard can take it all back with one big win.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Yeah, okay. Daniel Craig just kind of hummed along in a film with no support. It made sense they left him off. Performance was great, though. I just wasn’t sure Stan was gonna galvanize support for one particular performance. The other performance, by the way, is better, but he’s nominated, and that’s enough. Between the two, he deserved something. And clearly BAFTA led the way on this, because even if they weren’t the ones casting most of the votes, they helped funnel people toward that performance as the one to take. They also left Craig off their list, which probably should’ve been the tell.
This is an awesome list, actor-wise. And the performances here are all very good. I think this is Brody’s to lose at this point, unless Chalamet starts stacking wins. Maybe we can all coalesce around Ralph Fiennes. We’d all like that. But clearly it’s Brody and Chalamet until proven otherwise.
This was a pretty set category most of the way, so there’s not much else to talk about. I went 4/5 and my First Alternate got on. That means the obvious pretty much happened. Adrien Brody, by the way, if he wins, is gonna have a Vivien Leigh-like career at the Oscars. Two wins, two nominations, a long time apart. Hers were 1939 and 1951. His would be 2002 and 2024.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
I feel really good about this one, because I stuck to my guns throughout this race. I stood by Torres the whole time, because that Globes win does mean a lot. It’s essentially never happened that the Globes winner didn’t get nominated in the end. The two times it’s happened were the biggest technicalities you can possibly have (third person in a three-way tie and person who won, just for a different film, which they also won for at the Globes that year). This has nothing to do with Marianne Jean-Baptiste (who is amazing and I’m sure is amazing in that film, which I’ve yet to see), this is purely just about the analysis and the numbers and history. I saw no support anywhere for that film that made me think it could go anywhere, meanwhile I had legitimate reason to think I’m Still Here did have support, which is now evidenced by the three nominations.
Anyway, Karla Sofia Gascon being nominated is awesome from an inclusion standpoint. Moore is awesome because we love Demi Moore. Erivo now has three nominations (two for acting, one was for Song), so that’s cool. Madison is a nice inclusion and I hope this leads to bigger and better things for her (though Baker’s films tend to be a bit limiting for his actors because they end up getting typecast in their parts. But she was already on the rise before this, so I’m sure she’ll be fine. She doesn’t seem like the kind of person that’s gonna rush into Marvel and a lot of shit movies with big budgets). Torres, I love as a nominee, because the only other Brazilian actress to be nominated for this award was her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, in 1998, in a film also directed by Walter Salles. How can you not feel great about that?
I went 5/5 here, and this is one of the categories I feel best about on this whole ballot. So that’s great. As for the future, it sure looks like this is Demi Moore’s category to lose. Torres can’t get any more precursors, so unless we get a major split moving forward, I’m not sure she can pick up too much ground. But — Madison’s nomination is clearly the reward there, Erivo’s not winning, and Gascon seems very unlikely. Moore looks like she might sweep the rest of this way (she could lose BAFTA, but if she wins the others, we know what’s up). Crazy that Demi Moore’s gonna win an Oscar, but it’ll be well-deserved (that one scene where she’s getting ready for the date alone…). I know it’s too much to hope for, but wouldn’t it be awesome if somehow Bruce Willis was in good enough condition to be able to come out to announce it?
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
This was another 5/5 for me, and this felt like the right category all along. I never trusted that they’d nominate Clarence Maclin (though they technically did, which we’ll get to) in that fifth spot. And after Stan got nominated for The Apprentice, you knew Strong was not far behind (and yes, I realize they announced it before, but still). Everyone else was here the whole way, so there’s not much to talk about there.
I’m fascinated by this category, because it’s set up for Kieran Culkin to sweep it. And I arguably think he’s the fifth best performance in this category. But Borisov’s not getting any real support. Norton never seems to be in the right position to catch votes. Pearce… maybe he can pull something off, but it feels unlikely. And Strong… I don’t know. The performance is great, but will he get wins? Feels like Culkin’s gonna sweep this. The man’s a great acceptance speech waiting to happen, and that’s only gonna help his case. I don’t see it myself, but I’m not here to make the decisions, I’m here to say who’s gonna win. And it sure seems like he’s gonna sweep this one at this point in time.
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
This was a surprise. Turns out that SAG support for A Complete Unknown and Monica Barbaro was wholly warranted. I also feel pretty good about when I walked out of the theater three years ago after seeing Top Gun and saying ‘those two (Barbaro and Glen Powell are gonna be huge fucking stars’. Didn’t take that long, huh? Thrilled for her. The performance is really good too. She won’t win, but the nomination at least puts her in a place where she can do a lot of awesome stuff moving forward. Also really happy for Zoe Saldana. She’s been plugging along in stuff for a long time and never really gotten her due. Hell, Avatar. She’s the heart of those movies and no one really gives her credit for that. So I’m very happy for her.
Ariana Grande being nominated might sound weird in the abstract, but it’s a wholly deserved nomination. It’s a really good and committed performance. Not supporting in the least, but they do that. On the other end of the spectrum, Isabella Rossellini — thrilled for her, getting nominated after all these years — also barely in that movie. But okay. And Felicity Jones, she’s great, love her. But this is her second nomination and she feels like an afterthought in both categories. And that’s a shame.
I went 4/5 here, and one of my surprise guesses got on. Truly wasn’t expecting them to nominate Barbaro. But I do need to mention the other half of this — I am fucking thrilled they didn’t nominate Jamie Lee Curtis. I’m on the fence about Rossellini’s performance as it is (since I’m not sure what that role really accomplishes in that film as constituted — couple more scenes and a more defined importance could’ve actually made that a legitimate win contender for me), but Curtis’ performance would have fucking shocked me as a nominee. So I’m glad that not only did they not go there but that I had the strength to not give in because of the SAG and BAFTA nominations and guess her. Also very sad for Margaret Qualley. That performance deserved to be here.
Zoe Saldana seems like she’s gonna take this one all the way home. I don’t know if anyone can beat her at this point. With some more screen time, Rossellini could’ve made a play for it (though it’s possible she pulls off something like her mother did — exactly 50 years ago — and wins this category with insanely little amount of screen time. So think about that one). Seems like Zoe’s just gonna roll, and that might be one of the only wins Emilia Pérez actually gets (because I don’t see, unless it’s winning it all, how it comes away with more than like, 3 wins at most).
Best Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
I did real well in these Screenplay categories. Perfect 5/5s in both. That’s awesome. Part of that was abysmally weak fields this year. But I’ll take what I can get.
I do want to credit September 5’s PGA nomination for making me realize there’s more support out there for it and swapping it on at the last minute over Mike Leigh and Hard Truths. The minute I realized I was never taking it in Actress I saw no reason why I should’ve left it on here, and that made all the difference. Because the other four were locks. Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance were all but guaranteed. And A Real Pain seemed pretty likely (especially now that they left it off Picture. This was the reward for it). The only other sort of contender out there was Challengers, which… you see what they did to that. So yeah, this wasn’t too surprising a category.
I’m curious what wins this. I can see any one of four taking it. September 5 won’t win. I can see them maybe voting for A Real Pain. The Substance could catch votes, but feels unlikely without heavy precursor support. Anora is sneaky, but feels unlikely just on face value. Maybe it’s The Brutalist and maybe the answer is the obvious because they’re gonna vote for it for Picture, Director, Actor and Screenplay. Maybe that’s the answer. I guess we’ll see how it goes.
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Another 5/5. This one I’m happy about because I correctly felt that they were gonna leave Dune off. Because why would they need to nominate it here again? So I’m happy about that. I also correctly figured the musical was not gonna get anywhere near this. And we got what I feel is actually a really nice and a really strong category. Clarence Maclin, by the way, is nominated for this award, because he gets a story credit on it. So that’s a nice consolation prize. RaMell Ross also gets nominated here (and in Picture), which is nice too.
Conclave should win this pretty handily. I don’t see how anything competes with it. Peter Straughan, who wrote it, by the way, also co-wrote and was nominated for Tinker Tailor. So dude knows what he’s doing.
Best Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Surprised I managed 4/5 in Editing. I thought they’d go wilder. I did say that I thought Dune was gonna get left off. And here we are. And my First Alternate? Wicked. I thought they might be a little more adventurous than that, but still, this is all within expectations.
What this tells me is that the top three films are gonna be The Brutalist, Conclave and Emilia Pérez, and I’m still assuming either The Brutalist or Conclave wins Best Picture. This award, though. Legitimately can go any one of four ways at this point in time. You make me choose right now and I’m saying Brutalist or Emilia Pérez wins this, but I wanna see where the guild and BAFTA go first.
Sean Baker, by the way, was nominated for Screenplay and Editing, so that would be an interesting hat trick for him to pull off. He interestingly was not listed as a producer on the nominees, so he doesn’t get the full haul.
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
And yet this is the category they got weird, huh? Okay.
Where to start… I went 3/5 here, which I can’t remember the last time that’s happened for a Cinematography category (and I don’t care to look it up. It feels like a while. Both a surprise and shocker made it on. One wasn’t that much of a surprise. The second one was.
First, they got three very much right — The Brutalist, Dune and Nosferatu looked great. I honestly thought they could possibly leave Dune off here, but I’m happy they didn’t.
Now… Conclave being left off here is crazy. Also, haven’t seen it yet, but Nickel Boys… I feel like we’re gonna look back on that one as a bad decision.
In terms of the inclusions — Maria is Ed Lachmann, and after he got nominated last year, you shouldn’t be surprised that they got him on this year. This branch is moving toward veteran nominations. The first indicator was the Caleb Deschanel nomination in 2018. Now, this tells me that stuff like this is the favorite moving forward. Okay, cool. Emilia Pérez, though… wasn’t expecting that one. That also puts it over the top for expectations and moves it to where it ended up (which we’ll get to at the end).
I don’t know what wins this if not The Brutalist. Dune’s not winning again. Maybe they force Emilia Pérez through here for another win. Nosferatu would be a pipe dream (but I’d be okay). Gotta be The Brutalist, right?
Best Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
I knew they were gonna leave that Challengers score off, but I sure as shit was never gonna guess that, so I’ll take my 4/5 here. Because it allows me to say they’ve made one of the most egregious omissions I’ve seen them make in a while. And the music branch is basically known for egregious omissions. My god.
And I did have Wicked as the First Alternate, so I knew what it was gonna be. I thought if anything was getting left off, it would be Wild Robot. But okay, it’s Challengers. Stupid as shit. That was the best score of the year.
Unless they force vote Wicked here in an open vote, I gotta imagine Conclave takes this. Unless they’re gonna vote Emilia Pérez on the songs? Feels like Conclave to me, though. (Also of note, we’re gonna be one precursor shy this year, because the Globes rightfully gave their Score award to Challengers.) Oh, and Wicked also gets on without a precursor, makign it 4th score since 2018 to do that. Just worth noting.
Best Original Song
“El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez
“The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late
I took a bath in this one. But I did end my analysis by saying that I knew “El Mal” and Diane Warren would be my safety nets. And here we are. The second Emilia Pérez song got on, which I probably should’ve guessed. I also had a feeling about “Like a Bird” and just didn’t do it. So that’s my fault. Elton’s also not wholly a surprise to me either.
The reason all of this tracks is because what they left off were a song from The Wild Robot (which was fine, but not great), the Miley Cyrus song (which is openly not very good) and a song from Challengers, which, after Score, you see how they feel about that. So I probably could’ve went 4/5 here with some more thought into it. But whatever. The three that got on were my First Alternate, Dark Horse and one of my two Surprises. So I knew what it was gonna be if not what I picked.
We’re back to now ignoring the precursors in this category, because the precursors feel like they’ve been wildly wrong a couple of years now. Also, “El Mal” is winning this in a landslide. 13 nominations and you think they’re not gonna give it song? Fuck outta here.
Best Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
The tech awards are where I earn my keep. Lotta 4/5s here, as it should be. The one miss was because I left Conclave off. Why? Because it’s contemporary, and I played the odds. I was wrong, and that’s cool. Could’ve gone 5/5 but I stand by my choice. The First Alternate got on, because I knew it was gonna be that. So this is all as expected. Good category, too.
This’ll be interesting to see what wins. Thinking Wicked first, Brutalist second, right? Conclave feels very unlikely, Dune isn’t happening again and Nosferatu feels lucky to be here. Seems like they’re gonna pad Wicked with a couple of tech wins and have it win like 4 in the end.
Best Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Another 4/5. I did have Conclave on here, because I couldn’t justify leaving it off both here and Production Design. The exclusion here was Dune for A Complete Unknown. Which tracks. I did think that fading Dune was the right call, and this was the kind of category where it was gonna get left off. And A Complete Unknown was not only performing strong but also got the BAFTA costumes nomination too. I saw it. It was my First Alternate. This is all right in line with how things shaped up.
Wicked should win this very easily, by the way. I don’t see any competition for it whatsoever. They’re gonna have it walk away with something, and this is, at minimum, that something.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Another 4/5. Emilia Pérez is the one I missed (it was my Dark Horse), because I just couldn’t see them nominating it everywhere. And then they nominated it everywhere. Okay. They left off Dune, again (that’s where that fade comes in), which I can live with. Ultimately this is the most interesting category we could have gotten (though, I haven’t seen the film yet, but I hear the Brando makeup on Billy Zane is crazy good, so potentially justice for that). Ultimately, I’m happy with this one.
What the fuck wins, though. The Substance, right? Though legitimately this can go one of three ways. But given Demi likely winning, the actor/makeup pairing happens a lot. So I gotta say it’s The Substance until precursors prove otherwise.
Best Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Another 4/5. I’m just chugging along here. LOVE to see Alien get nominated. Wasn’t sure they’d do it (I had it as low as a surprise just because it had no real nominations), but thrilled they did. Gladiator gets left off — can live with that. Didn’t need to see it there. Just figured it was more of a Ridley inclusion than anything. Not sure why Wicked belongs here, but given the shortlist I knew it would be.
Dune’s gonna win this in a landslide and rightfully so. But I’m happy with the overall category. At least most of the effects work here is good or at least the films mostly make sense. Wicked’s still a bit of a sneak, but I can live with it.
Also, Alien gets on without the major VES nomination or a BAFTA nomination. That’s rare. That’s very rare. Joins a list of only, now, five films to do that this past decade. But hey, it’s the right choice. So I’m good.
Best Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Another 4/5. I’m killing it with these tech categories. Gladiator gets left off (unsurprising, though I again figured Ridley would hold some sway) and The Wild Robot got on. I had that on my list for a long time and pulled it off last minute and dropped it down to Surprise (which arguably is too low. It should’ve been the Dark Horse or Alternate, given what I actually thought about it), thinking there’s no way they’d go there. But they did. So okay. 4/5. I’m good.
Dune probably wins this, but I can see one of the musicals maybe pulling it out too.
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
This was an easy 5/5. Memoir of a Snail wasn’t a guarantee, but it felt right. The other four were stone cold locks. The only question was whether they’d force Moana or something on instead. But this branch has proven that they prefer something more artistic and ambitious than just standard Hollywood fare, so they remain one of the more interesting branches out there because of that.
Based on the season, Wild Robot should win this pretty easily. Flow’s got support, but Wild Robot got Sound. That beats Animated and International Feature. So Wild Robot seems like a clear winner in this one.
Best International Feature
Emilia Pérez
Flow
The Girl with the Needle
I’m Still Here
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
I was so confident in this one that I thought for sure I’d go 2/5. So I’m happy to know that the confidence was deserved. I’ll take the 4/5. I wasn’t totally sold on From Ground Zero because of the anthology aspect, but also I should have realized that a lot of voters… well, we’ll leave politics out of this. But also that. Flow also getting on feels right, I just didn’t know if they’d do it. So good for them and good for Latvia. I had it rightly as my Surprise, just because I didn’t know if they’d actually do it. I feel good that I didn’t give into the pull of Vermiglio, which I didn’t think actually stood a real chance. And given everything else I saw (which was the majority of the category), I knew most films really weren’t gonna get votes. So the four I got right felt like the right answers. And Flow as the fifth… this is the most obvious category, outside of not being certain they’d go animated. But on just film quality alone, yeah, this tracks.
I don’t need to tell you what’s winning here. If you don’t know that, I can’t help you. (Though I know a lot of people are gonna be pulling for a very particular upset to happen. And while it’s not out of the question, 13 nominations is a lot to overcome.)
Best Documentary
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
There’s only one thing that matters to me here. And that’s the fact that Black Box Diaries got on. I drew my line in the sand on that one, and I’m glad they didn’t let me down. I also managed a 4/5 here, mostly because, having seen the majority of the docs, I fucking knew what the ones were. Sugarcane, Porcelain War and No Other Land were absolute gimmes. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat… I wasn’t sure if they’d go there. And they did. So that’s fine. I went with Dahomey just because of the artistic bend to it. I didn’t particularly think it was a very great doc, so I’m not surprised or saddened to see it get left off.
‘Soundtrack’ was also my Dark Horse, so I knew it was right there, I just think I felt like I was already getting Black Box Diaries wrong (because I had zero faith in them to actually nominate it), so I didn’t want to miss that too knowing it felt unlikely to me. But the inclusion is great. It belongs here.
In terms of winning… gotta figure it’s No Other Land, but we’ll see how the next month goes. I can be talked into something else.
Best Documentary Short
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
I did fucking terrible in the Shorts categories because I kept putting them off. The precursors kept pushing later and later, so I put all my thoughts into those, and then all of a sudden it’s 10 hours before nominations and I gotta write up Doc Feature and the Shorts categories and I just completely ran through and basically ‘eeny meeny’-ed it. So I reaped what I sowed. It’s okay.
I went 2/5 here. Got the Dark Horse on, at least, and both Surprises made it on. So I wasn’t wildly off. I only cared about Incident getting on, so I’m happy there. I Am Ready Warden also felt right too. Death by Numbers makes a lot of sense (and I actually pulled it off my list at the last minute). It’s funny, my last minute changes actually made me go 2/5 instead of 4/5. I had Instruments of a Beating Heart and Death by Numbers both on there. And I convinced myself against them. But shit happens.
I don’t need to get into specifics because I know almost no one actually watched or cares about these docs, but I thought somehow A Swim Lesson would make it on here. So not seeing it feels weird. Also surprised I kept myself from guessing it, too. I’m also… happy’s too strong a word, but I didn’t need to see Makayla’s Voice on here. I get turned off by overly produced docs. So I’m glad they didn’t give in to the temptation there. Otherwise, I thought three of these were among the best of the shortlist, so I’m cool with this. I still haven’t seen a third of it, though, so there’s still work to be done for me to know fully how they did.
In terms of a winner… my heart wants it to be Incident but my head says I’m leaning toward Death by Numbers or I Am Ready Warden. But you gotta get closer to really have a feel. So we’ll see.
Oh, I should also point out that CCA and IDA did nominate four of these across them both, so maybe precursors are gonna start being a thing here moving forward.
Best Live Action Short
A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent
Another 2/5. Ironically the two that I got right were the two that were last minute entries. Well, okay — I had Anuja on for the longest time, then was gonna take it off the last day because I thought, “I guess something like this every year and they always leave it off.” And then I thought, “Fuck it.” So I guess that worked. And The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent just felt, on title alone, like one I had to guess. So I put it on. I took A Lien off last minute. That was clearly a mistake. And I knew I’m Not a Robot felt likely, but ended up going for the other ‘comedy’ type short instead. So okay. A Lien and I’m Not a Robot were my First Alternate and Dark Horse, so they were right there for me. I did have The Last Ranger as a ‘Don’t Guess’, and that’s because I didn’t respond to it. And, like most years, that means nothing. There’s always one I fully dismiss that makes it (I’ll mention that again next category), so I’m not surprised there. It’s Live Action Short. This is where you’re most blatantly wrong.
I thought Clodagh would make it, but I also never got to see it, so I don’t know. Maybe if I saw it I would’ve known not to guess it. Otherwise no exclusion shocks me. I feel good that I knew not to guess Dovecote, but otherwise, sure.
I don’t know what wins this at all right now. Probably The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent, but I’ll wait until it’s guessing time to really think about it. It’s not like there are precursors, so it’s more about where the general buzz goes.
Best Animated Short
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
A 1/5 for me. I had no feel for this one, so this tracks. I did, however, with Beautiful Men — “every year I dismiss a short and every year that short gets nominated. This is the one for me this year. I don’t see it at all, which means it absolutely will, but I also absolutely will not guess it under any circumstances.” I’m nothing if not fully in tune with myself. I say this because I know that even if I can’t help myself, maybe I can help you.
The one I got right was Wander to Wonder, one I absolutely was gonna leave off until I thought, “You fucking moron, BAFTA nominated it and this is the kind of short this category was built on.” And that saved me from a full bagel.
I’m shocked The Wild-Tempered Clavier got left off. That’s a joke. The rest I can live with being left off. I actually went a bit cynical and only guessed Maybe Elephants because the director was nominated before. But — Beautiful Men — I don’t get it. Wasn’t for me. In the Shadow of the Cypress was fine. Magic Candies makes sense and I had it as my Dark Horse the entire way and just never felt the urge to guess it. But I knew it was in line with how they vote. And Yuck — it’s a nice little short, I just never thought they’d go there.
I feel bad for Origami (though I expected them to ignore it). I feel terrible for The Wild-Tempered Clavier. A Crab in the Pool deserved better too. And I kinda liked Au Revoir Mon Monde too. I think they did a weak job with what was already a weak shortlist.
For a win, I guess it’s Wander to Wonder or Yuck. I don’t fucking know what else if not either of them.
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Nominee Breakdown:
- Emilia Pérez– 13 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song x2, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound, International Feature)
- The Brutalist — 10 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Production Design)
- Wicked — 10 nominations (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Editing, Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound)
- A Complete Unknown — 8 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Sound)
- Conclave — 8 nominations (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Production Design, Costume Design)
- Anora — 6 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing)
- Dune: Part Two — 5 nominations (Picture, Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound)
- The Substance — 5 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Nosfeatu — 4 nominations (Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling)
- I’m Still Here — 3 nominations (Picture, Actress, International Feature)
- Sing Sing — 3 nominations (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Song)
- The Wild Robot — 3 nominations (Score, Sound, Animated Feature)
- The Apprentice — 2 nominations (Actor, Supporting Actor)
- Flow — 2 nominations (Animated Feature, International Feature)
- Nickel Boys — 2 nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay)
- A Real Pain — 2 nominations (Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)
- Alien: Romulus — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- Better Man — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- Black Box Diaries — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- A Different Man — 1 nomination (Makeup & Hairstyling)
- Elton John: Never Too Late — 1 nomination (Song)
- The Girl with the Needle — 1 nomination (International Feature)
- Gladiator II — 1 nomination (Costume Design)
- Inside Out 2 — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — 1 nomination (Visual Effects)
- Maria — 1 nomination (Cinematography)
- Memoir of a Snail – 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
- No Other Land — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Porcelain War — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig — 1 nomination (International Feature)
- September 5 — 1 nomination (Original Screenplay)
- The Six Triple Eight — 1 nomination (Song)
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Sugarcane — 1 nomination (Documentary Feature)
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
Looking at this — what immediately stands out to me — Emilia Pérez overperformed slightly from expectations and ended up into an ‘okay, that’s a bit unnecessary’ tier. 13 nominations is among the most of all time. But it’s there. So okay. Wicked overperformed. Didn’t expect Editing and Score and Visual Effects. Complete Unknown overperformed. 7 felt like the cap there. They managed Supporting Actress and Costumes. Conclave underperformed, missing Cinematography and Director. Anora and Brutalist came in right on par with what I expected. Dune underperformed. I expected it to underperform, but 5 is lower than even I thought. I thought it would have made either Costumes or Makeup to get it to 6, but I saw some misses coming. Screenplay, Editing… those are big misses. But we knew it was never in play outside of techs, so it’s not that surprising. The Substance came in as expected. Was hoping for 6, but Qualley did seem like she’d be left off. So that’s on par. Nosferatu came in exact. I’m Still Here overperformed by virtue of the Picture nomination. Sing Sing came in as expected (if not maybe exactly how expected, but 3 was the number there). Wild Robot overperformed for an animated film but came in where I thought it would come in. Nickel Boys did well (even if I was hoping for that Cinematography nomination as #3). Gladiator underperformed. Not from expectations, but from its potential.
Otherwise, are there any truly surprise nominees this year? I don’t think so. Monica Barbaro only in full context. The SAG nomination makes her half expected. Maria in Cinematography? That hardly registers as an eyebrow raiser, let alone a surprise, but that’s kind of where we’re left this year. I think the only surprises here are Emilia Pérez at 13, Dune only at 5 (just because of how precipitous it is) and Conclave missing Director and Cinematography. That’s probably the biggest one of the year. How it missed both of those. But for those to be the surprises… not a lot of crazy stuff happened.
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Okay, now for the reason I’m here… how’d I do?
I went:
- 8/10 in Picture
- 5/5 in Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature
- 4/5 in Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound, International Feature Documentary
- 3/5 in Cinematography
- 2/5 in Song, Documentary Short, Live Action Short
- 1/5 in Animated Short
See, like most years, I come out of nominations going, “I did terribly.” But I see all the 4s and 5s up there and I know I did well. The 2s and the 1 are bad, and probably kept me from contending for my ultimate goal of 80%, but I also know that I’m still around 75% just without even looking. All those 5s cancel out the 1 and I didn’t get a lot of 3s. So I’m fine, in the end. And look at where I did the worst — categories where crazy shit can happen. The only one where a moderate surprise came in to knock me lower than anticipated is Cinematography. That tells me I didn’t fuck up anywhere. I just got beat by chance.
Out of 120 nominees, I guessed 91 of them correctly. That’s 1 better than last year. That’s 75.8%. I needed 5 more correct to get to 80% (which has been the goal since I started). 75% is my baseline. That’s average for me (which, I need to stress — is good. REALLY good). I want to stay at 75% or above. I just aim for 80%. 4/5s as an average is insane. Of course I wanna get there.
And, let me glance… is there any chance I could have gotten there?
Picture, no. Director, no. Actor, unlikely. Dune in Editing… don’t know if I’d actually have done it. Cinematography I’d have guessed that way every time. Score, no (on purpose, but also fuck them for that). Song — probably could’ve picked up 1, maybe 2. I don’t know thought. I definitely could’ve picked up 1 for sure though. I knew what I was doing with that. Production Design I also could’ve picked up 1 as well. Costumes, maybe, but unlikely, because I’d have probably made the wrong choice and still gone 4/5. Makeup, no. VFX, no. Sound, possibly, but unlikely. International Feature, no. Documentary, no (and arguably I oveperformed there as it is). Doc Short maybe 1. Live Action Short maybe 1. Oh, so yeah, it was possible this year. Animated Short I probably wouldn’t picked up anything though. So I likely could have gotten 1 shy. Oh well. Shit happens. I’ll take 75.8%. In 14 years, it’s the 6th best I’ve done, percentage-wise. Also, consider the fact that there are around 120 or so nominees each year and I’m straight up guessing 90 of them. Just hitting 90 as a threshold is nuts. So I’m happy when I can do that. I think that’s the goal each year now. Get to 90, and then hope for 80%.
Previous totals:
- 2023: 75% (90/120)
- 2022: 77.5% (93/120)
- 2021: 72.5% (87/120)
- 2020: 75.4% (89/118)
- 2019: 76.6% (95/124)
- 2018: 74.4% (90/121)
- 2017: 74.5% (91/122)
- 2016: 77% (94/122)
- 2015: 78.5% (95/121)
- 2014: 71.9% (87/121)
- 2013: 76% (92/121)
- 2012: 71% (87/122)
- 2011: 68% (81/119)
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I’ll update my Oscar Trivia page with all these nominations over the next few days.
Past that, you likely won’t hear from me at all until I put up my Top Ten list and then my predictions for the show itself.
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